VLCC 有效运力呈现隐形收缩趋势，2024-2025 年新船交付几乎真空， 大量老旧船舶流入影子船队，对主流合规市场贡献小，新船订单更多是 置换而非新增，有效运力三年内增速有限。 制裁与影子船队是支撑大周期运行的重要因素，欧盟和英国联合制裁影 子船队，美国加大对俄罗斯石油公司制裁，引发租家抢订合规船只的需 求，逐步减少老旧不合规船只。 至 4 倍。这些变化进一步推高了运价。 当前高位运行是否具有持续性？ 对话油轮专家：运价持续突破，后续市场如何展望？ 20251123 摘要 俄乌冲突重塑全球原油贸易格局，导致俄罗斯至欧洲的短程贸易转向远 东和印度等长航线，显著拉长平均航程，推高吨海里数，成为油运市场 运价上涨的关键因素。 VLCC 有效运力收缩明显，上周可追踪的 VLCC 货盘成交量达 67 艘，高 于年内平均水平，中东未来 30 天可用 VLCC 船位紧张，供给偏紧支撑 运价高位运行，且市场对高景气度持续性抱有信心。 地缘政治风险放大油运市场波动，俄罗斯原油出口转向中东、印度和美 国，欧盟对俄原油禁运及价格上限政策持续升级，进一步拉长运输距离， 显著增加吨海里数，推高整体运价。 VLCC 市场核心驱动因素 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Crude Oil Futures: Supply Glut, Geopolitical Instability - Author: Shi Xiuming - Investment Consultation Qualification Number: F0255552 - Email: shixiuming@nzfco.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - International oil prices fluctuated slightly in the week ending November 14, 2025. The prices rose in the first half of the week due to factors such as increased Chinese crude oil imports in October, a weaker US dollar, and the US government's progress in ending the shutdown, as well as ongoing sanctions on Russia and infrastructure attacks in Ukraine. However, they declined in the second half after the OPEC monthly report forecast a supply glut [2]. - Despite the downward pressure from the overall supply glut in the crude oil market, geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russia and attacks on energy facilities introduce uncertainties and partially offset the downward pressure, leading to a volatile and fluctuating price trend in the short - term. Traders should pay attention to the resistance level of 470 yuan/barrel for the 01 contract [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - As of November 14, 2025, SC2601, Brent, and WTI oil prices were 463.6 yuan/barrel, 64.39, and 59.39 US dollars/barrel respectively. SC2601 and Brent prices rose slightly from the previous weekend, while WTI fell slightly [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [3] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Crude Oil | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 463.60 | 460.60 | 3 | 0.89% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 65.19 | 65.12 | -0.07 | -0.08% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 64.29 | 63.70 | 0.59 | 0.93% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 59.81 | 59.67 | -0.03 | -0.05% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels/day | 13862 | 13651 | 211 | 1.55% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 427581 | 421168 | 6413 | 1.52% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 704 | 528 | 171 | 33.33% | Weekly | [4] Market Data Charts - Multiple charts are provided to show the prices of different crude oil products (SC, Oman, Brent, WTI), their spreads, as well as relationships with factors like the US dollar index. Also, charts display supply (OPEC and US production, US rig counts), inventory (OECD and US inventories), demand (refinery inputs, utilization rates in the US, China, Europe, and India), and cost - profit (refinery profits) aspects [6][12][18][25][33]

铜 有色金属日报 2025-11-17 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 铝 【行情资讯】 周五市场风险偏好走弱，铝价下探，伦铝收跌 0.64%至 2858 美元/吨，沪铝主力合约收至 21795 元/ 吨。沪铝加权合约持仓量减少 4.4 至 78.4 万手，期货仓单持平于 6.5 万吨。国内三地铝锭库存增 加，铝棒库存亦增加，铝棒加工费震荡下滑，市场交投仍不佳。华东电解铝现货平水于期货，下游 刚需采买为主。外盘 LME 铝库存减少 0.1 至 55.2 万吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 贴水扩 ...

