有色金属ETF（512400）业绩比较基准为中证申万有色金属指数收益率，管理人为南方基金管理股份有 限公司，基金经理为崔蕾，成立（2017-08-03）以来回报为154.70%，近一个月回报为14.07%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 3月3日，有色金属ETF（512400）开盘跌1.80%，报2.453元。有色金属ETF（512400）重仓股方面，紫 金矿业开盘跌1.03%，洛阳钼业跌2.02%，北方稀土跌0.58%，华友钴业跌1.05%，中国铝业涨0.14%，赣 锋锂业跌1.50%，山东黄金跌2.00%，云铝股份涨0.85%，中金黄金跌2.88%，藏格矿业跌1.05%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 ...

以下文章来源于格隆汇交易学苑 ，作者格隆汇小编 格隆汇交易学苑 . 以基本面为基础，专注于趋势交易 作者 | 格隆汇小编 数据支持 | 勾股 大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 2026 年碳酸锂行业迎来关键发展节点，动力与储能双轮驱动下需求超预期增长，而供给端增量集中释放且存在诸多不确定性，行业供 需格局进入紧平衡阶段。 首先，从行业的周期来看，碳酸锂价格一般呈现 5 年一个周期的规律，而 2025-2027 年正处于新一轮上行周期。 其次，叠加当前行业库存处于低位，产业链补库需求强烈，碳酸锂价格具备坚实的上行支撑，行业将开启 26-27 年两年向上新周期， 相关龙头企业也将迎来业绩与估值的双重修复，行业投资价值凸显。 01 供给端： 增量集中26年下半年，多环节存超预期可能 2026 年全球锂矿供给迎来增量释放， 中性预期下全年供给 214 万吨，新增 44 万吨， 但增量产能大多集中在 2026 年三季度之 后， 且各环节供给均存在一定的不确定性， 实际供给或低于预期 。 从供给结构来看，国内盐湖、国内矿山、海外盐湖、澳矿及非矿共同构成增量主力，其中国内盐湖贡献 8.4 万吨增量，藏格麻米措、 ...

格隆汇3月3日｜A股市场锂矿股集体下挫，其中，华友钻业、中矿资源跌超6%，西藏珠峰、西部矿广业跌超5%，藏格矿业、尔康制药、赣锋锂业、盐湖股 份、天齐锂业跌超4%。消息面上，碳酸锂主力合约今日大跌，盘中一度触及跌停，跌幅12.99%，报150860元/吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The metal market is currently in a state of tight supply-demand balance, with macroeconomic factors being the key drivers of metal price trends, including monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions [1][12]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical disturbances, particularly the US-Iran conflict, have led to a steady increase in precious metal prices, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases. As of the end of January, China's gold reserves reached 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces from the previous month, marking 15 consecutive months of reserve expansion [2][13]. - Specific price movements include SHFE gold rising by 3.29% to 1,147.90 CNY per gram, COMEX gold increasing by 4.24% to 5,296.40 USD per ounce, and London gold rising by 3.27% to 5,278.26 USD per ounce. Silver prices also saw significant increases, with SHFE silver up 16.34% to 23,019 CNY per kilogram [2][13]. - Recommended stocks in the precious metals sector include Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining [3][14]. Base Metals - The copper sector is characterized by a strong supply-demand dynamic, with prices supported by strategic stockpiling and rigid supply. Recent data shows SHFE copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 CNY per ton, while LME copper rose by 2.93% to 13,343.5 USD per ton [4][15]. - In contrast, the aluminum sector faces a "macro positive, inventory pressure" scenario, with SHFE aluminum prices rising by 2.76% to 23,835 CNY per ton, but facing seasonal supply pressures and increasing inventories [5][16]. - Recommended stocks for copper include Jincheng Resources and Luoyang Molybdenum, while for aluminum, recommended stocks include Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum [4][5][15][16]. Energy Metals - The energy metals sector is experiencing strong demand and declining inventories, with lithium carbonate continuing to deplete. Recommended stocks include Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [7][19]. - The cobalt sector is facing tight raw material supplies, with companies extending their operations into downstream electric new energy sectors to enhance competitive advantages. Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt [7][19]. Rare Earth and Strategic Metals - The rare earth sector has seen price increases post-holiday, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide rising significantly. The report highlights the investment value of rare earths as strategic resources [8][20]. - The tungsten sector is benefiting from supply constraints and strategic pricing models, with recommended stocks including Xiamen Tungsten [8][20]. - The uranium sector has seen long-term price increases due to supply rigidity and nuclear power development, with recommended stocks including China Uranium [9][21].

证券分析师 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2026 年 03 月 02 日 上期有色金属指数解析：期货指数 与股票指数有何差异？ 相关研究 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 股 票 基 金 - ⚫ 有色金属景气回升，政策驱动行业稳增长。2025/8/28，工业和信息化部等八部门印发《有 色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，系列举措将有效改善行业供需结构、 提升产业韧性，为有色金属行业景气度回升注入强劲动力。 ⚫ 工业有色金属的供需维持紧平衡，价格易涨难跌。结合库存数据与行业周期来看，当前 LME 铜、铝、锡的全球库存整体仍处于低位，机器人、新能源汽车以及新能源装机等新 兴产业的快速发展，正在同步推升铜、铝等工业有色金属的需求；而供给端方面，近几年 全球铜矿开采量增速出现放缓，全球铝的产能也已经达到高位，新增产能受限，因此，未 来铜、铝等工业有色 ...

