本期视频，从短中长期三个方面，聊聊销量、财报和品牌，分别体现蔚来的产品力、组织力和护城河。 ...

逆向思维，一位智者的逆向人生与永恒投资哲学。 01 一位来自奥马哈的普通青年人 1924 年，查理·芒格出生在美国内布拉斯加州奥马哈市一个普通家庭。17 岁考入密歇根大学读数学，二战爆发后应征入伍，服役期间被派往气象学校，系统学习理 工科思维。战争结束，他靠 GI 法案进入加州理工学院，随后又以无大学文凭之身份破格被哈佛法学院录取，1948 年以优异成绩毕业，成为一名律师。 芒格早年在洛杉矶执业，却深感"用时间换钱"的天花板太低。于是，他在 30 岁出头开始同步涉足地产开发，以 10 万美元本金撬动百万利润，完成原始积累。35 岁那年，一场失败的婚姻与长子白血病的双重打击几乎将他拖入深渊，但他用理性与阅读自我疗愈，并坚定转向投资赛道，成立惠勒·芒格合伙公司，十年年化收 益跑赢道指 18 个百分点，为日后与巴菲特并肩作战奠定基石。 02 查理芒格与巴菲特相遇 1959 年 5 月，35 岁的芒格返回家乡奥马哈料理父亲后事，被共同好友安排与 29 岁的沃伦·巴菲特共进晚餐。两人从股票聊到商业、从阅读到人生，惊觉"灵魂频 率"完全一致，遂成莫逆。巴菲特戏称那晚"找到了失联多年的兄长"，芒格则说"沃伦让我笑到肚子疼" ...

Core Concept - The article presents a comprehensive framework for industry research, focusing on the industry lifecycle, business models, market size, and competitive landscape, providing investors with essential tools for informed decision-making [2][4][21] Industry Lifecycle - Industries can be categorized into four stages based on revenue: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline, reflecting changes in customer demographics and market dynamics [4][5] - The introduction phase features innovative products with uncertain market potential, while the growth phase sees an increase in user adoption and revenue [4][5] - In the maturity phase, revenue growth slows as new customer acquisition diminishes, leading to increased competition and potential market share consolidation [5][6] - The decline phase is characterized by stagnant user growth and the emergence of substitutes, where only companies with significant scale or cost advantages can maintain competitiveness [5][6] Research Focus by Lifecycle Stage - In the introduction phase, the primary concern is the feasibility of the business model, assessing real demand and sustainable profitability [7][10] - For the growth phase, the focus shifts to estimating market size and potential growth over the next 3-5 years to ensure sufficient growth opportunities [7][14] - In the maturity phase, evaluating the industry's competitive advantages and potential for new market opportunities becomes crucial [8][15] - During the decline phase, research should pivot towards substitutes and alternative investment opportunities [8][19] Market Size and Concentration - Market size is typically measured by sales revenue, with larger markets being essential for the emergence of significant companies [13][14] - Different market size metrics are relevant at various lifecycle stages: Total Addressable Market (TAM) in the introduction phase, Serviceable Available Market (SAM) and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) in the growth and maturity phases [13][14] - Industry concentration levels impact profitability, with higher concentration often leading to better profit margins [20] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is critical in determining future profitability, with horizontal competition (among peers) and vertical relationships (upstream and downstream) both influencing market dynamics [19][20] - Understanding market share and industry concentration helps gauge profitability potential, with high concentration indicating better profit prospects [20] - The ability to maintain a competitive edge through unique advantages, such as brand strength or cost leadership, is vital for long-term success [15][16]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy of Duan Yongping, highlighting his long-term approach to investing, which contrasts with the pursuit of quick profits [4][5][12] - Duan Yongping's investment principles include avoiding short selling, not borrowing money for investments, and only investing in companies that are well understood [6][8][12] Investment Philosophy - Duan Yongping believes that investing is akin to farming, requiring patience and a focus on long-term value rather than short-term gains [5][10] - He stresses the importance of understanding a company's future cash flows, which should guide investment decisions [5][9] Key Principles - The "不可为" (things not to do) list includes three main principles: do not short sell, do not borrow money, and do not invest in what is not understood [6][8][12] - Duan Yongping shares a personal experience of losing approximately $200 million from short selling Baidu, which he describes as a foolish act due to market unpredictability [7] Understanding Companies - A good company is characterized by a strong business model and a positive corporate culture, which together create a competitive advantage or "moat" [10][12] - The article discusses the distinction between core technology and core competitiveness, emphasizing that true value lies in the user experience rather than the technology itself [10] Valuation and Analysis - Valuation is described as an art that requires time and understanding of a company, rather than relying solely on historical metrics like price-to-earnings ratios [9][12] - Duan Yongping advocates for qualitative analysis over quantitative analysis, as the former is crucial for identifying truly profitable companies [9][12] Corporate Culture - The article highlights the importance of corporate culture, which should prioritize consumer needs over short-term profits, as exemplified by Apple's approach to product development [12][13] - Companies that focus on doing the right thing and maintaining a long-term vision are more likely to succeed sustainably [13]

