Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows resilience, with varying growth drivers across regions, including technology and AI in the US, inventory replenishment in Europe, and fiscal spending in China [3] - The global monetary policy easing cycle has commenced, with major central banks starting to cut interest rates in 2023, although the pace may be slower than market expectations [4] - A significant shift of funds from cash to fixed income and equity markets is occurring, driven by declining risk-free rates and the diminishing advantages of holding cash [5] Economic Growth and Policy - Policy support for economic growth is increasing, with a notable decline in leverage ratios across both developed and emerging markets, although disparities exist among sectors [2] - The US economy's growth is primarily supported by capital investments in technology and AI, while Europe benefits from trade uncertainties leading to inventory restocking [3] Investment Opportunities - The global high-yield bond market is maturing, with improved issuer quality and reduced average duration, making it an attractive investment option [6] - Investment-grade bonds remain appealing due to strong fundamentals and yields above historical averages, particularly in the US and Europe [6] - Emerging market bonds, especially local currency bonds, are gaining attention as they can enhance portfolio returns while reducing overall risk [6][7] Market Trends - The "cash migration" phenomenon is evident, with a significant increase in money market fund sizes since 2022, indicating a shift towards fixed income investments [5] - The expectation of a weaker US dollar in the medium to long term suggests that emerging market bonds may perform well during this period [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - outlook is repeatedly but relatively stable, and aluminum ingots are steadily making up for lost ground. In the medium - to - short - term, supply disruptions continue to support the prices of base metals, but macro support has weakened, leading to base metals rising and then falling. With the copper - aluminum ratio remaining above 4, opportunities for aluminum ingots to make up for lost ground can be continuously focused on. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [2]. - For individual metals: - Copper: After the Fed's rate cut, copper prices are operating at a high level and are expected to be volatile and moderately strong [8][9]. - Alumina: The current fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating [9]. - Aluminum: The macro environment remains positive, and aluminum prices are rising with fluctuations [12][13]. - Aluminum alloy: Scrap aluminum remains in short supply, and the market is fluctuating and moderately strong [14][15]. - Zinc: The accumulation of social inventory has significantly slowed down, and zinc prices have rebounded slightly [17]. - Lead: Social inventory remains at a low level, and lead prices are fluctuating [18]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory continues to increase, and nickel prices are fluctuating [20][21]. - Stainless steel: Nickel - iron prices are falling, and the stainless - steel market is operating weakly [21][22]. - Tin: Raw material supply is tight, and tin prices are fluctuating at a high level [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook Copper - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's rate cut, copper prices are operating at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and moderately strong [8]. - **Analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29. In September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month, a 4.31% decline, and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. As of November 3, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 1.75 tons to 20.01 tons. On October 30, Sino - US leaders met and agreed to strengthen cooperation in various fields [8]. - **Logic**: The Fed's rate cut has been implemented, and Powell's remarks are slightly hawkish, leading to short - term adjustments in copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have risen, causing a decline in electrolytic copper production. On the demand side, the peak demand season has arrived, but inventory reduction is not obvious, and high prices are suppressing demand [9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating [9]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the comprehensive price of alumina in the north remained flat at 2840 yuan, and the national weighted index decreased by 8.8 yuan to 2862.4 yuan. Affected by environmental control, a large - scale alumina enterprise in Hebei plans to shut down 2 roasting furnaces for maintenance from 18:00 on November 3 and resume on November 8 [9][10]. - **Logic**: Recently, macro sentiment has amplified market fluctuations. On the fundamental side, high - cost production capacity has fluctuated, but supply contraction is not obvious, and the domestic market is still in a strong inventory - accumulation trend. However, as the valuation enters a low - level range, price fluctuations may increase [10][11]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The macro environment remains positive, and aluminum prices are rising with fluctuations, with a medium - term outlook of the price center continuing to move up [12][13]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum was 21440 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream consumption area's aluminum rod inventory remained unchanged at 13.80 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 62.7 tons. The Fed cut interest rates as expected and will stop reducing the balance sheet from December 1. Sino - US leaders reached a consensus on tariff suspension [12]. - **Logic**: The macro environment remains positive. On the supply side, domestic operating capacity and the start - up rate are at a high level, while overseas supply has continuous marginal disruptions. On the demand side, the traditional peak season has passed, terminal demand is stable, and social inventory reduction has slowed down. The copper - aluminum ratio is above 4, and the valuation of aluminum is relatively low [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Scrap aluminum remains in short supply, and the market is fluctuating and moderately strong in the short - term, with a medium - term outlook of price fluctuations [14][15]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 21000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. It is estimated that the retail market scale of narrow - sense passenger cars in October will reach about 2.2 million units, a 2% month - on - month decline [14][15]. - **Logic**: On the cost side, the shortage of scrap aluminum supply is difficult to change in the short - term. On the supply side, the weekly start - up rate has slightly increased, but some alloy plants face the risk of production reduction or suspension. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement, and automobile sales are resilient [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The accumulation of social inventory has significantly slowed down, and zinc prices have rebounded slightly, with a medium - to - long - term outlook of price decline [17]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the spot price of Shanghai 0 zinc was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the main contract. As of November 3, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 16.17 tons, an increase of 0.02 tons from last Thursday. A new earthquake occurred at the Xantho Extended ore body of the Golden Grove mine in Western Australia, and the company withdrew its full - year zinc production guidance [17]. - **Logic**: The Sino - US economic and trade relationship shows a缓和 signal, and the 15th Five - Year Plan is becoming clearer. On the supply side, the short - term supply of zinc ore has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with high production enthusiasm. On the demand side, domestic consumption is entering the off - season, and demand expectations are average [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Social inventory remains at a low level, and lead prices are fluctuating moderately strong [18]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10025 yuan/ton, and the original - recycled price difference was 75 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17225 yuan, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 3.02 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons from last Thursday. In November, the maintenance and resumption of production of primary lead and recycled lead enterprises are concurrent, and lead ingot inventory may increase [18]. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot premium and the original - recycled price difference are stable. On the supply side, the price of scrap batteries is stable, and the production of recycled lead smelters is increasing, while the production of primary lead smelters is decreasing. On the demand side, although some lead - acid battery factories have temporarily reduced production, the overall start - up rate is high [18]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: LME nickel inventory continues to increase, and nickel prices are fluctuating [20][21]. - **Analysis**: On November 2, LME nickel inventory was 252750 tons, an increase of 648 tons from the previous trading day. Asian Battery Metals Company is actively exploring its copper - nickel and copper - gold project portfolio in Mongolia. Rongbai Technology has achieved ten - ton - level shipments of high - nickel and ultra - high - nickel all - solid - state cathode materials [20]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and the production of intermediate products has recovered. The market is in a state of excess, and inventory is accumulating [21]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel - iron prices are falling, and the stainless - steel market is operating weakly, with an outlook of range - bound fluctuations [21][22]. - **Analysis**: The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory is 73482 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous trading day. The average price of SMM's 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.5 yuan/nickel point. In October, stainless - steel production continued to increase, and social inventory slightly increased [21][22]. - **Logic**: Nickel - iron and chromium prices are falling, and the cost support for steel prices is weakening. Although production has increased, downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited, and inventory may continue to accumulate during the off - season [22][23]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Raw material supply is tight, and tin prices are fluctuating at a high level [23]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 130 tons to 2830 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 56 tons to 5730 tons. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's 1 tin ingot was 285400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1000 yuan/ton from the previous day [23]. - **Logic**: Supply constraints in the tin market still exist, and the bottom support for tin prices is strengthening. In Wa State, production may be delayed, and in Indonesia, the supply of refined tin is expected to be tight. However, the resumption of production by Yunxi has led to an increase in the start - up rate of refined tin, and inventory reduction has slowed down, limiting the upward space for tin prices [23]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On November 3, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased by 0.10% to 2250.33, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.02% to 2546.82, the industrial products index increased by 0.09% to 2237.50, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.15% to 1352.44 [146]. - **Sector Index**: On November 3, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index increased by 0.50% to 2494.27, with a 0.57% increase in the past 5 days, a 3.38% increase in the past month, and an 8.06% increase since the beginning of the year [147].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/04 Commentary: Rapeseed Meal, Crude Oil, Aluminum Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical situations, and reversals in policy trends. 宏观：中欧出口管制对话磋商在布鲁塞尔举行。 China Futures Daily Note 期货：11 月 3 日，股指期货涨跌不一，多数国债期货下跌；商品期货涨跌不一，幅度有限。 