Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 4 日星期三 | 研究员： 纪晓云 | | --- | | 从业资格： F3066027 | | 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 | 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢矿: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周二螺纹、铁矿收涨，热卷收跌。夜盘螺纹收平铁矿收跌热卷收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、工信部等六部门：到 2027 年光伏组件综合利用量累计达到 25 万吨。 | | | | | 2、据 Mysteel 不完全整理，截至 2 月 28 日，16 城出台 21 条楼市松绑政策，其中 | | | | | 上海发布"沪七条"，通过降低非沪籍购房门槛、扩大居住证人群购房资格、适度 | | | | | 放宽外环内限购，从政策层面降低入市门槛。 | | | | | 3、上周（2 月 23 日-3 月 1 日），1 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 27 日星期五 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周四螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、2026 年 2 月 18 日，巴西外贸委员会管理执行委员会(GECEX)发布 2026 年第 856 | | | | | 号决议，对原产于中国的镀锌和镀铝锌板卷作出反倾销肯定性终裁，决定对中国涉 | | | | | 案产品征收为期 5 年的反倾销税，税额为 284.98－709.63 美元/吨。 | | | | | 2、2026 年春节前后，中国船舶工业签约捷报频传，多家企业在国际市场斩获多项 | | | | | 重磅订单，涵盖散货船、滚装船、重吊船等多元船型，展现中国造船业的强劲竞 ...

"探索开展人民币外汇期货交易试点"是上海"十五五"规划明确的重点任务，也是期货行业服务实体经济、推动金融开放的关键抓手，标志着人民币外 汇期货试点正式纳入地方乃至国家金融发展顶层规划，进入稳步推进的关键阶段。 "十四五"圆满收官，"十五五"昂首出发。过去五年，上海期货行业借力我国期货市场法治建设、品种创新、结构优化的历史性跨越，持续赋能实体经 济，行稳致远，奠定坚实基础。 2026年，是"十五五"开局起步的关键之年，上海立足国际金融中心、国际贸易中心、国际航运中心建设全局，围绕期货及衍生品市场发展作出系列部 署，明确重点任务，划定发展路径、指明前进方向。 展望新征程，依托国际金融中心建设的深厚积淀，上海期货行业正迎来定位升级、功能强化、开放深化的全新机遇，肩负起更为重要的时代使命。 | | 核心 "上海价格" | 矩阵 | | --- | --- | --- | | 代表价格 | 所属市场 | 核心作用 | | 上海金(SHAU) | 上海黄金交易所 | 全球首个以人民币计价的黄金基准价格,是国际黄金市场的重要参考。 | | 上海铜、上海铝、上海镍 | 上海期货交易所 | 全球有色金属市场的重要定价基准,反映 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 节前尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 5 元至 1833 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1810 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 23025 手至 25.9 万手，空头持仓减少 23967 手至 27.0 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 21.56 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增加 2.10 万吨；开工率 91.56%，较去年同期 86.92%上涨 4.64%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 83.47 万吨，较上周减少 8.38 万吨，环比减 少 9.12%。尿素港口样本库存量 16.6 万吨，环比+0.1。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 36.1%，环比-5.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 60.7%，环比+2.8%。 4、印度 RCF 尿素进口招标，最晚船期 3 月 31 日，共收到 20 个供货商，总计超 307 | | | | | 万吨投标量。东海岸最低报价 CFR512 美元/吨，西海岸最低报价 CFR508 美元/吨， | | ...

