Core Insights - The discussion between Howard Marks and Chen Guangming focuses on the current global economic situation, investment strategies, and market opportunities [1][3][4] - Marks expresses optimism about the U.S. economy, stating it remains in a "sustained good state" despite trade policy uncertainties introduced by Trump [1][2][8] - Both Marks and Chen emphasize the importance of intrinsic value in investment decisions, advocating for a long-term, patient approach to investing [1][2][12] Group 1: U.S. Economic Outlook - Marks believes the U.S. economy is vibrant and continues to perform well, despite the volatility caused by Trump's trade policies [2][8][10] - Chen agrees that the U.S. remains a highly rewarding investment destination for the coming decades, dismissing notions of the end of "American exceptionalism" [2][10] - The recent downgrade of U.S. Treasury bonds is viewed as having minimal practical implications, with the default probability only slightly increasing from 0.5% to 1% [2][17] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Marks emphasizes that investment decisions should start with the assessment of the investment target rather than macroeconomic predictions [12][28] - Both Marks and Chen advocate for maintaining composure during market volatility and focusing on long-term value creation [12][39] - Chen highlights the need for investors to resist emotional impulses, especially in a volatile market environment [27][39] Group 3: Chinese Market Insights - Chen points out that many Chinese companies may be undervalued, citing the example of DeepSeek as a sign of China's potential in technology and innovation [1][21][24] - Marks acknowledges that the U.S. does not monopolize technological advancements, recognizing China's competitive capabilities in sectors like AI [21][22] - Chen expresses optimism about China's long-term economic strength and the potential for significant returns from investments in Chinese companies [24][28] Group 4: Market Volatility and Investment Strategy - Marks and Chen agree that market volatility can create opportunities for value investors, particularly during downturns [12][20][31] - Chen notes that during periods of uncertainty, it is crucial to focus on companies that continue to generate cash flow and maintain intrinsic value [14][27] - Marks stresses the importance of understanding that market fluctuations often exaggerate the perceived changes in company fundamentals [34][39]

" 在艰难时刻敢于出手非常关键。 这不是'接飞刀'，这恰恰是我们的专业所在。 " " 我们都认同的一个核心观点是： 投资的 关键在于能客观评估出真实的价值。当市场波动导致价格偏 离价值时，我们应该利用这种波动来获利，而不是被它牵着走。 " "中国乐观的一面，现在正在慢慢地展现给全球的投资人，我们相信，随着时间的推移可能会有越来越 多的投资人，尤其是海外投资人会意识到中国长期发展的潜力。" 今晚中金财富 "云会客厅"， 睿远基金创始人陈光明 与 橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯 进行了一 场对话。 这也是两人第三次的公开交流。话题从关税政策谈到美债利率，从 DeepSeek引发的中美科技竞争谈到 熊市中的信心与逆向操作，而他们不约而同强调的，始终是"看清内在价值"的能力与"长期坚守"的信 念。 谈到4月份的市场巨大波动，两人都默契承认，当时自己所在机构"积极买入"、 "有明显加仓动作"，因 为市场情绪提供了买便宜货的机会。 整场对话没有宏大叙事，也没有预测市场的喧哗判断，更多的是两位老派价值投资者在不确定时代中对 投资常识的深度共鸣。 聪明投资者 （ID: Capital-nature） 整理全程，原汁原味分享 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that domestic corporate profits remain under pressure, with capital and risk appetite driving the A-share market's upward fluctuations. The financial sectors such as banks, non-banking financial institutions, pharmaceuticals, and telecommunications are expected to lead this trend, with an anticipated increase in risk appetite by late July [3][4][12]. - As of May, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises above designated size turned negative year-on-year, and the manufacturing PMI for June was at 49.7, indicating marginal improvement but still below the growth line. Only six industries have seen upward adjustments in profit expectations for 2025, including steel, social services, and media, suggesting that corporate profit growth remains in a bottoming phase [4][12][17]. - The overall profitability indicators, ROA and ROE, remain weak, with banks, steel, and transportation showing relatively better performance [4][12]. Group 2 - Micro liquidity is showing a net inflow trend, with equity mutual funds issuing 272.6 billion units since the beginning of the year, and the margin trading scale has continued to see net inflows since May. Northbound capital saw a significant increase in Q2, with a net inflow of 61.7 billion, compared to 13.5 billion in Q1, particularly in sectors like power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and telecommunications [5][13]. - The issuance of special government bonds and the recent political meetings are expected to enhance market risk appetite. The path from special bonds to bank capital supplementation and interest rate cuts is clear, benefiting overall macro liquidity [6][14]. Group 3 - The investment strategy recommends three main lines: first, sectors like banks and public utilities that represent bond-like characteristics due to weak profits and strong liquidity; second, sectors such as photovoltaics, live pigs, and glass that are expected to benefit from policy negotiations and rising risk appetite; third, sectors like pharmaceuticals and telecommunications that will benefit from incremental capital inflows [7][16]. - The report anticipates that the trade war is likely to settle in the third quarter, with the narrative of "American exceptionalism" potentially returning to market focus, leading to a resurgence of the dollar and U.S. stocks [7][41].

