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程强:走势分化,均衡配置
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-11 03:41
程强系德邦证券研究所所长、首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事 PART.01 市场概览 2025年10月10日周五,A股市场、国债期货、商品市场均出现普遍调整。 短期调整或因外围因素不确定性提升。今日领跌的指数和个股多为前期涨幅较大的热门品种,短期调整 或因风险偏好有所下降有关。消息面上,10月9日商务部、海关总署连发4条公告,涉超硬材料、稀土、 锂电池等出口管制,或引发市场对贸易摩擦升温的担忧。英国央行当地时间10月9日公布了其金融政策 委员会(FPC)本月2日的会议记录,英国央行警告AI相关科技公司估值过高,或引发"剧烈市场回调",对 前期市场热门的科技板块也形成一定情绪压制。 短期风格切换,建议均衡配置。今日市场表现主要体现为创业板指、科创50等成长指数大幅回调,红利 板块逆市上涨,表明当前科技板块位置过高,且面临三季报集中披露期情况下,市场避险情绪或开始提 升,部分资金选择获利了结,资金的切换也凸显出结构性机会。但从市场量能来看,成交额虽然略微缩 量,但仍维持在2.5万亿以上,显示市场交投活跃度未出现系统性降温,均衡配置或能更好规避风险。 中长期来看,我们认为A股市场仍处于人工智能带动的产业革命基 ...
大跌后的6条建议
表舅是养基大户· 2025-10-10 13:18
...... 第一条建议,送外卖的电瓶车先别扔。 今天A股和港股的科技板块,都迎来了大跌,如果要找原因的话,宏观和行业层面,都有可以说道说道的。 宏观层面,因为近期欧洲(法国)和小日子的政坛震荡,导致美元指数"被动"走强,昨晚, 自8月1日以来,美元指数首次向上突破99 ,这导致 降息预期+弱美元的宏观假设,有所变化,对非美市场不是什么好事情,今天恒生指数跌了1.7%,而日经225也跌超1%,是其9月1日以来,首次 跌超1个点。 行业层面的利空,其实主要也和宏观有关,11月10日,也就是1个月后,中美要再次商贸会谈,因此,大家近期也能看到,两边都在加紧搞事 情,收集筹码,昨晚提到的咱们对 锂电 的出口管制,就导致今天锂电板块领跌A股和港股。 另外,昨天提到的,静态市盈率超300倍后,股票融资时的折算率归零的规定,加剧了部分杠杆资金的恐慌情绪(因为下跌导致市盈率变化,今 晚,部分券商又对部分个股采取了上调折算率的操作,如果情绪配合,可能导致反弹回来),导致今天在韩国的两家芯片龙头企业涨的飞起的同 时,A股和H股 芯片 却继续大暴跌。 而且,有时候,悲观情绪,会带来更多的悲观情绪,比如,今天 机器人 板块的两则利 ...
港股为何起飞?
表舅是养基大户· 2025-09-17 13:39
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current performance of equity markets, highlighting the strong performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the technology sector, while also addressing macroeconomic factors influencing market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares have shown a positive trend with over 90% of equity ETFs rising, despite the median stock still being in the red, with notable gains from leading stocks like "Ning Wang" [1]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has surged over 4%, reaching its highest level since the end of 2021 [1]. - Since September 5, A-shares have seen net financing purchases exceeding 100 billion, while Hong Kong stocks have approached 90 billion in net purchases, indicating a strong capital-driven market [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The article mentions the ongoing US-China negotiations, with the extension of the TikTok ban indicating a neutral to optimistic market sentiment [2]. - Anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is causing cautious behavior in global markets, with a notable sell-off in late trading sessions [2]. Group 3: Valuation Comparisons - The combined market capitalization of China's top three technology companies is approximately 1.36 trillion USD, comparable to Tesla's market cap, raising questions about valuation rationality [4][6]. - The article argues that the higher valuations of US tech giants are justified due to their larger customer base and clearer competitive advantages compared to Chinese firms [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The article suggests a dual approach for investors: diversifying investments between US and Chinese markets and utilizing indices for exposure to Chinese tech giants, which may offer better value despite competitive pressures [7]. - It emphasizes the importance of low interest rates in driving market valuations, suggesting that investors should focus on this macroeconomic factor rather than solely on corporate earnings [20]. Group 5: Sector Analysis - The Hang Seng Technology Index has reached new highs, with current valuations (PE of 24) being lower than in 2022, suggesting potential for further growth [11]. - The ChiNext Index has also reached new highs, with a current PE of 44, indicating that while valuations are not low, they are not excessively high compared to historical peaks [16]. Group 6: Conclusion - The article concludes that the unprecedented low interest rates are the primary driver of the current market rally, and investors should maintain a balanced approach across different regions and asset classes to optimize returns [20].
如何克服恐高症、增厚长期投资收益?
