市场层面显现积极回暖信号，为板块注入动能。海南离岛免税新政首周销售额同比增长35%，显示高端 消费需求强劲。海通国际指出，自2025年第三季度起，中国及亚太市场复苏正从头部向更广范围扩散， 目前多数可选消费子板块的2025年预期市盈率（PE）低于过去五年平均水平，板块整体估值处于历史 相对低位。"需求回暖"与"低估值"并存，中长期配置价值凸显。 12月2日午盘，港股消费板块窄幅震荡，港股消费ETF（513230）现小幅微涨，持仓股中，巨子生物、 波司登、中国旺旺、百威亚太等涨幅居前，小鹏汽车-W、美团-W、同程旅行、中国儒意等跌幅靠前。 近期，国家层面连续释放强力促消费信号，支持方式与内涵显著升级。11月20日，财政部、商务部联合 推出消费新业态、新模式、新场景城市试点，中央财政提供约170亿元补助。核心思路从直接补贴需求 的"输血"，转向承担优化供给结构的外部成本，鼓励地方与企业共同打造首发经济、多元消费场景及IP 跨界等新生态，推动消费向"质量跃升"转型。11月27日，在扩大免签、优化离境退税等政策助力 下，"中国游"、"中国购"热度不减。1-9月离境退税销售额同比翻倍。商务部明确将继续深化国际消费 中心 ...

Group 1 - The investment logic for the optional consumption sector focuses on the certainty brought by the outbound manufacturing industry chain and the recovery of leading brands [3][37][79] - The strategy emphasizes the acceleration of the industry chain moving to Southeast Asia, leading to a surge in orders and a supply-demand imbalance in the textile and apparel sector [3][43][52] - The terminal consumption environment is stabilizing, with a focus on the recovery of the luxury goods industry, which is expected to show resilience [3][73][76] Group 2 - In 2025, the textile and apparel industry is witnessing a clear trend of manufacturing moving to Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, driven by factors such as labor cost differences and tariff impacts [38][43][51] - The investment in Vietnam's manufacturing sector has seen significant growth, with FDI reaching $31.2 billion from mainland China, indicating a strong shift in production capabilities [43][44] - The supply chain dynamics are changing, with brands increasingly transferring orders to Southeast Asia to manage costs and mitigate risks, leading to a potential supply-demand imbalance in the region [52][57] Group 3 - The luxury goods market is experiencing structural changes, with a shift from ostentatious consumption to experiential consumption, which is expected to drive growth in 2026 [73][76] - Companies in the luxury sector, such as LVMH and Richemont, are showing signs of recovery, particularly in the Chinese market, which is crucial for their growth [76][78] - The overall consumer sentiment is gradually improving, which may lead to a recovery in high-net-worth consumer spending in the luxury sector [64][76] Group 4 - Recommended companies for investment include Shenzhou International, which is a leading player in the knitwear industry with a strong presence in China and Southeast Asia, benefiting from supply chain shifts [81] - Another focus is on Superwin International Holdings, a head supplier of functional fabrics, which is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand in Southeast Asia due to its early investments in the region [82]

港股红利逆势上涨，港股红利低波ETF、港股通红利低波ETF、恒生红利低波ETF、港股通红利ETF广 发、恒生红利ETF、港股央企红利50ETF、港股央企红利ETF、港股红利低波ETF、港股通红利低波 ETF、港股红利指数ETF、港股通央企红利ETF南方、港股通红利低波ETF基金涨超1%。 广发证券指出，港股红利在岁末年初日历效应最强，12月-次年1月中旬的阶段获得绝对收益/超额收益 的概率较大、收益率较高。 外资加仓科技，内资加仓红利。根据港交所中央结算系统持股明细数据，最近一周（2025/11/5- 2025/11/11）各类资金合计流入港股市场164亿港元，其中稳定型外资流出139亿港元，灵活型外资流入 69亿港元，港股通流入336亿港元，中国香港或大陆本地资金流出107亿港元。行业层面，最近一周外资 流入软件服务、电气设备、医药生物等较多，港股通流入银行、石油石化、非银金融等较多。 华福证券表示，利率下行周期下，红利高股息的防御性，从资产配置角度而言，红利资产的高股息、低 波动属性能够有效降低投资组合的整体风险水平，优化风险收益比。国内降息周期下的低利率环境、经 济弱复苏的背景均利好红利策略，其中港股红 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the broader market [19] Core Insights - The liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance clearing, with demand expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease. The industry is currently at a low valuation, and pessimistic expectations are fully priced in. The focus should be on high-quality leading companies with strong performance certainty, such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have stable pricing and attractive dividend yields [2][3] - The food and beverage sector has shown mixed performance, with processed food leading gains while liquor, particularly white liquor, has seen declines. The report highlights the importance of brand value and pricing stability in determining long-term competitiveness in the white liquor market [3][6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry increased by 0.07% in the week of November 24-28, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.40%. Among sub-sectors, processed food led with a gain of 5.64%, while white liquor fell by 0.73% [3][11] - The top five performing stocks in the food and beverage sector included Hai Xin Food (+45.38%) and Jia Long Co. (+16.29%), while the worst performers included *ST Rock (-11.03%) and Nanqiao Food (-7.35%) [3][9] White Liquor Insights - Guizhou Moutai's recent shareholder meeting emphasized a commitment to high-quality development over short-term metrics, focusing on sustainable value creation. The company plans to enhance its marketing strategy, manage production capacity, and pursue international market opportunities while reinforcing shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [3][6] - Recent government policies aim to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, which may benefit leading liquor companies with strong brand and channel advantages. The focus is on optimizing supply structures and improving product quality to stimulate effective demand [3][6]

