新华财经北京8月13日电（王菁）债市周三（8月13日）小幅回暖，国债期货全线收涨，银行间现券收益 率回落1BP左右；公开市场单日净回笼200亿元，资金利率延续回升。 机构认为，目前基本面表现未有明显变化，债市长期有支撑。短期主要是受风险偏好回升等压制，需要 继续关注股市表现；至于关税等外部扰动基本符合预期，影响不大。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.10%报118.270，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报108.435，5年 期主力合约涨0.05%报105.745，2年期主力合约涨0.03%报102.368。 银行间主要利率债收益率多数小幅下行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率下行1.25BP至1.961%， 10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率下行0.75BP至1.829%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率下行0.9BP至 1.7185%，50年期国债"25超长特别国债03"收益率下行0.25BP至2.06%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.68%，报472.93点，成交金额1000.41亿元。大元转债、丽岛转债、微芯转债、 荣泰转债、金铜转债涨幅居前，分别涨20.00%、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, highlighting the impact of U.S.-China tariff negotiations and the introduction of new loan policies on market sentiment and investment strategies [3][6][8]. Group 1: Financial Market Conditions - The U.S.-China tariff truce has been extended for another 90 days, contributing to a continued rise in the stock market [6]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 114.6 billion, with a net withdrawal of 46.1 billion due to 160.7 billion reverse repos maturing [3]. - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with stable funding rates; DR001 is around 1.32% and DR007 is around 1.44% [4]. Group 2: Loan Policies and Market Reactions - New policies for interest subsidies on business loans and consumer loans were announced, leading to fluctuations in interest rates, which peaked at 1.7275% after the announcement [6][7]. - There is a notable concern regarding the use of loan funds, with warnings against using borrowed money for investment purposes [7]. Group 3: Employment and Industry Trends - The number of ride-hailing drivers in China has increased from 2.891 million in 2020 to 7.483 million in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 26.8%, while the average daily orders have significantly dropped from 23.3 to 10 [7]. - The article expresses a sentiment of uncertainty regarding career paths in the current economic climate, indicating that traditional job security is diminishing [8].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints On August 8, the capital market showed a stable and slightly loose trend. The bond market oscillated strongly, the convertible bond market continued to rise slightly, and most convertible bond issues increased. Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities generally rose, and yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies also generally increased [1]. Section Summaries 1. Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, turning from a decline to an increase, and remained flat year-on-year. The core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to June, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline remaining the same as in June [3]. - In July, the China Small and Medium - Sized Enterprises Development Index was 89.0, remaining the same as the previous month. Among the sub - indices, the capital index and investment index increased by 0.2 and 0.1 points respectively [4]. - Trust companies are prohibited from conducting trust business that essentially provides financing for a single financing party, which will have a significant impact on non - standard businesses [4]. - Two standard baskets of science and technology innovation bonds were launched for trading, helping to improve the liquidity of science and technology innovation bonds in the inter - bank market [5]. - **International News** - The Trump administration has unexpectedly expanded the list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman to about 10 people, which may ease market concerns about the politicization of the Federal Reserve [6]. - **Commodities** - On August 8, WTI September crude oil futures closed flat at $63.88 per barrel, down about 5.1% for the week. Brent September crude oil futures rose 0.24% to $66.59 per barrel, down about 4.4% for the week. COMEX December gold futures rose about 1.1%, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 2.79% to $2.996 per ounce [7]. 2. Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On August 8, the central bank conducted 122 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 126 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan [9]. - **Capital Interest Rates** - On August 8, the capital market remained stable and slightly loose. DR001 decreased by 0.35bp to 1.312%, and DR007 decreased by 2.64bp to 1.425% [10]. 3. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On August 8, the bond market oscillated strongly. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 0.35bp to 1.6910%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210 remained flat at 1.7900% [12]. - **Bond Tendering** - The 25 - attached Treasury Bond 07 (Continued 3) with a term of 0.74 years had an issue size of 126 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.6052%, a full - field multiple of 3.38, and a marginal multiple of 6.22. The 25 - ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 05 (Continued 2) with a 30 - year term had an issue size of 82 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.9576%, a full - field multiple of 3.6, and a marginal multiple of 1.76 [14]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On August 8, the trading price of one urban investment bond, "H8 Longkong 05", deviated by more than 10%, falling by more than 60% [14]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Three bonds of Sunac Real Estate, such as "H Sunac 07", will resume trading on August 11, and a total of 3.3 billion yuan of bonds have been cancelled [15]. - The bond "H22 Futong 1" of Futong Group, originally due on August 8, has been given a 20 - day grace period by bondholders [15]. - Due to a bond trading dispute with Junkang Life Insurance, the equity of 9 companies held by Fanhai Holdings has been frozen [15]. - Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group decided to re - issue the "25 Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group SCP003 (Science and Technology Innovation Bond)" at an appropriate time due to market fluctuations [15]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On August 8, the three major A - share indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index fell 0.12%, 0.26%, and 0.38% respectively, with a full - day trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan [17]. - The main convertible bond market indices closed up. The China Bond Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.15% respectively, with a trading volume of 86.236 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.605 billion yuan from the previous trading day [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On August 8, Changhong Convertible Bond, Leizhi Convertible Bond, Huayang Convertible Bond, Kairun Convertible Bond, and Huahai Convertible Bond announced that the board of directors proposed to lower the conversion price [24]. - On August 8, Xince Convertible Bond and Longhua Convertible Bond announced early redemption, and Tianrun Convertible Bond and Gaoce Convertible Bond announced that they were about to trigger the early redemption condition [24]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On August 8, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities generally rose. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds rose 4bp to 3.76% and 4.27% respectively [21]. - The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds remained unchanged at 51bp, and the yield spread between 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasury bonds narrowed by 1bp to 101bp [22]. - The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 4bp to 2.39% [23]. - **European Bond Market** - On August 8, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally rose. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 4bp to 2.69%, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose 5bp, 5bp, 6bp, and 6bp respectively [25]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on August 8, the prices of some Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds changed. For example, the price of INDI 4 ½ 11/15/27 rose 5.3%, and the price of GRNLGR 5.9 02/12/25 fell 4.7 - 5.1% [27].

Report Information - Report Title: "Fixed Income Weekly: Have Large Banks Started Buying Long-Term Bonds? - Weekly Report on Bond Market Institutional Behavior (Week 1 of August)" [1] - Report Date: August 10, 2025 [2] - Chief Analyst: Yan Ziqi [3] - Analyst: Hong Ziyan [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The bond market ran smoothly this week, with the 10-year Treasury yield slightly dropping to 1.69%, the funding rate staying around 1.42%, and the 5-year AAA medium - short note yield dropping to 1.91% [3][11] - Large banks continued to buy short - term bonds, and although they bought some long - term bonds, the volume was less than 10 billion yuan, so it's hard to say they have started buying long - term bonds. However, they have bought long - term local government bonds in multiple weeks since June, which may be related to duration balance and return requirements [3][4][12] - Funds further increased their purchases of credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds. With the easing of the funding situation, the bond market leverage ratio climbed, and there is still an opportunity for credit spreads to compress [4][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review - **Yield Curve**: Treasury yields declined overall, with the 1Y yield down 2bp, 3Y down 3bp, 5Y down about 3bp, 7Y down 1bp, 10Y down 2bp, 15Y flat, and 30Y up 1bp. For CDB bonds, short - term yields declined and long - term yields increased, with the 1Y yield changing less than 1bp, 3Y down 1bp, 5Y down 1bp, 7Y changing less than 1bp, 10Y up 2bp, 15Y up 2bp, and 30Y up 1bp [14] - **Term Spread**: Treasury interest spreads rose, and the spreads widened overall; CDB bond interest spreads were stable, and the middle - term spreads widened [15][16][17] 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation - **Leverage Ratio**: It dropped to 107.51%. From August 4th to August 8th, it first decreased and then increased during the week. As of August 8th, it was about 107.51%, down 0.07 pct from last Friday and up 0.24 pct from Monday [21] - **Average Daily Turnover of Pledged Repurchase**: The average daily turnover of pledged repurchase this week was 8.1 trillion yuan, with the average daily overnight proportion at 89.87%. The average overnight turnover was 7.3 trillion yuan, up 1.53 trillion yuan month - on - month, and the overnight trading proportion was up 3.10 pct [27][28] - **Funding Situation**: Bank lending showed a fluctuating upward trend. As of August 8th, large and policy