| | 大类资产早报 | | --- | --- | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | 研究中心宏观团队 2026/01/13 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.177 | 4.372 | 3.505 | 2.840 | 3.467 | 3.231 | 0.227 | 3.332 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.090 | 6.217 | 1.858 | - | 4.703 | 4.399 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 2、二级市场 利差方面，分行业来看，申万一级行业中，AAA级行业信用利差上行最大的为食品饮料，上行2.1BP,下行 最大的为通信,下行8.3BP；AA+级行业信用利差上行最大的为钢铁，上行3.6BP,下行最大的为机械设备,下 行13.1BP；AA级行业信用利差上行最大的为电子，上行4.4BP,下行最大的为传媒,下行10.3BP。 城投债分区域来看，本期AAA级信用利差上行最多的是云南，上行6.1BP，下行最多的是贵州，下行 8.6BP；AA+级信用利差上行最多的是辽宁，上行3.1BP，下行最多的是宁夏，下行10.5BP；AA级信用利 差上行最多的是云南，上行1.5BP，下行最多的是新疆，下行11BP。 交易量方面，信用债总成交量为14 ...

摘要 根据 Wind 数据，折价成交个券中，"24 产融 08"债券估值价格偏离幅度较大。净价上涨成交个券中，"22 万科 02" 估值价格偏离程度靠前。净价上涨成交二永债中，"25 农行二级资本债 04B(BC)"估值价格偏离幅度较大；净价上涨 成交商金债中，"25 农行 TLAC 非资本债 02C(BC)"估值价格偏离幅度靠前。成交收益率高于 5%的个券中，地产债排名 靠前。 信用债估值收益变动主要分布在[-5,0)区间。非金信用债成交期限主要分布在 0.5 年内，其中 0.5 至 1 年品种折价成 交占比最高；二永债成交期限主要分布在 4 至 5 年，其中 1 年内品种折价成交占比最高。分行业看，轻工制造行业的 债券平均估值价格偏离最大。 风险提示 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 2 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价成交跟踪 | | | | | 大幅折价个券成交跟踪 | | | | | | 成交规模 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

摘要 根据 Wind 数据，折价成交个券中，"23 产融 09"债券估值价格偏离幅度较大。净价上涨成交个券中，"22 万科 06" 估值价格偏离程度靠前。净价下跌成交二永债中，"22 兴业银行二级 01"估值价格偏离幅度较小；净价下跌成交商金 债中，"25 威海银行小微债"估值价格偏离幅度较小。成交收益率高于 5%的个券中，地产债排名靠前。 信用债估值收益变动主要分布在(0,5]区间。非金信用债成交期限主要分布在 2 至 3 年，其中 3 至 4 年品种折价成交 占比最高；二永债成交期限主要分布在 4 至 5 年。分行业看，农林牧渔行业的债券平均估值价格偏离最大。 风险提示 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价成交跟踪 | | | | | 大幅折价个券成交跟踪 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 剩余期限 | 估值价格偏 | 估值净价 | 估值收益率 | 估值收益率 | 前一日估值 | ...

| 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2026/01/06 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 美元兑主要新兴经济体货币汇率 | | | | | | | | | | 巴西 | | 俄罗斯 | 南非zar | 韩元 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the weakening of the US dollar and the improvement of risk appetite led to a steeper curve overseas, while in China, loose funds drove the yield curve to steepen. The bond market remained volatile due to the supply - demand contradiction at the long end [2]. - In 2026, the PPI is facing three positive factors: the tail - lifting factor, imported inflation, and the continued effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. Under the neutral scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. The mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors to significantly affect the bond market [3][55]. - Currently, the bond market is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. There are some structural opportunities, such as the follow - up rise opportunity of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression opportunity of credit spreads [4]. Summary by Directory PART1: December 2025 - Curve Steepening Driven by Overseas and Domestic Factors Overseas - In December 2025, the Fed announced reserve management - style purchases (RMP) and continued to cut interest rates. The US dollar index weakened, liquidity improved, the US stock market rose, and risk appetite recovered. The US bond yield curve steepened due to factors like Fed's short - term bond purchase, market concerns about Fed independence, and rising commodity prices. Precious and industrial metals performed well, with copper benefiting from AI demand and gold and silver supported by geopolitical events [10][16]. Domestic - In November 2025, the domestic economic fundamentals showed a divergence between quantity and price, and in December, both supply and demand declined. The capital market was generally loose, and the overnight interest rate hit a new low for the year. The bond market remained volatile due to the long - end supply - demand contradiction, and the yield curve steepened [17][23]. - In terms of institutional behavior, large banks and insurance companies, as allocation players, increased their bond - buying in the secondary market in December. Large banks added some policy - related financial bonds and focused on 5 - 7 - year varieties. Insurance companies mainly added long - term treasury bonds. Trading players became conservative. Rural commercial banks mainly invested in certificates of deposit, funds reduced duration and mainly sold long - term treasury bonds, and wealth management products seasonally reduced bond allocation and slightly increased credit bond allocation [26][35][47]. PART2: How the 2026 Re - inflation Narrative May Affect the Bond Market 2026 PPI's Three Positive Factors - The tail - lifting factor can support the PPI to turn positive in the second half of 2026 even without new price - increasing factors [55]. - Imported inflation may occur as overseas capital expenditure and manufacturing investment are likely to rise in 2026. The US deficit rate may expand, and the Fed's new round of easing may release emerging market countries' capital expenditure demand [57]. - The "anti - involution" policy has shown a supporting effect on the PPI. Since August 2025, the month - on - month PPI of the mining industry has turned positive, driving the overall PPI to turn positive since October [60]. PPI Forecast under Different Scenarios - Under the pessimistic scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2026 with an average monthly