1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific variety, it gives the following outlooks: - Oils and fats: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Protein meal: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and CBOT soybeans are expected to fluctuate, with an expected upward - trending range - bound movement for soybean and rapeseed meal [10]. - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [12]. - Hogs: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend [15]. - Natural rubber: Expected to fluctuate [16]. - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short at high prices [20]. - Cotton: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [21]. - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term [22]. - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate [24]. - Offset paper: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, international trade, weather, and policies to provide short - term and medium - to - long - term outlooks for each product [9][10][12]. 3. Summary by Variety Oils and Fats - **Logic**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined due to technical resistance, while CBOT soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil and soybean oil being stronger. The market is waiting for US economic data, and there are uncertainties in the Fed's monetary policy and Russian oil supply. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the planting progress in Brazil and Argentina is normal. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is relatively high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in November, while exports decreased. The consumption of palm oil for biodiesel in Indonesia increased, and its inventory remained low. Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The supply of domestic rapeseed is currently tight, but it is expected to increase later [2][9]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. Protein Meal - **Logic**: The USDA's supply - demand report lowered the export forecast for US soybeans. The premium of US soybeans over South American soybeans is high, but Chinese purchases have returned. The crushing volume of US soybeans in October reached a new high. South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. In China, the import profit of soybeans has recovered, and there are expectations of soybean auctions. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in recent years, and the sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal have increased. The soybean inventory of oil mills is high, and the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing but still high year - on - year [10]. - **Outlook**: CBOT soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 3000 [10]. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn spot price has a narrow fluctuation range, with a "strong in the south, weak in the north" pattern in ports. On the supply side, cold weather has led to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. In the demand side, the demand for feed grains in the sales area is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the China National Grain and Oil Information Center continues [12][13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, as the bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the spot price is expected to remain strong [13]. Hogs - **Logic**: The supply of hogs is abundant, and there is sporadic bacon - curing in the south. In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days is slow. In the medium term, the supply of hogs in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction [14]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend. The near - term contracts face high - capacity realization and post - poned inventory from secondary fattening, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [15]. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market sentiment is currently strong, but there are no new marginal bullish factors from the fundamental perspective. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, which supports the market to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the past two weeks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is still okay after the price decline [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the rubber price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a wide range with high elasticity. There is no obvious trend in the short term [17]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures showed a volatile trend and rose rapidly before the close, which was affected by overseas device news. The main reason for the support of the futures is the relatively stable trading of the raw material butadiene. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Some downstream enterprises have made low - price replenishments, and the market has received short - term bottom support [20]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and the raw material side are under great pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices before there are obvious supply - demand contradictions in butadiene [20]. Cotton - **Logic**: In October, the Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded due to the downward adjustment of production expectations and the firm purchase price of Xinjiang cotton seeds. In November, the driving force for the rebound weakened, and the supply pressure increased as the production expectation was raised again and the listing peak season arrived. The downstream demand also weakened seasonally [21]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. It is advisable to buy at low prices [21]. Sugar - **Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures fell again this week. In the medium - to - long term, both domestic and international sugar prices have downward drivers. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. The new sugar pressing in the Northern Hemisphere has started, and the supply pressure will gradually increase [22]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the short - term price range is expected to be between 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton [22]. Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures continued to decline, mainly because the long - side funds left after the price reached above 5500. There is an obvious position - shifting behavior this week, which has accelerated the exit of funds from the 01 contract. The supply - demand relationship has no serious contradictions, and both supply and demand are high [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely [24]. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The tender for offset paper has limited support. The offset paper futures have followed the pulp to weaken, but the overall fundamentals are still at the bottom in November. In the short term, factors such as paper mills' price - holding intention, downstream printing factories' rigid demand, and the limited driving force of tender prices affect the price. In December, the "volume - boosting price - cutting" by dealers may drag down the market, and in the first quarter of 2026, the market is expected to enter a sideways - consolidation phase [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures rebounded slightly in the first half of the week and then weakened again. The supply pressure is expected to ease seasonally in the first quarter of next year, but there is still long - term supply pressure. The demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026, with a seasonal decline in the first quarter. The inventory is expected to decline slowly in the short term and then increase seasonally [27]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of CITICS Futures showed different degrees of increase on November 19, 2025. The agricultural product index increased by 0.07% on that day, decreased by 1.18% in the past five days, increased by 0.52% in the past month, and decreased by 2.70% since the beginning of the year [186][187].