Summary of Key Points from Lithium Carbonate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the lithium carbonate market, specifically its pricing, supply-demand dynamics, and market sentiment for 2026 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Forecasts**: - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to range between 200,000 to 250,000 CNY/ton in Q2 2026, with an annual average of approximately 180,000 to 200,000 CNY/ton. A price drop is anticipated in the second half of the year as supply improves [1][3]. - **Global Battery Demand**: - Total global battery demand is projected to be around 1,800 to 1,900 GWh in 2026, requiring approximately 120,000 to 130,000 tons of lithium carbonate. Energy storage demand is expected to increase by 50% year-on-year, reaching 350 to 400 GWh [1][3]. - **Production and Pricing Trends**: - Battery cell manufacturers are increasing production by over 10% in Q2, with the price of 314Ah energy storage cells rising to 0.4 CNY/Wh, translating to an electricity cost of about 400 CNY [1][2]. - The price of power batteries is around 650 CNY/kWh, with the corresponding lithium carbonate price estimated at 165,000 CNY/ton [2]. - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: - Domestic refining plants rely heavily on imported spodumene and mica, with Zimbabwe's export restrictions expected to impact supply in April. However, Nigeria and Mali's combined production can offset these disruptions [1][2][3]. - The pricing mechanism has shifted to shorter contract periods, now typically signed monthly, with smelters referencing third-party prices at a discount of 92% to 95% [1][6]. - **Inventory Trends**: - Recent data indicates a shift from inventory depletion to accumulation, primarily among traders and downstream manufacturers, reflecting a cautious market sentiment amid rising prices [7]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment and Price Divergence**: - There is a notable divergence in market sentiment regarding future price trends, with some stakeholders optimistic about prices stabilizing between 170,000 to 200,000 CNY/ton, while others express concerns about cost pressures if prices exceed 200,000 CNY/ton [2][4]. - **Impact of Geopolitical Factors**: - Geopolitical tensions and energy shortages are influencing market psychology, potentially affecting demand for energy storage solutions [4][5]. - **Long-term Supply Considerations**: - The long-term impact of supply disruptions from regions like Zimbabwe and Australia is expected to be less severe than market fears suggest, as other countries like Nigeria and Mali can compensate for lost output [10]. - **New Projects and Market Supply**: - New lithium projects in regions like Xinjiang and Sichuan are expected to have limited impact on overall market supply due to high costs and logistical challenges [11]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - The current hedging strategies in the lithium carbonate market involve a mix of long-term contracts and spot market transactions, with larger firms typically securing supplies through long-term agreements [12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the lithium carbonate market, highlighting the anticipated trends, challenges, and strategic considerations for stakeholders in the industry.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks, as the supply is supported by the export ban in Zimbabwe and upstream reluctance to sell, but the demand is weak due to the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream procurement, and the inventory reduction provides limited support while macro - geopolitical risks suppress market sentiment [3][57] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 20, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose slightly to 143,860 yuan/ton, a 0.88% increase from the previous day, continuing the recent volatile trend. The basis weakened significantly to 6,140 yuan/ton, narrowing by 7,260 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 54.18% [1][53] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position volume shrank by 2.18% to 276,578 lots, a decrease of 6,167 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume shrank by 10.5% to 258,276 lots, a decrease of 30,295 lots from the previous day, indicating a significant decline in trading activity [1][54] 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: On March 20, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate rose slightly to 16,235 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase from the previous day, while the price of lepidolite concentrate dropped significantly by 6.01% to 8,600 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 73.46%. The export ban on lithium mines in Zimbabwe has not been lifted, and the import volume of spodumene fluctuated from January to February, increasing the reluctance of upstream lithium salt plants to sell and reducing the willingness to sell single orders, constraining the supply [2][55] - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials generally declined. On March 20, 2026, the price of power ternary materials dropped by 0.55% to 182,250 yuan/ton, and the price of power lithium iron phosphate dropped by 1.57% to 53,290 yuan/ton. The cell prices were basically stable, with only the square lithium iron phosphate cell rising slightly by 1.08%. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, in the first half of March, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 28% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 19% year - on - year. The demand was weak, and the procurement rhythm of downstream material plants slowed down, with only a few low - inventory enterprises maintaining rigid demand replenishment [2][55] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 0.09% to 98,873 physical tons, a decrease of 86 tons from the previous week, continuing the inventory reduction trend. The overall inventory pressure in the market was relieved, and the upstream reluctance to sell and the downstream inventory preparation until early April led to a shortage of circulating goods [2][56] 1.