分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨公司点评丨赛恩斯（688480.SH） [Table_Title] 赛恩斯 2025H1 点评：运营服务和产品销售增速 亮眼, 看好公司品类扩张潜力 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 赛恩斯 2025H1 营收同比增长 18.8%，扣非归母净利润 4722 万元，同比降 12.7%。剔除 2024H1 一次性投资收益影响后，2025H1 归母利润同比降低 8.75%，主要受综合解决方案业务拖累， 运营服务和产品销售增速亮眼（营收同比+53.0%、+41.8%）。铜萃取剂产能扩张实现倍增，资 源化以及新材料项目逐步落地。公司存多个在研项目，看好技术优势带来的品类扩张，有望打 开新的成长空间。 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490524080004 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BWM115 徐科 王鹤涛 王筱茜 李博文 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 ...

出品｜虎嗅商业消费组 作者｜柳柳 编辑｜苗正卿 题图｜萨洛蒙 亚玛芬近日交出了一份漂亮的半年报，2025年第二季度，亚玛芬营收同比增长23%至12.36亿美元。 二季度，亚玛芬毛利率增长270个基点至58.5%；调整后毛利率增长250个基点至58.7%；营业利润增长614%至4400万美元；调整后营业利润增长130% 至6700万美元，其中包括第二季度收到的1900万美元政府补助。 | For the Three and Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 and 2024 | | --- | | (Unaudited) | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | For the three months | | | | | | | For the six months ended | | | ended June 30, | | | | | | | June 30, | | | In millions (except for earnings per share inform ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but certain segments like waterproof coatings and paints showed resilience and growth despite industry challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, and a net profit of 1.93 billion yuan, down 12.8% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 7.312 billion yuan, a decline of 4.5%, with net profit at 1.087 billion yuan, down 21.9% [1]. Segment Analysis - **Gypsum Board Business**: Revenue decreased by 8.57% to 6.677 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a slight decline in gross margin to 38.68%. Despite demand pressure, the company maintained pricing power due to high market share [2][3]. - **Keel Business**: Revenue fell by 10.72% to 1.137 billion yuan, but gross margin improved by 0.43 percentage points to 21.65%. There is significant potential for growth in the keel business due to low current matching rates [2]. - **Waterproof Business**: Revenue was approximately 2.49 billion yuan, growing by 6%, with net profit of 140 million yuan, also up 6%. The business showed resilience despite a downturn in new real estate starts [3]. - **Coating Business**: Revenue reached around 2.16 billion yuan, a significant increase of 44.4%, with net profit of 170 million yuan, up 31.8%. The integration of Jia Baoli has led to notable improvements in both revenue and profit [3]. Growth Outlook - The company is expected to strengthen its long-term growth logic through stable profitability and continued pricing power, even in a weak demand environment [3]. - There are opportunities for category expansion and accelerated mergers and acquisitions, particularly in light steel keels and panels, which can leverage existing sales channels [3]. - Projections for non-deductible net profit for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4.56 billion, 5.472 billion, and 6.567 billion yuan, respectively [3]. Investment Considerations - The company is not currently considering mergers and acquisitions, with expected earnings of 3.95 billion and 4.58 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 11.4 and 9.8 times [4]. - The valuation is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for future elasticity with the possibility of recovery in the economic cycle [4].

其中，亚太和大中华区成为增长最为显著的区域。营收增长最快的亚太地区（不含中国），同比增长47%达3.11亿美元；其次是大中华区（中国 内地、香港、澳门、中国台湾），同比增长42%至8.56亿美元，约占总收入31.61%。 在这份亮眼业绩背后，鞋履业务的爆发与女性市场的突破成为关键支撑，尤其在始祖鸟与萨洛蒙两大品牌的战略布局中，这一趋势更为显著。 这背后是，始祖鸟增长动能减弱，面临品类扩张挑战，正在向装备商转型，萨洛蒙则持续强化鞋类优势，亚玛芬正在通过萨洛蒙等高增长品牌平 衡始祖鸟增速放缓。 整体来看，鞋履业务更在成为亚玛芬增长新引擎。亚玛芬全球首席执行官郑捷在电话会上表示，第二季度，鞋履依旧是始祖鸟增长最快的品类， 增速高于品牌整体。以萨洛蒙鞋类业务为代表的山地户外服饰及装备第二季度营收同比则增长35%至4.14亿美元，在固定汇率基准下同比增长 32%，成为三大板块中增速最快板块，首次超过户外功能性服饰板块，被视为扛起"下一个始祖鸟"的大旗。 亚玛芬首席执行官郑捷（James Zheng）表示，"第二季度，亚玛芬的强劲势头得以延续，其独特的高端技术品牌组合在全球体育和户外市场持续 开拓空白领域并抢占份额。"需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned as the purest player in the hard discount sector, being the second-largest listed company in the bulk snack industry, with strong scale effects and bargaining power, indicating promising growth potential through store expansion and category diversification [1][4]. Industry Trends - The offline retail sector is undergoing significant transformation, with the expansion of bulk snack categories being a necessary choice for industry development. The industry has entered a duopoly competition landscape, making it difficult for new entrants to disrupt the competitive dynamics [2]. - The bulk snack category features high gross margins and impulsive consumer behavior, with average transaction values typically ranging from 20 to 30 yuan, making it challenging to exceed 100 yuan [2]. - The discount retail format currently accounts for only about 4% of the market in China, compared to over 40% in Europe and more than 20% in the U.S., indicating substantial room for growth [2]. Company Strategy - The company plans to expand into categories such as trendy toys, frozen products, baked goods, and marinated foods, which are expected to become important growth directions. The strategy includes enhancing consumer stickiness through a "high-frequency drives low-frequency" approach and addressing management challenges associated with high-frequency categories [2][3]. - The company aims to launch the "Trendy Toy 630 Plan" to broaden its trendy toy product pool and upgrade the display of trendy toy shelves, focusing on high efficiency and differentiated offerings [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 54 billion, 64.3 billion, and 73.4 billion yuan, with net profits of 936 million, 1.292 billion, and 1.602 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 219%, 38%, and 24% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 33 and 24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, suggesting significant potential for market capitalization