雪球· 2025-09-14 06:37
Investment Returns - Investment returns are derived from three main factors: capital, annualized return rate, and investment duration [5][7][9] - Among these factors, investment duration has the most significant impact on total returns, as demonstrated by comparing two investors with different strategies [10][12][14] Long-term Market Participation - To enhance investment returns, investors must focus on remaining in the market for extended periods [14] - A successful long-term investment strategy requires an entrepreneurial mindset rather than a worker's mindset [16][22] - Establishing a proven and sustainable profit system is essential for long-term success [23][24] Profit System - A long-term profit system should embrace time as an ally, such as through dividend strategies or high ROE strategies [24][25] - Clear buy and sell rules are necessary for maintaining a long-term profit system [27][30] Balanced Asset Allocation - Effective strategies should be balanced to adapt to different market conditions, ensuring consistent performance across various market phases [32][36] - Diversification across strategies allows investors to benefit from different market environments without being overly reliant on a single approach [36][38] Timing Decisions - Investors should avoid unnecessary timing decisions unless specific conditions warrant it, such as extreme market valuations or deteriorating fundamentals [39][40][42] - The emphasis should be on maintaining a long-term presence in the market to maximize potential returns [43][44]
参观小米汽车工厂的一些感受
表舅是养基大户· 2025-09-12 13:13
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements in automation and AI in manufacturing, particularly in Xiaomi's new automotive factory, and highlights the implications for employment and investment opportunities in the industry. Group 1: Automation and Employment - The automation rate in high-end manufacturing has reached an impressive level, with Xiaomi claiming a 91% overall automation rate and 100% automated component connections, resulting in minimal manual labor requirements [2] - The rise of AI is expected to further decrease labor demand in factories, leading to fewer job opportunities in traditional manufacturing roles [2][3] - Despite the decline in manufacturing jobs, sectors like delivery services (e.g., food delivery, ride-hailing) will continue to have significant employment needs due to their complex operational requirements [3] Group 2: Competitive Advantages and Industry Dynamics - Xiaomi's factory exemplifies a "latecomer advantage" in automation, as it can implement fully automated systems without the legacy constraints faced by older manufacturers [3][4] - The article suggests that high-quality equity in companies like Xiaomi may offer better investment value compared to real estate, especially as depreciation of manufacturing assets occurs over time [4] - The marketing strategies employed by internet companies like Xiaomi enhance their competitive edge, as they leverage user-centric approaches in their operations and branding [4][6] Group 3: Broader Market Trends - The article notes that the current market environment is characterized by high concentration, with a small number of stocks dominating trading volumes, leading to increased volatility [16][18] - Recent trends in the bond market indicate a targeted approach by the central bank to manage liquidity through reverse repos, which may influence investment strategies [20][21]
提前结募与“日光基”频现 权益基金发行普遍回暖
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-10 22:38
Core Insights - The equity fund issuance market is experiencing a significant rebound, with a notable increase in investor confidence and demand for equity products since the market's substantial recovery in 2024 [1][3] Fund Issuance Trends - In September, 10 equity funds have chosen to end their fundraising early, contributing to a total of 13 funds that have announced early closures this month [2][4] - The new fund issuance market has seen a total of 54 funds established by September 10, with stock and mixed funds accounting for 47 of these, representing nearly 90% of total issuances [4] Fund Performance and Demand - The combined issuance scale of stock and mixed funds since September has reached approximately 35.2 billion, with 15 newly established mixed funds raising a total of 14.02 billion, marking a monthly record for average issuance scale in nearly two years [4] - Specific funds, such as the招商均衡优选混合, achieved a subscription scale exceeding 8 billion on the first day of fundraising, resulting in a final establishment scale of 4.955 billion, the largest for an actively managed equity fund this year [4] Market Environment and Investor Sentiment - The rapid fundraising closures are attributed to a combination of market conditions, investor demand, and proactive adjustments by fund companies [3] - Analysts indicate that the recovery in the domestic equity market has led to a gradual restoration of investor confidence and increased enthusiasm for equity products [3] Investment Strategies - Fund managers recommend a balanced asset allocation strategy, suggesting a "core + satellite" or barbell approach to balance safety and returns [5][6] - The current market environment, characterized by liquidity easing, is expected to favor sectors such as technology and commodities, with potential investment opportunities in cyclical goods and emerging technologies [6][7]
A股连续震荡!股民下一步如何操作?是“留”还是“去”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 02:03
Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective decline for the second consecutive trading day, but the main indices have still seen an overall increase of over 10% since the beginning of the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 13.