中经记者 何莎莎 北京报道 "反内卷"政策仍然在持续升温。 近期结束的中央政治局会议部署了一系列重要改革举措，包括"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市 场竞争秩序持续优化""依法依规治理企业无序竞争"等，凸显了国家已对这一现象予以充分重视。 在7月15日国新办发布会上，国家统计局回应了"反内卷"话题，表示"有关部门正在制定相关措施，进一 步加大市场秩序的规范治理"。7月1日中央财经委员会召开会议明确提出，要纵深推进全国统一大市场 建设，聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退 出。 从中央层面到部委层面政策加码的同时，多个行业也纷纷跟进"反内卷"。产业端，汽车、光伏、钢铁、 水泥等行业集中出台措施；金融行业，多地银行业、保险业协会发布"反内卷"自律公约。 与此同时，A股也掀起了"反内卷"主题行情。不少机构认为，这一主题有望成为接下来一段时间的主 线。"反内卷"行情背后的政策背景是什么？这一行情未来将如何发展？围绕一系列问题，《中国经营 报》触角"零观财经"与北京大学政府管理学院教授马亮、远东资信首席宏观研究员张林进行了访谈。 内卷现象冲击多个行业 内卷现象的愈演愈烈 ...

Core Viewpoint - After a month of continuous recovery, the price of silicon materials has stabilized, with current prices ranging from 45,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, following a previous increase from approximately 30,000 to 36,000 yuan per ton [1] Price Trends - The price of polysilicon futures surged to 54,705 yuan per ton on July 30 but has since dropped to around 50,000 yuan per ton, slightly above the spot price [1] - The increase in polysilicon prices is linked to regulatory efforts aimed at curbing low-price competition and guiding companies towards rational pricing [1][2] Industry Dynamics - Currently, most silicon material companies are achieving breakeven at the current price levels, contrasting with previous losses [3] - The price recovery in the photovoltaic industry depends on supply-side structural reforms in polysilicon and the price transmission effect to downstream components [3] Downstream Impact - The downstream component sector has struggled to raise prices in line with silicon material increases, with current component prices around 0.665 to 0.707 yuan per watt, reflecting only a minor increase since July [2][3] - Each watt of component requires approximately 2 grams of silicon material, meaning a 10,000 yuan per ton increase in silicon price raises component costs by about 0.1 yuan per watt [3] Regulatory Environment - The decline in investment returns for photovoltaic power stations is a significant factor limiting component price increases, as outlined in the "136 Document" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission [4][5] - New regulations set a mechanism price of 0.4155 yuan per kilowatt-hour for projects connected to the grid before June 1, 2025, impacting the financial viability of new installations [6] Production Capacity and Storage Plans - Despite price stabilization, polysilicon production capacity is increasing, particularly in regions with low energy costs [7][8] - A proposed storage plan aims to establish a storage capacity of 1.2 to 1.3 million tons, with a target to maintain around 70% operational capacity to meet market demand [8]

Group 1: Policy and Market Response - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and promote product quality improvement [1] - In response to the "anti-involution" policy, industries such as photovoltaic, cement, steel, and coke have begun to reduce production and increase prices [1][4] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have proposed amendments to the Price Law to standardize market pricing and address "involution-style" competition [1][4] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Major commodity futures, including coking coal, coke, polysilicon, industrial silicon, glass, and soda ash, have seen significant price increases, with polysilicon rising by 50% in July and reaching a record high of 53,000 yuan/ton [1][4] - The market is experiencing a shift from "anti-involution driven" to "stock replenishment driven," with expectations of further price increases as downstream demand rises [4][5] - Analysts predict that most commodity futures will experience a comprehensive rebound in the third quarter, driven by policy support and improved market conditions [5] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The chemical industry is facing a cycle of low-price competition, which undermines profitability and restricts R&D investment, leading to a lack of product value enhancement [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce plans to stabilize growth in key industries, focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity [2][3] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to enhance market order and promote industry upgrades, directing resources towards high-efficiency sectors and improving global competitiveness [6]

Group 1: Economic Transformation - China's economic development is heavily reliant on population dividends, with a significant amount of previously underutilized labor being mobilized post-reform, leading to substantial productivity gains[2] - The traditional mindset of prioritizing investment over consumption has resulted in production surplus and insufficient consumption, necessitating a shift towards demand-side reforms to stimulate domestic consumption[2][22] Group 2: Labor Value and Distribution - Labor value is crucial for ensuring fair distribution and promoting consumption, with initial distribution being the most fundamental aspect influenced by market forces[3][28] - The current labor market dynamics indicate a need to stabilize and enhance labor value, which is determined by the balance of power between labor and capital, influenced by supply and demand in the labor market[3][10] Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Labor demand is influenced by total demand, which includes both domestic and foreign components, with domestic demand being significantly affected by income distribution[4][34] - The reduction in labor supply is a prevailing trend, with a shrinking labor population and extended working hours contributing to a challenging employment landscape[6][43] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Recent policies, such as the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," aim to address the root causes of low consumption, emphasizing income growth and service sector development to enhance employment and consumption[9][65] - There is a pressing need for labor protection laws to mitigate excessive working hours, which exacerbate employment pressures and hinder job creation[8][64]