春节长假期间，多重因素交织下，外盘商品市场整体呈现普涨格局。其中，地缘风险推升原油，避险情 绪点燃贵金属，二者成为领涨市场的"双星"。 总结春节假期外盘表现，格林大华期货首席专家王骏概括为"普涨、分化、波动加剧"三大特征。大部分 商品上涨行情更多受美伊冲突等宏观因素驱动，能源板块涨势明显，贵金属板块也出现上涨。 王骏认为，假期期间外盘原油的高波动主要受地缘局势升温影响，引发市场对供应中断的担忧，自身基 本面影响其实有限。华闻期货总经理助理兼研究所所长程小勇也表示，每日通过霍尔木兹海峡的原油运 输量超过2100万桶，约占全球贸易量的40%。一旦伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，全球原油贸易将出现部分中 断，油轮被迫绕行好望角，将大幅抬升运输成本。 长假期间外盘贵金属延续节前热度，表现持续抢眼，COMEX白银价格涨幅超过13%。程小勇分析称， 美国最高法院裁定特朗普关税违法后，市场对美国债务问题的担忧加剧，美国国债遭抛售，避险买盘驱 动金银价格大幅上涨。王骏补充说，美国去年四季度GDP环比年化增长1.4%，低于预期，叠加关税政 策的不确定性，使投资者对美国经济前景的担忧加剧，进一步强化了避险逻辑。 大豆等农产品价格走势相对平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment remains turbulent during the Spring Festival holiday, with significant events such as changes in U.S. tariff policies and escalating geopolitical conflicts leading to sharp fluctuations in major asset prices, adding uncertainty to the domestic market's opening after the holiday [1] Market Reactions - During the Spring Festival, international markets experienced notable price movements, with commodities like silver, crude oil, and agricultural products showing significant changes [2] - The price of CMX silver increased by 12.15%, while Brent oil rose by 5.14% and U.S. soybean oil by 4.30% [2] Federal Reserve Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increased internal divisions regarding future monetary policy, with discussions around rate cuts, pauses, and hikes being mentioned [4][5] - Recent data indicates a 3.0% year-over-year increase in the core PCE price index, leading to a reduction in expectations for rate cuts [5][7] Stock Market and Precious Metals Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the U.S. stock market is still in an economic expansion phase, with AI contributing positively to productivity [9] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to continue their upward trend, driven by both financial and industrial demand [11] Oil Market Dynamics - Geopolitical risks are identified as a primary driver of recent fluctuations in global oil prices, with potential military actions against Iran posing risks to oil supply routes [12][13] - The International Energy Agency reports a significant increase in global oil inventories, indicating a potential oversupply situation [13] Commodity Market Predictions - The precious metals sector is anticipated to see substantial increases post-holiday, with silver showing strong potential for recovery due to both financial and industrial factors [15] - The energy sector is expected to respond directly to international crude oil price movements, while the chemical sector may face challenges due to supply-demand mismatches [15] Risk Factors for Market Opening - The market is expected to open broadly higher with structural differentiation, focusing on potential rebound opportunities in precious metals and oil-related products [16] - Key risks include jump gap risks, position changes, and liquidity risks, necessitating cautious trading strategies [16]

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment remains turbulent during the Spring Festival holiday, with significant events such as changes in U.S. tariff policies and escalating geopolitical conflicts leading to volatility in major asset prices, adding uncertainty to the domestic market opening after the holiday [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - The international market experienced significant price fluctuations during the holiday, impacting domestic market expectations for various commodities, with potential for rebound opportunities in certain sectors [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate policies have intensified, with discussions around rate cuts, pauses, and hikes, which could significantly influence global markets [3][5] - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions have shifted, with a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in June, although the overall expectation for potential cuts later in the year remains unchanged [5] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Precious metals are expected to see significant price increases, supported by overseas market trends, although high volatility is anticipated due to potential regulatory measures [16] - The energy sector is likely to experience price increases, particularly in crude oil, driven by geopolitical risks and supply-demand dynamics, despite a general oversupply in the global market [14][15] - Agricultural products, particularly wheat, are gaining attention due to declining inventories and potential for price rebounds, with notable increases in prices for soybean oil and palm oil during the holiday [16] Group 3: Risk Factors and Trading Strategies - The market is expected to open broadly higher with structural differentiation, focusing on rebound opportunities, particularly in precious metals and crude oil [17] - Key risks to monitor include potential gaps in pricing, unusual changes in positions, and liquidity risks, with recommendations for cautious trading strategies [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Nasdaq faces downward pressure, and the downward risk of US stocks will spill over. US stock funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors. It is advisable to exit long positions in stock index futures, reduce equity - type assets, or use short positions in stock index futures to hedge risks or buy put options for protection [4][6]. - China's inflation level moderately rebounded in January. The central bank maintains ample liquidity, supporting long positions in treasury bonds. Treasury bond futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. - After previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of precious metals is narrowing. However, there