Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. However, high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center of the steel market is expected to shift from policy to fundamentals, and steel prices may show a short - term weakening trend [4][5]. - For coking coal and coke, although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply will be affected by policies in the medium term, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise [10]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the factors driving price increases weaken and the terminal steel demand is under pressure [15]. - For ferroalloys, both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon need to be wary of the adjustment risks caused by the rapid increase in supply [20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25 - September 3, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 - September 3, blast furnaces may be restricted by 40%. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin have declined. The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated last Friday night. Steel production resumed overall last week, with a slight reduction in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the demand for building materials declined. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, but high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center is expected to shift to fundamentals, and steel prices may weaken [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests a weakening trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to enter positive spreads at low basis levels and hold; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Recently, the prices of some coal mines have corrected, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. In the medium term, coal supply will be affected by policies, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise. The impact of over - production inspections on coal mine production is emerging [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests waiting for a correction and then going long on far - month contracts [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan on August 18. From August 11 - 17, the global iron - ore shipment volume increased. The spot prices of some iron - ore varieties in Qingdao Port have changed [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated at night. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving price increases have weakened. The short - term ore price will fluctuate [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral, arbitrage, option, and spot - futures trading all suggest waiting and seeing [13]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: The manganese - ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased. The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the demand is at a high level but the rebar apparent demand is declining. For manganese - silicon, the supply is also increasing, the demand is high in the short term, and the cost is supported. Both need to be wary of supply - related adjustment risks [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests using it as a short - position variety in the industrial chain; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct positive spreads when the basis is low; for options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21].

Core Insights - The hot-rolled coil prices entered a phase of fluctuation and adjustment starting in August, with an average price drop of 46.14 yuan/ton as of August 14 compared to July 30 [1] Price Information - As of August 18, the hot-rolled coil futures main contract closed at 3419.00 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.20%. The highest price reached 3455.00 yuan/ton, while the lowest was 3404.00 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 503,900 contracts [2] Market Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils this week was 1.9654 million tons, an increase of 58,600 tons (+3.07%) compared to the previous week, covering 15 cities and 47 warehouses. In early August, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.03 million tons, up 180,000 tons (+2.3%) from the previous month, and up 1.44 million tons (+21.9%) from the beginning of the year, but down 2.18 million tons (-21.4%) year-on-year [3] Regulatory Impact - On August 15, the U.S. government announced an expansion of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, increasing tariffs to 50% on hundreds of derivative products. This expansion is expected to have a negative impact on China's indirect steel exports, leading to a forecast of weak fluctuations in the hot-rolled coil market in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to include hundreds of derivative products, with a 50% tariff set to take effect on August 18, 2023 [1]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the addition of 407 product codes to the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule, which will incur additional tariffs due to their steel and aluminum content [1]. - The expanded tariff list primarily includes intermediate and semi-finished products containing steel and aluminum, as well as metal structures, containers, and fasteners made from these materials [1]. Group 2: Impact on Exports - In 2024, China's steel export volume is projected to be 111 million tons, with only 470,000 tons directly exported to the U.S., accounting for 0.4% of total exports [2]. - The direct impact of the tariff policy on China's steel exports is expected to be minimal, but indirect exports may be affected due to a high proportion of steel being routed through third countries [2]. - China's steel exports to Vietnam, a significant intermediary for U.S. exports, are projected to be 12.76 million tons in 2024, with Vietnam exporting nearly 2 million tons to the U.S. [2]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The tariff policy may lead to a decline in China's steel exports, negatively impacting related products such as steel billets and plates [3]. - The policy could also significantly affect the export of steel-intensive products like construction machinery, home appliances, and new energy vehicles, which have a high demand for steel, particularly plates [3]. - An estimated 14.5 million tons of steel may be indirectly exported to the U.S. through steel derivatives in 2024 [3]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The futures market is expected to react negatively to the tariff policy, with a potential decline in steel prices due to increased inventory levels and weakening demand [4]. - The price spread between different steel products has widened, indicating market volatility, and the tariff policy is likely to have a more direct impact on plate exports [4]. - Despite the tariff policy, the domestic futures market is primarily influenced by macroeconomic and industrial policies, which may help mitigate the impact of the tariffs [4][5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the hot-rolled coil plate sector remains strong, with wide fluctuations [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,138 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.16%); trading volume was 1,164,609 lots, and open interest was 2,122,341 lots, down 78,184 lots. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,276 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.09%); trading volume was 454,659 lots, and open interest was 1,580,291 lots, down 19,457 lots [2] - **Spot Price Data**: In the spot market, prices of some regions for both rebar and hot-rolled coil plate remained stable, while some had minor changes. For example, Shanghai's rebar price dropped 10 yuan/ton, and Tianjin's hot-rolled coil plate price dropped 10 yuan/ton, while Guangzhou's hot-rolled coil plate price rose 10 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2510 decreased from 87 yuan/ton to 72 yuan/ton, and that of HC2510 decreased from 27 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton. Various spreads also had different degrees of changes [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Financial Data**: In late June 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than last month and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [3] - **Steel Export Data**: In June 2025, China exported 967.8 million tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 90.0 million tons (8.5%); the average price was 687.1 dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 10.8 dollars/ton (1.5%). From January to June, the cumulative steel export was 5814.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 490.8 million tons (9.2%) [3][4] - **Weekly Steel Data**: According to the weekly data on July 10, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 4.42 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 5.00 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 12.44 million tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 4.84 million tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 0.63 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 0.35 million tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 3.37 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 1.86 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 12.19 million tons [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot-rolled coil plate is also 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China's steel exports in June amounted to 9.678 million tons, a decrease from 10.578 million tons in May [1] Group 2 - The data indicates a decline in steel exports, which may reflect changes in domestic demand or international market conditions [1] - The significant drop of 900,000 tons from May to June represents an 8.5% decrease in steel exports [1]

Group 1 - Report's industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Still treat steel as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [3] Group 3 - From January to May 2025, China exported 471.7 million tons of steel billets, 165.4 million tons of steel bars, and 459.3 million tons of wire rods, with year - on - year increases of 355 million tons, 78 million tons, and 131.6 million tons respectively, a total increase of 565 million tons [2] - On June 23, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged from last Friday. The average profit was - 133 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last Friday [2] - The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in June will reach 2 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% and a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. Among them, new energy retail sales are expected to reach 1.1 million, and the penetration rate will rebound to about 55% [2] - The prices of finished steel products rose and then fell yesterday, with small cross - star candlesticks for rebar and hot - rolled coils, showing little fluctuation. Market drivers are weak, and weak demand still exerts pressure on prices [2] - Later, pay attention to macro policies and downstream demand [3]

Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The joint statement from the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks resulted in a reduction of tariffs on Chinese steel and steel products exported to the US, down to 65% and 63% respectively [1] - The slight easing of steel tariffs during the 90-day exemption period is expected to support the resilience of indirect steel exports from China [1] Group 2: Export and Import Data - In April, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, while imports were 522,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7% [1] - From January to April, China's total steel exports reached 37.891 million tons, up 8.2% year-on-year, while imports totaled 2.072 million tons, down 13.9% [1] Group 3: Global Steel Market Conditions - As of May 8, the export prices for hot-rolled coils from India, Turkey, and the CIS regions were $595/ton, $550/ton, and $460/ton respectively, while China's price was $462/ton [2] - In March, global crude steel production reached 166.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with non-China regions producing 73.3 million tons, up 0.5% [2] Group 4: Manufacturing and Export Orders - The global manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49.1%, indicating a decline, while China's manufacturing PMI for new export orders was at 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The steel export order index for Chinese steel companies continued to contract, with a new export order index of 41.0 in April, down 0.1 percentage points [3] Group 5: Trade Tensions and Protectionism - Recent trade tensions include Brazil's anti-dumping ruling on galvanized and aluminum-zinc plates from China, India's temporary 12% tariff on certain steel imports, and Canada's anti-dumping investigation into carbon and alloy steel wire from multiple countries including China [4] - Despite a slight easing in the foreign trade environment, the trend of trade protectionism is expected to suppress future steel exports from China [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel products in the black building materials sector is "Oscillating and Slightly