growth [5]. Investment Recommendations - The company is recognized for its scale, first-mover advantage, and management capabilities, with over 15,000 stores enhancing its bargaining power within the supply chain. As subsidy expenses decrease, there is potential for net profit margin improvement [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is considered the purest player in the hard discount sector and is the only listed company in the bulk snack market, possessing scale, first-mover, and management advantages. The company has over 15,000 stores, strong bargaining power in the supply chain, and potential for improved net profit margins as subsidy costs decrease. Additionally, the bulk snack stores effectively meet the consumption needs of lower-tier markets, allowing for continuous category expansion and significant growth potential [2][3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 540 billion, 643 billion, and 734 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 9.36 billion, 12.92 billion, and 16.02 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 219%, 38%, and 24%. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 33 and 24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating substantial room for market capitalization growth due to the company's rarity and growth potential [3][4]. Category Expansion - The company is transitioning from a "snack+" model to a "discount supermarket" model, driven by the need to address the challenges of scale inefficiency and low-price competition in the retail sector. The bulk snack channel has become a significant player in the snack category, with expectations of revenue exceeding 500 billion yuan by 2025. The industry is moving towards a dual oligopoly competition structure, where leading companies have a competitive edge due to their scale and first-mover advantages [12][13][14]. Consumer Demand and Market Position - The bulk snack channel meets consumer demands for "more, faster, better, and cheaper," with a typical customer price point of 20-30 yuan. The channel's products are priced at 70-80% of those in other channels, making it an attractive option for consumers. The company aims to leverage its scale and bargaining power to capture market share in lower-tier cities [15][16][20]. Store Experience and Product Offering - The company's stores are designed to enhance consumer experience, featuring clear product area divisions and engaging layouts that encourage deeper exploration of the store. The introduction of diverse product categories, including fresh food, baked goods, and toys, aims to create a one-stop shopping experience that meets various consumer needs [63][68][70].

Core Viewpoint - Stone Technology's decision to raise $500 million through a secondary listing in Hong Kong, despite having a cash reserve of 6.5 billion, reflects the intense competition and financial pressures in the smart cleaning industry, transitioning from a blue ocean to a red ocean market [1][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Stone Technology reported revenue of 11.945 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.03%, but the net profit fell by 3.64% to 1.977 billion [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue growth surge to 86.22%, while net profit plummeted by 32.92% [2]. - The gross margin for the main business dropped from 53.93% in 2024 to 50.14%, with net margin decreasing by 7.15 percentage points [2]. - Sales expenses skyrocketed to 2.967 billion in 2024, a 73.23% increase, and further surged by 169.25% to 951 million in Q1 2025, constituting 27.74% of revenue [2]. Market Dynamics - The overseas revenue proportion exceeded domestic for the first time in 2024, reaching 53.48%, but the overseas gross margin fell by 6.74 percentage points [3]. - The North American market, a key growth driver, faced challenges due to U.S. tariffs imposed in February 2025, alongside significant foreign exchange losses exceeding 20 million over two years [3]. Competitive Landscape - The smart cleaning market is experiencing intense competition, with a CR5 concentration of 80% in the domestic robot vacuum market, leading to aggressive pricing strategies [4]. - Stone Technology's strategy included price reductions and promotions, resulting in a 26% price cut for the Q7 Max Plus in Europe, which caused gross margins to dip below 50% [4]. - The company achieved a shipment volume of 3.2965 million units, capturing 16.4% of the global market share, but this has eroded long-term profitability [4]. Technological Advancements - Stone Technology launched the G30 Space exploration version in January 2025, featuring a pioneering 5-axis folding bionic mechanical arm, enhancing its high-end product line [4]. - R&D expenses rose by 36.9% to 266 million in Q1 2025, indicating a significant investment in innovation amidst ongoing profit pressures [4]. Strategic Initiatives - To mitigate trade risks, Stone Technology initiated a production project in Vietnam, expected to cover over half of its U.S. market demand [5]. - The company is expanding its product categories, with a notable increase in online retail share for floor washing machines, rising by 7.4 percentage points to 11.8% in early 2025 [5]. Capital Market Movements - The decision to pursue a secondary listing in Hong Kong is seen as a strategic move to align with the company's international revenue structure and to secure funding amidst declining investor confidence [6]. - The founder's cash-out of 888 million over two years and a significant reduction in institutional investor holdings from 68% to 55% reflect a loss of market confidence [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.184 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.03%, while achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 285 million yuan, an increase of 5.91% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's