is still a possibility of significant fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control risks and hold light positions [5]. - For the "Three Oils and Two Meals" strategy, it is recommended to close long positions in double meals before the festival to lock in profits and pay attention to the decline expectation after the festival. For vegetable oils, it is recommended to exit previous long positions, hold light positions during the holiday, and resume trading after the festival [23][29][31]. - For sugar and jujubes, it is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - and long - term, use options for risk control, or hold empty positions during the holiday [24][35]. - For cotton, apples, and logs, cotton is expected to maintain a volatile pattern; apples are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term; logs are expected to have an upward price space [25][36][37][38]. - For corn, hogs, and eggs, it is necessary to pay attention to relevant risks such as grain quality, supply pressure, and chicken culling rhythm after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday [26][39][40][42]. - For crude oil, the price is expected to show a short - term upward - trending volatility before the outcome of the US - Iran situation is determined [49]. - For lithium carbonate, the fundamentals are strong, but it is necessary to manage positions during the holiday [52]. - For methanol, it is in an interval - running pattern, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation during the holiday [55]. - For urea, the price is likely to rise but is restricted by policies. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and domestic demand progress during the holiday [58]. - For pure benzene, the price is expected to show a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and post - holiday demand [61]. - For bottle chips, the price is expected to follow the raw material end in a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and crude oil performance [62]. - For rubber series, it is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to the overseas market [66]. - For steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, and ferroalloys, it is recommended to significantly reduce positions to avoid risks during the holiday [67][68][69][70]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper prices may be suppressed by the strengthening US dollar; for aluminum, alumina, and caustic soda, it is recommended to hold light positions and operate cautiously during the holiday [85][86][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - The rebound of the Nasdaq is a technical pullback after breaking below the semi - annual line. Hedge funds have sold US stocks for four consecutive weeks, and the selling in the first week of February was the most intense since April last year [4]. - Investors are worried that the industry disruption brought by AI may be more extensive than expected, and companies planning to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in AI construction may not meet high - profit expectations. US stock funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors [4]. - It is recommended to exit long positions in stock index futures, reduce equity - type assets, or use short positions in stock index futures to hedge risks or buy put options for protection [4]. Treasury Bonds - In January, China's overall inflation level moderately rebounded. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month [5]. - In January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderate economy in January [5]. - The central bank maintains ample liquidity, supporting long positions in treasury bonds. Treasury bond futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. Precious Metals Gold and Silver - After previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of precious metals is narrowing. The COMEX gold may form an equilibrium at around $5000 per ounce, and the COMEX silver at around $80 per ounce [5]. - However, due to the long Spring Festival holiday and many uncertainties in overseas markets, there is still a possibility of significant fluctuations in gold and silver [5]. Palladium - Before the festival, palladium shows characteristics of spot shortage, high - price volatility, and being dominated by macro - sentiment. The short - term support is strong, but the callback risk is prominent [19]. - It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies, operate cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, and avoid chasing up. Short - term short positions can be tried lightly above 400 yuan per gram [19]. Platinum - Before the festival, platinum prices are highly volatile, in a pattern of tight supply - demand balance and low inventory. The medium - and long - term structural shortage supports prices, but the short - term callback and basis reversal risks are prominent [22]. - It is recommended to operate cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, and avoid one - sided short selling [22]. Three Oils and Two Meals Three Oils - Policy: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the exchange raises margins to control risks, leading to a decline in market trading enthusiasm and downward pressure on the vegetable oil market [29]. - Macro: The US - Iran negotiation results have a significant impact on international crude oil prices, and vegetable oil futures prices will follow to some extent [29]. - Fundamentals: The US biodiesel policy boosts US soybean oil, while Indonesia cancels the 2026 B50 biodiesel plan, pressuring Malaysian palm oil. Domestic vegetable oil Spring Festival stocking is over, and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress is accelerating, bringing pressure to the vegetable oil market [29]. - It is recommended to exit previous long positions in vegetable oils, hold light positions during the holiday, and resume trading after the festival [29]. Two Meals - Policy: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the exchange raises margins to control risks, leading to a decline in market trading enthusiasm [31]. - Macro: China's new round of purchases of US soybeans pushes up US soybean prices, and there are rumors of tightening import grain policies in China [31]. - Fundamentals: The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the expected 184 million tons of production weakens the South American soybean discount. There are rumors of a 5 - million - ton auction of old - reserve imported soybeans after the Spring Festival in China, and the supply pressure is increasing [31]. - It is recommended to close long positions in double meals before the festival to lock in profits [31]. Sugar and Jujubes - Sugar: The recent ICE raw sugar has fallen below the 14 - cent - per - pound integer support, reaching a five - year low. The global sugar supply - demand balance sheet exerts pressure on sugar prices, and the domestic sugar spot trading is stagnant before the festival. It is recommended to use options for risk control or hold empty positions during the holiday [35]. - Jujubes: Before the festival, jujube futures prices rebounded due to the exit of short positions. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing prices. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - and long - term and hold previous high - level short positions during the holiday [35]. Cotton, Apples, and Logs Cotton - The international cotton market is in a loose pattern. The supply shows structural changes, and the consumption is differentiated. The domestic supply is abundant, and the downstream trading is slowing down before the festival. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [36]. Apples - The pre - festival trading in apple production areas is basically over. The cold - storage good - quality apples are in short supply, raising the cost of warehouse receipts. Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [37]. Logs - The log futures market has both bullish and bearish factors. The price of 3 - meter wood squares in Lanshan area is rising, and the market expects the log price to have an upward space, injecting positive factors into the futures market [38]. Corn, Hogs, and Eggs Corn - Short - term: The spot market trading is light before the Spring Festival, with narrow - range fluctuations. Medium - term: There is still inventory - building demand after the Spring Festival, and a wide - range trading idea should be maintained. Long - term: The pricing logic is still based on substitution + planting cost [39]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to the post - holiday grain quality and policy - grain auction [39]. Hogs - Short - term: The supply of hogs is abundant, and the consumption support is weak before the holiday. Medium - term: The supply pressure will continue to be released before March, and will be alleviated from April. Long - term: The supply pressure will still exist before August, and the far - month contract expectations are lowered [40]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and focus on the post - holiday supply pressure and disease situation [40]. Eggs - Short - term: The spot trading is light before the Spring Festival, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in February is putting pressure on egg prices. Medium - term: The egg supply pressure is postponed. Long - term: The continuous expansion of the egg - laying hen breeding scale may limit the price increase space [42]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and focus on the chicken culling and molting rhythm around the Spring Festival [42]. Crude Oil - The US - Iran negotiation and market liquidity have affected the crude oil price recently. The price is expected to show a short - term upward - trending volatility before the outcome of the US - Iran situation is determined [49]. Lithium Carbonate - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, leading to the stabilization of precious metals and the rebound of the non - ferrous sector. The fundamentals are strong, with production and inventory decreasing. The lithium - battery industry's production plan in March is expected to reach a new high [52]. - It is necessary to manage positions during the holiday [52]. Methanol - The methanol port inventory is at a high level, and the overseas Iranian methanol plants are expected to gradually resume in March. The price is in an interval - running pattern, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation during the holiday [55]. Urea - Urea factories have been destocking since mid - October last year, and the price is supported by reserve demand and agricultural stocking. However, high daily production still exerts pressure. The price is likely to rise but is restricted by policies. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and domestic demand progress during the holiday [58]. Pure Benzene - Crude oil provides strong cost support for pure benzene. Although the current market is weak, the future supply - demand pattern is good. It is expected that the price will show a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and post - holiday demand [61]. Bottle Chips - Crude oil provides strong cost support for bottle chips. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw material end in a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and crude oil performance [62]. Rubber Series Natural Rubber - Before the festival, natural rubber prices are oscillating strongly. The overseas raw material is in the production - reduction season, and the overall warming of commodities boosts the price. However, the seasonal inventory accumulation may suppress the market during the holiday. It is recommended to hold light long positions during the holiday [66]. Synthetic Rubber - Recently, BR has been oscillating. Before the festival, the supply of butadiene is not significantly replenished, and the market trading is light. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to overseas geopolitical events and crude oil trends [66]. Steel - The exchange has raised the margin to 12%. There are risks such as insufficient macro - policy easing, liquidity decline, raw material price fluctuations, and external market linkages. It is recommended to significantly reduce positions to avoid risks during the holiday [73]. Iron Ore - The margin has been increased from 11% to 13%, and the daily limit has been raised from 9% to 11%. There are risks such as high inventory, loose supply - demand, pre - holiday capital withdrawal, and external market fluctuations during the holiday. It is recommended to significantly reduce positions [76]. Coking Coal and Coke - Before the Spring Festival, the coking coal spot trading is relatively sluggish, and the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to post - holiday policies and coal imports [80]. Ferroalloys - Before the Spring Festival, the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures continue the pattern of "cost support, weak demand, and interval oscillation". The supply and demand of the two types of ferroalloys are different. It is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday and pay attention to supply - side changes and post - holiday resumption of work [83]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March has been significantly reduced, and the strengthening US dollar will suppress copper prices. There are also risks such as tariff expectations, inventory accumulation, and demand substitution [90]. Aluminum - Before the festival, Shanghai aluminum is oscillating weakly, restricted by high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to hold light positions, operate cautiously, and conduct intraday trading to avoid overnight risks [92]. Alumina - Before the festival, alumina prices are weakly oscillating, under pressure from cost, supply, and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, conduct intraday trading, and avoid one - sided short selling [95]. Caustic Soda - Before the festival, the caustic soda price is under pressure, showing a weak - oscillating trend. It is recommended to short on rallies, operate cautiously, and hold light positions during the holiday [98].

Group 1 - The current commodity market is transitioning from a "general rise" to "structural differentiation," with funds shifting towards undervalued sectors with solid fundamentals [1][2] - Precious metals are leading the market, followed by industrial metals, while energy and chemical sectors are starting to rise from low levels [1][2] - The historical divergence between "green metals" (copper, lithium, nickel) and traditional energy sources (crude oil, coal) is becoming evident, with the former experiencing tight supply and explosive demand, while the latter faces relaxed supply and slowing demand [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is more akin to a recovery phase rather than overheating, driven by demand growth from the AI technology revolution rather than traditional economic overheating [3] - The supply chain is shifting from a focus on efficiency to a focus on security, with resource country policies becoming key price drivers [3][4] - The recent price fluctuations in gold and silver are seen as corrections rather than reversals of long-term trends, with the long-term upward logic for these metals remaining intact [3][4] Group 3 - The current commodity cycle is characterized by a paradigm shift, with the strong performance of precious and strategic metals driven by structural narratives rather than robust global economic growth [5][6] - The traditional sequence of commodity price movements is being disrupted, with the new sequence being gold → new energy metals (copper/silver/lithium) → electric infrastructure (aluminum/zinc) → strategic minor metals (tungsten/tin/cobalt) [10][11] - The market is witnessing significant differentiation, with precious and non-ferrous metals showing strong performance while traditional economic growth-related sectors remain weak [10][11] Group 4 - The current commodity market is in a critical transition phase, similar to the 1970s, but with new variables such as energy transition and weakening dollar credit [9][10] - The price resilience of commodities is stronger, but the volatility is also more extreme due to the combination of historical inflation and new demand drivers like AI and green transition [9][10] - Investors are advised to focus on understanding the new market dynamics and structural changes rather than relying on historical patterns [10][11]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 9 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格 6122 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6235 元/吨（+0），华南 瓶片价格 6250 元/吨（+0）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 973 手至 7.39 万手，空头持 仓减少 1425 手至 7.7 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 30.3 万吨，环比+0.38 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 65.4%，环比+0.8%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5662 元， 环比-151 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-26 元/吨，环比+22 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 58.87 万吨，较上月增加 5. ...