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中国期货每日简报-20250822
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 03:25
Investment consulting business qualification:CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/08/22 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No:F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.:Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform:https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: The ASA has called on Trump to reach an agreement with China. Futures Pric ...
建信期货铁矿石日评-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:53
Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 18, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 772.0 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. Although the US steel and aluminum tariff expansion has a negative impact on market sentiment, considering that steel mills maintain high production to support the ore price and there is no obvious restorative growth in overseas shipments in the short term, the ore price still has some support in the short term. However, it is necessary to observe whether the actual impact of production cuts in the Tangshan area will have a negative impact on the fundamentals [7][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: On August 18, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 fluctuated weakly. The opening price was 777 yuan/ton, the highest price was 784 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 766.5 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 772 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The main iron ore outer - disk quotes were down 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were down 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline, and the green column of the MACD indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract had been enlarged for two consecutive trading days [7][9] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the weekly shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the total shipment volume in the past four weeks decreased by 6.2% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the subsequent arrival volume may fluctuate at a moderately low level. On the demand side, the downstream steel demand is still in a seasonal decline, and the inventory is accumulating rapidly. However, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is still relatively strong, and the molten iron output rebounded after three consecutive weeks of decline, remaining at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons, which strongly supports the ore price [11] - **News Impact**: On August 15, 2025, the US Department of Commerce announced that 407 imported steel and aluminum derivative products would be included in the scope of the 232 - clause tariff of 50%. The effective time starts at 12:01 am on August 18, 2025, Eastern Time in the US. On August 9, Tangshan issued a notice requiring independent steel rolling enterprises to stop production at any time according to the meteorological conditions from August 16 to 25 and to stop production from August 25 to September 3. It is estimated that the production restrictions in Tangshan will affect the daily output of about 90,000 tons of 35 billet - rolled section steel enterprises. If the production cuts are strictly implemented, it may have a negative impact on the fundamentals [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - On August 14, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam issued Announcement No. 2310/QD - BCT, making a positive anti - dumping final ruling on carbon and alloy steel coated sheets and coils originating from China and South Korea, and decided to impose anti - dumping duties on the涉案 products. The tax rate for China is 0 - 37.13%, and for South Korea is 0 - 15.67%. The measures are effective from the date of the announcement and are valid for five years [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipping volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volume of iron ore at main ports, the inventory available days of iron ore in steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered ore powder, the inventory and port clearance volume of iron ore at ports, the tax - free molten iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average molten iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the inventory of five major steel products in steel mills [14][19][22]
建信期货MEG日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:50
Report Information - Report Title: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 18th, the main contract 2509 of ethylene glycol futures opened at 4383, with a high of 4383, a low of 4340, a settlement price of 4353, and a closing price of 4346, down 28 from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 91,926 lots, and the open interest was 128,989 lots [7]. - The current supply - demand structure is weak, and there is insufficient incremental support from the macro - level. It is expected that ethylene glycol may maintain a weak trend in the short term [7]. Industry News - Traders were cautious ahead of the meeting between Trump and Putin to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and crude oil futures gave up most of the previous day's gains. On Friday (August 15), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.80 per barrel, down $1.16 or 1.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.68 - $64.15. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.85 per barrel, down $0.99 or 1.48% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.73 - $67.06 [8]. - The spot negotiation price of the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market this week was 4436 - 4437 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation price for late August was 4436 - 4437 yuan/ton, and for late September was 4433 - 4435 yuan/ton. This week, the spot basis was at a premium of 90 - 91 yuan/ton over EG2509, the basis for late August cargo was at a premium of 90 - 91 yuan/ton over EG2509, and the basis for late September was at a premium of 87 - 89 yuan/ton over EG2509 [8]. - The prices of short - fiber factories were relatively stable, while the prices of traders increased slightly. Due to cost push, downstream demand was weak, and the on - site trading volume was scarce. The mainstream sales - to - production ratio of factories was 40.41% [8]. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including MEG futures prices, futures - spot price differences, international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, raw material price indices (ethylene), PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][15]
建信期货PTA日报-20250815
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:03
行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 15 日 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:期货行情 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌 | 总量 | 增减 | | TA2509 | 4640 | -66 | 342285 | -62460 | | TA2601 | 4666 | -74 | 527922 | 123308 | 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0309492 ...
