囚徒困境

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9.9包邮要成历史?从免邮到凑单30元,多花的钱换来了什么服务?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-05 04:49
打开现在的购物软件,以前随手买的9块9包邮手机壳、指甲刀,现在要么悄悄涨了价,要么包邮门槛变 高了,之前满20块就能免邮,现在不少店得凑到30块才行,难道9.9包邮的时代,真要结束了? 过去几年网上那么多低价包邮商品,看着是咱消费者占了便宜,实际上是快递行业在背后"赔本赚吆 喝",快递公司为了抢生意,把单价压得越来越低,商家才敢搞9块9包邮,可现在不一样了,快递行业 的利润已经薄到快撑不下去,这种模式自然难以为继。 说实在的,低价包邮背后藏着不少糟心事,之前买过一个12块的充电线,虽说免运费,但等了足足四天 才到,拆开一看包装都破了,后来想退换,一问寄回去的运费要15块,比充电线本身还贵,最后只能自 认倒霉,看似省了几块运费,其实要承担时效慢、售后难的麻烦,这点大家应该都有体会。 未来,纯纯的9块9包邮可能真的越来越少,但也不是说低价快递就没了,更可能的是快递服务分了层: 要是买个不着急用的小物件,还是能找到便宜快递;但要是买生鲜、电子产品这种急需或者怕坏的东 西,快递费可能会贵点,但送得快、包装好,售后也省心。 对咱来说,不用纠结有没有9块9包邮,关键是看花的运费值不值这个服务。 快递行业窘境 9.9包邮 ...
20年芯片采购,我的一些思考和成单经验
芯世相· 2025-09-25 07:36
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by sales and procurement professionals in the chip distribution industry, emphasizing the need for effective strategies to identify genuine opportunities and manage client relationships to enhance sales performance [1][2][10]. Group 1: Sales Challenges - Sales professionals often encounter clients who inquire about prices without making purchases, leading to frustration and wasted efforts [1][10]. - There is a common issue where salespeople provide numerous quotes but fail to secure any orders, indicating a need for better client assessment [10][12]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding the true value and potential of clients rather than blindly quoting prices [10][12]. Group 2: Procurement Issues - Procurement professionals face pressure from competitors who can match or undercut their pricing, creating a challenging environment for securing orders [2][20]. - There is a lack of alternative sourcing channels beyond well-known platforms, which limits procurement options [2][20]. - The article points out that procurement teams often struggle with high workloads and insufficient orders, leading to dissatisfaction [2][20]. Group 3: Personal Experience and Insights - The author shares a personal journey from a procurement background to entrepreneurship, highlighting the evolution of skills and knowledge gained over years in the industry [3][4][5]. - The transition from traditional procurement roles to establishing a new business model in the chip distribution sector is discussed, emphasizing the importance of adapting to market changes [5][6]. - The author reflects on the significance of time management and data analysis in improving procurement efficiency and decision-making [4][6]. Group 4: Course Offerings - A course titled "Chip Distribution Money-Making Practical Camp" is introduced, focusing on practical strategies for identifying opportunities and managing risks in sales [9][22]. - The course aims to teach participants how to analyze client needs, understand market dynamics, and navigate the complexities of the chip distribution landscape [9][22]. - Specific topics include customer classification, negotiation tactics, and risk management strategies to enhance sales outcomes [9][22].
