前言 中国主动释放善意，7月稀土出口暴增75%，用实际行动为中美关系降温。 美国的回应却让人大跌眼镜，先是使馆公然叫嚣"敌对国家"，接着制裁企业，最后连留学生都不放过。 拿到稀土就翻脸，美国这波操作暴露了什么？中美关系走到了哪一步？ 75%暴增送稀土，换来三记闷棍 7月一个数字震惊了华盛顿。 5577吨稀土磁铁涌向美国，75%的暴增幅度创下年内新高，这是中国海关总署8月20日公布的官方数据。 这个数字意味着什么？要知道稀土就像工业"味精"，看着不起眼，却是每个高科技产品都离不开的核心材料。从F-35战斗机到特斯拉电动车，从iPhone到风 力发电机，全都要用到中国稀土。 中国掌握着全球90%的稀土加工能力，这可不是谁想替代就能替代的。 更关键的是，这批稀土的主要买家德国、美国和越南中，很多运到越南的产品只是"过个手"，最终还是流向了美国企业。 从5月到7月，中国对美稀土出口呈现阶梯式增长：46吨、353吨、619吨，每个月都在加码。 这清楚说明，美国对中国稀土的依赖已经深深扎根在全球供应链的每一个环节里。中国这次是拿出了十足的诚意。 但这份诚意，华盛顿似乎并不买账。 就在稀土数据公布前后，美国对中国连续出了三 ...

2025 年 08 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆小幅收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3985 -28（-0.70%） | 3996 +7（+0.18%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3088 -40（-1.28%） | 3108 +14（+0.45%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | +2.25（+0.21%） 1058.25 | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 291 -2.8（-0.95%） | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3060～3110， 较昨-20至持平； 8-9月M2509+60， 持平； 9月M2601-40， | 8月底前提货M2509-20； 现货基差M2601+0/+20； 持平； 10月M2601+0/+20/+60， 持平； 10- | | | | 1月M2601+40/+80， 持平或+10； 持平 ...

中国驻美国大使谢锋在中美大豆产业合作伙伴早餐会上表示，农业是中美关系的支柱之一，双方完全可以优势互补，但保护主义甚嚣尘上，使中美农业合作阴云笼罩，中美农业合作要“除虫”也要“育种”。谢锋强调，农业不应被政治化绑架，农民不应为贸易战埋单；禁限中国公民、企业购买农地纯属以国家安全为名、行政治操弄之实，是挂羊头卖狗肉，是以一己之私绑架中美农业合作。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国大豆协会周二致特朗普的信函写道：“大豆种植户正面临巨大的财务压力。价格持续下跌，与此同时，我们的农民却在投入和设备上花费巨额资金。美国大豆种植户无法承受与我们最大客户之间长期的贸易争端。” ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Overnight US stocks tumbled and the stock market corrected yesterday, leading to a subdued market sentiment at today's opening. After the mid - session, optimism resurfaced, possibly influenced by some positive interim report data and the expectation of eased Sino - US relations. Short - term market sentiment remains volatile, with shrinking trading volume, indicating that some funds have become cautious. The market is expected to fluctuate near the pressure line for some time, awaiting signals of the Fed's monetary policy adjustment at the Jackson Hole meeting. Currently, maintain positions and be prepared to hedge against downside risks. Given the continuous rise of futures basis boosted by sentiment, using options for hedging may be a better choice [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index rose with shrinking volume, and the small and medium - cap stocks performed relatively strongly, while the gap between large and small - cap stocks narrowed. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 180.1 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues, and the current work is progressing smoothly. - The parade will last about 70 minutes and will showcase some strategic heavy weapons, high - precision strike equipment, and unmanned and anti - unmanned equipment from the land, sea, and air for the first time [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Insurance strategy: Hold spot and buy put options [5]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 1.16 | 1.08 | 1.40 | 1.23 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.0668 | 6.3114 | 11.9244 | 29.8722 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 2.1399 | 0.0678 | 1.6892 | 6.2534 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.7018 | 10.6633 | 22.8358 | 40.0625 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 0.8761 | 0.2909 | 0.7608 | 2.3675 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 1.04 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.89 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 2.35 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 2408.234 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (billion yuan) | - 180.135 | [6]