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The supply side is supported by the Zimbabwe export ban and upstream reluctance to sell, but the cost drive is weakened by the decline in lepidolite price and import fluctuations. The demand side remains weak due to the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream procurement, and the macro - geopolitical risks (such as the Middle East situation) suppress market sentiment. The slight inventory reduction provides limited support, but there is a lack of strong unilateral drive. Overall, the price will fluctuate within the current range, with the upside limited by insufficient demand and the downside buffered by supply constraints [3][57] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Various price data of lithium - related products on March 20, 2026, are provided, including the main contract of lithium carbonate, basis, position, trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate market price, spodumene concentrate market price, lepidolite concentrate market price, lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, power lithium iron phosphate, etc., along with their price changes and rates compared with the previous day or previous week [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.1 Spot Market Quotation - On March 20, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot index continued to decline. The futures market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The main contract once reached 148,000 yuan/ton after the opening, and the highest in the noon reached over 150,000 yuan/ton, then fell under pressure and closed at around 144,000 yuan/ton. As of the close, the position volume decreased by about 6,200 lots compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, after the downstream material plants' concentrated replenishment the previous day, the procurement rhythm slowed down significantly today. Some enterprises' raw material inventories have been prepared until early April, and only a few low - inventory enterprises maintained rigid demand and purchased at low prices. Upstream lithium salt plants were less willing to sell single orders due to the continuous decline in prices, and some manufacturers still insisted on quotes above 160,000 yuan/ton. The overall trading activity in the market decreased compared with the previous trading day. At the macro level, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased and the crude oil price fluctuated, leading to a decline in market risk preference and overall pressure on the industrial metal sector. On the supply side, the export ban on lithium mines in Zimbabwe has not been lifted, providing bottom - support for the price. In general, in the short term, the lithium carbonate price may maintain a wide - range volatile pattern under the game between bearish macro sentiment and supply - side constraints [6] 3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data from the Passenger Car Association on March 18, from March 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 285,000 units, a 28% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in March last year, and a 36% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1.345 million units, a 26% year - on - year decrease. From March 1 - 15, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers were 325,000 units, a 19% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in March last year, and a 47% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 1.914 million units, a 10% year - on - year decrease [7] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Multiple data charts are provided, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [8][10][12][14][16][18][20][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 12, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 dropped 1.79% to 156,980 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 158,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate dropped by 1,250 yuan/ton to 154,500 yuan/ton, and the battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell by 1,500 yuan/ton to 150,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 284 tons to 36,455 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased by 836 tons to 23,426 tons, and the domestic production in March is expected to increase by 28% month-on-month to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in March is expected to increase by 19% month-on-month to 84,360 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase by 24% month-on-month to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 415 tons to 98,958 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 1,890 tons to 45,647 tons, other links decreasing by 1,120 tons to 37,020 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 1,185 tons to 16,291 tons [3]. - From the production schedule in March, the weekly de-stocking level basically met expectations. The decline in absolute quantity is one of the core reasons for price support. The decrease in African shipments is partially offset by the increase in shipments from other regions. Due to the lag in demand data, the terminal performance is under great pressure, which is difficult to effectively boost the upstream battery sector. As it gradually enters April, it is at the end of the phased export rush. Therefore, there is still support below the price. A more definite positive factor is needed to stimulate the previous high, but it is still possible to consider bottom - fishing. Attention should also be paid to the situation in Zimbabwe [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 156,980 yuan/ton, up 1,940 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 150,000 yuan/ton, down 5,000 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,195 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 5,050 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li₂O: 6% - 7%) was 12,875 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) was 14,000 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 158,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 154,500 yuan/ton, down 1,250 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 150,500 