Weak" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the short - term macro - stimulus, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have returned to the previous oscillation range. The market is currently dominated by industry logic and expectations, and the market expectations are not optimistic. The supply of steel has increased recently, the export of steel in April continued to grow at a high rate, and the demand for construction steel and plate has shown a differentiation [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Report's Content Market Conditions - On Friday, the main contract of rebar 2510 closed at 3082, down 1.15%. The main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3226, down 0.95%. The main contract of stainless steel closed at 12925, down 0.54%. All closed down at night [1] Important Information - China's steel demand will remain in the peak platform range for a long time. It is predicted that the crude steel output will be 800 - 900 million tons in 2035 and about 800 million tons after 2050 [1] - In April 2025, China exported 1.59 million tons of steel bars, a year - on - year increase of 47.1%; from January to April, the cumulative export was 5.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.1% [1] - From January to April, the national water conservancy construction investment reached 294.36 billion yuan, and the water conservancy investment scale remained at a high level [1] - Russia's government has introduced a new shipbuilding industry development strategy, planning to build more than 1634 ships by 2036 and another 2637 ships by 2050 [1] - As of this week, the capacity utilization rate of independent electric furnace enterprises in the country was 56.57%, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 percentage points, basically the same as the same period last year [1] - From January to April 2025, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 15.32 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%; the new order volume was 30.69 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. As of the end of April, the order - on - hand volume was 229.78 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.6% [1] Market Logic - On Friday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated, and the trading volume was average. The impact of macro - factors on the market has weakened, and the market has returned to industry logic and expectations. The fundamentals show that last week, the output and apparent demand of rebar increased, and the inventory decreased. The output and inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased, and the apparent demand increased. Recently, the output of electric furnaces has increased significantly, and the supply of steel has increased. The export of steel in April continued to grow at a high rate, and after the relaxation of Sino - US tariffs, the export is expected to perform well. The ship orders have continued to grow at a high rate, and the demand for medium and heavy plates is good. There is a differentiation in the demand for construction steel and plate [1] Trading Strategy - Wait for the direction to become clearer or conduct short - term operations [1]

Group 1: Steel Price Trends - Since April, steel prices have been operating at low levels, with a focus on fundamental logic as the "tariff war" with the U.S. eases, but prices remain under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand [1] - The steel price outlook is expected to be neutral to slightly bearish in the short to medium term, primarily due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance [7] Group 2: Real Estate Market Impact - The real estate market shows signs of improvement, but its support for construction steel prices is limited, with national real estate development investment in the first quarter at approximately 1.99 trillion yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year [2] - New housing starts and completions have seen significant declines, with new starts down 24.4% and completions down 14.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on steel prices from the construction sector [3] Group 3: Export Dynamics - In March, China exported 10.46 million tons of steel, with cumulative exports from January to March at 27.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while imports decreased by 11.3% [4] - The price advantage of Chinese steel and declining overseas crude steel production are contributing to continued export growth, although future exports may face pressure from rising international trade protectionism [4] Group 4: Production and Profitability - In March, China's crude steel production reached 92.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a high operating rate of 84.33% among steel mills, indicating strong production activity despite low prices [5] - Steel mills are experiencing improved profitability, which reduces the likelihood of voluntary production cuts, although some mills in Xinjiang have announced production reductions [5][6] Group 5: Product-Specific Trends - In March, rebar production was 18.61 million tons, up 5.6% year-on-year, while the production of medium and heavy wide steel plates increased by 8.5% [7] - The production adjustments between rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to become more flexible in the coming months, influenced by export conditions [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the black metal market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with current prices showing slight increases in various regions, but overall demand remains weak and the medium to long-term trend is downward [1] - Steel production is decreasing overall, with a slowdown in inventory reduction and an accumulation of inventory in construction materials, while the demand for steel has significantly declined [1] - There are rumors that domestic export inspections may increase in May, which, combined with overseas tariff impacts, could lead to a decline in steel exports [1] Group 2 - The recent monetary policy adjustments include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in the policy interest rate, which is expected to influence steel prices [1] - As of May 6, the funding availability rate for construction sites is reported at 58.95%, with a slight week-on-week increase, indicating a mixed outlook for construction projects [1] - The funding availability rate for non-residential projects is higher at 60.47%, while residential projects lag behind at 51.38%, reflecting varying levels of financial support across different construction sectors [1]