先说说M2为啥这么重要。它不像GDP那么直观，但它是经济血液里的氧气。钱多了，本来该刺激投资和消费，拉动增长。 可如果钱多得过火，就容易推高物价，让大家手里的钱买不到原来那么多东西。回顾过去，1956年M2才175亿，2013年才破100万亿，用了57年。2020年破 200万亿，只用了不到7年。 2023年9月是289.67万亿，年底就接近300万亿，这增长速度，确实让不少人觉得央行印钞机没停过。 央行解释说，这是为了稳增长，支持信贷扩张和投资需求。可问题在于，这些钱没均匀流到老百姓手里，很多沉淀在银行体系或大项目里，导致实体经济感 受不到多少热乎气。 专家们一看这情况，就开始呼吁大家多花钱。他们的逻辑挺简单：钱多会贬值，存着不动等于亏本，花出去买东西或服务，能刺激需求，带动产业链转起 来。 比方说，买家电或旅游，能拉动相关产业就业，还能降低居民储蓄率。现在中国储蓄率高得吓人，居民存款过去7年翻倍，M2从2020年的200万亿涨到现在 的300多万亿，可消费却没跟上。 专家觉得，消费比重上去了，经济增长就更健康。通胀压力下，花钱买耐用消费品，能保值。像黄金或房产，以前就是抗通胀的工具。 现在专家还建议多样化 ...

文/ 中国金融学会理事会会长、中国人民银行原行长 易纲 商业可持续是发展普惠金融应坚持的基本原则。 只有坚持普惠金融的商 业可持续性，才能最大限度的动员金融机构和社会资本服务于普惠金融， 支持三农和小微企业；才能有效理顺激励约束机制，促使金融机构持续向 普惠客户提供有质量和效率保证的金融服务。 普惠金融的中国实践 普惠金融是指立足机会平等要求和商业可持续原则，以可负担的成本为有金融服务需求的社会各阶层和群体提供适当、有效的金融服务。在我国， 给普通老百姓日常生活的（如存、贷、汇、移动支付等）金融服务，以及支持三农、小微企业和个体工商户，是普惠金融的重点领域。 早在20世纪30年代，中国就已经有了普惠金融的实践，如费孝通提出发展信贷合作社，梁漱溟在山东邹平乡村建设试验区设立农村金融流通处等。 20世纪50年代，我国建立了以农村信用社为主体的农村金融体系，推动普惠金融发展。20世纪90年代，出现了发展小额信用贷款支持扶贫的探索， 如1993年杜晓山、茅于轼建立的河北易县、山西临县小额信贷实验等。2003年，党中央、国务院决定深化农村信用社改革，人民银行以"花钱买机 制"为政策目标，提供1800亿元央行专项票据资金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, consider buying on dips and adopting a range - trading strategy. The A - share market is oscillating upwards, but there is insufficient trading volume after the August rally, so it should be treated with a range - trading mindset [16]. - For treasury bond futures, use a range - trading approach and focus on the odds of short - term bonds. The bond market is likely to be range - bound, with a slightly optimistic outlook based on odds and future fundamentals. Consider reducing positions before the holiday [17][18]. - For the black sector, policies are expected to have a neutral impact on the market. The market may experience a "no - peak season" situation. In the short term, it may adjust, and in the medium term, it will maintain a range - bound trend [18][19]. - For coal and coke, prices may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the demand for finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" period should be monitored [21]. - For ferroalloys, in the long - term, maintain a short - selling approach on rallies. Hold short positions with high - cost entry over the holiday [22]. - For soda ash and glass, adopt a short - selling approach on rallies for soda ash and a wait - and - see approach for glass [23]. - For aluminum and alumina, it is recommended to wait and see for aluminum. For alumina, short - sell on rallies, while being aware of policy changes in Guinea's ore supply [25]. - For zinc, zinc prices will oscillate weakly after the macro - impact fades, and are expected to have a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to holidays [26]. - For lithium carbonate, it will operate in a wide - range oscillation without obvious drivers [27]. - For industrial silicon, it oscillates within a range, and it is advisable to buy on dips for far - month contracts at the lower end of the range [28]. - For polysilicon, it will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and cautious operation is recommended [30]. - For cotton, adopt a short - selling approach on rallies and wait and see during the National Day holiday [32]. - For sugar, maintain a short - selling approach in the medium - term and wait and see in the short term [34]. - For eggs, short - sell on dips for near - month contracts and consider a short - near and long - far arbitrage strategy [36]. - For apples, buy on dips with a light position [38]. - For corn, remain on the sidelines for single - side trading and sell out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract [38]. - For red dates, it is recommended to wait and see [40]. - For hogs, short - sell on rallies for near - month contracts and control positions [41]. - For crude oil, it is likely to shift to a supply - exceeding - demand situation, and consider short - selling on rallies [42]. - For fuel oil, its price will follow the movement of oil prices [43]. - For plastics, it will oscillate weakly in the long - term, with short - term rebounds due to sentiment [45]. - For rubber, be cautious when holding positions as pre - holiday volatility may increase [47]. - For methanol, adopt a range - trading approach with a slightly bullish bias [48]. - For caustic soda, the futures are expected to oscillate [49]. - For asphalt, it will follow the movement of oil prices [50]. - For offset printing paper, it is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to buy on dips or sell put options near the factory's production cost