华福证券 风险提示 杠杆率估算存在偏差、资金面波动超预期。 团队成员 分析师： 李一爽(S0210525120003) lys30931@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 郭昌辽(S0210525070001) gcl30767@hfzq.com.cn 2026 年 02 月 28 日 固 定 收 益 广义基金减持创近 3 年新高 商业银行主动增配 驱动市场企稳——2026 年 1 月债券托管数据点评 投资要点： 固 1 月债券总托管规模环比上升 7576 亿元，较 12 月多增 4550 亿元。其 中，利率债托管增量 10785 亿元，较上月上升约 3800 亿元，地方债、国债、 政金债托管增量均有所提升；短融券转为净融资导致信用债托管增量上升； 同业存单托管规模环比继续下降 6562 亿元，降幅较上月扩大 338 亿元。 定 收 益 定 期 报 告 1 月国内债券利率先上后下，上旬市场基于对政府债供给以及银行负 债的担忧出现显著调整，相关因素对债市的冲击弱于预期，中下旬以来市 场有所修复。从机构行为来看，商业银行是市场企稳最重要的驱动力量。 除了与银行有关的商业银行、信用社和其他机构外，仅有券商增持债券， ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 马年A股"开门红"如期而至，点燃了市场对春季攻势的期待。 事实上，节前就有多家机构提出"春季行情提前启动"的预判。值得注意的是，为了接住这波"春潮"，不少券商研究所春节前后开启了"连轴 转"模式。 春节期间，有券商直接打出"春节不打烊"的口号，路演日程从除夕排到了大年初七。进门APP数据显示，2月16日至23日，券商研究所合计安 排了292场电话会议，日均超32场。 假期刚过，券商春季策略会又提上日程。节后第二天，天风证券（维权）、西部证券同日拉开春季策略会序幕。近两周内，还有开源证券、东 吴证券等多家券商将陆续召开策略会。 从已披露的会议安排来看，各家策略会呈现出鲜明的差异化定位，有的聚焦科技成长与资源周期，主打"小而美"；有的除了传统的宏观经济分 析，还覆盖商业航天、脑机接口等前沿赛道，尽显"全而新"。 展望后市，在市场活跃度进一步提高的共识下，化工、TMT等多个板块的投资线索正成为券商重点挖掘的方向。 图片来源：本报记者 梁远浩 摄 "春节不打烊" "春节八天不打烊，研究相伴不停歇！"春节前夕，一则券商电话会参会邀请截图在社交媒体 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that securities firms are advancing their spring strategy meetings, reflecting a shift in the industry competition landscape and a transition from a traditional "research for commission" model to a "service for income" model [1][4][5] Group 2 - Securities firms are focusing on emerging sectors such as AI technology and non-ferrous metals, establishing specialized forums to discuss these areas [2] - Analysts predict significant growth in the semiconductor equipment market, with sales expected to reach $145 billion in 2026 and $156 billion in 2027, highlighting China's position as the largest semiconductor equipment market [2] - The commercial aerospace sector is anticipated to undergo transformative changes driven by technological advancements and new applications [2] Group 3 - Investment opportunities for 2026 are emerging, with a clear focus on technology sectors, particularly AI, which is seen as a core driver of market growth [3] - Analysts recommend attention to cyclical and value sectors, including non-ferrous metals and chemicals, due to ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply [3] - Predictions indicate a potential super cycle for oil prices in 2026, benefiting the refining sector, with recommendations to focus on oil and chemical sectors in the first half of the year [3] Group 4 - The early scheduling of strategy meetings is a response to intensified market competition and the need for securities firms to enhance their visibility and influence [4][5] - The shift from a one-way research output to a more interactive service model is driven by the pressure of reduced commissions in the public fund sector [5] - The "early bird" strategy in hosting meetings presents both opportunities and challenges, requiring firms to improve their research responsiveness and service value [5]

