盘中10：30-14：00时段，市场将进入多空拉锯状态，板块轮动加速。 "整个假期我都在盯着A50期指和港股走势，10月2日A50大涨1.06%后连续震荡四个交易日，这给明天A股开盘埋下了伏笔。 "一位散户在投资论坛的留言道 出了许多股民的心声。 这个长假，投资者们一边度假一边盯盘，内心备受煎熬。 历史数据显示，近十年国庆节后首日A股上涨概率高达70%，节后5个交易日的上涨概率也达到60%。 2025年10月9日，A股市场将结束为期8天的国庆假期恢 复交易。 假期期间全球股市普遍上涨，日经225指数突破47000点大关创历史新高，港股恒生指数假期涨幅达9.3%，恒生科技指数飙升12.8%。 这一全球普涨格局为A 股节后补涨提供了外部基础。 当MSCI全球指数假期涨幅超过2%时，A股节后首日上涨概率达83%。 多家机构对明天市场走势的判断出奇一致：低开高走、震荡蓄势。 10月9日市场将经历"先抑后扬，震荡蓄势"的过程，盘初存在技术性调整压力，但随着市 场情绪稳定和资金回流，尾盘有望获得支撑。 早盘9：30-10：30时段，市场可能面临技术性调整压力。 由于假期期间不确定因素消化以及部分获利盘了结，指数可能低开或 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Day holiday has led to increased attention on private equity fund positioning and their outlook for post-holiday market trends [1] Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are opting for heavy or full positions during the holiday, indicating a positive outlook for market trends post-holiday [2][4] - The overall private equity position index has risen to a new high for the year, reaching 78.41%, reflecting a general trend of increasing positions among private equity funds [5] - A majority of private equity funds believe that the recent market adjustments have mitigated risks, leading to an expectation of continued market rebound post-holiday [4][5] Group 2: Market Outlook Post-Holiday - Approximately 70.19% of private equity funds hold an optimistic view regarding the A-share market's performance after the holiday, anticipating a gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [7] - 62.50% of private equity funds expect a balanced market style post-holiday, with rotation among technology growth, value blue chips, and high-quality stocks [7][8] - The focus on technology growth remains strong, with 59.62% of private equity funds prioritizing sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals for investment [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Themes - Private equity funds are particularly optimistic about sectors benefiting from policy support and economic transformation, such as AI and semiconductors [8][10] - Some funds are also looking at opportunities in undervalued sectors like renewable energy and real estate, anticipating valuation recovery [8][10] - The investment strategy is expected to balance between growth and value, with a focus on sectors that show resilience and potential for recovery [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positioning of private equity funds ahead of the National Day holiday, indicating a general optimism about the market's performance post-holiday, with a significant majority opting for high exposure levels [2][5][6]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are choosing to hold heavy or full positions (over 70% exposure) during the holiday, believing that external market disturbances will be limited and that domestic fundamentals and policy environments provide a solid safety margin [5][6]. - 17.31% of private equity funds are adopting a moderately heavy position (50% to 70% exposure), citing the presence of uncertainties during the holiday but still recognizing structural opportunities in individual stocks [5]. - Only 5.77% of private equity funds are opting for light positions (less than 30% exposure), reflecting a cautious stance due to significant market gains prior to the holiday and potential for adjustments post-holiday [5][6]. Group 2: Market Outlook Post-Holiday - 70.19% of private equity funds are optimistic about the A-share market's performance after the holiday, viewing pre-holiday market fluctuations as a consolidation phase, with expectations for gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [8][12]. - 62.50% of private equity funds anticipate a balanced market style post-holiday, with rotations among technology growth, value blue chips, and high-quality stocks [8][9]. - The focus on technology growth remains strong, with 59.62% of private equity funds favoring sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are seen as key drivers for future economic transformation [9][12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Themes - The article highlights a consensus among private equity funds that the investment focus will remain on technology growth, with 23.08% firmly optimistic about sectors like AI and semiconductors continuing to perform well [9][10]. - 21.15% of private equity funds are looking at the valuation recovery of the new energy and real estate sectors, expecting these low-valuation areas to provide rebound opportunities as industry policies clarify [9][10]. - The article also notes that 14.42% of private equity funds foresee a "high-low switch" in the market, where previously lagging traditional industries and high-dividend blue chips may experience a resurgence [9].

