2025 年 8 月 28 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银、豆粕期货将偏强震荡 多 晶硅、碳酸锂、焦煤期货将偏弱宽幅震荡 螺纹钢、玻 璃、纯碱、PTA、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2509 阻力位 4404 和 4449 点，支撑位 4360 和 4330 点；IH2509 阻力位 2930 和 2951 点，支撑位 2903 和 2880 点；IC2509 阻力位 6900 和 6966 点，支撑位 6810 和 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Frost & Sullivan Global Growth, Innovation, and Leadership Summit, along with the Fourth New Investment Conference, was held in Shanghai, gathering over 200 prominent guests and expecting more than 4,000 professional attendees [1][2] - The conference focused on cutting-edge industry trends and capital movements, covering areas such as macroeconomics, technological innovation, healthcare, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and ESG practices [1] - Nearly 20 research outcomes were released at the event, including white papers on industry development trends, PE/VC fund industry CFO insights, and best practices in ESG [1] Group 2 - The theme of the conference was "Intelligent New Journey: Co-creating Global Growth Poles," aiming to gather insights from the global industry, academia, and investment sectors to explore new growth points, markets, and tracks for the Chinese economy in the new era [2]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, China's economy achieved a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year, reflecting strong resilience and vitality despite global economic challenges and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Economic Growth Drivers - The growth was primarily supported by effective policy measures and a recovering domestic demand market. Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies provided substantial support for economic growth [3][4]. - Fiscal policy saw an increase in the issuance of government bonds, with a record issuance scale for the first half of the year, including the early issuance of special government bonds amounting to 555 billion yuan, which is an 18% increase compared to the same period last year [3][4]. - Monetary policy maintained ample liquidity, with a further decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), reducing financing costs for enterprises and stimulating market activity [3][4]. Domestic Demand and Investment - The continuous recovery of the domestic demand market significantly supported economic growth. Consumption was gradually improving due to policies like trade-in programs and upgrades in the service sector [4]. - Infrastructure investment countered the downward pressure from the real estate market, while manufacturing investment remained resilient, particularly in high-tech industries [4]. - Despite external pressures, export challenges were mitigated through market diversification and policy support for domestic sales [4]. Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - The overall outlook for the macroeconomic situation in the second half of 2025 is optimistic, with expectations of stable growth supported by strong policy measures. The dual-track approach of consumption and investment is anticipated to continue driving the recovery of the domestic market [4][5]. - The focus of macroeconomic policies will be on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with an emphasis on sustainable development through structural optimization and quality enhancement [5].

Market Overview - The Chinese stock market has recently shown exceptional performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high since 2015, and the CSI 300 Index surpassing a four-year peak [3] - The surge in the market reflects multiple macroeconomic factors, primarily driven by extremely ample domestic liquidity [3] Liquidity and Investment Trends - A significant influx of household savings into the stock market is observed as bank deposit rates and bond yields continue to decline, leading to daily trading volumes on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges exceeding 2 trillion yuan for nine consecutive days, marking a historical record [3] Policy and External Factors - There is an increasing expectation of policy stimulus, coupled with a thaw in China-US trade relations, which has injected optimism into the market [3] - The extension of the tariff truce agreement by Trump has alleviated external uncertainties, further supporting market sentiment [3] - Strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also enhanced the flow of capital from the US to China, creating a favorable external financial environment [3] Stock Flow Insights - On the Hong Kong Stock Connect, there was a net outflow of 1.37 billion HKD on Monday, with Alibaba (09988.HK) recording the highest net inflow of 590 million HKD, followed by Kuaishou (01024.HK) [3] - Conversely, the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) experienced the largest net outflow, amounting to 2.3 billion HKD, followed by Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the copper sector within the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting optimistic prospects for Q4 2025 and beyond [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Positive Outlook for Copper Sector**: The copper sector is expected to perform well in Q4 2025, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum recommended as standard investment targets due to their low valuations and potential for increased dividends [1][3]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Monthly supply of electrolytic copper in China is approximately 1.8 to 1.9 million tons, while demand fluctuates between 1.7 to 2.1 million tons. The demand is expected to remain strong in 2025, driven by sectors such as electricity, automotive, and home appliances [1][6][7]. - **Global Supply Constraints**: Global refined copper production is projected to grow by about 2% in 2025, with limited new supply expected. The Cobre Panama project is recovering slowly, with full production not anticipated until the second half of 2026 [1][9][13]. - **Price Projections**: Copper prices are expected to exceed $11,000 per ton in the first half of 2026, with prices above $12,000 being necessary to incentivize new mining projects [1][14][24]. - **Market Dynamics**: The recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have influenced market expectations for interest rate cuts, positively impacting copper and gold sectors [2][5]. Additional Important Insights - **Demand Drivers**: The main sectors driving copper demand include electricity (approximately 50%), home appliances (14-15%), and automotive (13-14%). The demand is expected to improve in Q4 due to increased orders from the State Grid [7][30]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jinchen Group, as well as flexible targets like Hengli Nonferrous, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming period [3][34]. - **Long-term Supply Trends**: The global copper supply is not expected to see significant increases in the coming years, with growth rates projected to be around 2-3% [26][31]. - **Recycling Challenges**: Domestic waste copper recovery is not expected to see substantial growth in the short term due to various policy impacts and market conditions [10][11]. Conclusion The copper industry is poised for growth, driven by strong demand in key sectors and constrained supply. Investment in leading companies within the sector is recommended, with a focus on the upcoming price increases and market dynamics influenced by macroeconomic factors.