Group 1 - The performance of major markets has diverged significantly in the first half of the year, with the Dow Jones up 3.64%, Nasdaq up 5.48%, and S&P 500 up 5.50%, while the KOSPI index surged 28.04%, DAX index rose 20.09%, Hang Seng index increased by 20.00%, and IBOVESPA index grew by 15.59% [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a nearly 14% increase in the first half of the year, marking the best performance for the same period since 2017 [1] - The shift of capital from the US to Europe and Asia is evident, driven by the US government's tariff policies and the resulting uncertainty in the US market [1][3] Group 2 - The US has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with expectations that this may become a norm due to political and policy uncertainties [2] - The rising US debt and persistent fiscal deficits are undermining market confidence and financial stability, leading to a potential decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets [2][5] - If the US does not effectively manage its debt, the long-term risk of a decline in dollar assets may increase, prompting investors to diversify into other assets [5] Group 3 - The economic growth in Europe and Asia is relatively stable, with declining interest rates attracting more capital, as investors seek value in previously underperforming markets [4] - The capital cycle that traditionally supported US assets is being challenged, leading to accelerated "de-dollarization" among global economies [4][7] - The potential for a financial crisis exists if the US continues to expand its debt, which could disrupt the global financial chain [7] Group 4 - The US dollar index has dropped over 10% in the first half of the year, the largest decline since 1973, attributed to slowing economic growth and rising debt levels [6] - The demand for long-term debt is raising concerns about a "gray rhino" risk, which could lead to a debt crisis affecting global financial markets [7] - Stablecoins are seen as a potential support for US debt, but they come with regulatory and liquidity risks that need to be addressed [8] Group 5 - Hong Kong is positioned as a leading area for stablecoin development, with expectations for enhanced regulatory frameworks and international cooperation [9] - By 2025, global capital is anticipated to continue flowing into emerging markets and digital assets, reshaping the global market landscape [10] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts may influence market stability, with potential implications for both US and Asia-Pacific markets [11] Group 6 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors, with expectations for continued growth [12] - A-share markets are expected to catch up with Hong Kong stocks, driven by government policies aimed at stimulating economic growth and innovation [12]

2025年中期策略展望 己日革之，待时而动 西南证券研究院 策略团队 程睿智 2025年7月 目录 一、海外：财政风险暴露,指示潜在的全球流动性冲击 二、国内：通缩预期缓解，激活持续淤积的自由超额流动性 三、A股：狭窄区间内的快速轮动 财政风险暴露 四、行业配置思路 1 流动性层级 市场流动性 全球气候 /降雨雪山融水 • 全球美元 流动性 江河里的水 • 国内宏观 流动性 农田灌溉沟渠 里的水 • 市场流动性 经济+政治 经济+政策 外资流动+风偏传导 数据来源：西南证券整理 2 全球流动性 国内宏观流动性 从债的视角，80年代以来到2022年之前，10年期美债利率有一条长期下行通道。过去每次利率触碰到下 行通道上轨形成的美债拐点无不与联储宽松有关。然而这个通道已经在22年后被向上突破，世界从全球 化走向对抗的同时，全球经济的平稳状态已经被打破。 10年期美债利率的长期下行通道（%） 标普500走势（左轴，%） 和10年期美债（右轴，%） 数据来源： 3 wind，西南证券整理 财政风险暴露 美元美债的背离：23年Q3的重演；美债上，美元下，反映的是财政风险的计价更加极致。 美元美债的背离 数据来源：IMF ...

来自报告 来自报告《 美国"例外论"的终结——2025 年中期宏观经济展望 》 下半年，仍需防范美国经济超预期下行的风险——如果失业率升至4.4-4.6%区间，可能再次触 发"衰退交易"；美元汇率或将进一步贬值，人民币兑美元将随之升值，情形类似于2024年8-9 月。 关税2.0增加了下半年的商品贸易、工业生产和经济增长的不确定性。IMF 4月世界经济展望下修 2025年全球GDP增速预测至2.8%，较1月下降了0.5个百分点。其中，美国从2.7%下调到1.8%，降 幅0.9个百分点。 | 国家或地区 | 2024 | 2024年10月 | | 2025年1月 | | | 2025年4月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025F | 2026F | 2025F | 2026F | 2025F | 2026F | | 全球 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | | 发送经济体 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | | 美国 | ...

