品牌剖析 深度报告 美周新品 数据榜单 行业扫描 成分专研 趋势洞察 ● > #趋势洞察 @ 0 @ � 4 . ● � � . . 66 . . o e . . . . | 0 . . . . 0 . . . . e e 0 . ● "美妆产业 全链逐鹿IPO" 2025年美妆行业资本化的浪潮未歇，2026年开年便呈现密集发力态势：1月内，国货个护龙头半亩花田母公司山东花物堂、功效护肤代表HBN母公司深圳 护家科技相继向港交所递交招股书，此外，多家媒体披露，零售巨头屈臣氏已确定本轮IPO承销商，也意味着港伦双重上市再迈进了一步。 这些最新动态，为早已硝烟弥漫的美妆行业IPO战场，再添了一把旺火。 据用户说不完全统计，2025年至2026年1月已有近40家美妆企业密集发力，剑指A股、港股及美股市场。此次冲刺呈现出全产业链集体出战的态势：从上 游的原料包材商，到中游的品牌与运营商，再到下游的零售及数字服务商，无一缺席。 但繁荣背后，现实却很骨感。成功敲钟者寥寥，绝大多数企业仍身处上市辅导或递交招股书的漫长候场，在资本门槛前徘徊。即便如此，这些先行探路者 的动作，仍为行业提供了关键参照——它们究竟踩准了怎样的资本 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese beauty industry is undergoing a structural "migration" towards capital markets, with over 30 companies from the entire supply chain seeking listings on global exchanges by 2025, indicating a shift from marketing-driven growth to a focus on "hard technology" and globalization [1][6] Industry Overview - By the end of 2025, five beauty companies have successfully gone public, with over 25 others at various stages of the listing process, showcasing a comprehensive coverage of the entire supply chain [1] - The capital market is reassessing the value distribution in the beauty industry, shifting focus from marketing to upstream technology [3][11] Company Listings - A significant number of companies are targeting the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) for their listings, with over half of the firms choosing this market due to its international characteristics aligning with their global ambitions [6][8] - Companies like Pitanium Limited have opted for the Nasdaq, focusing on high-end retail in Hong Kong, indicating a strategic choice based on business alignment and risk management [8] Capitalization Trends - The trend of companies seeking dual listings (A+H shares) reflects a complex capital strategy aimed at optimizing shareholder structure and facilitating cross-border mergers and acquisitions [8][11] - The average R&D investment for companies planning to go public has increased from less than 2% three years ago to 3-5% currently, with leading firms exceeding 5% [9][11] Supply Chain Dynamics - The focus on self-sufficient supply chains has become a priority, with companies recognizing the importance of controlling core raw materials in light of geopolitical changes and supply chain disruptions [11] - The emergence of raw material companies as pioneers in this capital wave indicates a response to industry pain points, aiming to reduce reliance on imported high-end active ingredients [11] Brand Strategies - Companies are increasingly establishing brand barriers through differentiated positioning to attract capital, with notable examples including谷雨 aiming to become the "first domestic whitening stock" and植物医生 targeting the "first single-brand beauty stock" in A-shares [5][11] - The trend of digital transformation in distribution channels is evident, with companies like聚水潭 and凯诘电商 reflecting the urgent need for enhanced operational efficiency and integrated channel systems [11] Sustainability and ESG Factors - Sustainable development and ESG considerations are beginning to influence the capital value of beauty companies, with eco-friendly packaging and green materials becoming competitive advantages [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and others, while Lulu Lemon is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - Duty-free sales have shown exceptional performance, driving growth in the discretionary sector, while Hong Kong consumer stocks have experienced significant declines [4][11]. - The luxury goods sector has outperformed, with a weekly increase of 1.5%, while the retail sector also saw a rise of 1.1% [5][13]. - The report highlights that the overall sentiment in travel-related sectors remains high, contributing positively to the discretionary consumption outlook [3]. Weekly Performance Review - The weekly performance of various sectors is as follows: luxury goods > retail > overseas sportswear > overseas cosmetics > US hotels > domestic sportswear > credit cards > snacks > pets > domestic cosmetics > gold and jewelry > gaming, with respective weekly changes of 1.5%, 1.1%, 0.8%, -0.3%, -0.4%, -2.4%, -2.4%, -2.8%, -2.9%, -4.5%, -4.6%, and -5.6% [11][12]. - The retail sector's growth was significantly driven by China Duty Free, which saw a 7.6% increase due to strong sales during the New Year holiday [6][13]. Monthly and Year-to-Date Performance - Monthly performance shows retail leading with a 4.9% increase, followed by overseas sportswear and US hotels, while domestic cosmetics and gaming sectors faced declines [11]. - Year-to-date performance indicates that overseas cosmetics and US hotels have performed well, while domestic cosmetics and snacks have shown negative growth [12]. Valuation Analysis - The report notes that the valuation of various sectors remains below their average over the past five years, with expected PE ratios for 2025 indicating significant potential for growth [9][14]. - Specific sectors such as overseas sportswear are projected to have a PE of 31.2 times, which is 59% of the past five-year average, while domestic sportswear is at 13.3 times, 70% of the average [14][15].

