投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-10-10 昨日棕油领涨油脂市场，关注MPOB报告 油脂：昨日棕油领涨油脂市场，关注MPOB报告 蛋白粕：节后现货回稳，盘面低位震荡 玉米/淀粉：新粮卖压来袭，震荡偏弱 生猪：节后消费淡季，猪价下跌 天然橡胶：关注节后下游表现 合成橡胶：区间震荡格局不改 棉花：棉价承压走弱 白糖：糖价反弹 纸浆：市场心态疲软，纸浆维持下跌 双胶纸：招标提振有限，双胶纸偏弱震荡 原木：现货涨价提振，原木表现偏强 【异动品种】 油脂观点：昨⽇棕油领涨油脂市场，关注MPOB报告 逻辑：因近期美⾖和美⾖油反弹，印尼官员表⽰该国将在2026年强制推⾏ ⽣柴B50政策，及预期⻢棕9⽉库存环⽐回落，昨⽇棕油领涨油脂市场。 从宏观环境看，美国联邦政府仍处于"停摆"状态，叠加地缘与经济不确 定性加剧，近⽇美元持续⾛强，原油价格震荡盘整。从产业端看，受美国 政府"停摆"影响，近期美⾖数据暂停更新，但从今年以来美⾖优良率及 天⽓等条件看，后期美⾖单产和产量下调概率较⼤，⼜市场对美国政府给 予农⺠的⼀揽⼦援助计划和需求改善抱有希望，近⽇美⾖和美⾖油反弹提 振国内油 ...

油脂市场点评: 印尼生柴政策预期利好,棕油领涨油脂市场 2025/10/09 刘高超 刘刚芳 从业资格号:F3011329 从业资格号:F03110661 投资咨询号: Z0012689 投资咨询号: Z0022137 究 王聪颖 李艺华 员 程也 从业资格号 F0254714 从业资格号F03086449 从业资格号: F03087739 投资咨询号 Z0002180 投资咨询号 Z0019380 投资咨询号: Z0019480 = | x | n = | x | n | 40 / x = | nk 出脂目价壳走势 人 湘 胆 斯 TI 正 标油洁联合约收盘价(元/吨) 日语古朗 當价(工/吨) 第中日油(元/陣) 11000 10500 10:50 2000 1500 10000 9501 10100 500 -500 -100 8000 1500 7500 7000 NONONO F = 025/04/ 025/06/ 025/01/ 025/03/ 025/04/ 2025/05/ 025/06/ 025/08/ 2025/01/ 025/02/ 025/03/ 025/05/ 025/07/ 025 ...

油脂油料四季报： 油粕或先抑后扬，关注套利机会 2025年9月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点策略 0203 油脂油料行情回顾 全球油脂油料供需分析 04 国内油脂油料供需分析 01 观点策略 观点策略 供应：预计2025/26年度全球油籽延续供应偏宽松格局，主要是菜籽和葵籽产量恢复，大豆产量小幅增加。美豆种植面积减少， 但单产较高，已经开始收割，供应压力逐渐显现。阿根廷大豆种植面积下降，出现拉尼娜天气的概率较大，阿根廷大豆可能大幅减产。 巴西大豆种植面积增加，预计增产，弥补美豆和阿根廷大豆减产。四季度棕榈油进入季节性减产期，但今年马来西亚和印尼降雨量充 沛，从降雨量对产量的滞后影响来看，预计减产期产量下降幅度也不大，但若发生洪水灾害，则短期可能减产较大。当前马来西亚棕 榈油库存处于高位，印尼棕榈油库存偏低。全球菜籽和葵籽产量恢复，新季菜籽收割后，预计库存逐渐回升。国内方面，大豆进口量 较大，主要采购南美大豆，预计四季度供应偏宽松，棕榈油进口亏损较重，买船不积极，进口量偏低，油厂菜籽库存处于低位，对进 口加拿大油菜籽采用保证金形式实施临时反倾销措施，此前我国主要进口加拿大油菜籽，虽然近期增加澳大利亚的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 to 1150 cents per bushel [5]. Summary by Directory Market Price - China continues to be absent from the US soybean export market, and Argentina's tax - free policy stimulates agricultural exports, squeezing US soybean exports. The US soybean price oscillated and closed lower this week [8][10]. - The US soybean meal price declined this week because Argentina's tax - free policy led global buyers to increase purchases of Argentine agricultural products, putting pressure on US soybean meal exports [11][12]. - The US soybean oil price oscillated lower this week as Argentina's soybean oil exports increased significantly due to the tax - free policy, causing export pressure on US soybean oil [15]. - As of the week ending September 19, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.83 per bushel, and the purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.51 per bushel, slightly down. As of September 26, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.5375 per bushel [17][19][21]. - On September 26, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, slightly decreased to 116.07 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports slightly decreased to 134.88 reais per bag [23][25]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has improved slightly, with a drought rate of 56% this week compared to 58% last week [28]. - In the next two weeks, the temperature in US soybean - producing areas will be relatively warm, with no threat of early frost, and precipitation will be relatively low, which is conducive to crop harvesting [30][32]. - In Brazil, most of the producing areas have slightly less precipitation, the southern region is relatively humid, the sowing in Paraná state is progressing quickly, but the progress in the central - western regions such as Mato Grosso is slow [35]. - Precipitation in Argentina's soybean - producing areas is normal to high, and the sowing work is expected to start in October [37]. - As of the week ending September 9, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, compared with 63% last week and 64% in the same period last year [39]. Demand Factors - As of September 19, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.22 per bushel, up from $3.14 last week [42]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 512,300 tons, down from 837,100 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 484,100 tons, down from 804,300 tons last week [45][47]. - The net sales of US soybeans this year were 724,400 tons, down from 923,000 tons last week; the sales of US soybeans for the next year were 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week [49][51]. - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [53]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.068, indicating that it has entered the La Nina range [56]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [58][60]. - As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,200 lots, compared with 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, compared with 59,400 lots last week [64][66][68].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly Report - Agricultural Products dated September 28, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, and live pigs [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views Palm Oil - The supply - driven price increase is difficult to continue. The European demand support may not end soon, but the demand side is hard to provide further stimulation. