Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a significant upward trend, leading investment advisory firms to increase equity positions and focus on growth-oriented funds while reducing fixed-income allocations [1][2]. Group 1: Portfolio Adjustments - Investment advisory firms are enhancing the growth aspect of their portfolios by increasing allocations to growth-style funds, such as Jin Ying Technology Innovation Stock C and Fu Guo Emerging Industry Stock C [2]. - Equity investment positions have been generally increased across various advisory portfolios, with examples like E Fund's stock fund allocation rising from 52% to 55.3% since July [3]. - Some firms, like Xingzheng Global, have adjusted their holdings to favor growth styles over value funds, optimizing their Hong Kong stock allocations in response to market changes [3]. Group 2: Popular Fund Types - Technology and healthcare theme funds have become popular choices for increasing portfolio elasticity, with firms adding funds like the China Securities Robotics Index A and the China Securities Semiconductor Industry ETF [4]. - Funds focused on innovative pharmaceuticals are also favored, with examples including Fu Guo Precision Medicine Mixed C being added to portfolios [4]. - Not all firms are uniformly bullish on innovative pharmaceuticals; for instance, some have reduced exposure to this sector, indicating a selective approach to fund allocations [4]. Group 3: Quantitative Products and Market Sentiment - Many advisory products are incorporating strong growth-style quantitative products to enhance portfolio flexibility, such as the addition of Bo Dao Growth Smart Navigation Stock C [5]. - There is a trend of reducing positions in previously high-performing sectors like gold stocks, reflecting a shift in investment strategy [5]. - Current market sentiment indicates a cautious approach towards risk assets, with some firms highlighting the potential impact of external factors like U.S. Federal Reserve policies on market dynamics [7].

Market Overview - The A-share market remained active from August 11 to August 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing near 3700 points, marking a new high since September 2021 [1] - Financial technology, securities, battery, and optical module sectors showed strong performance, while banking and dividend-themed ETFs weakened [1][2] - The total trading volume of ETFs approached 2 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in trading activity [3] ETF Performance - Over 20 ETFs related to financial technology, securities, batteries, and optical modules rose over 10% last week, with individual stocks like Yingwei Ke, Xinyi Sheng, and Tonghuashun increasing over 20% [2] - The top-performing ETFs included those from Huaxia Fund, Bosera Fund, and E Fund, focusing on financial technology and new energy sectors [2] - Conversely, banking-themed ETFs experienced declines of around 3%, with some dividend and aerospace ETFs dropping over 1% [2] Fund Flow Trends - There is a noticeable trend of profit-taking in ETF funds, with significant outflows from ETFs like Huaxia's and Jiashi's technology-focused products, despite their price increases [3] - The total trading volume for stock and bond ETFs exceeded 500 billion and 700 billion yuan, respectively, with the E Fund's Hong Kong Securities ETF reaching a record weekly trading volume of nearly 120 billion yuan [3] - Funds have been flowing into leading broad-based and popular Hong Kong stock ETFs, indicating a shift in investor focus [3] Investment Strategy Shifts - The market has transitioned from a "bank + micro-disk" approach to pricing based on fundamental trends, particularly favoring growth sectors [4] - Analysts suggest a shift in investment strategies towards growth styles, with a notable switch between large-cap and small-cap stocks driven by valuation differences [4] - The focus is now on sectors with strong industrial trends, as growth leaders are attracting more investor attention due to their profitability potential [4] Future Market Outlook - Short-term market strategies may focus on "bull market synchronous assets," particularly in brokerage, insurance, military, and rare earth sectors [5] - The Hong Kong market is viewed positively, with a focus on pricing trends indicating it may offer better value in the short to medium term [5] - The market is currently experiencing a phase of concentrated hot spots across various sectors, with potential mainline directions including domestic technological breakthroughs and high global market share manufacturing [5]

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown significant activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3700 points, marking a new high since September 2021 [1] - Financial technology, securities, battery, and optical module sectors have performed strongly, while banking and dividend sectors have weakened [2][4] - There is a noticeable trend of profit-taking in ETF investments, with significant outflows from certain technology-focused ETFs [3][4] Market Performance - Over 20 ETFs related to financial technology and other growth sectors saw gains exceeding 10% last week, including those from major fund houses like Huaxia and E Fund [2] - Conversely, several banking and dividend-themed ETFs experienced declines of around 3% [2] ETF Trading Activity - The total trading volume of ETFs approached 2 trillion yuan, with stock and bond ETFs contributing over 500 billion and 700 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The