哈喽，大家好，今天小睿这篇评论，主要来分析人民币破7背后，美国三年收割计划如何破产，中国又 靠哪三张底牌成功反击。 2025年圣诞节，全球金融市场见证了一个历史性时刻。12月25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率强势突破7.0 整数关口，最高触及6.9985，在岸人民币也同步突破7.01关口，创下2024年9月以来的新高。 距离4月份7.40的低点，仅仅过去了8个月。这种V型反转如果只是简单的市场波动，那就太小看这场持 续三年的金融博弈了。 美联储降息引爆结汇潮 2025年12月，美联储在经历了漫长的加息周期后，终于开启了降息通道，市场预期2026年还将有两次降 息。这一动作直接抽走了支撑强势美元的基石，美元指数应声跌破100大关，跌幅逼近10%。 但真正推动人民币年底上演"逼空"大戏的，是中国外贸企业积压已久的"结汇潮"。在过去三年人民币贬 值的预期下，大量出口企业选择了"藏汇于民"，将赚来的美元留在账上，博取美元的高利息和升值收 益。这形成了一个巨大的"堰塞湖"。 第一张底牌是资本账户的防火墙。中国一直保持着对资本账户的审慎管理。这就像是在金融风暴中修筑 的高墙，使得国际游资无法像在泰国或阿根廷那样随意进出，进行大 ...

以下文章来源于格隆 ，作者万连山 格隆 . 一个游走于资本市场与佛祖之间的浪子。我可以生，可以死，我大笑，由天决定！ 本文来自微信公众号： 格隆 ，作者：万连山 越南的改革正如火如荼，热钱不断涌入，国民收入不断提高，一派欣欣向荣…… 但某些领域，繁荣得有些过头了。 目前，河内公寓每平方米已超过8000万越南盾，折合人民币2.1万元，已经和中国最强地级市苏州城 区一个水平。 而越南人均GDP不到5000美元，只相当于2010年的中国，当时上海的房价也不过如此。 一个刚刚起步的发展中国家，房价却飙升到了发达国家水平。 这种离奇的剧情，我们经历过。 但越南楼市的故事，与我们的经历，并不太一样。 01 廉价货币毒瘾与土地枷锁 越南国家银行（SBV）印钞机的转速，远比房价更夸张。 2008-2025年，越南基准利率从15%降至4.5%的历史低位，这波持续十余年的降息潮，本质上是以货 币宽松换经济增长的赌博。 这些货币的本意是流向制造业，去生产鞋子、手机出口。 但现实极其骨感：全球需求疲软，工厂订单不足，企业根本不敢扩产。 于是，被释放出来的巨额流动性，在实体经济里转了一圈，发现无处可去，最终全部涌向了资产市 场。 与此 ...

在很多人看来，有房有车才是成功人士的标配。所以，不少人只要收入稍微稳定一些，就会选择买房买车。不过，多数人在买了房子和车子之后，表面看上 去是风光无限，人生已经很圆满。但却面临着每个月收入的很大一部分都要偿还房贷和车贷，剩下的可支配收入，只够维持日常基本生活，日子过得紧巴 巴。 而面对当前房地产和汽车市场形势，有业内人士表示：未来5年，房子和车子都会贬值，真正值钱的，只剩下"这2样"东西。让我们一起来分析一下： 第一，未来5年房子会继续贬值 从以上的分析我们可以看出，未来5年房子和汽车会越来越不值钱。而未来只有"这2样"才是真正值钱的东西，大家应该提前为此做好布局。 1、健康的身体 导致国内房价持续下行的原因有三个：①国内房地产仍有较大的泡沫，像二三线城市房价与收入之比是20-25，一线城市的房价与收入之比是40。这意味 着，当地老百姓不吃喝几十年才能买上一套房子。未来5年，房地产泡沫一定会被挤掉。 ②中国已经进入到老龄化社会，老年人数量超过3亿人，未来刚性购房需求越来越少。③国内房子已经过剩。现在国内有6亿栋房子，如果每栋房子住5个 人，足够30亿人居住。所以，国内房子供大于求将长期存在，房价下行的压力会比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in "bank direct supply housing" listings has become a significant trend in the real estate market, with banks selling properties at prices significantly lower than market rates, indicating a shift in the market dynamics and potential implications for the housing bubble [1][6]. Group 1: Bank's Role in Real Estate - Banks are increasingly acting as major players in the real estate market, with numerous banks listing thousands of properties for sale, effectively becoming the largest "second-hand housing intermediaries" in the country [1][6]. - The properties sold by banks have clear ownership, reducing transaction risks compared to auctioned properties, which often come with various complications [3]. - The motivation for banks to sell properties directly stems from the overwhelming number of foreclosed properties that are difficult to process through traditional auction methods, necessitating a faster asset clearance to reduce bad debts [3][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Implications - The trend of banks selling properties is expected to escalate, potentially spreading from smaller cities to larger urban areas, which could lead to a downward pressure on housing prices and a tightening of credit [6][9]. - The pricing strategies employed by banks are pragmatic, focusing on recovering debts rather than maximizing profits, which could lead to a significant reduction in local property market prices and a shift towards more realistic valuations [9][12]. - The phenomenon of banks offloading properties signals a deterioration in asset quality within the financial system, reflecting the adverse effects of speculative behavior in the real estate market [6][9]. Group 3: Impact on Speculation and Housing Demand - The influx of "direct supply housing" is pushing speculative investors out of the market, as many of the properties being sold were previously owned by investors who leveraged high debt during price surges [7][9]. - The financial attributes of real estate are diminishing, with a return to its fundamental purpose of providing housing, as banks prioritize quick sales to recover funds [9][12]. - The current market conditions are reshaping buyer expectations, moving away from the belief that prices will only rise, which aligns with the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy [9][12]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The ongoing sale of properties by banks highlights the need for a stable demand foundation from genuine homebuyers to prevent further price declines and potential financial risks [12][13]. - The successful implementation of the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy requires the establishment of long-term mechanisms, such as a robust rental market and housing tax systems, which are still in development [12][13]. - The current market situation can be viewed as a necessary cleansing process, but the long-term health of the market will depend on its ability to stabilize and create a sustainable cycle [13].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment presents a dilemma for individuals with substantial funds, weighing the choice between investing in real estate or keeping money in the bank, especially given the recent downturn in the real estate market and declining bank deposit rates [1][4]. Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market in China has shown signs of significant adjustment since 2023, with a 23.3% year-on-year decrease in the sales area of commercial housing from January to November, totaling approximately 1.212 billion square meters, and a 26.6% decline in sales revenue, amounting to about 11.86 trillion yuan [1]. - Among 70 major cities, 69 have experienced a drop in second-hand housing prices, indicating a widespread downturn in the market [1]. Bank Deposit Trends - Bank deposit rates have been on a downward trend, with three-year deposit rates falling below 3% and one-year rates dropping below 2%, marking historical lows and suggesting a continued decline in deposit yields [2]. - The total amount of deposits in China surged by 22.48 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, with household deposits increasing by 14.42 trillion yuan, reflecting a strong inclination towards saving [1]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Given the current high property prices, it is challenging to make a down payment in first and second-tier cities, and opting for a mortgage could lead to significant financial pressure, especially in the event of income loss [6][9]. - The prevailing market trend indicates that investing in real estate may not be wise, as property values are in a downward trajectory, making bank deposits a safer option [8]. - The real estate market is perceived to have substantial bubbles, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, where the price-to-income ratios are exceedingly high, suggesting that waiting for a market correction before purchasing property could lead to lower costs [8][9].

