亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型更新对美国四季度经济的预测。 四季度实际GDP环比年化增速预测值为3.0%，其 中消费增速2.7%，投资增速7.0%，出口增速6.6%。然而，对美国经济的乐观预期不宜线性外推。一方面，居 民储蓄率已从4月高点回落1.5pct至9月的4.0%，叠加美股四季度转为震荡，就业市场亦偏弱运行，需谨慎看待 消费增长的可持续性。另一方面，投资增长更多源于关税影响消化后的库存回补，以及地产投资的弱复苏，设 备投资增速（-2.4%）意外转负，或反映出AI资本开支扩张的边际走弱。 海外宏观策略：美国经济超预期强劲，宽松交易延续 美国经济调查局（NBER）滞后公布三季度GDP数据。 实际GDP环比年化增速为4.3%，其中消费增速3.5%， 投资增速-0.3%，出口增速8.8%。从结构看，K型分化仍在延续。消费方面，服务（3.7%）及非耐用品消费 （3.9%）在美股财富效应支撑下加速扩张，但耐用品消费（1.6%）在财务状况拖累下保持低迷。投资方面， 设备（5.4%）及知识产权（5.4%）投资继续受益于AI乐观预期，建筑（-6.3%）及地产（-5,1%）投资继续受 困于高利率。进出口方面，进口（-4.7% ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The US economy is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, supported by fiscal policies during the midterm election year, with a projected GDP growth of 2.4% and CPI inflation around 2.5% [1][7][55] - The K-shaped economic recovery in the US is likely to continue, with a concentration of growth in the "AI + finance" sectors, while the consumer sector shows signs of low-quality growth [1][10][55] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to adopt a dovish stance, potentially lowering interest rates to around 3% [1][51][55] Group 2: Chinese Economic Forecast - China's GDP growth is projected to reach 4.8% in 2026, characterized by stable external demand, improved internal demand, and price recovery [2][4][82] - The fiscal policy will be more proactive, with a target deficit rate of 4.0%, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.85 trillion yuan, and a total fiscal arrangement of 43 trillion yuan [2][86][87] - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, with a potential reduction in the OMO rate to 1.3% and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [3][92][93] Group 3: Investment and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment growth in China is expected to recover to 1.8%, driven by increased fiscal spending and the commencement of major projects [2][5][86] - Retail sales growth is projected to rise to 4.5%, supported by strong consumer policies [2][5][86] - The capital market outlook suggests a bullish trend for the stock market, with A-shares expected to continue upward momentum, while the bond market may experience fluctuations [3][6]

对锡价影响：数据公布后，市场交易主线迅速切换为"降息交易"。美元应声走弱，美债收益率大跌，全 球流动性宽松预期急剧升温。这直接为所有对利率敏感的资产，尤其是工业金属，注入了强劲的"金融 东风"。锡价在12月17日结束跌势，单日跳涨6,750元，正是对这场宏观情绪巨变的即时反应。 图为长江有色金属网长江现货市场行情 本周价格整体走势趋势 据长江有色金属网获悉，本周长江现货锡价上演"绝地反击"，呈现鲜明的 V型反转走势。周初市场情绪 承压，价格连续回调，周二更是触及318,750元/吨的周内低点。然而，行情自周三起风云突变，买盘力 量强势入场，推动价格实现 "三连阳"反弹，日均价大幅拉涨，最终周五收于337,500元/吨的全周高点。 尽管周初出现深度回调，但市场多头迅速收复失地，本周总均价报327800元/吨，本周较前一周上涨 1,200元/吨。此次探底回升显示低位支撑强劲，市场情绪已由弱转强，短期内反弹动能有望延续，后续 走势需关注价格能否有效突破并站稳关键阻力区域。 宏观面影响因素 周初（12/15-12/16）：宏观预期混沌，价格承压回落 背景：周初市场处于"数据真空期"与"政策观察期"。美联储虽已降息，但 ...

| E Kalifa | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月15日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属延续偏强。上周美联储如期降息25个基点，同时宣布在未来30天内购买400亿美元短债，三人投 出反对票体现内部分歧，点阵图中值维持对明后两年各降息1次的预期。鲍威尔称就业下行风险上升，可以 等待并观察经济如何发展,利率处于中性水平区间的上端。会议整体中性,不过重启购债比市场预期更早以 解决银行系统流动性偏紧的问题，有利于宽松交易的延续。会后多位官员讲话仍表达谨慎降息态度，上周就 业相关数据喜忧 ...