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 157,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 138,550 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 18.45 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price was 111,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 3,500 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 7,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price spread of CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 23,271 yuan/ton, up 1,577 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials remained unchanged, while the prices of some decreased slightly. For example, the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 193,050 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of most cells and batteries remained unchanged, with only the price of square lithium iron phosphate battery increasing by 0.001 yuan/Wh to 0.322 yuan/Wh [5]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][18]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) Asia - domestic from 2024 to 2026 [18][20]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [26][28][30]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][35]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from July 2025 to March 2026 [38][41]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2026 [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatility" rating to lithium carbonate [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zimbabwe's export policy change will impact lithium supply, with an expected monthly supply reduction of 12,000 tons of LCE. The actual supply impact may appear around late April. In the short - term, the impact on domestic smelters is relatively controllable, but in the long - term, it will influence the annual inventory accumulation/de - stocking trend of lithium carbonate [1][13] - In March, the demand scheduling met expectations, with significant growth in the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of cells. However, if the subsequent power demand fails to recover as expected, power cells may face pressure and decline [2][15] - It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate will have a de - stocking of about 2,000 tons in March. There may still be a slight de - stocking in Q2, and inventory accumulation may occur after the supply increases in Q3. If the lithium carbonate price rises to 200,000 yuan, it may lead to negative feedback on the demand side. In the short - term, a bullish view is maintained, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to price corrections after the supply increases, but the price center of lithium carbonate may be significantly higher than before [3][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zimbabwe Disturbs Supply, March Demand Scheduling Meets Expectations - This week (2/24 - 2/27), lithium salt prices continued to rise. The closing price of LC2605 increased by 15.3% to 176,040 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 19.7% and 20.1% to 172,000 and 168,500 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide fluctuated accordingly [12] - On February 25, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all exports of raw ores and lithium concentrates. It is estimated that Zimbabwe's output in 2026 will be about 220,000 tons of LCE (excluding smuggling), accounting for 11%. The policy is expected to affect the monthly supply by 12,000 tons of LCE. The neutral expected impact time is about 1 month, and the actual supply impact may appear around late April [13] - The Middle East situation has little direct impact on lithium ore transportation but may indirectly affect transportation costs through oil prices. Currently, lithium prices are far from cost - based pricing, and the profit at the ore end is substantial [14] - In terms of fundamentals, in February, the lithium carbonate output was 83,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15%. The expected production scheduling in March is 106,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%. In March, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of cells all increased significantly. The overall demand scheduling met the previous high - growth expectations, with the lithium iron cathode slightly exceeding expectations. However, if the subsequent power demand fails to recover as expected, power cells may face pressure and decline [2][15] - After considering imports and exports, it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate will have a de - stocking of about 2,000 tons in March. Lithium carbonate continued to be de - stocked this week. There may still be a slight de - stocking in Q2, and inventory accumulation may occur after the supply increases in Q3. If the lithium carbonate price rises to 200,000 yuan, it may lead to negative feedback on the demand side. In the short - term, a bullish view is maintained, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to price corrections after the supply increases, but the price center of lithium carbonate may be significantly higher than before [3][16] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - On February 13, Finland launched the operation of Europe's first commercial lithium spodumene mine, the Kelibers project. The project has a lithium concentrate production capacity equivalent to 15,000 tons of lithium hydroxide. It is the most likely lithium mine project to achieve mass production in Europe this year [17] - Core Lithium has reached a fixed - price agreement with Glencore to sell about 5,100 dry tons of lithium spodumene concentrate inventory from the Finniss lithium project. The funds from the Glencore agreement are expected to arrive in the second quarter of 2026 [17] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: The Price Trends of Ore and Salt are Consistent - The report presents data on the spot average price of lithium concentrate, monthly inventory of lithium ore samples, closing price of the GFEX lithium carbonate main contract, and term structure of GFEX lithium carbonate [19][21][22] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: Ore - End Disturbance Causes the Disk to Rise Again - The