12月24日，A股三大股指微幅高开，其中沪指涨0.01%报3920.35点，深成指涨0.07%报13378.48点，创业板指涨0.07%报 3207.41点，科创50指数涨0.16%报1342.13点；贵金属板块连日走强，湖南白银涨超3%，山东黄金、恒邦股份、赤峰黄金、四 川黄金、中金黄金等个股跟涨；有色金属板块连日走强，白银有色涨超4%，盛达资源、电工合金、兴业银锡、新威凌、北方 铜业、深圳新星等个股跟涨；风电设备、乳业、海南板块调整；次新股回调明显，N锡华跌超24%，N纳百川跌超23%，N天溯 计量跌超18%。 盘面上，市场焦点股胜通能源（8板）竞价涨停，福建本地股安记食品（16天9板）高开6.38%、鹭燕医药（5板）高开 3.89%，实控人变更的嘉美包装（5板）竞价涨停，商业航天概念股神剑股份（4板）低开3.24%，海南本地股海南发展（3板） 高开7.90%、海南瑞泽（3板）平开、海汽集团（3板）高开2.15%，环保股楚环科技（3板）低开9.89%，洁净室概念股圣晖集成 （2板）竞价涨停、亚翔集成（2板）高开2.09%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, is attributed to a confluence of macroeconomic factors, monetary policy expectations, and geopolitical uncertainties, marking a shift from single-factor to multi-factor driving forces [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 15:00, London gold reached a record high of $4420.07 per ounce, surpassing the previous high of $4381.48 on October 20 [1] - London silver also hit a new peak at $69.45 per ounce, while COMEX gold and silver futures reached $4443.5 and $69.525 per ounce, respectively, both setting historical records [1] - Platinum and palladium also showed strong performance, with platinum rising to $2074.1 per ounce, a 4% increase, and palladium reaching $1796.5 per ounce, also up over 4% [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - The comprehensive rise in precious metals is driven by strong expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, ongoing global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties, which collectively provide a long-term risk premium for precious metals [2] - The activation of market bullish sentiment was primarily due to gold's historical high, which in turn stimulated interest in silver, platinum, and palladium, creating a complete chain reaction from financial attributes to industrial properties [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Future price movements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are expected to diverge, with gold likely maintaining a steady trajectory due to its strong financial attributes, while silver's price will be influenced by industrial demand, particularly in green technologies [2] - Platinum and palladium will be more closely tied to the recovery of the automotive sector and overall economic conditions, with their correlation to gold potentially weakening [2] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Despite favorable macro conditions for precious metals, prices are at historical highs, prompting a cautious approach for investors who should recognize potential risks and align their strategies with their risk tolerance [3] - Investors are advised to view precious metals as a long-term defensive asset rather than a short-term speculative tool, with strategies such as dollar-cost averaging into gold or gold ETFs recommended for building positions gradually [3]

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 金银新高背后，投资节奏或随隐波而分化 ——黄金行业动态跟踪 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫权益端：建议关注资源储量较大、中期铜矿持续扩产存在增量预期的紫金矿业 (601899，买入)，矿产金产量持续改善， 业绩或加速上行的赤峰黄金(600988，买 入)。其他标的：中金黄金(600489，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级) 。 风险提示 国内外宏观经济变化；关税影响预期与产业链稳定性；中美关系变化 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 021-63326320 | | 金铜铝铁权益滞后商品的现象或将改变： | 2025-12-22 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have reached historic highs, driven by global geopolitical changes and investor demand for safe assets [2][3]. Precious Metals - On December 24, spot gold surpassed $4,519 per ounce, while spot silver exceeded $72 per ounce, both setting new historical records [1]. - As of the latest report, London spot gold and COMEX gold futures hit record highs of $4,519.81 and $4,547.5 per ounce, respectively, with both showing over 72% increase year-to-date [2]. - London spot silver rose by 3.43% yesterday and continued to climb, reaching a peak of $72.094 per ounce today, with COMEX silver futures hitting $72.24 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 150% increase year-to-date [2]. - Analysts suggest that factors such as international trade dynamics and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are driving the prices of precious metals, alongside a strong demand for safe-haven assets amid global geopolitical shifts [2]. Base Metals - Copper, regarded as a global economic indicator, reached a new high of $12,159.5 per ton on the LME [3]. - The tight supply situation is expected to support higher copper prices, with emerging demand from AI investments and traditional sectors anchoring price movements [3]. - However, U.S. copper import tariffs may introduce volatility in trading patterns [3]. Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed the A-share market this year, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 87.36% year-to-date, leading among 31 industry indices [4][5]. - The mining ETF (159690) tracking the non-ferrous mining index has seen a remarkable increase of 97.29% this year, indicating strong market performance [4][5]. - Analysts from Dongfang Securities and Ping An Securities recommend focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors, anticipating continued price increases driven by strong demand and weakening dollar credit [4][6]. - The overall profitability of the non-ferrous metals industry has improved, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% in the first three quarters of 2025, and a significant increase of 50.81% in the third quarter alone [5][6].