在创下自尼克松时代以来最差的上半年表现后，美元在进入下半年之际正面临多种逆风，这可能带来重 要的投资启示。 截至6月份，美元兑其全球同类货币下跌了10.7%，这是自1973年尼克松打破布雷顿森林金本位制以来 最糟糕的上半年。在其低点时，该货币触及了自2022年2月以来的最低水平。然而，前方的道路可能看 起来并不会光明多少。 这是因为许多相同的因素——政策的反复无常、不断膨胀的债务和赤字，以及美联储潜在的降息，而且 这些因素可能仍将停留在投资者的脑海中，因为他们正在寻求其他避险渠道。 "部分原因可能是早就该如此了，然后当然市场也给了外汇交易员足够多的催化剂，"B. Riley Wealth Management的首席市场策略师Art Hogan说。"你可以勾选很多选项来预测美元下行，美国正面临巨额赤 字，而且两党都不想阻止；在军事上和贸易上都在疏远朋友等等。美元有足够多的潜在负面催化剂。然 后一旦势头开始，就很难阻止了。" 确实，美元的下滑始于1月中旬，并且自那以后只偶尔显示出缓和的迹象。人们曾希望美国总统特朗普 的关税不会像想象中那么严厉，这在4月中旬引发了一次短暂的反弹，但大多数时候，向下的引力一直 更大。 ...

以下文章来源于美股投资网 ，作者美股分析师 TradesMax 美股投资网 . 美国洛杉矶投资公司，TradesMax.com为美股投资者提供美股行情和投资策略的专业网站。一支有着多年华尔街投资银行工作经验的美籍分析师团队，提 供公司研究报告、美股交易技巧、美股软件、美股开户指南、微信客服niugu88，微博美股投资网 来源 | 美股投资网 2025年上半年，在美股遭遇波动、通胀、关税等多重挑战的背景下，散户投资者不仅没有退缩，反而再次爆发出强大的交易热情。据纳斯达克 数据显示，散户买入股票金额高达3.4万亿美元，卖出3.2万亿美元，总交易额高达6.6万亿美元。 美股投资网认为，造成这一局面的关键原因之一，是"美国例外论"的盛行和特朗普"解放日"关税所引发的大规模抄底潮。随着美国在AI、能源、 科技等多个领域展现出相对全球的优势，许多散户坚定押注美国资产。英伟达、特斯拉、Palantir 等人气股交易活跃度居高不下，而追踪指数的 ETF，如SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 与 Invesco QQQ 也成为散户的重要买入标的。据Vanda测算，2025年上半年散户平均每日净流入达13亿美 元，较2 ...

智通财经APP获悉，2025年初，在美国反复无常的政策和德国百年一遇的财政政策转变的推动下，欧洲股市一度跑赢美国股市。但如今，美股已经迎头赶 上。截至上周五收盘，泛欧斯托克600指数今年迄今上涨了6.6%，标普500指数同一时期内的涨幅为6.8%，而在3月时，泛欧斯托克600指数曾跑赢标普500指 数达10个百分点。 尽管欧股相较于美股的优势已经不再，但欧洲在汇率方面的优势依然存在。截至目前，欧元兑美元汇率今年已上涨了14%。瑞银资产管理全球主权市场策略 主管Max Castelli表示，美欧资产轮动的关键考验在于贸易谈判以及美国新出台的减税和支出法案。他表示："我不认为'美国例外论'会以同样的力度和强度 卷土重来，但我也不会排除欧洲资产相对于美国产品的这段大幅跑赢期已经结束的可能。" 以下是美欧市场表现对比的详细分析。 科技股卷土重来 State Street Global Markets股票研究主管(Marija Veitmane表示，美国股市从4月中旬开始反弹，部分原因是"贸易战转向了贸易谈判"，但"真正的转折点"出现 在财报季，"科技公司的CEO站出来说'我们的盈利将会非常强劲'"。 科技板块约占标普 ...

规模与优势并不总是成正比，但在全球投资领域，"大"与"强"的关联性却显而易见。美国金融体系犹如一颗独立运转的星球，凭借强大 的资金引力，让美国企业与政府得以持续获取低成本资本。这种资本优势不仅降低了企业运营成本，更赋予其竞争壁垒与超额回报能 力，进而形成吸引全球资金的良性循环。 什么是"美国例外论"? 经济学家将这种独特吸引力称为"美国例外论"，这一概念源自政治理论中的"美国灯塔论"，即美国作为民主自由典范的全球仲裁者地 位。然而在唐纳德.特朗普第二任期内，贸易保护主义升级、司法部门冲突加剧、美联储独立性受挑战等系列举措，正让投资者重新审 视美国作为投资圣地的地位。近期美元走弱、美债"避险光环"褪色、全球央行增持黄金等现象，似乎印证着这种转变。但值得注意的 是，美国股市仍屡创新高，展现强劲韧性。 关于"美国例外论"的界定存在多维解读：有人聚焦其资产表现与全球市场的脱钩现象，即美债美股长期突破历史估值预期仍持续走强;有 人归因于制度优势，包括高效的资本市场、创新的科技生态、友好的营商环境，以及特朗普首任期推动的企业减税政策。美国商业仲裁 体系的独立性、务实的企业友好型政策制定，配合高频强劲的经济数据发布，共同构 ...