国庆长假临近，私募基金的仓位选择及其对节后行情的研判，备受市场关注。 私募排排网最新调查结果显示，六成以上私募选择重仓甚至满仓过节，并普遍看好行情趋势在节后延 续，私募整体仓位指数也升至了年内新高。 国庆节后，A股走势将如何演绎？ 长假在即，私募如何平衡机会与风险？ 调查数据显示，65.38%的私募倾向于重仓或满仓过节（仓位>70%），认为假期期间外围市场扰动有 限，国内基本面和政策环境提供了充足的安全边际。这些私募表示，节前的行情调整已释放了部分风 险，节后市场有望延续反弹格局，因此选择了积极持仓。 此外，17.31%的私募选择中等偏重仓位过节（50%≤仓位≤70%），其逻辑在于假期存在不确定性，但个 股的结构性机会仍值得把握，因此仓位保持了适度进攻；11.54%的私募则选择中等偏轻仓位过节 （30%≤仓位<50%），这部分私募强调长假期间外围市场的扰动风险不容忽视，因此采取稳健策略更为 合适；仅有5.77%的私募选择轻仓过节（仓位<30%），其态度显然相对谨慎，认为节前市场涨幅已较 大，节后存在调整的概率。<> 整体而言，尽管有一部分资金因担心假期"黑天鹅"扰动而在节前倾向于审慎，但上述择仓数据仍透露私 ...

9月29日，市场全天震荡走强，三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘，沪指涨0.90%，深成指涨2.05%，创业板 指涨2.74%。 板块方面，证券、有色金属、固态电池等板块涨幅居前，教育、猪肉、煤炭等板块跌幅居前。 全市场超3500只个股上涨。沪深两市成交额2.16万亿元，较上一个交易日放量146亿。 券商板块本月第二次大涨 同花顺数据显示，截至收盘，证券板块大涨4.40%，"一阳穿多线"；目前月线仍下跌2.67%。 本月21个交易日里，该板块累计走出8阳13阴，但仅有两根阳线单日涨幅超过2%，上一次还是9月11 日。 今天是九月份乃至三季度的倒数第二个交易日，也是节前最后一个"出金日"。 通常来说，等到明天，市场"担子"就轻了，会有更强的"红包"行情预期。 而今天盘中一处重要变化，或许更有利于这种预期的蔓延。 那就是，"牛市旗手"终于异动了。 这说明，近期沪指横盘震荡，多少受到了"牛市旗手"表现偏弱的影响。 或者说，券商股近期主要充当着市场"节奏调节器"的角色，有意避免市场情绪过热。即便今天，沪指在 证券、保险等板块带动下一度涨至3881点后，也随之小幅回落。 消息面来看，盘中据新华社报道，中共中央政治局9月29日召 ...

每日经济新闻消息，9月29日，市场全天震荡走强，三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘，沪指涨0.90%，深 成指涨2.05%，创业板指涨2.74%。 板块方面，证券、有色金属、固态电池等板块涨幅居前，教育、猪肉、煤炭等板块跌幅居前。 全市场超3500只个股上涨。沪深两市成交额2.16万亿元，较上一个交易日放量146亿。 今天是九月份乃至三季度的倒数第二个交易日，也是节前最后一个"出金日"。 通常来说，等到明天，市场"担子"就轻了，会有更强的"红包"行情预期。 而今天盘中一处重要变化，或许更有利于这种预期的蔓延。 那就是，"牛市旗手"终于异动了。 券商板块本月第二次大涨 同花顺数据显示，截至收盘，证券板块大涨4.40%，"一阳穿多线"；目前月线仍下跌2.67%。 消息面来看，盘中据新华社报道，中共中央政治局9月29日召开会议，研究制定国民经济和社会发展第 十五个五年规划重大问题。会议决定，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议于10月20日至23 日在北京召开。 那么问题来了： 平时有点"拖后腿"的板块一反常态，终于开始引领市场情绪，会是什么信号呢？ 本月21个交易日里，该板块累计走出8阳13阴，但仅有两根阳线单日涨 ...