Group 1 - The A-share market opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.01% and the ChiNext Index up 0.07%, driven by strong performance in precious metals and active semiconductor stocks [1] - Guojin Securities anticipates a window period in 2026, favoring investments in industrial resource products that benefit from AI and global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - The firm also highlights opportunities in consumer sectors such as aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage, alongside non-bank financials like insurance and brokerage benefiting from market expansion [1] Group 2 - Xinda Securities suggests a likely spring rally before the 2026 Spring Festival, with a focus on non-bank financials, electric equipment, and machinery, despite current market adjustments [2] - The firm notes that the foundation for a bull market remains solid, with potential for profit improvement and capital inflow, although external uncertainties persist [2] - The past year's market transition from bear to bull has been significantly influenced by policy and capital rather than earnings [2] Group 3 - Dongfang Securities indicates that the market is currently in a consolidation phase with reduced trading volume, and while there is a slight rebound, upward momentum is limited [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to fluctuate around the 3900-point mark, with trend opportunities awaiting positive signals [3]

原标题：彻底沸腾！涨疯了！创历史新高，50次！ 国内市场同样火热。上期所沪金期货盘中最高触及1018元/克，再度站上"千元关口"；金饰方面，今日 有多家品牌足金饰品报价首次站上每克1400元上方。其中，周大福、周生生报1403元/克，老庙黄金报 1402元/克。 与此同时，沪银期货主力合约突破16500元/千克，创历史新高；广期所铂、钯期货主力合约直线拉升， 双双触及涨停板，成为盘面最亮眼的"明星品种"。 贵金属市场，正在经历一场罕见的"集体狂欢"。 12月23日，黄金、白银等贵金属价格再度全线暴涨，多个品种刷新历史纪录，市场资金情绪被彻底点 燃。盘中，现货黄金最高触及4497美元/盎司，距离4500美元/盎司大关仅一步之遥；COMEX黄金期货 则率先突破4500美元/盎司大关。今年以来，金价已50次改写历史新高。 今年以来，贵金属已成为全球资本市场中最具爆发力的资产之一。截至目前，黄金年内累计涨幅约 65%，白银涨幅更是高达120%，显著跑赢黄金；铂、钯近期加速补涨，本月累计涨幅分别达到42%、 46%。 在期货市场持续狂飙的带动下，A股贵金属板块也掀起期股联动行情。23日，贵金属概念股再度走强， 山东黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a rare "collective frenzy," with significant price surges across various metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Price Surge in Precious Metals - On December 23, gold and silver prices surged, with spot gold reaching a high of $4,497 per ounce and COMEX gold futures breaking the $4,500 per ounce mark. This marks the 50th time this year that gold prices have set a new record [2][4]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures hit a peak of 1,018 yuan per gram, while several gold jewelry brands quoted prices above 1,400 yuan per gram [2]. - Silver futures also saw significant gains, with the main contract surpassing 16,500 yuan per kilogram, reaching a historical high [2]. Performance of Precious Metals - Year-to-date, gold has increased by approximately 65%, while silver has surged by 120%, significantly outperforming gold. Platinum and palladium have also seen substantial gains, with monthly increases of 42% and 46%, respectively [2][6]. - The A-share precious metals sector has mirrored the bullish trend, with stocks like Shandong Gold rising nearly 7% [2]. Macroeconomic Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to macroeconomic conditions, including a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and weaker U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data, which support further rate cuts [4][5]. - Global central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reporting that central bank gold reserves are expected to rise to 36,200 tons by the end of 2024, increasing their share of official foreign exchange reserves from 15% to nearly 20% [6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver, platinum, and palladium are experiencing sharper price increases due to supply-demand imbalances and significant capital inflows. On December 23, spot silver reached $69.98 per ounce, while platinum and palladium futures hit their respective limits [8][9]. - The demand for silver is particularly strong, with a notable increase in COMEX silver delivery notices, indicating a tight supply situation [9]. Future Outlook - Institutions generally believe that precious metals will maintain strong support in the medium to long term, although short-term volatility risks are increasing. The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued warnings about market instability and advised members to enhance risk awareness [11]. - Analysts suggest that while the current bullish trend is supported by macroeconomic factors, caution is advised against chasing prices in a rapidly rising market. It is recommended to wait for pullbacks before making new investments [11].

