Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the overall industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The Fed's internal turmoil is strong, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear, causing precious metals to fluctuate. Gold is under pressure and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term [1]. - The crude oil market is generally in a state of supply surplus, but geopolitical factors bring uncertainties, so it should be treated with an oscillatory view [1]. - The short - end bond market is affected by a slightly tight capital supply, but the overall bond market is affected by multiple factors, and its operation is difficult, with a slightly bullish medium - term trend [3]. - Silver is under short - term pressure due to the US economic environment, but is still bullish in the medium term [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation, and the LH2601 contract is expected to be weak after a brief rebound [4]. - Rapeseed meal has a weak supply - demand pattern and is unlikely to have a trending upward market [5]. - Palm oil has strong support at the lower level in the short term, and low - long operations are recommended [5]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Glass is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - PVC is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, and its price has short - term support [10]. - Natural rubber has a situation where raw material support and demand suppression coexist, and it will oscillate in the short term [10][11]. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed internal disputes over a December rate cut are large, and gold is under pressure, with a medium - term high - level oscillation expected. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index [1]. - **Silver**: US employment pressure is high, and economic downward pressure suppresses the sentiment of going long on silver. The Fed's December rate - cut situation is uncertain, and silver is under short - term pressure but bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the differentiation between gold and silver [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: US oil inventories have increased, and refinery profits have risen. Geopolitical factors such as attacks on Russian refineries and US sanctions have increased market uncertainty. The overall supply surplus situation drives the price down, and it should be treated with an oscillatory view [1]. Bonds - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Money market interest rates have mostly risen, indicating a slightly tight capital supply, which is negative for short - end bonds. However, the economic pressure in the fourth quarter and the central bank's operations are positive for the bond market. The bond market is difficult to operate, with a slightly bullish medium - term trend [3]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The supply of pigs is abundant, the terminal demand is weak, and the LH2601 contract is expected to be weak after a brief rebound. Farmers are advised to hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of imported rapeseed meal is high, and domestic aquatic product demand is weak. It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [5]. - **Palm Oil**: China's October palm oil imports decreased year - on - year. November supply has increased significantly, but Indian demand expectations have increased. It has strong support at the lower level in the short term, and low - long operations are recommended [5]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The production and port inventory of methanol are at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Glass**: The average price of float glass has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the downstream orders are weak. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - **PVC**: The production of PVC is expected to remain high, the profit is poor, the domestic demand is stable, and the social inventory is expected to increase. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **PTA**: In November, the supply of PTA has decreased due to maintenance, and the downstream polyester demand is expected to remain high. The supply - demand situation has improved, and the price has short - term support [10]. Rubber - **Natural Rubber**: Thai raw material prices have changed, and China's rubber tire production and export data show a mixed situation. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is weak. It will oscillate in the short term [10][11].

新华财经北京11月18日电（王春霞）人民银行18日开展4075亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平；鉴于当日有4038亿元7天期逆回购到 期，公开市场实现净投放37亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种小幅上涨。具体来看，隔夜Shibor上涨1.70BP，报1.5250%；7天Shibor上涨0.40BP，报1.5180%；14天Shibor持 平，报1.5500%。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（11月18日） | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中 | O/N | 1.5250 | 1.70 | | 1 | 1W | 1.5180 | 0.40 | | 1 | 2W | 1.5500 | 0.00 | | 1 | 1M | 1.5200 | 0.00 | | 1 | 3M | 1.5800 | 0.00 | | 1 | 6M | 1.6200 | 0.00 | | 中 | 9M | 1.6400 | 0.00 | | | 1Y | 1.6500 | 0.00 | 来源：全国银行间同业拆借中心 货币市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to show strength, with government bond futures rising across the board, indicating a stable demand for long-term bonds over short-term ones [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.06% at 116.53, the 10-year contract up 0.03% at 108.5, the 5-year contract up 0.03% at 105.92, and the 2-year contract up 0.01% at 102.49 [2]. - The interbank market showed mixed performance in major interest rate bonds, with the 30-year government bond yield down 0.35 basis points to 2.136% and the 10-year policy bank bond yield down 0.2 basis points to 1.866% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield up 0.63 basis points to 3.608% and the 10-year yield down 0.78 basis points to 4.137% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields saw a rise in the long-term segment, with the 10-year yield up 1.7 basis points to 1.746% [4]. Primary Market - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had successful bids with yields of 1.5240% for 2-year, 1.7081% for 5-year, and 1.8859% for 10-year bonds, indicating strong demand with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.82, 3.16, and 3.7 respectively [5]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 4075 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 37 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 1.7 basis points to 1.525% [6]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the banking system's liabilities are relatively stable, and the reliance on bond allocation through the financial market remains high, providing solid support for the bond market [7]. - Huatai Securities highlighted that the tightening supply of convertible bonds has led to increased valuations, suggesting a shift towards quality new bonds or underlying stocks for investors [8].

