Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the news from the Federal Reserve and takes profits, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,090 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread for Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest is 93,632 lots, down 1,182 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 541 lots, up 261 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 38,160 tons, down 3,450 tons; the SHFE inventory is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,002.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 219,725 tons, down 250 tons [2]. b. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) spread is - 40.08 dollars/ton, up 2.05 dollars [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) price is 16,830 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.59 tons, unchanged; the processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 0.5 thousand tons, up 1.3 thousand tons; the global lead ore output is 395.9 thousand tons, up 15.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 13.48 tons, up 1.27 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,091.07 yuan/ton, down 23.22 yuan [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 49,680 thousand units, up 1,925 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,188.73 points, up 55.3 points; the monthly automobile output is 275.24 tons, up 24.24 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 133.3 tons, up 15.7 tons [2]. f. Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rates have been too high for too long and the US will enter an easing cycle; FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of rate cuts due to inflation concerns; San Francisco Fed President Daly thinks further rate cuts may be needed; the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars to 15% since August 1, 2025; the US has launched a 232 - clause investigation on imported medical devices and industrial machinery; the Kremlin criticizes Trump for trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at higher prices; the "Fed whisperer" indicates that Powell's remarks suggest further rate cuts may be possible; Sino - US economic and trade negotiations have made initial progress [2]. g. View Summary - The Fed's news has opened up rate - cut space, which has a positive impact on the market sentiment; on the supply side, some primary lead smelters are in maintenance, the raw material market is in tight balance, and the recycled lead production is restricted; on the demand side, the traditional consumption peak season is approaching, the demand in emerging fields is good, but the overall demand is still in a slow - recovery stage; the overall inventory has decreased, indicating that demand has effectively reduced inventory [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the news from the Federal Reserve and takes profits, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,090 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 3 - month lead quote on LME is 2,002.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars [3]. - The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 93,632 lots, down 1,182 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 541 lots, up 261 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 38,160 tons, down 3,450 tons [3]. - The inventory of SHFE is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME lead inventory is 219,725 tons, down 250 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 40.08 dollars/ton, up 2.05 dollars [3]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,830 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [3]. - The average operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,900 tons, unchanged [3]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output is 395,900 tons, up 15,700 tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of lead ore is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons; the domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory average is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons [3]. - The average market price of waste batteries is 10,091.07 yuan/ton, down 23.22 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 49,680,000 units, up 1,925,000 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,075 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 2,188.73 points, up 55.3 points; the monthly output of automobiles is 2,752,400 units, up 242,400 units [3]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,333,000 units, up 157,000 units [3]. 3.6 Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rate has been too high for too long, and the US will enter an easing cycle. Powell should have signaled a 100 - 150 basis - point rate cut [3]. - FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of rate cuts due to inflation concerns; Daly believes that economic growth and labor have slowed, and inflation is lower than expected, so further rate cuts may be needed [3]. - The US has officially lowered the tariff on EU cars to 15% since August 1, 2025, and the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations have made initial progress [3]. - The US has launched a 232 - clause investigation on imported medical devices and industrial machinery [3]. - The Kremlin criticizes Trump for trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at a higher price [3]. 