Core Insights - The main point of the article highlights the fluctuations in oil prices influenced by geopolitical factors, with both U.S. and Brent crude oil contracts experiencing slight increases on the day but declines over the week [1] Oil Market Summary - The U.S. oil main contract closed at $59.84 per barrel, reflecting a daily increase of 0.69% but a weekly decline of 1.87% [1] - The Brent crude oil main contract closed at $63.68 per barrel, showing a daily increase of 0.47% and a weekly decline of 1.68% [1] - The oil market is currently experiencing a volatile upward trend due to geopolitical influences [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with international gold prices under pressure from a strong US dollar, while domestic prices in China are rising due to different market dynamics [3][5][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On November 1, 2025, international spot gold opened at $4036.48 per ounce and closed at $4001.93, down $34.59, while domestic gold prices in China rose, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold contract closing at 921.84 yuan per gram, up 0.39% [3]. - The price difference between domestic and international gold has reached a historical high of 205 yuan per gram, with domestic prices significantly higher than international prices when converted to RMB [3]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy changes, including a 25 basis point rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening, which theoretically supports gold prices [5][10]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have not led to a significant increase in gold's safe-haven demand, as the market has partially absorbed these risks [5][8]. - The US dollar index has rebounded to 107.64, creating a "see-saw" effect with gold prices, as a stronger dollar typically suppresses gold [5][10]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that if gold prices fall below $3973 per ounce, there could be further downside potential to $3847 per ounce [9]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish trend, with the RSI at 44.9, indicating continued short-term downward pressure on gold prices [5][9]. Group 4: Domestic Demand and Supply - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months, reaching 2292 tons by October 2025, a 12% increase year-on-year, supporting domestic gold prices [5][10]. - The domestic gold market is experiencing strong demand, particularly in the context of traditional consumption peaks, although seasonal demand is expected to decline in the coming months [8][14]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to be cautious of high premiums associated with gold jewelry and the potential pitfalls of leveraged trading in gold [12][14]. - The gold recycling market has seen prices fluctuate, with current recovery prices ranging from 888 to 913 yuan per gram, reflecting market volatility [7][14].

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is $63.4 and $59.3 per barrel, respectively, with increases of $1.4 and $1.0 compared to the previous week [1][2] - U.S. crude oil production stands at 13.63 million barrels per day, showing a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day week-on-week [2] - Active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 2 to a total of 420, while active fracturing fleets rose by 3 to 175 [2] Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory is 830 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 420 million barrels, strategic inventory at 410 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 20 million barrels. Changes from the previous week include decreases of 1.4 million barrels and 0.96 million barrels in total and commercial inventories, respectively, while strategic inventory increased by 0.82 million barrels and Cushing inventory decreased by 0.77 million barrels [1][2] Refinery Activity - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 15.73 million barrels per day, up by 600,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 88.6%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points [2] Oil Trade Dynamics - U.S. crude oil imports, exports, and net imports are 5.92 million, 4.20 million, and 1.72 million barrels per day, respectively, with imports increasing by 390,000 barrels per day and exports decreasing by 260,000 barrels per day [2] Refined Product Overview - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $78, $95, and $89 per barrel, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +$1.1, +$2.0, and -$5.1 [3] - Refined product inventories for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are 220 million, 120 million, and 40 million barrels, respectively, with decreases of 2.15 million, 1.48 million, and 1.49 million barrels week-on-week [4] - Production levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are 959, 463, and 164 thousand barrels per day, with increases of 24, 4, and decreases of 7 thousand barrels per day, respectively [5] Refined Product Demand and Trade - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 845, 385, and 172 thousand barrels per day, with no change in gasoline, a decrease of 39 thousand barrels per day in diesel, and an increase of 3 thousand barrels per day in jet fuel [6] - Gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 80, 1.21 million, and 1.14 million barrels per day, with changes of -30, +190, and +230 thousand barrels per day, respectively [6] Recommended Companies - Companies recommended for investment include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, and others [6]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 943.00 CNY per gram, with a decline of 4.89%, reaching a high of 966.64 CNY and a low of 933.08 CNY [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears bearish [1] Group 2 - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S.