banks' net lending was 5.22 trillion yuan; joint - stock and urban/rural commercial banks' average daily net borrowing was 0.57 trillion yuan, and the net borrowing on August 8th was 0.74 trillion yuan. The net lending of the banking system was 4.47 trillion yuan. DR007 fluctuated upward, and R007 fluctuated downward [31] 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds decreased to 2.81 years (de - leveraged) and 3.12 years (leveraged). On August 8th, the de - leveraged median duration was 2.81 years, down 0.02 years from last Friday; the leveraged median duration was 3.12 years, down 0.06 years from last Friday [45] - **Duration by Bond Fund Type**: The median duration (leveraged) of interest - rate bond funds decreased to 3.92 years, up 0.04 years from last Friday; the median duration (leveraged) of credit bond funds decreased to 2.89 years, down 0.07 years from last Friday. The de - leveraged median duration of interest - rate bond funds was 3.44 years, down 0.03 years from last Friday; the de - leveraged median duration of credit bond funds was 2.65 years, down 0.04 years from last Friday [48] 3.4 Category Strategy Comparison - **Sino - US Yield Spread**: It generally narrowed, with the 1Y narrowing by 8bp, 2Y by 10bp, 3Y by 6bp, 5Y by 9bp, 7Y by 7bp, 10Y by 6bp, and 30Y by 3bp [54] - **Implied Tax Rate**: It generally widened. As of August 8th, the CDB - Treasury spread widened by 2bp for 1Y, 2bp for 3Y, 1bp for 5Y, about 1bp for 7Y, 3bp for 10Y, about 2bp for 15Y, and less than 1bp for 30Y [55] 3.5 Bond Lending Balance Changes - On August 8th, the lending concentration of the active 10 - year Treasury bond increased, while the lending concentration trends of the second - active 10 - year Treasury bond, active 10 - year CDB bond, second - active 10 - year CDB bond, and active 30 - year Treasury bond declined. All institutions showed a decline [59]

Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's OMO net withdrawal this week was CNY 536.5 billion, with an additional CNY 700 billion in 3M reverse repos on Friday[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased to CNY 8.11 trillion, with a peak of CNY 8.4 trillion on Wednesday[4] - The overnight interest rate (DR001) has seen a downward adjustment, with the lower limit dropping to 1.25% from 1.3%[3][20] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market - The 1Y Shibor rate decreased by 0.7 basis points to 1.64%, while the 1-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit secondary rate fell by 1.75 basis points to 1.6175%[4] - The net financing scale of interbank certificates of deposit rose to CNY 192 billion, with state-owned banks contributing CNY 74.4 billion[4] Government Bond Issuance - This week, the actual net payment for government bonds was CNY 370.6 billion, with an expected increase to CNY 410.1 billion next week[22] - Cumulative issuance of new general bonds reached CNY 542.6 billion, while new special bonds totaled CNY 28,179 billion[22] Future Expectations - The central bank is expected to maintain a stable monetary policy, with the lower limit of DR001 projected to decrease to 1.2% by September[21] - The government bond issuance forecast for August and September remains unchanged at CNY 2.5 trillion and CNY 2.1 trillion, respectively[31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is still in a favorable period. The pattern of fundamental factors favoring the bond market remains unchanged, the central bank is expected to continue to support market liquidity, and the bond market should continue to strengthen slightly [2][16] - The performance of credit data in July should be relatively weak, and the tax period is a disturbing factor, but the central bank can keep the capital market in an overall balanced state. After continuous upward movement, the upward momentum of the stock market has weakened, and it is expected to consolidate next week [2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From August 4th to August 10th, treasury bond futures rose slightly. Market sentiment was affected by various factors such as new bond interest taxation news, rumors about bond issuance changes, stock market trends, and central bank liquidity operations. As of August 8th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.370, 105.820, 108.610, and 119.250 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.018, +0.090, +0.160, and +0.160 yuan compared to the previous weekend [1][13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Viewpoint - The fundamental factors favorable to the bond market remain unchanged. The 7 - month financial data to be released next week is expected to be weak. The central bank will continue to support liquidity, and the capital market will be balanced. The difficulty of further increasing market risk appetite next week is relatively high, and the bond market will be less sensitive to the rise of the stock market [16][17] - Strategies include: holding long positions in trading accounts next week, paying close attention to market sentiment changes, holding the strategy of steepening the yield curve, and observing the narrowing of inter - period spreads [18][19] 3.2 Interest - Bearing Bond Weekly Observation 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 62 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 8085.09 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 5958.98 billion yuan. The net financing amount of