1月28日，现货黄金涨势不止，盘中首次突破5300美元/盎司，日内暴涨超120美元，再创历史新高。1月以来现货黄金累计涨近1000美元，涨幅超22%。 | | 贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 伦敦金现 | 5304.613 | 122.865 | 2.37% | | 伦敦银现 | 114.860 | 2.952 | 2.64% | | COMEX黄金 | 5288.7d | 206.1 | 4.06% | | COMEX白银 | 114.310d | 8.353 | 7.88% | | SHFE重等 | 1186.20 | 40.96 | 3.58% | | SHFE自银 | 29219 | 829 | 2.92% | | 上海金 | 1181.32 | 37.45 | 3.27% | 国际金价的飙升迅速传导至国内市场，国内部分主流金饰品牌报价刷新1600元/克，周生生官网发布数据显示，足金饰品报1614元/克，较1月27日1577元/ 克涨37元/克 。老凤祥报价1620元/克，老庙黄金报价1612元/克。 | 周生生 ...

今天，最耀眼的两个板块，无疑是黄金和石油化工。 纽约期金突破5300美元/盎司，现货黄金向上触及5270美元/盎司，续创历史新高；WTI原油期货、布伦 特原油期货，双双上涨。 其中一个，来自美元弱势。 2026年1月27日，美元指数为95.77，跌至近四年最低水平，2026年年初以来，美元指数下跌2.6%。 至此，美元指数和彭博美元现货指数均四连跌，均创去年4月特朗普公布对等关税以来最大四日跌幅。 不过，美国总统特朗普对此却显得云淡风轻，周二被记者问及是否担心美元贬值时，他表示："不，我 认为美元表现很棒。我认为美元的价值——看看我们正在进行的贸易，美元表现出色。" 为何这么强势？ 01、继续狂飙 黄金ETF易方达(159934)今日大涨3.19%，再创历史新高，年内涨21.37%，近3年涨超175%；低费率的化 工行业ETF易方达(516570)涨2.87%。 盘面上，不管是黄金还是原油，都有新的刺激因素。 虽然特朗普不担心美元贬值，但评论认为，美元的跌势还没完。 长期来看，美联储独立性、不断扩大的预算赤字、财政挥霍相关的担忧以及政治两极分化等结构性因 素，正对美元构成下行压力。 有忧，自然就有喜。 首先， ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar is experiencing a significant decline, prompting speculation that the U.S. government may take concrete actions to lower the dollar's value and reshape global trade dynamics, moving beyond mere verbal statements [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar's Performance and Market Reactions - The dollar index has recorded its worst performance in the first half of 2025 since the floating exchange rate era, dropping to its lowest level since early 2022 [2]. - The dollar's decline is not limited to the Japanese yen; other currencies such as the South Korean won, Chinese yuan, and Australian dollar have also seen gains, with the euro reaching a nearly five-year high [1][3]. Group 2: Government Actions and Speculations - Speculation arises that the Trump administration aims to significantly reduce the dollar's real exchange rate, which has appreciated nearly 50% over the past decade, as a strategy to narrow the U.S. trade deficit [4]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's ambiguous stance on the dollar's value and recent actions to support the Japanese yen have intensified market speculation about potential U.S. intervention in the currency market [6]. Group 3: Economic Implications and Risks - The potential for a significant dollar depreciation raises concerns about the stability of U.S. assets held by foreign investors, which exceeded $27 trillion by the end of last year [7]. - A sudden and substantial drop in the dollar could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy-making, especially in the context of rising inflation concerns and political pressures [9]. - Analysts suggest that achieving a weaker dollar while avoiding market turmoil is a challenging balancing act, particularly given the current geopolitical and domestic political tensions [10].