Core Insights - The report highlights Qingmu Technology (青木科技) as a leading expert in full-domain operation services and brand incubation, driven by data and technology [2][4][14] - The company has established a high-synergy business model encompassing operation services, brand incubation, and technical solutions, serving well-known brands across various sectors [2][4][14] - Financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 15.1 billion, 19.0 billion, and 23.4 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 30.5%, 26.5%, and 23.0% respectively [4][14] Company Overview - Qingmu Technology was founded in 2009 and has focused on e-commerce operation since 2011, building a comprehensive service model that includes operation, brand incubation, and technology solutions [2][14] - The company has a stable ownership structure, with founders holding 39% of the shares, and a management team with over ten years of industry experience [2][14] - Revenue for 2024 and the first half of 2025 is projected at 1.15 billion and 670 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.2% and 22.75% respectively [2][14] Competitive Advantages - Qingmu Technology's competitive edge lies in its data, technology, and brand matrix, which collectively enhance its operational value [3][4][14] - The data layer includes services across major platforms like Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, and Xiaohongshu, allowing the company to accumulate extensive user behavior and transaction data [3][14] - The technology layer features proprietary systems such as the Qingling AI platform and CRM, which streamline operations and reduce costs [3][14] Business Model and Growth Strategy - The company is expanding its service model from a single service fee to a combination of service fees, distribution price differences, and equity returns, thus sharing in brand growth [4][14] - Qingmu Technology is diversifying its product categories beyond apparel to include trendy toys, beauty products, health consumer goods, and pet food, enhancing its growth potential [4][14] - The company aims to maintain its status as a top service provider on platforms like Tmall and Douyin while increasing its international operations, particularly in Southeast Asia [4][14] Financial Projections - The report forecasts a steady increase in net profit, with expected figures of 1.31 billion, 1.85 billion, and 2.59 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 45.2%, 40.4%, and 40.4% respectively [4][14] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same period are 50, 35, and 25 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the cosmetics industry [3] Core Insights - The cosmetics industry is experiencing stable growth with a slight improvement in growth rates, while profitability continues to show differentiation among companies [11][16] - The average revenue growth rate for the cosmetics industry in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 was -8.4% and -2.1%, respectively, indicating a slight improvement in the second quarter [16] - Online sales channels, particularly Tmall and Douyin, have shown a year-on-year growth of 13.1% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand [11] Summary by Sections Cosmetics: Stable Growth and Business Adjustments - The cosmetics industry showed a year-on-year growth of 3.1% and 2.6% in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, respectively, with a significant improvement compared to the -1.1% growth in 2024 [11] - The industry is characterized by a slight improvement in growth rates, with the overall growth falling into a stable range [11] Revenue: Differentiation Among Brands - The average revenue growth for the brand segment was 0.4% and 6.5% in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, respectively, indicating stronger resilience compared to upstream and downstream segments [16] - Mid-sized brands like Maogeping and Shangmei have achieved good growth amidst a stable industry backdrop, while leading companies like Proya continue to grow steadily [16] Gross Margin Trends - The average gross margin for the brand segment increased by 1.6 percentage points in the first half of 2025, driven by improved business structures and effective price control by certain brands [21] - Specific brands like Water Sheep and Beitaini have seen significant improvements in gross margins due to product upgrades and price management strategies [21] Product Innovation: Focus on Core Series and Efficacy Expansion - Brands are focusing on upgrading core product lines and expanding efficacy categories, particularly in sunscreen and whitening, with increased competition expected [25] - New product launches include Proya's whitening series and Beitaini's anti-aging products, indicating a trend towards enhancing product offerings [25] Sales Expenses: Rising Industry Rates - The average sales expense ratio for brands in the first half of 2025 was 44.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points, influenced by rising competition and platform costs [31] - The narrowing of gross sales margins indicates ongoing pressure on profitability across the industry [31]

