据中国人民银行（以下简称央行）官网消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年10月9日， 央行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重 价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 10月9日，中国人民银行还以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了6120亿元7天期逆回购操作，投标量6120亿元，中标量6120亿元，操作 利率1.40%，与此前持平。据Wind数据，当日逆回购到期量高达20633亿元。 | 期限 | 操作利率 | 投标量 | 中标量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7天 | 1.40% | 6120亿元 | 6120亿元 | 市场分析认为，此举旨在应对资金面收紧压力，稳定市场预期。综合来看，10月政府债券还会进行较大规模发行；9月29日，国家发 展改革委宣布，当前正在加快推进5000亿元新型政策性金融工具相关工作，预计接下来会较大幅度拉动配套贷款投放。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青称，10月将有8000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，由此央行10月9日开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操 作，意味着10月3个月期买断式逆回购加量续作3000亿元。此外，10月还有500 ...

从最新数据来看，前8个月，固定资产投资累计同比降至0.5%，其中基建投资（不含电力）累计同比下 降至2.0%，已连续四个月环比逐月下降；8月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下 降；8月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.4%，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降2.9%。 展望四季度，宏观政策将坚持"稳中求进"总基调，财政政策与货币政策协同发力，重点在于提升政策效 能与市场预期。 当前，中国经济正处于转型升级的关键期，短期波动不改长期向好基本面。四季度是全年经济收官的冲 刺阶段，更是政策发力的重要窗口期。《证券日报》记者采访了多位业内人士，深入剖析四季度宏观经 济走势，精准探寻政策发力点。 广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家连平认为，为推动经济平稳增长，保障实现年初确定的预期目 标，四季度需尽快完善、下达"两重"建设和中央预算内投资项目清单，加快地方专项债、一般国债、超 长期特别国债等的发行与资金落地，尽快形成扩大内需的实际政策效果。 货币政策方面，伍超明预计或将保持连续性、稳定性，维持宽松基调和流动性充裕状况不变；但面对银 行息差压力、居民存款收益下降、政策效果不佳等制约，加之经济循环改善、物价回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents six policy recommendations aimed at promoting stable economic growth and addressing current economic challenges, including limited domestic demand, structural overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and unstable expectations [1][4][8]. Group 1: Policy Recommendations - Recommendation 1: Advance the government investment and financing quotas for the next year to utilize fiscal resources effectively, with an expected increase in local special bond quotas to over 4.5 trillion yuan, suggesting an early allocation of 1.5-2 trillion yuan [9][10]. - Recommendation 2: Continue to release positive signals through monetary policy, potentially lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, while considering the resumption of government bond purchases [11][12]. - Recommendation 3: Lower the operational thresholds for two monetary policy tools supporting the capital market and standardize the operations of the Central Huijin Investment Company [12][13]. - Recommendation 4: Further reduce mortgage rates and optimize personal housing tax policies, including a suggested 25 basis point reduction in long-term housing provident fund loan rates [14][15]. - Recommendation 5: Increase the consumption subsidy for replacing old goods by 100 billion yuan and expand the subsidy scope to include various consumer goods [16][17]. - Recommendation 6: Strengthen fiscal and financial support, optimize tax refund services, enhance trade facilitation, and provide assistance to foreign trade enterprises and unemployed individuals [18][19][20]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Domestic demand remains limited, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, and infrastructure investment declining by 2.0% [4][5]. - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with a year-on-year drop in national commercial housing sales area of 11% in August, and real estate investment down by 12.9% from January to August [5][6]. - Credit growth is notably weak, with a decrease in credit balance for the first time since 2005, and new credit issuance in August at 590 billion yuan, below last year's already low levels [6][7]. - Deflationary pressures persist, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to -0.4% year-on-year in August, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) at -2.9% [7].

中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会日前召开。会议认为，今年以来宏观调控力度加 大，货币政策适度宽松，持续发力、适时加力，强化逆周期调节，综合运用多种货币政策工具，服务实 体经济高质量发展，为经济回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环境。贷款市场报价利率改革效能持续释放， 存款利率市场化调整机制作用有效发挥，货币政策传导效率增强，社会融资成本处于历史较低水平。金 融市场总体运行平稳。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根 据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，抓好各项货币政策措施执 行，充分释放政策效应。保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社会融资规模、货 币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成 传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。推动社会综合融资成本下降。 从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。（记者 徐佩玉） 会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，认为我国经济运行稳中有进，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展取 得新成效， ...

会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国 内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，抓好各项货币政策措施执行， 充分释放政策效应。保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社会融资规模、货币供 应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导 机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。推动社会综合融资成本下降。从宏 观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。 会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，认为我国经济运行稳中有进，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展取得新 成效，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价低位运行等困难和挑战。要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆 周期调节，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定 增长和物价处于合理水平。 本报北京9月30日电(记者徐佩玉)中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会日前召开。会议认 为，今年以来宏观调控力度加大，货币政策适度宽松，持续发力、适时加力，强化逆周期调节，综合运 用多种货币 ...