很多人做生意，一遇到竞争对手，第一反应就是：降价！ 但你去看看，真正能赚大钱的企业，从来不是靠打价格战赢天下的。相反，他们的秘诀是——不断提 价，还能让客户心甘情愿买单。 为什么？因为能提价，才说明你有"护城河"。 降价是死路，提价才是活路 价格战，看似能抢一波客户，但结果是啥？ 你辛苦干活，利润薄得像纸； 对手一跟，你就没优势了； 客户还会觉得你廉价，越便宜越怀疑产品的品质。 而能提价的生意，说明你不靠拼命压成本，而是靠价值、品牌和独特性。 为什么能提价的生意才有护城河？ 护城河是巴菲特提出的概念，意思是：别人一时半会模仿不了你。 举几个简单的例子： 一句话：能提价，才代表你真正掌控了市场。 能提价的背后，往往代表着你拥有了客户的心智，形成了别人打不垮的优势。 星巴克：一杯咖啡成本几块钱，卖三四十，还天天排队。为什么？它卖的不是咖啡，是"生活方 式"。 苹果：同样是手机，为什么它敢比同行贵一倍？因为它有独特的生态和粉丝黏性。 茅台：白酒市场那么多品牌，为什么茅台越卖越贵？因为它的稀缺性和"身份标签"。 如何打造提价的底气？ 提价不是拍脑袋，要有逻辑。核心有三点： 第一，做出差异化。 你必须跟别人不一样，不然 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market is undergoing a significant reshuffle, with predictions that only 5-8 brands will survive in the future, including established players like Tesla and BYD [1][2][21] - The concept of a "moat" is crucial for companies to maintain competitive advantages, which can include brand strength, technological superiority, and cost advantages [3][4][8] - The current intense competition in the EV sector is attributed to the diminishing moats, allowing new entrants to compete more effectively with established brands [4][6] Group 2 - Tesla is highlighted as the market leader with several advantages, including technological leadership in Full Self-Driving (FSD), cost control, and a strong brand image [10][11][16] - Despite Tesla's technological edge, it is noted that this advantage may not be sustainable in the long term due to increasing competition from other manufacturers [12][15] - Tesla's cost control strategy has allowed it to reduce production costs significantly, with the Model Y's production cost dropping by 30% from 2020 to 2023, enabling it to engage in price wars effectively [16][17] Group 3 - BYD is recognized for its supply chain advantages and scale, which have allowed it to achieve the lowest costs in the industry, with a market share of 33.2% in 2024 [22][29][26] - BYD's extensive control over its supply chain, from raw materials to battery production, contributes to its competitive edge [24][22] - However, BYD's heavy asset base poses risks, as maintaining such a structure requires substantial ongoing investment [30][33] Group 4 - New entrants like Huawei and Xiaomi are adopting different strategies, with Huawei focusing on a light-asset model that provides technology without heavy investment in manufacturing [36][40][42] - Xiaomi's approach leverages its existing brand trust from the smartphone market to penetrate the automotive sector, achieving remarkable sales figures [50][56][58] - The new forces in the EV market, including NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto, are still developing their moats, with varying degrees of success in establishing competitive advantages [63][68]

Group 1 - The access control industry has significant pricing power and premium margins, with a consolidated market structure limiting new entrants [1] - There are primarily two major players in North America capable of providing a comprehensive suite of products for building outfitting, which contributes to the industry's high configuration and specification requirements [1] - The company influences demand by engaging with architects and end-users, which helps in creating a sticky installed base and strong customer relationships [2] Group 2 - The sticky end-user relationships established through demand creation provide the company with pricing power and the ability to maintain long-term customer relationships [2]