report shows data on domestic weekly lithium carbonate production, SMM weekly lithium carbonate inventory, domestic lithium carbonate spot average price and electrical - industrial price difference, lithium carbonate basis, domestic lithium hydroxide spot average price, domestic and overseas lithium hydroxide price difference, domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide - lithium carbonate price difference, and the theoretical production profit of lithium salt plants [27][28][31] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediate Products: The Rise in Salt Prices is Transmitted Downstream - The report provides data on the monthly production of SMM ternary materials, monthly production of SMM lithium iron phosphate, price trend of lithium iron phosphate, average price of lithium iron phosphate cells (power type), price trend of ternary materials, price trend of cobalt - acid lithium, and average price of cobalt - acid lithium cells (consumer type) [46][49][52] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Power Data in January is Not Optimistic - The report shows data on China's power battery installation volume and year - on - year growth rate, monthly power battery installation proportion, new energy vehicle production and sales year - on - year growth rate, and new energy vehicle penetration rate [61][64][65]

Core Viewpoint - After the Spring Festival, lithium carbonate prices have continued to rebound, driven by downstream production expectations and rumors of exports from Africa, with prices rising over 10% yesterday and continuing to increase today with a maximum intraday increase of over 5% [3][7] Supply Side - In February, lithium carbonate production is expected to decrease by 16.3% month-on-month to 81,930 tons, with declines in all raw materials for lithium extraction [4][8] - The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 3,058 tons to 43,657 tons, while other segments decreased by 4,430 tons to 43,450 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 647 tons to 18,356 tons [4][8] Demand Side - In February, the production of ternary materials is expected to decrease by 14.6% month-on-month to 69,250 tons, and lithium iron phosphate production is expected to decrease by 10.7% month-on-month to 354,000 tons [4][8] Inventory Dynamics - The ongoing destocking pattern is expected to continue to support market trends in the short term, although there are concerns about significant supply pressure from the increased shipping data from January, which may not be sustainable [4][8] Market Developments - PLS announced plans to restart the Ngungaju lithium mine plant in Western Australia in July, with an annual capacity of approximately 200,000 tons, currently preparing for a four-month resumption [3][7] - Reports indicate that the U.S. government is considering imposing new tariffs on about six industries under the guise of "national security," which may include large batteries, cast iron and iron parts, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, and equipment for power grids and telecommunications [3][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 375 tons to 23,685 tons last week, and the January production decreased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and mines in Yichun and Qinghai are facing permit review. Overseas imports in December 2025 showed an 8.1% month - on - month increase in lithium concentrate imports, and a 9% increase in lithium carbonate imports. Some lithium ore - purchasing manufacturers face cost inversion, while self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises have profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face high cost pressure [5]. - On the demand side, the overall production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while that of large battery cell factories increased in December. In December, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. Exports were 32.6GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%, accounting for 16.4% of the monthly sales. The new energy vehicle market is expected to grow due to policies [6]. - In terms of inventory, lithium carbonate inventory is in a destocking state. Factory inventory increased by 1,010 tons, market inventory decreased by 6,575 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,146 tons [6]. - It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate and adjust. Although the demand for exports is strong and the destocking trend continues, the supply is expected to be supplemented by South American lithium salt imports. Entering the off - season of power demand with increasing supply, the price will likely remain volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply - Last week's lithium carbonate production decreased by 375 tons to 23,685 tons, and January production decreased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and Yichun and Qinghai production enterprises received mine permit review notices. Some mines in Jiangxi may face shutdown. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, with limited further cost - reduction space. In December 2025, China imported 789,000 tons of lithium concentrate, an 8.1% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Lithium carbonate imports in December were 23,989 tons, a 9% month - on - month increase [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers purchasing lithium ore face cost inversion, while self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises have profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face high cost pressure [5]. Demand - The overall production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while that of large battery cell factories increased in December. In December, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. Exports were 32.6GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%, accounting for 16.4% of the monthly sales. The new energy vehicle market is expected to grow due to policies [6]. Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate inventory is in a destocking state. Factory inventory increased by 1,010 tons, market inventory decreased by 6,575 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,146 tons [6]. Strategy Suggestion - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down, and there are risks in Yichun's mine permits. January's domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 3% month - on - month. December's lithium concentrate imports were 789,000 tons, an 8.1% month - on - month increase, and lithium carbonate imports were about 24,000 tons, an 8.7% month - on - month increase and a 14.4% year - on - year decrease. Strong downstream demand for exports and the destocking trend continue. It is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. - From the demand side, the production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while it increased significantly in January due to export rush. The cathode production schedule in November increased by 2% month - on - month. There are continuous risks in Yichun's mine permits. With profit restoration, lithium production from ore continues to increase, and the cost center shifts upward. The resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo is postponed, and the pre - demand for battery exports drives downstream production increase. Inventory continues to decline, and South American lithium salt shipments increase. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at Yichun's mine end. Entering the off - season of power demand with increasing supply, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate and adjust [6]. 3.2. Key Data Tracking - The document provides multiple data charts, including the spot含税均价 of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, average price of imported lithium concentrate, monthly factory inventory, production of power and other batteries, production of lithium iron phosphate, average production cost of lithium carbonate, production of ternary materials, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, import volume of lithium spodumene, market price of ternary materials, and import volume of lithium carbonate [8][9][11][12][16][18][20][27][29][30][33][34]. - In 2026 January, the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials accounted for 18.06% from salt lakes, 24.55% from lithium mica, and 45.37% from lithium spodumene [21][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view of lithium carbonate is "oscillation". The demand production schedule in February is expected to decline month-on-month, but the decline is within the market's judgment in December. Expectations such as export rush and negative feedback from upstream price increases are not significantly reflected in the February production schedule data. Attention should be paid to whether there is a large gap between the production schedule and actual output. Due to the optimistic long - term demand outlook before the Spring Festival, the demand production schedule for March has been significantly increased, making the demand in Q1 basically flat month - on - month. Therefore, changes in the March demand production schedule may cause certain disturbances to the futures price. In the short term, without strong negative feedback from downstream, the price may still tend to be oscillating and slightly stronger. Additionally, recent regulations are strict, so investors should pay attention to the daily price amplitude and hold positions carefully [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - The futures price of lithium carbonate reached a new high this year. Last week, the main contract price of lithium carbonate futures rose to 181,500 yuan/ton, with the main LC2605 contract opening at 147,600 yuan/ton, closing at 181,520 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 182,000 yuan/ton and a low of 142,100 yuan/ton during the period, a weekly increase of 24.16% [7][11] - The spot price increased week - on - week. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 8,000 yuan/ton to 171,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also increased by 8,000 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained flat at 3,500 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][19] 3.2 Lithium Ore - The prices of domestic and imported lithium ore increased week - on - week. The prices of domestic lithium spodumene concentrates with grades of 3% - 4%, 4% - 5%, and 5% - 5.5% increased by 800, 825, and 1,275 yuan/ton respectively to 9,225, 12,325, and 15,675 yuan/ton. The prices of domestic lithium mica concentrates with grades of 1.5% - 2.0% and 2.0% - 2.5% increased by 240 and 290 yuan/ton respectively to 3,300 and 5,125 yuan/ton. The CIF prices of imported lithium spodumene ore with grades of 1.2% - 1.5%, 2% - 2.5%, and 3% - 4% increased by 5, 7.5, and 12.5 US dollars/ton respectively. The CIF prices of Australian and Brazilian lithium spodumene concentrates increased by 190 and 175 US dollars/ton respectively to 2,275 and 2,255 US dollars/ton [26] - The available inventory of lithium ore at ports increased week - on - week. As of January 23, the total inventory of domestic main port traders and warehouses for sale increased by 53,000 tons to 200,000 tons compared with January 16. Among them, the spot inventory of domestic lithium ore traders in major ports increased by 53,000 tons to 191,000 tons, and the inventory for sale in domestic warehouses (excluding factory raw material inventory) remained unchanged at 9,000 tons [30] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply - The weekly output decreased slightly. Last week, the domestic lithium carbonate output decreased by 388 tons to 22,217 tons. By raw material, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene, mica, and salt lake decreased by 210, 54, and 30 tons respectively to 13,914, 2,882, and 3,115 tons. By region, the weekly output in Qinghai, Jiangxi, and Sichuan increased by 15 tons, decreased by 465 tons, and decreased by 220 tons respectively to 3,375, 7,585, and 4,425 tons. The weekly operating rate increased by 1.5 percentage points to 52.8% [37] - The monthly output in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 1,230 tons to 97,970 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. Among them, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene, mica, salt