Group 1: Overview of Anti-Overcompetition - The report emphasizes that the current "anti-overcompetition" framework is still being refined and may require further input from industry associations and relevant departments, indicating a dynamic and evolving policy landscape[1] - The anti-overcompetition initiative aims to serve the unified market and high-quality development, addressing both improper competitive practices and supporting new products, technologies, and services[1] - The report outlines a three-phase approach to address "overcompetition," focusing initially on behavior regulation and market capacity governance, with potential administrative interventions if necessary[1] Group 2: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The first positioning of anti-overcompetition is to enhance industrial competitiveness and align supply and demand, focusing on improving supply quality and efficiency to avoid waste of resources[2] - The second positioning is to facilitate a unified market, with past initiatives including the issuance of market access guidelines and the elimination of 4,218 regulations that hinder fair competition[3] - The report suggests that the anti-overcompetition initiative is not urgent compared to the supply-side reforms initiated in 2016, due to differences in objectives, employment constraints, and micro-profit pressures[4][21] Group 3: Industry Involvement and Phased Implementation - The initiative may impact various sectors, including new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and e-commerce, as identified by official statements and industry performance metrics[27] - The implementation is expected to occur in three stages: 1. Regulating enterprise and government behavior to maintain fair competition[32] 2. Market-driven capacity governance through mergers and restructuring[34] 3. Establishing clear "hard targets" to resolve supply-demand conflicts if previous phases are ineffective[37] Group 4: Key Measures and Risks - Key measures include enhancing legal frameworks, promoting product quality, and initiating a new round of growth actions in ten major industries, such as steel and automotive[40] - Risks highlighted include the potential for policy execution to exceed expectations, which could lead to unintended consequences in the market[8]

记者丨易佳颖 编辑丨黄剑 "自8月1日起，瓦楞纸价格、再生牛卡纸价格上调30元/吨""再生纸、瓦楞纸、纱管纸所有克重统一上调 50元/吨"。 自7月初以来，这样的涨价函正密集砸向包装纸市场。玖龙纸业在短短一个月内已六次宣布调涨瓦楞 纸、再生牛卡纸等纸张价格，山鹰国际、理文造纸、湖北荣成等头部纸企紧随其后，纷纷宣布8月起将 执行新价格。 "7月异常降雨严重阻碍废纸回收，"广东造纸行业协会常务副会长陈竹在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访 时指出："近期纸价上行主要受成本端驱动，废纸原料占生产成本70%~80%。广东地区因持续降雨的异 常气候导致废纸回收与物流受阻，进一步加剧供应紧张，对成本构成显著压力。" 卓创数据显示，7月下旬废黄板纸均价达1482元/吨，同比上涨2.75%。然而，若将视野放得更远些，此 番涨价的背后是造纸行业困于"低价内卷"。"在行业出现亏损或微利、已无进一步降价空间的背景下， 纸价反弹成为供需触底后的市场自发现象。"在卓创资讯瓦楞纸分析师李莉看来，此轮涨价承载双重目 的：其一为修复纸厂自身利润水平；其二则为利用价格信号刺激下游在关键节点补库，从而有效缓解纸 厂高企的库存压力。 除了集体提价外，纸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases in the packaging paper market are driven by rising costs and supply constraints, with major paper companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International implementing multiple price hikes in a short period. The industry is facing a "low-price competition" dilemma, leading to a need for price recovery to restore profit margins and stimulate downstream inventory replenishment [1][3][6]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - Since early July, multiple price increase notices have been issued, with prices for corrugated paper and recycled cardboard rising by 30 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The average price of waste yellow board paper reached 1482 yuan/ton in late July, a year-on-year increase of 2.75% [1]. - The price hikes aim to address the high inventory levels of paper manufacturers and stimulate downstream demand for replenishment as the industry transitions from a low season to a peak season [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Responses - The core issue of oversupply in the industry is attributed to weak downstream demand, continuous capacity expansion, and intensified inter-regional competition [4][5]. - The China Paper Association reported that in 2024, the industry is expected to generate revenue of 1.46 trillion yuan, with profits only reaching 52 billion yuan, resulting in a profit margin of 3% to 5% [5]. - The industry is calling for a "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement to resist low-price competition and promote rational business practices [2][6]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts and Future Outlook - Major companies are pursuing strategic transformations, such as Sun Paper's integrated "forest-pulp-paper" model and Xianhe's significant investments in raw material projects [8]. - The industry is facing challenges in establishing a clear policy framework for the anti-involution movement, with suggestions to shift focus from price competition to service, quality, and innovation [9]. - The need for industry self-discipline and fair trading practices is emphasized to ensure the health of the supply chain and avoid detrimental low-price competition [9].

