| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国领导人在社交媒体称将在不久后与中方会面，大豆会是主要议题，这点燃了美 | | | | 国大豆农民对出口销售的期待。国内方面，全国主要油厂豆粕成交 22.38 万吨，较 | | 豆粕 | 短线震荡 | 前一交易日增 18.57 万吨，开机方面，今日全国动态全样本油厂开机率为 44.47%， | | ★ | | 较前一日下降 10.71%。昨日豆粕高开走低。美豆收获上市中美谈判声音仍存，以 | | | | 及巴西大豆种植天气干旱，多空因素交织下，有震荡整理要求，在中美谈判开启前， | | | | 豆粕调整空间有限。关注中美贸易后续进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线震荡 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | | | 印尼政府考虑设定汽油中的生物乙醇的强制含量标准为 10%，试图扩大使用由棕榈 | | | | 油和甘蔗制成的 ...

| 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2928 | 2933 | -2 | -0. 17% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3018. 57 | 3014. 29 | 4. 28 | 0. 14% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 2940 | 2940 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3287.5 | 3287.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2207.5 | 2213. 75 | -6. 25 | -0. 28% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3575 | 3625 | -50 | -1. 38% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1433. 33 | 1433. 33 | 0 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main focus in the fourth quarter remains on the US biofuel policy and China-US/China-Canada relations, with policy impacts far outweighing fundamentals. After policies are gradually implemented, long opportunities mainly in palm oil are favored [5]. - The US is the biggest variable in the international oil market in the fourth quarter. The biofuel policy, especially the blending targets for 2026 - 27, as well as the redistribution plan for small refineries and the RINs coefficient for imported raw materials, will directly affect US soybean oil demand and the international oil price center [101]. - Palm oil will be influenced by US soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and it has its own drivers. The supply side may face early - onset production cuts and potential extreme rainfall due to La Nina, while the demand side focuses on Indonesia's B40 plan and potential B50 policies [102]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Market Review - Internationally, Malaysian palm oil (MPO) outperformed US soybean oil in the third quarter. US soybean oil prices fluctuated around policy expectations and market rumors, and dropped below 50 cents/pound at the end of September. MPO remained at a high level supported by supply - demand patterns and US soybean oil prices [11]. - Domestically, the three major oils showed an upward trend with significant differences in strength. Palm oil followed the international market, while soybean and rapeseed oils were more affected by policies. Palm oil had a supply - demand weak situation, soybean oil had a strong de - stocking expectation but was still accumulating inventory, and rapeseed oil had a slow de - stocking speed due to high inventory and weak consumption [14]. 3.2 International Market Outlook 3.2.1 North and South America - **US**: - The planting and harvested areas of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly. Although the current yield per acre is ideal, there is still a possibility of a decline due to insufficient rainfall [19]. - The biofuel policy is beneficial to US soybean crushing demand, but the room for further significant increases in crushing is limited. The proportion of soybean oil in biofuel raw materials has rebounded, and the 45Z subsidy and increased RVO obligations from 2026 will further boost soybean oil demand [22][25]. - There is a large divergence in the market regarding the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions. EPA's proposed re - allocation has caused dissatisfaction among refineries [38]. - After the signing of the Big and Beautiful Act, the 45Z clean fuel tax credit has become law, which will lead to a substitution of a large part of UCO and tallow demand by North - American sourced soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and corn oil [42]. - If the EPA's proposed blending targets are met, there will be a supply gap in US soybean oil in 2026, which can only be filled by increasing imports. However, due to policy uncertainties, significant growth in soybean oil consumption in the fourth quarter is unlikely [44]. - **Canada**: - The final production forecast of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is 20.1 million tons. China's anti - dumping tax on Canadian rapeseed is negative for its price, but the impact will be mitigated by expanded domestic crushing capacity and alternative export markets. Domestic crushing is expected to increase slightly, while exports will decline to 7 million tons [47]. - The price difference between European and Canadian rapeseed makes the EU have an incentive to import Canadian rapeseed. The improvement in domestic rapeseed crushing margins and the support for biofuel development offset the impact of reduced Chinese purchases [51]. 