treasury bonds increased, while that of local government bonds decreased, and that of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [23] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields mostly declined. As of August 8th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.55%, 1.69%, and 1.96% respectively, with changes of - 2.44, - 2.32, - 1.76, and +1.00 bp compared to the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread narrowed, while the 10Y - 5Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened [27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures rose slightly. As of August 8th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.370, 105.820, 108.610, and 119.250 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.018, +0.090, +0.160, and +0.160 yuan compared to the previous weekend. The trading volumes and open interests of different - term treasury bond futures changed to varying degrees [36][39] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious. The capital market was generally loose, and the futures basis generally oscillated within a narrow range. The IRR of the CTD bonds of each variety's main contracts was between 1.4% - 1.8%, and the current certificate of deposit interest rate was between 1.5% - 1.6%, so the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies was relatively limited [43] 3.3.3 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - As of August 8th, the inter - period spreads of the 2509 - 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.066, - 0.055, +0.105, and +0.370 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.024, 0.000, +0.080, and +0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend. Next week, the inter - period spreads are expected to oscillate within a narrow range and narrow slightly [46][47] 3.4 Capital Market Weekly Observation - This week, the central bank conducted 11267 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 16632 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 5365 billion yuan. Capital interest rates such as R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week all declined slightly. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased [51][54][56] 3.5 Overseas Weekly Observation - The US dollar index oscillated weakly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds increased. As of August 8th, the US dollar index fell 0.43% to 98.2670 compared to the previous weekend's close, the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was reported at 4.27%, up 4BP from the previous weekend, and the spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 258.0BP [61] 3.6 Inflation High - Frequency Data Weekly Observation - This week, industrial product prices showed mixed trends. The Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index changed by - 35.19, +75.23, and - 36.18 points respectively compared to the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices also showed mixed trends, with the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits changing by - 0.19, +0.21, and - 0.05 yuan/kg respectively compared to the previous weekend [65] 3.7 Investment Advice - The first and middle ten - days of August are a favorable period for the bond market, and trading accounts can continue to hold long positions next week [18][66]

Core Viewpoint - The market appears chaotic and random on the surface, but it actually follows a significant trend, whether it is rising, falling, or consolidating [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The restaurant and accommodation sector experienced a profit drop of 67% in the first half of 2025 [8] - The central bank conducted a 122 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 126 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan [4] - The interbank funding market showed a slight decline in funding rates, with DR001 around 1.31% and DR007 around 1.43% [5] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market saw a slight increase in long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to approximately 1.685% before closing at 1.691% [7][10] - The issuance of local government bonds was stable, with new issuance rates about 5 basis points higher than the secondary market, aligning with market expectations [8] - The market is anticipating the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data, as there are concerns about rising commodity prices [8]

央行5月28日以利率招标方式开展了20亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.80%，量平价稳，侧面印证 短期流动性较为充裕。业内专家表示，从目前形势看，月末市场资金面无虞，但考虑到政府债加快发行 叠加分红购汇、年中考核等，流动性面临扰动因素增加的局面，未来央行适时降准的概率加大。 资金面延续宽松 自5月第一个工作日起，央行公开市场逆回购操作量已连续18个工作日保持在20亿元的"地量"水平。不 少专家表示，近期公开市场操作资金投放量较小，且央行逆回购余额低于历史同期水平，显示银行体系 流动性处于充裕状态。 值得注意的是，5月是传统的缴税大月，除了正常的月度增值税、所得税、消费税、资源税等税种缴纳 外，还会进行上一年度的所得税汇算清缴，但今年5月税期高峰，市场资金面"几无波澜"，缴税大月的 特征不算明显。 "参考历史经验，5月末至6月初汇算清缴的规模约为8000亿元至10000亿元，其中5月一般略高于6月。企 业所得税汇算清缴的影响可能还会在未来两周有所显现。"信达证券固定收益首席分析师李一爽说。 