Group 1 - The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 marks a subtle "thaw" in US-Russia relations, indicating a willingness to address mutual concerns despite no formal agreements being signed [1][3] - Trump's positive remarks about Putin and the meeting's atmosphere suggest a potential shift in diplomatic engagement, although he deflected responsibility for the Ukraine issue onto Zelensky [1][3] - The cancellation of the US Treasury Secretary's visit to India casts a shadow over India's trade prospects, highlighting the complexities of US-India relations amid rising tensions [1][5] Group 2 - Wang Yi's visit to India following the US-Russia meeting is seen as a strategic move by China to strengthen ties with India, especially after recent high-level interactions have improved bilateral relations [3][5] - The economic complementarity between China and India, particularly in manufacturing and services, presents opportunities for collaboration, but security issues must be addressed first [5][7] - India's recognition of the impracticality of a strict alignment with the US indicates a strategic shift towards a more independent foreign policy, seeking to balance relations between China and the US [7]

Group 1: Soybean Industry Impact - Soybean prices have dropped to $10 per bushel, significantly below the $12 production cost, leading to a loss of $200 per acre for farmers [1] - The U.S.-China tariff war has resulted in a decline in U.S. soybean demand, while Brazilian soybeans have gained market share due to higher protein content and competitive pricing [1] - In July, soybean imports reached 11.67 million tons, the highest for the same period historically, with most imports coming from Brazil rather than the U.S. [1] Group 2: U.S.-China Relations and Economic Strategy - The tariff war is part of a broader U.S. strategy against China, which is often portrayed as a threat by U.S. politicians [2] - Former President's son Neil Bush challenges the narrative of China as a threat, highlighting China's economic growth and poverty alleviation efforts [2][4] - The U.S. has implemented policies like chip bans that have negatively impacted American businesses while failing to hinder China's advancements [4] Group 3: Perception and Policy Critique - Neil Bush argues that the U.S. is creating a false narrative of China as an enemy to distract from domestic issues [4][6] - He emphasizes that China's rise does not pose a threat to the U.S., as China seeks internal prosperity rather than external conquest [8] - The current U.S. policies, including tariffs and technology restrictions, are seen as harmful to both U.S. interests and global stability [6][8] Group 4: Call for Understanding - Neil Bush calls for Americans to visit China to gain a true understanding of the country, rather than relying on political rhetoric [10] - He stresses the importance of positive interaction between the U.S. and China, as both are major global economies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly focusing on the potential threat of secondary tariffs and the overall strategic stability in U.S.-China relations [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations and Tariff Delays - On August 12, Trump signed an executive order to delay 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days while maintaining 10% tariffs, which was anticipated by the market [4]. - The delay occurred at the last moment, suggesting a possible deterrent strategy [4]. Secondary Tariff Threats - Trump's threat to impose a 25% secondary tariff on China is not merely about increasing oil purchases but is aimed at leveraging China's influence on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire [5][6]. - The U.S. trade war has not effectively pressured China’s manufacturing or exports, and it has provided other countries with reasons to remain passive [5]. Energy Security Concerns - The secondary tariff threat touches on China's energy security, which is a more sensitive issue compared to trade in oil or agricultural products [6]. - The Chinese government has expressed strong opposition to unilateral sanctions and the trade war, emphasizing that there are no winners in such conflicts [6]. U.S.-Russia Relations and Its Impact - Trump's dual approach towards Russia includes military support for Ukraine and economic pressure through tariffs on countries buying Russian oil [6]. - A successful U.S.-Russia meeting could reduce the immediate need for secondary tariffs against China [6]. Future of U.S.-China Relations - The article predicts that U.S.-China relations will remain "strategically stable" and gradually improve, setting the stage for potential high-level meetings [7]. - The U.S. has specific demands from China regarding issues like rare earths and fentanyl, but the leverage has diminished recently [7]. Negotiation Dynamics - Achieving significant breakthroughs in negotiations will take time and depend on the outcomes of future high-level dialogues [7]. - The current trade war may hinder the U.S. from effectively engaging allies, as countries may choose to wait and see how U.S.