国庆档背后 都知道房地产必须挤泡沫了，如今才知道挤泡沫的过程，有多痛。 今年的国庆中秋档期就出现了比较有意思的场景—— 房子不好卖了，票房不卖座，酒店也空了。 一个是国庆中秋期间，非常热门的旅游圣地，酒店空了，帐篷满了，游客不住酒店，而是选择了更经济的帐篷露营。 一个是国庆档的电影总票房回到10年前。国家电影局10月9日发布，2025年国庆档电影票房18.35亿元，整个国庆假期虽然破18亿票房，但同比下滑14%， 而今年的国庆档还多一天假期。 还有一个是这个国庆假期的人均消费金额。据文化和旅游部数据中心测算，国庆中秋假期，全国国内出游8.88亿人次，国内出游总花费8090.06亿元，人均 每日消费113.9元，同比下滑13%。 电影票房不卖座、酒店空了，看上去和房地产没那么"直接挂钩"，但背后都是老百姓的钱袋子、日常消费习惯在串着。 电影票房收缩的底层逻辑是近年的电影行业投资端不畅，产能不足；国庆假期年轻人光旅游不花钱的底层逻辑是收入缩水，景区酒店涨价，失去性价比， 不如自带帐篷、自备食物更能降低旅游的成本，最终还是与经济息息相关。 经济的循环是投资创造收入，收入又拉动消费，而消费又将会带动企业收入，进而拉动 ...

像抓生产一样抓消费，要探索以系统性举措释放市场潜力。 积极营造促消费的良好环境。为了招商引资，各地不断优化软硬环境，从"三通一平"到"九通一平"， 从"门难进、脸难看"到"高效办成一件事"，环境越来越好、服务越来越优，有力拉动了生产。各地区各 部门抓消费，也要不断完善城乡消费设施、消费政策环境、市场监管环境以及消费权益保障环境，让消 费环境优获得感强，居民愿意消费。 依靠改革打通制约消费的卡点堵点。比如，建立和完善扩大居民消费的长效机制，使居民有稳定收入能 消费、没有后顾之忧敢消费。再比如，推进税制改革，提高地方抓消费的积极性和主动性。目前，我国 增值税分配仍以生产地原则为基础，在该原则下，商品或劳务在哪里生产或提供，增值税就归属于该生 产地或提供地。因此，地方政府更倾向于支持企业生产投资，存在"重生产、轻消费"的现象。要加快落 实党的二十届三中全会改革部署，推进消费税征收环节后移并稳步下划地方，统筹考虑中央与地方收入 划分、税收征管能力等因素，分品目、分步骤稳妥实施，拓展地方收入来源，引导地方主动优化消费环 境、发力提振消费。 国家统计局发布的8月份数据显示，我国经济运行总体平稳，高质量发展扎实推进。但同时 ...

Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment towards the capital market, especially the stock market, is optimistic, with an emphasis on taking advantage of favorable conditions as they arise [4]. Group 1: Five Key Judgments - The worst phase of the economic cycle is believed to be passing, with all leading economic indicators showing upward trends for the first time in three years [5]. - The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is also seen as coming to an end, with a stable funding environment expected to be negatively correlated with improving economic prospects [5]. - Preconditions for supply-demand balance have emerged, as investment growth in the upstream and midstream sectors has begun to decline [5]. - There is no simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds; instead, a rebalancing of stock and bond allocations is necessary, as the relative value of stocks compared to bonds has improved [5]. - The main logic for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been clearly triggered, with short-term appreciation likely needing further economic validation [5]. Group 2: Economic Cycle - The current economic situation is characterized by significant disparities in economic structure, making total data assessments somewhat misleading [10]. - The reliance on deposit indicators has increased, as the shift from precautionary savings to normal savings is crucial for understanding the economic cycle [10]. - Leading indicators such as old-caliber M1 and the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits are critical for predicting future economic performance [14][15]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The shift from precautionary to normal savings among residents is expected to influence monetary policy and market stability [22]. - The relationship between old-caliber M1 and R007 indicates that as the economy improves, funding volatility is likely to increase, posing challenges for bonds [24]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Balance - Historical experiences suggest that a decline in supply is a crucial precondition for price stabilization [27]. - The current situation shows that upstream supply is outpacing demand, particularly in raw materials, which is exerting downward pressure on prices [29]. - The midstream sector is also experiencing an accumulation of production capacity, which has led to a downward price trend [30]. Group 5: Stock-Bond Dynamics - The analysis indicates that there is likely no simultaneous bull market in stocks and bonds, but rather a reversal in their relationship [32]. - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference has been declining, suggesting that bonds have had a comparative advantage over stocks [33]. - The anticipated reversal in asset allocation is expected to occur slightly ahead of the economic cycle, with policy interventions playing a significant role [39]. Group 6: Currency and Macro Trends - The main chain for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been triggered, with historical patterns indicating that PMI improvements are necessary for such a shift [44][45]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain supportive for the next six months, with stable overseas demand and improved U.S.-China relations contributing to market stability [52].