央广网北京12月1日消息（记者卢海宁）据中央广播电视总台经济之声《交易实况》报道，中国证券投 资基金业协会日前发布的数据显示，我国公募基金总规模保持强劲增长势头，截至今年10月底，我国公 募基金管理规模已达到36.96万亿元，接近37万亿元，自4月以来已连续7个月创下历史新高。 西南证券首席投资顾问张刚表示，此轮增长由市场上涨与储蓄资金搬家共同驱动，形成财富效应正向循 环。股票型基金与混合型基金的规模增长，一方面受市场上涨带动，推动了基金净值与规模同步增加； 另一方面，股市上涨会催生财富效应，吸引大量资金要么流入二级市场购买股票，要么进入基金市场申 购这类基金，而这种储蓄资金的转移，进一步促成了基金规模的扩大。 邢星认为，接下来一段时间，机构将重点布局半导体、AI等科技类品种。此外，消费复苏主线及新能 源细分赛道，不仅估值处于合理区间，还叠加了业绩改善的逻辑。另一方面，债券市场调整后也出现了 错配机会，且债市拥挤度有所下降，短债、中短债基金的配置价值愈发凸显。 安杰则建议，当前依然是结构性行情，投资者还是应依据自身风格择机布局。对于激进投资者，可以关 注AI科技、芯片等高波动品种；稳健投资者则可把握绩优高分红 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/12/01 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货大幅收涨，COMEX 黄金期货收涨 1.59%报 4256.4 美元/盎司， 周涨 4.34%，月涨 5.51%。COMEX 白银期货收涨 6.06%报 57.085 美元/盎司，刷新 历史新高，周涨 14.37%，月涨 17%。 2. 国际油价 ...

Economic Outlook - China is expected to maintain an economic growth target of around 5% for 2026, consistent with 2025, reflecting the central government's focus on stabilizing growth and promoting recovery [1] Consumption - From January to October 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, showing a slowdown from a peak of 5% in May [2] - The job market is showing signs of recovery, with the urban unemployment rate dropping to 5.10% in October 2025, and is expected to approach 5.0% [2] - The retail sales growth for 2026 is projected to be around 4.20%, indicating a moderate recovery despite structural pressures [2] Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to October 2025 was 408.914 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant decline in infrastructure and real estate investment [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound significantly in 2026, with a projected growth rate of approximately 5.50% [3] - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to recover to a growth rate of around 5.55% in 2026, supported by improved capacity utilization [3] Real Estate - Real estate investment is at a historical low, slightly above levels during the public health crisis, primarily due to weak sales [4] - The year-on-year growth rate of housing prices is showing signs of marginal recovery, with new residential prices down 2.60% and second-hand prices down 5.40% in October 2025 [4] - The decline in real estate investment is expected to narrow to -10.65% in 2026 [4] Exports - Total exports from January to October 2025 reached 221.146 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, despite uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies [5] - Exports to non-U.S. regions have shown strong growth, with significant increases to Africa (26.10%), the EU (7.50%), ASEAN (14.30%), and India (12.30%) [6] - The global economic recovery and potential easing of tariffs are expected to provide a more stable environment for exports in 2026 [5][6] Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% [7] - Both CPI and PPI are expected to improve, with PPI potentially turning positive in the first half of 2026 [7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a projected deficit rate increase from 4% to 4.5% in 2026, alongside an increase in special bond issuance [8] - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain moderately loose, with potential interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points in 2026 [8] Overall Economic Assessment - The Chinese economy is projected to achieve around 5% growth in 2026, supported by policy measures, external demand recovery, and improving price levels [9]