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term strategy is to wait and see. The futures price of rapeseed oil fluctuated and closed higher this week. Although the supply of Canadian rapeseed is under pressure, the agreement between Canada and Pakistan on rapeseed export provides support. Domestically, the supply of imported rapeseed in the near - term is tight, and oil mills' rapeseed stocks are exhausted, leading to a de - stocking mode for rapeseed oil, which supports its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage limit the demand for rapeseed oil to mainly rigid demand. The rapeseed oil futures price has recovered from its low level recently [7][8]. - **For Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term strategy is to participate on the long side. The futures price of rapeseed meal rose significantly this week. The optimistic sentiment in the US soybean trade boosts the price of US soybean futures, which is beneficial to the domestic meal market through cost transmission. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the supply pressure is small. But the demand for rapeseed meal from aquaculture is weakening, and the abundant supply of soybeans and good substitution advantage of soybean meal weaken the demand expectation. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. Recently, the prices of both rapeseed meal and soybean meal have rebounded from their lows and strengthened in the short - term [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 01 contract closed at 9533 yuan/ton, up 111 yuan/ton from the previous week. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [7][8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 01 contract closed at 2539 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton from the previous week. The short - term strategy is to participate on the long side [10][11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated slightly higher at a low level this week, with a total position of 210,490 lots, down 10,248 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures strengthened significantly, with a total position of 463,486 lots, up 120,043 lots from last week [16]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures changed from net long to net short, with a net position of - 8654 this week compared to + 2459 last week. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures changed from net short to net long, with a net position of + 26405 this week compared to - 88865 last week [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 5024 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 2745 lots [29][30]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9850 yuan/ton, slightly rising from last week, and the basis between the active contract futures price and the spot price is + 317 yuan/ton. The price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2540 yuan/ton, continuing to rise from last week, and the basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract futures price is + 1 yuan/ton [37][43]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is + 405 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal is + 123 yuan/ton, at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [48]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is 3.755, and the average spot price ratio is 3.75 [51]. - **Price Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals**: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1349 yuan/ton, with little change this week. The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 873 yuan/ton, slightly widening this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 519 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 510 yuan/ton [61][67]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Rapeseed Supply**: As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 10,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in October, November, and December 2025 are 65,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 620,000 tons respectively. As of November 6, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is + 1145 yuan/ton. As of the 44th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills is 6000 tons, up 2000 tons from last week, and the weekly startup rate is 1.47%. In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 115,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 691,600 tons (85.71%) and a month - on - month decrease of 131,400 tons [73][77][85]. - **Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand**: As of the 44th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 573,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28,000 tons (4.72%). In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 156,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,200 tons (6.99%) and a month - on - month increase of 19,000 tons. As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.95 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue is 450.86 billion yuan. As of the 44th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 45,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons (27.30%) [89][93][97]. - **Rapeseed Meal Supply and Demand**: As of the 44th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal is 7000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1000 tons (6.67%). In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 157,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64,700 tons (29.08%) and a month - on - month decrease of 55,700 tons. As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 3.1287 million tons [101][105][109]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - As of November 7, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 21.1%, a decrease of 1.03% from 22.13% last week, and it is slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [114].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the oil and fat market has improved, and it is waiting for the fermentation of bullish factors. The protein meal market has seen a decline with reduced positions and light trading. The corn/starch market has shown stable to weak spot prices and an increase in positions on the futures market. The hog market is experiencing price fluctuations due to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices. The natural rubber market has rebounded strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. The synthetic rubber market has seen a temporary improvement in sentiment as raw material prices have stabilized. The cotton market is fluctuating within a narrow range with limited upside and downside potential. The sugar market is testing its lower support in the short term. The pulp market has continued to rise, and the enthusiasm for futures - cash arbitrage has increased. The double - glue paper market has strengthened following the pulp market. The log market is oscillating at the bottom [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fats - **View**: The market sentiment has improved, waiting for bullish factors to ferment. The outlook is that palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil will oscillate. - **Logic**: Optimistic trade sentiment led to the rise of US soybeans on Wednesday, and domestic oils stopped falling and rose yesterday, with palm and rapeseed oils being relatively strong. The US government is in a "shutdown," and the market doubts the Fed's further interest rate cuts this year. US crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly. From an industrial perspective, US soybean data updates are suspended. The US soybean harvest is nearly over, and the market expects a high probability of a decline in US soybean yield. China's tariff adjustment policy boosts the export demand for US soybeans. Brazilian soybean planting is going smoothly. The arrival of imported soybeans in China may be at a relatively high level, and the de - stocking of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. In October, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month, and the probability of inventory accumulation is high. Indonesia's palm oil inventory remains low due to increased consumption in biodiesel. India's vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. With the large - scale listing of Russian rapeseed, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil is expected to increase [2][6]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The market has seen a decline with reduced positions and light trading. The outlook is that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are oscillating at a high level, and the positive impact of China's purchases has been gradually digested. Attention should be paid to the US soybean yield and the growth of South American soybeans. The export volume of old - crop Brazilian soybeans in October decreased, but the discount is more favorable than that of the US. Brazilian soybeans will enter a critical growth period in November, and the impact of La Nina should be monitored. CBOT US soybeans are approaching a reasonable valuation, and new bullish factors are needed for an upward movement. Domestically, in the short term, the import and crushing profit of the January futures contract is still in the red, and profit margins need to be provided to stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the quantity of China's US soybean purchases will be gradually realized. The South American weather and the strength of the fourth - quarter consumption season will determine the upward potential of soybean meal. In the long term, there is expected to be no gap in soybean supply and demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, and rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Spot prices are stable to weak, and the futures market has increased positions and risen. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is generally stable with local fluctuations. In the Northeast, farmers are reluctant to sell as the temperature drops, and the supply pressure has eased. However, there are bottlenecks in transportation capacity, leading to increased freight costs and a slow - to - resolve shortage in the sales area. In November, the market is still under the pressure of new grain listing. The expected increase in production in the Northeast will drag down prices. Feed - using enterprises are mainly replenishing inventory based on rigid demand, and there is insufficient upward driving force for prices before large - scale inventory building occurs [7][8]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices are oscillating. The outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: The supply and demand are loose, but farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices after the price weakens has led to a low - level oscillation of hog prices. In the short term, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in hog prices has suppressed the enthusiasm for second - fattening. In the medium term, the number of sows capable of reproduction was at a high level in the first half of 2025, and the number of newborn piglets increased from January to September. It is expected that the hog slaughter volume will continue to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the capacity of sows capable of reproduction has started to decline. With the dual drivers of "policy + losses," the reduction of sow production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the second half of 2026. The demand has increased slightly as the temperature drops. Group farms are actively selling, and the average weight has decreased. The enthusiasm for second - fattening has weakened [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The market has rebounded strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The rebound of the natural rubber market is in line with the rebound rhythm of commodities. The fundamental situation can provide some bottom support. The RU warehouse receipts have been continuously cancelled, and the new rubber registration progress is slow, with a lower valuation compared to NR. The import pressure in November may be relatively large, which will put pressure on the upside of NR. The short - term spread between RU and NR may be repaired. The recent price fluctuations are mainly affected by the macro - environment. If there is no further macro - driving force, the rubber price may face downward adjustment pressure. However, as it enters November, there may still be room for speculation about domestic rubber - cutting suspension and RU warehouse receipts, so the downside space is relatively limited [9][11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and sentiment has temporarily improved. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The BR main contract has switched to the January contract and continued to rebound, returning to the level before Tuesday's decline. The improvement in sentiment is due to the better trading volume and temporary stabilization of butadiene prices, along with a strong rebound in the overall commodity market. The price of butadiene dropped rapidly last week to a record low this year. The supply - demand contradiction in the market has intensified, and the cautious attitude of downstream buyers has led to poor trading volume. Although the downstream buyers have gradually entered the market after the price dropped to a low level, and the supply side of butadiene intends to stop the price decline, buyers are still cautious. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the improvement in trading sentiment can continue to support the butadiene price. In the medium term, the supply - demand of butadiene will remain in surplus in the next two months before the end of the year, and the price may decline further [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The market is fluctuating within a narrow range with limited upside and downside potential. The short - term outlook is for the January contract to oscillate within a range, and the long - term outlook is for a bullish oscillation. - **Logic**: The increase in the new - season Xinjiang cotton production is less than expected, and the purchase cost has increased, which supported the cotton price to oscillate strongly in October. The improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the reduction of import tariffs on US cotton are expected to promote US cotton exports to China and China's textile exports next year, but the short - term impact is limited. With the listing of new cotton, the supply has increased, and the cotton price is under pressure. At the same time, the profit from hedging has gradually emerged, and there is hedging pressure on the upside of the cotton price. The upper pressure on the January contract is 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 13,300 - 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The market is testing its lower support in the short term. The long - term outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: In the international market, the peak of Brazil's bi - weekly sugar production has ended, and the export volume in October has decreased, which may marginally improve the loose international trade flow. However, as the Northern Hemisphere enters the peak crushing season, the supply of new sugar will increase, and the downward pressure on international sugar prices remains. Brazil's cumulative sugar production has increased slightly year - on - year, and the market's expectation of Brazil's production increase has not changed. Thailand and India are expected to increase production in the new season. In the domestic market, the demand from August to September was average, and the industrial inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan have increased year - on - year. Although the tightening of import controls on syrups and premixes and the expected exhaustion of import licenses have made the domestic market relatively strong, there is still downward pressure on the domestic market as the southern sugar enters the peak crushing season [14][15]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The market has continued to rise, and the enthusiasm for futures - cash arbitrage has increased. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The recent rise is due to the expected increase in the price of downstream paper driven by the increase in packaging paper prices and the improvement in the tender demand for cultural paper, as well as the increase in wood chip prices. From a medium - term perspective, the previously traded bearish factors have not completely ended. Although the bullish factors in downstream demand may bring short - term bullishness, the upward space is expected to be limited. On the fundamental side, the demand for softwood pulp has been low due to formula adjustments in recent years. There is export pressure from overseas to China, and the import price in US dollars remains weak. The hardwood pulp market has an obvious surplus situation. Although the demand has increased seasonally, it is difficult to support the price above the production cost. The futures main contract price is approaching the prices of some brands, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium under the weak supply - demand background. The large number of expiring warehouse receipts this year will also put pressure on the futures price. However, there are also some bullish factors, such as the obvious increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the cost of hardwood imports, and the expected marginal improvement in cultural paper demand in November and December. The paper pulp futures market is inclined to a wait - and - see attitude [16]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: The market has strengthened following the pulp market. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The price of double - glue paper in Shandong has remained stable. The market supply is abundant, and the consumption - side support is insufficient. The supply - demand relationship is still weak, and the support from wood pulp is limited. The new production facilities are operating stably, and the paper supply surplus is still severe. The demand side has seen the start of publishing tenders, but the social orders have not improved significantly, and the overall downstream consumption is still weak. Some factories are facing greater production and sales pressure. Although some paper enterprises have announced price increase plans in early November, the market is waiting and seeing, and most prices will remain stable at the end - of - month settlement. The publishing tenders have not yet started intensively, and the demand side has no obvious positive factors. The upstream wood pulp price is under pressure, and the cost support for double - glue paper is limited. The price of double - glue paper is expected to stabilize [17]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: The market is oscillating at the bottom. The outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: The log market has remained weak and stable this week. On the one hand, traders are actively selling, and the decline in the sales volume of laminated wood has put pressure on the price of sawn timber, leading to downward pressure on the spot market. On the other hand, New Zealand log suppliers have adjusted their quotes, and there will be a greater pressure of blue - stained timber on the arrival of ships in the future, which will also put pressure on the spot market. The log peak season is gradually ending, and the port outbound volume will decline. After the peak season in mid - fourth quarter, the log inventory may accumulate again. Although the market has a short - term bearish sentiment, the log valuation is not high, and the inventory in the Jiangsu market is relatively low, so the downward space is limited. The speculative side is advised to wait and see [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are expected to be in a weak or fluctuating state, while others are affected by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, trade relations, and policies [5][6][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1.油脂 - **观点**：继续偏弱运行，关注近期低点支撑有效性，中期展望为豆油、棕油、菜油均震荡偏弱 [5]. - **逻辑**：宏观上，美国联邦政府“停摆”，中美贸易谈判将再度进行，市场对美联储降息预期强等；产业端，美豆数据暂停更新，收获进度达7层，单产下调概率大，巴西新季大豆预期产量增3.6%，种植进度21.7%，国内进口大豆到港量或处高位，豆油去库慢；马棕10月或累库，印尼生柴需求预期增加，印度植物油进口或季节性下降；10月后国内菜油库存或止降回升 [5]. 3.1.2.蛋白粕 - **观点**：空头获利了结，双粕低位大幅反弹，中期展望为豆粕、菜粕震荡 [6]. - **逻辑**：国际上，中美月底会晤前将在马来磋商，阿根廷挤占美豆出口份额，巴西大豆对华出口增加，巴西新作播种进度同比偏快；国内方面，市场采购美豆预期存变数，空头获利了结引发反弹，美豆进口增长预期叠加现实供应压力，期现货价格反弹高度有限，长期四季度国内豆粕供应充足，2026年一季度或有少量缺口，需求端豆粕消费刚需或稳中有增，水产消费淡季菜粕弱于豆粕 [6]. 3.1.3.玉米及淀粉 - **观点**：现货涨跌不一，期货震荡企稳，中期展望为震荡 [7]. - **逻辑**：国内玉米价格涨跌互现，东北丰产预期强，面临卖压冲击，华北受降雨影响，粮质霉变风险高，收割进度受扰，销区用粮企业刚需补库；短期反弹有港口缺货、直属库收购等因素，卖压驱动未完全释放，维持震荡偏弱看法，长期库存趋紧，市场短空长多 [9]. 3.1.4.生猪 - **观点**：下游抵触高价，猪价震荡，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [10]. - **逻辑**：供应上，短期二育少量入场，10月出栏量环比增5%，中期四季度出栏量预计增加，长期能繁母猪产能开始去化；需求为消费淡季，肉猪比价下跌；库存二育小幅累库；短期供需宽松，猪周期下行，长期产能去化后供应压力有望减轻 [10]. 3.1.5.天然橡胶 - **观点**：继续震荡整理运行，中期展望为震荡 [11]. - **逻辑**：天胶阶段性见底和估值偏低带来超跌反弹，RU抛储超预期，01合约仍可能炒作，NR标胶进口量低、仓单少、原料坚挺；基本面无新增信息，供应压力不大，需求端四季度轮胎出口走弱预期内，价格单边难把控，关注增仓上涨持续性 [13]. 3.1.6.合成橡胶 - **观点**：盘面延续窄幅震荡，中期展望为震荡 [15]. - **逻辑**：今年产量偏高是盘面压力，下游需求增加但增速不及产量，社会库存高位；原料丁二烯价格上周跌后整理，宏观消息和刚需买盘提振成交气氛 [15]. 3.1.7.棉花 - **观点**：成本提升抬高郑棉估值，关注贸易磋商动态，中期展望为震荡 [16]. - **逻辑**：国庆前棉价下行，节后跌势放缓反弹，原因一是新疆棉花产量预估下调，二是籽棉收购价坚挺推高皮棉加工成本；短期棉价易涨难跌，四季度上涨后有回调风险，关注中美贸易谈判 [17]. 3.1.8.白糖 - **观点**：外弱内强，糖价低位盘整，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [19]. - **逻辑**：中长期25/26榨季全球糖市供应过剩，主产国产量预计增加，糖价熊市格局；短期巴西中南部食糖产量下降但出口增加，国内销量一般，库存同比提高，进口高值，外盘走低，内盘抗跌，后续北半球新糖供应期糖价走弱压力增大 [19]. 3.1.9.纸浆 - **观点**：期货连续反弹，现货维持弱势，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [20]. - **逻辑**：期货延续反弹，现货清淡，十一后期货底部震荡；供需无明显利多，市场关注纸浆虚实结合比和年底集中注销；基本面难大涨，欧洲消费疲弱，中国刚需稳定，追涨情绪不高，国内经济偏弱，需警惕废纸系影响，01合约低位震荡，偏空交易 [20]. 3.1.10.双胶纸 - **观点**：双胶纸维持窄幅震荡，中期展望为震荡 [21]. - **逻辑**：盘面在4200元一线震荡，10月底招标旺季，现货重心持稳；纸厂排产情况不一，经销商稳价出货，市场订单跟进不足，下游印厂刚需采买，交投不活跃；成本端木浆市场少数下跌，招标季纸价有底部支撑，但华南新产能放量或牵制纸价 [22]. 3.1.11.原木 - **观点**：原木震荡运行，中期展望为震荡 [24]. - **逻辑**：特别港务费出台后盘面短期提振，海运费上涨提高估值，但现货10月末有下调预期；基本面偏弱，重庆国产材交割利空，港口出库量回落，库存累库；四季度新西兰原木进口季节性增长，库存绝对水平不低，房地产需求疲软，交割面暂无明显驱动，关注新西兰发运情况 [24]. 3.2.品种数据监测 - The report lists different product categories such as "油脂油料", "玉米、淀粉", "棉花、棉纱", "白糖", "纸浆及双胶纸", "原木", but no specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3.评级标准 - The report provides a rating standard including "偏强" (expected increase > 2 standard deviations), "震荡偏强" (expected increase 1 - 2 standard deviations), "震荡" (expected increase/decrease within ±1 standard deviation), "震荡偏弱" (expected decrease 1 - 2 standard deviations), "偏弱" (expected decrease > 2 standard deviations), with a time - cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and 1 standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [178]. 3.4.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**：Not provided with specific data. - **特色指数**：The "商品20指数" is 2546.54, up 0.58%; the "工业品指数" is 2229.03, up 1.12%; the "PPI商品指数" is 1342.15, up 0.86% [180]. - **板块指数**：The "农产品指数" on 2025 - 10 - 23 is 928.25, with a daily increase of 0.45%, a 5 - day increase of 1.29%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.42%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.77% [181].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Bearish outlook, with palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil expected to oscillate weakly [2][5] - **Protein Meals**: Expected to oscillate, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal in a sideways trend [5] - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to oscillate, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [6][7] - **Hogs**: Expected to oscillate weakly, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [12] - **Cotton**: Expected to oscillate, with a price range of 13100 - 13800 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [13][15] - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a recommendation of selling on rebounds [16] - **Pulp**: Expected to oscillate weakly, dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand [18] - **Offset Paper**: Expected to oscillate, with support at the bottom during the tender season [19][20] - **Logs**: Expected to oscillate, with opportunities to go long on dips in the 01 contract in the short term [21] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Due to profit - taking, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday, causing domestic oils and fats to decline. The Malaysian palm oil inventory may continue to build up, and factors such as the smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans and the seasonal decline in Indian vegetable oil imports increase the downward pressure on oils and fats [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Internationally, US soybeans are affected by Sino - US trade relations, with a low - level rebound. Domestically, there is a short - term expectation of increased US soybean imports, and the supply pressure is high. In the long term, the supply of soybean meal in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, while there may be a small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the futures price has declined slightly. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter progress has accelerated, and the rebound momentum has slowed down. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and in the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is in an oscillating and consolidating state. The recent rebound is a temporary oversold rebound, and the supply pressure is not significant for the time being. The demand is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price has returned to a narrow - range oscillation. The high production this year and the high social inventory are the main pressures. The raw material price has shown some support after a decline [12]. - **Cotton**: The purchase price has continued to rise slightly, boosting the cotton price. The estimated cotton production in Xinjiang has been revised down, and the short - term downward driving force is weakened, but there is a risk of correction after the rise [13]. - **Sugar**: The external market has continued to decline, and the weak pattern is difficult to change. In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is in a bear market [16]. - **Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the futures price is running at a low level. The supply - demand fundamentals are difficult to support a significant rise, and the warehouse receipts have a negative impact on the futures price [18]. - **Offset Paper**: Tenders are gradually starting, and there is support at the bottom. The market is currently in a low - activity state, and the cost support is general [19][20]. - **Logs**: There is a game on the information side, and the price is oscillating. The special port fee issue is under implementation, and the market is in a weak state due to factors such as weak demand and inventory build - up [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by profit - taking and the possible build - up of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the price is under pressure. The macro environment and industrial factors are complex, with factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the production and export of soybeans and palm oil having an impact [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Internationally, US soybeans are affected by Sino - US trade and South American competition. Domestically, the short - term supply pressure is high, and the long - term supply situation varies. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price increase has slowed, and the futures price has declined. The short - term supply pressure is not fully released, and the long - term inventory is expected to be tight [6][7]. - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease with the reduction of sow capacity [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The recent rebound is an oversold one. The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The high production and inventory are the main pressures, and the raw material price has shown some support [12]. - **Cotton**: The estimated production has been revised down, and the purchase price has risen, driving the price up. There is a risk of correction in the fourth quarter [13]. - **Sugar**: The long - term supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term external market is weak. The internal market is relatively resistant to decline but may face downward pressure in the future [16]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the warehouse receipts have a negative impact on the futures price [18]. - **Offset Paper**: Tenders are starting, and there is support at the bottom. The market activity is low, and the cost support is general [19][20]. - **Logs**: The special port fee issue is affecting the market, and the demand is weak with inventory build - up [21]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various varieties including oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but no specific data monitoring details are provided in the non - omitted content [23][42][55]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include "bullish", "oscillating bullishly", "oscillating", "oscillating bearishly", and "bearish", with the time period being the next 2 - 12 weeks and the standard deviation calculated as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price [176]. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) are presented, with their respective values and changes [178][180].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating (Soybean oil), Oscillating (Palm oil), Oscillating with an upward bias (Rapeseed oil) [1][6] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating (Soybean meal), Oscillating (Rapeseed meal) [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating with a downward bias [7][8] - **Hogs**: Oscillating with a downward bias [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13][14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating with a downward bias (Mid - term), Oscillating (Short - term) [14][15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a downward bias (Long - term), Bouncing back from a low level (Short - term) [16] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [17] - **Double - Gum Paper**: Oscillating with a downward bias [19] - **Logs**: Oscillating [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is highly volatile due to trade policy changes, with different trends for soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils. Protein meal rebounds from a low level after the impact of Argentine soybean exports. Corn's upward trend is hard to sustain due to improved weather. Hog prices show a near - term weak and long - term strong pattern. Natural rubber maintains a narrow - range oscillation before the holiday, and synthetic rubber stays in an oscillating range. Cotton prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term due to expected yield increases. Sugar prices are expected to decline in the long - term due to expected supply surpluses. Pulp and double - gum paper show oscillating trends, and logs follow the market with a narrow - range oscillation [1][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views - **Oils and Fats**: Concerns about delayed US soybean export demand led to a bearish oscillation of US soybeans on Wednesday, while domestic oils and fats rebounded on Thursday. The US dollar strengthened, and crude oil prices rose. US soybean harvest progress is normal, but the good - quality rate is lower than last year, and the probability of a further decline in yield is high. Argentine soybean export tax policy impact may end, and domestic soybean imports are expected to decrease seasonally. Palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in September, and exports increased, with limited inventory accumulation. Indonesian biodiesel demand for palm oil may be better than expected. Rapeseed oil imports are expected to be low before November, and domestic inventories may continue to decline [1][6] - **Protein Meal**: The impact of Argentine soybean exports has been realized, and the market rebounds from a low level. International soybean premiums are rising, and US soybeans are entering the harvest period. South American soybean sowing progress is slower than usual. In China, 20 ships of Argentine soybeans have been ordered, and short - term negative factors are exhausted. In the long - term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to increase in Q4 2025 and the supply gap will disappear in Q1 2026 [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Domestic corn prices are weak. New corn in Heilongjiang's eastern region is on the market, and the purchase price is falling. In North China, the increase in price has slowed down due to improved weather. Argentina has cancelled corn export tariffs, but the impact is limited. In the short - term, there is pressure from new grain listing, and in the long - term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [7][8] - **Hogs**: In the short - term, hog supply is abundant, and in the medium - term, the number of hogs for slaughter is expected to increase. The "anti - involution" policy is guiding the industry to reduce production capacity. In the short - term, prices are under pressure, and in the long - term, prices may strengthen if the policy is effectively implemented [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices oscillate before the holiday. The fundamentals are