建信期货PTA日报-20250812
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:00
Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 11th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,706 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.38%, with a settlement price of 4,708 yuan/ton and a daily reduction of 19,038 lots. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,732 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 253,884 lots, an increase of 21,317 lots [6]. - **Analysis**: Despite a slight decline in crude oil prices, the PTA market has maintenance expectations, and low processing fees support the spot market. Mixed long - and short - term news has led to a consolidating market [6]. Industry News - **Crude Oil**: European and American crude oil futures ended a six - day decline. Brent crude futures closed slightly higher, while WTI crude futures closed flat but had a significant weekly net decline. The September 2025 WTI crude futures settled at $63.88 per barrel, and the October 2025 Brent crude futures settled at $66.59 per barrel, up $0.16 or 0.24% [7]. - **PX Market**: The assessed price of the PX market in China was $833 - 835/ton, up $2/ton from the previous day; in South Korea, it was $813 - 815/ton, also up $2/ton [7]. - **PTA Market**: A PX and PTA plant in Shandong is restarting. The PTA price in the East China market was 4,698 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 11 yuan/ton to the 2509 futures contract, up 6 yuan/ton [7]. Data Overview - The report includes data on international crude oil futures closing prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA futures prices, basis, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories [11][13][17]
建信期货PTA日报-20250811
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 03:08
Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated August 11, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers such as Li Jie (crude oil and fuel), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (urea, industrial silicon), Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), Liu Youran (pulp), and Feng Zeren (glass and soda ash) [3] 3. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 8th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,684 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton or 0.51%, with a settlement price of 4,688 yuan/ton and a daily reduction of 32,353 lots. The closing price of TA2601 was 4,704 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 205,367 lots, an increase of 37,845 lots [5] - With the weak crude oil market and the possible continued sales by the main PTA suppliers, along with unconfirmed rumors of maintenance of some PTA plants in the Northeast, the PTA market is expected to decline slightly [5] 4. Industry News - Due to uncertainties surrounding US tariffs, sanctions against Russia, and OPEC+ production increases, European and American crude oil futures fell for the sixth consecutive trading day. On Thursday (August 7), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the NYMEX was $63.88 per barrel, down $0.47 or 0.73%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the ICE was $66.43 per barrel, down $0.46 or 0.69% [6] - The assessed price of PX in the Chinese market was $831 - 833 per ton, down $8 per ton from the previous trading day, and in the South Korean market, it was $811 - 813 per ton, also down $8 per ton. There was one transaction of any October shipment at $829 per ton [6] - The cost - end oil price is still in a downward channel. There are expectations of partial restart of domestic PX plants, while the possibility of an expansion in PTA production cuts on the demand side has increased the bearish sentiment in the market [6] - The PTA price in the East China market was 4,998 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was a discount of 52 yuan/ton compared to the futures contract 2505, up 12 yuan/ton [6] 5. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts including international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA prices, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][18]
建信期货PTA日报-20250807
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:44
1. Report Information - Report Title: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: On the 6th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,724 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton (0.98%), with a settlement price of 4,702 yuan/ton and a daily reduction of 47,883 lots. The closing price of TA2601 was 4,754 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 275,150 lots, an increase of 47,001 lots [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the spot supply of PTA is sufficient, the crude oil market rebounded during the session, and there may be unplanned PTA plant maintenance under low processing fees. It is expected that the PTA market will rise slightly [6]. 3. Industry News - **Crude Oil**: The market focused on the production - cut plan of OPEC and its allies and downplayed the threat of US sanctions on oil buyers from a certain European country. European and American crude oil futures fell for four consecutive trading days. On August 5th, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.16 per barrel, down $1.13 (1.70%); the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.64 per barrel, down $1.12 (1.63%) [7]. - **PX Market**: The price of the PX market in China was estimated at $843 - 845 per ton, up $5 per ton from the previous trading day; the price in the South Korean market was estimated at $823 - 825 per ton, also up $5 per ton. The cost - side oil price continued to run strongly. The domestic PX supply level was low, the demand side was performing well, and the buying enthusiasm in the market recovered. Two transactions were heard during the day, with any September cargoes traded at $848 and $849 per ton respectively [7]. - **PTA Market in East China**: The price of PTA in the East China market was 4,682 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures contract 2509, down 6 yuan/ton [7]. 4. Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA price summaries, basis between futures and spot prices, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipt quantities, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][17]
建信期货MEG日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:43
Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: August 06, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is weak overall, and with the weakening of macro - positive support, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to continue its weak trend in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The closing price of EG2509 was 4399 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the closing price of EG2601 was 4426 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract EG2509 was 104,974 lots, and the open interest was 224,036 lots, a decrease of 8500 lots. The open interest of EG2601 was 45,563 lots, an increase of 5251 lots [7] 2. Industry News - Oil Price: OPEC and its eight - nation production - limiting alliance agreed to further increase production significantly in September. International oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. On August 4, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 was $66.29 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.54%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 was $68.76 per barrel, down $0.91 or 1.31% [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot negotiation price this week was 4475 - 4477 yuan/ton, up 18.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The basis of this week's spot was at a premium of 76 - 78 yuan/ton compared to EG2509 [8] - Industry Start - up: PX and ethylene glycol started stably. Affected by the full - load operation of the Ningbo PTA plant, the PTA start - up rate increased by 1.23 percentage points. Affected by the restart of the polyester staple fiber plant, the polyester start - up rate increased by 0.94 percentage points [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, etc. The data sources are Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [10][15][16]