3.7 View Summary - Some primary lead smelting enterprises in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other regions are in the centralized maintenance stage, the raw material market is in a tight - balance state, and the processing fee of lead concentrate continues to decline [3]. - The production of primary lead continues to decline. The release of recycled lead production capacity has slowed down due to environmental inspections and lower waste battery recycling efficiency [3]. - The demand for lead - acid batteries is relatively stable, the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is warming up, and the demand for lead in emerging energy storage fields is showing a good trend [3]. - Although the downstream purchasing atmosphere has improved marginally, the overall demand has not increased significantly and is still in a slow recovery stage [3]. - Both domestic and foreign lead inventories have decreased, and the overall inventory has declined, indicating that demand has effectively driven inventory reduction [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead decreased slightly, demand increased slowly, and after the market digested the Fed's news and took profits, it showed a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to buy on dips for lead prices [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,065 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread was - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the open interest was 94,814 lots, down 4,144 lots; the net position of the top 20 was 541 lots, up 261 lots; the warehouse receipts were 38,160 tons, down 3,450 tons; the SHFE inventory was 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,999 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars; the LME lead inventory was 219,975 tons, down 1,700 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 lead spot price was 16,950 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 lead spot price was 17,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract was - 115 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME lead cash - 3 spread was - 42.13 dollars/ton, up 3.03 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 37.88%, up 4.55 percentage points; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.59 tons, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was - 0.5 kilotons, up 1.3 kilotons; the global lead mine output was 395.9 kilotons, up 15.7 kilotons; the lead ore import volume was 13.48 tons, up 1.27 tons [2] Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the refined lead export volume was 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of waste batteries was 10,091.07 yuan/ton, down 23.22 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 49,680 units, up 1,925 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy was 20,075 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Shenwan industry index of batteries was 2,133.43 points, down 24.05 points; the monthly automobile output was 275.24 tons, up 24.24 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 133.3 tons, up 15.7 tons [2] Industry News - Fed Chair Powell was cautious about future rate cuts, and the dollar strengthened. He said there were risks in employment and inflation and avoided giving a clear signal on whether to cut rates in October. The "Fed whisperer" pointed out that Powell's remarks indicated that interest rates were still too tight, which might open the door for further rate cuts. Sino - US economic and trade negotiations made initial progress, which had a positive impact on market sentiment [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, some primary lead smelters entered the maintenance stage, the raw material market was in a tight balance, and the processing fee of lead concentrate continued to decline. The production of primary lead decreased, and the capacity release of recycled lead slowed down due to environmental inspections and low waste battery recycling efficiency. On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries was stable, the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season was approaching, and the demand in emerging energy storage fields was good. However, the spot trading was average when prices rose, and downstream enterprises were still waiting and seeing [2] Prompt Attention - No news on this day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has slightly decreased, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the Fed's news and takes profits, it shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,125 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,003 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar [2]. - The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 100,923 lots, up 4,528 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 72 lots, up 960 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt is 47,289 tons, down 2,086 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME lead inventory is 220,300 tons, down 2,375 tons [2]. - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The basis of the lead main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 43.72 dollars/ton, up 0.33 dollars [2]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2]. - The average starting rate of primary lead is 81.52%, down 1.04 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,900 tons, down 1,900 tons [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/thousand tons, unchanged; the global lead mine output is 395,900 tons, up 15,700 tons [2]. - The import volume of lead concentrate is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the export volume of refined lead is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons [2]. - The export volume of batteries is 49.68 million, up 1.925 million; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,125.6 points, down 12.42 points; the automobile output is 2.51 million, down 298,600 [2]. - The output of new energy vehicles is 1.333 million, up 157,000 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Republican appropriation bill passed by the US House of Representatives failed to pass in the Senate; to avoid a government shutdown, the Democratic leader in the US Congress called for an immediate meeting with Trump [2]. - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that two more rate cuts this year are appropriate [2]. - The US Chief Justice asked Fed Governor Cook to respond to Trump by September 25 [2]. - US senators are seeking to increase pressure on Russia by sanctioning the "shadow fleet" [2]. - The European Commission has passed the 19th sanctions package against Russia, lowering the crude oil price cap to $47.6 per barrel and proposing to ban the import of Russian liquefied natural gas on January 1, 2027, one year earlier than the original plan [2]. 3.7 Inventory - Both foreign and domestic lead inventories have decreased, as well as the number of warehouse receipts. Overall, the inventory has declined, indicating that demand has effectively driven inventory reduction [2].