金融研究 2025年11月18日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 17 日，A 股四大股指有所调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.46%，报收 3972.03 点；深成 指下跌 0.11%，报收 13202 点；创业板指下跌 0.2%，报收 3105.2 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.53%， 报收 1354.04 点。市场成交 19,303 亿元，较前日减少 501 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+1.67%)， 国防军工(+1.59%)，煤炭(+1.32%)涨幅居前；医药生物(-1.73%)，银行(-1.31%)，非银金融(-1.11%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,582/138/2,724。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-47、-121、-3、171 亿元，分别变动+332、+120、-133、-318 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 128.68、91.95、16.65 与 2.87 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-17.1%、-12.71%、-3.62%与-0.95%，三年期历 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, is experiencing significant downward pressure, erasing gains made earlier in the year due to a combination of macroeconomic expectations, liquidity issues, and trading sentiment [1][5][8]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price fell to a low of $93,714, marking a nearly 2% decline in 24 hours and erasing all gains for the year [1]. - As of the latest report, Bitcoin rebounded slightly to $95,734.9, while Ethereum was priced at $3,199.91 [2][3]. - Major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, have seen significant declines, with Ethereum's 7-day drop reaching 11.38% [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The decline is attributed to multiple pressures, including fluctuating macroeconomic expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies and a tightening liquidity environment [5][6]. - Institutional investors have been redeeming their holdings, leading to a net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs since September [5]. - High leverage levels in the market have made it more susceptible to liquidity shocks, with over 230,000 accounts liquidated in a recent 24-hour period, totaling over $1 billion [7]. Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable decrease in risk appetite among investors, influenced by recent losses in the market and a cautious trading environment [8]. - Historical patterns of Bitcoin's price volatility are causing some investors to preemptively reduce their positions to lock in profits [7][8]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term narrative for Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks remains intact, but it requires time to mature as an asset class [9]. - Key variables influencing future market direction include the development of ETF channels, clarity in global regulatory environments, and sustained demand in on-chain finance and cross-border payments [9]. - Analysts suggest that while recent declines may correct excessive risk-taking and valuation discrepancies, the structural vulnerabilities of the cryptocurrency market compared to traditional financial assets still pose significant risks [9].

近日，央行公布2025年10月金融统计数据报告，数据显示，10月居民存款减少1.34万亿元，同比少增7700亿元；非银存款增加1.85万亿元，同比多增7700亿 元。 截至收盘，中证A500指数下跌0.4%，中证A100指数下跌0.6%，中证A50指数下跌1.0%。 中国银河证券表示，资金面向好的逻辑仍有望延续，随着后续政策落地节奏进一步明确，物价回升预期下反内卷板块逻辑明确，科技主线产业趋势与业绩进 入验证阶段，A股市场中长期向好趋势不改。 每日经济新闻 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明 示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Market Overview - The bond market showed a strong consolidation on November 17, with all major government bond futures closing higher, and interbank bond yields declining by approximately 0.5-1 basis points [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan in the open market, with funding rates collectively rising due to tax period disturbances [1][6] Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.33% to 116.45, the 10-year main contract increased by 0.09% to 108.485, the 5-year main contract went up by 0.05% to 105.905, and the 2-year main contract gained 0.03% to 102.48 [2] Yield Movements - Major interbank bond yields generally declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 0.35 basis points to 1.8015%, and the 30-year government bond yield decreasing by 1 basis point to 2.1385% [2] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.71 basis points to 4.146% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 3 basis points to 1.73% [4] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields also saw increases, with French yields up by 4.3 basis points to 3.457% [4] Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had successful bids with yields of 1.3849% for 1.074 years, 1.6197% for 3 years, and 1.7076% for 5 years, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.6, 7.53, and 1.24 respectively [5] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [6] Institutional Insights - Institutions suggest that the current market conditions may lead to continued downward pressure on yields due to insufficient financing demand and ongoing asset scarcity, with a focus on the allocation opportunities towards the end of the year and early next year [1][7] - The tightening supply of convertible bonds has led to increased valuations, with recommendations for investors to focus on mid-to-large cap, relatively low-priced securities while taking profits on high-priced, overvalued stocks [8]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 212.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on November 14, with a net injection of 71.1 billion yuan for the day [1] - A total of 626.2 billion yuan was injected into the market during the week [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains balanced, but overnight repurchase rates have risen by over 5 basis points to around 1.37% as the tax period approaches [3] - The central bank's continuous net injections have effectively stabilized market sentiment, indicating a maintained liquidity stance [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is at 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds showed mixed movements, with specific rates for government bonds and policy bank bonds varying [9] - The 30-year main contract for government bonds rose by 0.03%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts remained unchanged [12] Group 5: Economic Indicators - China's industrial output grew by 4.9% year-on-year in October, down from 6.5% previously, while retail sales increased by 2.9% [13] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year in the first ten months, with private investment down by 4.5% [13] Group 6: Real Estate Market - In October, housing prices in major cities showed a decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a 0.3% drop in new home prices [14] Group 7: Corporate Actions - Country Garden announced plans for overseas debt restructuring, aiming to reduce over $11 billion in debt with sufficient creditor support [15] Group 8: Regulatory Developments - The People's Bank of China released new regulations for interbank market brokerage services, effective January 1, 2026, focusing on enhancing internal controls and service agreements [15]

