投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月25日08时15分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比上升 ，螺纹产量增加，整体库存继续回落，但热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期 ，库存的压力更大。由 于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正常季节性的减产规模 ，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格 也出现了走弱迹象，钢材成本支撑减弱。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，期价低位震荡，且震荡区间在收窄，在酝酿突破行情，需密切关注。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待回调后做多，中线交易。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3089 32 1.05% -8 -0.26% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3295 25 0.76% -7 -0.21% 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） 元/吨 3240 20 0.62% 20 0.62% 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 4.75mm，上海） 元/吨 3290 20 0.61% -20 -0.6 ...

1. Report Information - Report Type: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 17th, the closing price of PTA's main futures contract TA2601 was 4,692 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (0.42%), with a settlement price of 4,696 yuan/ton and a daily reduction of 6,523 lots. The TA2605 contract closed at 4,756 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 84,010 lots, an increase of 10,594 lots [6] - Market Outlook: Although PTA is theoretically in a de - stocking state, the decline in the crude oil market weakens cost support, and there is no tight supply in the PTA spot market. Therefore, the PTA market is expected to be weak [6] 3. Industry News - Crude Oil: Due to concerns about supply after a Ukrainian drone attack on an oil depot in a European country's energy center, international oil prices continued to rise. The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.09 per barrel, up $1.40 (2.39%), trading between $58.71 - $60.65. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.39 per barrel, up $1.38 (2.19%), trading between $63.36 - $64.87 [7] - PX Market: The price of PX in the Chinese market was estimated at $829 - 831/ton, down $1/ton; in the South Korean market, it was estimated at $809 - 811/ton, down $1/ton. There was one deal heard during the day, with any January cargo sold at $830/ton. The cost - side single - sided driving force is insufficient due to the fluctuating international oil prices, and the market is waiting to see the operation progress of a PX plant in South China, leading to increased long - short game sentiment [7] - PTA Market: The price of PTA in the East China market was 4,622 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 74 yuan/ton to the futures contract 2601, up 4 yuan/ton [7] 4. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA futures prices, basis differences, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and inventory [11][13][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on November 18, 2025, including the weak - side shock of stock index futures, the wide - range shock of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures, the weak - side shock of precious metal and base metal futures, and the strong - side shock of some energy and agricultural product futures [2][3]. - The report also provides macro - economic information and recent price trends of related commodities, which may have an impact on futures prices [8][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 are expected to have a weak - side shock on November 18, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2512 and thirty - year TL2512 are expected to have a wide - range shock on November 18, 2025, with corresponding resistance and support levels [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold (AU2512) and silver (AG2602) futures are expected to have a weak - side shock on November 18, 2025, and will test support levels [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper (CU2512), aluminum (AL2601), alumina (AO2601), and others are expected to have a weak - side shock on November 18, 2025, with support and resistance levels given [2][3]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil (SC2601) and fuel oil (FU2601) are expected to have a strong - side shock on November 18, 2025, and will attack resistance levels [3][5]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: PTA (TA601), natural rubber (RU2601), and bean meal (M2601) are expected to have a strong - side shock on November 18, 2025, while PVC (V2601) and methanol (MA601) are expected to have a weak - side shock [3][7]. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - China - Germany high - level financial and economic dialogue promotes financial infrastructure connectivity [8]. - China protests against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan, and Premier Li Qiang has no arrangement to meet Japanese leaders during the G20 Summit [8]. - From January to October this year, China's national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% [8]. - In October, the bank settlement and sales surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and cross - border capital inflows increased [9]. - China conducts a final review of anti - dumping and counter -vailing measures on imported n - propanol from the US [9]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts and economic trends [9]. - Japan's Q3 GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter - on - quarter, and the eurozone economy is expected to expand faster [10]. Commodity Futures Information - On November 17, most lithium carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit, and the price may break through 150,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton in 2026 if demand grows strongly [10]. - On November 17, international precious metal futures generally fell, and oil futures also declined, with institutions predicting lower oil prices in 2026 [11][12]. - Indonesia plans to impose an export tax on gold products, and India signs a long - term LPG purchase contract with the US [13]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On November 17, most stock index futures contracts showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [15][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On November 17, treasury bond futures closed higher, and the ten - year and thirty - year contracts are expected to have a wide - range shock on November 18 [36][40]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 17, gold and silver futures contracts declined, with increased short - term downward pressure, but are expected to have a strong - side wide - range shock in November [43][49]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On November 17, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure, and are expected to have a weak - side shock on November 18 [53][58]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On November 17, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2601 hit the daily limit, and is expected to have a strong - side shock in November [65][66]. - **Building Material Futures**: On November 17, glass and soda ash futures contracts showed a downward trend, and are expected to have a weak - side shock in November [89][93]. - **Energy Futures**: On November 17, crude oil and fuel oil futures contracts showed a downward trend, and are expected to have a strong - side shock on November 18 [98][103]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: On November 17, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures contracts showed a downward trend, while natural rubber and bean meal futures contracts showed an upward trend, and their trends on November 18 are predicted accordingly [104][111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery-grade 3.9-meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat at 755 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while in Jiangsu it decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 755 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9-meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged at 855 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 5.9-meter 30+ radiata pine decreased by 5 yuan/cubic meter to 780 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were still in short supply [4]. - As of November 9, there were 11 vessels departing from New Zealand in November, with 10 bound for mainland China and 1 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with partial unloading. It is expected that about 11 vessels will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.37 million cubic meters in November [5][8]. - As of the week of November 7, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 1,300 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 11,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 1,500 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.2658 million cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 5,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's was about 346,400 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 42,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou's was about 254,600 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 55,600 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's was about 214,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 15,300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0808 million cubic meters, an increase of 7,100 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. - As of the week of November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was recorded at 2,125 points, an increase of 21 points (+1.0%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was recorded at 819 points, an increase of 1.1% from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was recorded at 1,451.38 points, an increase of 3.6% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index has recently remained around 99 - 100. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was recorded at 7.098, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.0% to 1.759 [6][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of November 9, 11 vessels departed from New Zealand in November, with 10 going to mainland China and 1 to Taiwan, China and South Korea with partial unloading. It is expected that about 11 vessels will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.37 million cubic meters in November [5][8] - A table shows the detailed information of New Zealand log vessel schedules, including departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time [9] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 1,300 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 11,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 1,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports (Lanshan, Taicang, Xinminzhou, and Jiangdu) was 2.0808 million cubic meters, an increase of 7,100 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] - A table provides detailed inventory and shipment data of domestic main ports, including inventory and shipment volume at different time points and changes compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [13] 3.3 Market Trends - As of November 14, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 788.5 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 0.4% from the previous week. The main contract on the futures market rebounded this week, while the fundamental supply - demand situation remained weak. The monthly spreads (in absolute value) tended to narrow. The 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 7 yuan/cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 21.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter [18] 3.4 Other - As of the week of November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,125 points (+1.0% week-on-week), the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 819 points (+1.1% week-on-week), and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,451.38 points (+3.6% week-on-week). The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.098 (-0.34% week-on-week), and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.0% to 1.759 [6][50] - A table presents the changes in freight rates and exchange rates, including the Baltic freight index, container shipping index, and exchange rates between the US dollar and RMB, and the US dollar and New Zealand dollar, compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [49]