Market Overview - The three major indices in the market experienced slight gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.41% as of the close on December 23. The total trading volume reached approximately 1.9 billion yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day, although over 3,800 stocks declined [1] Key Factors Influencing Market Performance - The performance of micro-cap stocks has been underwhelming, particularly following a significant drop on December 22, with the number of rising stocks in the market falling below 1,500. This indicates a concentration of market activity in large-cap stocks [1] - Year-end liquidity tends to favor large-cap stocks, with 19 stocks having transaction volumes exceeding 100 billion yuan this year, including Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyisheng, which both surpassed 200 billion yuan in trading volume [1] - The commercial aerospace sector, particularly stocks like Shunhao Co., experienced sudden declines due to the impact of rocket launch variables, affecting market sentiment [1] - ByteDance's plan to invest $23 billion in artificial intelligence is expected to boost related sectors, potentially shifting market focus back to major technology stocks [1] Sector Performance Real Estate Sector - The real estate development sector saw strength in the afternoon, with stocks like Hualian Holdings hitting the daily limit. The national housing and urban-rural development conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and promoting the sale of existing homes by 2026 [2] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector experienced a strong rally, with stocks such as Tianci Materials and Binhai Energy seeing significant gains. The rise in lithium prices and the demand from new energy vehicles ahead of subsidy reductions contributed to this performance [4] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector has been on an upward trend, with stocks like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold rising. The increase in international gold and silver prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, has heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets [5] Hainan Sector - The Hainan sector continued to perform strongly, with stocks like Haixia Co. and Hainan Development hitting the daily limit. The recent launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to boost tourism consumption, with significant sales reported during the holiday season [7] Institutional Insights - Huaxi Securities noted the accumulation of positive factors for a potential "spring rally," suggesting a focus on buying on dips. Historical patterns indicate that a reasonable valuation, a loose liquidity environment, and catalysts to boost risk appetite are necessary for such a rally [8] - CITIC Construction emphasized the need for a "volume reversal + sentiment recovery" signal to identify trend opportunities, indicating that the market is currently in a consolidation phase with weak volume [9] - Zhongtai Securities projected that sectors like brokerage and technology may see structural outperformance in the first half of the upcoming year, driven by expectations of global easing and potential liquidity improvements as institutions reposition their portfolios [10]

消息面上，中国有色金属工业协会锂业分会发布11月锂行业运行情况。碳酸锂期货价格逐步抬升，波动 逐步加大。供应端，市场库存逐步加速去化，宁德时代旗下锂矿消息仍形成扰动。需求端，新能源车在 补贴退坡前抢销量，储能表现亮眼。 贵金属再走强 12月23日，A股三大股指早盘高开高走，午后震荡下跌尾盘一度集体翻绿，截止收盘，沪指涨0.07%报 3919.98点，深成指涨0.27%报13368.99点，创业板指涨0.41%报3205.01点，科创50指数涨0.36%报 1340.02点；沪深两市成交额1.9万亿，全市场近3900只个股下跌。 盘面上，海南自贸概念局部强势，海南海药、海南瑞泽、海南发展涨停；锂电池板块走强，天际股份涨 停；液冷服务器午后拉升，英维克、集泰股份涨停；半导体设备概念反复活跃，圣晖集成、亚翔集成2 连板；有色·钨及有机硅概念活跃，翔鹭钨业、章源钨业双双涨停，三孚股份涨停；商业航天概念冲高 回落，顺灏股份、航天机电跌停；卫星互联网板块下挫，华体科技、中国卫通等多股跌停；旅游酒店板 块走低，曲江文旅跌停；教育板块持续走低，中国高科跌停；今日三只新股均触发盘中二次临停，N纳 百川收涨408%，N锡华收涨2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations on December 23, with the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) rising over 2% at one point, reaching a new high since its listing, driven by significant net subscriptions [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a net subscription of 31 million units, with an estimated net subscription amount exceeding 50 million yuan during the trading session [1]. - The ETF's performance indicators show a year-to-date increase of 87.92% and a 120-day increase of 62.58% [1]. - The ETF's top ten constituent stocks mostly experienced gains, with Shandong Gold (600547) up 6.72% and Tianqi Lithium rising over 3% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The spot gold price continued to rise, nearing $4,500 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70% [5]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 3%, continuing a trend of price increases, with expectations of further price support due to low inventory levels [7]. - Copper prices reached record highs, with forecasts suggesting potential increases to $13,000 per ton in the second quarter of 2026 [8]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The nonferrous metal sector is projected to maintain strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 90% year-to-date, positioning it as a leading industry [12]. - The 2026 outlook for basic metals, particularly copper and aluminum, is optimistic due to expected demand improvements and supply constraints [10]. - The demand for lithium and cobalt is anticipated to grow, with lithium prices expected to continue their upward trend due to supply and demand dynamics [11].