3.2.2 Asia - **Malaysian Palm Oil (MPO)**: - As of the third quarter, MPO had sufficient inventory, but production cuts may start earlier in September due to weather conditions. In the fourth quarter, the probability of La Nina increases, and there is a risk of floods and over - expected production cuts [53][70]. - MPO's domestic demand is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, mainly due to potential CPO exports as POME to the EU and the support of biodiesel consumption [59]. - In terms of demand, MPO exports may recover slightly in the fourth quarter, with a peak in October. If US soybean oil can support the global soybean oil price center, palm oil may still be the preferred choice for countries like India [73]. - The pressure on MPO to accumulate inventory has passed, and it is expected to start de - stocking in September - October and accelerate the process in the fourth quarter [76]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil (IPO)**: - IPO production has recovered well this year, but the potential impact of the government's crackdown on illegal plantations remains. The transfer of plantation management may lead to supply uncertainties [79]. - It is difficult to achieve both high exports and high inventory in Indonesia. Domestic demand is more rigid, and the B40 plan needs to catch up in the fourth quarter. The inventory is expected to remain at around 2 million tons [83]. - The biodiesel industry in Indonesia is suffering serious losses, but it has little impact on actual blending. As of July 16, 2025, the B40 plan completion rate was about 47.51%. To complete the plan, there is still a large amount of remaining allocation and palm oil consumption required [90][91]. - **India**: - Before the Diwali festival, India's vegetable oil inventory is still low. In August, palm oil imports increased significantly, while soybean oil imports decreased. The total edible oil imports reached a 13 - month high [94]. - After replenishing inventory from June - August, India still has a need to continue purchasing and accumulating inventory. In the fourth quarter, India is expected to mainly purchase palm oil and South American soybean oil, with palm oil imports showing a trend of high in the early part and low in the late part [97][100]. 3.3 Domestic Market Outlook - **Palm Oil**: - In the fourth quarter, domestic palm oil is expected to maintain a supply - demand weak situation, following the international market. The narrowing import profit margin has led to an increase in purchases, and the inventory has reached a relatively high level, which is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [104][106]. - **Soybean Oil**: - In the third quarter, domestic soybean oil inventory accumulated rapidly due to a large amount of soybean arrivals and weak consumption. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to gradually de - stock, but inventory may still accumulate until the middle and late fourth quarter and then turn to de - stocking. Although exports have increased significantly, the possibility of large - scale exports continuing is low after India's备货 ends [111][134]. - If there is no reconciliation between China and the US and no purchase of US soybeans, there may be a shortage of soybean oil in the first quarter of next year [117]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - Currently, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is extremely high, especially after the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The import of rapeseed has decreased significantly, and the oil mill's rapeseed intake has shrunk year - on - year. The开机 rate is expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter [120][125]. - The high price of rapeseed oil has led to low consumption, and it has been mostly replaced by soybean oil. Near the Double Festival, demand is expected to improve slightly [128]. - Russia has become the main source of China's rapeseed oil imports. Although imports can supplement the short - term supply, they cannot fully make up for the long - term gap caused by the lack of Canadian rapeseed [131]. 3.4 Strategies and Summary - The core is the US biofuel policy, which affects the global oil price center. Before the policy is determined, the market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 50 - 60 cents/pound [137]. - **Palm Oil**: - In the fourth quarter, palm oil is driven by supply and biodiesel. It is expected that Indonesia's B40 plan can be successfully completed, and domestic demand will increase. After the US biofuel policy is settled, palm oil prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategies are to go long on the palm oil 01 contract, conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads, and shrink the soybean - palm oil 01 contract price difference [137]. - **Soybean Oil**: - The current situation of the soybean oil market is weak, and it is difficult to see de - stocking in the short term. The inventory pressure may ease in the second half of the fourth quarter, but supply shortages are unlikely to occur. The recommended strategy is to shrink the soybean - palm oil 01 contract price difference [137]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - The spot supply of rapeseed oil is relatively sufficient, but the supply gap of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is highly certain, and the market sentiment for going long is better than that of soybean oil. The recommended strategies are to go long on the rapeseed oil 01 contract and conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads [137].