国债期货日报 2026/1/28 3、国家统计局：2025年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额73982亿元，比上年增长 0.6%；12月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长5.3%。国家统计局称，2025年，各地区各部 门加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，加快推进新型工业化，推动工业经济稳定向好运行；全 年工业企业利润实现增长，扭转了连续三年下降态势，其中装备制造业、高技术制造业等新动 能支撑作用明显，传统产业利润结构持续优化，工业经济发展质效不断提升。 行业消息 | | 周三国债现券收益率多数下行，到期收益率2-7Y下行0.5-1.3bp左右，10Y、30Y到期收益率分 | | --- | --- | | | 别下行1.7、1.1bp左右至1.82%、2.25%。周三国债期货集体走强，TS、TF、T、TL主力合约 | | | 上涨0.01%、0.06%、0.05%、0.07%%。资金面边际宽松，DR007加权利率回落至1.55%附 | | | 近震荡。国内基本面端，我国2025年第四季度GDP同比增长4.5%，全年GDP增速达5.0%，圆 | | | 满实现预期增长目标。12月工增高于市场预期，固投规模持续收敛 ...

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Jen warns that a new cycle of dollar depreciation may have begun, and the market is unprepared for it [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The dollar experienced its largest single-day drop since the imposition of tariffs last year, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index falling 1.2% to its lowest level in nearly four years [1] - Trump's comments led to significant volatility in the foreign exchange market, with the euro and pound reaching their strongest levels since 2021, and the Swiss franc hitting its highest level since 2015 [1] - The decline in the dollar has prompted concerns among overseas investors about selling off dollar assets, further exacerbated by previous threats of tariffs and unpredictable Federal Reserve policies [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts note that many forex analysts are accustomed to a strong dollar and a robust U.S. economy, making them ill-prepared for a scenario where the dollar weakens while the economy remains strong [2] - Anthony Doyle from Pinnacle Investment Management suggests that the lack of concern from those who typically support the dollar indicates a weakening support for the currency [2] Group 3: Market Indicators - A market indicator from JPMorgan shows that the risk reversal index for the dollar against major currencies has dropped to its lowest level since June, indicating increased demand for hedging against dollar weakness [3] - The OECD data suggests that the dollar is overvalued against all G-10 currencies except the Swiss franc, with the yen and euro being particularly undervalued [3] Group 4: Diverging Opinions - Not all analysts agree that Trump's comments signal a long-term decline for the dollar; some believe the government is more focused on seeing the appreciation of currencies like the yuan and yen [4] - Robert Kaplan from Goldman Sachs warns that a prolonged dollar weakness could pose risks to the U.S. economy, emphasizing the importance of currency stability over export benefits given the current high debt levels [4]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.41%, reaching a new high, while UnitedHealth fell over 19% [1] - Gold prices reached a historic high, approaching $5,190 [1] - Silver prices increased by over 8.7%, reported at $112.8775 per ounce [1] - Oil prices rose by 3% due to production setbacks in Kazakhstan and the U.S. [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated that silver's volatility will continue, with gold's target price facing upward risks at $5,400 [1] - Citigroup raised its three-month silver price forecast to $150 [1] - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have negotiated with Apple to significantly increase the price of LPDDR memory used in iPhones [1] - A significant agreement was reached between the EU and India, with over 90% of export tariffs being eliminated or reduced [1] - The EU officially launched a satellite communication program for member states [1] - Hong Kong's exports in December increased by 26.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [1] - Semiconductor companies, including Zhongwei Semiconductor and Guokai Microelectronics, have raised chip prices [1] - Ganfeng Lithium expects a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan in 2025, turning from loss to profit [1] - A large number of traditional Chinese medicines will be phased out [1] - Guotai Junan forecasts a 111%-115% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, driven by significant growth in wealth management, institutional, and trading revenues [1] Group 2 - A-share investment alert: ST Nanchuan may face delisting risk warnings due to trading issues [2] - High Alliance New Materials' actual controller and vice chairman, Xiong Haitao, has been detained [2]