"综合看，2月央行通过买断式逆回购和MLF操作，累计净投放中期流动性9000亿元。"招联首席经济学 家董希淼说。 中国人民银行在2月25日开展了4095亿元7天期逆回购操作和6000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作，当日有 4000亿元逆回购和3000亿元MLF到期，由此公开市场实现净投放3095亿元。专家表示，面对近期流动 性集中回笼，央行灵活适度加大流动性投放，保持资金面平稳。后续央行仍将继续综合运用公开市场操 作等多种货币政策工具，呵护流动性处于合理充裕水平。 MLF连续第12个月加量续做 在央行2月MLF操作落地后，当月MLF实现净投放3000亿元，为连续第12个月加量续做，加量规模小于 上月的7000亿元。此前央行已在2月4日和2月13日开展8000亿元和10000亿元买断式逆回购，分别实现净 投放1000亿元和5000亿元，超过预期。 在华福证券研究所所长助理、固收首席分析师李一爽看来，尽管2月24日至2月28日期间央行政策工具到 期规模较大，但在政府债净缴款规模下降、2月税期走款规模相对有限、春节假期后现金回流、MLF超 额续做等因素的共同支撑下，预计资金面整体仍将维持平稳。 2月中期流动性净投放 ...

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Group 1 - The Hong Kong lithium battery sector has seen a short-term rise, with leading companies such as Zhengli New Energy, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and CATL experiencing significant gains due to sustained downstream demand and strong performance in lithium carbonate futures [1] - The export tax rebate policy for lithium batteries will be adjusted starting April 1, 2026, leading to a notable "export rush" effect in the first quarter, with concentrated release of stage-specific replenishment demand [3] - Carbonate lithium futures surged after the Spring Festival, with the main contract on the Guangzheng Futures Exchange breaking through 170,000 yuan per ton, indicating a significant return of speculative funds post-holiday [3] Group 2 - According to a report from Guojin Securities, the upcoming domestic energy storage capacity subsidy policy and new energy vehicle replacement policies are expected to drive a new upward cycle in lithium carbonate prices, benefiting the overall inflation in the industry chain [3] - The pre-production data reflects high industry prosperity, with cumulative year-on-year growth in battery, positive electrode, negative electrode, separator, and electrolyte pre-production in February 2026 ranging from 35% to 60% [3] - UBS has released reports during the Spring Festival, significantly raising price forecasts for spodumene and lithium carbonate, indicating that the global lithium market has entered a third super cycle, driven by the balance of electric vehicle demand and explosive growth in energy storage needs [4]

2月25日，矿业ETF（561330）大涨超4%，工业金属前景向好。 华福证券指出，工业金属行业呈现降息预期博弈，预期震荡。具体来看，铜方面，短期美联储降息预期 仍在，基本面偏紧格局延续支撑铜价；中长期，随美联储降息加深提振投资和消费，同时打开国内货币 政策空间，叠加特朗普政府后续可能宽财政带来的通胀反弹将支撑铜价中枢上移，新能源需求强劲将带 动供需缺口拉大，继续看好铜价。铝方面，短期处于季节性淡季或导致铝价震荡运行；中长期看，国内 天花板+能源不足持续扰动，同时新能源需求仍保持旺盛，紧平衡致铝价易涨难跌。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、稀有 金属等矿产资源开发业务的相关企业证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿采选行业的整体表现。根据 wind数据，2025年全年，矿业ETF（561330）年内涨幅全市场ETF第三，有色类ETF第一，具备龙头更 集中，【黄金+铜+稀土】占比更高的特点。 风险提示：数据来源Wind，矿业ETF2025年涨幅106.11%，在有色板块10只ETF中排名第一。提及个股 仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity in the market through various monetary policy tools, particularly focusing on reverse repos to ensure stability during the post-Spring Festival period [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Operations - On February 24, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 526 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 926.4 billion yuan from the market due to the maturity of previous reverse repos [1]. - In the week leading up to the Spring Festival, the PBOC injected a total of 1.25 trillion yuan in short-term funds through reverse repos, effectively addressing liquidity needs during the holiday [1]. - The PBOC's actions included an excess rollover of 500 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos and a net injection of 100 billion yuan in 3-month reverse repos, cumulatively releasing 600 billion yuan in medium to long-term funds in February [1]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - Despite the seasonal demand for cash and over 700 billion yuan in government debt repayments, the pressure on liquidity was manageable, with overnight rates peaking at 1.46% and 7-day rates not exceeding 1.60% [1][2]. - Analysts expect that post-holiday liquidity will generally ease, with a significant drop in 7-day funding rates anticipated, although the upcoming tax payments and large reverse repo maturities may limit the extent of this decline [2][3]. - The PBOC is expected to maintain a supportive stance on liquidity, with forecasts suggesting that overnight rates may settle between 1.35% and 1.45% and 7-day rates between 1.50% and 1.60% [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The PBOC's recent monetary policy report indicates a commitment to maintaining ample liquidity, with social financing growing by 8.2% year-on-year and M2 increasing by 9%, both outpacing nominal GDP growth [3][4]. - There is a consensus among analysts that the PBOC will likely continue to adopt a loose monetary policy environment, especially in light of weak credit demand and the need to support economic growth [4].

