戴绪龙：总的来看，中国面临的国际形势依然严峻复杂。 中央经济工作会议近日在京举行，围绕中国经济展开了"今年怎么看、明年怎么办"的讨论，并最终定 调。值得关注的是，此次会议多次提及外部环境，并提出必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战，坚持对外开 放，推动多领域合作共赢。 当前外部环境如何？有哪些"老问题"和"新挑战"？未来将如何应对外部环境的变化？带着这些问题，南 都N视频记者采访了商务部中国国际经济合作学会副会长、致公党中央委员戴绪龙。 戴绪龙近年来一直关注国际经济合作、资源与环境经济、可持续发展等领域，在服贸会、进博会多次担 任国际经济论坛总负责人。他说："这次中央经济工作会议有很多新提法值得关注，比如建设三大国际 科创中心，从原来的北京、上海、粤港澳大湾区扩容至京津冀、长三角和粤港澳大湾区，另外还部署了 多项支持科技创新的举措，可以看出我国未来科技强国的信心和决心。" 国际形势严峻复杂，中美经贸摩擦长期存在 南都：中央经济工作会议指出，我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加深。从 外部环境来看，您认为当前我国面临哪些"老问题"和"新挑战"？ 同时，深化结构改革，推进重点领域改革，激发市场活力。会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's cross-border direct investment, highlighting a shift from net outflows to net inflows in foreign direct investment, despite ongoing external pressures such as tariffs and trade protectionism [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Trends - In the first three quarters of 2023, China's net outflow of outward direct investment decreased year-on-year, while foreign direct investment shifted from net outflow to net inflow [1][2]. - The cross-border direct investment still shows a deficit, but the deficit amount has halved compared to the previous year, indicating an improvement in capital flow under direct investment [1][2]. - From 2021 to 2024, China's cross-border direct investment transitioned from a surplus to a deficit, with the deficit increasing by $319 billion [9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Investment - The significant reduction in foreign direct investment inflows is attributed to a sharp decline in equity investment inflows and a reversal in inter-company debt flows [11][12]. - Equity investment inflows dropped from $300.6 billion to $72.8 billion between 2021 and 2024, contributing to 70% of the total decline in foreign direct investment inflows [11]. - The net outflow of equity investment remained stable, with a slight increase from $152.4 billion to $130 billion, indicating that the primary reason for the decrease in outward direct investment was the reduction in inter-company debt outflows [26]. Group 3: Government Response and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government has implemented measures to mitigate external shocks, including deepening reforms and expanding high-level opening-up policies [18][19]. - In response to external pressures, the government has introduced a foreign investment stabilization plan, focusing on easing foreign investment access and optimizing the business environment [19]. - The first three quarters of 2023 saw a 50.8% reduction in the cross-border direct investment deficit, primarily due to increased foreign direct investment inflows and decreased outward direct investment outflows [22].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have highlighted the critical dependence of the US on Chinese rare earth elements, particularly in military and semiconductor industries, as China implements export controls to protect its strategic interests [1][2][4]. Group 1: Rare Earth Elements - The US is facing a significant shortage of rare earth elements, with domestic stocks only sufficient for two to three months, raising concerns about delays in electric vehicle and missile projects [1][2]. - China controls over 90% of the global rare earth supply chain, with recent export controls on seven heavy rare earth elements directly targeting US vulnerabilities [1][2]. - The price of rare earths has increased by 8% following China's new regulations, indicating heightened market tension [2][4]. Group 2: US Response and Industry Impact - The US has attempted to counteract China's dominance by suspending exports of critical components, such as the LEAP-1C engine for the C919 aircraft, which has reduced delivery plans from 50 to 25 units [6]. - The US government has also restricted sales of semiconductor design software to Chinese companies, significantly impacting their research and development timelines [8]. - Major US defense contractors, like Lockheed Martin, are exploring alternative materials due to the supply chain risks posed by China's export controls, but performance has reportedly decreased by over 20% [2][4]. Group 3: China's Strategic Position - China's rare earth industry, exemplified by the performance of Ganzhou Rare Earth Group, has shown resilience with a production output of 240,000 tons in the first half of the year, maintaining a complete supply chain from mining to refining [2]. - The Chinese government is prioritizing approvals for EU companies in its rare earth export policies, indicating a strategic pivot towards strengthening ties with Europe while sidelining the US [10]. - The CJ-1000A engine, developed by China, is expected to meet the needs of the C919 aircraft and is on track for certification, showcasing China's advancements in aviation technology despite US sanctions [10][11]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The US's sanctions may inadvertently accelerate China's innovation in both rare earth and aviation sectors, as China continues to solidify its market position and technological capabilities [11]. - The US's efforts to rebuild its supply chains are projected to take several years, during which time China's production lines remain active, further entrenching its competitive advantage [11].