Economic Performance - The ICHI Composite Economic Index shows continued expansion, indicating a strengthening economic momentum in China[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index has significantly risen, returning to the expansion zone and reaching a new high in nearly a month[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, supported by consumption policies[2] Investment and Production - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, with high-tech industries seeing investment growth rates exceeding 15%[2] - The Production Index has improved significantly, with capacity utilization rates rising, contributing to economic growth[1] - Exports increased by 7.3% year-on-year, showcasing resilience in external trade despite a global slowdown[2] Employment and Inflation - The urban survey unemployment rate in July remained stable at 5.2%, consistent with the previous year[2] - In the UK, July CPI rose by 3.8%, the fastest increase in 18 months, driven by higher prices in travel and fuel[6] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising to 235,000, the highest since June[6]

Macroeconomic Outlook - Goldman Sachs summarizes Chinese local clients' views on the current economy [1] - The report covers import and export, inflation, and macroeconomic data [1] Regulatory and Market Factors - The report includes regulatory policies, capital markets, and RMB exchange rates [1]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is evolving primarily through the restructuring of globalization rules by the U.S. and China's ongoing efforts to catch up, with both economies accounting for over 40% of global GDP[11] - Since 2015, China's share of global GDP increased by 3.6 percentage points to 18.5% in 2021, while the U.S. share rose to 26.2% in 2024, up 2.1 percentage points from 2021[11] - The competition among major economies is reflected in actual economic growth rates, inflation, and exchange rates, indicating a complex interplay of supply-demand cycles and financial system adjustments[12] Group 2: U.S. Economic Policies and Trends - The U.S. retail sales maintained a high growth rate, with a 3.9% year-on-year increase in July, and an average growth of 4.3% from March to July 2024, despite tariff uncertainties[18] - The "Big and Beautiful Act" is expected to increase fiscal deficits by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with significant tax cuts for both residents and businesses, potentially stabilizing consumer demand[28] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may be limited due to rising core inflation, which reached 3.0% in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[25] Group 3: China's Economic Challenges and Strategies - China's exports have shown resilience, driven by technological advantages and competitive pricing, but may face pressure in 2026 due to rising tariffs and a high base effect from 2025[61] - The real estate market and household debt cycles are undergoing adjustments, with a need for increased consumer subsidies to stimulate demand[67] - The core CPI in China is stabilizing, influenced by rising gold prices and efforts to counteract local government inefficiencies[67]

人民财讯8月25日电，《金融时报》记者近日专访了招商基金研究部首席经济学家李湛博士，深入剖析 宏观经济结构创新背后的深层逻辑，探讨经济增长新动力与可持续发展路径。李湛博士对2025年下半年 宏观经济的整体展望充满信心。尽管面临一定的挑战，但总体来看，2025年下半年宏观经济形势有望在 政策的有力支持下保持稳定增长。政策的协同发力将为经济增长提供坚实的基础，消费和投资的双轨并 行将推动内需市场的持续回暖，产业升级和科技创新将为经济增长注入新的动力。在全球经济格局中， 中国经济将继续发挥引领作用。通过推动产业升级和科技创新，中国经济将不断提升在全球产业链中的 地位，为全球经济复苏提供新的动力。同时，通过扩大内需市场，中国经济将为全球企业提供更多的市 场机会，促进全球经济的协同发展。此外，中国在应对通缩压力、稳定物价水平等方面的政策经验，也 将为其他国家提供有益的借鉴，推动全球经济的稳定发展。 ...

Economic Growth and Policy Support - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, reflecting strong growth resilience and vitality, supported by effective policy measures and a recovering domestic demand market [1][2] - Fiscal policy saw an increase in the issuance of government bonds, with over 555 billion yuan in special bonds issued in the first half of the year, an 18 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year [1] - Monetary policy maintained ample liquidity, with a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), reducing financing costs for enterprises and stimulating market activity [1][2] Domestic Demand and Investment - The continuous recovery of the domestic demand market provided significant support for economic growth, driven by policies such as trade-in programs and upgrades in the service sector [2] - Infrastructure investment countered the downward pressure from the real estate market, while manufacturing investment, particularly in high-tech industries, showed notable growth [2] - Despite external pressures, diversification in market expansion and policy-supported measures to shift to domestic sales helped alleviate export pressures [2] Future Economic Outlook - The overall outlook for the second half of 2025 is optimistic, with expectations of stable growth supported by strong policy measures [3] - The dual-track approach of consumption and investment is anticipated to continue driving the recovery of the domestic market, while industrial upgrades and technological innovation will inject new momentum into economic growth [3] - China's economic role in the global landscape is expected to strengthen, providing new opportunities for global enterprises and contributing to collaborative global economic development [3] Policy Directions - A meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on July 30, 2025, outlined the direction for economic work in the second half of the year, emphasizing stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [4] - The coordinated upgrade of fiscal and monetary policies will focus on four key areas: technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade [4] - The macroeconomic policies for the second half of 2025 will prioritize sustainable development, structural optimization, and high-quality economic growth [4]