line [52]. - For the polyester industry chain, it is expected to operate weakly [54]. - For liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), maintain a bearish view in the long - term [55]. - For pulp, the downside space of the futures is limited. Consider buying on dips after the holiday if the spot price stabilizes [56]. - For logs, the market is expected to oscillate. Consider buying on dips if price support is confirmed and downstream orders are good during the peak season [57]. - For urea, use a range - trading approach due to pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment [58]. - For synthetic rubber, the main contract oscillates weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see [59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission introduced that new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan will be used to supplement project capital [12]. - The US Department of Commerce issued export control rules, and China's Ministry of Commerce firmly opposes this and will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [12]. - Six departments issued a plan to stabilize the growth of the machinery industry, aiming for an average annual revenue growth of about 3.5% from 2025 to 2026, with revenue exceeding 10 trillion yuan [12]. - The China Household Electrical Appliances Association issued an initiative against unfair competition [12]. - Deepseek released the DeepSeek - V3.2 - Exp model and open - sourced it, while also significantly reducing the official API price by over 50% [13]. - US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reached a 20 - point plan to end the Gaza war, pending the approval of Hamas [13]. - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on movies made outside the US and large - scale tariffs on furniture - producing countries [13]. - The value of the US Treasury's 261.5 million ounces of gold reserves has exceeded $1 trillion, and re - evaluating at market prices could release about $990 billion in funds [13]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some are against it due to concerns about inflation remaining above the target until 2028, while others are open to potential rate cuts but with caution [14]. - In August, China issued local government bonds worth 980.1 billion yuan, and from January to August, the total issuance was 7.6838 trillion yuan [14]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is oscillating upwards, with brokerage stocks surging in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.74%. The daily trading volume was 2.18 trillion yuan. The market should be treated with a range - trading mindset due to insufficient trading volume after the August rally [16]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market is weak due to the market's digestion of the central bank's monetary policy meeting and the strong stock market. The bond market is expected to oscillate, and positions can be reduced before the holiday [17][18]. 3.4 Black Sector - Policy impact is expected to be neutral. The market may experience a "no - peak season" situation due to limited real demand improvement, high inventory in some varieties, and profit - taking from basis trading. In the short term, it may adjust, and in the medium term, it will range - bound [18][19]. 3.5 Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term. Supply is gradually recovering, but "anti - involution" and environmental protection policies may affect the market. The focus will return to supply - demand fundamentals after the Fed's interest rate cut event [21]. 3.6 Ferroalloys - In the long - term, maintain a short - selling approach on rallies. Hold short positions with high - cost entry over the holiday [22]. 3.7 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, short - sell on rallies. Supply is at a historical high, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure after the pre - holiday restocking. For glass, wait and see. The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to fuel - upgrade and demand improvement [23]. 3.8 Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, wait and see due to weak demand and poor inventory performance in September. For alumina, short - sell on rallies as there is high supply and increasing inventory pressure [25]. 3.9 Zinc - Zinc prices will oscillate weakly after the macro - impact fades. In the short term, they are expected to have a narrow - range oscillation due to holidays [26]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - It will operate in a wide - range oscillation without obvious drivers, with short - term price support from inventory reduction [27]. 