Core Insights - A significant deal worth 37 billion RMB has been finalized, marking a notable shift in US-China agricultural trade relations after a period of tension and tariffs [1][8] - The deal includes a variety of agricultural products, primarily soybeans and corn, which are crucial for both countries' economies [8][12] Trade Dynamics - The US agricultural sector, particularly soybean farmers, faced challenges due to reduced exports to China, which traditionally accounted for 60% of their market [2][8] - China's need for soybeans led to increased prices from alternative suppliers, impacting domestic livestock and food prices [4][8] Negotiation Process - Initial tensions were marked by tariffs and trade barriers, but a series of five rounds of negotiations focused on principles of equality, respect, and mutual benefit [5][10] - The US agreed to lift most additional tariffs, while China restored import qualifications for US agricultural products based on compliance with safety standards [8][10] Economic Implications - The deal is expected to alleviate inventory pressures for US farmers and stabilize prices for Chinese consumers, benefiting the agricultural supply chain in both countries [8][12] - Future procurement arrangements are anticipated, which could enhance supply chain stability over the coming years [8][12] Political Context - Despite the positive developments, uncertainties remain regarding the stability of trade policies and potential future tariff increases from the US [10][12] - The agreement reflects a temporary resolution in the ongoing trade tensions, emphasizing the importance of continued dialogue and cooperation [12]

Group 1 - The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States in Busan, South Korea, has injected much-needed certainty into the often turbulent bilateral relationship, emphasizing mutual prosperity and cooperation [2] - The essence of China-U.S. economic relations is mutual benefit rather than a zero-sum game, with historical trade figures showing a significant increase from under $2.5 billion in 1979 to nearly $68.83 billion in 2024 [2] - The imposition of high tariffs by the U.S. earlier this year led to a near halt in bilateral trade, resulting in rising prices for American consumers and increased supply chain costs for U.S. businesses [2] Group 2 - Historical evidence suggests that trade wars yield no winners, as seen during the Great Depression, with ongoing trade conflicts lowering global economic growth expectations [3] - The interconnectedness of global supply chains means that disruptions in U.S.-China relations can have far-reaching effects, impacting third-party countries that may hope to benefit from the situation [3] - The complexity of global supply chains makes the idea of third parties profiting from U.S.-China tensions unrealistic, as any short-term gains are often offset by larger economic losses [3] Group 3 - Healthy and stable China-U.S. relations depend on rational recognition of shared interests and pragmatic management of differences, with recent discussions leading to a preliminary consensus on tariff issues [4] - Economic cooperation should serve as a stabilizing force in China-U.S. relations, focusing on long-term benefits rather than falling into a cycle of retaliation [4] - The absence of cooperation between China and the U.S. could hinder the resolution of global challenges such as economic recovery, climate change, and public health crises [4]

Group 1 - The mining ETF (561330) experienced a decline of over 3% during intraday trading on November 3 [1] - The industrial metals sector is driven by positive macroeconomic and policy expectations, with strong price performance for copper and aluminum [1] - The copper price is expected to continue rising due to a tight supply-demand balance, while aluminum prices are under pressure from potential shutdowns at Rio Tinto's Tomago smelter due to high electricity costs [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, which supports metal prices in a loose liquidity environment [1] - There are concerns regarding macroeconomic uncertainties stemming from ongoing US-China trade tensions and the impact of economic fluctuations on domestic and international demand [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals index (931892), which includes companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1]

Group 1 - The recent meeting in Busan between the US and China appeared to be positive, with the US announcing the cancellation of tariffs on Chinese fentanyl and pausing certain investigations in the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors [1][3] - Despite the seemingly cooperative atmosphere, the US Trade Representative stated that the Section 301 investigation would continue, indicating a strategy of maintaining leverage in negotiations with China [3][11] - The Section 301 investigation is rooted in unilateralism and protectionism, authorized by the US Trade Act of 1974, and is seen as a tool for the US to exert pressure on China regarding trade practices [5][9] Group 2 - The US is under domestic pressure to maintain a tough stance on China, with bipartisan consensus on the need for a strong approach, making it unlikely for any administration to abandon the Section 301 investigation [7][10] - The investigation is partly justified by the US's claim that China has not fulfilled its commitments under the Phase One Trade Agreement, with a significant shortfall in the expected purchase of US goods and services [7][9] - The US manufacturing sector faces challenges, including supply chain disruptions and production issues, which complicate the narrative that China is solely responsible for trade imbalances [9][10] Group 3 - The continuation of the Section 301 investigation could lead to further friction and disputes between the US and China, as it encompasses a wide range of industries [13] - China has expressed its commitment to reform and opening up while also emphasizing the need to protect its core interests, indicating a more assertive stance in future negotiations [15] - The current state of US-China relations is characterized by a strategic tug-of-war, with both sides reluctant to make concessions, which may prolong the existing tensions and uncertainties in the global market [15]