Economic Overview - Japan is experiencing a significant rise in prices, leading to increased public concern about the cost of living [2][5] - The Bank of Japan is considering raising interest rates if economic activity and inflation trends align with expectations, with core CPI forecasts for fiscal years 2025-2027 remaining stable at 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0% respectively [2][3] Inflation Impact - The core consumer price index (CPI) in Japan has risen for 48 consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of over 3% for seven months from January to July this year [2][6] - The rising cost of living, including essential goods and housing, is putting significant pressure on Japanese households, with average rent as a percentage of income increasing by 1% to 5% [3][10] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate prices in major cities like Tokyo and Osaka have surged, with new residential prices in Tokyo's 23 wards averaging 133.09 million yen (approximately 6.25 million RMB), a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [10][12] - Foreign investment in Japan's real estate market is on the rise, accounting for 34% of total investment, with a total investment amount exceeding 1 trillion yen [12][15] Consumer Behavior - The rising prices are leading to a decrease in purchasing power, with real wages in Japan declining for eight consecutive months, indicating that nominal wage increases are not keeping pace with inflation [7][8] - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior towards saving and reducing discretionary spending due to the ongoing inflation [8][11] Long-term Concerns - The Japanese real estate market is facing potential overheating risks, with concerns about speculative trading not based on actual demand [17] - Long-term demographic trends, such as population decline and low interest in homeownership among younger generations, may constrain future real estate demand [17]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a significant shift, with contrasting perspectives on whether to invest in property or focus on savings amid changing financial conditions [4][6]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The Chinese financial market in 2024 is characterized by government policies aimed at stimulating the housing market, including lower mortgage rates, with some regions seeing rates as low as 3.6% [3]. - Concurrently, deposit rates are declining, with three-year deposit rates falling below 3% and one-year rates dipping below 2%, indicating a historical low for savings [3]. Group 2: Investment vs. Savings Debate - There are two opposing views regarding investment in real estate versus saving: one side advocates for purchasing property due to favorable loan conditions, while the other warns of a long-standing real estate bubble and suggests saving until prices stabilize [4][6]. - For families with essential housing needs, purchasing a home may be a wise decision given current policies, while those looking to invest should consider saving instead [6]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market in China is facing significant challenges, with a notable accumulation of price bubbles; in second-tier cities, families may need to save for 25 years to afford a home, and in first-tier cities, this figure exceeds 40 years [7]. - There is a belief that the high property price bubble may gradually be deflated over the next five years, leading to a more rational pricing environment [8]. - The current oversupply of housing is evident, with approximately 600 million buildings in China, indicating a shift towards a buyer's market as investment demand diminishes [10][12]. Group 4: Demographic Trends - The aging population in China is increasing, with 290 million individuals aged 60 and above, representing 21.1% of the total population, which may reduce future housing demand as most elderly individuals already own homes [12]. - Additionally, declining marriage rates among younger generations are expected to further decrease the demand for homes intended for newlyweds [12].

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with the second quarter also at 5.2% and the first quarter at 5.4%, demonstrating resilience amid global economic turmoil [1] - This growth occurred despite a 13.9% decline in national real estate development investment and a 5.5% decrease in the sales area of commercial housing [3] Real Estate Market Concerns - The divergence between economic growth and the downturn in the real estate market has raised concerns about a potential repeat of Japan's real estate bubble burst in the 1990s [3] - In September 2025, 64 out of 70 major cities saw new residential prices decline month-on-month, with first-tier cities experiencing a 1.0% drop in second-hand housing prices [5] Historical Comparisons - Compared to Japan's real estate bubble, where land prices fell over 40% after the bubble burst, China's average price decline is around 10% as of the end of 2023 [5][6] - Japan's urbanization rate was 77% at the time of its bubble burst, while China's current urbanization rate is approximately 66%, indicating room for growth [6] Housing Demand and Supply - China's urbanization process is expected to continue generating housing demand, as the urbanization rate for registered residents is