竞争残酷,价格战惨烈,咋办?让任正非告诉你:如何驾驭价格竞争
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 02:15
Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing intense price wars across various industries, leading to unsustainable pricing that raises concerns about quality and profitability [1] Group 1: Price Wars and Industry Impact - Many industries, including food delivery and electric vehicles, are engaged in fierce price competition, resulting in prices that are often unreasonably low [1] - The example of a dish priced at 50-60 yuan, when it should reasonably be 100-200 yuan, illustrates the irrationality of current pricing strategies [1] - In the electric vehicle sector, some brands are reportedly selling cars at a loss, with costs exceeding 200,000 yuan but prices dropping to around 100,000 yuan [1] Group 2: Strategies for Coping with Price Competition - Companies must adopt effective business models and strategies to navigate the competitive landscape, as highlighted by Huawei's approach [4] - Huawei emphasizes the importance of product, technology, and performance leadership, alongside robust marketing and optimization of mature products to maintain market dominance [4] - The focus should be on building competitive advantages in technology, quality, cost, and service to foster a positive cycle of growth [4] Group 3: The Dangers of Zero-Sum Thinking - Viewing competitors as enemies leads to a zero-sum mentality, which is detrimental to long-term success and industry health [9] - The belief that one company's gain is another's loss can trap businesses in a narrow mindset, hindering overall industry growth [9][10] - A collaborative approach, where companies recognize mutual benefits, is essential for sustainable industry development [10] Group 4: The Importance of Cooperation - Cooperation and win-win strategies are vital for maintaining industry health and avoiding destructive price wars [12] - Companies should focus on enhancing quality, reducing costs, and improving services rather than engaging in price-cutting tactics that harm the entire industry [12][13] - Maintaining reasonable profit margins and avoiding market disruption is crucial for long-term survival and success [12]
再次暂停实施24%关税90天:中美关税博弈背后的“重复囚徒困境”
3 6 Ke· 2025-08-21 03:43
Group 1 - In the late 1980s, Nintendo dominated the gaming industry with a 95% market share in Japan and 83% in North America, but this changed dramatically by the mid-1990s due to Sony's entry into the market [1][2] - The introduction of CD-ROM technology by Sony allowed for larger game sizes and lower costs, prompting Nintendo to consider upgrading from cartridge-based systems [2] - A partnership was formed between Nintendo and Sony to leverage Sony's technology while Nintendo maintained strict control over third-party licensing, but this partnership soon faced significant challenges [2][3] Group 2 - The partnership between Nintendo and Sony collapsed when Nintendo discovered a control rights loophole in their agreement, leading to Nintendo secretly negotiating with Philips [3][4] - At the 1991 CES, Sony was blindsided by Nintendo's announcement of a partnership with Philips, prompting Sony to launch the PlayStation independently, which became a major success [3][4] - The PlayStation sold approximately 100 million units, while Nintendo's subsequent console, the Nintendo 64, struggled due to its reliance on cartridges and high costs [3][4] Group 3 - The conflict between Nintendo and Sony exemplifies a "prisoner's dilemma," where both companies prioritized individual gains over collaboration, leading to suboptimal outcomes for both [4] - The dynamics of repeated interactions in trade negotiations, such as the U.S.-China tariff disputes, reflect similar patterns of behavior seen in the gaming industry rivalry [4][6] - The strategies employed in these repeated games highlight the importance of cooperation and the potential pitfalls of short-sighted tactics [4][6]
餐饮“回收人”,默默“送”走无数小店
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-20 23:36
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe impact of the ongoing subsidy war in the food delivery industry on small and medium-sized restaurant businesses, highlighting the struggle for survival amidst aggressive competition and changing consumer behavior. Group 1: Industry Overview - The food delivery market has seen a massive influx of over 800 billion in subsidies from e-commerce platforms, leading to a "subsidy war" that has intensified competition in the industry [3][49]. - Many small restaurant owners are facing a "prisoner's dilemma," where they must choose between participating in the subsidy programs, which erode profits, or opting out and risking a significant drop in orders [18][20]. Group 2: Financial Impact on Restaurants - A notable example includes a tea shop that saw its daily orders increase from 200 to 800, but its profit margin plummeted from 15% to 6% due to the high costs associated with subsidies [5][25]. - In another case, a noodle shop that refused to participate in subsidies experienced a 40% drop in orders over three months, leading to potential closure [28]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior Changes - The subsidy war has altered consumer expectations, with 75% of consumers preferring cheaper delivery options over dining in, and 86% indicating they would choose delivery if it was cheaper than in-store prices [49]. - This shift in consumer behavior has resulted in a significant decline in dine-in orders, with many customers opting to order delivery even while sitting in restaurants [32]. Group 4: Survival Strategies for Restaurants - Some restaurants are adapting by focusing on unique offerings or enhancing their operational efficiency, such as a dessert shop that improved its profit margin to 12% by abandoning low-price subsidies and focusing on in-store sales [44]. - Others are leveraging technology to reduce costs, with one restaurant implementing an AI inventory system that decreased food waste and improved turnover rates [46]. Group 5: Long-term Industry Outlook - The article suggests that while many small restaurants are struggling, there are also success stories among those who have adapted their business models to thrive in the new environment [39][41]. - The ongoing changes in the industry may lead to a natural selection process, where only those businesses that can innovate and adjust to the new market conditions will survive [50][52].