在美联储重启降息周期的背景下，具备增长潜力的中国资产对内外资机构的吸引力均在提升。中信建投 最新研报指出，美联储降息周期重启，此次降息为"风险管理式"降息，延续既往降息框架，后续降息路 径或更为清晰，对经济增长提供有力支撑。同时中美经贸谈判也有新进展，为中美关系带来积极信号。 （资料来源：《中信建投：美联储如期降息》-2025/9/21） 此外外资方面，Wind资讯数据显示，今年以来截至9月21日已有729家外资机构合计调研A股公司6923 次，9月以来外资机构调研次数已超400余次，体现了外资机构对于中国资产的积极关注。 在此背景下，中证A500指数作为A股宽基指数体系的重要一员成为助力把握中国资产整体机遇的重要工 具。其中Wind数据显示，目前同类规模居首的A500ETF华泰柏瑞（563360）近10个交易日（2025/9/8- 2025/9/19）累计获10.33亿元资金加仓，助推其最新规模增长至223.51亿元。（规模数据来源：交易 所；其他数据来源：Wind；均截至2025/9/19） 伴随着资金的密集流入，A500ETF华泰柏瑞（563360）流动性也同步提升，Wind数据显示，9月以来截 至9月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract dropped 19.25 to close at 1026 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.84%; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 65 to close at 3014 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.11%; the South China soybean meal spot price dropped 30 to close at 2950 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.0%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract declined 9 to close at 2522 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.36%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price dropped 20 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.77% [4][7]. - The decline of US soybeans was mainly due to demand concerns, and the drop of soybean meal was mainly because of sufficient spot supply and weak basis operation. The market expected a possible Sino - US agricultural product procurement agreement, leading to the downward oscillation of Dalian soybean meal. Rapeseed meal was relatively resistant to decline as it continued the de - stocking rhythm and future supply was gradually tightening [4][7]. - Precipitation in Brazilian production areas is conducive to sowing. The pressure of US soybean harvest is emerging, the export sales progress is slow, and demand concerns lead to the decline of the external market. The high operating rate of oil mills, high soybean meal inventory, and sufficient spot supply. Although the feed enterprises have inventory replenishment needs before the double festivals, it is expected to be limited. The procurement of old - crop Brazilian soybeans has slowed down, the premium has declined, and the support of import cost has weakened. The Sino - US agricultural product procurement agreement has not been confirmed, and the follow - up Sino - US economic and trade progress should be monitored. Recently, Dalian soybean meal has stopped falling and is expected to oscillate in a short - term range [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract price dropped from 1045.25 to 1026 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.84%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans decreased from 490 to 484 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.22%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans dropped from 466 to 459 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.50%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk decreased by 3.08 yuan per ton; the soybean meal 01 contract price fell from 3079 to 3014 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.11%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract price declined from 2531 to 2522 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.36%; the East China soybean meal spot price dropped from 3000 to 2940 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.00%; the South China soybean meal spot price decreased from 2980 to 2950 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.01%; the South China spot - futures price difference increased by 35 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of September 14, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 63%, the harvest rate was 5%, the defoliation rate was 41%, and about 36% of the planting areas were affected by drought [8]. - As of the week of September 11, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 92.3 tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 1028 tons. China has not purchased new - crop US soybeans. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 3.14 dollars per bushel. The NOPA monthly report showed that the US soybean oil inventory in August 2025 was 1.245 billion pounds, and the soybean crushing volume was 189.81 million bushels [9]. - As of last Thursday, the sowing of Brazilian 2025/2026 soybeans was 0.12% of the total estimated area. The soybean export volume in September is expected to rise to 753 tons. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 733.2 tons, the soybean meal inventory was 116.44 tons, the unexecuted contract was 588.7 tons, and the national port soybean inventory was 968.6 tons [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the daily average trading volume of national soybean meal was 132,540 tons, the daily average pick - up volume was 198,284 tons, the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.4275 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 9.42 days [11]. Industry News - As of last Thursday, the sowing of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans was 0.12% of the total estimated area, slightly higher than 0.06% of the same period last year. The expected output of the new season is 180 million tons. In the Toledo area of Brazil, about 4,900 hectares of soybeans have been planted, accounting