1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for the Canadian dollar is maintained as neutral to bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The global market is in a super interest - rate decision week. The Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%, while the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep rates unchanged. The weakening of the Canadian dollar is due to factors such as the poor economic fundamentals of Canada and external risks [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Economic Data and Interest - Rate Expectations - US inflation growth in August met economists' expectations, with the CPI rising 2.9% year - on - year and core inflation rising 3.1% year - on - year [1] - The Bank of Canada kept its interest rate at 2.75% in July, the fourth consecutive time. Officials discussed rate cuts but decided to maintain. Traders expect a 0.25 - point rate cut this month due to the shrinking economy and poor employment [2] - Canada's Q2 GDP shrank 1.6% year - on - year, the first contraction in nearly two years and the largest since the COVID - 19 pandemic, worse than the expected 0.6% decline. The unemployment rate in August rose to 7.1% from 6.9% in July, the highest in 9 years [2] Currency Outlook - The Canadian dollar is short - term bearish. The US dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate is around 1.376 and is expected to fluctuate between 1.372 and 1.392 in the short term [3]

（原标题：加纳港口管理混乱推高贸易风险） 据"城市新闻网"8月27日报道，加纳进出口协会（IEAG）指控有政治背景的垄 断集团操控港口易腐货物拍卖，称此举严重冲击企业、削弱投资者信心，且与加纳 持续外汇短缺直接相关——进口商因难以及时获取美元，无法完成货物清关。 未清关的货物本应有60天宽限期，却被不明原因地缩短至仅 21 天。这一漏洞 被具有政治背景的商人利用：他们以低价收购这些货物，过程常无公示与合法程 序。原进口商不仅失去自己的货物，还需承担高额的滞港费。而不法商人通常只需 支付6000至10000塞地的服务费。这种欺诈性机制不仅剥夺了进口商的资金，还使 国家错失了宝贵的财政收入。 ...

国际法、贸易专家提示，未来需在以下三方面预防风险：第一，来自美方更多的垂直行业调查，譬 如"232调查"、"337调查"等，其危害不逊于所谓"对等关税"；第二，由于外溢效应，中国外贸企 业恐怕要预防更多的来自其他国家的"双反"调查；第三，其他突发叠加关税（二级制裁关税）和惩 罚性关税等。 一位税务专家也对笔者坦言，现在美国的关税条目混乱且并不详细。不少外贸企业对于产品品类如何 报税也产生了疑惑，譬如，如果家具品类中出口钢制家具的企业，究竟是钢铝关税先征收一遍，未来 家具关税再征收一遍，究竟怎么算？ 诸多疑惑，请看下文知晓。 特朗普政府以关税作为其施政的重要内容手段，关税威胁并未伴随所谓"对等关税"的公布而结束， 但绝大部分经济体并不具备同美国维持"恐怖平衡"的能力，因而特朗普政府的关税政策将大概率贯 穿其"2.0时期"，并且不断地发生动态变化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - India has surpassed China to become the largest exporter of smartphones to the United States, according to reports from CNN and Bloomberg, but this narrative omits several complexities surrounding the situation [1]. Group 1: Export Data - In the second quarter of this year, India's share of foreign-manufactured smartphones imported by the U.S. reached 44%, a significant increase from 13% in the same period last year [2]. - Conversely, China's share dropped from 61% to 25%, placing it behind India and Vietnam [2]. - The report also highlighted a 240% year-on-year increase in smartphone shipments from India [2]. Group 2: Apple’s Production Shift - The changes in export dynamics are primarily attributed to Apple relocating part of its iPhone production from China to India to mitigate risks associated with U.S.-China trade relations [5]. - Despite the assembly of iPhones in India, many components are still sourced from China, indicating a continued reliance on Chinese manufacturing [5]. Group 3: Challenges in India - India faces significant challenges in infrastructure, skilled labor, and production processes, which could hinder its manufacturing capabilities [8]. - The cost of producing iPhones in India is reportedly 5%-10% higher than in China due to these limitations [8]. - Additionally, there are concerns regarding potential tariffs from the U.S. government, as past statements from former President Trump indicated a preference for iPhone production to occur in the U.S. rather than India [8]. Group 4: Trade Relations and Risks - Recent threats from Trump to impose higher tariffs on India due to its trade barriers and relations with Russia further complicate the situation for Apple and its operations in India [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing bubble risk in the U.S. stock market due to rising speculative activities and leverage levels, as warned by major investment banks [1][4][12] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs strategists noted that speculative trading activities have reached historical highs, second only to the 2000 internet bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [2][6] - Deutsche Bank pointed out that margin debt has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, indicating a "heated" level of borrowing to invest in stocks [3][10] - Bank of America reiterated the bubble risk, attributing it to loose monetary policies and relaxed financial regulations, suggesting that increased retail participation leads to greater liquidity and volatility [4][14][16] Group 3 - The speculative trading indicator from Goldman Sachs shows that the proportion of trading in unprofitable stocks and overvalued stocks has increased, with significant activity in major tech companies and firms involved in digital assets [8][7] - Deutsche Bank reported an 18.5% increase in margin debt over two months, marking the fastest pace of leverage since late 1999 or mid-2007 [10][11] - Bank of America forecasts that the global policy interest rate will decrease further, potentially leading to larger market bubbles [14][18]