Economic Growth Overview - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year. From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 0.5% year-on-year [1] - The spokesperson from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the economic growth remains stable, and macro policies will focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while promoting steady and healthy economic development [1] Domestic Demand Expansion - The effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand continue to manifest, with the third batch of consumption upgrade policies being implemented, leading to a rapid increase in sales of related goods [2] - In August, retail sales of household appliances, furniture, and cultural office supplies maintained double-digit growth [2] - The production sector is also benefiting from these policies, with significant year-on-year increases in the manufacturing of boilers and electric motors at 11.9% and 14.8%, respectively [2] Innovation and New Growth Drivers - Policies promoting innovation are enhancing new growth drivers, with the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative gaining traction and digital economy development showing positive trends [3] - The stock market in August saw increased activity, which is beneficial for improving market expectations and enhancing development vitality [3] Private Investment Growth - A series of supportive measures for the development of the private economy are optimizing the environment for private investment, leading to significant growth in high-tech industries [4] - From January to August, private investment in the information service industry grew by 26.7%, while professional technical services saw a 17.6% increase [4] - Private capital is steadily participating in major national infrastructure projects, with private investment in infrastructure rising by 7.5%, outpacing overall infrastructure investment growth by 5.5 percentage points [4] Future Outlook - Despite challenges faced by some private enterprises, the future development space for the economy remains broad, supported by the growth in green industries and the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law [5] - The continuous implementation of macro policies is expected to maintain a steady and progressive economic trend in the third quarter [6]

Group 1: Macro News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation have released the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry 2025-2026," which includes 16 specific measures aimed at promoting industrial upgrades, enhancing the high-quality supply system, and fostering economic circulation [1] - The plan focuses on three main areas: promoting industrial upgrades, deepening the construction of a high-quality supply system, and driving the integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] Group 2: Renewable Energy Development - The National Energy Administration is actively researching policy measures to promote the development of deep-sea offshore wind power and solar thermal power, emphasizing the acceleration of new models and new business formats in renewable energy [2] - The administration aims to leverage a series of supportive policies to facilitate the growth of emerging industries in the renewable energy sector [2] Group 3: Local Government Debt - In August, local government bond issuance reached 977.6 billion yuan, exceeding the previously announced issuance plan of 940.8 billion yuan [5] - Five provinces (municipalities) issued over 50 billion yuan in bonds, with Anhui leading at 92.7 billion yuan, followed by Guangdong at 92.1 billion yuan and Zhejiang at 76.0 billion yuan [5]