lake, and recycling increased by 410 tons, decreased by 850 tons, decreased by 50 tons, and decreased by 740 tons respectively to 61,260, 12,500, 14,940, and 9,270 tons [37] - The production cost of purchased lithium ore increased. The production cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) increased by 14,419 yuan/ton to 159,791 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 1,549 yuan/ton to 8,980 yuan/ton. The production cost of purchased lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) increased by 7,269 yuan/ton to 153,199 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 5,471 yuan/ton to 11,911 yuan/ton [41] - The total inventory decreased slightly. As of January 22, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 783 tons to 108,896 tons. Among them, the inventories of smelters, downstream, and other lithium carbonate increased by 107 tons, 1,940 tons, and decreased by 2,830 tons respectively to 19,834, 37,592, and 51,470 tons. As of January 23, the registered warehouse receipts totaled 28,156 tons, an increase of 698 tons compared with January 16 [48] 3.4 Cathode Materials and Electrolytes - Ternary materials: The price increased significantly last week, with an increase of 3,150 - 5,550 yuan/ton. As of January 22, the weekly output increased by 621 tons to 18,256 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 611 tons to 18,868 tons. The output in January is expected to reach 78,180 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The production profits of 523 - type and 811 - type ternary materials increased by 15,505 and 19,075 yuan/ton respectively to - 13,670 and - 9,350 yuan/ton [56] - Lithium iron phosphate: The prices of power - type, low - end, and mid - high - end lithium iron phosphate increased by 3,155, 3,050, and 3,150 yuan/ton respectively. As of January 22, the weekly output increased by 293 tons to 87,319 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 700 tons to 96,590 tons. The output in January is expected to reach 363,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. Considering that the processing fees for cathode materials have been negotiated, the actual output in January may be higher than expected [58] - Lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate: The production schedules in January are expected to decrease. The output of lithium cobalt oxide in January is expected to reach 10,330 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.2%. The output of lithium manganate in January is expected to reach 11,920 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% [63] - Electrolyte: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 9,000 yuan/ton to 146,000 yuan/ton last week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.8%. The output of lithium hexafluorophosphate in January is expected to reach 27,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6%. The output of electrolyte in January is expected to reach 213,130 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6%. The upstream and downstream inventory days of lithium hexafluorophosphate are 9.7 and 9.8 days respectively, an increase of 0.5 and 0.8 days compared with the previous period [65] 3.5 Batteries - Production: The total domestic battery output in December 2025 reached 206.77 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 6.9 GWh. In January 2026, the total battery output is expected to reach 194.53 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 6% [71] - Inventory: As of December 2025, the domestic power and energy - storage battery inventories were 145.4 and 35.3 GWh respectively, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 GWh and a decrease of 4.6 GWh. The inventory - to - sales ratios of power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries increased by 0.21, 0.02, and decreased by 0.14 months respectively to 1.61, 0.97, and 0.53 months [74]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a bullish sentiment on lithium prices in the short term, driven by supply constraints and strong demand fundamentals, while caution is advised for the mid-term outlook due to uncertainties in production timelines and regulatory pressures [1][2]. Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's report highlights that the price of lithium carbonate reached a peak of 178,000 RMB per ton, with a notable increase of over 5% [1]. - The cost of lithium carbonate from integrated lithium mica mines has decreased to 60,000 RMB per ton, suggesting potential for further cost reductions in the future [1][2]. - Domestic lithium carbonate inventory has decreased by 783 tons week-on-week, indicating a tight supply situation with upstream lithium salt plants holding less than 20,000 tons of finished product inventory [1]. - The demand side remains strong, with expectations of continued consumption despite the seasonal downturn, leading to concerns about supply tightness in the second quarter [1]. Group 3 - Companies involved in the lithium carbonate industry chain in the Hong Kong stock market include Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Tianqi Lithium (09696) [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the lithium carbonate industry, particularly regarding pricing, supply-demand balance, and electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage demand trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Price Trends**: - Lithium carbonate prices have surged from 90,000 to nearly 190,000, indicating a bullish outlook for the market. The internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage projects in northern regions has decreased from 9% to 6%. Further price increases could lead to additional declines in IRR, but this may not significantly impact prices [1][1][1]. 2. **Supply-Demand Balance**: - Initial projections indicated a surplus of 30,000 to 50,000 tons in 2025, but adjustments now suggest a tight balance for the entire year. The supply-demand balance is projected to shift negatively from 2026 to 2030, with deficits of -15,000 tons in 2026, -6,000 tons in 2027, -89,000 tons in 2028, -189,000 tons in 2029, and -440,000 tons in 2030 [1][1][1]. 