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 15.14%, and the ChiNext Index up 19.51% [1] Recent Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index has been in a sideways adjustment since the significant drop on August 27, following a peak of 3888.60 on August 26. The market has struggled to break through previous highs, with increased volatility noted since September [3] - Trading volume has contracted, with daily transactions not exceeding 3 trillion yuan since the drop on August 27, indicating a cooling of trading enthusiasm [3] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The recent market fluctuations are attributed to technical adjustment needs, as profit-taking pressure has built up after continuous gains. The market is currently characterized by a "risk-averse and shrinking" capital environment, with a notable net outflow of 1720.68 billion yuan on September 2 [5] - International market conditions, including rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September (with a probability of 92%), have also contributed to the weak performance of U.S. stocks, further impacting A-shares [6] Investment Strategies - In the current market environment, a strategy of "balanced allocation and performance focus" is recommended [8] - Emphasis on the technology sector, particularly sub-sectors with strong performance support and policy catalysts, such as the gaming sector (benefiting from record-high license approvals) and semiconductor equipment (accelerating domestic substitution) [9] - Importance of defensive asset allocation, with gold and other safe-haven assets expected to perform well during market volatility, especially with international gold prices reaching historical highs [10] - Suggested to control positions between 30% to 60% and maintain flexibility to respond to market fluctuations, while constructing a portfolio that includes technology, consumption, and cyclical sectors [11]
爆款诞生!招商均衡优选混合首日募集超73亿 将启动比例配售
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-02 08:04
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the招商均衡优选混合型证券投资基金 has successfully raised over 7.3 billion yuan on its first day of fundraising, exceeding its 5 billion yuan cap and achieving a "sold out in one day" status [1][3][4] - The fund's fundraising period was initially set from September 2 to September 12, 2025, but due to high demand, it was able to close early [3][4] - The fund's investment strategy includes a balanced allocation across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and bonds, which aligns with current investor demand for diversified risk and multi-asset allocation [4] Group 2 - The fund manager, 吴潇, has a track record of an annualized return of 11.88% and emphasizes selecting quality companies across various industries [5][8] - 吴潇 has extensive experience in fund management, having managed multiple funds with a total scale of 9.232 billion yuan, and has consistently outperformed the沪深300 index [5][8] - The recent popularity of the招商均衡优选混合 fund reflects a broader trend where investors are increasingly favoring high-quality fund managers and products amid a challenging market environment [4][8]
账户创新高后,该落袋为安还是继续持有?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 14:29
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses strategies for investors to consider when their fund accounts reach new highs, emphasizing the importance of balancing profit-taking and risk management [1] Group 1: Profit-Taking Strategies - The concept of profit-taking is highlighted, with the saying "buying is for apprentices, selling is for masters" underscoring its importance [2] - Target return method is a straightforward approach where investors set a predetermined return rate before buying and sell once that target is reached [2] - The partial profit-taking method is recommended for the current market environment, allowing investors to lock in some profits while retaining a portion of their investment for potential further gains [2] - The maximum drawdown method is useful in a bull market, where investors set a drawdown threshold (e.g., 10%) and only consider selling if profits fall below this level [2][3] Group 2: Risk Management through Diversification - The article notes a recent market trend of rapid sector rotation, making it risky to chase hot sectors [4] - Balanced allocation is emphasized as crucial, advising against concentrating investments in a single area and instead spreading investments across various industries [4] - Even after achieving profits, adjusting the portfolio is necessary to manage risks, ensuring that overall volatility remains manageable [4] Group 3: Utilizing ETFs for Balanced Investment - Broad-based ETFs are presented as an effective tool for achieving a balanced investment portfolio, offering risk diversification [5] - Examples include the CSI 300 ETF, which includes 300 representative companies from the A-share market, and the CSI A500 ETF, which covers a wide range of leading companies across various sectors [5] - ETFs typically have lower management fees compared to actively managed funds, which can lead to significant cost savings over time [5] - The flexibility of ETFs allows investors to adjust their positions easily during trading hours, similar to stocks [5] Group 4: Psychological Aspects of Investing - The article emphasizes that investing is fundamentally a psychological game, particularly at market highs where greed and fear can be amplified [6][7] - To combat these emotions, it is advised to create and adhere to a plan that outlines specific conditions for profit-taking and loss-cutting [7] - Maintaining a long-term perspective is crucial, focusing on quality assets rather than short-term market fluctuations [7] Group 5: Conclusion - The article concludes that whether to take profits or continue holding investments, the key is to find a strategy that aligns with individual investment goals [8] - It reinforces the notion that investing is a marathon, not a sprint, and emphasizes the importance of rationality and risk control at market peaks [8]
如何克服恐高症、增厚长期投资收益?
雪球· 2025-08-31 05:04
Group 1 - The article discusses how to enhance investment returns during a bull market, emphasizing the importance of investment risk tolerance, profit systems, and long-term thinking [3][4]. - Investment returns are derived from three main factors: capital, annualized return rate, and investment duration [6][8]. - Among these factors, investment duration is highlighted as the most significant influence on total investment returns, surpassing both capital and annualized return rate [10][14]. Group 2 - To remain in the market for the long term, investors should adopt an entrepreneurial mindset rather than a worker's mindset [16][22]. - A long-term viable profit system is essential, which should be proven over at least one complete bull-bear cycle [23][25]. - Investors should maintain a balanced asset allocation strategy to ensure they can withstand different market conditions [32][36]. Group 3 - Timing the market should be avoided unless absolutely necessary, as it can lead to emotional decision-making [38][43]. - The article suggests that investors should only consider timing their exits in specific situations, such as when market valuations are exceptionally high or when switching to better investment options [40][42]. - Overall, the key to enhancing long-term investment returns lies in maintaining a stable mindset, a proven profit system, balanced allocation, and minimizing market timing [45].