E Fund's Hong Kong Securities Investment ETF reached a record weekly trading volume of nearly 120 billion yuan [3] Fund Flows - There has been a clear trend of profit-taking, with significant outflows from ETFs like Huaxia's STAR 50 and Jiashi's STAR Chip ETFs, despite their price increases [3] - Conversely, funds have flowed into broader market ETFs such as Huaxia's 50 ETF and others focused on non-bank financials and internet sectors [4] Investment Strategy Shifts - The market is shifting from a focus on "banking + micro盘" to a valuation based on fundamental trends, particularly in growth sectors [4] - Analysts suggest a "barbell strategy" is emerging, favoring growth stocks over traditional dividend-paying stocks [4] Future Market Outlook - The market may experience a shift in trading logic, moving from emotion-driven rapid increases to trends supported by fundamentals [5] - Key sectors to watch include technology breakthroughs, high global market share manufacturing, and potentially high-growth areas like pharmaceuticals and new consumption [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a bullish trend, prompting investment advisors to increase equity positions and focus on growth-oriented funds while reducing fixed income allocations [1][2]. Group 1: Portfolio Adjustments - Investment advisors are enhancing the growth aspect of their portfolios by increasing allocations to growth-style funds, such as Jin Ying Technology Innovation Stock C and Fu Guo Emerging Industry Stock C [1]. - The equity investment ratio has been raised across various portfolios, with E Fund Stock-Bond Balance increasing its stock fund holding to 55.3% as of August 14 [2]. - Many advisors are adjusting their portfolios to reflect a positive outlook on growth styles, with a notable shift from value funds to growth funds [2]. Group 2: Sector Preferences - Technology and healthcare theme funds are gaining popularity among investment advisors, with significant additions to tech-focused index funds like the China Securities Robotics Index A [2][3]. - Funds heavily invested in innovative pharmaceuticals are also favored, such as Fu Guo Precision Medicine Mixed C, which has seen increased allocations [3]. - Some advisors are reducing exposure to certain sectors, like innovative pharmaceuticals, while reallocating to sectors like robotics and semiconductors [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Investment managers are cautious about the current market dynamics, noting that the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts may not yield the same market reactions as in previous years [4]. - There is a focus on sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies and a recommendation to consider large-cap indices and dividend-paying stocks [5]. - The market is advised to be wary of over-concentration in small-cap stocks and convertible bonds, which may face risk release pressures [5].

Market Performance - The market showed strong performance last week, with the China Securities Xinhua National Brand Index rising by 3.64% to 1780.22 points [1] - Major indices also saw significant increases: Shanghai Composite Index up 1.70%, Shenzhen Component Index up 4.55%, ChiNext Index up 8.58%, and CSI 300 Index up 2.37% [1] Strong Stock Performances - Notable performers among the index constituents included: - Sungrow Power Supply up 15.54% - Oriental Fortune up 15.34% - Zhongji Xuchuang up 13.74% - Darentang up 10.92% - Several others, including Shield Environment, Fosun Pharma, and Visionox, rose over 8% [1] - Since the beginning of the second half of the year, Zhongji Xuchuang has surged by 63.20%, leading the gains, followed by Covestro at 57.31% and WuXi AppTec at 40.62% [2] Market Sentiment and Trends - The market's risk appetite has improved since July, with a structural market rally observed, particularly in technology stocks [2] - The shift from a defensive to an offensive market sentiment is evident, with traditional high-dividend sectors like banking and utilities underperforming [2] - The market is currently experiencing a liquidity-driven phase, with expectations for a transition to a fundamental-driven phase as domestic demand stabilizes and corporate earnings improve [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain high risk appetite and trading sentiment, with ample liquidity providing numerous investment opportunities [3] - Continued policy support is anticipated to stabilize domestic demand, leading to improved corporate performance and a more sustainable market rally [3]

Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style switching, based on the combination of odds and win rates [1][8] - Last week, the overall market growth style portfolio achieved a return of 3.34%, while the value style portfolio returned 1.02% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.11, while the value style is estimated at 1.09, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rate for the growth style is 68.88%, compared to 31.12% for the value style, based on eight win rate indicators [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated to be 0.45, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.35, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.90%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.03 [4][19]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the backtest of the predictive growth factor shows no significant excess returns before 2022, with a notable differentiation occurring in 2022, where