Workflow
弱现实强预期
icon
Search documents
金信期货日刊-20251010
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 08:33
GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源:文华、金信期货 观点仅供参考,市场有风险,入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD 品种 周度观点 需求:9月受到开学和双节需求短暂提振,各方面数据保持稳定。但下游消费仍无明显改善,屠 宰企业鲜品走货一般,多数维持以销定产节奏,鲜销率未出现明显波动。 供给:周内猪价继续回落,养殖户恐慌出栏情绪仍存,节前社会场大猪供应持续偏高;规模集 团场来看,高成本企业已进入持续亏损状态,受后市悲观预期影响,场家亦有小幅降重加快出猪 现象,综合带动周内生猪出栏均重微幅回落。 生猪 库存:9 月份对应半年前仔猪出生和外销情况,规模企业商品猪存栏增加,且 8 月份养 殖端销售缓慢,尤其规模企业部分计划延后至 9 月份,因此预计 9 月商品猪存栏或环比增加。 结论:生猪仍处于供强需弱的状态,三季度以来,行业已经召开了三次行业大型会议,对于降 产能、降体重、严格限制二次育肥做了要求,但能繁母猪存栏量的减少传递到商品猪出栏量需要 10 个月左右时间,短期内供给压力难以根本缓解。生猪仍将维持"弱现实强预期"的局面。 G ...
豆粕仍处于弱现实强预期格局 价格重心小幅下移
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-17 08:11
Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and overall supply pressures impacting the market dynamics [1][2][3] Market Data Summary - On September 17, the main soybean meal futures contract closed at 3002.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.44% [1] - Coastal regions reported soybean meal prices ranging from 2960 to 3090 CNY/ton on September 16, with variations of a decrease of 20 CNY/ton to an increase of 20 CNY/ton compared to the previous day, and a decline of 0 to 20 CNY/ton compared to the same week last year [2] - The European Commission reported a 4.6% year-on-year decrease in soybean meal imports for the 2025/26 fiscal year, totaling 3.76 million tons as of September 14 [2] Export and Production Insights - Brazil's National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) projected soybean meal exports for September at 2.19 million tons, an increase from the previous week's estimate of 2.11 million tons [2] - Brazilian corn exports are expected to reach 7.12 million tons, up from 6.96 million tons the previous week [2] Institutional Perspectives - New Century Futures noted a slight reduction in U.S. soybean yield to 53.5 bushels per acre, but an increase in planting and harvesting area led to a total production rise to 4.301 billion bushels. Weak export demand, particularly to China, has resulted in an increase in ending stocks to 300 million bushels, with market focus on U.S.-China trade relations [3] - Hualian Futures highlighted that recent U.S.-China talks did not address soybean purchases, leaving concerns about domestic soybean shortages unresolved. Brazilian soybean planting is set to begin, with favorable weather conditions in late September [3] - The domestic soybean meal market is characterized by a "weak reality, strong expectations" scenario, with short-term supply limiting price increases. A wide fluctuation in soybean meal prices is anticipated, with support levels suggested between 2900 and 3000 CNY/ton [3]
“弱现实”vs“强预期”!市场人士:豆粕价格或延续偏强态势
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-04 23:39
Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in domestic soybean meal futures prices have been significant, with the 2601 contract dropping from 3190 yuan/ton to 3030 yuan/ton due to market expectations of potential U.S. soybean purchases by China, followed by a stabilization around 3040 yuan/ton [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current soybean meal market is characterized by a "weak reality, strong expectation" scenario, where domestic supply and demand are loose, but there are expectations of a supply gap in the fourth quarter [1] - Brazilian soybean price differentials have increased, raising import costs for China by approximately 40 yuan/ton, leading to a re-evaluation of soybean meal pricing [2] - China's soybean imports from the U.S. increased by 31.2% year-on-year from January to July, indicating proactive stocking by oil mills in anticipation of potential shortages [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Domestic soybean meal supply remains generally sufficient, with high import volumes and oil mill operating rates, but there is still a projected supply gap in the fourth quarter [2][3] - Current spot prices for soybean meal are stable around 3000 yuan/ton, with effective basis adjustments mitigating futures price volatility [3] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. soybean yield and potential procurement agreements between China and the U.S., as these factors directly influence global soybean supply [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - If the U.S. soybean cannot enter the Chinese market, the fourth quarter procurement gap could support soybean meal futures prices, particularly for later contracts [3] - The soybean meal market has not experienced a significant bull market due to abundant production, but global trade tensions have led to relatively strong performance within the agricultural sector [4] - Strategies suggest taking long positions on soybean meal at lower prices, while recommending arbitrage operations between soybean meal and other meal types due to differing supply dynamics [4]
养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250903