-China relations evolve [7].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the extension of the "truce period" for tariffs between the US and China by 90 days, as stated by US President Trump, who emphasizes the importance of dialogue to address trade imbalances and national economic security issues [1] - Trump highlighted his good relationship with Chinese leaders and indicated a wait-and-see approach regarding future developments in US-China relations [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has released information regarding the US-China Stockholm economic and trade talks, but specific details were not provided in the response [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy, trade policies, and the geopolitical landscape, particularly focusing on the implications for the semiconductor and pharmaceutical industries due to tariff policies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Economic Performance**: The U.S. GDP grew by 3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 2%, indicating marginal resilience despite overall economic weakening [1][3]. 2. **Potential Fed Chair Nominee**: Kevin Hassett is a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, known for his pragmatic approach, which may align with Trump's economic policies while maintaining professional integrity [3][4]. 3. **Tariff Policies**: The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on industries such as automotive, steel, aluminum, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors under the guise of national security, aiming to protect traditional heavy industries and key sectors [4][6]. 4. **Tariffs on Semiconductors and Pharmaceuticals**: The rationale for tariffs includes high dependency on imports for chemical products and pharmaceutical precursors, with a significant decline in domestic production capacity [5][6]. 5. **Multi-faceted Tariff Strategy**: The tariffs serve multiple purposes, including addressing trade imbalances, enhancing national security, generating fiscal revenue, and exerting geopolitical pressure [6][7]. 6. **U.S.-China Relations**: Current tensions in U.S.-China relations stem from various issues, including tariffs on Russian oil purchases and negotiations surrounding TikTok, agricultural products, and U.S. debt purchases [7][9]. 7. **Upcoming China Visit**: Trump is expected to visit China between late October and early November, which could stabilize relations if successful negotiations occur [10][11]. 8. **Geopolitical Dynamics**: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and its implications for U.S.-China relations are critical, with potential impacts on market conditions and international cooperation [17][18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Tariff Exemptions**: The U.S. has granted some exemptions, such as allowing 100,000 cars from the UK to bypass the 232 tariffs, indicating selective enforcement of tariff policies [4]. 2. **Strategic Use of Tariffs**: The tariffs are not only a tool for economic adjustment but also a means of diplomatic leverage against other nations, showcasing a broader strategy of economic coercion [6][13]. 3. **Market Implications**: The current geopolitical climate, including the potential for improved U.S.-China relations, could influence market trends, particularly in the tech sector, which has shown resilience recently [17][19].

Group 1: Historical Overview of US Presidential Visits to China - Since Nixon's first visit in 1972, there have been a total of 10 official visits by US presidents to China[1] - Except for Carter and Biden, all US presidents since Nixon have visited China, with Carter's absence attributed to the nascent bilateral relationship and domestic election needs[1] - George W. Bush holds the record for the most visits, totaling 2 official visits, 1 APEC meeting, and 1 attendance at the Beijing Olympics[1] Group 2: Nature of Visits - Only Nixon (1972), Reagan (1984), and Clinton (1998) made dedicated trips to China without other travel arrangements[2] - Most presidential visits since the 21st century have been part of broader Asia-Pacific itineraries, indicating a trend of combined regional travel[2] - Bush's 2001 trip to Shanghai for the APEC summit was not classified as a visit to China by both sides[2] Group 3: Upcoming International Meetings - Significant upcoming international meetings in the Asia-Pacific region include the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia from October 26 to 28, 2025, and the APEC Leaders' Meeting in South Korea from October 28 to November 1, 2025[2]