PPI growth rate of 0%. Under the neutral scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.1%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.2%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in April 2026 and exceed 2% in the second half of the year [67]. PPI's Impact on the Bond Market - Historically, during the four PPI upward cycles since 2009, three typical upward periods were driven by the resonance of domestic and overseas demand or supply - demand. The PPI and the bond market generally move in the same direction, but there were several periods of divergence, mainly due to strong economic recovery expectations or PPI being mainly affected by the supply side while the domestic demand did not improve significantly and the monetary policy remained loose [69][71]. - In 2026, the mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors such as total demand, central bank's capital management, financial institutions' liability - side stability, and the flow of activated household deposits to significantly affect the bond market. The trading of typical total assets based on re - inflation may have limited odds [78]. PART3: Bond Market Strategy for January 2026 - In January 2026, the bond market may still be in a wait - and - see period. Potential risks include government bond supply pressure, the spring rally in the equity market, and the first - quarter credit boom. Potential positive factors include the possible relaxation of large banks' bond - allocation pressure and the relatively loose capital market, with a higher probability of a reserve - requirement ratio cut than an interest - rate cut in January [81]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. Structurally, there are opportunities such as the follow - up rise of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression of credit spreads in credit bonds [4][83].

| | | | 冠 | | --- | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/30 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.111 | 4.486 | 3.524 | 2.828 | 3.503 | 3.249 | 0.263 | 3.393 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.045 | 6.156 | 1.854 | - | 4.755 | 4.439 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.456 | 3.715 | 2.114 | 1.151 | 2.2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary markets of industrial bonds in 2025, as well as a financial analysis of different industries, aiming to provide investors with a reference for investment decisions [1][34][61] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - As of December 26, 2025, a total of 15,700 narrow - caliber credit bonds have been issued in 2025, with a total scale of 13.91 trillion yuan. After excluding urban investment bonds, 7,440 industrial bonds have been issued, with a total scale of 8.60 trillion yuan, covering 29 Shenwan primary industries [1][10] - 16 industries have an annual issuance scale exceeding 100 billion yuan, with the top - ranked industries in terms of issuance scale being public utilities (1.95 trillion yuan/1,060 bonds), non - bank finance (1.38 trillion yuan/1,407 bonds), and transportation (1.00 trillion yuan/805 bonds) [1][13] - In terms of bond types, medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, and corporate bonds have relatively high issuance amounts, accounting for 41.3%, 34.6%, and 23.0% respectively. Among special varieties, the annual issuance scale of science and technology innovation bonds accounts for over 20%, and that of green bonds accounts for 4% [16] - The scale of industrial bonds issued by central and local state - owned enterprises accounts for over 90%, and the issuers' credit ratings are mainly concentrated at the AAA level. Geographically, Beijing has the largest issuance scale, followed by Guangdong, Shanghai, and Jiangsu [20] - In terms of issuance term, the issuance scale of industrial bonds with a term of 1 year or less is the largest, accounting for 35.7%, followed by 1 - 3 years (35.1%) and 3 - 5 years (19.8%) [28] - In terms of issuance interest rate, the proportion of industrial bonds with a coupon rate of 2% or less is the highest, reaching 57%, followed by 2% - 3% (40%), and the average annual issuance coupon rate is 2.15% [31] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Trend Review - Since the beginning of the year, affected by policies, funds, and market preferences, the yield of credit bonds has experienced two rounds of first rising and then falling, showing an M - shaped trend, which can be divided into four stages [34] - From the beginning of the year to mid - March, the yield rose rapidly, and the credit spread widened to the highest level of the year. From late March to early July, the yield declined continuously, and the credit spread narrowed. From mid - July to the end of September, the yield rose again, and the credit spread widened. From October to now, the yield has declined fluctuantly, and the credit spread first narrowed and then widened [34][35][36] 2.2 Overview of Outstanding Industrial Bonds - As of December 26, 2025, there are 13,625 outstanding industrial bonds in the narrow - caliber credit bond market, with a total scale of 15.39 trillion yuan, covering 29 Shenwan primary industries [39] - The public utilities and non - bank finance industries have an outstanding industrial bond scale of over 2 trillion