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia may accumulate until October and then slowly decline. There may be hidden inventories in Indonesia until the end of the year, and the price may fluctuate until the end of the year [6][8] Soybean Oil - The policy of US soybean oil may be postponed to next year. Before the policy is implemented, it will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. Domestic soybean oil has no independent driving force and will mainly follow the trend of the oil and fat sector [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean - It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean futures will fluctuate. It is necessary to avoid risks during the National Day holiday. For soybean meal, pay attention to trade events and fundamental data; for soybean, the market expects policy support [20][25] Corn - The corn market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The price may rebound in the short term but is expected to decline after the National Day. It is advisable to short at high prices [33][37] Sugar - The sugar market has a weak basis. Internationally, it will mainly be in low - level consolidation; domestically, the basis is bearish [59][61] Cotton - It is expected that the cost of new cotton will continue to dominate the futures price trend. Before the National Day, the Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend, and after the holiday, it will be mainly determined by the new cotton cost [86][102] Group 4: Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Last Week**: After Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, the palm oil 01 contract fell 1.11% last week [5] - **This Week**: European demand support continues, but the demand side lacks stimulation. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia may accumulate until October. The price may fluctuate until the end of the year [6][8] Soybean Oil - **Last Week**: After Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, the soybean oil 01 contract fell 2.09% last week [5] - **This Week**: The policy of US soybean oil may be postponed. Before the policy is implemented, it will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. Domestic soybean oil has no independent driving force [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week**: The price of US soybeans was weak. The domestic soybean meal price was weak, and the soybean price was strong. The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week, and the excellent - good rate decreased [20] - **This Week**: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean futures will fluctuate. For soybean meal, avoid trade event risks; for soybean, the market expects policy support [25] Corn - **Market Review**: The spot price of corn rebounded last week. The futures price first fell and then rose. The basis remained flat [33][34] - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn fell, wheat prices rose, corn starch inventory decreased. The price may rebound in the short term but is expected to decline after the National Day [34][37] Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: Internationally, the price of New York raw sugar rose, and the net long position of funds decreased significantly. Domestically, the spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased, and the basis of the main contract decreased significantly [59][60] - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Internationally, it will be in low - level consolidation; domestically, the basis is bearish [61] Cotton - **Market Data**: ICE cotton was weak, and domestic cotton futures continued to decline [86][89] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the export sales data of US cotton was poor, and the situation in other countries varied. Domestically, the new cotton was expected to be abundant, and the cost was uncertain. The downstream situation was average [90][97] - **Operation Suggestion**: ICE cotton may maintain low - level consolidation. Before the National Day, Zhengzhou cotton futures will be weakly volatile, and after the holiday, the price will be mainly determined by the new cotton cost [102]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on September 24 saw more gains than losses, with the glass main contract rising over 4% and fuel oil main contract increasing over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1456.69 points, up 9.04 points or 0.62% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Glass Industry Insights - The glass main contract experienced a significant increase, with a peak rise of nearly 8% during the trading session, ultimately closing with a 4.74% gain [2] - Market sentiment was driven by rumors of a meeting among glass enterprises and the issuance of a growth stabilization plan for the building materials industry by multiple government departments [2] - Despite the positive sentiment, the glass industry is still at the bottom of the real estate cycle, with weak demand and a need for capacity reduction to address oversupply [2] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Domestic oil-related products rose across the board, with SC crude oil and fuel oil main contracts recording gains of over 1% and 3%, respectively [3] - Concerns over global supply tightening were heightened by recent drone attacks on Russian refineries and potential diesel export bans by the Russian government [3] - Short-term price trends for fuel oil are expected to remain strong due to cost support and recovering demand, although a potential decline in purchasing sentiment is anticipated post-holiday [3] Group 4: Other Commodity Movements - The shipping European line saw a rise, with the main contract increasing over 2% after peaking at over 6% during the session [4] - Oilseed and oil products remained weak, with the main contracts for soybean meal and oil experiencing slight declines, while palm oil showed a small increase due to tightening supply expectations [5][6] - Palm oil prices may rise by approximately 15% as the seasonal high production cycle ends, and potential shortages could arise if Indonesia implements specific policies [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Overall Industry Outlook - The report does not provide a comprehensive investment rating for the entire agricultural industry. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural products: - **Protein Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: Oscillating weakly [2][6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [8] - **Pigs**: Oscillating weakly [9] - **Natural Rubber (RSS3 and TSR20)**: Oscillating [10][12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the medium - term, with short - term attention to support levels [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17] - **Logs**: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. The main influencing factors include international policies (such as Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs), weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. For example, Argentina's cancellation of soybean and other grain export tariffs impacts the global and domestic markets of related products, and weather conditions affect crop yields and harvest schedules [1][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Protein Meal - **Logic**: Argentina's cancellation of soybean export tariffs leads to a decrease in export prices and an expected increase in export volume, which is bearish for the domestic and international soybean markets. Domestically, the opening of import profit for Argentine soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil is expected to increase imports, causing short - term pressure on the domestic market. In the long run, domestic soybean meal supply may increase in Q4 2025, and the supply gap may disappear in Q1 2026. On the demand side, the consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily, while rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and then wait and see [2][6]. 3.2. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The price of domestic corn shows regional differentiation. In the short term, there is pressure from the concentrated listing of new grain, and Argentina's cancellation of corn export tariffs also affects market sentiment. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic under the scenario of tightening carry - over inventory, presenting a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and reverse spread opportunities [8]. 3.3. Pigs - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the cost of breeding is expected to decrease due to Argentina's policy. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy continues to be implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will gradually weaken [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The price is expected to face supply pressure after the National Day, and attention can be paid to reverse spread strategies [9]. 3.4. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Rubber prices are relatively resistant to decline due to favorable fundamentals, showing a pattern of strong spot prices, inventory reduction, and narrowing basis. However, due to poor commodity sentiment, it is difficult to rise independently. In the short term, attention should be paid to the supply increase in the production area and the inventory reduction rate, as well as the downstream procurement willingness [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short term. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks in September [12]. 3.5. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures contract oscillates within a range. The overall commodity trend is weak, but natural rubber is relatively strong, supporting the BR futures. The fundamentals and price operation logic have not changed significantly recently. The price is expected to continue to oscillate between 11300 - 12300 [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating within a range in the short term [13]. 3.6. Cotton - **Logic**: The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production in the new year leads to the market trading the expected supply surplus in advance, causing the cotton price to decline. The current inventory is tight, and the demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability of the peak - season demand is questionable. The market shows a pattern of tight near - term and loose far - term supply [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the medium term. In the short term, pay attention to the support at 13500 yuan/ton [14]. 3.7. Sugar - **Logic**: Zhengzhou sugar prices continue to decline, breaking through the 5500 yuan/ton level. Macroeconomically, the market has digested the Fed's interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, the international trade flow is loose, and domestic consumption and imports are not favorable. In the long term, the global sugar supply is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 crushing season [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15]. 