策略参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 9 月 23 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期有关于中美贸易关系前景的任何消息都成为市场情绪的助推剂。国内豆类产业链依然疲弱， 油厂胀库压力依然存在，豆粕负基差格局持续。关注双节前下游备货节奏和中美贸易进展，以及进口买船 节奏的变化。短期豆粕期价仍将偏弱运行。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating downward [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Palm Oil: Oscillating [1] - Eggs: Oscillating and slightly bullish [1][2] - Pigs: Oscillating and slightly bearish [2] Core Viewpoints - Corn futures' November contract shows a technical rebound after continuous decline, with the spot market facing increased pressure from new corn listings. Short - term attention is on whether the contract can break through the price low in mid - August, and the medium - term operation follows a bearish idea [1]. - CBOT soybean meal and soybean prices decline due to a stronger dollar and US harvest pressure. Domestic two - meal prices continue to fall, and the strategy is to participate in the short - term [1]. - BMD palm oil falls following the surrounding market. The domestic oil market is weak, and the strategy is to bet on increased volatility [1]. - The egg futures' 2511 contract oscillates with a slight rebound at the end of the session. The spot price corrects after a continuous rebound. The supply - side pressure on egg prices may ease in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [1][2]. - The pig futures' 2511 contract continues to decline. The spot price also drops, and the demand is weak. In the short term, the pig price may remain weak, but it may be supported by increased demand as the temperature drops [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: The November contract rebounds technically after a continuous decline. The spot market in the production area expects an increase in new corn listings after mid - September, and the price in the Liaoning production area weakens. In the North China region, the price continues to be weak, and the price in the sales area is temporarily stable. The short - term is to beware of a rebound after a sharp decline, and the medium - term is bearish [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fall due to a stronger dollar and harvest pressure. The export sales of US soybeans meet expectations, and domestic two - meal prices reach a one - and - a - half - month low. The strategy is short - term participation [1]. - **Palm Oil**: BMD palm oil falls following the surrounding market. High - frequency data shows a decrease in exports. The domestic oil market is weak, and the strategy is to bet on increased volatility [1]. - **Eggs**: The 2511 contract oscillates with a slight rebound, and the spot price corrects after a continuous rebound. The supply - side pressure on egg prices may ease in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The 2511 contract continues to decline, and the spot price drops. The demand is weak, and the short - term pig price may remain weak. It may be supported by increased demand as the temperature drops [2]. Market Information - From September 14th to 17th, Liu Huanxin led a team to investigate grain and material reserve work in Heilongjiang, emphasizing the importance of grain storage and logistics facilities projects [3]. - Zhengshang Institute cancels the designated delivery warehouse qualification of Orient Group Grain and Oil Food Co., Ltd. for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal [3]. - In August, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; soybean oil imports were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 113.9%; rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7% [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: It includes the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][6][7][11][15] - **Contract Basis**: It includes the basis of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [13][14][17][18][24] Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and achievements [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with rich experience and many honors [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant experience and honors [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term trends of major agricultural futures in the commodity market, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, are mainly in a state of shock, with a short - term weakening tendency [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The expectation of improved Sino - US trade may falsify the long - term supply gap. The domestic soybean market trading logic revolves around the weak industrial chain, with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern for soybean meal. Also, factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand affect its price [5][7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [8][7]. - **Core Logic**: The EPA's biofuel proposal has high uncertainty within 45 days. The past actions of President Trump and the impact of Sino - US trade prospects on the soybean market also affect soybean oil. Additionally, factors like US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory play roles [8][7]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [9][7]. - **Core Logic**: Although rainfall in East Malaysia may disrupt supply in the short - term and export data is stable, the peak production season in the producing areas restricts upward movement. Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough may strengthen long - term demand support. In the domestic market, import profit is inverted, near - month arrivals are high, downstream demand is limited, and inventory is increasing [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view for the agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soybean meal and palm oil, is "oscillating weakly" in the short - term and "oscillating" in the medium - term [5][7]. - For soybean meal, the market is affected by the prospects of Sino - US trade relations and a weak domestic fundamental situation with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a negative basis pattern [5]. - For palm oil, the short - term market is driven by sentiment. Although there are factors like rainfall in East Malaysia and stable export data, the peak production period in the producing areas restricts the upside. The long - term demand may be supported by Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Day - to - day View**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5] - **Reference View**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: The market is sensitive to changes in Sino - US trade relations. Domestically, the trading logic has shifted to a weak fundamental situation with oil mills having inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern, leading to a weak short - term futures price [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Day - to - day View**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7] - **Reference View**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: After the supplementary increase in Malaysian palm oil prices, the increase has narrowed. Although rainfall in East Malaysia may disrupt supply in the short - term and export data is stable, the peak production period in the producing areas restricts the upside. Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough may support long - term demand. The short - term market is driven by sentiment, resulting in high - level oscillations of palm oil futures prices [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction affecting the price trend of oils and fats is the supply - demand game in the origin under policy guidance. Domestic drivers are limited, and future price movements rely on favorable factors from the origin. The short - term market may maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [2][3]. - It is not recommended to short oils and fats due to obvious international market support. There may be an opportunity to focus on the long - P1 short - P5 spread trading of palm oil [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - **Palm oil**: Drought in the first half of the year led to an early entry into the production - reduction period in the origin. Malaysia's inventory pressure is expected to ease, while Indonesia's B40 policy and slow production recovery limit export growth, with subsequent supply expected to be tight. India's demand supports global palm oil consumption [2]. - **Soybean oil**: The US biodiesel policy supports US soybean crushing. The year - on - year decline in supply tightens the US soybean balance sheet. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations may lead to a potential shortage in China's soybean imports [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: There is limited speculation on origin weather recently. Sino - Canadian relations are the focus, but rapeseed oil supply can be supplemented through other channels, and the opening of the Australian rapeseed import window may make up for part of the Canadian rapeseed shortfall [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestion - **Basis strategy**: Consider using accumulated option purchases to reduce basis pricing risks in combination with the oscillation range, and view the short - term basis as weakening [22]. - **Spread strategy**: Consider a long - P1 short - P5 spread trading when the P1 - 5 spread is in the range of (200, 230) [22]. - **Hedging and arbitrage strategy**: Short the soybean - palm oil 2601 spread when it is in the range of (- 1040, - 940) [22]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestion - Price range forecasts for monthly oils and fats: soybean oil 8200 - 9000, rapeseed oil 9700 - 10300, palm oil 9200 - 9900 [25]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides current price, price change, and other data for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as information on inter - month and inter - variety spreads [25][26][27][28]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Floods in Sabah, Malaysia, and multiple institutions indicating that Malaysia will enter the production - reduction period early; SPPOMA's production data showing a month - on - month decline [34][36]. - **Negative information**: MPOB report showing lower - than - expected exports; USDA's US soybean yield being higher than expected; Some state legislators opposing the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions [34]. - **Spot trading information**: Palm oil trading improved slightly, soybean oil trading declined, and rapeseed oil had basically no trading [31]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 15: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data [36]. - September 20: CFTC agricultural product position report [38]. - High - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil [38]. - Progress on the decision regarding the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions in the US [38]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: Palm oil showed a pattern of oscillating downward and then stabilizing and rebounding this week. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil generally followed palm oil. Palm oil's important profit - making positions were cautious, with price fluctuations narrowing and open interest decreasing. Soybean oil's open interest decreased overall but stabilized recently. Rapeseed oil prices rose, open interest increased significantly, and the basis was small [36]. - **Spread structure**: The near - month term structure of oils and fats was steeper this week. The P1 - 5 and Y1 - 5 spreads were mainly in a consolidation state, while the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread strengthened significantly. Oils and fats remained in a backwardation structure [38][39]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of major oils and fats contracts was mainly in a consolidation state this week, and the basis was expected to remain weak in the short term due to high domestic inventory and weak downstream demand [43]. - **Inter - variety spread structure**: The rapeseed - palm oil 01 and rapeseed - soybean oil 01 spreads strengthened this week, while the soybean - palm oil spread continued to decline [45]. - **Foreign market**: The domestic market mainly followed the foreign market's oscillation and consolidation. CBOT soybean oil management funds reduced their net positions, while producers/ traders/ processors/ users slightly increased their positions [47]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - The POGO spread remains at a high level, and the BOHO spread, although declining, is still positive, indicating high production costs for bio - fuels [50]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the import profit inversion has slightly narrowed, but due to high inventory and general domestic demand, the attitude towards new ship purchases is expected to be cautious [52]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Malaysia's palm oil is expected to enter the production - reduction season earlier. The inventory pressure will be further relieved, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline [54]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm oil**: Trade - purchase willingness is low, with monthly purchases of about 200,000 tons in September and October. Supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and inventory is expected to further decline [55]. - **Soybean oil**: Soybean arrivals in September and October are still high, with a risk of raw - material overstocking. The soybean crushing rate is expected to maintain at 50% - 60% in the fourth quarter, but soybean oil supply may decrease significantly from December [55]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils and fats is large, and demand is weak. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may drive catering demand, overall terminal demand is still expected to be weaker than last year [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides views on the futures of two agricultural products: soymeal and palm oil. For soymeal, the short - term view is "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "oscillating". For palm oil, both the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", with an "oscillating weakly" intraday view [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: The expected high yield of US soybeans is strengthening, and export demand is decreasing, putting short - term pressure on US soybean futures prices. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade, the impact on domestic soybeans is limited, and the divergence between domestic and international soybean futures prices will continue. The domestic market's trading logic has shifted to the weak industrial chain, with continuous accumulation of soymeal inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern, causing short - term weakness in soymeal futures prices [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: As the benchmark of the oil market, when other varieties fluctuate around trade topics, the palm oil industrial chain environment has weakened. Pay attention to the impact of weather - related factors. In the short term, market sentiment drives the market, and palm oil futures prices are oscillating weakly [7].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils for September 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The beans market is still in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the divergence in the prices of domestic and foreign beans futures will continue. Short - term soybean meal futures prices will continue to fluctuate, and the impact of the US Department of Agriculture report should be noted [5] - The pressure on Malaysian palm oil inventory has been released as expected, and the linkage effect of the pressure on Malaysian palm oil prices on domestic palm oil futures prices is evident. After the short - term market pressure is released, there is not a strong driving force for further decline. Palm oil futures prices will still fluctuate around energy attributes and industrial changes, and the short - term rebound of palm oil futures prices will continue [8] Group 4: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [7] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Bio - diesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [7] Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7] - **Core Logic**: US bio - fuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7]