【编者按】 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济步入新发展阶段。 新形势下，外资投行唱多中国的声音不绝于耳。高盛2026年建议高配A股和港股；摩根大通将中国内地 与香港股市评级调升至"超配"；瑞银认为，政策支持、企业盈利改善及资金流入等因素可能推动A股估 值提升。这些判断均反映出国际资本对中国经济转型方向与2026年发展前景的认同，更预示着冬去春 来，全球资本有望流向东方。 智通财经"首席连线"2026年市场展望以《春水向东流》为题，取的也是此意。展望中，"首席连线"工作 室将访谈数十位权威经济学家、基金经理和分析师，请他们谈谈对新一年中国经济的判断，解析投资新 机遇。 管涛表示，2025年金价飙升连创50多次历史新高，很重要的原因就是全球不确定性增加。其中，特朗普 关税政策是这种不确定性的主要来源。 1月5日，中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛做客智通财经"春水向东流——《首席连线》2026年市场展 望"专题，带来分析和展望。 管涛此前曾长期在政府部门工作，目前还担任中国证券业协会新一届首席经济学家（发展战略）专业委 员会的主任委员。 对于2026年海外主要经济体的货币政策，管涛认为，将进入"多速并行"阶段， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global asset classes in 2025, highlighting significant trends and shifts in investment dynamics, particularly focusing on the impact of geopolitical events, monetary policy changes, and emerging market conditions. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In 2025, global asset performance ranked as follows: global stocks (21.20%) > global bonds (8.17%) > RMB (4.44%) > 0% > commodities (-0.20%) > USD (-9.37%) [2] - Precious metals experienced a historic bull market, with gold and silver prices increasing by 64.58% and 147.95% respectively, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over USD credit [4][12] - The MSCI Emerging Markets index outperformed the MSCI Developed Markets index by 6.2 percentage points, indicating a favorable environment for emerging markets amid a weaker USD [6][50] Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market showed resilience, with the S&P 500 index rising over 16% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit returns [6][48] - Concerns over an "AI technology bubble" led to significant volatility among major U.S. tech stocks, with a 27.37% drop in their price-to-earnings ratios early in the year [5][21] - Fund managers expressed expectations of rising interest rates and favored high-quality earnings, with 75% anticipating a steepening yield curve in the next 12 months [4][41] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration led to market volatility, with gold prices surging by 14.8% in two weeks, contributing to the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [4][17] - Japan's stock index and long-term bond yields reached historical highs, with the Nikkei 225 index increasing by over 25% due to a combination of wage-inflation spirals and monetary policy normalization [7][53] - The oil market remained weak, with WTI crude oil prices fluctuating between $55 and $80 per barrel, reflecting cautious global demand and supply pressures [8][64] Group 4: Currency and Crypto Trends - The offshore RMB exchange rate fell below 7.0 against the USD, with a 9.4% decline in the USD index throughout the year, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the RMB [8][66] - The "Genius Act" led to extreme volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin's price soaring from approximately $80,000 to $158,000 before experiencing a significant drop, ending the year down 6.5% [8][60]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：凭澜观涛） 管涛预计2026年财政赤字率大概率与今年持平，货币政策更灵活高效，降准降息是可选项，结构性货币政策工具有望持续发力。 蓝鲸新闻12月30日讯（记者 李丹萍 王婉莹）2026年，是中国"十五五"规划的开局之年，承载着承前启后、谋篇布局的重要使命。 财政政策优化结构"投资于人"，货币政策"以我为主"精准发力 蓝鲸新闻：日前召开的中央经济工作会议对2026年经济工作做出了重大部署。会议总体延续了去年底的政策基调，重申"实施更加积极有为的 宏观政策"，强调"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"。"十五五"周期，您认为财政政策和货币政策分别还有哪些发力空 间，核心因素是什么？ 管涛：中央经济工作会议对明年宏观经济政策的定调，是符合市场预期的，相信宏观政策不会退坡，预计在"十五五"期间财政政策和货币政策 仍有进一步发力空间。 中央经济工作会议提出要保持必要的赤字，预计明年财政赤字率大概率与今年持平，但随着经济总量扩大，财政赤字和债务总规模和支出总量 可能略有增加，从而保持一定的财政支出强度。 需要看到的是，我们现在强调宏观政策民生导向从"投资于物"转向"投资于人"，下一步更 ...