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The long - term view for soybean oil is bullish, but short - term increases may be tortuous. For Y2601, consider buying on dips around 8300 - 8310, with pressure at 8550 - 8600 yuan/ton [1]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce imports. The price of rapeseed oil is expected to be volatile in the short term, with support at 9580 - 9600 and pressure at 9998 - 10333 [1]. - Palm oil prices are under pressure from the decline in US soybean oil prices but are supported by factors such as poor production in Malaysia, good exports, and strong crude oil prices. Consider buying on dips with light positions, with support at 9200 - 9240 and pressure at 9736 - 9998 [2]. - The price of soybean meal is affected by the decline of US soybeans and weak supply. There is still support in the short - term, and the expectation of tight supply in the fourth quarter remains. Consider buying on dips, with support at 2980 - 3000 and pressure at 3180 - 3200 [2]. - The prices of corn and corn starch are under pressure from the fundamentals. Suggest reducing short positions on dips. For the 11 - contract of corn, the support is at 2100 - 2120, and the pressure is at 2240 - 2250; for the 11 - contract of corn starch, the support is at 2400 - 2420, and the pressure is at 2580 - 2590 [4]. - The price of soybean No.1 is affected by the supply increase from new beans and state - reserve auctions. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and consider shorting on rebounds. The 11 - contract has a pressure at 4145 - 4150 and support at 3850 - 3900 [5]. - The new season of peanuts has an expected increase in production and a decrease in cost. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term. The 11 - contract has support at 7500 - 7510 and pressure at 8020 - 8162 [6]. - The price of live pigs has rebounded from the low level. Consider holding long positions in the 11 - contract, and for the 2601 contract, wait for the confirmation of capacity reduction and then consider buying on dips [7]. - The price of eggs has stopped falling and rebounded. It is not recommended to short aggressively. Aggressive investors can consider buying on dips in the 2511 contract at the cash cost of farmers [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil 01 is expected to be volatile and bullish, consider buying on stabilization; rapeseed oil 01 is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see; palm oil 01 is expected to be volatile, consider buying on dips with light positions [11]. - **Proteins**: Soybean meal 01 is expected to be volatile and bullish, consider buying on stabilization; rapeseed meal 01 is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 11 and starch 11 are expected to be volatile at low levels, suggest reducing short positions on dips [11]. - **Livestock Farming**: Live pigs 11 are expected to rebound and be volatile, consider holding long positions; eggs 10 are expected to find the bottom while being volatile, consider buying on dips [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, except for soybean meal 3 - 5 which is recommended for positive arbitrage, and live pigs 1 - 3 and eggs 10 - 1 are recommended for positive arbitrage on dips [12][13]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For some varieties such as 01 soybean oil - palm oil, it is recommended for bearish operations; for 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, it is recommended for bullish operations; for 01 soybean meal - rapeseed meal, it is expected to be volatile at low levels [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties such as oils, fats, proteins, energy, and livestock farming products [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipment periods [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and startup rates of various oils and fats and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans at ports, the inventory of soybean meal at oil mills, etc [18][19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: The import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [19]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of corn and corn starch, including consumption, inventory, startup rate, etc., are presented [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - The daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, production, consumption, and inventory data, are provided [21][22][23][24][25]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming End (Live Pigs, Eggs)**: The closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, as well as the spot prices of live pigs, piglets, eggs, and culled chickens, are presented [26][27][29][30][32][34]. - **Oils and Fats and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: The production, export, inventory, and price spread data of Malaysian palm oil are presented [36][38][40][44]. - **Soybean Oil**: The data of US soybean crushing, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil mill startup rate, and inventory are presented [46][48]. - **Peanuts**: The data of peanut arrival, shipment, pressing profit, and inventory are presented [51][53]. - **Feed End**: - **Corn**: The closing price, spot price, inventory, and import data of corn are presented [55][58]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price, spot price, startup rate, and inventory data of corn starch are presented [59][60]. - **Rapeseed**: The spot price, basis, inventory, and pressing profit data of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are presented [61][63][65][67][69]. - **Soybean Meal**: The growth rate, inventory, basis, and price spread data of US soybeans are presented [74][76][78][80][82][84]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils and Fats - The historical volatility data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio data of corn options are presented [88][89]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils and Fats - The warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs are presented [92][93][94][95]