Q1 2025 revenue breakdown includes 885 million yuan from the OTC segment (down 12.12% YoY), 187 million yuan from the prescription drug segment (up 23.68% YoY), and 111 million yuan from the health segment (up 0.59% YoY) [1] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 were 68.21% and 24.06%, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.20 percentage points and 2.94 percentage points YoY [1] Group 2: Cost Management - The company's expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs in Q1 2025 were 33.80%, 4.51%, 2.28%, and -1.49%, showing changes of -1.79, +1.31, -0.07, and +0.20 percentage points YoY, respectively [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.9 billion yuan, 5.542 billion yuan, and 6.224 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 13%, and 12% [2] - The projected net profits attributable to shareholders for the same period are 890 million yuan, 1.028 billion yuan, and 1.172 billion yuan, with growth rates of 13%, 16%, and 14% [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with projected PE valuations of 16, 14, and 12 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit growth indicating a solid operational foundation and potential for future expansion in product categories [2][3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 802 million yuan, up 22.66% [2]. - For Q4 2024, the company recorded revenue of 1.573 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.30%, and a net profit of 179 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 56.03% [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 1.593 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.22%, with net profit reaching 209 million yuan, up 7.10% [2][3]. Operational Stability - The company's Q4 2024 gross margin was 22.48%, down 2.65 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 gross margin was 27.68%, showing a minor decline of 0.17 percentage points [3]. - The period expense ratio for Q4 2024 was 4.78%, a decrease of 7.67% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to reductions in management and financial expense ratios [3]. - The company recorded an asset impairment loss of 80 million yuan in Q4 2024, which slightly impacted quarterly performance [3]. Product Expansion and Growth Potential - The company has established itself as a global leader in sunshade products, holding over 40% market share in 2022, and is now expanding into headrest and ceiling products [4][5]. - The headrest business is expected to grow as the company increases its supply to major clients like Chrysler and Ford [4]. - The ceiling products, which share core manufacturing processes with sunshades, present significant market potential and are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth as new contracts are secured [5]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 927 million yuan and 1.091 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.280 billion yuan [6]. - Corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected at 0.56 yuan, 0.66 yuan, and 0.77 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with price-to-earnings ratios of 14.26, 12.12, and 10.33 [6]. - The expansion into new product categories is expected to enhance growth prospects, leading to a maintained "buy" rating for the company's stock [6].

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon's recent financial performance shows strong growth, but the brand faces challenges in maintaining its core identity while expanding into new product categories, leading to concerns about long-term sustainability and brand dilution [4][5][6][29]. Financial Performance - In the fiscal year 2024, Lululemon reported a net profit of 1.815 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.06%, with revenue growth in China reaching 46% [4]. - Despite strong quarterly results, the guidance for fiscal year 2025 fell below market expectations, causing a significant drop in stock price [6]. Market Dynamics - The brand's sales in the U.S. are expected to slow down, compounded by rising supply chain costs and tariff impacts on profit margins [7]. - Lululemon is expanding its presence in lower-tier cities, with nearly 25% of its stores located in second and third-tier cities, targeting a broader demographic including male consumers [9]. Brand Strategy Shift - The brand is shifting focus from its core yoga products to include a wider range of apparel, such as outerwear and accessories, which has led to concerns about losing its original brand identity [5][13]. - Lululemon has begun to break its "no discount" policy, actively participating in e-commerce promotions and opening outlet stores, indicating a shift towards a more mainstream market approach [11][12]. Target Audience Evolution - The brand is increasingly targeting male consumers, as evidenced by partnerships with male ambassadors and the opening of dedicated men's stores [9][29]. - The traditional core audience of high-income women is shrinking, prompting Lululemon to adapt its strategy to attract a more diverse customer base [29]. Competitive Landscape - Lululemon's expansion into non-yoga categories has yielded short-term revenue growth, but the brand faces challenges in competing with established sports brands like Nike and Adidas in terms of product specialization and technology [31][34]. - The brand's reliance on community-driven marketing is being tested as it shifts towards a broader appeal, which may dilute its premium positioning [15][35]. Industry Trends - The yoga market is becoming more mainstream, with increasing competition from alternative fitness trends like Pilates, which are gaining popularity among the same demographic [26]. - Changing consumer values, particularly among younger generations, are shifting away from collective brand identities towards individual expression, impacting Lululemon's traditional marketing strategies [27].