连平/文 当前，国际局势仍然纷繁复杂、扑朔迷离，可以概括为"四个确定"和"三个不确定"。"四个确定"分别 是：世界经济复苏压力显著增大、关税驱动美国通胀反弹、美国经济正处于强弱换档期、美联储开启本 轮第二阶段降息。"三个不确定性"分别是：中美对等关税谈判悬念犹存、地缘政治风险多点共振前景难 料、美联储年内降息频率和幅度仍存变数。四季度外部环境确定性因素和不确定性因素复杂交织，有可 能搅动全球资本流动、市场汇率和外贸格局，从不同维度给中国经济带来结构性压力和挑战。 目前，国内需求积弱、产能结构性过剩、通货紧缩压力、预期不稳等问题依然不容忽视。三季度以来， 部分经济金融指标表现不佳：一是基建投资增速下滑，对投资增速形成阶段性拖累。1—8月固定资产投 资累计同比降至0.5%，其中基建投资（不含电力）累计同比下降至2.0%，已连续四个月环比逐月下 降，短期来看受到基建投资资金错位、部分区域高温暴雨等因素影响。从中长期来看，当前"十四五"规 划进入收官阶段，大量存量项目已进入建设后期，而"十五五"规划的新项目尚未大规模启动，出现了一 定程度上的项目衔接的空窗期，"缺优质项目"成为基建投资增长的核心矛盾。 二是房地产市场 ...

行情异动概述 2025年9月30日国债期货市场出现显著盘中异动，午盘各期限合约集体反弹上涨，与开盘时的普遍下跌 形成鲜明对比。具体来看，当日开盘时市场情绪偏谨慎，30年期主力合约低开0.17%，10年期、5年期 和2年期主力合约均微跌0.01%；而到午盘时段，各合约全面翻红，且涨幅呈现明显分化特征12。 各期限合约午盘表现差异显著： 值得注意的是，30年期国债期货主力合约当日波动较大，盘中曾出现0.30%的下跌，最终午盘收涨 0.07%，显示长端品种多空博弈激烈3。与此同时，2年期国债期货主力合约价格稳定在102.368元，涨跌 值0.036，体现了短端市场的相对平稳4。这种差异化行情为后续分析市场资金流向与情绪变化提供了重 要观察窗口。 9月召开的央行三季度货币政策委员会例会（总第110次）释放出强烈的逆周期调节信号。相较于二季 度"保持经济稳定增长"的表述，本次例会明确提出"** 促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"，并强 调" 加强货币政策调控 "" 保持流动性充裕 **"，要求"根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况， **灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏 **"910。 政策面驱动因素 今日国债期货行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a proactive monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels, reflecting a more nuanced understanding of the current economic challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Direction - The PBOC's recent meeting indicates a shift from "maintaining" to "promoting" economic stability, highlighting a more active approach to monetary policy [1][2]. - The meeting introduced a new requirement to "ensure the effective implementation of various monetary policy measures," indicating a focus on the execution of existing tools [2][3]. Group 2: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The meeting reiterated the importance of structural monetary policy tools, particularly in supporting small and micro enterprises and stabilizing foreign trade [4]. - The emphasis on financing support for key areas such as technology innovation, consumption, and small businesses is crucial, especially in light of potential impacts from U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The expectation for the fourth quarter is to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy stance, with decisions on rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio adjustments to be based on comprehensive assessments of economic performance and external conditions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's commitment to global development and financial reforms, emphasizing the importance of creating a stable international environment and enhancing cooperation in various sectors, including finance and investment [5][6]. Group 1: Major Policies - The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) jointly issued an announcement to further support foreign institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase transactions [9]. - The PBOC's monetary policy committee emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain ample liquidity in the market [10]. - In August, China's foreign exchange market recorded a total transaction volume of 24.08 trillion yuan (approximately 3.38 trillion USD) [12]. - In August, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China surged by 20.4% year-on-year, marking a significant rebound compared to a decline of 1.5% in the previous month [12][14]. Group 2: Financial System Reform - The PBOC's Governor highlighted the deepening of financial system reforms, which have positively impacted market confidence and stability, optimized resource allocation, and enhanced international competitiveness [7]. - The PBOC's recent meeting indicated a shift in monetary policy focus from "implementation" to "enforcement," reflecting a stronger commitment to economic stability and reasonable price levels [11]. Group 3: Investment and Economic Development - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is working to enhance the synergy between industrial, investment, fiscal, and financial policies to stimulate private investment and promote economic growth [8]. - The article notes that private investment is a crucial indicator of economic activity and has been supported by the government through improved business environments and opportunities for private enterprises [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the construction industry, indicating an expected return that exceeds the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments and a moderately loose monetary policy to address challenges such as insufficient demand and low price levels, aiming to stabilize economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels [1][15]. - The Xinjiang region is projected to see a fixed asset investment growth target of around 10% for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% from January to August 2025, surpassing the national investment growth rate by 8.6 percentage points [2][16]. - The report highlights the strategic importance of Xinjiang in developing coal, electricity, and coal chemical industries, with planned coal chemical projects exceeding 900 billion yuan, which is expected to drive regional investment growth [2][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the central bank's focus on counter-cyclical adjustments and the ongoing investment climate in Xinjiang, which is expected to remain positive due to supportive regional policies and a focus on high-quality development [1][15]. Market Performance - The construction industry experienced a decline of 1.51% from September 22 to September 26, underperforming compared to major indices like the Shenzhen Composite Index and the CSI 300 [17]. - The engineering consulting services sector showed a positive performance with a 2.38% increase during the same period [17]. Key Investment Targets - The report suggests focusing on leading construction companies such as China Railway, China State Construction, and China Communications Construction, which are expected to benefit from improved fundamentals and government support [10][11]. - It also highlights the potential of companies involved in pre-stressed materials manufacturing and those engaged in AI applications and semiconductor industries, indicating a broad range of investment opportunities [10][11]. Company Announcements - Significant project wins were reported, including China Railway securing contracts worth approximately 502.15 billion yuan, indicating robust demand for construction services [31]. Industry Valuation - As of September 26, the construction and decoration industry had a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.55 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.82, reflecting a competitive valuation compared to other sectors [24]. - The report identifies several companies with low valuations, such as China Railway and China State Construction, which may present attractive investment opportunities [24][27].