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 195.5 billion yuan for 7 days at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 130 billion yuan after accounting for 65.5 billion yuan maturing that day [3][4]. Funding Conditions - The interbank market saw a balanced improvement in funding conditions, with overnight repurchase rates dropping by 9 basis points to around 1.41%. The overnight quotes on the anonymous X-repo system also fell to 1.43% [5][6]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks remained stable at approximately 1.63% [7]. Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed slight increases: 30-year contracts rose by 0.09%, 10-year by 0.02%, 5-year by 0.03%, and 2-year by 0.01% [11]. Government Procurement - The Ministry of Finance announced that the national government procurement scale for 2024 is projected to be 3,375.043 billion yuan, with goods, engineering, and services accounting for 23.54%, 41.01%, and 35.45% respectively [12]. Global Macro Developments - Japan's Prime Minister is set to propose a significant economic stimulus plan, indicating potential substantial spending to support the economy [14]. - South Korea's M2 money supply reached 4,430.5 trillion won (approximately 3.02 trillion USD) in September, marking a 0.7% month-on-month increase and an 8.5% year-on-year surge [14]. Bond Issuance Events - The China Development Bank plans to issue up to 19 billion yuan in three phases of fixed-rate bonds on November 13 [16]. - The Japanese Ministry of Finance will auction 800 billion yen of 20-year government bonds on November 19 [16]. Negative Events in Bond Market - Several companies, including Aerospace Hongtu and Zhejiang Yitian, have seen downgrades in their credit ratings or outlooks, indicating potential risks in the bond market [17]. Non-Standard Asset Risks - Various non-standard assets have been flagged for risk, including trust plans and private equity funds, highlighting ongoing concerns in the investment landscape [18].

Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The overall bond prices experienced fluctuations, with different maturities showing varied performance. As of November 11, TL main contract increased by 0.23%, T main contract remained flat, TF main contract rose by 0.01%, and TS main contract decreased by 0.01% [1] Group 2: Foreign Trade and Export Growth - China's export value decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while import value increased by 1.0%, reflecting a decline of 9.4 and 6.4 percentage points compared to September. The negative export growth is attributed to a high base from the previous year and renewed trade disputes affecting certain goods [2] Group 3: Inflation Indicators - In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month, while core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, outperforming expectations. The main drivers for the CPI increase were narrowing declines in food prices and rising prices of precious metal jewelry [3] - The PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first month-on-month increase this year, indicating a positive signal. Upstream production material prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month, while downstream consumer goods prices remained stable [3] Group 4: Government Bond Financing - The net financing scale of government bonds exceeded 410 billion yuan this week, leading to a tightening of market liquidity. As of November 10, the rates for DR001 and DR007 rose to 1.4842% and 1.4993%, respectively, reflecting an increase of 15.21 and 8.63 basis points since November 7 [4] Group 5: Contract Roll-over Dynamics - As of November 10, the roll-over progress for TS, TF, T, and TL contracts were 19.6%, 19.4%, 20.3%, and 28.6%, respectively. The larger short positions in various contracts and the generally high valuations for the next season's contracts may accelerate the roll-over speed, potentially widening the inter-temporal price spread [5]