A股马年首个交易日迎来开门红！三大指数集体上涨，沪指涨1.17%报4129.78点，深证成指涨1.82%， 创业板指涨1.76%。沪深京三市半日成交额15210亿元，较上日放量3074亿元，全市场超4200只个股上 涨。盘面上，地缘冲突、美国关税政策不确定性再度引发市场担忧，黄金概念股走强，其中，晓程科技 涨超14%，白银有色、湖南白银涨停，四川黄金、中国黄金涨超8%。 瑞银预计，在更强劲的投资流动和各国央行持续购买的推动下，金价将进一步上涨。供应方面，增长似 乎受限。虽然金价高企可能激励勘探活动，但咨询公司伍德麦肯兹估计，到2028年，约有80座矿山将耗 尽当前的生产计划，这表明短期内供应弹性有限。 整个春节假期贵金属遭遇美国经济数据、全球地缘风险以及美国政局、三重冲击。首先，美国经济数据 喜忧参半：1月份CPI同比上涨2.4%，虽然较2025年底略有回落，但核心CPI仍维持在2.5%。2月份的数 据显示，由于关税政策开始实施，耐用品价格出现了明显的脉冲式上涨。受到关税预期的影响，消费者 在1月份出现了一波"抢购潮"，导致12月和1月的数据波动剧烈。但2月初的数据显示，零售销售增长开 始放缓，反映出高物价对 ...

2026年2月24日早盘，截至11:04，中证细分化工产业主题指数强势上涨2.81%，成分股和邦生物上涨 10.08%，川发龙蟒上涨10.00%，云天化上涨7.35%，兴发集团，钛能化学等个股跟涨。 国海证券指出，反内卷有望重估中国化工行业，后续措施有望使全球化工行业产能扩张大幅放缓。中国 化工行业具有充沛的经营活动现金流净额，一旦扩张放缓，潜在股息率将大幅提升，有望实现从吞金兽 到摇钱树的转变；同时，供给端的改变将带来景气度的止跌回升，化工标的有望兼具高弹性和高股息的 优势。 华福证券认为，随着海内外经济回暖，主要化工品价格与需求均步入修复通道。化工行业龙头企业历经 多年竞争和扩张，具有显著规模优势，且通过研发投入持续夯实成本护城河，核心竞争力显著。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证细分化工产业主题指数前十大权重股分别为万华化学、盐湖股 份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、巨化股份、宝丰能源、云天化、荣盛石化，前十大权 重股合计占比44.82%。 化工ETF嘉实(159129)紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，聚焦行业"反内卷"背景下新一轮景气周 期。 场外投资者还可以通过化工ETF联接基金 ...