养殖油脂产业链周度策略报告-20250818
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil broke through and rose this week. The market is worried about the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter. The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The 01 contract of soybean oil may continue to rise based on the 8400 level. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main 01 contract, consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on imported Canadian rapeseed initially pushed up the price of rapeseed products. However, the import of rapeseed from other countries has alleviated supply concerns, and the price has fallen from its high. The price of palm oil provides some support, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The high - frequency data shows poor production of Malaysian palm oil. The export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15 increased by 21.3% month - on - month. The replenishment demand of importing countries supports the price. There are potential positive factors for the price, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: The price of soybean meal broke through and rose. The situation of Sino - US trade remains severe, and there is an expectation of tight supply of soybeans for oil extraction in the fourth quarter. The 09 contract of soybean meal is expected to be strong, and long positions can be held. The 09 contract of soybean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust [3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: After the change in trade policy, the price of rapeseed meal first rose and then fell. The supply can be partially supplemented by imports from other countries, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to stop falling and fluctuate [3][4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of soybean No. 1 oscillated at a low level this week. The price in the Northeast is stable, but there is a downward expectation. New soybeans in Hubei are gradually on the market, and it is recommended to try short positions with a light position [5]. - **Peanut**: The inventory of peanuts in the producing areas is low, and the import volume is small. The new - season planting area has increased, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest. It is recommended to short the 11 and 01 contracts on rebounds [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices continued to be weak this week. The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market also has supply pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously and consider option strategies such as selling wide - straddle combinations or out - of - the - money call options [7]. - **Pig**: The spot price of pigs was weakly volatile and generally stable over the weekend. Terminal consumption is expected to improve in late August. The futures price of far - month contracts rebounded after rising. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold long positions in the 2511 or 2601 contracts and buy the 2605 contract on dips [8][9]. - **Egg**: The spot price of eggs rebounded with fluctuations over the weekend. The current inventory is high, and the seasonal peak season in August needs further confirmation. It is recommended to buy the 10 or 11 contracts on dips and pay attention to the 11 - 1 spread [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply - Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 11 | Northeast soybean sentiment cools, new soybeans in Hubei are on the market, price expected to fall steadily | 3900 - 3930 | 4145 - 4150 | Oscillatory decline | Try short positions with a light position | | | Soybean No. 2 09 | Sino - US trade situation is severe, import cost rises, fewer purchases in the fourth quarter | 3640 - 3670 | 3950 - 4000 | Oscillatory strength | Temporarily wait and see | | | Peanut 11 | Low old - season inventory, increased new - season area, reduced cost | 7500 - 7600 | 8100 - 8162 | Oscillatory decline | Hold short positions | | Oils | Soybean Oil 01 | Fewer soybean purchases in the fourth quarter, expected tight supply in the future | 8230 - 8300 | 8880 - 9000 | Oscillatory rise | Hold long positions | | | Rapeseed Oil 01 | Fewer rapeseed purchases, increased imports from alternative countries | 9600 - 9610 | 10290 - 10333 | Oscillatory adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | | Palm Oil 01 | Good export demand in the origin, concerns about Indonesian production | 9050 - 9074 | 9990 - 9990 | Oscillatory strength | Hold long positions | | Proteins | Soybean Meal 09 | Sino - US trade situation is severe, fewer soybean purchases in the fourth quarter, good expectation | 2950 - 2980 | 3200 - 3250 | Oscillatory strength | Hold long positions | | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | Fewer rapeseed purchases, increased imports from alternative countries, weak demand | 2431 - 2460 | 2698 - 2708 | Oscillatory adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Imported