yuan, significantly leading other industries. The issuers of outstanding industrial bonds are mainly concentrated in high - grade central and local state - owned enterprises [39][41] - The weighted average remaining term of outstanding industrial bonds is 3.08 years. Industries with a longer weighted average remaining term include comprehensive, communication, and coal, while industries with a shorter term include media, light manufacturing, and national defense and military industry [46][49] - In terms of implicit ratings, AA(2) and AA - rated industrial bonds account for 25% in total, ranking first, followed by AA+ (24%) and AAA (19%) [52] - Taking AAA - rated industrial bonds as an example, industries such as real estate, coal, and pharmaceutical biology have relatively high spreads, with certain yield - mining potential [58] 3. Industry - Specific Financial Analysis 3.1 Profitability - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue of industrial bond issuers reached 53.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. Among the 29 industries, 11 industries achieved year - on - year positive growth in total revenue, with machinery and equipment and computer industries leading in revenue growth [62] - The total net profit of industrial bond issuers reached 2.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.32%. 16 industries achieved year - on - year positive growth in total net profit, with textile and apparel and steel industries leading in growth [62] - The non - bank finance industry has a net profit margin of over 30%, far higher than other industries, followed by environmental protection and public utilities industries, with a net profit margin of over 10% [62] 3.2 Debt Situation - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, industries such as building decoration and real estate have relatively high debt pressure, with an asset - liability ratio of over 70%, while industries such as national defense and military industry and media have relatively low debt pressure, with an asset - liability ratio of less than 50% [64] - The total interest - bearing debt of industrial bonds reached 86.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.58%. Only 4 industries, including communication, textile and apparel, electronics, and real estate, saw a year - on - year decrease in total interest - bearing debt [64] - Industries such as non - bank finance, public utilities, and social services have a relatively high proportion of interest - bearing debt to total liabilities, over 70%, while industries such as automobile and national defense and military industry have a relatively low proportion, less than 45%, with relatively low debt - repayment pressure [64] 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, industries with strong short - term debt - repayment ability include textile and apparel, national defense and military industry, media, and light manufacturing, with a coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt of over 100%, while industries such as non - bank finance, steel, and petroleum and petrochemical have relatively weak short - term debt - repayment ability, with a coverage ratio of less than 50% [66] 3.4 Cash Flow Situation - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net inflow of operating cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 18.40% year - on - year. Among the industries with positive operating cash flow, 12 industries, including comprehensive and real estate, achieved year - on - year positive growth [68] - The net inflow of financing cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 145.37% year - on - year. Among the industries with positive financing cash flow, 6 industries, including electronics and environmental protection, achieved year - on - year positive growth [68] - The net outflow of investment cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 14.33% year - on - year, with an overall increase in investment expenditure. All 29 industries had a net outflow of investment cash flow, and 19 industries, including comprehensive and computer, saw an increase in investment expenditure [68]

Key Insights - The report indicates a slight increase in credit bond issuance, with a total issuance of 1.53 trillion yuan in November, up by 217.79 billion yuan from the previous month, and a net financing increase of 170.24 billion yuan to 387.49 billion yuan [4][39] - The overall bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern due to a combination of economic fundamentals, policy expectations, and institutional behaviors, with a focus on maintaining a neutral duration strategy and enhancing portfolio flexibility [4][9][12] - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of pressure, with fixed asset investment growth declining by 2.6% and retail sales growth decreasing by 1.6 percentage points to 1.3% [7][9] Market Review - In November, the rolling default rate in the bond market was 0.20%, with one new default from the real estate sector, specifically from Aoyuan Group, which faced liquidity issues [16][18] - The manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.2, indicating a still-contractionary environment, while the central bank's liquidity operations net withdrew 375.9 billion yuan [25][30] - The secondary market saw a general