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Co ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The divergence within the Fed has increased, making the December interest rate cut more uncertain. With the easing of Sino - US relations, the safe - haven sentiment has cooled significantly, and gold may迎来 a major cycle inflection point. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the medium term [1]. - For rubber, although the overall shipment pressure remains high in November and the utilization rate of production capacity is restricted, the low inventory and low warehouse receipts in China provide medium - term support, and the downward space of rubber prices may be limited [2]. - Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the digestion of macro - positive news, the low - level operation of the real estate market, the end of the traditional peak demand season, and the expected reduction of blast furnace hot metal production [4]. - The coke spot market is running strongly. Although the coking profit is under pressure and the steel mill's production is restricted, the hot metal is expected to rebound after a short - term decline, and the third round of price increase has started [5]. - For silicon iron, the high cost and high steel output support the price, but the loose supply - demand relationship restricts the upward space [6]. - The economic downward pressure increases, and the bond market is expected to be slightly bullish in the medium term due to factors such as the need for counter - cyclical adjustment and the possible open - market operation of government bonds [6]. - For silver, the short - term is in a shock, and it is still bullish in the long term due to the increasing economic downward pressure in the US and the increasing demand for counter - cyclical interest rate cuts [7]. - For rapeseed meal, the rigid shortage of supply and low inventory of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of price decline, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. - Palm oil is expected to run weakly in the short term due to the significant increase in Malaysian palm oil production in October and the expected inventory accumulation [8]. - The price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly in the near future due to the increase in supply and insufficient demand growth [9]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2160, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - PX should be treated with a shock perspective. Although the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level and the PXN processing fee is under pressure, the stable crude oil provides support for the lower price [11]. - Crude oil prices have stabilized, but there is still supply pressure in the remaining period of the year, and the price may be in a shock state. Only when the geopolitical conflict intensifies can the price center rise [13]. - Polypropylene is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 6590, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - Soda ash is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 1205, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Gold**: The divergence within the Fed makes the December interest rate cut uncertain. Sino - US relations ease, and gold may迎来 a major cycle inflection point. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the medium term [1]. - **Silver**: The US economic downward pressure increases, which is bearish for silver in the short term, but the increasing demand for counter - cyclical interest rate cuts is bullish in the long term. It is in a shock - bullish state with limited downward space [7]. - **Steel (including rebar)**: Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to factors such as the digestion of macro - positive news, the low - level operation of the real estate market, and the expected reduction of blast furnace hot metal production [4]. - **Coke**: The coke spot market is running strongly. The third round of price increase has started, and the futures price is expected to be stable [5]. - **Silicon Iron**: The high cost and high steel output support the price, but the loose supply - demand relationship restricts the upward space [6]. Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rigid shortage of supply and low inventory of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of price decline. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to Sino - Canadian trade policies [8]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil production increased significantly in October, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. The domestic market is weak in the short term [8]. - **Live Pigs**: The price is expected to adjust weakly in the near future due to the increase in supply and insufficient demand growth [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The overall shipment pressure is high in November, but the low inventory in China provides medium - term support, and the downward space of rubber prices may be limited [2]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2160, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PX**: It should be treated with a shock perspective. The high load of Asian and domestic PX and the pressure on PXN processing fees coexist with the support from stable crude oil [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price has stabilized, but there is still supply pressure in the remaining period of the year, and it may be in a shock state [13]. - **Polypropylene**: It is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 6590, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - **Soda Ash**: It is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 1205, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic downward pressure increases, and the bond market is expected to be slightly bullish in the medium term due to factors such as the need for counter - cyclical adjustment and the possible open - market operation of government bonds [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Stocks**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long positions [2][3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation and rebound, cautious long positions [2] - **Black Metals**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long positions [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long positions [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious long positions [2] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level correction, cautious wait - and - see [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US economic data shows signs of cooling, but the market has doubts about the Fed's further interest rate cuts this year, leading to a stronger US dollar and a decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, the manufacturing prosperity level in October declined, and economic growth slowed down, but the policy stimulus expectation increased after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and the quality of economic growth, with the short - term upward macro - drive weakening [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, stocks are expected to oscillate in the short term, precious metals are in a short - term high - level correction, and various commodities have different trends and investment strategies based on their fundamentals [2][3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, with weak demand, employment, and cooling inflation. The US job market shows signs of cooling, and corporate lay - offs this year have reached a new high since 2020. The US dollar index has strengthened, and global risk appetite has declined. Domestically, China's manufacturing prosperity level in October declined, and economic growth slowed down. Policy stimulus expectations increased after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2]. - **Stocks**: Driven by sectors such as film and television theaters, short - drama games, and oil and gas, the domestic stock market rose. The manufacturing prosperity level in October declined, and economic growth slowed down, but policy stimulus expectations increased. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation and rebound, cautious long positions [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market declined slightly on Monday night. The market is waiting for US private - sector employment data to assess the possibility of the Fed's further interest rate cuts this year. Short - term oscillation, long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3]. 3.2 Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets declined slightly on Monday, and trading volume remained low. Real - world demand improved marginally in late October, and speculative demand also increased. Supply decreased due to losses in some varieties and environmental protection restrictions. The short - term steel market is expected to return to fundamentals and oscillate within a range [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined more on Monday. With the narrowing of steel mill profits and the upgrading of environmental protection restrictions, pig iron production continued to decline, and steel mill ore inventories decreased. The global iron ore arrival volume increased significantly this week, and port inventories continued to rise. Iron ore prices are expected to decline further [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron declined slightly, and that of silicon manganese remained flat on Monday, with the futures prices oscillating. The production of five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for ferroalloys was fair. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to continue to oscillate within a range [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash oscillated within a range on Monday. Supply increased this week, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter, with supply remaining loose. Demand remained stable. In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will drag down prices, and a bearish view is recommended [7]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass opened high and closed low on Monday, affected by news from Shahe. Supply remained stable, demand was weak year - on - year, and inventory was relatively high. With the support of anti - involution policies, glass is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand during the year - end completion peak [7]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Multiple Fed officials oppose interest rate cuts. US copper inventories are at a historical high, which restricts future import demand. There is a possibility of the Panama copper mine restarting. Domestically, refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The shutdown of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine will support futures prices, and short - term high - level oscillation is expected [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: On Monday, Shanghai aluminum rose sharply to a one - year high. There is no clear news, and the rise may be due to the repair of the copper - aluminum price ratio and concerns about supply after overseas smelter accidents. The current rise has deviated from fundamentals, and attention should be paid to risks. LME aluminum inventories increased last Friday, and domestic aluminum social inventories de - stocked slowly [9]. - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate increased significantly and then decreased slightly, remaining at a high level. Supply is expected to increase. Demand is weak, and high prices suppress physical demand. However, due to previous low inventories, some downstream enterprises replenished stocks, and inventories decreased. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium and short term [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate declined on Monday. The current supply and demand are both strong, and social inventories are de - stocking rapidly. There was a rumor of the resumption of production in Jiangxi, which led to a decline in the weighted contract. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait for the "emotional bottom" [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon declined on Monday. Demand is relatively stable, and social inventories are slightly increasing at a high level. Supported by the cash - flow cost of large enterprises and the rising coal price, the market is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Monday. With strong policy expectations and weak reality in a stalemate, the spot price of polysilicon is supported, but terminal demand is weak. Affected by the rumor of polysilicon storage and the resonance of the photovoltaic sector, it is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buy on dips [12][13]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is weighing OPEC+'s plan to suspend production increases next quarter. There are concerns about oversupply next year. The short - term upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to window trading [14]. - **Asphalt**: The cost support of asphalt weakened, and the basis narrowed. There is a slight inventory accumulation pressure, and it is approaching the demand off - season. Although the profit is slightly increasing, the supply pressure will increase later. Attention should be paid to the rebound space of crude oil under geopolitical risks [14]. - **PX**: Crude oil price rebound slowed down, and PX oscillated. PTA's high start - up rate provides some demand support. PX remains in a tight supply situation, and short - term price changes are mainly driven by crude oil costs [15]. - **PTA**: Downstream start - up increased slightly, and winter weaving demand increased. However, the supply remains high, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in November [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventories accumulated again, and the downstream start - up is neutral. There is a large inventory accumulation pressure in November, and the price is testing the previous low support with limited rebound drive [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillates with the polyester sector in the short term, but the later pressure is large. Terminal orders are seasonally declining, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [16]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market shows regional differentiation. Port inventories are slightly decreasing, while inland inventories are accumulating. In the short term, the market sentiment is bearish, but the downward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate later [17]. - **PP**: The supply growth rate of PP is higher than the demand recovery rate, and the inventory is relatively high. However, demand shows marginal improvement, and the rebound of crude oil prices supports the cost. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. - **LLDPE**: The core contradiction in the polyethylene market is the increasing supply pressure. Demand is expected to decline after the peak in early November, and the cost support is weak. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure [17]. - **Urea**: Urea supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Agricultural demand is approaching the end, and industrial demand is weak. Export is expected to remain at a low level [18]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean futures rose overnight. Sino - US agricultural trade is expected to improve, and the USDA may raise the export forecast. If the yield per unit decreases, the US soybean ending inventory will shrink, strengthening the cost - recovery logic [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals in China is increasing, and soybean meal supply is sufficient. The repair of Sino - US agricultural trade relations may lead to higher import costs and potential inventory accumulation of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal prices rose, and the spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow [19][20]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil has entered a technically oversold stage. Although there is short - term supply disturbance, it has entered the production - reduction cycle, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains unchanged. It is running weakly in China [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil is adjusting weakly. The supply is strong, but it is relatively resistant to decline due to the increase in import costs. Rapeseed oil inventory is high, but rapeseed inventory is low, and the base price is supported by trade concerns [22]. - **Corn**: The pressure of wet corn sales has weakened, and the spot price is stable. The futures price is running weakly, but the bottom - range market may provide support [22]. - **Hogs**: The overall slaughter volume of pig groups is expected to increase in November. The breeding profit is in the red, and the pig price is unlikely to rebound significantly before the winter solstice bacon - curing consumption peak in December [22].

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at historically low levels, with asphalt plant operating rates at 31.5%, cement dispatch rates at 37.4%, and grinding mill operation rates at 37.2% compared to historical averages[13][14]. - Industrial production is at a historically high level, with PX operating rates at 86.3% and PTA rates at 76.5%[24][25]. - Demand for construction materials is weak, with rebar, wire rod, and building materials at historical lows, and automotive sales showing a decline[32][33]. Price Trends - International commodity prices have rebounded, with crude oil and copper prices increasing, while gold prices have decreased[41][43]. - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing mixed trends, with iron ore and rebar prices rising, while chemical products are showing weakness[44][50]. Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have seen a year-on-year decline, with a 21% increase in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, but still down 34% and 33% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[64][66]. - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with year-on-year declines of 24%, 16%, and 31% in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen respectively[68][69]. Export Performance - October exports are projected to show a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.9%, with port throughput up 8.9% compared to 2024[71][72]. Liquidity Conditions - Recent weeks have seen an upward trend in funding rates, with R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.46% as of October 31[76][78].