corn auctions continue, new - season is under pressure, short - term price continues to seek the bottom | 2150 - 2160 | 2240 - 2250 | Oscillatory weakness | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 09 | Corn price at the cost end is under pressure, spot supply remains loose | 2590 - 2600 | 2720 - 2730 | Oscillatory weakness | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Pig 11 | Feed price stops falling and rebounds, industry has capacity - reduction policy | 13000 - 13500 | 14500 - 15000 | Oscillatory rebound | Hold long positions | | | Egg 10 | Capacity pressure + consumption peak - season expectation | 3200 - 3300 | 3600 - 3700 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Buy on dips | [12] 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis data of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [13][14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, such as the CNF price, import duty - paid price, and cost of soybean meal or rapeseed meal when the crushing profit is zero [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rate data of various oilseeds and oils, such as the inventory of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, peanuts, and the operating rate of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil production [16]. 3.2.2 Feed The report provides the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of deep - processing enterprises [16]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Pig**: It provides the weekly data of the pig market, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and other indicators [17]. - **Egg**: It provides the weekly data of the egg market, including supply - side data (production rate, inventory, etc.), demand - side data (inventory), and profit data [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Pig and Egg)**: It includes charts of the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related data [20][21][22][23][25][26][27]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: It includes charts of the production, export, inventory, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [29][36][43]. - **Feed**: It includes charts of the prices, basis, inventory, consumption, and profit data of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [47][55][63][69]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides charts of the historical volatility of various varieties and the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [70][75][76]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides charts of the warehouse receipt quantity of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pig, and egg [81][82][83][84][89][91]
生猪:月末缩量拉涨,关注持续性
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent active weight - reduction by groups, combined with the limited downstream digestion capacity during the off - season, has led to a rapid decline in spot prices, indicating that the previous price increase was mainly driven by inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of a price increase from late July to early August may result in more concentrated slaughter, causing the spot to remain weak. With strong macro - sentiment support for the far - end, the market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,600 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,640 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the LH2509 contract is 14,075 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; the price of the LH2511 contract is 13,885 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the price of the LH2601 contract is 14,145 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 245 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the LH2509 contract is 29,045 lots, a decrease of 4,243 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 45,199 lots, a decrease of 7,850 lots from the previous day. The trading volume of the LH2511 contract is 17,372 lots, an increase of 4,950 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 50,621 lots, an increase of 625 lots from the previous day. The trading volume of the LH2601 contract is 16,801 lots, an increase of 2,798 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 40,215 lots, a decrease of 1,637 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the LH2509 contract is 255 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2511 contract is 445 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 620 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2601 contract is 185 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 645 yuan/ton. The spread between LH2509 and LH2511 is 190 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 220 yuan/ton; the spread between LH2511 and LH2601 is - 260 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 25 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]. 3.3 Market Logic - The market is currently in a situation where groups are actively reducing weights, consumption is in the off - season, and downstream digestion is limited, leading to a weak spot market. The strong macro - sentiment supports the far - end, resulting in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit for the short - term LH2509 contract, with a support level of 13,500 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 15,000 yuan/ton [4].