strong in the short - term, but there is an expectation of increased supply in Q4. Downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR market continues to oscillate within a range. There are many device overhauls expected from September to November, and the price is at a low level, so the bearish sentiment has decreased. The raw material butadiene price oscillates slightly [13][14] - **Cotton**: New - season Xinjiang cotton production is expected to increase significantly. The inventory is tight in the near - term and loose in the long - term. Demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability is questionable. Before new cotton harvest, the purchase price may support the futures price, but in the later stage, the price may decline [14][15] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices have fallen below 5500 yuan/ton, and the decline has slowed down. In the short - term, the international trade flow is loose, and domestic consumption and imports are not favorable. In the long - term, global sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and prices are under downward pressure [16] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures oscillate at a low level. After the 09 contract delivery, the market has reached a consensus on the price. The US dollar - denominated pulp price is expected to decline, and the paper market has not effectively transmitted the price. The overall fundamentals are weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [17] - **Double - Gum Paper**: Double - gum paper futures oscillate narrowly, and the position has decreased. The spot market is stable, but the demand is weak, and there is no clear upward or downward driver in the short - term. The long - term fundamentals are weak [19] - **Logs**: Logs follow the market and oscillate upwards, maintaining an oscillation around 800 yuan. The spot price is stable, and the inventory has decreased. The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation, and the fundamentals have improved marginally [20] 3.2 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) show different trends. The specialty index and industrial products index have increased, and the agricultural products index has a daily increase of 0.65%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.81%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.97%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.39% [179][181]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 15.5 to close at 1058.25 cents per bushel, a 1.49% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 49 to close at 3088 yuan per ton, a 1.56% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 30 to close at 2950 yuan per ton, a 1.01% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 3 to close at 2543 yuan per ton, a 0.12% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 20 to close at 2550 yuan per ton, a 0.79% increase [4][7]. - U.S. soybeans fluctuated and rose, mainly driven by U.S. soybean oil. The exemption volume of biofuels for small refineries announced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was lower than expected, boosting the expected growth of biodiesel demand. Soybean meal fluctuated and declined during the week, mainly due to market news that imported reserve soybeans will be auctioned and released in November to ease the tight supply situation, leading to a reduction of long - position funds and a cooling of sentiment [4][7]. - The final report of the 2025 ProFarmer survey shows that since the number of soybean pods per unit sample in most production areas is higher than the same period last year, the expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. The final yield is estimated to be 53 bushels per acre, lower than the 53.6 bushels per acre in the August USDA report. The precipitation in mid - to late August was lower than the average, so attention should still be paid to weather changes and the adjustment of September report data. The first shipment of Argentine soybean meal was diverted to other areas due to quality problems. There are expectations that imported reserve soybeans in China will be released in November, easing the expectation of tight supply in the distant future. However, short - term U.S. soybean purchases may be difficult to start, which supports the far - month contracts. After imposing policies on Canadian rapeseed imports, the import cost has increased. Last week, it was reported that COFCO restarted Australian rapeseed purchases since 2020, with a shipping date of November. Overall, short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [4][12]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract rose 15.5 to 1058.25 cents per bushel, a 1.49% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose 1 to 490 dollars per ton, a 0.20% increase; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans rose 14 to 470 dollars per ton, a 3.07% increase; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased 46.71 to - 63.99 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 49 to 3088 yuan per ton, a 1.56% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 3 to 2543 yuan per ton, a 0.12% decrease; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 46 to 545 yuan per ton; the East China spot price of soybean meal fell 20 to 3000 yuan per ton, a 0.66% decrease; the South China spot price of soybean meal fell 30 to 2950 yuan per ton, a 1.01% decrease; the South China spot - futures price difference increased 19 to - 138 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybeans fluctuated and rose due to the boost of U.S. soybean oil, while soybean meal fluctuated and declined due to the expected release of imported reserve soybeans in November [4][7]. - The ProFarmer survey shows high pod numbers in most U.S. soybean - producing areas, with a final yield estimate of 53 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA report. The U.S. soybean excellent - good rate as of August 17 was 68%, the flowering rate was 95%, and the pod - setting rate was 82%. About 9% of the planting area was affected by drought as of August 19, and future precipitation is expected to be lower than average [8][9]. - As of August 14, the current - market - year net export sales of U.S. soybeans were - 0.6 million tons, and the cumulative export sales in the 2024/2025 season reached 51.06 million tons, completing the USDA target. The net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 1.143 million tons, with cumulative sales of 5.86 million tons, and China has not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans [9]. - As of August 15, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit was 2.62 dollars per bushel, the 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 287.98 dollars per short - ton, the soybean oil truck quote in Illinois was 53.49 cents per pound, and the average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.39 dollars per bushel [10]. - Brazil's soybean export volume in August is expected to reach 8.9 million tons, and the soybean meal export volume is expected to reach 2.33 million tons [10]. - As of August 15, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.804 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 5.7562 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 8.926 million tons. As of August 22, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 168,680 tons, the daily average pick - up volume was 194,040 tons, the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.27 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 8.51 days [11]. Industry News - Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of August reached 5.17167139 million tons, with a daily average export volume 29% higher than that of August last year [13]. - As of August 10, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased 864.4% to 254,600 tons compared with the previous week. From August 1 to August 10, 2025, Canada's rapeseed export volume was 254,600 tons, a 33.6% decrease compared with the same period last year, and the commercial inventory was 940,200 tons [13]. - The expansion of Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/2026 season will be the smallest in recent years. Analysts' forecasts for the planting area growth range from 1.2% to 2.9%, and the production forecasts range