the revenue and net profit growth group (0-15%) performed the best since then, attributed to a market style shift towards value investing due to macroeconomic pressures and declining market risk appetite [1][14]. - The report highlights the introduction of the PEG factor to optimize the investment portfolio, which measures the relationship between valuation and growth potential, suggesting that high-growth companies should have a higher PEG valuation level compared to slower-growing companies [2][21]. - The PEG (1-3) factor was found to be most effective in the revenue and net profit growth group (50%+), with the cumulative return for the revenue growth (50%+) PEG (1-3) portfolio reaching 275.45% and the net profit growth (50%+) PEG (1-3) portfolio achieving 296.87% over the period from July 1, 2014, to July 25, 2025 [3][50]. Group 2 - The report discusses the historical performance of growth and value styles in the A-share market, noting a cyclical rotation approximately every four years, with growth style underperforming since 2022 due to economic pressures and liquidity tightening [7]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the backtest results based on revenue growth, categorizing companies into four groups based on their predicted revenue growth rates, with the 0-15% growth group showing the best performance since 2022 [9][14]. - The report also analyzes net profit growth, indicating that the net profit growth (0-15%) group similarly outperformed in the same period, reflecting a consistent trend across both revenue and net profit growth metrics [15][19]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting PEG valuation levels based on historical context and market conditions, with a recommendation that a PEG below 1.0 is considered a reasonable valuation standard [20][21]. - The backtest results for different revenue growth groups show that the 0-15% revenue growth group performed best with a PEG (0-1) range, achieving a cumulative return of 249.25% [24][27]. - The report concludes that the PEG (1-3) factor is particularly effective for high-growth companies, with significant excess returns observed in both revenue and net profit growth groups exceeding 50% [35][46].

Core Insights - The Growth ETF on the ChiNext board increased by 3.23%, with notable stock performances from companies like Feili Hua, Shenghong Technology, and Changshan Pharmaceutical, which saw gains exceeding 18% [1] - Since April 9, the ChiNext Growth ETF has shown a continuous upward trend, with a cumulative increase of nearly 38%, indicating a bullish market pattern [1] - Huajin Securities suggests that the slow bull market is continuing, with a stable growth style, supported by improving economic indicators such as manufacturing PMI and retail sales growth [1] Market Performance - The ChiNext Growth ETF (159967) tracks the Growth Index, selecting stocks with strong growth and active trading characteristics from the ChiNext board [1] - The ETF's performance is driven by a combination of growth and momentum factors, emphasizing the growth style of the ChiNext market [1] Economic Indicators - Current economic recovery trends are reflected in various indicators, including manufacturing PMI, retail sales growth, and export data, which demonstrate economic resilience [1] - The liquidity remains loose, with an increase in the scale of stock holdings through the Stock Connect program and continuous inflows into the growth sector from newly launched funds and financing [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The convertible bond market continued its moderate upward trend during the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, with the price center approaching historical highs, the valuation structure further stretched, and trading activity remaining high. The repair momentum of both medium - low - priced and high - priced varieties increased, and there were improvements in both credit and elasticity preferences. Low - rated issuers frequently initiated downward revisions, concentrated in sectors such as power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and automobiles. The equity market was dominated by the growth style, with continuous inflows of funds into the science - innovation and manufacturing sectors, and the cyclical and military sectors also performed prominently. The intensity of industry and style rotation increased significantly, and fluctuations might intensify due to short - term sentiment warming. It is recommended to evenly allocate high - quality medium - low - priced individual bonds, considering valuation safety, fundamental support, and liquidity, and appropriately capture event - driven and rotation repair opportunities [2][5]. - Downward revision events in the current convertible bond market are relatively concentrated in sectors such as power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and automobiles, and some industries like the electronics industry have a relatively high PB during downward revisions. The overall credit ratings of companies initiating downward revisions are relatively low, with AA - grade having the highest proportion, followed by AA and A + grades, indicating relatively prominent conversion pressure for medium - and low - rated issuers. Downward revisions mostly occur during market upswings or after sharp rebounds, suggesting that companies tend to adjust terms when stock prices are relatively supported. The market price and premium rate at the time of downward revision are generally in the