中邮证券分析师梁伟超表示，5月以来，市场资金面延续宽松，主要体现为市场利率低位运行，同时， 流动性分层现象有所缓解—— ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In July, the bond market oscillated weakly due to factors such as the central bank's protection of the capital market, short - term settlement of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and the "anti - involution" driving the equity and commodity markets. The long - end yield increased more, with the 10Y and 1Y Treasury bond yields rising by 6BP and 4BP respectively [1][8]. - In August, from the fundamental perspective, focus on the possible improvement of CPI and social financing structure, the resilience of exports after the extension of Sino - US tariff exemptions, the marginal changes of PMI in domestic and external demand, and the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the improvement of the prosperity index. Also, observe the possible disturbances of the improvement of key data such as real estate on the fundamentals and expectations [2]. - In terms of supply, the single - month issuance peak of ultra - long special national bonds and the continued high - level use of new special bonds are expected to drive the high supply of government bonds in August. The net supply of government bonds in August may be around 1.4 trillion yuan, which may be the peak in the second half of the year [2]. - Regarding the capital market, there may be phased fluctuations due to the end of the month and the peak of inter - bank certificate of deposit (CD) maturities. After entering August, with the decline of inter - bank CD scale and the central bank's protection, the capital market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The central bank may restart Treasury bond trading, and multiple tools will jointly support the reasonable and abundant liquidity [2]. - From the policy perspective, the Politburo meeting at the end of July was positive but with limited incremental information. The Sino - US tariff negotiation was settled at the end of July, with a 90 - day tariff exemption extension, and the attitude of the US needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - In terms of institutional behavior, institutions still increased their holdings in July. In August, with interest rates likely to decline and fluctuate, focus on the support of large - scale banks for the short - end, the increase in the long - end holdings of rural commercial banks, the recovery of the fund's motivation to increase holdings by extending the duration, and the marginal change in the insurance company's willingness to allocate ultra - long - end bonds [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Oscillated Upward, and the Yield Curve Steepened Bearishly - In July, affected by multiple factors, the bond market oscillated weakly. The long - end yield increased more, with the 10Y and 1Y Treasury bond yields rising by 6BP and 4BP respectively. The term spread widened by 2BP to 32BP [1][8]. - The yield curve of Treasury bonds steepened bearishly in July, with the medium - and long - end yields generally rising more. The implied tax rate of China Development Bank bonds generally increased [9]. - Overseas, US inflation continued to rise slightly, labor data improved, and the Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in July. The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut decreased. The yield of US Treasury bonds rose, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted further [10]. 2. This Month's Outlook and Strategy (1) This Month's Bond Market Outlook: The Capital Market is Likely to Return to Normal, and Supply will Reach a Peak in the Second Half of the Year - **Fundamentals**: For the July macro - data to be released, pay attention to the possible improvement of CPI and social financing structure, the resilience of exports after the extension of tariff exemptions, the marginal changes of PMI, and the impact of real estate data improvement on fundamentals and expectations [2][28]. - **Supply**: The single - month issuance peak of ultra - long special national bonds and the continued high - level use of new special bonds will drive the high supply of government bonds in August. The net supply of government bonds in August is expected to be around 1.4 trillion yuan, which may be the peak in the second half of the year [2][41]. - **Capital Market**: There may be phased fluctuations at the end of the month, but after entering August, with the decline of inter - bank CD scale and the central bank's protection, the capital market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The central bank may restart Treasury bond trading, and multiple tools will jointly support the reasonable and abundant liquidity [2][48]. - **Policy**: The Politburo meeting at the end of July was positive but with limited incremental information. The Sino - US tariff negotiation was settled at the end of July, with a 90 - day tariff exemption extension, and the attitude of the US needs to be continuously monitored [3][61]. - **Institutional Behavior**: Institutions still increased their holdings in July. In August, with interest rates likely to decline and fluctuate, focus on the support of large - scale banks for the short - end, the increase in the long - end holdings of rural commercial banks, the recovery of the fund's motivation to increase holdings by extending the duration, and the marginal change in the insurance company's willingness to allocate ultra - long - end bonds. The adjustment of government bond VAT may also affect institutional allocation logic [3][68]. (2) Bond Market Strategy: Focus on the Balance between Stocks and Bonds, the Bond Market will Oscillate Downward, and Pay Attention to Trading Opportunities - In August, the main points of concern are the return of the capital market to a loose state under the central bank's protection, the shift from the stock - bond seesaw to the balance between stocks and bonds, the peak supply of