Core Viewpoint - The fund's top ten holdings are concentrated in four industries: chips, aviation, chemicals, and liquor, with over 70% of the portfolio in these holdings, which is not considered overly concentrated compared to historical levels [3][4] Group 1: Industry Concentration and Analysis - The perception of concentration in only four industries is a misunderstanding, as the classification of certain stocks by market software may not accurately reflect their business relevance [3] - The chemical sector is broad, and the top holdings within this sector have low correlation in terms of revenue and profit drivers, indicating that the portfolio's concentration is not as significant as it appears [4] Group 2: Economic Cycle and Investment Strategy - The fund has historically not held "non-cyclical" stocks, as the investment strategy is based on a long-term optimistic view of the Chinese economy [5][6] - The need for strong macroeconomic analysis depends on the investment approach; the fund's strategy is based on bottom-up assessments of company value rather than macroeconomic cycles [6] Group 3: Correlation and Stock Selection - The fund aims to avoid business-level correlations rather than macroeconomic correlations, as most industries are inherently linked to macroeconomic cycles [7] - Statistical correlation is unavoidable, and the focus is on avoiding causal relationships that directly impact stock performance [8] Group 4: Competitive Landscape in Specific Industries - In the high-end liquor industry, it is rare for three companies to possess strong competitive advantages simultaneously, as competition is often based on brand differentiation rather than market share [10][12] - High-end liquor companies maintain their competitive edge by controlling supply and pricing, which is crucial for preserving brand value [12][27] Group 5: Current Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The current low ticket prices in the aviation sector are attributed to aggressive competition and a decline in consumer purchasing power, which is expected to be a cyclical issue rather than a long-term trend [20][19] - The outlook for the high-end liquor market remains cautious, with expectations of potential declines in sales during peak seasons due to reduced consumer spending [26]

Group 1 - The core investment principle is to focus on risk rather than potential returns, emphasizing the importance of understanding one's own investment capabilities [1] - Successful investors, like Warren Buffett, have historically avoided the temptation of emerging trends while still achieving significant long-term returns [1] - The market teaches humility, as even aggressive investors can learn the value of long-term deep value investing [2][3] Group 2 - Chris Horn, the head of TCI, emphasizes the importance of assessing whether a company will exist in 30 years before investing, highlighting the rarity of companies with long-term compounding capabilities [3] - Only about 5% of companies possess strong pricing power, high barriers to entry, and stable governance, making them suitable for long-term investment [3][4] - Many investors underestimate the impact of competition and disruption, often focusing on short-term gains rather than long-term profitability [3][5] Group 3 - Emerging industries face significant challenges, including the difficulty of identifying future winners among many competitors [5][6] - Buffett's investment strategy has focused on traditional industries, achieving a success-to-failure ratio close to 100:1, despite occasional setbacks [6] - New industries often rely on technological advantages that can be quickly replicated by competitors, leading to diminished returns over time [6][7] Group 4 - The strength of a company's competitive moat is difficult to ascertain without the test of time, as many perceived advantages can erode [7] - Value investors seek companies with monopolistic characteristics, wide moats, and strong pricing power, but most moats are not as robust as believed [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on risk rather than chasing potential high returns in investment, highlighting that missing out on emerging trends is not a mistake if it exceeds one's capability circle [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Principles - The principle of "better to miss than to make a mistake" is crucial in investment, as chasing hot concepts can lead to significant misjudgments [1][2]. - Successful investors, like Warren Buffett, have historically focused on traditional industries and have achieved substantial returns despite missing out on trends like the internet and electric vehicles [2][6]. - The article suggests that the best investment opportunities are those with long-term viability and clear profit models, which are often found in established companies rather than in rapidly changing sectors [4][5]. Group 2: Challenges in Emerging Industries - Emerging industries present three main challenges: uncertainty in identifying future winners, the rapid pace of technological advancement, and the difficulty in assessing the strength of competitive advantages [6][7]. - Investors often struggle to predict which companies will dominate in new sectors, as many successful companies today were not easily identifiable as winners in their early stages [6][7]. - The article warns that many new companies may experience growth without profitability, emphasizing the need for caution in investing in sectors with intense competition and low margins [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Viability and Competitive Advantage - Companies that can sustain their operations for 30 years are rare, and only about 5% possess the characteristics needed for long-term compounding returns, such as strong pricing power and a robust competitive moat [4][6]. - The article highlights that many investors underestimate the impact of competition and disruption, which can erode profits and threaten the existence of companies lacking a solid competitive edge [5][6]. - It is noted that without a proven track record, it is challenging to ascertain the durability of a company's competitive advantages, making it essential for investors to focus on firms that have weathered multiple economic cycles [7][8].