medium - to - high range, and the subsequent market reaction is generally positive, with some sectors performing significantly better in the week after the downward revision. It is advisable to pay attention to the impact of the motivation and timing of downward revisions on trading strategies and explore opportunities with underlying stock support and valuation repair potential [9]. - The A - share market's major indices continued to strengthen during the week, with small - and medium - cap science - innovation stocks being active. The Growth style dominated, with the STAR 50 and CSI 2000 leading the gains. Although the marginal improvement in investors' risk appetite was observed, the net outflow of institutional funds continued, mainly due to profit - taking behaviors such as portfolio rebalancing. In terms of industries, the cyclical and military sectors led the gains, with non - ferrous metals, machinery, and textile and apparel among the top performers. The consumer sector was fragmented, with textile and apparel and home appliances recovering, while commercial retail was weak. The trading volume distribution showed that the electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and machinery sectors were the most active. Overall, market hotspots were concentrated in high - elasticity and policy - driven areas. It is recommended to focus on high - elasticity sectors such as military and machinery while moderately and evenly allocating to less - crowded and stable sectors, balancing flexibility and risk control [9]. - The convertible bond market continued its upward trend, with small - cap bonds outperforming large - cap ones, and the market's risk appetite recovered. In terms of the valuation structure, the repair momentum was strong in the medium - low - priced and high - priced ranges, while the core medium - priced range faced pressure and declined. Low - priced bonds were supported by credit improvement, and high - priced bonds stabilized due to elasticity - driven trading. The implied volatility fluctuated at a high level, indicating a strong market expectation of future fluctuations. In terms of sectors, cyclical sectors such as machinery, non - ferrous metals, and national defense and military led the gains, and the pharmaceutical biology and basic chemical sectors had a high concentration of funds. Most of the top - performing individual bonds were driven by the strength of their underlying stocks, featuring high elasticity and medium - to - long - term durations. It is generally recommended to maintain a balanced allocation between high - growth and fundamentally stable sectors and be vigilant against short - term fluctuations in highly - crowded sectors [9]. - The primary market supply of convertible bonds was stable during the week, with one new bond available for subscription and seven companies updating their issuance plans, indicating continued active progress. In terms of terms, 27 bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 7 announced no downward revisions, and 1 proposed a downward revision. On the redemption side, 10 bonds were expected to trigger redemption, 3 announced no early redemption, and 7 announced early redemption. Overall, the primary supply continued to be released, and events related to terms and redemptions were frequent, with continued speculative sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of these events on pricing and trading opportunities [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Characteristics of Convertible Bonds with Downward Revisions - By industry, from January to July 2025, the power equipment industry had the most downward revisions, with 8 convertible bonds announcing downward revisions, followed by the pharmaceutical biology and automobile industries, each with 5 convertible bonds announcing downward revisions. Among the industries with downward revisions, the electronics industry had the highest arithmetic average PB, with 4 convertible bonds announcing downward revisions and an arithmetic average PB of 3.6, followed by the petroleum and petrochemical and computer industries, with 1 and 2 convertible bonds announcing downward revisions respectively, and arithmetic average PBs of 3.5 and 3.3 respectively [17]. - The overall credit ratings of companies initiating downward revisions are relatively low. By credit rating distribution, among companies initiating downward revisions from January to July 2025, AA - grade convertible bonds accounted for the highest proportion, with 15 downward revisions, accounting for 30.6%, followed by AA and A + grades [19]. - In terms of market timing, downward revisions mostly occur during market upswings or after sharp rebounds, reflecting that companies tend to adjust terms when stock prices are relatively supported. When downward revisions occur, the market price and premium rate are generally in the medium - to - high range, and the subsequent market reaction is generally positive, with the automobile sector's convertible bonds having an average increase of 10.1% in the week after the downward revision, followed by the pharmaceutical biology sector with an average increase of 7.1% [9][21]. 