在全球经济与政策周期分化的背景下，我国债券市场正凭借其独特的收益来源与风险特性，吸引着国际 资本的长期目光。 年终之际，中金公司研究部固收组及国际组负责人、固收首席分析师陈健恒在接受新华财经专访时指 出，"我国债券的综合回报在全球主要市场中持续靠前。对投资者而言，其价值不仅在于收益，更在于 它能有效降低整个债券组合的波动性，提升夏普比率。" 即使在2025年市场呈区间震荡、资本利得贡献减弱的背景下，人民币债券的相对吸引力依然稳固。陈健 恒分析称，"从美元投资者的视角看，对冲汇率风险后持有我国中短期债券，其综合回报仍优于美债。 若考虑人民币本身的升值潜力，总回报更具竞争力。"这一判断，揭示了在全球资产再平衡过程中，人 民币债券正从"可选项"逐步转变为"必选项"的内在逻辑。 价值重估：全球资本为何青睐人民币债券？ 在全球利率中枢高位波动、增长预期分化的宏观图景下，资本追逐的不仅是收益，更是风险调整后的回 报与资产的差异化。人民币债券提供的，正是这样一种稀缺的复合价值。 "我国货币政策与其他主要经济体的相关度较低，这使得我国债券价格波动与海外市场并不同步。"陈健 恒指出，这种低相关性是其在全球投资组合中最核心的吸引 ...

美联储若被政治化，美元信用的一个重要支柱就会动摇，谁还敢无限制地以美元计价借贷并持有美国资产。 把三件事连在一起看，就不是三道孤立的新闻，而是一条链条，链条在受力，断裂的可能性在增加，这是全球金融再定价的开端。 美债曾是世界的避风港，但避风港也会漏水，赤字、债务和政治不确定性是漏水的裂缝，而市场在修补或者撤退。 去美元化是过程不是口号，国家层面的资产配置调整是实务，是在经济与政治双重维度下的必然选择。 那么，这些动作将带来什么后果？第一，美元融资成本将上升，美国财政的外部可持续性面临更大考验。 第二，全球资产再平衡，黄金、欧元、一篮子货币或替代资产的吸引力上升，资金流向会重构。 中国大幅减持美债，还是全球债市的一声惊雷？美国盟友疯狂出逃，特朗普更换美联储主席提议如同挑衅全球信任，这三件事到底在较劲什么，谁在收场。 中国的减持不是赌气而是策略，外储配置在调整与分散的逻辑下进行，中国自有盘算与风险管理的理由明显。 数据摆在那儿，持仓从高位向下，这是多年的慢动作，是在重塑外汇安全垫，而不是一夜之间的激进甩卖。 中国连续增持黄金，这一动作像给家里保险柜再上把锁，既反映国际金融预期，又是一种避险的信号，外行看起来像胆怯 ...

2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，宏观经济环境交织着机遇与挑战。 这一年，中国金融市场在内外变局中走出独特节奏，核心领域表现亮点与韧性并存。货币政策延续"适度宽松"基调，保持"灵活高效"；人民币汇 率逆势走强，全年在多重因素支撑下稳步回升，双向波动的弹性特征愈发明显；黄金成为全球资产配置的"避风港"，国际金价屡创新高，中国人 民银行连续增持黄金…… 2025年的经济表现与政策选择，更为2026年启幕的"十五五"埋下关键伏笔：货币政策如何在"以我为主"与外部周期趋同中预留发力空间？稳汇率 面临哪些挑战？支撑黄金长期走势的核心是什么？"双循环"战略又该如何适配全球贸易格局重构？ 这些贯穿短期调控与长期布局的核心命题，既是2025年衔接期必须破解的现实难题，也是理解"十五五"经济脉络的关键切口。围绕上述问题，中 银证券全球首席经济学家管涛近日接受了北京商报记者专访。 管涛认为，2026年我国货币政策仍将坚持"以我为主"，在需兼顾总量调节与结构性工具优化创新的同时，各项政策工具将持续发力，资本市场有 望迎来政策支持。防范汇率超调将是2026年宏观调控重点之一，人民币汇率延续双向波动态势 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to strengthen, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3876.34 points, reflecting a 0.37% increase, maintaining its recent strong performance [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce an interest rate cut, marking a significant shift towards global liquidity easing, which aligns with current market expectations [2] - Goldman Sachs indicates that once the Fed opens the rate cut channel, US capital will seek investment targets globally, with A-shares being a significant allocation target [2] Group 2 - Foreign capital has shown increased interest in Chinese assets, with net foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds reaching $10.1 billion in the first half of the year, particularly surging to $18.8 billion in May and June [2] - In August, passive equity funds saw inflows into the Chinese market amounting to $3.684 billion, a significant increase from $313 million in July, while active equity funds experienced a reduced outflow [2][3] Group 3 - The current trend of foreign capital inflow is expected to be strong and sustainable, with no immediate risk of reversal [3] - The cancellation of the registration requirement for foreign investment enterprises' domestic reinvestment by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange is seen as a significant reform that reduces institutional trading costs [3] Group 4 - The improvement in China's economic fundamentals and profit expectations, along with continuous policy dividends and enhanced industrial competitiveness, are driving the strategic allocation of overseas "long money" to Chinese assets [4] - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 is reported at 5.3%, showing an increase compared to the same period in 2024, which supports foreign capital's confidence in increasing their stakes [5] Group 5 - The MSCI China Index's 12-month forward P/E ratio is only 12.1 times, significantly lower than the Nasdaq's 28 times, indicating a valuation discount of up to 20%, providing a safety margin for international capital [6] - Global funds are increasingly viewing Chinese assets as an ideal allocation choice due to their low valuation and high growth potential, especially in the context of a weakening dollar and rising economic uncertainty in the US [8] Group 6 - The influx of long-term foreign capital into the Chinese market is expected to enhance market liquidity, improve supply-demand dynamics, and elevate market activity, leading to rising stock prices [10] - The preference of foreign investors for stable, transparent governance in leading enterprises may shift the A-share market from a "liquidity premium" to a "profit premium," potentially reducing market volatility and raising long-term valuation levels [10]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by the anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lead to increased foreign investment in Chinese assets [2][3]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign capital has shown significant interest in Chinese assets, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year, particularly in May and June, where the net increase reached $18.8 billion [3]. - In August, passive equity funds saw inflows of $3.684 billion into the Chinese market, a substantial increase from $0.313 billion in July, indicating a growing trend of foreign investment [7]. - A Morgan Stanley report indicates that U.S. investors' interest in the Chinese stock market has reached its highest level since 2021, with over 90% of investors expressing a willingness to increase their exposure to the Chinese market [8]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Drivers - China's economic indicators have shown steady recovery, with GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, providing a strong foundation for foreign investment [5]. - The Chinese government has implemented policies to reduce institutional trading costs for foreign investors, such as the removal of reinvestment registration requirements for foreign-invested enterprises [6]. - The MSCI China Index's 12-month forward P/E ratio stands at 12.1 times, significantly lower than the Nasdaq's 28 times, highlighting the valuation attractiveness of Chinese assets [6]. Group 3: Market Impact and Future Outlook - The influx of long-term foreign capital is expected to enhance market liquidity, improve supply-demand dynamics, and drive stock prices higher [9]. - The investment behavior of foreign long-term funds is likely to shift domestic investors' focus towards long-term value, fundamentals, and dividend capabilities, reducing speculative trading [9]. - The preference of foreign investors for stable, well-governed leading companies may lead to a transition in the A-share market from "liquidity premium" to "profit premium," potentially stabilizing market volatility and enhancing long-term valuation [9].