increase in bond yields, with 10-year government bond yields rising by 4 basis points to 1.84% [8][39] Credit Risk and Issuance - The report highlights that credit risk remains manageable, with a total of 118 high-yield bonds issued in November, amounting to 52.84 billion yuan, and a significant increase in trading volume [5][39] - The issuance costs for credit bonds generally decreased, with rates falling between 4 to 22 basis points across various types [39][42] - The report notes that the credit spread for medium-term notes widened, particularly for 1-3 year maturities, while 5-year maturities saw a narrowing of spreads [24][39] Regional and Sectoral Insights - The report indicates that Beijing had the highest credit bond issuance at 492.4 billion yuan, with Guangdong and Shanghai also showing significant issuance [44][46] - The infrastructure financing sector saw a total issuance of 347.6 billion yuan, while the financial sector had the highest net inflow of 142.4 billion yuan [43][46] - The average issuance rates varied by industry, with the information technology sector experiencing a notable increase of 93 basis points, while the cultural industry saw a decrease of 69 basis points [43][46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent adjustment in the bond market is likely to be more of a short - term phenomenon, mainly influenced by policy expectations, sentiment, and supply - demand factors in the short term. In the long run, the bond market logic will return to the fundamentals and the capital situation. - In 2026, the core operating range of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may be between 1.7% - 1.9%, and it may maintain low - level fluctuations. Credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but the contraction amplitude may be limited [5][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Interest - rate bonds**: Since November, the yield curve has become steeper, with the adjustment pressure concentrated on the long - end. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields have fluctuated upward, with the 30 - year yield rising more significantly. The 1 - year yield has been relatively stable. The amplitude of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds since November has been 6bp, 8bp, and 14bp respectively, and the key term spreads have expanded [5][8]. - **Credit bonds**: The adjustment of credit bonds has been relatively lagging, and credit spreads have slightly widened passively. The credit bond yields first fluctuated upward, with medium - and high - grade yields rising more, and then all grades of yields declined to varying degrees. Credit bonds have recovered faster. As of December 22, the AA - grade bond yield has decreased by 9bp compared to early November, and the interest rates of higher - grade 3 - year medium - and short - term notes are similar to those at the beginning of November. Most credit spreads have widened passively, and they are still at historically low levels [5][11]. Adjustment Reasons - **Weak sentiment**: Before important policy meetings, the market entered an observation period, and there was uncertainty about policies such as next year's fiscal strength. The central bank's insufficient liquidity injection and the real - estate enterprise credit event also disturbed market sentiment [5][14]. - **Cautious institutional behavior**: Near the end of the year, under external constraints such as assessment pressure and regulatory policies, institutions' redemption and profit - taking intentions increased, and the willingness to buy was insufficient. The expectation of public - fund fee reform also led to bond - fund position adjustment and selling [5][16]. - **Supply - demand imbalance**: The supply of long - term bonds has increased while the demand has decreased. The supply of medium - and long - term Treasury bonds has increased, especially the supply of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds, while the ability of banks, insurance companies, and other institutions to absorb them is limited, and the demand from funds and other trading players has declined [5][18]. - **Insensitive to economic data**: The market has been insensitive to weak economic data, and the fundamentals have not dominated the recent interest - rate trend. The economic data has continued to show weak recovery, but the market has anticipated it in advance, and the inflation rebound has also suppressed sentiment [5][20]. Future Outlook - **Interest - rate bonds**: In 2026, the macro - policy will maintain a supportive tone of "loose money + loose finance". The weak economic recovery and abundant liquidity environment do not support a significant upward trend in bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may operate in the range of 1.7% - 1.9%, but it may fluctuate due to challenges in demand and institutional behavior. Uncertain factors such as continued weakening of the fundamentals, intensified geopolitical evolution, and the implementation of fund - fee reform need to be vigilant [22][23][24]. - **Credit bonds**: Under the moderately loose monetary policy and the "asset shortage" situation, credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but considering that they are already at historically low levels, the contraction amplitude may be limited [25].