1月12日，在鲍威尔可能面临刑事调查的消息刺激下，贵金属板块高开高走，黄金与白银价格双双创历 史新高。 "鲍威尔被刑事调查的消息，同时从美联储独立性受损和货币政策路径不确定性两个维度，直接或间接 推动黄金、白银价格再创新高。其中，美联储独立性受损属于永久性的制度层面伤害，将对贵金属价格 形成长期趋势性支撑；而货币政策路径的不确定性，更多作用于短期市场预期，会加剧贵金属价格的阶 段性波动。"南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹说。 "美联储独立性被侵蚀并非孤立事件，而是与美债可持续性问题凸显、美国两党政治分歧加剧等长期历 史遗留问题深度关联，这也决定了其对贵金属价格的支撑具备较强的持续性。"夏莹莹表示，后续需要 观察三个信号：一是新任美联储主席人选及其政策立场表态；二是美国2026年中期选举的进程与选情变 化；三是美联储议息会议的政策声明与点阵图调整。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 "宽松预期升温对贵金属的提振路径清晰可循：一是会压低美债收益率与市场利率，进而降低持有黄金 的机会成本，显著提升黄金的投资需求； ...

会议将发布的季度经济预测和利率点阵图也至关重要。白雪表示，市场将从中解读美联储对2026年经济 增长、通胀和失业率的预测，更重要的是，点阵图将揭示官员们对2026年及以后利率路径的中位数预 期，目前市场定价约为52个基点（约两次降息）。 周四凌晨，美联储将公布利率决议和经济预期摘要。 市场普遍预期，美联储12月降息已"板上钉钉"，但本次会议的核心悬念已非利率本身。在内部立场严重 分化、通胀与就业目标相互冲突的背景下，未来的政策路径指引以及鲍威尔如何平衡"鹰鸽"信号成为焦 点。同时，明年美联储主席换届也为货币政策增添了不确定性。 市场关注未来政策路径指引 11月ADP就业数据的意外转负叠加弱于预期的9月PCE价格指数，令市场押注美联储12月降息基本已 经"板上钉钉"。芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，12月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）降息25个基点的可 能性目前接近90%。 然而，本次会议作为美联储主席鲍威尔近八年任期内内部"分裂"最为严重的一次议息会议，利率本身已 不再是市场瞩目的看点，真正的悬念和焦点在于未来的政策路径指引。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对上证报记者表示，美联储内部存在显著分歧，部分官员对 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 12 月鹰派降息或在预期之内，未来货币政 策路径或在会议之外 研究结论 风险提示 美联储降息不及预期的风险。 美国经济陷入衰退的风险。 通胀超预期上行的风险。 模型测算存在偏差的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 09 日 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 戴思崴 | 执业证书编号：S086052 ...

宏观|专题报告 2025 年 12 月 5 日 美联储"影子主席"的预期与现实 国联期货研究所 证监许可[2011]1773 号 从业资格证号：F3055965 投资咨询证书号：Z0001999 秩序重构浪涌急，应变守机 稳驭舟 格局深化 经济循环，走出低通胀 待春雷 王娜 相关研究报告： 2025 年中期宏观经济展望： 美联储"影子主席"的预期：在 2026 年 5 月正式任命之前，美联 储继任主席在履新前以"影子主席"身份将密集公开表态传递激进鸽派 倾向，明确主张"大幅降息是正确方向"，通过传递白宫经济意图，引 导市场关注重塑预期框架、与鹰派立场对冲削弱官方沟通效力等方式进 行预期管理，塑造降息路径预期。市场将提前交易宽松预期，大类资产 价格呈现鲜明的政策预期驱动特征：美元指数倾向于走弱，美债收益率 整体呈现下行态势，大宗商品市场重心持续上移，贵金属作为零息资产 直接受益于降息预期下的实际利率下行，叠加美元走弱，成为宽松交易 的核心标的；其余商品依托"宽松政策提振经济需求"的逻辑获得支撑。 "影子主席"与鲍威尔后续出现观点冲突，或者市场宽松预期因美联储 部分官员倾向维持现状而遇挫，可能会加大各类资产的波动 ...

消息面： 黄金价格周一显著上扬，现货黄金上涨近1.7%，报每盎司4111.86美元，主要受益于市场对美联储将于12月降息的预期 不断增强。12月交割的美国黄金期货同步收高0.4%，结算价报每盎司4094.2美元。道明证券大宗商品策略主管Bart Melek表示："市场越来越确信美联储将在12月实施降息。"这一预期在数据层面得到支撑——芝商所FedWatch工具显 示，目前市场对12月降息的预期概率已升至85%。投资者的关注焦点现已转向本周即将发布的多项关键经济数据，包 括零售销售、失业救济金申请人数和生产者物价指数，这些因政府停摆而推迟发布的数据将为货币政策路径提供更清 晰指引。与此同时，地缘因素继续为金价提供支撑。美国和乌克兰周一继续进行会谈，商讨结束俄乌冲突的方案，双 方同意修改早前被批评对莫斯科过于有利的美国提案。 4小时图胶着震荡当中，震荡且反复。并没形成单边趋势，仍在等待月线的形态确认。在短线图收缩震荡反复洗盘的 阶段。结合日线图今日靠近了上轨阻力区域。今日短线思路围绕上轨4170-4180附近依旧看空防守放在4200目标看回 4100下方4050-4000减个仓再下看。 国际白银： 白银上周五探底 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices in Shanghai opened lower and continued to decline, closing down by 0.91% due to weakened macroeconomic sentiment and cooling expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent hawkish statements from some Federal Reserve officials have contributed to a decline in interest rate cut expectations for December, leading to weakened risk appetite in the market [1] - Precious metals have seen significant corrections, and non-ferrous metals are generally softening as a result of the macroeconomic environment [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain around -40 USD per dry ton, indicating a tight supply situation that is unlikely to improve significantly [1] - Despite high copper prices, social inventory depletion has been limited, and the recent drop in copper prices has led to an expansion of spot premiums [1] - Feedback from downstream sectors indicates some improvement in consumption performance, but the extent and sustainability of this improvement remain uncertain [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The financial reports from mining companies suggest limited adjustments in copper mine increments, maintaining the logic of raw material tightness [1] - The smelting sector is expected to see a continued month-on-month decline in production [1] - Import and export dynamics indicate a potential slight decrease in arrivals in November, while domestic exports may continue [1] - The market outlook suggests a high-level fluctuation in copper prices in the short term, with no significant downward pressure anticipated [1]