Group 1: General Information - The report is a PTA daily report dated November 14, 2025 [1][2] - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for different products such as PTA, MEG, urea, etc [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 13th, the closing price of PTA's main futures contract TA2601 was 4,700 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.64%), with a settlement price of 4,644 yuan/ton and a daily reduction of 5,542 lots. The TA2605 contract closed at 4,754 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 99,774 lots, an increase of 4,801 lots [6] - With weak crude oil prices being bearish and India's BIS cancellation being bullish for the PTA market, the PTA market is expected to consolidate [6] Group 3: Industry News - OPEC reported that oil supply will meet demand in 2026. International oil prices ended a three - day rise and closed lower technically. On November 12, the settlement price of WTI crude oil December 2025 futures was $58.49/barrel, down $2.55/barrel (4.18%); Brent crude oil January 2026 futures settled at $62.71/barrel, down $2.45/barrel (3.76%) [7] - The assessed price of PX in the Chinese market was $824 - 826/ton, down $1/ton; in the South Korean market, it was $804 - 806/ton, down $1/ton. There was one transaction of any December shipment at $823/ton [7] - The PTA price in the East China market was 4,568 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 77 yuan/ton to the futures 2601 contract, up 2 yuan/ton [7] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts including PTA futures prices, international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA processing margins, etc [11][13][17]