government bonds due to the acceleration of special bond issuance, and the short - term impact of the change in government bond VAT [74]. - In terms of interest rates, the bond market's capital market in August is likely to return to a stable state under the central bank's protection. The bond market is still in a favorable environment, but the implementation of broad - based monetary policies needs to be awaited. The subsequent market is likely to evolve from the stock - bond seesaw to a balanced state. Short - term bond interest rates may decline marginally. Strategies include maintaining an appropriate duration, focusing on band trading, paying attention to the trading value of old bonds and the allocation value of new bonds, taking profits when yields are low, and increasing allocations when the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rises above 1.75% [76]. 3. Important Economic Calendar for August - The table provides the expected release dates and market expectations of various economic indicators in July and August, including foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2, social financing scale, etc. [78]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening domestic demand is reflected by the July manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations, and the correction in the commodity market pricing this week is favorable for the bond market, with yields of different maturities declining. The potential returns are considerable considering the downward space of 10 - 12bp for the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields and the duration [3][6]. - In terms of fundamentals and monetary policy, the demand side remains weak, and the short - term policy stimulus expectations are retreating. The cooling of the commodity market and the stock market may be beneficial to the bond market due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of the month may be greater, while the situation in the last ten - days needs further observation [6]. - For the second half of the year, policy clues may be the main variable guiding the macro - economic trend. The loose monetary policy will continue, and the bond market can prioritize high - cost - effective varieties [35]. 3. Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - Interest rate bonds: The yield curve has flattened. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp to 1.37%, and the yields of 3 - year and above decreased more significantly. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields decreased by 3.3bp and 3.4bp to 1.71% and 1.92% respectively [12][15]. - Credit bonds: The spreads generally widened. On the implied AA+ urban investment bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 10bp, with the 5 - year yield reaching 2.04%. On the AAA - secondary capital bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 7bp, 14bp, and 14bp respectively [15]. Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - Local bonds: Issued 3372 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of 2360 billion yuan, including 209 billion yuan of new general bonds, 1832 billion yuan of new special bonds (575 billion yuan of special special bonds), 877 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 454 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [20]. - Treasury bonds: Issued 4061 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of 107 billion yuan, including 830 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds [20]. - Policy - financial bonds: Issued 1580 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of - 56 billion yuan [20]. Fund Market Situation - The cross - month capital market remained stable. Before the cross - month, the central bank's large - scale net reverse - repurchase injection made the capital market looser. The overnight interest rate fell below the OMO rate, and the R001 decreased by 19bp to 1.36%. On the cross - month day, the central bank's "unexpected" reduction in roll - over still maintained a balanced capital market [26]. - The overnight and one - week Shibor rates closed at 1.32% and 1.45%, changing by - 5bp and + 3.8bp respectively compared with last week. The overnight and one - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 1.1% and 1.28%, changing by - 43.1bp and - 36.2bp respectively compared with last week [26]. - The yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit mostly declined. The 1 - month AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit decreased by 6.9bp to 1.49%. The weighted issuance period of inter - bank certificates of deposit was compressed to 5.9 months. The average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased from 7.70 trillion yuan last week to 6.72 trillion yuan [29]. China Bond Market Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - The US dollar index has been below 100 for the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The central bank may maintain a loose tone in the second half of the year. This week, the central bank conducted a basically equal - amount roll - over, with a net injection of 69 billion yuan [34]. - In terms of the macro - economic outlook, achieving the 5% annual target is not difficult. Policy clues will be the main variable guiding the macro - economic trend in the second half of the year. The loose monetary policy will continue, and the bond market can prioritize high - cost - effective varieties [35].