for 1% of the planned area [12]. - As of the week of September 7, 2025, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 1.5% to 47,200 tons. From August 1 to September 7, 2025, the export volume was 529,500 tons, a decrease of 53.4% compared with the same period last year. The commercial inventory was 516,200 tons [13]. - The estimated output of Brazilian 2024/25 soybeans remained at 170.3 million tons, the estimated export volume in 2025 remained at 109.5 million tons, and the estimated crushing volume in 2025 was raised to 58.5 million tons [13]. - Ukrainian rapeseed exports have been blocked for two consecutive weeks due to disputes over customs documents after a 10% export tariff was imposed [13]. - The estimated output of Australian 2025/26 rapeseed is 6.1 million tons, an increase of 3.4%. The estimated output of EU and UK rapeseed in 2025 is 21.6 million tons, higher than the previous estimate [14]. - The estimated output of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is expected to increase by 4.1% to 2 million tons, with a 6.2% increase in yield per unit area and a 2.0% decrease in harvest area [14]. - The CONAB agency estimated that the Brazilian 2025/2026 soybean output will increase by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons, and the planting area will be 49.08 million hectares [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, soybean meal main contract trend, etc., to visually present relevant data [16][17][20][22].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the state of U.S.-China relations and its implications for the capital markets, focusing on trade negotiations and geopolitical dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Normalization of U.S.-China High-Level Dialogue** The normalization of high-level dialogues between the U.S. and China suggests that negotiations will become more frequent, potentially occurring quarterly or biannually, which may help both sides reach a consensus [1][2][6] 2. **Shift in U.S. Policy Towards China** The U.S. may be shifting its policy from containment to strategic stability, with a focus on ensuring security in the Western Hemisphere, which could alter its strategy in the Asia-Pacific region [1][15] 3. **China's Economic Resilience** China has demonstrated economic resilience in response to the trade war, prompting the U.S. to reassess the balance of power between the two nations and possibly adjust its policy towards China [1][28] 4. **U.S. Treasury Secretary's Approach** U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson's pragmatic and flexible approach to negotiations, focusing on debt and dollar issues rather than advocating for strategic decoupling, may lead to more balanced U.S.-China economic discussions [1][11] 5. **Impact of New U.S. Ambassador to China** The arrival of new U.S. Ambassador to China, Pompeo, has improved high-level interactions and communication between the two countries, positively influencing the development of U.S.-China relations [1][12] 6. **Future High-Level Meetings** Upcoming events, such as the APEC summit in October and Trump's planned visit to China in early 2026, are expected to significantly impact U.S.-China relations [1][6][7] 7. **Current State of U.S.-China Trade Negotiations** The trade negotiations are in two phases, with the first phase focusing on tariffs and the second phase addressing broader issues like investment and technology. A new consensus has emerged, including a joint venture for TikTok in the U.S. [1][9] 8. **China's Position on TikTok** China has made concessions regarding TikTok but demands improvements in the business environment for Chinese companies in the U.S. as a condition for moving forward with the TikTok agreement [1][5] 9. **U.S. Economic Challenges** The U.S. faces economic challenges, including rising unemployment and inflation, which may influence Trump's policies and focus on economic improvement ahead of the midterm elections [1][17] 10. **China's Military Display and Its Impact** The recent military display by China has led the U.S. to reassess its military and economic strategies, indicating a potential shift from deterrence to seeking strategic stability [1][27] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Diplomatic Language Changes** The absence of the term "at the request" in recent communications reflects a subtle shift in diplomatic language, indicating a desire to avoid implying that the U.S. is dependent on China [1][3] 2. **Internal U.S. Coordination Issues** There are indications of poor internal coordination within the U.S. government, as evidenced by conflicting actions following negotiations, which could complicate future discussions [1][14] 3. **Potential for Future Cooperation** The upcoming leaders' meeting is expected to yield specific outcomes, particularly in areas like drug trafficking cooperation, which could enhance bilateral relations [1][19] 4. **Investment Opportunities in Renewable Energy** China has a comparative advantage in the renewable energy sector, which may see increased investment opportunities as the U.S. government may be more open to such investments to create jobs and generate tax revenue [1][29][30] 5. **Long-Term Economic Planning in China** China is preparing for its next five-year plan, which historically has been completed ahead of schedule, indicating a proactive approach to economic management [1][16]

