（原标题：美联储，突发？） 【导读】有关美联储主席的"小作文" 据知情人士透露，特朗普的顾问和盟友认为，哈塞特目前在接替鲍威尔的竞争中领先。 瑞穗证券分析师瓦拉坦说，由于美联储降息的可能性大幅上升，美元保持稳定，但随着哈塞特被提名为 下一任美联储主席的可能性大幅上升，美元汇率出现下跌。市场似乎并未质疑美联储的独立性，美联储 威廉姆斯、沃勒和戴利都支持12月降息。不过，瓦拉坦指出，投资者正在消化哈塞特可能导致美联储政 治化的因素。他说，"哈塞特效应"可能会给美元蒙上阴影。并补充说，只要美联储主席任命的这种政治 上顺从的看法没有消除，美元的贬值风险仍然很高。 一旦哈塞特加入，美联储理事会中将出现两位从6月开始就会积极主张单次50个基点降息的投票成员 ——哈塞特与米兰。有分析师称，"除非反对理由非常充分，否则通常情况下，美联储主席想推动的决 策往往会通过"。 高盛表示，美联储将在12月议息会议上下调利率，几乎已无悬念。当前市场对25个基点降息的定价概率 已达到约85%—86%。高盛固定收益团队指出，就业市场走弱与政策风险管理需求是促使美联储提前转 向的关键因素，且无重大数据预期将改变方向，本次降息几乎板上钉钉。 纽 ...

螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 上周全球股票市场大跌。 原因是美联储降息概率下降，市场短期流动性收紧。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 在上周五的时候，螺丝钉也发文说过，这种流动性收紧带来的市场波动，往往持续时间并不长。 在上周末，出来了一些利好消息，让美联储12月降息的概率提升。 本周全球股票市场大幅上涨。 全球股票指数上涨3.4%。 美股、欧股上涨比较多。 A股港股也整体上涨。 在未来，咱们还是会遇到一些短期流动性收紧带来的市场波动。 不过整体上，美元因为目前利率偏高（还在4%上下），利息支出压力太大。 后面美联储还是要继续降息的。 但具体降息和降息之间，间隔数月到大半年，都很正常。 这个时间可长可短，是人为决定的。 降息与降息之间，也会遇到一些短期的市场波动。 2. 美元降息预期提升，对美债也比较有利。 本周美元债上涨，截止到本周，美债处于5星，但距离4.9星也很接近了。 美元债从去年美联储降息之后，进入上涨行情。 美债全市场指数基金，近一年上涨5.7%。 对债券这种稳健类资产来说，收益率还算不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue until 2026, driven by technology, consumer sectors, and support from state-owned enterprises [1][4]. Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has been one of the best-performing markets globally, with the Hang Seng Index outperforming major indices like Nasdaq and CSI 300 in 2025 [3]. - Technology and consumer sectors have shown the most significant performance in the Hong Kong market this year, with corporate earnings exceeding expectations [3]. - Factors such as the depreciation of the US dollar, inflow of southbound capital, supportive national policies, and a temporary easing of US-China relations are key drivers of the market's rise [3][4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The current bullish trend in the Hong Kong stock market is not seen as a short-term phenomenon, with expectations of a favorable market environment in 2026, including large IPOs that could enhance investor interest [4]. - The three major opportunities for Chinese investment banks include leadership from technology and innovation enterprises, the consumer sector becoming a new growth line, and active support from state-owned and cornerstone investors [4]. Group 3: Internationalization of Chinese Investment Banks - Chinese investment banks face challenges in internationalization, including a lack of international talent outside Greater China and a limited range of product offerings [5][9]. - Cultural integration is identified as a significant challenge for the international development of Chinese investment banks, with efforts being made to promote cultural exchange and training [9]. Group 4: Achievements of Galaxy Securities - Galaxy Securities has made significant strides in internationalization through its entities, Galaxy International and Galaxy Overseas, with the former ranking among the top five Chinese brokers in IPO sponsorship [7]. - The firm has successfully completed several landmark projects and has a strong presence in Southeast Asia, covering 35 markets and 29 exchanges [8]. - Galaxy Securities is the only Chinese broker capable of hosting large-scale local roadshows in Southeast Asia, establishing close cooperation with local sovereign funds and large institutions [8].

Mark the dollar. I think we will resume the structural depreciation trend next year. I think there are potentially a number of factors, right, in that the most important is because of the Trump administration's pressure on the Fed.We know that the setting for monetary policy, wherever it's at, will be easier than Orthodox or Orthodox economics would recommend. And that is at a point when the rest of the world is coming, generally coming to the end of their easing cycles. I still think that the trade dynamic ...