Key Insights - The report highlights a potential turning point for the US dollar, indicating a shift from strong to weak, which may lead to a systematic revaluation of Chinese technology assets during the global asset rebalancing process [4][5][6] - The report identifies specific companies as key investment opportunities, including 京沪高铁, 桐昆股份, 雅克科技, 宁德时代, 恒瑞医药, 三友医疗, 北京人力, 菲利华, 兆易创新, and 鹏鼎控股 [1] Strategy Research - The report discusses the implications of a weak dollar environment, suggesting that it could benefit Chinese technology assets as they undergo a revaluation process [6] - It notes that the current long-wave economic downturn is characterized by global restructuring and asset price volatility, which could create investment opportunities in emerging markets and non-US equities [4][5] Electric Equipment Sector - 通威股份 reported a significant loss in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 405.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.51% year-on-year, and a net loss of 49.55 billion yuan, which has expanded compared to the previous year [7][8] - The company maintains a strong position in the photovoltaic sector, with a global market share of approximately 30% in polysilicon sales and leading sales in solar cells and modules [8] - The report anticipates a recovery in profits for 通威股份 in the second half of 2025, driven by rising silicon prices due to regulatory changes aimed at reducing "involution" in the industry [9] Retail Sector - 王府井 reported a revenue of 5.361 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 11.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 81 million yuan, a decrease of 72.33% [15][16] - The company is undergoing a transformation to adapt to changing consumer preferences, with a focus on enhancing its business ecosystem and launching new retail formats [17] - The report highlights the resilience of the outlet business, which saw a revenue increase, while other segments faced challenges due to store closures and changing consumption patterns [16]

Group 1 - The report highlights a turning point for the US dollar from strong to weak, indicating a potential global asset rebalancing and a systematic revaluation of Chinese technology assets during this weak dollar cycle [1][2][3] - The long wave economic downturn is characterized by global restructuring, evolving competitive landscapes, and asset price volatility, with the current strong dollar cycle facing a turning point [2][15][20] - The report suggests that the US economy's long-term concerns and increasing policy uncertainty are undermining the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset, leading to a shift in global capital allocation [24][20][29] Group 2 - In a weak dollar environment, Chinese technology assets are expected to benefit from the revaluation of RMB-denominated assets, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks positioned as core beneficiaries in the global asset rebalancing process [2][17][20] - The report anticipates that during the interest rate cut cycle, Hong Kong stocks will benefit from global liquidity shifts and domestic profit turning points, with scarce technology assets and high-dividend state-owned enterprises becoming key investment themes [2][20][21] - A-shares are projected to benefit from the RMB asset revaluation process, with expected recovery and valuation support, leading to a structural bull market in small-cap growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector [2][20][21]