Group 1 - The beauty industry is experiencing a significant wave of capital influx, with over 30 beauty-related companies expected to pursue IPOs in the first half of 2025, nearly three times the total for 2023 [5][6][9] - The number of beauty companies waiting for IPOs continues to rise, with more than 20 companies rapidly advancing their IPO processes, including 8 companies that made progress in June alone [2][4] - The recent policy changes from regulatory bodies, including the support for quality enterprises in the consumption sector, have created a favorable environment for beauty companies to access capital markets [7][8][16] Group 2 - The beauty industry has seen a drastic reduction in IPO activity during 2023-2024, with only 10 companies listed compared to 17 in 2021-2022, indicating a cold market sentiment [6][7] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has become a popular choice for listings, with many companies, including Ying Tong Holdings and Lin Qingxuan, opting for this market due to its favorable conditions and high international capital recognition [14][16][17] - The competition for being the "first stock" in various segments of the beauty industry is intensifying, with companies like Lin Qingxuan and Gu Yu aiming for significant titles in the market [9][11][18] Group 3 - The beauty industry is entering a phase of high-quality development, with the market size exceeding 1 trillion yuan for two consecutive years, making it the largest cosmetics market globally [20][21] - Companies are increasingly focusing on technological innovation and brand building, which are essential for gaining capital market recognition and achieving sustainable growth [28][30][32] - The future competitive landscape will favor companies that can establish strong research and development capabilities and effective multi-channel operations, as these will be key to long-term success [30][32]

Group 1: Company Analysis - Yonyou Network - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yonyou Network, with a target price of 18.82 CNY, reflecting a dynamic PS of 6.5 times for 2025 [3][4] - In Q2 2025, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 21.82-22.62 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.1% to 10.0%, with contract signing amounts growing over 18% year-on-year in Q2 [3][4] - The company is transitioning to a subscription model, which is expected to impact short-term operations but is anticipated to enhance long-term profitability [3] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Medical Devices - The medical device procurement scale in the first half of 2025 has shown robust growth, with June procurement up 25% year-on-year and a cumulative increase of 41% for the first half [8][9] - The implementation of equipment update policies is expected to drive long-term growth in medical device procurement, with a target of over 25% growth in investment scale by 2027 compared to 2023 [9][10] - Hospital funding pressures are easing, which is likely to support the gradual recovery of medical device companies' performance [10] Group 3: Industry Analysis - Forklifts - The report highlights the potential for rapid development of unmanned forklifts due to advancements in AI and the maturation of supply chains, recommending traditional forklift companies with strong operational quality [11][12] - Unmanned forklifts, which integrate forklift and AGV technologies, are expected to see increased market penetration as their economic viability improves [11][12] - Traditional forklift leaders are well-positioned to benefit from the shift towards automation, leveraging their established sales networks and customer bases [12][13]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][35]. Core Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China for the first half of 2025 reached 24.55 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5%. In June, the retail sales totaled 4.23 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, which was below the expected 8.4% due to the timing of the Dragon Boat Festival and the pre-release of demand during the 618 shopping festival [3][23]. - The beauty care sector is highlighted with significant developments, including the strategic expansion of Ai Er Bo Shi in Southeast Asia and the announcement of a new CEO at Kenvue [27][3]. - Bubble Mart is expected to see a revenue increase of no less than 200% and a profit increase of no less than 350% for the first half of 2025 [32][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, the trade retail, social services, and beauty care sectors experienced changes of +0.23%, +1.05%, and -0.14% respectively, ranking 18th, 13th, and 22nd among 31 primary industries [14][16]. Key Industry Data and News - In June 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8%, with a total of 21.8 trillion yuan in goods retail sales for the first half of the year, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [23][22]. - The airline industry saw an increase in passenger flights, with nearly 118,000 flights executed nationwide in the 28th week of 2025, marking a 3.2% year-on-year rise [4][27]. Company Announcements - Bubble Mart's half-year performance forecast indicates a revenue growth of at least 200% and a profit increase of at least 350% [32][5]. - Other companies like Rongzi Co. and Longzi Co. also reported significant profit forecasts, with Rongzi expecting a profit increase of 31.74% to 55.69% [34][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shangmei Co., Juzi Bio, Marumi Bio, and others within the beauty care and new consumption sectors [5][35].