3.11 Industrial Silicon - It oscillates within a range, and it is advisable to buy on dips for far - month contracts at the lower end of the range. The复产 progress of Xinjiang's leading manufacturers is the core supply - demand contradiction [28]. 3.12 Polysilicon - It will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and cautious operation is recommended. Policy progress dominates the market, and there is a contradiction between strong policy expectations and fundamental oversupply [30]. 3.13 Cotton - Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies and wait and see during the National Day holiday. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the crude oil market and international trade tariffs [32]. 3.14 Sugar - Maintain a short - selling approach in the medium - term and wait and see in the short term. The global sugar market is facing oversupply pressure, and domestic supply is expected to increase [34][35]. 3.15 Eggs - Egg prices are under pressure due to high inventory and the post - festival off - season. Short - sell on dips for near - month contracts and consider a short - near and long - far arbitrage strategy [36]. 3.16 Apples - Lightly buy on dips. The new - season apples have a strong expectation of high opening prices. Pay attention to weather conditions in the producing areas [38]. 3.17 Corn - Remain on the sidelines for single - side trading and sell out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract. The spot price is weak due to increasing supply, but there is some support from the expected supply gap in 2025/26 [38][39]. 3.18 Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. The new - season production is controversial, and the market price is stable [40]. 3.19 Hogs - The supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak. Short - sell on rallies for near - month contracts and control positions [41]. 3.20 Crude Oil - It is likely to shift to a supply - exceeding - demand situation. Consider short - selling on rallies. Pay attention to the progress of US - Russia negotiations and OPEC+ quota adjustments [42]. 3.21 Fuel Oil - Its price will follow the movement of oil prices, and there is high uncertainty in the external market during the holiday [43]. 3.22 Plastics - It will oscillate weakly in the long - term, with short - term rebounds due to sentiment. Supply pressure is high, and demand is relatively weak [45]. 3.23 Rubber - Be cautious when holding positions as pre - holiday volatility may increase. Supply is increasing, and attention should be paid to profit repair and post - holiday weather conditions [47]. 3.24 Methanol - Adopt a range - trading approach with a slightly bullish bias. Port inventory pressure is large but the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down [48]. 3.25 Caustic Soda - The futures are expected to oscillate due to pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment and weak fundamentals [49]. 3.26 Asphalt - It will follow the movement of oil prices. It has entered the seasonal demand peak season, with inventory decreasing [50][51]. 3.27 Offset Printing Paper - It is expected to oscillate. Consider buying on dips or selling put options near the factory's production cost line [52]. 3.28 Polyester Industry Chain - It is expected to operate weakly due to weakening cost support from falling international oil prices and limited demand during the peak season [54]. 3.29 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Maintain a bearish view in the long - term. Supply is abundant, and demand is unlikely to exceed expectations [55]. 3.30 Pulp - The downside space of the futures is limited. Consider buying on dips after the holiday if the spot price stabilizes. Domestic supply will support the far - month contracts, but the spot market is still weak [56]. 3.31 Logs - The market is expected to oscillate. Consider buying on dips if price support is confirmed and downstream orders are good during the peak season [57]. 3.32 Urea - Use a range - trading approach due to pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment. The spot market price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating [58]. 3.33 Synthetic Rubber - The main contract oscillates weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Downstream procurement has slowed down before the holiday [59][60].