still below 50% [6] - The average down payment ratio for Chinese homebuyers is over 34%, providing a buffer against negative equity, contrasting with Japan's lower down payment rates during its bubble [8] Policy Responses - China has implemented policies since 2024 to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios and adjusting mortgage rates, with a focus on promoting market recovery [8] - In contrast, Japan's government was slow to respond during its bubble period, leading to severe tightening measures that exacerbated the economic downturn [8] Market Dynamics - The real estate market in China shows significant differentiation, with cities like Shanghai experiencing price increases while some second and third-tier cities face declines [10][12] - The current housing supply in China is tight, with an average of 1.10 rooms per urban resident, compared to Japan's 1.52 rooms during its bubble period [12] Economic Structure - In 2025, real estate investment in China decreased by 13.9%, contributing negatively to economic growth, while consumption accounted for 53.5% of growth, indicating a more diversified economic structure [16] - The manufacturing sector in China is showing resilience, with high-tech manufacturing value-added increasing by 9.6% year-on-year [16] External Environment - China is facing a tense global trade environment but has seen a positive turnaround in export growth in the first three quarters of 2025 [16] - Unlike Japan's experience during its bubble burst, China's monetary policy remains autonomous and is set to be moderately accommodative in 2025 [19]

Group 1 - The Bank of Korea maintains the seven-day repurchase rate at 2.5%, signaling a cautious approach towards further easing despite previous rate cuts since October of the previous year [1][2] - The decision aligns with the expectations of 23 out of 25 surveyed economists, indicating a consensus on the current policy stance [1] - The central bank's forward guidance reflects increased concern for financial stability, with a shift from "5 support - 1 oppose" to "4 support - 2 oppose" among board members [1][3] Group 2 - The ongoing rise in the real estate market, with apartment prices in the capital area increasing for 37 consecutive weeks, raises concerns among policymakers [2][3] - The central bank is cautious about the potential for financial instability due to rising mortgage debt levels and the real estate market's performance [3] - Recent measures introduced by the government aim to cool the housing market, including tightening mortgage limits and expanding regulatory areas [3] Group 3 - Inflation remains close to the central bank's target of 2%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% in September, suggesting some room for easing if conditions allow [4] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on key exports, particularly in the automotive sector, is being closely monitored, with estimates indicating a potential drag on economic growth [4] - The Bank of Korea has adjusted its growth forecast for the year from 0.8% to 0.9%, reflecting a cautious outlook amid external pressures [4] Group 4 - The central bank is also attentive to the Federal Reserve's actions, as any divergence in policy trajectories could lead to currency fluctuations [5][6] - Concerns regarding exchange rate volatility have increased, with some board members indicating that sustained fluctuations may hinder the ability to pursue further easing [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential existence of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, with OpenAI being a significant player in this phenomenon, both as a driver and a beneficiary of the bubble [2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context of Bubbles - The author reflects on past bubbles, including the internet bubble of the late 1990s, the real estate bubble, and the cryptocurrency bubble during the pandemic, highlighting the common characteristics of these bubbles [4][5]. - Each bubble was marked by widespread public enthusiasm and investment, with people discussing their experiences and investments in these sectors, creating a palpable sense of excitement [5][6]. Group 2: Current AI Landscape - Currently, AI has become a central topic of conversation, but the sense of a bubble is not as pervasive as in previous instances, as it seems confined to specific industries or circles [6][9]. - Unlike past bubbles where a significant portion of the population was directly involved in investments, the AI sector appears to be dominated by a few large tech companies, limiting broader public engagement [9][10]. - Major tech firms like Nvidia and Microsoft have driven recent market gains, with a small number of stocks holding substantial weight in the S&P index, indicating that most Americans are indirectly exposed to AI assets through retirement accounts [10]. Group 3: Perception of the AI Bubble - While there are signs of an AI bubble, characterized by massive spending and unrealistic expectations, this bubble feeling seems to be more prevalent in corporate boardrooms than in the daily lives of ordinary people [10][11]. - The article raises the question of whether the general public would feel the impact if the AI bubble were to burst, suggesting a disconnect between corporate investment and everyday experiences [11].