盘面镍价小幅上涨,现货升贴水持稳
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 07:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, despite the lack of improvement in the nickel fundamentals, due to the long - term decline in nickel prices and the recent shift in market macro - sentiment, a situation of weak reality and strong expectation has formed. It is expected that nickel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, although there is no major change in the stainless - steel fundamentals, considering the long - term decline in stainless - steel prices and the recent shift in market macro - sentiment, a weak reality and strong expectation situation has emerged. It is predicted that stainless - steel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Analysis - **Price and Trading Volume**: On July 24, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 opened at 123,810 yuan/ton and closed at 124,360 yuan/ton, a 0.66% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 162,621 lots, and the open interest was 98,904 lots [1]. - **Market Trend**: The night session of the Shanghai nickel main contract quickly rose and then fell back and consolidated. The day session continued to rise slightly and then oscillated and fell, with a slight rebound in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume and open interest increased compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation was raised by about 600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream brand quotations in the market all increased accordingly. The refined nickel spot premium mostly remained stable. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed, and the trading volume was average. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 1,950 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,971 tons, and LME nickel inventory was 204,456 tons, a decrease of 1,416 tons [2]. Nickel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly operate within a range. - **Other Strategies**: No recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [3]. Stainless - Steel Market Analysis - **Price and Trading Volume**: On July 24, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2509 opened at 12,945 yuan/ton and closed at 12,935 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 144,303 lots, and the open interest was 120,333 lots [3]. - **Market Trend**: The night session of the stainless - steel main contract oscillated horizontally after opening, and the day session continued to oscillate, with a slight rise near the close in the afternoon, closing with a doji. The trading volume decreased compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest increased [3]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold in August, and a mine has offered a 1.3% FOB31 quotation, showing a month - on - month decline. In Indonesia, the weather has improved slightly, the nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel ore market has weakened. The domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically flat month - on - month. There was an obvious spread in the domestic trade premium, with transactions at + 23 - 28, but + 24 remained the mainstream premium. Recently, a nickel - iron plant in Indonesia had concentrated transactions at 920 - 922 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hold), and the nickel - iron negotiation range has moved up, with nickel - iron prices running steadily and slightly stronger [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot trading became lighter due to the oscillation of the disk today, and the trading volume was average. The inventory decreased significantly this week, and the downstream replenishment was over. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,900 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 65 - 265 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 908.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Stainless - Steel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Other Strategies**: No recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [4].
碳酸锂期价盘中大幅拉涨超7% 究竟发生了什么?
news flash· 2025-07-24 04:39
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures prices, which surged over 7% on July 24, driven by market sentiment and concerns over mining rights [1] - There are reports of a major mica mine potentially ceasing operations, although this information has not been confirmed, leading to heightened market speculation and emotional trading [1] - The current market for lithium is characterized by a "weak reality strong expectation" dynamic, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals, indicating a medium-term oversupply situation [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the sentiment and funding aspects are currently more influential on lithium prices than the fundamental factors, with a notable increase in open interest by over 110,000 contracts [1] - There is an expectation that concerns regarding mining rights will continue to develop until September, creating a window for market speculation [1] - The article advises investors to remain rational regarding market news and suggests a wait-and-see approach until short-term emotions subside before considering short positions [1]
新能源及有色金属日报:不锈钢盘面回落,现货成交转弱-20250724
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 03:01
Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On July 23, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai Nickel opened at 123,890 yuan/ton and closed at 123,370 yuan/ton, a change of -0.06% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 133,758 lots and an open interest of 95,734 lots [1] - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel opened with a gap - up in the night session, quickly soared and then fell back, and consolidated at a high level. In the day session, it oscillated and declined, and rebounded slightly in the afternoon, closing with a long - shadowed negative line. The trading volume and open interest decreased compared with the previous trading day [2] - On July 22, local time, US President Trump announced trade agreements with Japan and the Philippines. He also said he "might visit China in the near future". Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 - 30 [2] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Nickel's morning quotation was raised by about 500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream brand quotations in the market also increased accordingly. The premium of Jinchuan's ex - factory price over Shanghai Nickel declined. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and the trading was average. The premium of Jinchuan Nickel changed from 0 to 2,000 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed from 50 to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton [2] - The previous trading day's Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,971 (- 122.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 205,872 (- 2,220) tons [2] Group 2: Nickel Strategy - The fundamentals of nickel have not improved, but the nickel price has fallen for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that the nickel price will test the upper pressure in the near future [3] - For nickel trading strategies, it is mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On July 23, 2025, the main contract 2508 of stainless steel opened at 12,890 yuan/ton and closed at 12,900 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 226,003 lots and an open interest of 122,384 lots [3] - The main contract of stainless steel quickly pulled up in the night session and then oscillated horizontally. In the day session, it oscillated and declined, and rebounded slightly in the afternoon, closing with a long - shadowed negative line. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [3] - In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold in August, and a mine has offered a price of FOB31 for 1.3% grade, which has declined month - on - month. In Indonesia, the weather has improved slightly, the nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel ore market has weakened. The second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in July declined by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically flat month - on - month. There are obvious spreads in domestic trade premiums, with transactions ranging from + 23 to + 28, but + 24 is still the mainstream premium [3] - Recently, a nickel - iron plant in Indonesia had concentrated transactions at 920 - 922 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold), the negotiation range of nickel - iron prices has shifted upward, and the nickel - iron price is running steadily and slightly stronger [3] - In the spot market, the price oscillated and declined today, and the afternoon trading of spot goods weakened significantly. The daily trading was average, worse than the previous two days. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 12,900 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is also 12,900 yuan/ton. The SMM data shows that the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 4.50 yuan/nickel point to 907.5 yuan/nickel point [4] Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - The fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly, but the stainless steel price has fallen for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that stainless steel will test the upper pressure in the near future [4] - For stainless steel trading strategies, it is neutral for single - side trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]
镍价盘面上涨,升贴水略有回落
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 05:37
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of nickel have not improved, but due to the long - term decline in nickel prices and the recent shift in market macro - sentiment, a situation of weak reality and strong expectation has formed. It is expected that nickel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly. Similar to nickel, due to the long - term price decline and the shift in market macro - sentiment, it is expected that stainless steel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [5]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2508 opened at 123,310 yuan/ton and closed at 123,530 yuan/ton, a change of 1.51% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,036 lots, and the open interest was 35,618 lots. The night - session opened with a gap - up and rose rapidly, then oscillated and declined after midnight. The day - session continued to oscillate and decline, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow yang line. The trading volume decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [1][2]. - **Macro News**: Germany plans to invest 631 billion euros by 2028 to boost the economy. Brazil and the US may start a "tariff war". The EU is preparing to counter - attack. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stability - growth work plans for ten key industries including non - ferrous metals [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation increased by about 700 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The prices of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The spot premium mostly remained stable, while the premiums of Huayou and Sumitomo resources decreased slightly. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. Jinchuan nickel's premium was 0 - 2000 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium was 0 - 350 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,093 (- 18.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 208,092 ( + 216) tons [2]. - **Strategy**: For nickel, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2509 opened at 12,870 yuan/ton and closed at 12,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 192,092 lots, and the open interest was 124,058 lots. The night - session opened with a rapid rise and then oscillated horizontally. The day - session oscillated and declined, and recovered the morning's decline in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow yang line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [3]. - **Supply and Demand News**: The 1.2 - trillion - yuan investment in Yajiang Hydropower is expected to drive stainless steel demand. In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold in August, with a 1.3% FOB31 quotation, showing a month - on - month decline. In Indonesia, the tight supply of nickel ore has been alleviated due to the production cuts of local smelters. The domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, with a basically flat month - on - month change. There was an obvious spread in the domestic trade premium, with transactions ranging from + 23 to + 28, but + 24 was still the mainstream premium. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also shut down [3][4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market's afternoon trading was significantly better than the morning's, and the spot price increased slightly. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 12,900 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 120 - 320 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 903.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy**: For stainless steel, the single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].