Core Viewpoints - The contraction of corporate loans does not affect the judgment that the worst period of the economic cycle is passing [4][6] - Overall corporate financing scale is still growing, with improvements in equity and bond financing compared to the same period last year [4][6] - The level of loans does not necessarily correspond to the health of the economy, as the ongoing recovery of the corporate-resident deposit gap indicates continuous improvement in the economic cycle [4][6] - Current market policies have reduced stock volatility, enhancing risk-adjusted returns for equities, making them more attractive compared to bonds [4][6] Group 1: Understanding Corporate Loan Contraction - In July, corporate short-term loans decreased by 550 billion, and medium to long-term loans decreased by 260 billion, indicating a seasonal factor as July is traditionally a low month for credit [13][14] - The reduction in corporate loans may benefit the Producer Price Index (PPI) by controlling the flow of loans to the manufacturing sector, which has been a focus of recent supply-side reforms [16][19] - Corporate financing is not limited to loans; direct financing has shown strong performance, indicating a shift in economic structure towards more suitable financing methods for high-tech and innovative enterprises [19][23] Group 2: July Financial Data and Its Impact on Investment Judgments - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.1 trillion, marking the third highest value for the year, indicating ample liquidity in financial institutions [30][31] - The ratio of resident deposits to the market value of stocks remains high, suggesting significant potential for market growth as the economic cycle improves [30][31] - The Sharpe ratio for stocks compared to bonds is increasing, indicating a reversal in the attractiveness of equities over bonds, driven by clear market stabilization policies [31][36] Group 3: July Financial Data Overview - In July, the total social financing increased by 1.16 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, while corporate loans decreased significantly [37][38] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a healthy increase in liquidity, while new M1 also showed a positive trend [38][39] - The overall corporate financing scale continues to recover, with improvements in direct financing methods such as corporate bond and equity financing [37][39]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents five key judgments regarding the current economic situation in China, indicating that the worst period of economic circulation is likely over, and emphasizes a shift away from reliance on extraordinary policies and the loosest monetary policy phase [2][18]. Group 1: Economic Circulation - The worst period of economic circulation is likely passing, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year and leading indicators showing objective improvement [2][3]. - Key indicators of economic circulation include the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits, M1 growth, and various measures of household savings behavior, all of which have shown signs of recovery over the past 6-9 months [3][4]. Group 2: Policy Changes - The reliance on extraordinary policy measures is diminishing, with a focus on the effectiveness of existing policies rather than new ones, as evidenced by a 8.9% increase in fiscal spending in the first half of the year [7][8]. - The potential for new incremental policies in the second half of the year is significantly reduced, with a focus on monitoring the release of household deposits and leading indicators [7][8]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is likely coming to an end, as indicated by the current state of household deposits and the relationship between deposit behavior and monetary policy [9][12]. - The total household deposits have reached 160 trillion, with a significant portion being precautionary savings, suggesting a shift in monetary policy dynamics [9][12]. Group 4: Investment Landscape - The relative attractiveness of bonds compared to stocks is changing, with a notable increase in the Sharpe ratio for stocks, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation from bonds to stocks [12][14]. - The capital market's stability and attractiveness are being reinforced by policy interventions, which have reduced volatility and downside risks in the stock market [12][14]. Group 5: Competition and Market Dynamics - The current phase of intense competition driven by unfair practices is likely coming to an end, with ongoing efforts to regulate and optimize market competition [14][16]. - The government is focusing on enhancing market order and addressing issues related to unfair competition, which may positively impact economic circulation and pricing [16][17].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment in China, focusing on economic cycles, monetary policy, and supply-side reforms. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Cycle Recovery**: The disparity between corporate and household deposit growth is a leading indicator of economic cycles, which has shown signs of recovery over the past 6-9 months, indicating that the worst economic period may be behind [1][2][16]. 2. **Policy Direction**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the release of existing policy effects rather than introducing new stimulus measures, suggesting a shift away from extraordinary policy reliance [1][4]. 3. **Monetary Policy Shift**: The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is over, with a focus on structural functions rather than broad easing. The large scale of precautionary savings among residents poses challenges for the central bank [1][5][17]. 4. **Impact of Household Savings**: The shift of household deposits towards financial investments has improved market liquidity, but it also presents challenges for the central bank in balancing tightening and easing measures [1][6][7]. 5. **Stock vs. Bond Market Dynamics**: Policies have significantly impacted the stock market, enhancing its attractiveness compared to bonds. Despite economic indicators not showing significant recovery, the stock market has seen an increase in its floating ratio due to policy interventions [1][8][12]. 6. **Supply-Side Reforms**: Current supply-side reforms focus on improving energy efficiency in high-energy-consuming industries and enhancing market competition through legal and market-oriented measures [3][9][10]. 7. **Anti-Competition Policies**: The anti-involution policies are aimed at optimizing market competition and addressing issues like improper scale competition and local protectionism, with a focus on legal frameworks rather than administrative measures [11][22]. 8. **Future Economic Indicators**: The next few months are critical for observing leading economic indicators, which could trigger an earlier shift from bonds to stocks if they show sustained improvement [12][19]. 9. **Consumer Policy Outlook**: Consumer policies in the second half of the year are expected to remain stable, focusing on measures to stabilize retail sales, including subsidies and financial incentives [20][21]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Investment Trends**: A decline in manufacturing investment is anticipated, which historically has led to positive outcomes for PPI, suggesting that a reduction in investment could be beneficial for the economy in the long run [19]. 2. **Household and Corporate Deposit Dynamics**: The current state of household and corporate deposit growth is crucial for understanding future economic pressures and consumer behavior, with a noted historical low in the deposit gap [16]. 3. **Long-Term Economic Adjustments**: The adjustments in monetary policy and economic strategies are expected to lead to upward revisions in economic cycles and price assessments, which could negatively impact bonds while improving equity attractiveness [14][18].