3.8. Pulp - **Logic**: Pulp futures oscillate at a low level, with differences between near - term and far - term contracts. The market has both positive and negative factors, but the impact is not strong. The fundamentals are still bearish, but the futures price has already factored in the negative news, and the price of bleached northern softwood kraft pulp has stabilized [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. 3.9. Offset Printing Paper - **Logic**: The futures price oscillates narrowly around 4200 yuan. The short - term fundamentals have limited changes, with sufficient supply and no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. Attention should be paid to new driving factors such as publishing tenders [17]. - **Outlook**: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17]. 3.10. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures price oscillates narrowly. The fundamentals have marginally improved, but there is no strong upward driving force. From the perspective of delivery, it has a bearish impact on the futures price [19]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19].

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have significantly declined, with the main contract reported at 8964.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a drop of 3.88% [1] Group 1: Market Data - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported a 6.57% month-on-month decrease in Malaysian palm oil yield for the period of September 1-20, 2025, along with a 0.25% decrease in extraction rate and a 7.89% reduction in production [2] - As of September 19, domestic palm oil commercial inventory stands at 600,000 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 50,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 130,000 tons [2] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) indicated that the price of crude palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 4200 to 4500 MYR per ton in the short term, supported by a robust global vegetable oil market and supply uncertainties [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures suggests that the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for palm oil market consumption expectations, with buying demand noted in mid-September. The fundamental outlook remains bullish, but caution is advised due to frequent changes in U.S. biodiesel policies that may negatively impact palm oil adjustments [3] - Dae Yu Futures notes that oilseed prices are stabilizing, with a relaxed domestic fundamental environment and stable oilseed supply. The USDA's high production expectations for South America in 2024/25 and neutral Malaysian palm oil inventory are highlighted, along with improved demand due to Indonesia's B40 policy promoting domestic consumption [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent core events and market review show that the yield and production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in the first 15 days of September, India's port inventory continued to accumulate in August, and the overall price of oils and fats was affected by multiple factors. Short - term oil and fat prices lack obvious drivers but have strong support below. Oils and fats are in the bottom - grinding stage, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches after a pullback [4][5][25] - For palm oil, it is expected that the production in September may decline, exports may increase slightly, and the stable spot price in the producing areas supports the price. For soybean oil, it is affected by the expected US biodiesel policy, and China often exports soybean oil to India. Also, it is necessary to pay attention to whether US soybeans can be imported. Rapeseed oil in China continues to reduce inventory marginally, which supports its price [5][25] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: SPPOMA data shows that from September 1 - 15, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 8.05% month - on - month, with the decline increasing compared to the first 10 days. ITS data shows that from September 1 - 20, exports increased by 8.7% month - on - month to 1.01 million tons. Malaysia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in October to 4,268.68 ringgit per ton, with an export tax rate of 10%, which supports the price at the cost end [8] - **India's Oil Market**: As of August, India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year reached 12.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Palm oil imports decreased by 19%, soybean oil imports reached a record high of 3.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43%, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 25% year - on - year. In August, the port inventory continued to accumulate to 970,000 tons, with palm oil inventory increasing from 450,000 to 540,000 tons, and sunflower oil and soybean oil inventory decreasing to about 210,000 tons. India's edible oil import profit is not good recently, and the procurement has slowed down [14] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of September 12, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 641,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,200 tons or 3.58%. The spot trading volume decreased significantly, the basis was stable and slightly weak, and the import profit gap widened. In the short term, palm oil lacks obvious drivers and maintains a volatile trend. It is recommended to consider buying on dips in batches [17] - **Soybean Oil**: As of September 12, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2512 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons or 0.01%. The basis was stable. Affected by the expected