Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first rate cut of the year and indicating two more cuts may follow this year [1][3] - The new target range for the federal funds rate is now set at 4.0% to 4.25%, following a total of 100 basis points cut in the previous year [1] - Recent data shows a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with a decrease in new job creation and increasing risks to employment [1][4] Group 2 - Analysts note that the 25 basis point cut aligns with market expectations, reflecting the Fed's need to balance employment pressures and persistent inflation [3][6] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with significant downward revisions to non-farm employment data, raising concerns about economic slowdown [4][6] - Inflation remains above the 2% target, complicating the Fed's monetary policy decisions [4][6] Group 3 - The recent interest rate cut has diminished the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated assets, leading to a rise in international gold prices [8] - The total U.S. national debt surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about the scale and growth of U.S. debt [10] - There has been a significant inflow of capital into emerging markets, with net inflows reaching $256.08 billion from January to August, a 35% increase year-on-year [10] Group 4 - The World Gold Council reports that 95% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, indicating a shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar [12] - Central banks are increasing gold reserves due to declining trust in the dollar, driven by high U.S. debt levels and a restructuring of global order [14]

Job Market Overview - The US job market is experiencing significant challenges, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest since October 2021, after remaining between 4% and 4.2% since May 2024 [3] - Economic data revisions indicate a net loss of 13,000 jobs in June 2024, marking the first monthly job loss since December 2020, and nearly a million fewer jobs added than previously reported for the year prior through March 2025 [3] Job Seekers' Experience - Job seekers, particularly those trying to enter the labor market or switch jobs, are facing difficulties, as evidenced by one individual who submitted over 500 applications but only secured two interviews [4] - The share of unemployed Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks reached 25.7% in August, a level not seen since early 2022 [5] Employment Dynamics - Employed individuals are hesitant to leave their current jobs due to the challenging job market, leading to a situation where job applications have become a full-time endeavor for many [5] - The current labor market is characterized as a "no-hire, no-fire" environment, where economic uncertainty is causing companies to refrain from hiring [5]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected employment report released by the U.S. Labor Department has created a dilemma for the Federal Reserve ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, causing anxiety among global investors [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - The core data from the report indicates that the U.S. added only 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 [3]. - The report also revised previous data, notably adjusting June's non-farm employment from an initial 147,000 to -13,000, marking the first negative growth since 2021 [3]. Labor Market Analysis - The current U.S. labor market is characterized by a "distorted balance," reflecting weak supply and demand [6]. - On the demand side, the employment diffusion index stands at 49.6, indicating that more companies are reducing hiring than increasing it, primarily due to high interest rates and previous tariff impacts [7][8]. - On the supply side, the willingness of individuals to seek jobs is also low, with many older workers opting for early retirement and changes in immigration policies reducing the labor force [9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The labor market's supply-demand gap fell to -203,000 in August, the first negative value since May 2021, illustrating the dual weakness in both supply and demand [10]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - The employment data is just the first of several key indicators before the September FOMC meeting, including the initial non-farm adjustment on September 9, the Producer Price Index (PPI) on September 10, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11 [13]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty with two potential scenarios: a "recession trade" if subsequent data shows significant downward revisions and weak inflation, or a "hawkish rate cut" if employment remains weak but inflation stays high [17][20]. - The market's expectation of nearly three rate cuts this year may be overly optimistic, and if the Fed's actions do not meet expectations, both interest rates and the dollar could reverse course [20].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of potential recession, with a significant increase in the proportion of the population considering job availability as difficult [2][5] - The current unemployment rate is rising at a historically slow pace, indicating a rare transition in the labor market from supply constraints to demand constraints [3] - A fragile balance in labor supply and demand is maintained due to simultaneous reductions in labor supply from immigration policies and retirement trends, but this balance is expected to be disrupted soon [4][7] Group 2: Employment Trends - The average monthly job creation needed to maintain the current unemployment rate is estimated to be between 150,000 and 180,000, while the recent average has dropped to 120,000 [5] - The labor market is sensitive to changes in employment demand, with a risk of rapid unemployment rate increases if demand continues to decline [7] - The impact of immigration on labor supply is diminishing, and the trend of early retirements is expected to decrease as the peak retirement year of 2025 approaches [7] Group 3: Agricultural Sector - Attention is drawn to the seed and livestock sectors as significant activities in the agricultural industry during the autumn season [8] Group 4: Research and Reports - Various industry reports and discussions are scheduled, including topics on transportation, home appliances, consumer structure changes, real estate cycles, and textiles [9][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent cooling of U.S. employment data has reignited discussions about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with a significant focus on the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut rather than a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [1][2][3] - In August, U.S. non-farm employment increased by only 22,000, and the non-farm employment figures for April 2024 to March 2025 were revised down by 911,000 [1] - The unemployment rate in August was 4.3%, indicating that while the job market is cooling, there is no evidence of large-scale layoffs or imminent recession [1][3] Group 2 - The inflation data, while not obstructing rate cuts, presents a potential rebound risk, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in August [2] - Consumer long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.9% for September, marking the second consecutive month of increase [2] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, and a hasty 50 basis point cut could lead to greater controversy and negatively impact the credibility of the dollar [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a high probability (over 90%) of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, driven by stable inflation data and rising unemployment claims [1][5][6]. Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and slightly up from the previous month's 2.7% [1]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with a 12-month cumulative increase of 3.1%, indicating stable core inflation [4][6]. - Housing costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI, saw a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, the largest increase this year, with a year-on-year rise of 3.6% [4]. Unemployment Claims - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, indicating a cooling labor market and potential for increased layoffs [2][6]. - This rise in unemployment claims exceeds economists' expectations, suggesting a significant slowdown in hiring activity [6][7]. Economic Outlook - Recent economic indicators, including a weak non-farm payroll report showing only 22,000 jobs added in August, point towards a slowing U.S. economy [7]. - The Federal Reserve's focus may shift from inflation control to supporting employment and economic growth due to the dual signs of slowing job growth and rising layoffs [7]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI and unemployment claims data, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the benchmark 10-year yield dropping to 4% [7]. - The stock market responded positively, with major indices reaching historical highs, reflecting investor optimism amid the anticipated rate cut [4]. Political Influence - Former President Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, urging for immediate and significant interest rate cuts, which adds a layer of political pressure on the Fed [8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the moderate inflation trend in the U.S. for August, driven by food and energy prices, while the transmission of tariffs remains slow, indicating that inflation will not hinder the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in the short term [1][2] - The labor market's ongoing weakness and the Fed's assessment of tariff impacts as one-time events suggest that market focus will shift to employment risks, with interest rate cut expectations likely to persist until concerns about the job market ease [2] Inflation Data Summary - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year (previous value 2.7%, expected 2.9%) and 0.4% month-on-month (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%). The core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by food and energy components, while core goods showed a slight recovery, and core services remained stable [1][2] Core Goods and Services Analysis - Core goods saw a month-on-month increase from 0.2% to 0.3%, largely influenced by a rebound in used car prices (from 0.5% to 1.0%). However, the overall core goods growth, excluding used cars, remained flat at 0.17%, indicating slow tariff transmission [1][2] - In the core services sector, rental inflation was the main contributor, but its sustainability is questionable. Air travel and hotel accommodation prices increased due to tourism demand, while other service categories like healthcare and education saw declines [2] Employment and Rate Cut Expectations - The slow transmission of tariffs combined with stable service inflation suggests that inflation will not be a barrier for the Fed's interest rate cuts, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts within the year [2] - The rise in initial jobless claims and the Fed's view of tariff impacts as temporary have shifted market attention to employment risks, with limited market sentiment disturbance from inflation [2]

Inflation and Employment Trends - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and marking the highest level in the past seven months[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year, consistent with previous values[1] - The month-on-month CPI adjusted for seasonal factors rose by 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3%[1] Employment Data and Market Reactions - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly surged to 263,000, the highest level since June 2023, indicating significant employment risks[3] - Following the CPI release, the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve increased to 90% for September, October, and December[3] - Major U.S. stock indices rose post-CPI announcement, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.9%, 0.7%, and 1.4% respectively[3] Core Inflation Components - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, while energy prices increased by 0.7%, driven by a notable rise in gasoline prices[2] - Core goods prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with clothing, new cars, and used cars showing rebounds[2] - "Super core inflation," excluding food, energy, and housing, was reported at 0.12% month-on-month, consistent with previous months[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that employment risks outweigh inflation risks, leading to expectations of rate cuts in the near term[4] - Future rate decisions will depend on whether employment data stabilizes and the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair[4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent CPI data for August, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligns with Wall Street expectations and serves as a significant indicator for the Federal Reserve's decision on potential interest rate cuts [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The CPI data release has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in U.S. stock indices, with the Nasdaq reaching a new historical high [1]. - The last data obstacle for interest rate cuts has been removed, with a 93.9% probability for a 25 basis point cut in September and an 86.8% probability for a cumulative 50 basis point cut by October [2]. - The combination of the CPI data and recent non-farm employment figures provides strong support for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [4][6]. Group 2: Political Influence - President Trump has been vocal in pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, even publicly criticizing Chairman Powell [4][6]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny as political pressures mount, particularly from the Trump administration [6]. Group 3: Future Risks - There are concerns about the delayed impact of tariffs on prices, which could lead to inflationary pressures in the fourth quarter, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making [8]. - The market is beginning to question the authenticity of short-term data, which may create deeper economic governance issues in the long run [9]. - The decision-making process may hinge on whether to prioritize maintaining data credibility or to adopt unconventional methods to sustain a favorable economic outlook [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].