Core Viewpoint - The development of inclusive finance should adhere to the principle of commercial sustainability, providing affordable financial services to various social groups in China [1][2]. Group 1: Definition and Importance of Inclusive Finance - Inclusive finance aims to provide appropriate and effective financial services to all social strata based on equal opportunity and commercial sustainability [1]. - Key areas of focus include daily financial services for the general public, support for agriculture, small and micro enterprises, and individual businesses [1]. Group 2: Role of Financial Institutions - Financial institutions must play a fundamental role in resource allocation, emphasizing the importance of commercial sustainability to mobilize social capital for inclusive finance [2]. - A "cost-covering, low-profit, high-volume" model is necessary for financial institutions to serve clients with limited financial capacity [2]. Group 3: Government Support and Policy Mechanisms - Government policies should create incentive-compatible mechanisms to encourage market participation and support inclusive finance [3]. - Fiscal policies, such as interest subsidies and loan loss sharing mechanisms, are crucial for expanding financial services to vulnerable groups [3]. Group 4: Case Study of Policy Implementation - During the pandemic, the People's Bank of China introduced tools to support small and micro enterprises, providing incentives to local banks for extending loan repayments [4]. - From June 2020 to the end of 2021, these tools mobilized significant financial resources, with 217 billion yuan in incentives leading to 2.2 trillion yuan in extended loans [4]. Group 5: Overall Impact of Structural Monetary Policy - Structural monetary policy effectively guides financial institutions to allocate resources to specific areas while maintaining market mechanisms and preventing moral hazards [5].

Core Viewpoint - The development of inclusive finance should adhere to the principle of commercial sustainability, as emphasized by Yi Gang, the former governor of the People's Bank of China [1] Group 1: Definition and Importance of Inclusive Finance - Inclusive finance refers to providing appropriate and effective financial services to all social strata and groups at an affordable cost, based on the principles of equal opportunity and commercial sustainability [3] - Key areas of focus for inclusive finance in China include daily financial services for the general public, support for agriculture, rural areas, and small and micro enterprises [3] Group 2: Commercial Sustainability in Inclusive Finance - Financial institutions must adopt a "cost-covering, low-profit, high-volume" model to effectively manage credit distribution while ensuring commercial sustainability [4] - Government support policies should establish incentive-compatible mechanisms to encourage market participation and effectively allocate resources to the most needy areas [4] Group 3: Policy Support and Implementation - During the COVID-19 pandemic, the People's Bank of China introduced tools to support small and micro enterprises, providing incentives for local banks to extend loan repayments and offering preferential interest rates for credit loans [5][6] - From June 2020 to the end of 2021, the inclusive small and micro enterprise loan support tools provided 21.7 billion yuan in incentives, leading to a total of 22 trillion yuan in extended loans and over 10 trillion yuan in new credit loans [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's financial total maintains a high growth rate, indicating strong support for the real economy [1][2] - As of the end of August, the social financing scale increased by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting robust financial backing for the economy [1] - The broad money (M2) balance reached 331.98 trillion yuan, also growing by 8.8% year-on-year, supported by fiscal policies and reasonable growth in social financing and loans [1] Group 2 - The credit support for the real economy remains strong, driven by factors such as industry recovery, resilient exports, summer consumption peaks, and real estate support policies [2] - Manufacturing loans have significantly increased, with new manufacturing loans accounting for 53% of new corporate loans from January to August, a rise of 33 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [2] - Personal loan growth was boosted by traditional summer consumption demand and policies promoting consumption, alongside new real estate regulations in major cities [2] Group 3 - Future monetary policy will focus on optimizing structure rather than just maintaining total growth, as the economy transitions to medium-high speed and faces challenges like high household leverage and bank asset quality [3] - By the end of August, the balance of various RMB loans was 269.10 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, while inclusive small and micro loans grew by 11.8% [3] - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to enhance financial institutions' ability and willingness to support key areas, with a focus on effective collaboration between monetary credit policies and fiscal measures [3]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of structural monetary policy tools aims to enhance the adaptability and precision of financial services in supporting economic structural adjustments and high-quality development [1][2][3] Group 1: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - Structural monetary policy tools are designed to support key areas such as technological innovation and consumption, thereby improving the effectiveness of economic transformation and upgrading [1][3] - The People's Bank of China has set up a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care re-loan program, with the first loan of 36 million yuan issued for a senior care community project in Henan [1][2] - By the end of June, loans in sectors such as technology, green finance, inclusive small and micro enterprises, elderly care, and digital economy had increased by 12.5%, 25.5%, 12.3%, 43%, and 11.5% year-on-year, respectively [2] Group 2: Financial Support for Service Consumption - The service consumption market in China has significant growth potential, with strong demand and sufficient financial support, although supply remains a shortfall [2] - The re-loan program aims to guide financial institutions to enhance high-quality supply in service sectors like accommodation, tourism, education, and elderly care, fostering a virtuous cycle of supply and demand [2] Group 3: Implementation and Coordination - The effective use of structural monetary policy tools requires a focus on key areas, reasonable adjustments, and a dynamic approach to policy implementation [3][4] - Coordination among various policies, including fiscal, industrial, regional, and trade policies, is essential to amplify the effects of monetary policy tools and ensure precise support for targeted sectors [3]