这一切都发生在一个充满挑战的时刻。投资者不仅要应对美国政府停摆造成的经济数据荒，而且现有的指标也显示劳动力市 场疲软，通胀持续高企。美联储正被严重政治化，特朗普政府在抨击美联储独立性的同时，还准备提名明年接替鲍威尔的人 选。 鹰派和鸽派 由19名成员组成的委员会在任何时候都会有12名有投票权的成员，其中包括美联储理事和11家地区联储总裁。 今日 Ultima Markets 为您带来了美联储内部分歧与货币政策路径的深度解析。关键词：美联储分歧、鲍威尔领导力、双向异 议、降息政策、鹰鸽博弈、货币政策路径、经济不确定性 简介：聚焦美联储降息决策中的内部分化态势，解析鲍威尔共识领导力面临的挑战，探讨鹰鸽博弈与经济不确定性对后续利 率政策的影响，助您把握美联储货币政策调整中的市场预期与趋势变化。 随着经济不确定性迷雾日趋浓厚，美联储19人货币政策制定委员会内部的分歧和异议也在加深，这对主席鲍威尔建立共识的 能力提出了终极考验。 美联储上周的降息决定符合市场预期，但这次会议却具有历史意义。美联储以10票赞成、两票反对的结果将指标利率区间下 调25个基点，这是自1990年以来，第三次在拥有投票权的决策者中同时出现双向异议 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the risk of a "re-acceleration" of the U.S. economy is rising, which could lead to a significantly different monetary policy path by 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is showing strong performance across multiple key indicators, with Goldman Sachs' U.S. Macro Surprise Index recently surging and initial jobless claims data being encouraging [2] - Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research (GIR) expects the U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 to reach a healthy 2.6% on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, providing strong support for growth in the first half of next year [2] Group 2: Factors Driving Economic Re-acceleration - Key factors contributing to the risk of economic re-acceleration include: - Loose financial conditions characterized by strong performance of risk assets, expectations of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and a weaker dollar [3] - Anticipated positive fiscal policy impulses in the first half of next year, along with continued capital expenditure in the artificial intelligence sector [3] - A solid consumer base in the U.S. and the impact of deregulation [3][4] Group 3: Monetary Policy Path - The monetary policy path for 2025 and 2026 presents a starkly different scenario, heavily influenced by the new Federal Reserve chair's policy inclinations [5] - Current statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicate that recent job growth is below the "breakeven" level, suggesting a potential normalization of policy rates closer to neutral levels (3%-3.5% range) [6] - Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario anticipates rate cuts of 25 basis points in both October and December of this year [6] Group 4: Market Reactions to Policy Expectations - If the market expects the policy rate to remain low (indicating the Fed will not effectively tighten policy), the appropriate trades would be to go long on longer-dated breakeven inflation rates, gold, and continue holding risk assets [8] - Conversely, if the market believes the Fed will respond to economic re-acceleration by tightening policy, the U.S. Treasury yield curve should steepen [9] - The current SFRM6/M8 spread, which measures mid-term rate expectations for 2026, is hovering around flat (currently -5 basis points), indicating that the market has not fully priced in rate hike risks [10] - In this scenario, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield curve (2s10s) is also expected to steepen [11]

Economic Data and Events - Investors should closely monitor key economic data and events this week, including speeches from Federal Reserve officials, ISM manufacturing data, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, as these will provide insights into the Fed's monetary policy path and influence gold prices [1] Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market experienced a downward trend last week due to a rapid decline in risk aversion, breaking below the critical level of 3300, resulting in a small bearish candle [1] - The weekly chart indicates that gold has fallen below the MA10 support, with the MACD indicator forming a death cross at high levels, suggesting potential further decline towards the MA20 [1] - The daily chart shows that bullish momentum has halted, with the moving averages in a tight range, and although the MACD has formed a death cross, it is near the zero line, indicating limited downside potential before a breakout [1] - Short-term trading strategy for gold suggests focusing on buying on dips around 3290, with a stop loss at 3282 and a target of 3320-3340 [1] Silver Market Analysis - The daily chart for silver shows a small candlestick with a notably low wick, resembling a potential doji pattern, indicating market indecision between buyers and sellers [3] - The support level at 35.12, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from April to June, provides a solid technical base, while resistance above may limit short-term gains [3] - Domestic silver futures are trading above 8765, with a slight increase of 0.09%, indicating a bullish short-term outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is unable to commit to a specific interest rate path due to high uncertainty stemming from U.S. trade policies and the situation in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Economic Uncertainty - Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB, highlighted that the most significant uncertainty for future monetary policy is the unpredictable U.S. trade policies [1] - The impact of U.S. tariffs, implemented under Trump's administration, remains unclear, particularly whether they will lead to inflation or deflation [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The situation in the Middle East is also a critical factor contributing to the uncertainty surrounding the ECB's monetary policy decisions [1]