Core Viewpoint - The seminar on Xi Jinping's Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era highlighted the originality and systematic nature of Xi Jinping's economic thought, emphasizing its role in addressing complex international challenges and advancing Chinese modernization [1] Group 1: Original Concepts and Theoretical Contributions - Xi Jinping's economic thought introduces a series of original concepts such as "new normal" in economic development, "supply-side structural reform," "high-quality development," and "modern economic system," which are rooted in China's realities and aimed at solving practical issues [2] - The theory of improving the socialist market economy system is a significant theoretical contribution, emphasizing the market's decisive role in resource allocation while enhancing government functions [2] - The theory of promoting high-quality development is defined as development that meets the growing needs of the people, serving as a fundamental guideline for economic policy and macroeconomic regulation [3] Group 2: Structural Reforms and New Development Patterns - The supply-side structural reform theory identifies supply-side constraints as the main challenge to economic development, marking a critical focus for enhancing high-quality growth [3] - The concept of constructing a new development pattern emphasizes the interplay between domestic and international cycles, aiming to enhance China's economic resilience and competitive advantages in a complex global environment [4] Group 3: Systematic Economic Theory - Xi Jinping's economic thought aims to establish a systematic economic theory based on China's unique conditions and development practices, with concepts like new development philosophy and Chinese-style modernization as key components [4][6] - The new development philosophy addresses various theoretical and practical questions regarding development, providing a framework for exploring innovative development patterns and principles [5][6] - Chinese-style modernization represents a theoretical innovation that integrates the common characteristics of modernization with China's specific context, addressing critical issues related to the goals and pathways of socialist modernization [6]

专题报告 2025-08-04 站在政策主线角度回顾 2016 年焦煤行情 报告要点： 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 我们完整回顾了 2016 年焦煤从底部 515.5 元/吨一路攀升至 1650.5 元/吨的过程。观察到了政 策是如何一步步从提出、细化、强化到最终落地，盘面行情又是如何一步步从混沌、质疑最后 到坚信、狂热的过程。单纯站在"供给侧结构性改革"政策主线的视角之下，我们能够清晰的 感受到高级别政策的强大意志以及其对于行情的强烈指引性。我们认为这是在基本面之上更为 清晰而且底层的主线，且领先于品种自身的基本面情况。 陈张滢 黑色金属研究 | 黑色 站在政策主线角度回顾 2016 年焦煤行情 "看它的过去，就可以知道它的现在；看它的过去和现在，就可以知道它的将来。" 借着"反内卷"之下对于当前这轮浩浩荡荡行情的思考，我们尝试换一个视角去观察焦煤 2016 年"供给侧结构性改革"之下的行情。全文我们将主要以"供给侧结构性改革"政策相关的主 要会议、文件为展开脉络（按时间顺序），并对应到当时焦煤盘面的价格 ...

Group 1 - The cumulative tax cuts and fee reductions in China from 2021 to the first half of this year reached 9.9 trillion yuan, expected to reach 10.5 trillion yuan by the end of this year, averaging over 2 trillion yuan annually [1] - Tax cuts and fee reductions are crucial for reducing the burden on enterprises and stimulating market vitality, allowing more funds for reinvestment and enhancing the multiplier effect of investments [1][2] - Structural tax cuts aim to allocate more resources to critical areas for national development, supporting the construction of a modern industrial system, with significant tax incentives for R&D expenditures [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector is a key focus of structural tax cuts, with measures like lowering VAT rates and increasing VAT refunds, contributing to the growth of manufacturing enterprises [2] - From 2021 to 2024, the sales revenue of manufacturing enterprises is expected to maintain around 29% of total enterprise sales, with high-end and high-tech manufacturing sectors showing annual growth rates of 9.6% and 10.4% respectively [2] - Tax cuts not only expand production and exchange but also enhance resource allocation efficiency and support the construction of a unified national market [2] Group 3 - The emphasis on improving the quality and efficiency of tax policies is essential, with a focus on utilizing tax data to better implement policies and support innovation and manufacturing [3] - Future tax policies should be refined to support foundational R&D and the transformation of technological achievements, particularly in emerging sectors like new energy and robotics [3] - The approach of using tax reductions to enhance enterprise efficiency and market vitality is a vital pathway for promoting high-quality economic development in China [3]