与美联储利率预期密切相关的短期美国国债收益率，起初随着哈塞特在博彩网站上的赔率上升而下跌， 但很快便反弹。 美元和联邦基金利率期货几乎未出现反应，据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具显示，交易员定价12月 降息25个基点的概率为83%。 哈塞特曾担任美联储高级经济学家，被认为与美国总统特朗普政府关系密切，两人均支持更快降息。 富达国际（Fidelity International）战略债券策略首席投资组合经理迈克·里德尔（Mike Riddell）表示， 哈塞特可能被提名为美联储主席，"这让降息再次成为可能，对美元构成利空"。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国债券市场对白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）有望出任下一任美联储主席的前景表现平 静，但表面的平静之下潜藏着一丝隐忧：他偏向降息的立场可能会削弱美元。 在媒体报道后，本周关于哈塞特将在明年5月鲍威尔美联储主席任期结束后接替该职位的押注有所增 加，不过白宫表示，在最终决定出炉前，任何关于新主席的讨论都仍属猜测。 在博彩网站Polymarket上，哈塞特的赔率已上升18个百分点至53%，沃勒以22%位居第二，沃什 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong profit growth for S&P 500 companies, with a year-on-year increase of 12% in Q3 2025, despite macroeconomic concerns [7][8]. Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown negatively impacted Q4 economic growth by approximately 1.1 to 1.2 percentage points, but a rebound to 3.1% growth is expected in Q1 due to government spending [1][2]. - The Supreme Court's skepticism regarding the President's authority to impose tariffs under IEEPA may lead to partial overturning of tariffs, although significant presidential power remains [1][4]. - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December, although uncertainty remains [1][5]. - The AI sector is experiencing significant capital expenditure growth, with projections for large-scale data centers raised from $470 billion to $530 billion [8][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The government shutdown has caused a drag on economic growth, but a rebound is expected due to increased government spending [1][2]. - The labor market's performance will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates [5][10]. Tariff and Legal Considerations - The Supreme Court's upcoming decision on tariffs could reshape the landscape of U.S. trade policy, with implications for specific countries [4][1]. Corporate Performance - S&P 500 companies showed strong profit growth, with a notable increase in guidance for Q4, indicating positive market expectations [7][8]. - AI companies are financially robust, with strong cash flows and low debt levels, positioning them well for future growth despite market volatility [9][18]. Currency and Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to gradually depreciate as economic performance weakens, influenced by labor market data and potential interest rate cuts [10][12]. - Emerging market currencies may perform better if the U.S. economy underperforms, with the potential for a stable yuan to support the Asian region [12][10].

Economic Impact - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, with a projected impact of -1.5% on Q4 2025 GDP and +2.2% on Q1 2026 GDP due to the shutdown effects[2] - The CBO estimates that a six-week shutdown will reduce real GDP by $28 billion in 2025 dollars[41] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December dropped from 70% to 43% following hawkish comments from Fed officials[2] - Key economic data, particularly the November non-farm payrolls, will be crucial for the December FOMC meeting, as October's data may be incomplete[2][4] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets initially rose but later retraced gains due to changing rate cut expectations, with the S&P 500 up 0.08% and the Nasdaq down 0.45% for the week[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 5.16 basis points to 4.148%, while the 2-year yield rose by 4.42 basis points to 3.606%[3] Inflation and Employment Data - The ADP reported a significant decline in private sector jobs, with an average weekly loss of 11,250 jobs as of October 25[3] - The NFIB small business optimism index for October was recorded at 98.2, slightly below expectations[3] Future Monetary Policy - The new Fed chair appointed by Trump may influence a prolonged period of loose monetary policy, potentially leading to rate cuts exceeding market expectations[4] - Risks include potential inflation spikes if the Fed cuts rates too aggressively or maintains high rates for too long, which could trigger liquidity crises[4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the RMB against the USD, highlighting a stable and slightly appreciating trend due to a weaker USD environment and strong domestic equity market attracting foreign investment [2][4]. Exchange Rate Performance - On November 14, the RMB/USD central parity rate was adjusted up by 40 basis points to 7.0825, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 1000 basis points [4]. - The onshore and offshore RMB also showed slight increases, with onshore RMB at 7.0937 and offshore RMB at 7.0935 as of noon on November 14 [4]. - The overall trend for the USD against the RMB has been a one-sided decline throughout the year, with the USD starting at 7.27 RMB and reaching a low of 7.08532 RMB on September 17 [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB will continue to operate in a strong state in the short term, with potential for moderate appreciation by 2026 [2][7]. - Factors influencing this outlook include the anticipated acceleration of Fed rate cuts and the limited upward space for the USD index due to the impact of US tariff policies [7][9]. - The central bank's policies are expected to provide substantial support for the RMB, ensuring stability in the exchange rate [9]. Market Sentiment - There is a potential for the RMB central parity to test the "7" level, supported by a weak USD and seasonal demand for currency settlement [8]. - Optimistic scenarios suggest that the USD/RMB exchange rate could approach 7.0 by year-end, with a new equilibrium potentially around 6.7 [8][10]. - The RMB is expected to maintain a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with limited risks of rapid appreciation or depreciation [8].