Core Viewpoint - The beauty industry is experiencing a renewed wave of IPOs, with 28 companies initiating the process in 2025, contrasting sharply with the previous years of "IPO difficulties" [2][12]. Group 1: IPO Trends - In 2025, beauty brands are the main players in this IPO wave, with 8 brands, including Gu Yu and Lin Qingxuan, attempting to go public, although only Puhua Biological has successfully listed so far [4][6]. - Gu Yu signed an agreement with CITIC Securities in March to start its A-share IPO process, aiming to establish itself as a leading player in the market [5]. - Lin Qingxuan submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in May, targeting the high-end skincare segment [7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Gu Yu's projected revenue for 2024 is approximately 4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 40% [5]. - Lin Qingxuan's revenue increased from 691.15 million yuan in 2022 to 1.21 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of about 32% [8][9]. - Lin Qingxuan's gross profit margin has shown a steady increase, reaching 82.5% in 2024 [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The beauty market is entering a phase of stock competition, necessitating fresh capital influx to sustain growth [14]. - The threshold for entering the top ten domestic beauty brands has risen significantly, with the revenue requirement increasing from 1.55 billion yuan in 2021 to 2.97 billion yuan in 2024 [14][15]. - The successful IPOs of companies like Gu Yu and Mao Geping are expected to inject new vitality into the industry [16]. Group 4: Policy Environment - Recent policy changes indicate a loosening of IPO regulations, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission signaling a return to normalcy in the IPO market [12][13]. - The introduction of supportive policies for quality consumer companies is expected to enhance the IPO landscape for the beauty sector [13][20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The current wave of IPOs is seen as a critical turning point for the beauty industry, with the potential to reshape the competitive landscape [22]. - The emergence of "first stocks" in various segments of the beauty market presents significant opportunities for innovation and growth [17][18]. - The attractiveness of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for beauty companies is likely to continue, given its relatively lower regulatory requirements compared to A-shares [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, highlighting innovative business models driving growth in the light medical beauty sector, particularly recommending attention to the company "Xinyang" [2][9]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has underperformed the market recently, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 0.1% from July 11 to July 18, 2025, while the Shenwan Cosmetics Index fell by 0.9%, underperforming the Shenwan A Index by 2.3 percentage points [3][4]. - Innovative business models are driving growth in light medical beauty, contrasting with traditional medical beauty institutions facing stagnation due to high costs and weak consumer demand. Xinyang's high cost-performance ratio, chain operations, and app-based customer conversion model are seen as new growth drivers for the sector [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side innovations in stimulating consumer demand and driving industry recovery, despite short-term macroeconomic challenges [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown weak performance compared to the market, with specific indices reflecting declines during the reporting period [3][4]. - The top-performing stocks in the sector included Zhongshun Jierou (+10.8%) and Juzibio (+6.1%), while the worst performers were Shangmei Shares (-11.1%) and Baiya Shares (-4.3%) [5]. Key Company Insights - Linqingxuan, a high-end domestic skincare brand, has seen revenue growth from 690 million yuan in 2022 to 1.21 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit turning from a loss of 6 million yuan to a profit of 187 million yuan [10][15]. - The company has established a strong product matrix and supply chain advantages, with production capacity reaching 40 million units annually [16][17]. - The report also highlights the growth of the "Plant Doctor" brand, which has achieved a net profit CAGR of 24% from 2022 to 2024, supported by a robust channel network and operational efficiencies [10][12]. Market Trends - The report notes a shift in the cosmetics market from quantity to quality, with a significant increase in e-commerce sales, which accounted for 47% of total cosmetics sales in 2024, up from 22% in 2016 [11]. - The domestic market is witnessing a rise in local brands, with a notable increase in market share for domestic products, reflecting changing consumer preferences and the impact of the "national tide" [11][28]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the overall retail sales of cosmetics in China reached 229.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, although June saw a decline of 2.3% due to promotional timing [21][24]. - The performance of major companies like Meili Tianyuan is highlighted, with projected revenue of at least 1.45 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a growth of at least 27% [24].