Core Viewpoints - The economic cycle has been continuously improving since September 2024, with the April data showing a persistent improvement in the deposit scissors difference between enterprises and residents [4][21] - Non-bank institutions have seen the highest deposit growth in the past five years, indicating a potential shift in resident deposits and a response to the central bank's efforts to stabilize the market [4][9] - Loan data reveals a structural shift, with an increase in consumer loans for residents and a decrease in operational loans, while enterprises are seeing a rise in short-term loans but a decline in medium- to long-term loans [4][8] Financial Asset Side Observations - April is typically a month of weak credit expansion, with the new social financing scale at 1.16 trillion, which is relatively stable compared to previous years [6][12] - The structure of resident loans is changing, with consumer loans increasing while operational loans are declining, reflecting a shift in demand and potential impacts on household debt and bank income [7][14] - Enterprise loans have shown a strong performance in 2025, with a total of 9.3 trillion in new loans, although the duration of these loans is shortening compared to previous years [8][18] Financial Liability Side Observations - Leading indicators of the economic cycle are improving, with the enterprise-resident deposit scissors difference recovering from -14.7% in August 2024 to -8.4% currently [9][21] - Non-bank institution deposits have increased significantly, with a total of 2.2 trillion in new deposits in the first four months of 2025, indicating strong performance in the equity market [9][23] - The central bank's protective measures in the financial market are evident, with interventions aimed at stabilizing asset prices during market shocks [10][24] April Financial Data Highlights - In April, RMB loans increased by 280 billion, with a total loan balance of 265.7 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [29][31] - The social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, indicating ongoing government debt issuance [31][32] - M2 growth was recorded at 8%, while new M1 growth was at 1.5%, showing a mixed trend in monetary aggregates [32][33]

Group 1: Financial Asset Observations - In April 2025, new social financing amounted to 1.16 trillion RMB, a decrease from 5.89 trillion RMB in the previous period[1] - The total amount of new RMB loans was 280 billion RMB, down from 3.64 trillion RMB previously[1] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.7%, compared to 8.4% in the previous period[1] Group 2: Loan Structure Changes - Since September 2024, there has been a continuous increase in consumer loans while operating loans have been declining[2] - For enterprises, short-term loans are increasing while medium to long-term loans are decreasing[2] - The proportion of medium to long-term loans in enterprise loans has decreased from approximately 76% in 2023 to about 62% in 2025[5] Group 3: Economic Cycle Indicators - The enterprise-resident deposit scissors difference improved from -14.7% in August 2024 to -8.4% currently, indicating a recovery in the economic cycle[6] - Non-bank institutions saw a strong increase in deposits, with a total of 2.2 trillion RMB added in the first four months of 2025, higher than previous years[6] Group 4: Government Leverage and Financing - In April, the net financing of government bonds was 972.9 billion RMB, an increase of 10.67 trillion RMB year-on-year[6] - The total social financing increment was 11.59 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 12.25 trillion RMB[6] - M2 growth was 8% year-on-year, up from 7% in the previous month[6]