-Russia relations regarding the Ukraine conflict, adds uncertainty to the market [3] - President Trump has expressed no intention to hold a "meaningless meeting" with President Putin, emphasizing the need to freeze the current front lines as a key condition for a ceasefire [3] - The Kremlin has rejected Trump's proposal, indicating that the anticipated second summit is now uncertain [3] - Despite Trump's hope for a ceasefire, his overall assessment of the conflict is pessimistic, which may negatively impact global market risk appetite [3] - Russia reiterated its peace conditions through diplomatic channels, reflecting the complex geopolitical factors influencing market sentiment [3] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 1000 CNY and 1030 CNY per gram, while important support levels are between 929 CNY and 940 CNY per gram [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the weekly data of the oil and petrochemical industry, including the price, inventory, supply, demand, and import - export of crude oil and refined oil, as well as the performance of the oil and petrochemical sector and related listed companies. It also provides data on the oil service sector. The international oil price has declined, and the report presents detailed data changes in various aspects of the oil market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - **Price**: Brent/WTI crude oil futures had weekly average prices of $62.0/$58.3 per barrel, down $3.0 each from the previous week. Russian Urals was at $58.6 per barrel, down $2.2, and ESPO was at $61.0 per barrel with no change [2][9]. - **Inventory**: US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.2/4.1/0.2 billion barrels, with week - on - week changes of +428/+352/+76/ - 70 million barrels respectively [2]. - **Production**: US crude oil production was 13.64 million barrels per day, up 0.1 million barrels per day. The number of active crude oil rigs was 418, unchanged, and the number of active fracturing fleets was 175, also unchanged [2]. - **Demand**: US refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.13 million barrels per day, down 1.17 million barrels per day, and the refinery crude oil utilization rate was 85.7%, down 6.7 percentage points [2]. - **Import and Export**: US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 5.53/4.47/1.06 million barrels per day, with week - on - week changes of - 0.88/+0.88/ - 1.75 million barrels per day respectively [2]. 3.2 This Week's Oil and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - **Sector Performance**: The report shows the performance of the oil and petrochemical sector and its sub - industries, including the decline in the oil and gas exploration, refining and trading, and oil service engineering sub - sectors [15][18]. - **Listed Company Performance**: The report provides the valuation data of related listed companies, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation, PetroChina, Sinopec, etc. [9]. 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Price**: Analyzes the price and price difference of various crude oils, such as Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and ESPO, and their relationship with the US dollar index and LME copper price [9][30][33]. - **Inventory**: Studies the inventory of US crude oil, including total inventory, commercial inventory, strategic inventory, and Cushing inventory, and their relationship with oil prices [42][47][52]. - **Supply**: Focuses on US crude oil production, the number of oil rigs, and fracturing fleets and their relationship with oil prices [59][61][63]. - **Demand**: Analyzes the crude oil processing volume and utilization rate of US refineries, as well as the utilization rate of Chinese refineries [67][69][72]. - **Import and Export**: Tracks the import, export, and net import volume of US crude oil and petroleum products [78][80][81]. 3.4 Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Price**: Analyzes the price and price difference of refined oils such as gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US, China, Europe, and Singapore, and their relationship with crude oil prices [87][90][114]. - **Inventory**: Monitors the inventory of refined oils in the US and Singapore, including gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene [128][132][137]. - **Supply**: Focuses on the production of refined oils in the US, including gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene [145]. - **Demand**: Analyzes the consumption of refined oils in the US, including gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene, and the number of airport security checks for passengers [148][150][154]. - **Import and Export**: Tracks the import, export, and net export volume of refined oils in the US, including gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene [157][161][163]. 3.5 Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily fees of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry [172][176][177]. 3.6 Recommended Listed Companies Recommended companies include CNOOC/China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina/PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec/China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Development Co., Ltd. (600968.SH). Companies to be concerned about include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical & Electrical Equipment Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current crude oil market is dominated by bearish factors, with no substantial positive support. The balance of the long - short game on the trading floor is tilting towards the bearish side. In the short - term, the macro - logic has become the core driving variable, overshadowing geopolitical factors. In the medium - to long - term, the market pricing anchor returns to the fundamentals, where a bearish pattern of supply and demand is expected to continue, characterized by a "double - bearish supply - demand" structure. The large - scale weak trend of the crude oil market remains unchanged, and the release of downside risks takes precedence over short - term rebound opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Section Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: It is recommended to wait and see for now and go short on rallies [3]. - **Arbitrage**: The month - spread is expected to be weak [3]. - **Options trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. Crude Oil Month - spread Tracking - Proximal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.35 on October 17, 2025, down 47.76% week - on - week and 60.23% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.61, down 3.17% week - on - week and 16.44% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 2.274, up 99.47% week - on - week and down 19.22% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month [4]. - Distal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 0.24, down 157.14% week - on - week and 113.79% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was 0.01, down 97.4% week - on - week and 99.37% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 06) was 0.06, down 85.00% week - on - week and 97.94% month - on - month [4]. Crude Oil Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage - Arbitrage indicators: On October 17, 2025, Brent M + 2 was $60.47 per barrel, down 2.91% week - on - week and 10.4% month - on - month. SC M + 3 was 446.00 yuan per barrel, down 5.35% week - on - week and 6.4% month - on - month. The SC theoretical landed profit was - 32.35 yuan per barrel, up 3.7% week - on - week and down 3.3% month - on - month [5]. - Spread indicators: The SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.76 per barrel, down 70.04% week - on - week and 48.65% month - on - month. The SC - WTI continuous 1 spread was $4.32 per barrel, down 32.24% week - on - week and 17.61% month - on - month. The SC - Dubai continuous 1 spread was $0.72 per barrel, down 76.79% week - on - week and up 45.2% month - on - month [5]. Logic Combing - **Geopolitical factors**: Geopolitical factors are the core variable affecting short - term crude oil fluctuations but cannot reverse the general trend. After the Gaza cease - fire, geopolitical support weakened, and the latest news about the Trump administration's action in Venezuela reignited geopolitical concerns, causing a short - term rebound in crude oil prices. However, compared with before the Gaza cease - fire, the supporting effect of geopolitical factors has significantly decreased, only serving as a short - term disturbing factor [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The core logic of the crude oil market is still dominated by fundamentals, with the balance clearly tilting towards the bearish side. There is no substantial positive support, and the market shows a combination of supply - side pressure and demand - side weakness. As the center of crude oil price fluctuations moves down, the fundamentals have exerted a new price suppression on the trading floor. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $60 support level for Brent crude oil [7]. - **Macro and market sentiment**: Macro - level emotional disturbances have further strengthened the weakness of crude oil. The market's "potential risk - aversion demand" persists, which directly exerts emotional pressure on risk assets such as crude oil. The performance of the commodity market represented by crude oil and copper is under pressure, showing a divergence from the trends of the US stock market and gold [9]. Related News - **US EIA inventory data**: For the week ending October 10, US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3524000 barrels, strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 80000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 267000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4529000 barrels. Crude oil production increased by 7000 barrels per day to 13636000 barrels per day, commercial crude oil imports decreased by 878000 barrels per day to 5255000 barrels per day, and crude oil exports increased by 876000 barrels per day to 4466000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 85.7% [10]. - **India's strategic petroleum reserve expansion**: India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Limited has launched the second - phase expansion of oil caverns. Contracts have been awarded to build a 2.5 - million - ton underground oil storage facility in Padur, Karnataka. The new facilities will be established on a public - private partnership basis using the DBFOT model [11]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - On October 17, 2025, Brent crude oil M + 2 was $60.71 per barrel, down $0.35 from the previous day and $2.02 from the previous week. WTI crude oil M + 2 was $56.62 per barrel, down $0.37 from the previous day and $1.86 from the previous week. SC crude oil M + 2 was 439.6 yuan per barrel, down 6 yuan from the previous day and 28.9 yuan from the previous week [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the fuel oil futures showed a downward trend after breaking through support levels, with overall trading sentiment being bearish. Affected by the significant decline in the international crude oil market and the weakening of the fundamental supply - demand structure, the price center of fuel oil futures has clearly shifted downward. The main trading logic this week revolved around increased global supply, slowing demand growth, and weakened cost support. Meanwhile, macro - risk events such as the "shutdown" of the US federal government further intensified market concerns [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market:** The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,781 yuan/ton this week, down 86 yuan/ton or 3% from the settlement price of the previous trading week. The highest price this week was 2,835 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,776 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 775,015 lots, and the open interest was 230,600 lots, a decrease of 4,649 lots [3] - **Variety Price:** The fuel oil futures contract prices presented a backwardation market pattern with near - term prices higher than long - term prices [7] 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data:** The fuel oil spot market performed poorly this week. The current basis level is in the lower range of recent months, indicating that the spot market faces greater price pressure compared to the futures market. The low basis level reflects that the spot market is more resistant to declines than the futures market and also shows the futures market's pessimistic expectation of the long - term fundamentals [9] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts:** This week, the changes in the fuel oil warehouse receipt data on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were limited, remaining generally stable. The low level of warehouse receipts helps reduce the physical delivery pressure on the futures market and provides some support for the prices of near - month contracts [11][12] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information:** The benchmark price of fuel oil is 5,363 yuan/ton, down nearly 2.1% compared to the beginning of this month. The benchmark price of fuel oil 380CST is 433 US dollars/ton, down 3.8% compared to the beginning of this month [13] 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, the fuel oil market is expected to be mainly driven by geopolitical factors and crude oil costs. In terms of international supply, OPEC+ plans to expand the production increase scale in November, and the resumption of crude oil exports in the Kurdish region of Iraq, combined with the increased inflow of goods after the end of the summer electricity peak in the Middle East, clearly indicate an abundant supply pattern in the Asian fuel oil market. In the future, close attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff policies, the Fed's monetary policy (interest rate cut expectations), geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations that may affect the fuel oil market [14]