低低低低低低 锌周报2026/2/27 作者：柳晓怡 审核：李文涛 从业资格证号：F03149999 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 交易咨询证号：Z0023297 联系方式：liuxiaoyi@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 本周观点 ◼ 资金面：年后资金呈现显著结构性分化，有色金属波动率均有趋势性下行；沪锌持仓量仅增不到7000手，远低于去年同期的市场活跃度。 ◼ 基本面：1、短期基本面或缺乏驱动，3月是验证旺季真伪时点。 ◼ 宏观面：1、特朗普关税事情基本定价完成，美国政治不确定性增加、"弱美元"逻辑强化。 2、美联储降息路径存在高度不确定性。 3、国内两会即将召开（3月4日-3月中旬），房地产政策加码托底。 ◼ 整体上，锌基本面短期缺乏明确驱动，但3月宏观层面预计逐步转向risk on态势，因此预计锌价短期或呈现震荡偏强走势，重点关注下周 库存数据变动。 资金流向 | | 【持仓】5日资金总流向(单位:亿元) | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 5日流。 | | | | DA | 曲线 | | 灰酸锂 | 294.32 | | | 棉花 | 157.80 ...

新兴市场股票正逐渐成为今年以来全球股票市场最热门的投资与交易主题之一，并且全球最顶级基金经理们愈发偏好广义上的新兴市场资 产——包含新兴市场股票、债券以及主权货币类资产。花旗集团的股票分析师团队表示，来自全球最大规模的那些资产管理机构的基金经 理们已大幅增加对亚洲、拉丁美洲以及欧洲、中东和非洲新兴市场股票资产的多头仓位。 华尔街金融巨头花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)的分析师们在审阅投资型基金们已公开发布的展望后表示，全球最大规模的那些资产管理机构—— 累计管理着逾20万亿美元资产，正在大举买入新兴市场股票标的/新兴市场ETF、本币债券甚至某些信用类资产，押注强劲的全球经济增长 态势、受益于全球AI基建狂潮的算力链高度集中和持续走弱的美元将利好新兴市场资产。 花旗集团的股票分析师团队表示，基金经理们已大幅增加对亚洲、拉丁美洲以及欧洲、中东和非洲新兴市场股票资产的多头仓位。新兴市 场债券则是他们最偏好的久期资产押注，与基金经理们对于美国国债和核心欧洲主权债券的空头仓位形成鲜明对比。花旗表示，在信用市 场中，新兴市场公司债务获得最大幅度的超配，而美国投资级债券仍是热门的低配或者减持对象。 即使本周全球市场 ...

转自：新华财经 国贸期货：贵金属牛市逻辑仍旧坚固 建议以逢低多配为主 恒泰期货：地缘局势、宽松预期和弱美元提振贵金属 广发期货：警惕黄金大涨之后多头集中止盈 法国兴业银行（SociétéGénérale）：黄金将继续在全球外汇储备中发挥重要作用 华侨银行（OCBC）：金价上行风险正在重建 【机构观点分析】 国贸期货研报指出，短期市场或仍需继续消化特朗普新关税政策以及美伊紧张局势的持续发酵带来的不 确定性，贵金属价格有望维持偏强运行，直至局势出现新的进展或美国对伊朗的军事行动落地。中长期 来看，贵金属牛市的底层逻辑仍旧坚固，建议投资者以逢低多配为主。黄金将继续凭借货币与避险属 性，在美国债务扩张持续削弱美元信用、地缘政治局势复杂及流动性宽松延续等多重因素共振下，全球 央行／机构／居民的配置需求有望延续，驱动价格重心继续上移。 恒泰期货25日早盘观点认为，中东地区局势持续紧张，美军在相关区域军事部署加剧了市场对潜在冲突 的担忧，弹性避险需求增强了黄金的战略配置价值。同时，市场对美联储降息预期持续发酵，"宽松预 期+弱美元"修复通道延续，提振了以美元计价的贵金属价格。节后内盘贵金属价格或呈现跟随行情， 高波动率背景 ...