财通证券 CAITONG SECURITIES ok st skill an "抱团"新战场 S0160523030003 80160526010002 币:熊宇翔 S0160524070003 分析师:王亦奕 SAC: S0160522030002 分析师:张洲驰 下 SAC: S0160524070004 联系人:常瑛珞 2026/3 养研究报告 配置方向:进攻HALO(出海+涨价)+防御HALO(重资产高门槛) 进攻HALO: 1、涨价+出海周期(农化、化纤、稀土): 2、出海高端制造(专用设备、仪器仪表、船舶等): 3、受益于资本市场回暖的券商: 4、基建 地产链(装饰材料、建筑设计)。出海方向提示我们2026年度策略就向大家前瞻推荐的"奔马50"组合。 防御HALO:1、低持仓行业:煤炭、建筑等地产链:2、TMT低相关:煤炭、石化等。 引言：2024年9月至今的A股告市已选1年半，2023年以来的美股牛市已超3年，方向最明确、交易和选择最简单的阶段可能已经过去。后续加快知 何抉择? 当前美股经验-HALO交易、效寿看不明白的科技后半场，提前特向长期左侧交易替代对冲：美股科技虽然业绩持续向好、资本开支 ...

紫金矿业 20260226 摘要 持"矿业为主导"，以"提质、上产、控本、增效"为总方针；相较过去几年 强调"提质、控本、增效"，在当前金属价格较为合适的前提下，将"上产" 明确纳入新的总方针，并对主要矿产品产量规划指标进行了小幅上调。2026 年指引与前期变化不大：矿产金预计 105 吨，矿产铜预计 120 万吨，当量碳 酸锂预计约 12 万吨，其中当量碳酸锂由 2025 年的 2.5 万吨提升而来，主要源 于多个项目逐步放量。到 2028 年的三年规划目标为：矿产金约 130 至 140 吨， 矿产铜约 150 至 160 万吨，当量碳酸锂约 27 至 32 万吨；同时还包括矿产银、 铅锌，以及正在逐步开发和投产的矿产钼。2035 年远景目标是在三年规划基 础上实现更明显的跨越式增量，力争公司主要技术与经济指标较 2025 年实现 跨越式增长，部分指标达到全球首位，全面建成"绿色、高技术、超一流的国 际矿业集团"。 2026 年当量碳酸锂 12 万吨的产量目标如何拆分到具体项目，并进一步对应 到 2028 年 27 至 32 万吨的项目构成与节奏安排是什么？ 2026 年当量碳酸锂规划产量约 12 万吨。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the precious metals sector due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East conflict, particularly the military actions between the U.S. and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran accounts for approximately 56% of global strontium production, 24% of DRI production, and has significant copper and zinc reserves, which could be impacted by the ongoing conflict [4][5]. - It suggests that the geopolitical situation may exacerbate supply shortages for copper and other critical metals, urging investors to monitor these developments closely [6]. Aluminum Sector - The report discusses the potential tightening of the global aluminum supply due to the conflict, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could impact around 600,000 tons of aluminum supply [12][14]. - It indicates that the aluminum market is currently stable, but geopolitical risks could lead to price volatility [11]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices, as Zimbabwe is a key supplier [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting pricing dynamics in the market [15]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as companies in the copper and aluminum sectors such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao Group [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Views - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are expected to boost the safe-haven appeal of precious metals like gold and silver [2]. - Despite inventory accumulation in copper, prices remain strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve considerations from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is anticipated to experience price fluctuations as the consumption season approaches, supported by macroeconomic factors [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from Myanmar [8]. - Lithium prices are rising due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are showing strength as demand recovers with the resumption of production [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are driving up demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets, with specific companies recommended for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Despite a significant increase in global copper inventories, prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and expectations of domestic demand recovery [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to see price volatility as downstream production resumes post-holiday, with macroeconomic conditions remaining favorable [4]. - **Nickel**: Prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel manufacturers [5]. - **Tin**: Prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns stemming from Myanmar's political situation [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, influenced by export restrictions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: The price of cobalt has risen by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, supported by recovering demand as production resumes [10]. Key Companies - Recommended companies for investment include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao, among others, reflecting strong growth potential in the non-ferrous metals sector [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are driving increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven, suggesting a strong long-term investment value in this sector [2]. - Despite a significant increase in copper inventories, the price remains strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve initiatives from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but overall demand is anticipated to recover as downstream production resumes [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills, indicating a positive outlook for the nickel market [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply concerns from Myanmar and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [8]. - Lithium prices are rising sharply due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are also showing strength as demand from precursor companies increases, with expectations of a stable recovery in the market [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights the benefits of precious metals in times of geopolitical uncertainty, recommending companies such as Xinyi Silver and Zijin Mining for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The report notes a 32,200-ton increase in global copper inventories but emphasizes that prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and ongoing demand [3]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a significant inventory build-up, but demand is expected to recover as production resumes post-holiday [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel mills [5]. - **Tin**: The report indicates that tin prices may experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns from Myanmar [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Lithium prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, driven by supply disruptions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices have increased by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, with demand from precursor companies showing signs of recovery [10].