Domestic Economic Insights - Economic data from July and August indicates significant pressure on domestic demand and a slowdown in external demand, leading to an increased probability of policy adjustments in the coming month[2] - In August, fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.6% in July, with infrastructure investment growth decreasing from 7.3% to 5.4%[18] - Retail sales growth in August was 3.4%, a decline from 3.7% in July, reflecting ongoing economic challenges[18] Currency and Monetary Policy - The phase of active appreciation of the RMB may be temporarily over, as the exchange rate is influenced by the prospects of Sino-U.S. and Sino-European trade talks[2] - Following the September FOMC meeting, the USD has paused its depreciation, reducing the passive appreciation pressure on the RMB[2] - The central bank's liquidity tightening during the RMB appreciation process is expected to shift back to a more abundant liquidity environment[2] International Economic Developments - The September FOMC cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with a focus on managing risks rather than responding to inflation, indicating a cautious economic outlook[17] - Upcoming Sino-U.S. talks are anticipated, with a potential meeting at APEC on October 31, and further negotiations expected before November[17] - Market volatility in overseas risk assets is expected in the coming weeks, but a bullish outlook on U.S. stocks remains[17] Market Performance Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a period of consolidation, while the Hong Kong market has seen slight gains[41] - U.S. stocks have shown a comprehensive upward trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.05% and the S&P 500 increasing by 1.22%[42] - Gold prices are fluctuating at high levels, while international crude oil prices have seen a slight decline[38]

Group 1: US-China Relations - The phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump on September 19 was described as pragmatic, positive, and constructive, focusing on stabilizing and developing US-China relations [1][2] - Xi emphasized the importance of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, urging both sides to avoid unilateral trade restrictions and to create a fair business environment for Chinese companies in the US [2][3] - Trump acknowledged the significance of US-China relations and expressed a desire for long-term cooperation, highlighting the potential for both countries to contribute positively to global peace and stability [2][3] Group 2: TikTok and Trade Negotiations - The discussions included the ongoing issue of TikTok, with China expressing its willingness to respect market rules and facilitate negotiations that align with Chinese laws [2][4] - The call was seen as a critical moment in the context of a 90-day "tariff truce" that is set to last until early November, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [3] - Analysts noted that the communication between the two leaders sends a positive signal for future economic negotiations and may help alleviate trade-related tensions [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Domestic crude oil prices fell nearly 2%, driven by concerns over weak demand, geopolitical factors, and increased production from OPEC+ [6][7] - Analysts pointed out that the US's poor demand outlook is overshadowing potential benefits from Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to investor concerns about oil demand [6] - OPEC+ is set to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, contributing to a supply surplus that is expected to keep oil prices under pressure [6][7] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Iran situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to market volatility and influencing oil prices [8][9] - The seasonal decline in demand due to the end of summer electricity peaks in the Middle East and ongoing maintenance at US refineries is expected to further pressure oil prices [8][9] - The overall sentiment in the oil market remains cautious, with expectations of weak price performance unless geopolitical situations worsen significantly [9]

Group 1 - The core focus of the negotiations is to reach a comprehensive agreement, indicating both parties' willingness to stabilize trade relations [5][7] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra mentioned that the U.S. and China are very close to resolving the TikTok issue, suggesting significant progress in trade agreement details [3][5] - The discussions included general talks on "trade imbalance," but no solutions were found, reflecting ongoing tensions regarding trade deficits [3][7] Group 2 - China's proposal of a "very aggressive request" during the talks indicates a shift in confidence and strategic initiative from the Chinese side [7] - The outcome of these negotiations is crucial as it may influence the potential for a direct meeting between top leaders during the upcoming APEC summit [7][8] - The timing of the negotiations coinciding with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision highlights the interconnectedness of trade negotiations and monetary policy [8]