Core Viewpoint - The overall economic operation in October remains stable, with solid progress in transformation and upgrading, while new growth drivers continue to strengthen. However, challenges persist due to external uncertainties and domestic structural adjustment pressures [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - Despite external adverse impacts and a weak domestic market, the economy has maintained a steady and progressive development trend this year [1] - Significant improvement in social expectations is a notable characteristic of this year's economic performance, reflecting the effectiveness of expectation management [1] Group 2: Policy Measures - There has been a marked increase in the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, with enhanced expectation management mechanisms [2] - The introduction of various economic and financial policies by multiple departments has strengthened policy synergy, aiming to avoid "synthetic fallacy" and "decomposition fallacy" [2] - The focus on consumer stimulation policies has been evident, with coordinated efforts from central and local governments, leading to enhanced consumption momentum [2] Group 3: Expectation Management - Strengthening policy coordination is crucial for maintaining the "strength" of expectation management, especially during economic cycle adjustments and structural transformations [3] - The need for targeted guidance in expectation management is emphasized, considering the increasing openness of the Chinese economy and the importance of engaging with foreign institutions [3] - Improving the accessibility of expectation management is vital, requiring effective communication between the government and various stakeholders [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of active fiscal policy as a foundation for national governance and economic development, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][4] - The Ministry of Finance has recognized the effectiveness of active fiscal policies in recent years, highlighting a 24% increase in general public budget expenditure, which is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] - Over 70% of national fiscal expenditure is directed towards people's livelihoods, with nearly 10 trillion yuan allocated for social welfare over the past five years [2][4] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to address structural and deep-seated economic issues, thereby boosting long-term development potential [3][4] - The focus will be on both supply-side and demand-side management, utilizing tax policies and government procurement to support the modern industrial system and stimulate consumption [3][6] - The Ministry aims to innovate fiscal tools, such as long-term special government bonds and fiscal subsidies, to improve the effectiveness of fiscal policies [3][4] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will prioritize expanding domestic demand, with strategies to boost consumption and effective investment, while also promoting a unified national market [6][7] - The Ministry of Finance will work on optimizing resource allocation and enhancing fiscal management, including zero-based budgeting reforms to improve fund utilization [9] - There will be a focus on balancing efficiency and equity in tax policies, as well as strengthening the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [9]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in international oil prices is attributed to a combination of a strong US dollar, expectations of oversupply, and weak manufacturing data, leading to market pressures on oil prices [1][2][3] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - As of November 4, international oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $60.56 per barrel, down 0.80%, and Brent crude at $64.44 per barrel, down 0.69% [1] - The increase in US API crude oil inventories by 6.521 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 4 million barrels previously, raised concerns about oversupply in the market [1][4] - The OPEC alliance's decision to pause production quota increases in the first quarter reflects a recognition of potential oversupply, marking a shift from previous optimistic demand forecasts [2][3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Expectations - Weak manufacturing PMI data from Asia and the US has raised concerns about oil demand, with the IEA lowering its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast by 350,000 barrels per day [4][5] - The current market is characterized by a reinforced expectation of oversupply, driven by increased US crude inventories and OPEC's production strategies [4][6] - The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding sanctions on Russian oil exports has led to skepticism about the effectiveness of these sanctions, as disrupted Russian oil is expected to find its way back into the market [2][3] Group 3: Structural Changes in Oil Market - The current decline in oil prices is seen as a systemic reorganization of multiple soft power factors, indicating a profound adjustment in the dynamic balance between implicit rules and explicit material conditions [3][7] - The dominance of the US dollar as the global oil pricing currency has intensified, impacting global liquidity and suppressing oil demand expectations [3][7] - The OPEC's shift from production control to expectation management reflects a broader transformation in market rules, influencing actual supply-demand dynamics [3][7] Group 4: Challenges in Oil Market Management - The US shale oil industry is facing challenges transitioning from a "technology dividend" to a "capital-driven" model, weakening its soft power value creation capabilities [5][6] - OPEC is struggling with internal execution differences among member countries, as evidenced by compensation plans submitted by five countries to address excess production [5][6] - The lack of innovation in value creation within the oil market is evident, as traditional reliance on resource control and production adjustments fails to address the need for new pathways for industry upgrade [6][7]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2] - External disturbances have led to a decline in manufacturing PMI, with new export orders and production indices showing significant drops, particularly in textiles, chemicals, and