Group 1: Market Data Summary - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a -15.67bp change, DR007 at 1.53 with a -7.04bp change, GC001 at 1.36 with a -13.50bp change, and GC007 at 0.00 with a -187.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.39 (-1.00bp), 1.63 (-0.73bp), and 1.88 (-0.78bp) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.20 with a 2.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 2467.4 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 940.6 billion yuan [4] - This week, 516.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchase will mature, with 240.5 billion and 276.1 billion maturing on Monday and Tuesday respectively, and 300 billion yuan in 182 - day buy - out reverse repurchase maturing on Tuesday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices: CSI 300 at 4550 (-0.95%), SSE 50 at 2941 (-0.40%), CSI 500 at 7241 (-1.37%), and CSI 1000 at 7398 (-1.45%) [6] - The closing prices and changes of index futures contracts: IF at 4543 (-0.9%), IH at 2945 (-0.3%), IC at 7203 (-1.2%), and IM at 7357 (-1.2%) [6] - Trading volume and open interest changes: IF volume decreased by 9.3% to 121085, IH volume decreased by 6.9% to 48226, IC volume increased by 4.9% to 136035, and IM volume increased by 14.2% to 242990; IF open interest decreased by 2.4% to 259924, IH open interest increased by 1.1% to 95988, IC open interest increased by 1.4% to 252224, and IM open interest increased by 3.3% to 364864 [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9, SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7, CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2; only the power equipment (3.9%) and electronics (3.5%) sectors in the Shenwan primary industry index rose, while banking (-0.5%), non - ferrous metals (-3.5%), non - banking finance (-0.1%), steel (-1.1%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-2%) led the decline [6] - As of September 25, the margin trading balance in the A - share market was 2436.61 billion yuan, an increase of 46.18 billion yuan from the previous week [6] Group 3: Market Outlook and Analysis - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a self - centered approach while considering internal and external balance, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [5] - Recently, the macro news has been calm, and the stock index has been oscillating; due to poor domestic economic data, there is a stronger expectation for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending [7] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in October, focusing on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan and analyzing the current economic situation, which is worthy of attention [7] - The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims to guide the A - share market to a "slow - bull" pattern, and it is recommended to adjust and go long, while controlling positions before the holiday [7] Group 4: Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates: 0.00% for the current - month contract, 2.62% for the next - month contract, 2.45% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.31% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH premium/discount rates: -2.73% for the current - month contract, -0.50% for the next - month contract, -0.51% for the current - quarter contract, and -0.04% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC premium/discount rates: 10.16% for the current - month contract, 9.81% for the next - month contract, 9.89% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.76% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM premium/discount rates: 10.54% for the current - month contract, 11.55% for the next - month contract, 12.54% for the current - quarter contract, and 12.13% for the next - quarter contract [8]

新华财经上海9月29日电中信建投证券研报分析认为，国庆假期前往往出现流动性收缩特征，但这种冷 清多为 "情绪性缩量"。同时国庆一般呈现"节后开门红"的特征，牛市中节后涨幅通常维持更持久，并 且往往呈现出长假与利多事件催化同时发生的典型市场特点，持股过节性价比较高。 近期市场关注点主要集中在国内政策和产业结构性景气，对中美关系关注度有所不足，而9月以来中美 关系存在阶段性改善的迹象，或在四季度逐步被市场定价。市场资金在算力板块集中交易后，逐步向其 他低位景气成长赛道切换，中期市场或仍延续慢牛格局。在宏观经济尚未全面复苏的背景下，具备结构 性景气的新赛道仍将成为投资的胜负手。重点关注催化事件较集中的景气板块：半导体、新能源、人形 机器人、创新药、有色等。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

中信建投认为，国庆假期前往往出现流动性收缩特征，但这种冷清多为"情绪性缩量"。同时国庆一般呈 现"节后开门红"的特征，牛市中节后涨幅通常维持更持久，并且往往呈现出长假与利多事件催化同时发 生的典型市场特点，持股过节性价比较高。近期市场关注点主要集中在国内政策和产业结构性景气，预 计中期A股市场或仍延续慢牛格局。 国投证券认为，当前A股并未进入到非理性过热的状态，呈现"体量创新高、热度未极端、驱动力不均 衡、结构性鲜明"；大致的结论是：牛市或并未结束但或已进入考验基本面接力与风格切换的关键阶 段。牛市能否持续，往往取决于行情的广度与深度是否匹配。广度方面，观察"站上年线的个股占比"这 一指标，目前仍处高位但未出现"指数创新高而广度回落"的典型背离信号，这意味着当前上涨并非由少 数权重股单独拉动，而是具备一定扩散性。深度方面，能量潮(OBV)等量能指标虽伴随指数上行而走 高，但尚未出现价格创新高、量能不再配合的背离格局，这与2007年和2015年牛顶时明显的量价错位不 同。换句话说，当前市场的上攻仍得到量能与广度的支撑，尚未出现"泡沫"的警示信号。 平安证券认为，十一假期前资金博弈放大市场波动，但主要指数仍维持在 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that liquidity tends to contract before the National Day holiday, but this is often a result of "emotional shrinkage" rather than fundamental issues [1] - Historically, the market tends to experience a "post-holiday rally," with sustained gains during bull markets, especially when long holidays coincide with positive events [1] - Recent market focus has shifted towards domestic policies and structural industry prosperity, with less attention on US-China relations, which have shown signs of improvement since September and may be gradually priced in by the market in Q4 [1] Market Trends - After concentrated trading in the computing power sector, market funds are gradually shifting towards other low-position growth sectors, suggesting a continuation of a slow bull market in the medium term [1] - In the context of a macroeconomic environment that has not fully recovered, new sectors with structural prosperity are expected to be key determinants of investment success [1] Key Sectors to Watch - The report highlights several sectors with concentrated catalytic events that are worth monitoring: semiconductors, new energy, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals [1]