Economic Development - The core argument suggests that China's economic growth targets should not be based solely on estimates of "potential economic growth rates" due to considerable uncertainty in these estimates [4][5][6] - The estimation of China's potential economic growth rate varies widely among scholars, ranging from 5% to 8%, and there is a lack of official estimates from authoritative government bodies [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of using a trial-and-error approach in setting economic growth targets, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies when indicators such as inflation and employment are low [7] - Long-term factors influencing economic performance should not be used to explain short-term economic changes, as many intermediate factors affect current economic growth [8][9] - Macroeconomic regulation and structural reform are not mutually exclusive; both are necessary to address complex economic issues [10][11] - The article discusses the significance of the "Four Trillion Yuan Stimulus Plan" and its long-term effects on China's economic growth and financial stability [17][18] - It highlights the relationship between monetary policy and real estate regulation, noting that fluctuations in monetary policy often correlate with changes in housing prices [29][31] - The article critiques the belief that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, presenting evidence of instances where inflation rates did not align with monetary supply growth [22][23][24] - It concludes that the lessons learned from over 20 years of macroeconomic regulation in China emphasize the importance of maintaining growth as a fundamental objective [33]

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates that the next important time point may be in the late third quarter of 2025, with a suggested asset allocation order of stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [2][4] - In the first half of 2025, China's actual GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual target of 5.0% [2][4] - Economic data from July shows signs of growth pressure, including weakened external demand due to increased tariffs from the US and sluggish domestic consumption [2][4] Asset Performance - The A-share market saw an increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.37% and the CSI 300 stock index futures up by 2.83% [11][12] - Commodity futures showed mixed results, with coking coal futures up by 0.33% and iron ore down by 1.65% [11][12] - The yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 6 basis points to 1.75%, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.26% [11][12] Policy Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand in the second half of the year, suggesting that policies should be implemented to enhance efficiency and release domestic demand [2][4] - It is noted that the fiscal policy may have room for further adjustments within the year, particularly in light of external pressures easing due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4] Sector Performance - The report highlights that the TMT sector has shown significant growth, with the ChiNext index leading with an 8.58% increase, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index at 4.55% [35][36] - The report also notes that the banking sector has faced declines, with a drop of 3.22% [35][36] Financial Data - In July, new social financing amounted to 1.13 trillion yuan, while new RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan, indicating weak financing demand in the real economy [4][17] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a relatively strong liquidity environment despite weak economic indicators [4][17]

Policy Framework - The monetary policy maintains continuity and stability, focusing on implementation and detail, with a target growth rate of 5% for the year[1] - The emphasis has shifted from increasing credit to stabilizing credit support, indicating a structural adjustment in policy focus[2] Credit and Structural Tools - Structural tools are highlighted as key policy instruments, with support directed towards technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade[2] - Loans in technology, green finance, inclusive finance, and digital sectors account for approximately 70% of new credit, replacing real estate and infrastructure as the main sources of credit growth[2] Efficiency and Cost Reduction - The report stresses the importance of preventing fund idling and improving the efficiency of monetary policy transmission, contrasting with previous reports that did not mention this[3] - The focus on reducing financing costs continues, with plans to enhance the central bank's policy rate guidance and improve the market-based interest rate formation mechanism[4] Economic Outlook - The external environment is described as increasingly complex, with weakened global economic growth and rising trade barriers, particularly due to U.S. tariffs[4] - Domestic demand remains insufficient, with ongoing risks and challenges in the economy, despite some positive signs in inflation trends[5] Inflation and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that inflation may see a reasonable rebound due to various factors, including the impact of policies aimed at boosting consumption and addressing low-price competition[6] - The overall monetary policy signals a focus on detailed implementation, maintaining previous levels of support while emphasizing structural adjustments to stimulate domestic demand[6]