【早间看点】路透预计马棕7月库存为225万吨USDA美豆当周优良率为69%符合预期-20250805
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 09:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking for commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products. Specific Summaries by Section Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 10 was 4,218.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.39% and an overnight decline of 0.76% [1]. - Brent 10 (ICE) closed at 68.68, with a previous - day decline of 1.21% and an overnight decline of 0.85% [1]. - NYMEX US crude oil 09 closed at 66.24, with a previous - day decline of 1.52% and an overnight decline of 0.94% [1]. - CBOT US soybeans 11 closed at 994.50, with a previous - day increase of 0.66% and an overnight decline of 0.13% [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8,920, with a basis of 120 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 8,330, with a basis of 80 and a basis decline of 2 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 2,900, with a basis of - 118 and a basis decline of 9 from the previous day [2]. Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal temperature and precipitation from August 9 - 13 [4]. - The Midwest planting belt in the US will be mostly dry this week, with soil moisture remaining good. A front has passed, bringing cooler temperatures [6]. International Supply - Demand - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July 2025 is expected to be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June [8]. - As of June 30, 2025, 89.6% (5.03 million hectares) of Malaysia's oil palm plantations had MSPO certification [8]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of August 3, 2025, was 69%, in line with market expectations [10]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 4, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 33,150 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous trading day [14]. - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils in key regions in China was 2.3611 million tons, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 94.4% [17]. - The US factory orders in June decreased by 4.8% month - on - month, in line with expectations [17]. Domestic News - On August 4, 2025, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1395, up 101 points (appreciation of the RMB) [19]. - On August 4, 2025, the central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows On August 4, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 778 million yuan, with a net inflow of 2.6 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 1.822 billion yuan in stock index futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.
国富期货早间看点-20250804
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 12:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market on August 4, 2025, covering overnight and spot market quotes, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, capital flows, and arbitrage tracking. It focuses on the performance of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as international and domestic economic indicators. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil in October was 4,245.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.35%. Brent crude oil in October on ICE was at 69.52, a decrease of 3.15% the previous day and 0.20% overnight. NYMEX US crude oil in September was at 67.26, down 3.03% the previous day and 0.06% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 98.67, a decrease of 1.32%. The exchange rates of various currencies against the US dollar showed different trends, with the Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, and Singapore dollar appreciating, while the Argentine peso depreciated [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9,040, 8,910, and 8,900 respectively, with corresponding basis values of 120, - 10, and - 20, and basis changes of - 10, - 40, and 0 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8,300, 8,520, 8,460, and 8,390 respectively, with basis values and changes varying by region [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 2,890, 2,890, 2,870, and 2,970 respectively, with corresponding basis values and changes [2]. - The CNF quotes for imported soybeans from Brazil and Argentina were 474 and 452 dollars per ton respectively, with CNF premiums of 300 and 240 cents per bushel [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather in Production Areas**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - average temperatures from August 6 - 10, with more precipitation in the northwest and northeast. The weather in the US Midwest is currently favorable for corn and soybean growth, with occasional rainfall and temperature fluctuations [3][5]. - **International Supply and Demand**: In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 7.07% according to SPPOMA. Indonesia exported 2.07 million tons of crude palm oil and its products in June. There were also changes in the positions of various agricultural products futures, US soybean crushing volume, Canadian rapeseed exports, and Nigeria's plan to double soybean planting area by 2027 [9][10][11]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: On August 1, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 31% compared to the previous day. There were also changes in the trading volume and开机 rate of soybean meal, soybean crushing volume, Brazilian soybean shipping plans to China, pig - breeding profits, and agricultural product wholesale prices [14][15]. Macro - economic News - **International News**: US economic data in July showed mixed results, with lower - than - expected non - farm payrolls, slightly higher unemployment rate, and inflation expectations. The ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs also had different performances. There were discussions about OPEC+ production increases [18][20]. - **Domestic News**: On August 1, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The Chinese central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds on the day and a net injection for the week. Newly - issued government bond interest income will be subject to VAT starting from August 8 [22]. Capital Flows - On August 1, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.63 billion yuan, with 1.091 billion yuan from commodity futures (697 million yuan inflow in agricultural product futures, 140 million yuan inflow in chemical futures, 1.293 billion yuan outflow in black - series futures, and 635 million yuan outflow in metal futures) and 8.539 billion yuan from stock - index futures [25]. - The capital flows of major futures varieties varied, with inflows in some commodities like soybean oil and gold, and outflows in others such as crude oil and copper [24]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.