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何时降息?美联储内部分歧愈演愈烈!
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 11:47
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts have intensified, with mixed signals from officials about the timing and necessity of potential rate cuts in July, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed officials Bowman and Waller have indicated that a rate cut could be considered as early as July, citing concerns over a weakening labor market and the need to support economic growth [2][3]. - Waller believes that the labor market's weakness may justify a July rate cut, while Bowman supports a cut if inflation continues to decline [2][3]. - Other officials, such as Barr and Williams, express caution, highlighting the potential for tariffs to exert upward pressure on inflation and suggesting that the Fed should wait for further economic developments before acting [3][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Economic data shows that inflation has remained moderate, but there are concerns that core prices may rebound in the second half of the year, alongside a slight increase in unemployment rates [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that significant triggers for a rate cut could include rapid deterioration in consumer and employment data, as well as risks in corporate bonds [5][6]. - The economic growth forecast for the U.S. is projected to slow to around 1% this year, with inflation expected to rise to 3% [11][12]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - Market expectations for a July rate cut are polarized, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a forecast for two cuts this year, while Morgan Stanley has reduced its forecast to one cut due to tariff risks [14]. - The potential impact of tariffs on GDP growth and inflation is significant, with estimates suggesting a 2.2% decline in GDP growth by 2025 if tariffs are fully implemented [14]. - The ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed may complicate the decision-making process, forcing the Fed into a challenging position regarding rate cuts and inflation management [6][14].
6月FOMC预览:联储仍有等待的空间-250617
HTSC· 2025-06-17 09:04
证券研究报告 虽然中东地缘政治冲突推高油价,但联储主要关注国内就业市场和通胀走 势,预计 6 月会议大概率维持利率不变。中东地缘政治冲突一度显著推高 原油价格,近期已有所回落,对美国经济和通胀影响较为有限。5月联储会 议以来,美国就业和通胀数据指示联储大概率维持利率不变。一方面,5月 会议以来,中美关税降级,市场对美国经济衰退的担忧下降,美国就业市场 有序降温:4-5月新增非农人数连续超预期,但3个月移动均值整体下行; 周度首申、续中人数也显示就业市场放缓,但未大规模裁员。另一方面,5 月 CPI、PPI 通胀整体不及预期,关税对通胀的推升暂不明显,但高频数据 显示关税仍在推高商品价格,联储仍可能担忧关税带来通胀压力。 宽观 6 月 FOMC 预览:联储仍有等待的空 | 华泰研究 | | | --- | --- | | 2025年6月17日 中国内地 | 动态点评 | 概览:北京时间6月19日(周四)凌晨美联储将公布6月议息会议决定, 虽然中东地缘政治冲突推高油价,但我们预计目前对联储影响有限,联储主 要关注国内就业市场和通胀的走势:就业市场有序降温、关税对通胀传导暂 不明显,因此预计联储6月会议上将维持利率 ...
美国初请失业金人数在暑假期间可能继续上升
news flash· 2025-06-12 12:44
Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. is expected to continue rising during the summer, indicating a gradual cooling of the labor market [1] Labor Market Conditions - The initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 remained steady at 248,000, higher than the market expectation of 240,000 [1] - Some states are allowing non-teaching staff to claim benefits during the long summer break, which may contribute to an increase in claims as the school year ends [1] Employment Growth - Despite economic uncertainties caused by aggressive tariffs under the Trump administration, employers are retaining workers, and there have not been large-scale layoffs [1] - The non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, which is lower than the 193,000 added in the same month last year [1]
美国温和通胀数据背后的隐忧
Group 1 - The new tariff policies announced by the Trump administration have raised concerns among financial institutions and businesses about potential inflation, despite recent CPI reports indicating manageable inflation levels [1][2] - The May CPI report showed a nominal inflation increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, slightly above April's 2.3% [1] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained stable at 2.8%, but was below market expectations of 2.9% [1] Group 2 - The employment market has shown a downward trend, with average monthly job additions from January to May at 123,800, lower than the previous year's average of 179,600 [2][3] - The service sector has been the primary source of job growth, while manufacturing and federal government sectors have seen job losses [3] Group 3 - The U.S. federal debt has reached $36.97 trillion, with a recent bill increasing the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [3][4] - Investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds is declining, as evidenced by a high issuance rate of 5.047% for 30-year bonds in May, indicating increased risk perception [4] Group 4 - The recent surge in cryptocurrency prices and the depreciation of the dollar suggest a growing distrust in U.S. fiscal policy and the dollar's stability [5] - The impact of tariff policies on the global supply chain is significant, with reduced cargo volumes at several ports and rising production costs affecting economic growth [5][6] Group 5 - The stock market has returned to previous levels, but there are concerns about whether inflated stock prices can be supported by upcoming earnings reports [6] - The concentration of market value in the top ten stocks of the S&P 500, which account for 40% of the index, poses a serious risk to market stability [6]
就业韧性,令美联储仍可“按兵不动”——5月美国非农就业数据点评
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-08 00:20
Employment Data Summary - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the forecast of 126,000, while the previous month's figure was revised down to 147,000[4] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a slight increase of 0.06 percentage points month-over-month[6] - Job growth in the goods sector declined, with mining, construction, and manufacturing losing 3,000, 3,000, and 13,000 jobs respectively, while the service sector added 145,000 jobs[6] Wage and Inflation Insights - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth remained at 3.9%, above the forecast of 3.7%[6] - Core service inflation pressures are rising, indicating potential inflation risks in the economy[27] Federal Reserve Outlook - The resilience in employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve can afford to maintain its current monetary policy stance without immediate rate cuts[6] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of interest rate cuts in June 2025, with the market pricing in a 99.9% chance of no rate change[26] Economic Risks - There is a risk of inflation exceeding expectations, particularly due to the impact of tariffs and the potential for a rebound in inflation rates, which could complicate future monetary policy decisions[27]