在当前低波动环境下，外汇市场有哪些主要交易策略？ 在当前低波动环境下，外汇市场主要采用套息策略，即卖出低息货币、买入高 息货币以享受利差。今年（2025 年）表现最好的货币是拉美货币，如巴西雷 亚尔和墨西哥比索。巴西央行基准利率为 15%，使得投资者愿意做多其货币， 从而获得超过 30%的收益。墨西哥比索由于接近 10%的利率，也表现强劲。 此外，欧系货币如瑞士法郎和欧元也相对强势，因为欧洲投资者更多地对冲美 元汇率风险。而亚洲货币如中日韩、印尼、印度和菲律宾则表现较弱，因为这 2026 年外汇市场展望：宽松交易或阶段性回归 20251203 摘要 2025 年外汇市场先扬后抑，下半年波动性降低，主要受关税协调和美 联储降息预期充分兑现影响，导致美元反弹，市场进入低波动状态。 低波动环境下，套息交易盛行，拉美货币如巴西雷亚尔和墨西哥比索表 现突出，受益于高利率；而亚洲货币因收益偏低，资本外流导致走弱。 2026 年外汇市场波动率的关键因素包括美国政策预期变化、就业数据 恶化、PMI 指数衰退迹象以及美联储新主席的政策立场，这些将影响降 息预期。 美联储面临就业恶化和通胀反弹的权衡，可能暂缓 12 月降息，但若 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The global foreign exchange market has been significantly influenced by tariff expectations and fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate since 2025. The dollar index experienced a notable decline in the first half of 2025, followed by stabilization in the latter half, with expectations of further movements in 2026 driven by interest rate differentials and changes in risk appetite. Group 1: 2025 Overview - The dollar index fell significantly in the first quarter of 2025 due to weaker-than-expected tariff policy advancements by the Trump administration, reversing the "Trump trade" [1] - In the second quarter, the dollar experienced a sharp decline driven by unexpected "reciprocal tariffs" and escalating US-China trade tensions, raising concerns about the US economic outlook and the stability of dollar assets [1][5] - The dollar stabilized in the third quarter as the US reached tariff agreements with major trading partners, alleviating market concerns about economic and financial stability [1][5] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The narrowing of interest rate differentials and changes in risk appetite are expected to become the main themes in currency trading for 2026 [2][19] - The Federal Reserve's potential for more aggressive rate cuts compared to other non-US central banks may lead to a further decline in the dollar's volatility center [2][19] - The performance of different non-US currencies is likely to diverge, with the euro expected to lead due to improved economic growth dynamics in the Eurozone [3][19] Group 3: Renminbi (RMB) Dynamics - The RMB's exchange rate will be influenced by the dollar's performance and changes in US-China trade relations, with a stable exchange rate policy potentially impacting the RMB's trajectory [3][41] - The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately as the Fed's rate cuts narrow the interest rate differential between China and the US [3][41] - The resilience of the Chinese economy and financial markets under tariff pressures has reduced the impact of tariff risks on the RMB [3][41][64] Group 4: Currency Performance and Strategies - High-yield currencies from Latin America and Europe have performed relatively well, supported by favorable interest rate differentials and lower volatility [12][13] - The carry trade strategy has been the most profitable forex trading strategy in 2025, indicating a return to traditional trading logic based on interest rate differentials [13] - The euro is expected to benefit from reduced need for aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank, while the yen and pound may face relative weakness due to domestic policy pressures [3][38][39] Group 5: External Factors and Risks - The US government shutdown and tariff rate fluctuations pose risks to market stability and may increase volatility in the forex market [32][33] - Political uncertainties in France and Japan, as well as geopolitical factors like the Ukraine conflict, could also impact global risk sentiment and currency performance [32][36] - The overall environment is expected to favor a gradual appreciation of the RMB, supported by the internationalization of the currency and a stable economic outlook [62][76]

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market in 2025 has been significantly influenced by tariff expectations and fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate, with a notable decline in the dollar index during the second quarter due to unexpected tariff announcements and deteriorating employment data [2][3][4]. Group 1: 2025 Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, the dollar index fell from its high as Trump's tariff policies progressed slower than expected, reversing the "Trump trade" that had boosted the dollar [2][4]. - The second quarter saw a significant drop in the dollar index, primarily due to the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" that exceeded market expectations and rising trade tensions between the US and China, leading to concerns about the stability of the US economy and dollar assets [2][4]. - By the third quarter, the dollar's performance stabilized as the US reached tariff agreements with major trading partners, alleviating market concerns about economic stability, and the dollar entered a consolidation phase [2][4]. Group 2: 2026 Outlook - For 2026, narrowing interest rate differentials and changes in risk appetite are expected to be the main themes in currency trading, with the Fed's potential for rate cuts being greater than that of other non-US central banks [3][10]. - The US labor market is anticipated to slow down, prompting the Fed to consider more accommodative monetary policies, especially with a potential change in leadership at the Fed [3][11]. - The dollar's decline is expected to be limited due to the absence of crowded long positions and the relative economic strength of the US compared to Europe and Japan [3][13]. Group 3: Renminbi (RMB) Dynamics - The core variables influencing the RMB exchange rate in 2026 will be the dollar's performance and changes in US-China trade relations, with a stable exchange rate policy likely impacting the RMB's trajectory [4][16]. - The RMB appreciated approximately 2.5% in the first three quarters of 2025, initially facing depreciation pressure due to tariffs but later benefiting from the dollar's decline and improved trade negotiations [14][15]. - The expectation is that the RMB will continue to appreciate moderately in 2026, supported by the weakening dollar and converging interest rates between China and the US [16][17].