原油：宏观和地缘反复，国际油价先抑后扬 正信期货原油月报 20251103 研究员：付馨苇 投资咨询编号：Z0022192 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 Ø 宏观方面：10月预防式降息25个基点，鲍威尔发言偏鹰。CME"美联储观察" ：12月降息25个基点的概率为74.7%，利率不变 的概率为25.3%。到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为57.7%，利率不变的概率为16.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为25.6%。 Ø 供应端：地缘上，10月俄乌战场两极反转，上半月美国总统特朗普声称将在布达佩斯和俄罗斯进行会谈，地缘溢价大幅回落 ，但月底却又宣布取消美俄峰会，并加大对俄罗斯的制裁，同时欧盟也落地了对俄罗斯的第十九轮制裁，地缘在月内出现了极 限反转。最新消息印度石油公司高管称绝不会完全停止购买俄罗斯原油。美国方面，10月24日当周原油产量增加1.5万桶至 1364.4万桶/日。欧佩克方面，欧佩克+八个国家决定在12月份将石油产量配额 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Copper - After the interest rate cut and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. The copper supply shortage supports the price, and downstream demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 86000 - 86500 support level [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November. The electrolytic aluminum market was strong in October, and it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern in November with limited upside potential. Although high aluminum prices have inhibited some consumption and exports, the overall macro environment is positive [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the cast aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and was strong. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the peak season but with a mediocre performance. It is expected that the ADC12 price will remain strongly volatile in November, with an operating range of 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. The smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is not outstanding, but the low overseas inventory may cause a short squeeze on LME zinc, supporting the price. The zinc price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and may remain range - bound [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut, the tin price may decline in the short - term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The future trend depends on the macro situation and the supply recovery in Myanmar [13]. Nickel - The nickel futures market fluctuates within a range. The production of refined nickel is high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures were strong last week, but there was news of potential supply increases, which affected the market sentiment. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in production and an improvement in demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in November, with a reference range of 78000 - 87000 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 87570 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in October was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month [2]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of electrolytic copper in September was 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month. The inventory of various types showed different changes, such as SHFE inventory increasing by 10.83% week - on - week [2]. Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price was 21280 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The alumina production in October was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [4]. Fundamental Data - The electrolytic aluminum production in October was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month. The full - scale market inventory of alumina increased by 31.27 million tons to 437.55 million tons as of October 30 [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots in September was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22280 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in October was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month [11]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of refined zinc in September was 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month. The LME inventory increased by 1.15% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 284400 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in September decreased by 15.13% month - on - month [13]. Fundamental Data - The SMM refined tin production in September was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of SHEF increased by 2.65% week - on - week [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121950 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The production of Chinese refined nickel increased by 1.26% month - on - month [14]. Supply and Inventory - The SHFE inventory increased by 1.87% week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 1.43% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.99% month - on - month [17]. Fundamental Data - The stainless steel import volume increased by 2.70% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 80220 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in October was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month [20]. Fundamental Data - The lithium carbonate demand in September was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.38% [20].

Domestic Macro - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined from previous highs but remains near the critical zone, indicating a temporary pullback rather than a trend weakening due to high base effects post-holiday[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index returned to the expansion zone, reflecting resilient domestic demand, with continued growth in service consumption and travel activities[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index saw a slight decline, primarily influenced by last week's significant expansion base effect[1] - The Export Sentiment Index remained stable, indicating a diversified trade structure buffering against weak external demand[1] - The Production Sentiment Index also experienced a pullback due to high base effects, with corporate orders and operational conditions returning to normal[1] Global Macro - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% and announced the end of balance sheet reduction on December 1[5] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, with a slight increase in the economic growth forecast for the fiscal year to 0.7%[5] - The European Central Bank kept the main interest rate at 2%, citing weak economic recovery in the Eurozone due to trade and geopolitical uncertainties[6] - Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, surpassing the market expectation of 0.1%, with France showing a growth of 0.5%[6] Market Focus - The ADP reported an average of approximately 14,000 new jobs added weekly in the private sector over the past four weeks, indicating a need for more timely employment data[7] - The U.S. government shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of $18 billion, with potential GDP impacts of 1.5% to 2% if the shutdown extends beyond six to eight weeks[7]

研究报告 聚烯烃月报 11 月聚丙烯基本面稍好，但关注重点仍在宏观面 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 聚乙烯方面，10 聚乙烯进口量环比上升 7.61%，国内检修装 置减少，总供应显著增加 6.88%至 398.51 万吨；需求方面跟进不 足，传统"银十"旺季效应减弱，下游工厂开工率虽维持高位， 但新单增长乏力，下游整体开工率环比增幅 2.35%，但农膜开工 缓慢抬升，包装膜需求受电商节提振有限。综合看，受供应压力 及需求抬升有限影响，聚乙烯价格重心下移。 聚丙烯方面，10 月聚丙烯跌后弱反弹，节后归来供需依旧疲 软，并且节后库存累积，市场承压快速下行。临近月底，中美贸 易态度缓和对市场情绪带来一定修复，市场寄希望于四中全会政 策利好，同时临时检修企业增多缓和市场供需矛盾，且新增扩能 接近尾声，市场供需略有改善，市场弱反 ...