US biodiesel policy, soybean oil prices rose and then corrected. In the future, as the arrival of domestic soybeans decreases, soybean oil inventory may gradually decline. It is recommended to consider buying on dips in batches [20] - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of September 12, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 614,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,100 tons or 3.3%. The inventory continued to decline marginally, the basis was stable and increasing, and the monthly spread increased significantly. The fundamental situation of domestic rapeseed oil has not changed much, and it is necessary to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [23] Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: In the short term, the oil and fat market lacks obvious drivers and is in the bottom - grinding stage. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches after a pullback [27] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [27] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [27] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Multiple data charts are provided, including the monthly production, export, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil; the supply and demand of Indonesian palm oil; the international soybean oil market; India's oil and fat supply and demand; domestic rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil import profits; domestic oil and fat supply and demand; domestic oil and fat spot basis; and domestic oil and fat commercial inventory [31][37][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil's main continuous contract fell 21 to close at 4,424 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.47%; palm oil's 01 contract rose 20 to close at 9,316 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22%; soybean oil's 01 contract rose 6 to close at 8,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07%; rapeseed oil's 01 contract rose 211 to close at 10,068 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14%; CBOT US soybean oil's main continuous contract fell 1.53 to close at 50.59 cents/pound, a decline of 2.94%; ICE rapeseed's active contract fell 18.6 to close at 618.7 Canadian dollars/ton, a decline of 2.92% [4]. - Palm oil fluctuated within the week, first rising then falling. India's strong imports in August and heavy rainfall in Malaysian production areas, which affected production and led to a weakening of Malaysian palm oil production on a month - on - month basis, limited the price decline. However, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy and the decline of US soybean oil dragged down the palm oil trend. Rapeseed oil was strong due to expected low supply in the context of China - Canada trade and continued inventory reduction in China [4][7]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week. The dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices weakened. In terms of fundamentals, heavy rainfall in Malaysian production areas affected production and logistics, and the output of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of September decreased on a month - on - month basis, limiting price declines. But the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy dragged down US soybean oil. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - CBOT soybean oil's main continuous contract fell from 52.12 cents/pound to 50.59 cents/pound, a decline of 2.94%; BMD Malaysian palm oil's main continuous contract fell from 4,445 ringgit/ton to 4,424 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.47%; palm oil's 01 contract rose from 9,296 yuan/ton to 9,316 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22%; soybean oil's 01 contract rose from 8,322 yuan/ton to 8,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07%; rapeseed oil's 01 contract rose from 9,857 yuan/ton to 10,068 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14%. Spot prices also showed different trends [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Palm oil fluctuated within the week, with India's strong imports and production problems in Malaysia limiting price declines, while the US biodiesel policy uncertainty and the decline of US soybean oil dragging it down. Rapeseed oil was strong due to supply concerns [7]. - From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil's yield, oil extraction rate, and output decreased on a month - on - month basis. Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 showed mixed trends. India's palm oil imports in August reached a high level, and the total import of edible vegetable oil also increased [8][9]. - As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of three major oils in key regions in China increased slightly compared to last week and significantly compared to the same period last year. As of September 19, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil increased, while that of palm oil decreased [9][10]. 3.3 Industry News - Heavy rainfall in Sabah, Malaysia, caused floods and the cancellation of a state - level celebration. Edible oil prices, including palm oil, are expected to be firm in 2025, and the supply - demand gap will continue in 2026 [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in futures and spot markets, as well as the production, inventory, and export data of Malaysia and Indonesia's palm oil, and the commercial inventory of three major oils in China [12][13][14]