Report Information - Report Date: November 12, 2025 [2] - Report Type: MEG Daily Report [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The ethylene glycol market currently has fewer bullish supports, and the overall macro - market is cautious. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price will mainly show a weak trend [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: EG2601 closed at 3,875 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan, with a position of 362,650 contracts, an increase of 12,625 contracts; EG2605 closed at 3,966 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, with a position of 41,893 contracts, an increase of 1,907 contracts. On the 11th, the main ethylene glycol futures contract opened at 3,954 yuan, with a high of 3,955 yuan, a low of 3,969 yuan, a settlement price of 3,921 yuan, and a close of 3,875 yuan, down 61 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 174,576 lots, and the position was 362,650 lots [7] 2. Industry News - Oil price: News of the potential end of the US government shutdown injected optimism into the market, boosting the demand expectation of the world's largest oil - consuming country and offsetting concerns about global supply growth. International oil prices continued to rise slightly. On November 10th, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.13 per barrel, up $0.38 or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.41 - $60.48. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.06 per barrel, up $0.43 or 0.68% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.32 - $64.34 [8] - Ethylene glycol market in Zhangjiagang: This week's spot negotiation price was 3,942 - 3,943 yuan/ton, down 57.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Next week's spot negotiation price was 3,941 - 3,943 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price for late November was 3,941 - 3,943 yuan/ton. The basis of this week's spot relative to EG2601 was at a premium of 67 - 68 yuan/ton, next week's spot basis relative to EG2601 was at a premium of 66 - 68 yuan/ton, and the basis for late November relative to EG2601 was at a premium of 66 - 68 yuan/ton [8] - Polyester market: The trading atmosphere of polyester filament cooled compared with the previous day. After the price increase of polyester factories today, the sales volume shrank, and the terminal demand weakened marginally and locally. The futures price of polyester staple fiber first rose and then fell, the price of staple fiber factories was stable, the price of traders decreased slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and the on - site trading was average [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16]

Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - PX maintenance rumors support the PX market, cost drives up PTA, and the downstream polyester operating load is relatively high with good rigid demand. It is expected that the PTA market will rise [6] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 6th, the closing price of the PTA main futures TA2601 was 4,688 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton or 2.27%. The settlement price was 4,620 yuan/ton, and the daily open interest increased by 61,763 lots. The closing price of TA2605 was 4,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 66,851 lots, an increase of 3,185 lots [6] 2. Industry News - US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased significantly, and the international oil price continued to fall. However, gasoline inventories dropped to the lowest level in three years, limiting the decline. On Wednesday (November 5), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.6 per barrel, down $0.96 or 1.59%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.52 per barrel, down $0.92 or 1.43% [7] - The estimated price of PX in the Chinese market was $825 - 827 per ton, up $10 per ton; the estimated price in the South Korean market was $805 - 807 per ton, up $10 per ton. The cost - side oil market continued to fluctuate. Domestic PX plants operated relatively stably, and the demand side showed well due to the release of new PTA production capacity. Participants still had confidence in the future market under the tight - balance pattern [7] - The PTA price in the East China market was 4,541 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 79 yuan/ton to the futures 2601, down 2 yuan/ton [7] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including PTA futures price summary, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, upstream raw material spot price, PX price, MEG price, PTA processing margin, TA5 - 9 spread, PTA warehouse receipt quantity, polyester factory load rate, PTA downstream product price, and PTA downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][17]

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for synthetic rubber showed positive performance on November 6, with the main contract opening at 10,185.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 10,320.0 CNY, marking a 2.18% increase [1] - As of November 5, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber stood at 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period [1] - The Shanghai market saw high-grade butadiene rubber prices increase by 50-100 CNY/ton compared to the previous trading day, as market participants tested higher quotes while negotiating discounts [1] Group 2 - Future trends for synthetic rubber futures are expected to be weak due to increased domestic supply pressure and ongoing challenges in demand from tire manufacturers, with some companies planning to reduce output or conduct maintenance in November [2] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7% in October, but showed a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, indicating a marginal improvement that could support rubber prices [2] - The CSI 1000 index has risen for seven consecutive months, reaching 7,538 points, a year-on-year increase of 45.5%, which is favorable for the rubber and plastics sector [2]

Group 1 - The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 10,755.0 CNY/ton and a decline of approximately 1.58% [1] - As of October 29, 2023, the social inventory of synthetic rubber recorded 30,900 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from the previous week, representing a reduction of 6.93% [1] - The net position of the top 20 futures companies for synthetic rubber shows a net short position of 17,800 contracts, an increase of 3,704 contracts compared to the previous day [1] Group 2 - Southwest Futures indicates that the market is expected to rebound due to increased short-term maintenance, with price increases exceeding expectations; however, the supply side remains weak due to bearish raw material prices and increased private supply [2] - The overall market for polybutadiene rubber is expected to maintain a weak trend with wide fluctuations, and future attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and supply conditions [2]