3.2 Weekly Market Theme Review 3.2.1 Equity Market Theme Review - During the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, the trading themes in the equity market were active, with the military and high - end manufacturing themes leading the gains. The consecutive limit - up index led all themes, with a weekly increase of 17.8%. The trading themes such as the daily limit index, the first - board non - ST index, and the first - board index all had weekly increases of over 13%, indicating that short - term funds' attention to trend - following trading continued to increase. The high - end manufacturing and military sectors performed well, with the liquid - cooled server index and the general machinery selected index rising by 9.0% and 8.1% respectively, and the satellite navigation index and the satellite Internet index rising by 6.8% and 6.4% respectively. The science and technology sector continued to show a differentiated pattern, with the robot industry chain recovering strongly, while the optical module (CPO) index and the circuit board index declined. The pharmaceutical sector declined, with the innovative drug index and the weight - loss drug index falling by 2.2% and 2.8% respectively. In terms of fund flow, the weekly trading volumes of the first - board index and the daily limit index both exceeded 30 billion yuan, indicating increased activity of short - term funds. Overall, market sentiment continued to strengthen, and short - term funds shifted to high - elasticity sectors such as the military and high - end manufacturing, mainly driven by themes. At the same time, it is necessary to guard against the risk of valuation convergence in high - valuation sectors [28]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Market Review - During the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, the convertible bond market continued to be strong, with small - cap bonds leading the gains and large - cap bonds performing relatively weakly. The valuation structure was significantly differentiated, with significant repairs in the medium - low - priced and high - priced ranges and pressure on the core medium - priced range, reflecting that speculative funds were becoming more cautious at high levels. The implied volatility fluctuated at a high level, indicating a strong market expectation of future fluctuations. At the industry level, cyclical sectors such as machinery and non - ferrous metals led the gains, and the trading volume of the pharmaceutical biology and basic chemical sectors accounted for a relatively high proportion. The consumer sector showed increased differentiation. In terms of individual bonds, high - elasticity and medium - to - long - term duration bonds were driven by their underlying stocks and performed prominently, with a significant resonance between themes and cyclical factors. It is recommended to focus on high - quality individual bonds with strong valuation repair momentum, fundamental support, and underlying stock catalysts [32]. 3.3 Weekly Market Tracking 3.3.1 Major Indices and Sector Performance - During the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, the A - share market's major indices recovered. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.1% week - on - week, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.2%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.5%. Small - and medium - cap science - innovation stocks performed well, with the STAR 50 Index leading the gains, rising 3.5% week - on - week, the CSI 2000 Index rising 1.8%, the CSI 500 Index rising 0.7%, and the SSE 300 Index rising 1.2%. The net outflow of institutional funds continued, but the pressure eased. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was about 1.7 trillion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 billion yuan. The net outflow of institutional funds increased from 3.87 billion yuan on Monday to 12.52 billion yuan on Tuesday, then decreased slightly to 11.05 billion yuan on Wednesday, and then increased significantly again, reaching 34.92 billion yuan on Friday, possibly indicating short - term profit - taking behaviors. The average daily net outflow of institutional funds during the week was 17.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.32 billion yuan compared with the previous week, indicating a warming market sentiment [33]. - The A - share market continued its structural differentiation pattern during the week, with cyclical and military sectors performing strongly. The non - ferrous metals sector led the gains among Shenwan primary industries, rising 5.7% week - on - week, followed by the machinery and textile and apparel sectors, rising 5.4% and 4.6% respectively, and the national defense and military sector rising 4.4%. The consumer sector was fragmented, with the textile and apparel sector rising strongly, the home appliance sector showing signs of recovery, rising 2.9%, and the commercial retail sector performing weakly, falling 0.9%. Cyclical sectors generally recovered, with the coal, light manufacturing, and basic chemical sectors rising 3.2%, 3.2%, and 2.3% respectively. Overall, market funds were concentrated in cyclical and military sectors. It is recommended to focus on high - elasticity and policy - favored varieties, while also considering cyclical sectors and guarding against structural risks. In terms of trading volume, the electronics sector had the highest average daily trading volume of 220.78 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 11.13 billion yuan, accounting for 13.2% of the market. The pharmaceutical biology sector had an average daily trading volume of 164.82 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 29.78 billion yuan, accounting for 9.9%. The machinery sector's average daily trading volume was 159.71 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 33.52 billion yuan, accounting for 9.6%. The non - bank financial sector had a significant outflow of funds, with its average daily trading volume decreasing by 30.55 billion yuan week - on - week [39][40]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bond Market Performance - The convertible bond market performed actively during the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, with all major indices rising. Small - cap bonds led the gains, with the Wind Small - Cap Convertible Bond Index rising 2.8%, the mid - cap index rising 2.4%, and the large - cap index rising 1.7%. The market continued its upward trend, and investors' risk appetite increased. The trading activity of the convertible bond market recovered, with the average daily trading volume reaching about 89.