non-metallic mineral products [2][3] - The service sector remains stable, supported by holiday effects and promotional activities, while the construction sector shows signs of recovery due to government support for infrastructure projects [3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has fallen below historical levels for this time of year, with external factors negatively impacting the external demand index [2] - New export orders and production indices have notably decreased, with specific industries like textiles and rubber products falling below critical thresholds [2][3] - The decline in the price index reflects external fluctuations, although some price support is noted from "anti-involution" measures [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's performance is buoyed by holiday spending and promotional events, with high activity in travel-related industries [3] - The construction sector's business activity index has slightly decreased, but government initiatives are expected to enhance support for infrastructure projects [3] - New orders and expectations in the construction sector are showing signs of recovery, indicating potential for improved economic conditions [3] Policy and Economic Outlook - Continuous macroeconomic policy support is essential, with a focus on managing expectations to stimulate domestic demand [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption, aiming to create a positive cycle of expectation improvement leading to economic recovery [3]

◎记者 陈佳怡 一边如期降息并宣布结束缩表，一边发表鹰派言论打压降息预期……"鹰""鸽"转换间，美联储主席鲍威 尔把预期管理的手段展现得淋漓尽致。 不过，美联储议息会议过程中出现罕见的双向分歧：美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰继续支持降息50个基点， 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则主张维持利率不变。 在美联储内部分歧加剧之外，经济数据缺失、就业通胀前景不明及未来人事变局等因素，令美联储后续 降息路径笼罩在一片"迷雾"之中。 数据"迷雾"下美联储分歧加大 北京时间10月30日凌晨，美联储公布最新利率决议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到 3.75%至4.00%之间。 市场对此次降息早有预期，议息会上罕见的双向分歧一幕更抓人眼球：美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰连续第 二次在会议上主张更激进的降息幅度，即支持降息50个基点；堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则反对降息举 措，主张维持利率不变。 美联储内部分歧愈演愈烈的背后，是美联储官员对经济前景的判断出现显著分化。对此，联邦政府"停 摆"导致的"数据真空"难辞其咎。 美联储在最新政策声明中承认，在政府停摆期间缺乏官方经济统计数据，使其更难了解经济状况。 受美国政府"停摆"影响，美国9月非农 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing increasing signs of oversupply, leading to a decline in oil prices despite previous strong upward momentum caused by U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply for an extended period due to continuous supply growth and limited demand increase, resulting in significant downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. - U.S. oil production has been sluggish this year, primarily due to capital constraints limiting drilling activities, while low oil prices have restricted upstream investments in shale oil [2][4]. - Multiple institutions have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth this year, with expected increases being lower than last year [2][4]. Market Reactions and Speculation - Speculative positions have been significantly reduced as investors reposition themselves in anticipation of an impending supply surplus, reinforcing downward price pressure [1][3]. - The recent record high in global seaborne crude oil indicates a persistent rise in oversupply [1]. OPEC's Role and Market Signals - OPEC's upcoming meeting may agree to increase production, which could further signal a controlled supply approach rather than relying solely on resource reserves [2][3]. - The ability of OPEC and other oil-producing countries to adjust production policies reflects their soft power in the market, emphasizing the importance of managing expectations and supply signals [3][4]. Long-term Trends and Soft Power Theory - The dynamics of the oil market have shifted from traditional resource control to a focus on rule reconstruction, expectation management, and value innovation, as outlined in Deng Zhenghong's soft power theory [3][4]. - The competition in the oil market is expected to deepen, focusing on technological standards, financial rule reconstruction, and adaptive capabilities [4].

Core Insights - Oil prices surged by over 7% in a single week, reaching a six-month high, driven by the dual impact of Western sanctions on Russia and easing US-China trade tensions [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in oil prices reflects a shift from resource control to expectation-driven market dynamics, indicating a new phase in global energy soft power competition [1][3] - The European Union and the United States announced new sanctions targeting major Russian oil companies, which control over 70% of Russia's oil production capacity and 55% of its oil exports, potentially affecting around 2 million barrels per day [2][4] - The market's reaction to sanctions shows that changes in rules can trigger price fluctuations more significantly than actual supply and demand changes [1][4] Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Implications - In the short term, Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate within the $60 to $70 per barrel range as the market assesses the real impact of sanctions [5] - Long-term factors include a persistent oversupply in the global market, with the IEA predicting a surplus of 4 million barrels per day by 2026, and the adaptability of Russia's oil export strategies [5] - The sanctions are likely to alter trade flows and increase transaction costs rather than significantly reduce the total volume of Russian oil exports [4][5] Group 3: Soft Power Theory Application - The concept of soft power is crucial for understanding current oil price fluctuations, emphasizing the balance between implicit rules and tangible resources [3][5] - The competition for energy soft power has transitioned from traditional resource control to the reconstruction of rules, with oil-producing countries signaling "controllable supply" through policy adjustments [3][5] - The effectiveness of sanctions is limited, as historical precedents show that the actual supply losses from sanctions are often lower than initially anticipated [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing market expectations to support economic recovery and growth, highlighting the need for effective macroeconomic policy management and timely responses to market concerns [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Challenges - Despite facing complex domestic and international challenges, China's economy has shown resilience and maintained stable growth, with key economic indicators performing well [3]. - However, there are still significant issues such as insufficient demand and the challenges of transitioning from old to new growth drivers, indicating that the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid [3][4]. Group 2: Importance of Expectation Management - Expectation management is crucial for macroeconomic governance and is a key tool for effective economic work, requiring attention to both supply-demand balance and market expectations [3][4]. - Weak market expectations, influenced by factors like trade wars and social security concerns, have negatively impacted production and investment willingness among economic entities [4][5]. Group 3: Policy Implementation and Communication - Timely and precise implementation of macroeconomic policies is essential to enhance predictability and guide market expectations positively [5]. - There is a need to address the "temperature difference" between macro data and micro experiences, ensuring that policies are effectively communicated and understood by businesses and the public [5][9]. Group 4: Long-term Planning and Institutional Framework - Strengthening medium to long-term expectation management is vital, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" serving as a strategic guide for economic and social development [6][7]. - A stable and predictable institutional environment is fundamental for enhancing development confidence, necessitating reforms to eliminate systemic barriers and improve market competition [8]. Group 5: Enhancing Public Communication - Improving economic communication and public discourse is necessary to stabilize expectations and foster a positive outlook on economic development [9]. - The media plays a critical role in conveying accurate information and guiding public perception, which is essential for maintaining confidence in the economy [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a combination of macroeconomic and structural policies to stabilize China's economy and promote high-quality development in the face of insufficient effective demand and structural changes in key industries [3][6][12]. Economic Growth and Structural Characteristics - China's economic cycles are characterized by structural features, where macroeconomic fluctuations are primarily driven by a few key industries, reflecting the evolution of the industrial structure [4]. - The real estate sector has historically played a significant role in driving economic growth, but its contribution may have peaked, necessitating a focus on emerging industries for future growth [5][6]. Policy Recommendations - A dual approach is recommended: macro policies should focus on overall economic stability, while industry-specific policies should address structural challenges [6][10]. - Structural monetary policy should be employed to alleviate credit constraints in key sectors like real estate, while also guiding credit towards emerging sectors such as advanced manufacturing and digital economy [8][9]. - Fiscal policy should aim to stabilize traditional industries while supporting the development of new industries, with a focus on optimizing existing assets and enhancing public services [9][10]. Risk Management and Monitoring - It is crucial to identify key traditional industries and establish a monitoring mechanism to manage risks effectively, ensuring that macro policies are complemented by targeted industry policies [7][10]. - Macro-prudential policies should be adapted to address unique risks in both traditional and emerging industries, ensuring financial stability during economic fluctuations [10]. Expectations Management - Different industries respond differently to macro policies, necessitating tailored communication strategies to manage expectations effectively [11]. - For industries facing risks, timely communication about risk mitigation efforts is essential to prevent negative sentiment, while clear long-term goals should be articulated for emerging sectors to foster confidence [11]. Long-term Perspective - The article concludes that while the current policy framework is necessary for short-term stability, long-term economic vitality will depend on deeper reforms to address structural and systemic barriers [12].

Core Insights - OPEC has agreed to a modest increase in oil production, adding 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, alleviating market concerns about a significant supply increase [1][4] - Oil prices rose on October 6, with WTI closing at $61.69 per barrel (up 1.33%) and Brent at $65.47 per barrel (up 1.46%) [1] - The recent drone attack on Russia's Kirishi refinery has disrupted operations, contributing to upward pressure on oil prices [1][4] Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude futures are expected to stabilize around $60 per barrel due to ongoing attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and OPEC's slight production increase [2] - Saudi Arabia has maintained its pricing for key crude grades sold to Asia, while Russian oil exports are nearing their lowest levels since 2020, with a daily impact of 1 million barrels [2][4] - UBS forecasts Brent crude to trade between $60 and $70 per barrel, indicating a peak in oil demand this year [2][5] Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has led to significant disruptions in Russian oil production, with 38% of refining capacity affected [4] - The EU's proposed sanctions on third-party oil entities and U.S. pressure on NATO allies to cease purchasing Russian energy are creating additional risks for Russian oil flows [2][4] - The strategic use of drone attacks by Ukraine represents a low-cost method to inflict substantial market losses on Russia, with a leverage ratio of 1:3000 [3][4] Future Trends - The oil market is transitioning from a focus on quantity to price, with geopolitical premiums becoming more dominant [5] - OPEC's internal dynamics reveal differing objectives between Saudi Arabia and Russia regarding production increases, highlighting the complexities of soft power in energy markets [5] - The EU's secondary sanctions aim to transform temporary penalties into long-term trade rules, indicating a shift in regulatory frameworks [5]