金十数据7月28日讯，印度财政部表示，由于美国总统特朗普的关税政策持续存在不确定性，印度的贸 易表现可能在未来几个季度受到影响。商务部在周一发布的月度经济报告中表示，全球经济放缓，尤其 是美国经济放缓，可能抑制对印度出口的需求。"美国关税方面的持续不确定性可能会在未来几个季度 拖累印度的贸易表现。" 特朗普关税和全球经济放缓背景下 印度警告称存在贸易风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The risk of a bubble in the U.S. stock market is increasing, as warned by Michael Hartnett, a prominent analyst at Bank of America [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - Global policy rates have decreased from 4.8% last year to 4.4%, with expectations of further reduction to 3.9% in the next 12 months [3] - U.S. policymakers are considering regulatory reforms to increase retail investor participation, which could lead to greater liquidity and volatility in the market [4] - Despite higher tariffs, the U.S. stock market has rebounded to historical highs due to optimism about economic growth and corporate profits [4] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Fund managers are entering risk assets at a record pace, pushing market sentiment to multi-month highs, with a significant increase in allocations to U.S. stocks and technology stocks [6][7] - The proportion of investors believing that the economy will not enter a recession has reversed, indicating a shift in sentiment [7] - Hartnett warns that the current bullish sentiment may signal a potential sell-off, as the cash level held by fund managers has dropped below 4.0%, which is considered a "sell signal" [6][8] Group 3: Market Indicators - Hartnett identifies several indicators of market overheating, including low cash allocation, high expectations for a soft landing, and excessive net stock allocation [8] - Despite the risks, Hartnett does not anticipate a major sell-off this summer, as stock exposure has not reached "extreme" levels [9] - High levels of consensus among investors regarding risk assets and the S&P 500 may create vulnerabilities, as any minor data change could trigger rapid adjustments [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia currently poses limited risks to trade and tourism, with experts taking a wait-and-see approach to assess future impacts [1] Trade Impact - The conflict has negatively affected overall economic confidence and disrupted trade and investment between the two countries [1] - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's exports to Cambodia are projected to reach $5.1 billion, primarily including jewelry, oil, and sugar [1] - Thailand's imports from Cambodia are valued at $732 million, mainly consisting of fruits and vegetables [1] Tourism Impact - The conflict is geographically distant from major tourist destinations like Bangkok and Phuket, minimizing immediate effects on tourism [1] - Expedia reported no significant changes in travel search volumes for these destinations [1] - The chairman of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, Chai Arunanondchai, stated that the current border conflict is not expected to impact Thailand's tourism industry [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Domestic market optimism is fermenting, and risk assets are continuously strong. Overseas, the outlook for the EU - US trade agreement is worrying, but the overall trade risk has decreased. The US Treasury Secretary will soon talk with China. The US dollar index and US bond yields have declined, and global risk appetite has increased. In China, economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policies to boost domestic risk appetite have been introduced. Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to be short - term strong with caution for long positions; bonds are at a high level with cautious observation; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Overall situation**: Overseas trade risks decrease, and the US dollar and bond yields fall. In China, economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slow down. Policies boost domestic risk appetite. Stocks are short - term strong, bonds are high - level volatile, and commodities have different trends [2]. - **Stock index**: Driven by sectors like hydropower, construction machinery, etc., the domestic stock market rises. The short - term macro - upward drive is enhanced, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Precious metals**: On Monday, the precious metal market rose. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline supports precious metals. The short - term gold is in a box - shaped range, and silver has a strong technical rebound logic. The long - term support for gold remains [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Monday, the steel spot and futures markets rose, and trading volume increased. Policy and project news boost market sentiment. Real demand is weak, but there are differences among varieties. Supply decreases, and the cost support is strong. The steel market is expected to be short - term strong [5][6]. - **Iron ore**: On Monday, the iron ore spot and futures prices rebounded. Steel mills have high profits, and iron water production increased. The short - term price is expected to be strong [6]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: On Monday, the prices rebounded slightly. Demand decreased, and the cost of raw materials changed. The production rhythm is stable, and the price may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda ash**: On Monday, the price rose significantly. Supply is in an over - supply pattern, demand is weak, and profits decline. The short - term price is supported by policies, but the long - term is suppressed [8]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the price rose. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and demand is weak. Profits increase, and the price is supported by policies [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time. Short - term, the growth - stabilizing plan is favorable to the price [10]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory is in a cumulative trend, and the fundamentals are weak. The price increase is limited [10]. - **Aluminum alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, production costs rise, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be strong but with limited upside [10]. - **Tin**: Supply is better than expected, and demand is weak. The short - term price is volatile, and the medium - term upside is limited [11]. - **Lithium carbonate**: On Monday, the price rose. Supply increases, inventory accumulates. Affected by policies, it is expected to be strong with attention to macro - disturbances [12]. - **Industrial silicon**: On Monday, the price rose. Production is stable, supply decreases, and the price is driven by manufacturers and policies. It is expected to be strong [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the price rose. After policy adjustment, the price increased. It is expected to be strong with attention to market feedback [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: Due to trade negotiation progress and Russian oil exports, the oil price is expected to be weak in the short term [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price is strong but lacks upward drive. Demand in the peak season is average, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [15]. - **PX**: It maintains a tight pattern, and the price is supported by the sector. The upward space is limited [16]. - **PTA**: The basis is at a flat level, and demand is low. The price is volatile, and there is a risk of production reduction [16]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Inventory decreases slightly, but demand is low. The short - term price is volatile [16]. - **Short - fiber**: The price follows the polyester sector and is weak. Orders are average, and inventory is high [17]. - **Methanol**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and the price is expected to be weak [17][18]. - **PP**: Supply pressure increases, demand is weak, and the price center is expected to move down [18]. - **LLDPE**: Demand is weak, inventory rises. The short - term price may rebound, but the long - term center will move down [18]. Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The soybean good - quality rate decreased, and high - temperature risks need attention [19]. - **Soybean/canola meal**: The soybean meal is in a weak - basis and inventory - accumulating pattern. The canola meal consumption is lower than expected. The short - term price is high - level volatile [20]. - **Soybean/canola oil**: Soybean oil inventory pressure is high, and canola oil has no fundamental support. The price is affected by palm oil [21]. - **Palm oil**: Domestic inventory increases, and the short - term price has resistance. The Malaysian palm oil export may improve, which may support the price [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite ongoing trade tensions and economic weakness, Canada's main stock index outperformed the U.S. benchmark index in the first half of the year, driven by record increases in gold prices [1] - As of June 30, the S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 8.6% year-to-date, surpassing the S&P 500's 5.5% increase during the same period, with a 15% increase in U.S. dollar terms [1] - Investors have flocked to gold and precious metal mining stocks as a hedge against risks from U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, contributing to the rise of the Toronto index [1] Group 2 - Four out of the top ten performing stocks in the first half were precious metal stocks, with Agnico Eagle Mines and Wheaton Precious Metals among them, and Lundin Gold leading with a nearly 135% increase [3] - There is uncertainty about whether the gold-led rally will continue in the second half of the year as geopolitical and trade risks have diminished, leading to a decline in gold prices [3] - Despite the challenges, there are other growth opportunities in Canadian stocks, as global investors are injecting funds into the Toronto Stock Exchange due to its high exposure to materials, energy, and financial sectors [3] Group 3 - The new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is advocating for a pro-investment and growth-oriented economic agenda, which could positively impact the market [4] - The S&P/TSX Composite Index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 17, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 24, indicating potential valuation opportunities [4] - There is a fundamental story based on government policy changes and a valuation story for Canadian stocks, suggesting a favorable investment environment [4]