Group 1 - The AI computing power industry chain continues to show strong performance, with stocks such as ZTE, Zhongji Xuchuang, Hangyu Micro, and Beijing Junzheng rising significantly [1] - Major ETFs are experiencing gains, with the ChiNext AI ETF (159381) up 1.45%, the 5G Communication ETF (515050) up 1.63%, and the Cloud Computing 50 ETF (516630) up 1.16%, all surpassing a transaction volume of 100 million [1] - The latest brokerage "golden stocks" list for December highlights concentrated attention on sectors such as electronics, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage, with themes like domestic computing power, robotics, and consumer recovery gaining traction [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities indicates that high growth in the AI sector is driving significant performance in AI computing power, with the communication industry seeing a 51.67% increase since early 2025, ranking second among all industries [2] - The optical communication sub-sector, closely related to AI, has become the second-largest segment in the communication industry, following the operator segment, with revenue quality improving quarterly [2] - Public funds are increasingly investing in the communication sector, with holdings exceeding 6.5%, suggesting that the market's valuation of the communication industry remains conservative despite high growth potential [2] Group 3 - The ChiNext AI ETF (159381) tracks the ChiNext AI Index and has a significant allocation to optical modules, covering domestic software and AI application companies, with top holdings including Zhongji Xuchuang (27.10%) and Xinyi Sheng (18.66%) [3] - The 5G Communication ETF (515050) focuses on the 5G communication theme index, with a scale exceeding 9 billion, emphasizing companies in the Nvidia, Apple, and Huawei supply chains [3] - The Cloud Computing 50 ETF (516630) tracks a cloud computing index with high AI computing power content, covering popular concepts such as optical modules, computing leasing, data centers, and AI servers [3]

Macro Strategy - In October, industrial enterprise profits showed a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop from 21.60% in September to -5.5% in October, leading to a cumulative year-on-year growth rate decrease from 3.20% to 1.90% [2] - The A-share market experienced a rebound from November 24 to November 28, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 4.54% [3][4] - The rebound in A-shares was attributed to a reversal in the market's previous downward momentum, driven by a shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and a recovery in the technology sector [3][4] Industry and Company Analysis Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry - The Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) sector saw a slight increase of 1.29% last week, the smallest among secondary sub-sectors in the pharmaceutical industry [9] - The price index for TCM materials showed a slight increase of 0.4%, indicating a recovery in market conditions and improved investor sentiment [12] - Multiple regions have initiated price governance for traditional Chinese medicine, aiming to create a unified and competitive market structure [13] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the TCM industry, suggesting three main investment themes: 1. Price governance, focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products that can benefit from price reductions [15] 2. Consumption recovery, driven by macroeconomic improvement and increased health awareness among the aging population, favoring leading TCM brands [16] 3. State-owned enterprise reform, which is expected to enhance performance and create investment opportunities [16] - Recommended stocks include Zhaoli Pharmaceutical and Yiling Pharmaceutical, with a focus on companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products [16]

Core Insights - The recent policy change allowing individuals to withdraw cash over 50,000 without registration is seen as a move to enhance liquidity in the financial market, boosting consumer and investment confidence [3] - The significant borrowing by brokerages, exceeding 100 billion from China Securities Finance, indicates their confidence in the market and willingness to leverage for business, which is a positive sign for market liquidity in the medium to long term [3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The PMI for November rose to 49.2%, with all 11 sub-indices showing improvement, indicating a steady recovery in economic activity supported by both domestic policies and overseas demand [4] - The food and beverage, hotel, and tourism sectors are highlighted as key areas benefiting from the recovery in consumer spending, with companies like Shoulu Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel expected to see performance improvements [5] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The technology growth sector is emphasized, with companies like Haiguang Information and Zhaoyi Innovation repeatedly mentioned as potential long-term investments, particularly in the fields of domestic computing power and commercial aerospace [4] - The lithium carbonate price has surged by 60% over six months, driven by increased demand for energy storage, presenting long-term investment opportunities in related industries [5] Group 3: Market Trends - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has risen to 85.4%, which could lead to increased liquidity globally, benefiting both cyclical and growth sectors [5] - The focus for December's investment strategy should be on two main lines: technology growth in domestic computing power and commercial aerospace, and consumer recovery in hotel, tourism, and food and beverage sectors, along with demand-driven cyclical stocks like lithium resources [6]