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 7.36 billion yuan, but the overall sentiment of funds tended to stabilize. Currently, there is a resonance between themes and small - cap convertible bonds in the market, and the fund allocation has shifted [49]. - When divided by the parity range, the overall valuation of the convertible bond market has stretched. In the parity range below 90 yuan, the valuation has generally stretched, with the premium rate in the range below 80 yuan stretching by 2.80% and the 80 - 90 yuan range stretching by 1.41%. In the 90 - 100 yuan parity range, the 90 - 100 yuan range stretched by 1.82%, and the 100 - 110 yuan range stretched by 1.62%. In the medium - to - high parity range, the valuation was slightly differentiated, with the premium rate in the 110 - 120 yuan range stretching by 2.29%, the 120 - 130 yuan range stretching by 2.07%, and the range above 130 yuan compressing by 0.35%. Overall, the valuation of each range divided by the parity range has mainly stretched, mainly due to the "asset shortage" in the convertible bond market, where the short - term elasticity of convertible bonds may be greater than that of underlying stocks [51]. - When divided by the market price range, the valuation of convertible bonds continued to show a differentiated pattern, with a structural adjustment overall. The valuation in the range below 90 yuan compressed by 1.41%, the 90 - 100 yuan range slightly stretched by 4.36%, the 100 - 110 yuan range's premium rate significantly compressed by 17.84%, the 110 - 120 yuan range stretched by 4.20%, the 120 - 130 yuan range stretched by 7.74%, and the range above 130 yuan stretched by 3.16%. Overall, the valuation of medium - low - priced individual bonds in the 90 - 100 yuan range and high - priced individual bonds above 110 yuan strengthened significantly, while the valuation of the core 100 - 110 yuan range deeply corrected, and low - priced bonds below 90 yuan were also under pressure [53]. - The weighted implied volatility of the convertible bond market's balance fluctuated downward during the week, and the market sentiment became more cautious. The weighted implied volatility of the whole - market convertible bond balance rose from 26.4% on Monday to 27.8% on Wednesday and then declined, closing at 27.1% on Friday, an increase of about 2.1 pct compared with the previous Friday. From a historical percentile perspective, the implied volatility continued to be at the upper end of the 25% - 75% historical percentile range. Considering the 90 - day rolling average and the ± 1.5 - times standard deviation fluctuation range, the current implied volatility continued to operate outside the upper boundary of the channel, indicating an increased market expectation of future fluctuations in convertible bonds [54]. - The median price of convertible bonds fluctuated upward during the week, rising from 125.6 yuan last Friday to 128.6 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. The convertible bond market showed signs of recovery, and the median price of convertible bonds was still higher than the 75% historical percentile, indicating that the market trading sentiment remained at a relatively high level, but the risk appetite was marginally shrinking [55]. - The convertible bond market's performance by sector was generally strong, and the concentration of funds increased slightly. Among 27 industries, the machinery sector led the gains, rising 5.7%, followed by the non - ferrous metals and national defense and military sectors, rising 4.2% and 4.1% respectively, and the beauty care and computer sectors also performed strongly, rising 4.0%. The consumer sector was relatively weak, with the commercial retail and food and beverage sectors rising 1.5% and 1.3% respectively. In terms of funds, there was a high degree of concentration, with the pharmaceutical biology sector having the highest average daily trading volume of 57.15 billion yuan, accounting for 12.8%, followed by the basic chemical and machinery sectors, accounting for 11.5% and 8.6% respectively. The three sectors together accounted for 32.9% of the trading volume, a slight decrease in concentration compared with the previous week. The machinery and non - ferrous metals sectors led the gains, indicating a slight shift in investors' risk appetite, while the pharmaceutical biology and basic chemical sectors still attracted a relatively high amount of funds. The consumer sector showed a more obvious differentiation pattern, with the beauty care sector performing well and the commercial retail sector performing weakly [57][60]. - Individual convertible bonds generally strengthened during the week, with technology and cyclical sectors performing well. Among them, 431 convertible bonds had a week - on - week increase of 0 or more, accounting for 93.1% of the total number of outstanding convertible bonds in the market. The top five convertible bonds in terms of week - on - week increase during the conversion period were Dongjie Convertible Bond (machinery, 39.6%), Jiaojian Convertible Bond (construction and decoration, 23.3%), Julong Convertible Bond (basic chemicals, 19.3%), Gaoce Convertible Bond (power equipment, 18.3%), and Borui Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, 17.7%), with conversion premium rates of 3.5%, 17.9%, 5.9%, 0