前言：富格林深耕市场近16年，兼备亚洲名企500强唯一金企代表雄厚实力，力求为广大投资者适时提 供价值建议警戒冻结欺诈套路滋生，专家分析团队在线交流即时提供进场盈利建议。周三(1月27日)亚 市盘中，现货黄金价格突然再度加速攀升，金价突破5200美元/盎司大关，创下历史新高，延续了由美 元疲软以及从美债和货币逃离所推动的急速上涨。投资者可登录富格林了解学习欺诈套路警戒冻结技 巧，即时咨询进场操作意见锁定丰厚获利良机。 亚洲名企500强唯一金企成员的富格林，背靠香港服务大中华市场超过15年，汇集配备丰富金融交易分 析经验专家团队，精准曝光关键行情资讯趋势，为不同投资者个性化合规定制完善操作盈利套路方案。 现货黄金价格周二（1月27日）收涨，盘中最高触及5190.20美元，大幅刷新历史纪录高点。这一波强势 上涨，让黄金今年迄今累计涨幅超19%，延续了2025年创纪录的涨势。投资者们蜂拥涌向这一传统避险 资产，主要源于全球经济和地缘政治不确定性的持续发酵。在这样一个动荡的世界格局下，黄金不仅仅 是避险工具，更像是投资者对未来不确定性的"保险单"。投资者可通过富格林合规联络专家分析师完善 操作套路策略，善用曝光的操作 ...

Group 1: Dollar Devaluation Insights - The US dollar has fallen below 96, marking a new low since February 2022, which is significant for macro narratives and asset prices[5] - The recent dollar depreciation is attributed to expectations of currency intervention and a decline in dollar credit, accelerated by geopolitical tensions and domestic issues[5] - The strong dollar narrative has been fundamentally challenged since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has impacted Europe and shifted economic dynamics[5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - A weak dollar is expected to benefit non-US equities and commodities, particularly precious metals and industrial metals[5] - Oil prices may see upward movement due to historical performance during weak dollar periods and current supply-demand expectations[5] - The potential for a "Plaza Accord 2.0" is viewed skeptically, as both the US and Japan are unlikely to engage in significant currency intervention without broader cooperation[7] Group 3: Historical Context and Asset Performance - Historical data shows that after significant dollar peaks, various asset classes tend to perform positively, with an average return of 39.5% for oil and 12.0% for gold in the year following a peak[8] - The report indicates that 80% of the time, assets have shown positive returns following dollar peaks, highlighting the potential for favorable market conditions in the wake of dollar weakness[8]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Dollar Outlook - The U.S. political turmoil has led to a surge in bearish hedging, with record costs for traders betting on a deeper decline of the U.S. dollar [1][6] - Short-term option premiums for profiting from a weaker dollar have reached their highest level since 2011, indicating heightened bearish sentiment [1][6] - Investor pessimism regarding the long-term outlook for the dollar has reached its highest level since May 2025 [1][6] Group 2: Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index experienced a significant drop, falling below the 96.00 mark and nearing a four-year low, trading around 96.10 [3][8] - Concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown and President Trump's comments downplaying worries about dollar weakness have contributed to the dollar's decline [3][8] Group 3: Currency Pair Movements - The euro surged past the 1.2000 mark, supported by the dollar's weakness and technical buying after breaking the 1.1900 resistance level [4][9] - The British pound also rose significantly, surpassing the 1.3800 level, aided by favorable economic data from the UK and expectations that the Bank of England will not rush to cut interest rates [5][10]

1月28日消息，由于担忧美国政策的不确定性，美元已经跌到4年最低水平，不过，对此，美国总统特朗普却不以为意！ 当地时间1月27日，在艾奥瓦州接受记者提问时，特朗普表示 ， 他对美元贬值并不担忧 ，并认为美元"正处于应有水平"。 特朗普说："不，我认为美元表现很棒。我认为美元的价值——看看我们正在进行的贸易，美元表现出色。我希望美元能够——找到它自己的合理水平，这 才是公平的做法。" 特朗普的表态被视为向市场发出 容忍弱美元的信号，消息一出，美元继续遭到抛售，美元指数继续走低，最低触及95.71，如下图： 王爷说财经讯：美元跌跌不休，创4年最低水平后，美国总统特朗普表态来了！黄金直接暴涨，突破5200美元！ 发生了什么？一起来看看特朗普是怎么说的？为什么能让美元大跌，黄金暴涨？ 相反， 特朗普这句话直接引爆黄金，现货黄金 强势突破5200美元，最高触及52223美元，如下图： 特别是从长期来看，无论是美联储独立性、不断扩大的预算赤字，还是美国财政挥霍相关的担忧以及政治两极分化等结构性因素，这一系列的利空因素都正 在对美元构成下行压力。 与此同时，特朗普还暗示自己可以影响美元走势，称可以让美元"像悠悠球一样"上下 ...