3. **Supply Details**: - By 2026, resource supply is expected to reach 2.05 to 2.06 million tons, an increase of 413,000 tons from 2025. Lithium salt supply is projected to rise from 1.54 million tons to 1.91 million tons, an increase of 370,000 to 380,000 tons. Major contributors to this growth include the commissioning of the Greenbushes project in Australia and other salt lake projects [1][1][1]. 4. **Future Supply Increases**: - In 2027, an additional 440,000 tons of resource supply is anticipated, primarily from the resumption of Australian projects and the commissioning of the Mariana project. The breakdown for 2026 includes 230,000 tons from spodumene, with contributions from Africa (140,000 tons), Australia (43,000 tons), and China (49,000 tons) [2][2][2]. 5. **Demand Projections**: - Domestic electric vehicle sales are expected to grow by 19% in 2026, with a projected 16 million units sold in 2025. Each 1% increase in sales corresponds to an additional 160,000 vehicles and 5,000 tons of lithium carbonate. Heavy-duty electric trucks are expected to see sales of 200,000 units in 2025 and 250,000 units in 2026 [3][3][3]. 6. **Energy Storage Demand**: - Actual shipments for energy storage in 2025 are projected to be between 620-640 GWh, representing over 80% year-on-year growth. The forecast for 2026 has been revised upwards to 900-950 GWh, with a potential aggressive target of 1,000 GWh. Domestic registered energy storage projects are expected to reach 1,200-1,300 GWh in the coming years [3][3][3]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Impact of Lithium Prices on IRR**: - The sensitivity of IRR to lithium prices is significant; a 50,000 increase in lithium prices results in a 1.25-1.5 percentage point decrease in IRR for storage projects. If prices rise from 90,000 to 190,000, the IRR could drop by 3 percentage points. If IRR falls below 6%, project delays may occur [4][4][4]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: - There is a time misalignment between energy storage installation and production, where current production exceeds current order volumes. If lithium prices fall to 100,000, previously registered projects could be restarted, providing a floor for lithium prices [4][4][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the lithium carbonate futures prices increased significantly, breaking through the previous high, with the 2605 contract closing at 181,520 yuan/ton (a weekly increase of 35,320 yuan/ton), the 2607 contract closing at 182,640 yuan/ton (a weekly increase of 35,700 yuan/ton), and the spot price rising 13,000 yuan/ton to 171,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The de - stocking pattern continues, and overseas mining costs have risen significantly. The new mining royalty policy in Nigeria has increased the mining cost of lithium ore. The domestic weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 399 tons to 22,217 tons. This week, the shipment volume of Australian ore increased by 49,000 tons to 107,000 tons, while the shipment volume of Chilean lithium salt decreased by 500 tons to 3,840 tons [2]. - Short - term demand is strong, and the power terminal is waiting to recover. The actual production reduction of cathode material factories is limited, and the demand for export rush continues to be released. Overseas demand is expected to improve marginally, while domestic new energy vehicle domestic demand is still weak in the short term. The energy storage industry maintains high prosperity [2]. - This week, lithium carbonate continued to be destocked, with the industry inventory dropping by 783 tons to 108,896 tons, and the inventory transferred to downstream. The number of newly registered futures warehouse receipts increased by 698 to 28,156 [3]. - The core logic of strong reality and expectations remains unchanged. The supply is expected to contract marginally, and the demand shows the characteristic of “not being in the off - season”. However, potential demand feedback risks and the risk of phased correction caused by long - position profit - taking need to be monitored [4]. - For unilateral trading, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 170,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton. For inter - period trading, it is recommended to do positive spreads as the near - term supply and demand are tight. For hedging, due to large fluctuations, upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to hedge with options [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The report presents figures on the price difference between lithium carbonate spot and futures, and the inter - period price difference of lithium carbonate futures, sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side (Lithium Ore) - Figures show the processing spot and disk profits of spodumene concentrate, the average price trend of spodumene concentrate, the monthly import volume and price of lithium concentrate, and the monthly import volume and price of Australian lithium concentrate, with data from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [10][12]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - Side (Lithium Salt Products) - Multiple figures display various prices of lithium carbonate products, such as the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in East China, the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price trends of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the processing cost of converting industrial - grade to battery - grade lithium carbonate and the futures discount cost, etc. It also includes data on the monthly production, import and export volume, inventory, etc. of lithium carbonate, all sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [14][19][20]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - Figures show the monthly production and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of ternary materials, the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production of various types of domestic power lithium batteries and lithium batteries, with data from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [27][28][30].