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a bullish bias", for stock index options is "oscillating", and for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures present expanding growth opportunities, with a suggestion to over - allocate small - cap growth styles and hold IM. Stock index options should adopt an offensive strategy, switching to a bull spread portfolio. Treasury bond futures remain under pressure and require caution [6][7][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month contracts are - 6.51 points, - 1.50 points, - 23.56 points, - 18.34 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 1.66 points, 2.68 points, 0.54 points, 9.59 points. The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, IM are 11.2 points, - 1.0 point, 69.4 points, 74.4 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 2.4 points, - 0.6 point, - 3.0 points, - 0.8 point. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, IM change by 14212 lots, 6800 lots, 9202 lots, 25544 lots. - The market remained strong on Monday, with the ChiNext Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index rising nearly 2%. The market volume approached 1.9 trillion. The new energy and computer sectors led the gains. The market focus is on the growth area, showing signs of partial spread, and the trend of capital reallocation is clear. It is recommended to over - allocate small - cap growth styles, and IM is preferred among stock index futures. Potential observation windows are the earnings season in August and the parade in early September [6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The market turnover increased by 40.41%, and the PCR of the CSI 1000 stock index option positions increased by 6.15%. The implied volatility of the CSI 1000 stock index option increased significantly. The market trading sentiment is active, and call options are entering the market. It is recommended to switch to a bull spread portfolio [6] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts are 76606 lots, 56309 lots, 34103 lots, 111356 lots respectively, with a one - day change of 17352 lots, 7436 lots, 7715 lots, 22612 lots. The positions are 157180 lots, 108276 lots, 78794 lots, 92576 lots respectively, with a one - day change of - 8769 lots, - 3629 lots, - 3287 lots, - 1193 lots. The spreads between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts of T, TF, TS, TL are 0.105 yuan, - 0.045 yuan, - 0.038 yuan, 0.430 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of 0, 0.010 yuan, 0.014 yuan, 0.060 yuan. The cross - variety spreads of TF*2 - T, TS*2 - TF, TS*4 - T, T*3 - TL's current - quarter contracts are 102.975 yuan, 98.993 yuan, 300.961 yuan, 206.885 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.065 yuan, 0.065 yuan, 0.065 yuan, 0.285 yuan. The basis of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts are 0.001 yuan, 0.020 yuan, 0.019 yuan, 0.150 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.039 yuan, - 0.033 yuan, 0.002 yuan, - 0.063 yuan. - The central bank conducted 1120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 5448 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The rise in risk appetite and the strengthening of commodities may pressure the bond market. The tightening of the capital market also had a negative impact on the bond market. Although the bond market has shown some recovery, the bullish sentiment is unstable, and policy factors may cause significant disturbances. Trend strategy: be cautiously bearish. Hedging strategy: focus on short - hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: the arbitrage space of the main contracts may be limited. Curve strategy: focus on steepening the yield curve [7][8][9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The calendar includes economic indicators such as China's July M2 money supply annual rate, new RMB loans from the beginning of the year to July, and social financing scale from the beginning of the year to July, as well as the US July CPI annual rate and PPI annual rate, and China's July total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - In the field of artificial intelligence and agriculture, a research team proposed the concept of crop - robot collaborative design, developed an intelligent breeding robot, and established an "intelligent robot breeding factory", which is expected to break through the bottleneck of soybean hybrid breeding. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the implementation regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law. - The Central Government Bond Registration and Clearing Co., Ltd. simplified the investment process for overseas central bank - type institutions. - Hangzhou solicited public opinions on a draft regulation to promote the development of the embodied intelligent robot industry, including infrastructure planning, core technology direction, and platform construction [11][12][13]