Group 1: Economic Context and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" coincides with the timeline set by the Third Plenary Session to complete comprehensive reform tasks by 2029, indicating a critical period for China's modernization and reform efforts[2] - The external environment poses significant challenges, with increased geopolitical tensions and intensified competition, particularly in the tech sector between China and the US[4] - The overall judgment for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period indicates a mix of strategic opportunities and risks, with rising uncertainties and instability in the global landscape[4] Group 2: Domestic Market and Innovation - Building a strong domestic market is essential, leveraging China's large-scale market advantages to stimulate internal demand and reduce reliance on macroeconomic policies[9] - The plan emphasizes the need for high-level technological self-reliance, aiming to overcome bottlenecks and enhance competitive advantages in international markets[15] - The government aims to expand domestic demand through various measures, including promoting consumption and investment, with a focus on improving living standards and addressing structural issues[11] Group 3: Economic Performance Indicators - China's goods exports are projected to average 14.43% of the global market share from 2021 to 2025, an increase of 1.16 percentage points compared to the previous five-year period[6] - The net export of goods and services is expected to contribute an average of 0.91 percentage points to economic growth during the same period, with a contribution rate of 16.34%, up by 0.83 and 11.10 percentage points respectively from the previous period[6] - In the first three quarters of 2023, China's economic growth reached 5.2%, surpassing the consensus forecast of 4.8%, despite ongoing challenges in domestic demand and low inflation[9]

Group 1 - The article highlights the escalating economic and trade tensions between China and the United States, particularly in the areas of rare earths, software export controls, and tariffs, which cast a shadow over the upcoming high-level talks [1] Group 2 - The U.S. is considering expanding software export restrictions to China, focusing on products that utilize American software, particularly in sensitive areas like drones and satellites, as a response to China's export controls on rare earths [2] - In retaliation, China announced export controls on rare earths and related technologies, asserting that this measure is to safeguard national security and global supply chain stability, while also imposing special port fees on U.S. vessels as a countermeasure [3] Group 3 - Upcoming talks between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Behnke in Malaysia are expected to pave the way for a potential meeting at the end of the month, although recent actions by both sides have complicated negotiations [4] Group 4 - The core conflict between China and the U.S. has shifted from trade deficits to a struggle for technological hegemony and control over strategic resources, with the U.S. aiming to curb China's advancements in AI and high-end manufacturing through software restrictions, while China leverages its dominance in the rare earth supply chain [5]

Overseas Macro - Emerging market manufacturing is recovering, with the global manufacturing PMI at 50.8 in September, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from August, but still above the expansion threshold[5] - The US consumer confidence index has dropped for three consecutive months, indicating weakening consumer expectations and potential pressure on future demand[7] - European inflation has risen again, with the EU CPI and core CPI both increasing by 2.6% year-on-year in September, reflecting the impact of US tariff policies on prices[9] Domestic Macro - China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in Q3, with a cumulative growth of 5.2% for the first three quarters, showing strong resilience overall[12] - External demand remains strong while internal demand is weak, with consumption contributing 2.7 percentage points, investment 0.9 percentage points, and net exports 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth[13] - Fixed asset investment fell by 6.8% year-on-year in September, with manufacturing investment down by 1.9% and real estate investment down by 21.2%[17] Policy Outlook - Uncertainty remains, with signs of monetary and fiscal easing emerging; the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%–4.25% in September[27] - China's policy is expected to continue as planned, focusing on targeted fiscal measures and a more neutral monetary stance in Q4[33] Asset Performance - Precious metals surged, with gold spot prices rising by 14.8% and silver by 31.1%, both reaching historical highs due to Fed rate cuts and trade tensions[34] - The Chinese stock market adjusted due to increased trade negotiation risks, despite a generally positive global market response to Fed easing[34]