多地快递行业协会发布“反内卷”声明 价格上去了 如何保质量?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 21:14
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese express delivery industry, despite its rapid growth, is facing challenges due to a price war leading to "involution" and a call for a shift from low-cost competition to high-quality development [1][3][7] Industry Growth and Challenges - The express delivery industry in China has been growing at an average annual rate of 30%, making it the largest express market globally [1] - In July, the postal industry reported a revenue of 1,449.8 billion yuan, with express delivery revenue reaching 1,206.4 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year growth [3] - However, there is a mismatch between the growth in business volume and revenue, with some companies experiencing a decline in per-package revenue [3][5] Price War and Its Implications - The industry is experiencing a "volume increase, profit decrease" phenomenon, known as "price inversion," where companies are forced to lower prices to gain market share [3][5] - The average price of express delivery has dropped to around 1 yuan, with extreme cases of prices as low as 0.8 yuan for nationwide delivery [3][5] - The competition is characterized by high levels of service homogeneity, leading to price being the primary competitive factor [5] Response to Involution - Industry associations are advocating for a transition to high-quality development, emphasizing that price increases should be accompanied by service improvements [1][6][7] - Technological upgrades, such as the introduction of unmanned delivery vehicles, are seen as key to enhancing service quality and reducing costs [6] - Service innovations, including scheduled deliveries and optimized cash-on-delivery services, are being introduced to differentiate offerings and improve customer retention [6] Policy Support and Future Outlook - Recent government policies, such as a unified 6% VAT rate for express services, aim to reduce tax burdens and support quality improvements [6] - The industry is also witnessing consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, which may help companies achieve profitability [6][7] - The ultimate challenge lies in balancing price increases with enhanced service quality to retain customers and achieve sustainable growth [7]
苦电鸡久矣的路人,正在悄悄给电动车放气
虎嗅APP· 2025-08-15 13:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and societal implications of electric scooters (referred to as "电鸡") in urban environments, particularly in Guangzhou, highlighting the tension between pedestrians and scooter riders due to safety and parking issues [5][10][71]. Group 1: Electric Scooter Prevalence - As of the end of 2024, the social ownership of electric two-wheelers in China is approximately 425 million, surpassing the number of cars at 353 million, making them the most common short-distance travel tool [56]. - In 2023, China accounted for nearly 6 million electric two-wheeler sales, representing 78% of global sales, establishing it as the largest market for electric scooters [56]. - The rapid urbanization and the lack of efficient public transport options have created a significant demand for electric scooters as a cost-effective and efficient means of transportation [58][60]. Group 2: Urban Planning and Policy Impact - The ban on motorcycles in cities has led to a policy vacuum, where electric scooters have filled the gap, but without designated lanes, leading to conflicts with pedestrians and vehicles [60][67]. - Guangzhou's infrastructure is particularly inadequate for electric scooters, with only 32% of main and secondary roads having non-motorized vehicle lanes, compared to 90% in cities like Beijing and Shanghai [64][67]. - The historical context of urban planning in Guangzhou, which prioritized public transport over two-wheeled vehicles, has contributed to the current challenges faced by electric scooter users [67][70]. Group 3: Safety and Social Dynamics - Electric scooters are involved in a significant percentage of traffic injuries, with data indicating they account for 60%-80% of trauma cases in major hospitals in Guangzhou [72]. - The article notes a growing resentment towards electric scooters, with some advocating for their outright ban, reflecting a societal struggle to balance convenience and safety [73][75]. - The dynamics between pedestrians, scooter riders, and vehicle drivers create a competitive environment for road space, leading to a cycle of frustration and conflict among all parties involved [80][81].