最近，美国公布两大关键数据，降息预期升温。 第一大关键数据，美国经济放缓，2025年第四季度实际GDP年化初值环比增长1.4%，第三季度终值为4.4%，大幅回落，主因是政府支出和出口转为下 降，消费者支出增速放缓。 第二大关键数据，美国物价回落，1月整体CPI同比上涨2.4%，比2025年12月的2.7%大回落0.3个百分点，创下近期通胀新低。 数据公布后，交易员对美联储6月实施降息的概率预期大幅攀升至83%（此前为49.9%）。 白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特近期表示，美联储还有很大的降息空间。 特朗普平均每个月至少三次提及降息："美国的利率应该是世界上最低的"，美联储主席人选凯文·沃什"只需要降低利率就行了"，"强美元损害美国"。 据此判断，2026年美联储降息放水将超预期，特朗普正推行"降息+弱美元"战略，目标降低债务负担，吸引制造业回流。 截至2026年2月，美国债务规模38.7万亿美元，过去15年，以年均7.2%的速度高速增长，远超2%的GDP实际增速。2025财年（2024年10月1日-2025年9月30 日）净利息支出约为9700亿美元，净利息支出占GDP比重约为 3.2%。债务压顶，去年因为预算 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2026 年 2 月 11 日 冲击高峰已过，恒科触底反弹 ——港股 2 月策略月报 近期恒生科技走势较弱，我们坚定认为这是一次剧烈的流动性冲击，港股科技 的基本面与做多逻辑没有发生改变。当前海外流动性冲击高峰已过，"buy the dip"是有效策略，并且港股科技相对于 A 股科技的折价接近历史最高水平，或 将迎来触底反弹。往后看去，我们建议逢低买入、持股过节，细分方向上推荐 科技（AI 与互联网）、非银（保险）与红利。 ❑ 配置策略：科技（AI 与互联网、高端制造），非银（保险），红利 ❑ 风险提示：1）美联储货币政策转向；2）流动性大幅波动；3）黑天鹅事件。 专题报告 相关报告 3、《当前时点坚定看好恒生科 技的六大理由——港股系列研 究报告（3）》 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 王德健 研究助理 wangdejian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 港股 2 月核心观点。近期以恒生科技为代表的港 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent declines in technology stocks globally are attributed to liquidity shocks from the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair and a lack of new catalysts in the AI sector, particularly following the release of Anthropic's new AI tool, which raised concerns about the disruption of traditional software business models [2][36] Market Analysis - The market is expected to experience volatility in February, with a potential for stronger performance post-holiday compared to pre-holiday levels. The main focus will shift towards sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, food and beverages, and construction materials benefiting from major projects outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][36] - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, has shown signs of recovery potential, especially if the liquidity shock subsides or new catalysts emerge in the AI industry [8][19] Sector Performance - The A-share market has seen a mixed performance, with consumer leaders and large-cap value stocks performing well, while tech-heavy indices like the STAR Market and tech leaders have struggled [37] - The manufacturing sector's PMI has shown a decline, indicating a contraction in activity, while heavy truck sales have seen a significant year-on-year increase, suggesting some resilience in specific segments [40][52] Investment Trends - There has been a notable outflow of financing funds, with a net outflow of 34.59 billion yuan in the first four trading days of the week. However, there has been a net subscription in ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4][56] - The recent launch of Anthropic's AI tool has triggered a sell-off in legal and data service stocks, raising fundamental questions about the profitability and growth prospects of the SaaS industry [22][26] Future Outlook - The software industry is undergoing a structural adjustment rather than a fundamental collapse, with a shift towards AI-native intelligent services expected to redefine business models [32][35] - The Chinese SaaS industry is positioned to benefit from ongoing digital transformation demands, with AI viewed as an enabling tool rather than a direct disruptor of existing business models [33][35]

Group 1: Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone's January CPI is reported at 1.7%, down from 1.9% in December and below the economist forecast of 1.8% [1][6] - Core CPI decreased from 2.3% to 2.2%, and service sector CPI slowed to 3.2%, indicating easing price pressures across multiple sectors [1][6] - Inflation rates among the 21 EU member states show significant divergence, with Germany at 2.1% and France unexpectedly dropping to 0.4%, the lowest in five years [1][6] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Policy - The market widely expects the ECB to maintain the key interest rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive time during its upcoming policy meeting [1][6] - The ECB is likely to reaffirm its assessment that monetary policy is "in a good place" [1][6] Group 3: U.S. Economic Commentary - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the President has the authority to influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [2][7] - The U.S. dollar index fell over 9% last year, with Yellen affirming support for a strong dollar policy, which contrasts with former President Trump's preference for a weaker dollar [2][7] Group 4: Currency Market Movements - The U.S. dollar index showed slight gains, trading around 97.60, supported by short covering and better-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing PMI data [3][8] - The euro traded around 1.1800, facing pressure from the dollar's rebound and the lowest core inflation data in nearly five years [4][9] - The British pound traded around 1.3650, impacted by a stronger dollar and weak economic data from the UK [5][10]