Core Insights - China was once the global center for cryptocurrency, controlling 80% of Bitcoin production and 85% of trading volume, but has now been overtaken by the U.S. following the "9.24 ban" which classified cryptocurrency mining as an "eliminated industry" [1][35][36] - The U.S. is promoting "green mining" by utilizing wasted energy as a strategic asset, positioning itself as the new leader in the cryptocurrency space [1][10] Group 1: Bitcoin as an Energy Resource - Bitcoin mining is often criticized for wasting energy, with the energy required to mine one Bitcoin equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of about 80 American households [4][5] - Both the U.S. and China experience significant amounts of wasted electricity annually, with China alone discarding 5.59 billion kilowatt-hours of wind and solar energy in 2024 [8] - In the U.S., 19% of wasted electricity is projected to be consumed by mining operations by 2025, resulting in a reduction of 1.3 million tons of CO₂ emissions [11] Group 2: U.S. Strategic Initiatives - The U.S. has introduced the "FLARE Act" to utilize associated gas from oil extraction for powering mining operations, effectively reducing pollution while mining [16][17] - The merger of Hut8 and the Trump family's "American Data Center Company" to form "American Bitcoin Company" highlights the political and financial interests in the mining sector [21][22] - The Trump administration has positioned Bitcoin alongside gold and oil, promoting it as a tool for economic stability and risk hedging [27][28] Group 3: China's Potential Strategies - Experts suggest that China could convert its wasted electricity into Bitcoin as a form of energy reserve, adopting a model similar to Texas's "solar + storage + mining" approach [40] - Establishing a digital RMB stablecoin and enhancing cross-border settlements could help China regain its footing in the cryptocurrency market [41][42] - Accelerating the production of advanced chips domestically to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers like TSMC is crucial for China's competitiveness in the mining hardware sector [45][46] Group 4: The Broader Implications - The CEO of Core Scientific emphasizes that the U.S. aims to "weaponize" Bitcoin by controlling energy through mining operations [48] - China's ability to convert wasted electricity into computational power, combined with a stablecoin strategy, could reshape the balance of power in the global economy [49][51] - The next decade will see Bitcoin mining evolve beyond a technical competition to a significant shift in civilizational dynamics [52]

Core Viewpoint - Renowned analyst Stephen Jen maintains a bearish outlook on the US dollar, believing that its recent rebound is unlikely to last and that the dollar will continue to decline [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Outlook - According to Jen's estimates, the dollar index may decline by an additional 13.5% during Trump's remaining presidential term [3]. - As of 2025, the dollar index is projected to have fallen approximately 7% from the beginning of the year, potentially making 2025 the worst year for the dollar in nearly eight years [3]. - The dollar's weakness this year is primarily attributed to the erratic trade policies of the Trump administration and strong market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - A report from ADP indicates a noticeable slowdown in the US labor market, with job growth falling short of expectations, which contributed to a slight decline in the Bloomberg dollar spot index [3]. - The International Monetary Fund forecasts that US GDP growth will slow from 2.8% last year to 2% by 2025, while the Eurozone's economic growth is expected to rise from 0.9% in 2024 to 1.2% [3]. Group 3: Policy Implications - Jen emphasizes that the Trump administration's efforts to revitalize US manufacturing align with a weaker dollar, as it would lower export costs and enhance competitiveness in global markets [3]. Group 4: Alternative Assets - The market's aversion to the dollar and other major reserve currencies is increasing, driving prices of alternative assets like gold to historical highs [4]. - Jen believes that as the dollar continues its downward trend, the preference for safe-haven assets and non-sovereign currency assets will strengthen, sustaining the upward trend in gold prices [4].