Group 1: Market Overview - The liquidity easing trend is expected to continue until the first half of 2026, with a focus on cyclical economic recovery in the second half of the year [1][5] - The U.S. stock market has experienced a K-shaped divergence, with the MAG7 companies contributing significantly to market capitalization growth [2][6] - As of October 31, 2025, the MAG7 companies accounted for over 30% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization, contributing nearly 50% of the market's expansion since 2023 [6][10] Group 2: Technology Sector Analysis - The current technology market is reminiscent of the late 1990s, with a concentration on high-quality large-cap stocks, raising concerns about potential market bubbles [3][22] - The EPS growth contribution from top tech stocks has been substantial, with MAG7's EPS growth reaching 24.7% [23][34] - Speculative trading has increased, with leverage in the stock market nearing levels seen during the 2020 QE period [34][35] Group 3: Economic Projections - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain a K-shaped divergence, but the driving factors may become more balanced compared to the past [4][57] - Bloomberg forecasts a 13.7% EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 2026, with a slowdown in capital expenditure growth for MAG7 [57][59] - Traditional economic recovery is anticipated to accelerate, supported by reduced trade policy uncertainty and monetary easing [57][63] Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on profitable leading companies in the tech sector while gradually increasing exposure to cyclical sectors as the year progresses [5][64] - Historical data suggests that cyclical sectors tend to perform well after the end of a rate-cutting cycle, with significant positive returns expected [64][66] - Global diversification is recommended, with particular attention to developed markets like Germany and Switzerland, and emerging markets such as Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and India [65][67]

Group 1: Copper and Nickel Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts copper prices to remain in the range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton in 2026/2027 [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts nickel prices will decline by 6% to $14,500 per ton by December 2026 due to the need for Indonesian nickel producers to lower profit margins to limit supply growth [1] Group 2: Gold Price Predictions - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce expects gold prices to rise to $4,500 per ounce in 2026 and 2027, before falling to $4,250 in 2028 and $4,000 in 2029, driven by long-term inflation concerns [1] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to fears of long-term inflation and wealth preservation, as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has not adequately addressed these concerns [1] Group 3: Japanese Yen and Interest Rate Expectations - State Street Bank indicates that the delay in interest rate hikes has exacerbated the weakness of the Japanese yen, with market reactions expected if there is no consensus on the appointment of the new Prime Minister [2] Group 4: European Central Bank's Stance - Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests that the European Central Bank is unlikely to lower interest rates in the coming months despite a weak economic outlook, as they may view current economic weakness as temporary [3] Group 5: Chinese Market and Liquidity - China International Capital Corporation highlights October as a potential liquidity resonance window, suggesting that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks offer better value compared to U.S. stocks due to a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [4] - The report indicates that the recent escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions is expected to have a weaker impact on A-shares compared to previous events, with a focus on long-term asset revaluation in China [5] Group 6: Gold Market Dynamics - Guoxin Securities notes that the recent rise in gold prices is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and increased investment demand, marking the beginning of a new strong cycle for gold [6] Group 7: Energy Storage and Lithium Battery Sector - CITIC Securities continues to recommend the energy storage sector, citing a turning point in domestic energy storage economics and a favorable outlook for the lithium battery industry [7] Group 8: Cobalt and Rare Earth Strategic Opportunities - CITIC Securities identifies strategic opportunities in cobalt and rare earths, with new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo expected to lead to a market shift from surplus to shortage [8] Group 9: Market Volatility and Investment Strategy - Everbright Securities predicts that the market may enter a phase of wide fluctuations due to high valuations and cautious capital, while also noting potential support from upcoming policy expectations [9] Group 10: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Guoxin Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook for gold, suggesting that the third wave of opportunities may arise from shifts in capital flows due to the peak of the AI technology wave [10] Group 11: External Shocks and Chinese Market Opportunities - Guotai Junan Securities views external shocks as buying opportunities for the Chinese market, emphasizing the internal certainty of China's transformation and the demand for quality assets [11]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has seen a strong rebound, reaching historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing concerns about the U.S. government shutdown [1][3][6]. Price Movements - Gold prices opened the week at $3887.48 per ounce, hitting a low of $3884.01 before rebounding to a high of $4058.85, ultimately closing at $4012.63, marking a weekly increase of $128.31 or 3.3% [3][4]. - The price volatility included a significant drop to $3945 before recovering, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels [3][4]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical factors, including the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and U.S. government shutdown concerns, have contributed to fluctuations in gold prices [3][7]. - The market is also reacting to U.S. tariffs on imports and the World Trade Organization's downward revision of global trade growth forecasts for 2026, which have added to the uncertainty [3][5]. Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that even if gold prices do not rise, they will likely remain in a range-bound fluctuation due to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [5][6]. - Long-term projections indicate a potential for further increases in gold prices, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 gold price target to $4900 per ounce, supported by continued central bank purchases and a shift towards "de-dollarization" in emerging markets [5][6]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment remains bullish for gold, with a 52% increase in prices year-to-date, driven by factors such as interest rate cut expectations, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank buying [6][9]. - The market is expected to maintain a positive outlook, with key support levels to watch for potential buying opportunities [6][9].