就业降温趋势不变——5月美国非农数据解读
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-06-07 13:25
Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000, continuing a downward trend from previous months[2] - The combined downward revision for March and April was 95,000, indicating a potential overestimation of current employment levels[2][5] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%[2][10] Sector Analysis - Job growth in May was primarily driven by the service sector, which added 145,000 jobs, while government employment decreased by 22,000[8] - Manufacturing jobs saw a decline of 13,000, influenced by tariff policies[2][8] - The federal government has reduced employment by 59,000 since January, reflecting ongoing layoffs[5][8] Wage and Hour Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month, maintaining a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9%[13] - The average workweek remained steady at 34.3 hours, suggesting stable wage growth may support consumer spending[13] Market Expectations - Following the release of the May non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have slightly adjusted to two potential cuts within the year, with the earliest possible in September[21] - Despite the overall stability in unemployment rates, the declining labor force participation and continuous downward revisions in employment data suggest a cooling job market[21] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected inflation increases, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and a downturn in the U.S. economy[25][26]
就业降温趋势不变——5月美国非农数据解读【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-06-07 06:11
报 告 正 文 就业前值再下修。 5月新增非农就业人数下降至13.9万人,同时3月和4月合计下修9.5万人。今年以来,新增非农就业人数持续下调,或意味着 当前就业水平存在一 定程度的高估。分行业来看,新增就业主要来源从政府转向服务业。 5月服务业新增就业较上月提升,政府裁员影响仍在持续显现,5月联邦政府就业减少2.2万 人,自1月以来已减少5.9万人。而制造业更容易受到关税政策的影响,新增就业较上月减少1.3万人。 劳动参与率下降。 5月失业率维持在4.2%,不过,劳动参与率下降0.2个百分点至62.4%,同时25-54岁黄金年龄群体的劳动参与率也有下行,永久退出劳动力市场的 人增加。6月初纽约联储报告显示,关税正在推高企业定价并影响招聘决策。此外,随着联邦政府削减开支,未来或减少对承包商、大学等工作岗位的需求。整体 来看,就业降温趋势不变。 新增非农就业放 缓 。 5月新增非农就业人数降至13.9万人,较上月延续减少。从长期趋势来看,新增就业人数基本走平,就业市场仍然保持较好势头。不过,3月 和4月新增非农就业人数均有下调,较上次报告合计下修9.5万人。年初以来,就业人数前值不断下修,意味着当前就业水平或被 ...
美国就业市场暗藏隐忧 专家警告增长动能或难持续
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 23:30
Group 1 - The U.S. job market remains stable, but there are emerging cracks that could pose significant challenges in the coming months [1] - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, slightly above market expectations but below April's 147,000 [1] - The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with the underemployment rate remaining at 7.8% [1] Group 2 - Job growth is primarily driven by the healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors, but these industries face potential growth limitations due to proposed policy changes [2] - The proposed spending bill includes a $700 billion cut to federal Medicaid spending and increased costs for ACA enrollment, which could severely impact the healthcare sector that has contributed about 30% of new jobs over the past three years [2] - The leisure and hospitality sector may also be affected by new tariff policies, potentially leading to reduced consumer spending and job impacts [2] Group 3 - Job seekers' confidence is declining, with about 40% of job seekers lacking confidence in the current job market, and nearly one-third expecting fewer job opportunities in the next six months [2] - There is a growing disparity in the job market, where those already employed are faring better than new job seekers, particularly recent graduates [3] - Knowledge-based job growth in sectors like finance, marketing, and software development is weak, while professional and business services are cutting positions [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book indicates a contraction in overall economic activity, with businesses and households becoming increasingly cautious in their decision-making [3] - Recruitment levels are stable, but low employee turnover suggests that companies remain cautious about adding new positions [3]
深夜,利好!全线大涨!
券商中国· 2025-06-06 15:46
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. non-farm payroll report for May shows an increase of 139,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, which alleviates concerns about a significant slowdown in the labor market [1][2][10] - The unemployment rate for May stands at 4.2%, matching market expectations and remaining unchanged from the previous month [3][15] - The report indicates a continued upward trend in employment in healthcare, leisure, hospitality, and social assistance sectors, while manufacturing jobs decreased by 8,000, marking the largest drop of the year [7][14] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing expectations, with the average hourly wage reaching $36.24 [8][14] - Following the release of the non-farm data, the market reduced bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of three or more cuts dropping from 36% to 25% [1][11] - The report has led to a significant rise in the U.S. dollar index, which increased by 0.51% [12]
【环球财经】美国初请失业金人数升至八个月新高
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-05 14:12
Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly increased to 247,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000, marking the highest level since October 2024 [1] - The four-week average of initial jobless claims rose to 235,000, indicating a prolonged reemployment period for unemployed individuals [1] - Employers announced 93,816 layoffs in May, a 12% decrease from April but a 47% increase compared to the same month last year, reflecting economic pressures on companies [1] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm labor productivity in Q1 decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, a larger decline than the previously reported 0.8%, marking the first decline since Q2 2022 [2] - Unit labor costs rose by 6.6% year-on-year in Q1, higher than the previously reported 5.7%, indicating increased labor costs for businesses [2] - Economic uncertainty due to tariffs is causing companies in sectors like airlines, retail, and automotive to withdraw or not issue financial guidance for 2025 [2]