from 166.56 million tons to 178.2 million tons [14]. - Brazil's competition management agency plans to investigate the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan", and the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters will appeal [15]. - Australia's rapeseed exports in June 2025 decreased significantly to 102,064 tons, and monthly exports are unlikely to exceed 150,000 tons before November [15]. - As of August 17, the EU's palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports in the 2025/2026 season decreased compared with last year [16]. - The U.S. Soybean Association urged the Trump administration to reopen the Chinese market [16]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the trends of U.S. soybean contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF prices, ocean freight, RMB exchange rates, regional crushing profits, management funds' net positions in CBOT, soybean meal contract trends, regional soybean meal spot prices, etc. [18][20][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [7] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [8] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating Bearish [9] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating [14] - Sugar: Oscillating [15] - Pulp: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating Bearish [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors, and it is likely to operate strongly in the near future under the stabilization of market sentiment [2][3][7]. - The protein meal market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with the far - month contracts expected to strengthen [8]. - The corn/starch market is currently in a weak state, with short - term uncertainties in old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [9][10]. - The live pig market presents a situation of "weak reality + strong expectation", with high inventory pressure in the short - term and potential supply reduction in the long - term [10]. - The natural rubber market rebounds due to some speculative sentiment, and the short - term performance is expected to follow the macro - wide fluctuations [10][12]. - The synthetic rubber market is supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, and it is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [13]. - The cotton market returns to fundamental trading, with the price expected to oscillate within a certain range [14]. - The sugar market is under downward pressure due to the increasing supply pressure [15]. - The pulp market remains weak, and the strategy is to pay attention to the reverse spread during the decline [16]. - The log market has limited fundamental changes and is mainly treated within a range [17][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Affected by factors such as short - covering, US policy uncertainty, OPEC+ production increase, good growth of US soybeans, and the production and inventory situation of palm oil and rapeseed oil [2][7]. - **Outlook**: It is likely to operate strongly in the near future, and attention should be paid to the performance of upper technical resistance [3][7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the good rate of US soybeans is 69%, and there are still weather risks. Domestically, the short - term supply is sufficient, and there may be a supply gap in the long - term [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot and basis may oscillate at a low level, and the far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Logic**: The supply side has inventory digestion and import auction issues, and the demand side has low acceptance of high - priced grains. The new crop situation is normal [9][10]. - **Outlook**: There are uncertainties in short - term old crop de - stocking, and there is a downward trend after new crop listing [10]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Logic**: The supply is strong in the short, medium, and long - term, and the demand is weak. The policy has a guiding effect on capacity reduction [10]. - **Outlook**: The market presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention should be paid to reverse spread strategies [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Driven by some speculative sentiment, the short - term fundamentals have no major contradictions [10][12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term performance follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, the raw material market is in a weak downward trend [13]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level. The price oscillates within a certain range [14]. - **Outlook**: The single - side oscillates, and the range operation is recommended. The reverse spread of the monthly difference is stopped profit at the stage [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term supply pressure increases [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the long - term, and the short - term strategy is to short on rebounds [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The supply pressure of hardwood pulp is high, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: The recent fluctuations follow the macro - situation, and it is expected to oscillate widely [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Logic**: The cost increases, the supply pressure eases, and there are both long and short factors in the market [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals change little, and it is mainly operated within the range of 800 - 850 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 40 to close at 4,276 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.93%; the palm oil 09 contract fell 28 to close at 8,936 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.31%; the soybean oil 09 contract fell 16 to close at 8,144 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.2%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 129 to close at 9,457 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.35%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.34 to close at 55.92 cents/pound, an increase of 0.61%; the ICE canola active contract rose 1 to close at 699.9 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.14% [3][6]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated slightly lower, with rapeseed oil performing the weakest. The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, low ending inventory, and potential Indian import demand support palm oil. The continuous expansion of US crushing capacity and expected increase in biodiesel demand boost the soybean oil market. The good rapeseed production prospects in Canada and the EU suppress rapeseed oil. Malaysian palm oil production continued to increase in July, with exports weakening month - on - month, limiting the space for continuous rise, and more long - position funds taking profits, resulting in an overall volatile operation [3][6]. - Macroscopically, after the US reached trade agreements with Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan and other countries, it difficultly reached a tariff agreement with the EU, alleviating market concerns about trade sentiment. China and the US will hold economic and trade negotiations in Sweden. The US stock market fluctuated strongly, the US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices fluctuated narrowly. Fundamentally, although supported by the medium - and long - term growth expectations of biodiesel demand in Indonesia and the US, the increasing production of Malaysian palm oil and weakening demand may limit the increase in the short term. Palm oil may fluctuate at a high level in the short term [3][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The report presents the prices, price changes, and price change rates of multiple contracts (CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil) from July 18th to July 25th, as well as the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions and their changes [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Production Data**: According to UOB, as of July 20th, Malaysian palm oil production is expected to increase by 5 - 9%. MPOA data shows that from July 1 - 20th, production increased by 11.24% compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data shows that from July 1 - 20th, 2025, the fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 7.03%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.16%, and palm oil production increased by 6.19% [7]. - **Export Data**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25th decreased by 9.2% compared to the same period last month. AmSpec data shows a 15.22% month - on - month decrease. SGS data shows a 35.99% decrease in exports from July 1 - 20th compared to the same period last month. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased significantly in May and June, with exports to India and China rising strongly. MPOB expects Malaysia's palm oil production and exports to increase in 2025, while GAPKI expects Indonesia's exports to decline [8][9]. - **Inventory and Demand Data**: As of July 18th, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions increased. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased slightly. Although there is long - term support from biodiesel demand in Indonesia and the US, the increasing production and weakening demand of Malaysian palm oil may limit price increases in the short term [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The FAO's "2025 - 34 Agricultural Outlook" points out that due to sustainability issues and the aging of oil palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia, the growth rate of global palm oil production is expected to slow, with a projected annual growth rate of 0.8% [11]. - India has become Malaysia's largest importer of oil palm seeds, and its demand for Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly. MPOC expects the price of crude palm oil to be between 4,100 - 4,300 ringgit next month, and India is expected to import about 2.9 million tons of palm oil in the third quarter to meet festival demand [11][12]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance expects an increase in palm oil product exports to the EU in the second half of 2025, as the IEU - CEPA agreement and the US tariff reduction policy will create opportunities for Indonesian exports [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in futures and spot markets, as well as the production, exports, inventory, and import profits of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [13][18][21] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating" for most products, "oscillating and declining" for corn and starch, and "oscillating weakly" for logs [5][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most agricultural products are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with different influencing factors for each product. The market is affected by various factors such as weather, supply and demand, trade relations, and macro - economic conditions [5][6][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The growth of US soybeans is good, and market sentiment has weakened. - **Logic**: As of July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than expected. The US foreign trade tension has increased, and the US dollar rose on Monday. The expected increase in US biodiesel demand for US soybean oil and the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio in Brazil are positive factors. However, the large arrival volume of imported soybeans in China and the expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia are negative factors. - **Outlook**: The oil market is expected to continue to oscillate and differentiate in the near future [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **View**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and US soybeans are weaker than Dalian soybean meal. - **Logic**: International trade tensions are high. US soybeans are growing smoothly, but the export prospects are worrying. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. In China, the supply pressure dominates the weakness of the spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. - **Outlook**: The domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. In the short - term, it will oscillate within a range, and in the long - term, it will be bullish [6]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Pay attention to the risk of a periodic rebound. - **Logic**: The supply of ports and deep - processing enterprises has decreased slightly. The futures price rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. The cumulative auction volume of imported corn is 137 million tons, and the transaction volume is about 82 million tons. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term [7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand are stable, and pig prices oscillate. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are still being sold off, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded. The planned slaughter volume of group farms in July has decreased. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets from January to May 2025 has increased, and the slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. - **Outlook**: The reform expectation on the supply side boosts the sentiment of pig futures. The price is expected to oscillate, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: It runs oscillating and strongly. - **Logic**: It is affected by capital sentiment at night and then adjusts with the market during the day. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment. The supply in Asian producing areas is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand from tire enterprises has recovered. - **Outlook**: It may follow the overall commodity fluctuations before the fundamental situation provides guidance [11][13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price oscillates within a range. - **Logic**: It follows the movement of natural rubber and the overall commodity market, but the amplitude is limited. There is no obvious upward driving force, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement of butadiene trading. - **Outlook**: It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to device changes [14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices fluctuate within a narrow range. - **Logic**: According to the USDA's static balance sheet for the 25/26 season, the global, Chinese, and US cotton markets are all loose. The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production and the weak demand in the off - season are negative factors. However, the low inventory before the new cotton is listed provides support. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. There is a risk of price decline when a large amount of new cotton is listed [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Pay attention to import changes. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are weak and under downward pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazil's sugar production and the high sales - to - production ratio in China support the price, but the increase in Brazil's production and exports and China's imports will increase the supply pressure. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly; in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The macro - environment dominates the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. - **Logic**: The futures price rises with the macro - atmosphere. The supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the upward driving force comes from the macro - environment. The low US dollar price, high overseas pulp mill inventory, and weak downstream demand limit the upward space. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate due to the warm macro - atmosphere, weak supply - demand guidance, and low absolute valuation [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The outbound volume has declined, and the inventory has increased. - **Logic**: The new - week outbound volume of logs has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The spot price is weak due to the impact of deliverable goods. The cost of both buyers and sellers has increased during the 07 delivery. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction rhythm is slow. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly around the delivery cost in the short - term [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions variety data monitoring for oils and fats, corn and starch, pigs, cotton and yarn, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text.