黄金一天暴跌12%，白银闪崩36%，这场贵金属的"史诗级暴跌"让所有投资者都懵了。 但更让人震惊的是，这背后隐藏着一个"7西格玛事件"在统计学上， 这相当于数百万年才可能发生一次的极端情况。 就在贵金属市场血流成河的同一天，印尼股市崩了，韩国Kospi指数暴跌5%，全球资金像无头苍蝇一样四处逃窜。 而这一切的起点，都指向同一个信号：大 家开始不相信老美了。 美联储新掌门：华尔街的"救火队长"来了 2026年1月30日，特朗普正式提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席。 这位1970年出生的斯坦福高材生，可不是一般意义上的经济学家。 他有着投行背景，在 摩根士丹利做过并购，2008年金融危机时成为美联储与华尔街之间的沟通桥梁。 沃什最引人注目的主张是"缩表 降息"的政策组合拳。 简单来说，他既想降低利率刺激经济，又要缩减美联储的资产负债表规模。 这种看似矛盾的做法，让 市场一下子慌了神。 信任崩塌：从内部瓦解的美元基石 美国联邦债务已经突破38万亿美元，每年光利息就要还1万亿美元。 2025年，美国创下了持续43天的联邦政府最长"停摆"纪录。 更让国际社会担忧的是，美联储的独立性正在受到侵蚀。 特朗普公开施压降息，司 ...

首先，美联储货币政策预期成为短期市场交易主线。 北京时间1月30日，特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任美联储主席。沃什强调央行 的独立性，其核心理念是将货币政策与财政政策分开，并明确支持美联储未来推进大幅缩表。而沃什的降息立场总体偏谨慎。换言之，沃什认为美联储后 续应实施 "降息+缩表" 的政策组合，并推动美联储开展 "制度性变革"，主张让货币政策回归 货币数量调控与制度约束的框架。 2025年以来，"弱美元"一直是市场的共识，沃什的施政理念能否改变市场的定价逻辑，仍有相当大的不确定性。 短期来看，商品市场和风险资产都在计入强美元预期，这或许是短期市场的核心影响因素。 其次，周一两市大幅调整，量能出现萎缩。 沪指低开低走，全天处于持续下跌状态，收盘跌破30天均线。深圳成指同样大幅下跌，日线四连阴，正 在逼近60天均线。两市成交金额约2.5 万亿元，较1月日均成交量大幅回落。当天市场热点主要集中在食品饮料和银行等防御性行业。投资风格方面，中小 盘和科技股跌幅更大。 从运行节奏看，沪指横盘整理后，向下突破。 沪指于1月中旬进入横向震荡阶段，但2月开局便直接向下调整，目前已经击穿了30天均线，正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets experienced a dramatic shift from extreme enthusiasm to panic within a month, with significant price fluctuations driven by various factors [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices surged from $4318.27 per ounce on January 1 to a peak of $5598.75 on January 29, marking an increase of nearly 30% [1]. - Silver prices saw an even more extreme rise, climbing over 60% from $72.824 per ounce on January 2 to $121.647 on January 29 [1]. - On January 30, gold prices plummeted by over 12%, marking the largest single-day drop since 1983, closing down more than $500 per ounce, while silver fell by 26.42% [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The sharp decline in gold and silver prices led to significant drops in A-share gold concept stocks and resource stocks, contributing to a broader market adjustment [1]. - The National Investment Silver LOF faced heightened pressure, with its net asset value at 3.28 yuan and a market price of 5.25 yuan, reflecting a premium of about 60% [2]. - The market interpreted the drop in gold and silver prices as a reaction to the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman known for a hawkish stance on inflation, which led to a strong rebound in the dollar [2]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - The decline in gold and silver prices is seen as a natural conclusion to the investment frenzy, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a balanced approach to asset allocation [3]. - Investors are advised to adhere to a "risk-neutral" principle, focusing on service and product profitability rather than speculating on price movements [3]. - Despite the price drop, demand for physical gold remains, indicating ongoing interest in gold and silver as a hedge against inflation [4].