“反内卷”政策专题:“反内卷”政策的脉络与展望
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-13 12:14
Group 1 - The concept of "involution" refers to a process where internal complexity increases under external constraints, leading to ineffective competition and diminishing returns on effort [1][8][14] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address excessive competition and improve resource allocation efficiency, particularly in industries like steel and agriculture, where profit margins have been severely compressed [3][14][21] - The current economic structure in China shows a mismatch between supply and demand, with overcapacity in traditional industries and insufficient consumer demand, necessitating a shift towards high-quality development [20][25][30] Group 2 - The central government has established a comprehensive policy framework to combat "involution," which includes legal reforms, industry regulations, and measures to enhance labor rights [2][31][34] - Specific industries such as non-ferrous metals, photovoltaics, and automobiles are experiencing heightened scrutiny and regulatory measures to curb "involution" and promote sustainable growth [2][36][38] - The automotive industry is particularly affected by price wars, which threaten profitability and product quality, prompting calls for adherence to fair competition principles [43] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to stabilize industrial product prices and improve industry concentration, as seen in previous supply-side reforms that led to significant profit recovery in sectors like steel [3][4][14] - The photovoltaic industry faces challenges from low-cost competition, which has led to a decline in profit margins and necessitates a focus on innovation and quality improvement [38][42] - The non-ferrous metals sector is undergoing adjustments to address overcapacity and ensure sustainable development, with new regulations aimed at balancing supply and demand [36][37] Group 4 - Future policies will focus on creating a unified national market and optimizing competition order, with an emphasis on preventing price dumping and promoting industry self-regulation [4][31] - The relationship between "anti-involution" and the establishment of a unified market is crucial for addressing market distortions and fostering a fair competitive environment [4][31] - The ongoing adjustments in various industries highlight the need for a coordinated approach to manage capacity and enhance overall market efficiency [2][36][38]
银行业的“内卷”与“反内卷”|银行与保险
清华金融评论· 2025-08-13 08:55
Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "involution" is spreading in the financial sector, leading to excessive competition among banks, which has prompted regulatory actions to restore a healthy market order [3][10]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Involution - Involution refers to a situation where individual entities continuously invest resources without achieving systemic efficiency improvements, resulting in diminishing returns and overall inefficiency [5]. - In the banking sector, involution manifests as irrational market behaviors, including price wars, homogenized business models, and ineffective assessment systems [7]. Group 2: Causes of Banking Involution - The mismatch between supply and demand, along with the deepening of interest rate marketization, contributes to banking involution. There is a structural contrast between accumulating deposits and shrinking credit demand [8]. - The Loan Market Quotation Rate (LPR) mechanism has led to a market-driven pricing system, but the simultaneous decline in credit demand and LPR has pressured banks' net interest margins, pushing them into irrational price competition [8]. Group 3: Consequences of Involution - Involution is eroding the operational safety margins of banks, compressing interest margin revenues, and potentially weakening the ability to accumulate capital internally. The average net interest margin of commercial banks fell to 1.43% in Q1 2025, down 75 basis points from historical highs [9]. - The intensification of scale-driven competition has led to a relaxation of risk management standards, increasing the likelihood of asset quality deterioration and higher non-performing loan rates [9]. Group 4: Responses to Involution - Following the central government's call to regulate irrational price competition, various banking associations have implemented measures to curb involution, such as establishing governance frameworks and self-regulatory agreements [11]. - Banks are encouraged to adopt differentiated operational strategies and enhance service value to regain competitive advantages, focusing on product innovation and customized solutions [13]. Group 5: Future Directions - Strengthening the legal and regulatory framework is essential to address irrational competition, with a focus on enhancing enforcement and establishing rapid response mechanisms for competitive misconduct [13]. - Optimizing internal assessment mechanisms and fostering innovation talent are crucial for banks to transition from scale-based evaluations to multidimensional performance metrics, thereby enhancing service quality and customer satisfaction [14].
【有本好书送给你】从超市排队到核战争:看懂这场叫‘人生’的无限博弈
重阳投资· 2025-08-13 07:32
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading and its role in personal growth and understanding complex concepts, particularly in economics [1][2][6]. Group 1: Reading and Engagement - The publication encourages readers to maintain a habit of reading and offers a platform for discussion through comments [2][4]. - Each issue will feature a book review, book list, or excerpts, fostering a community of readers [3]. Group 2: Featured Book - The highlighted book is "Unexpected Economics" by Timothy Taylor, which explores how economics applies to everyday life and decision-making [8]. - An interactive topic invites readers to share their experiences related to the book's theme, specifically the practical applications of economics in daily life [8]. Group 3: Economic Concepts - The article discusses various economic scenarios, such as queueing at supermarkets and airline overbooking, illustrating how these situations reflect human decision-making and economic principles [9][12]. - It introduces the concept of the "prisoner's dilemma" to explain how individual rational choices can lead to collective disadvantages [13][15]. Group 4: Solutions to Economic Dilemmas - The article outlines strategies to overcome the prisoner's dilemma, including repeated interactions, punishment mechanisms, institutional design, and signaling to reduce misjudgments [18][20][22][23]. - It emphasizes that competition can be a form of cooperation, highlighting the interconnectedness of market dynamics [24][27]. Group 5: The Essence of Economics - The article argues that economics is not merely about greed but involves understanding human behavior and decision-making under constraints [29][30]. - It stresses the importance of designing choice frameworks that respect individual decisions while promoting collective welfare [30].