Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 135 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40% on January 5, with a total bid and awarded amount of 135 billion yuan. On the same day, 482.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan [1]. Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains generally loose, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate rising over 2 basis points to 1.26%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system are around 1.25%, with supply exceeding 100 billion yuan. Non-bank institutions are financing overnight with credit bonds at rates of 1.42%-1.43%. Seasonal patterns are expected to keep overnight rates low, but tax periods and credit issuance may soon exert tightening pressure. The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is 3.87% [3]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among national and major joint-stock banks is around 1.62%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7]. Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures show a 0.05% drop in the 30-year main contract, a 0.03% increase in the 10-year main contract, and a 0.02% drop in the 5-year main contract. The 2-year main contract also fell by 0.03% [12]. Key News - The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged over 100 billion yuan in funding for the Yangtze River protection project. The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments released a notice to promote green consumption through various measures, including increasing the supply of green agricultural products and encouraging the purchase of certified green products [13]. - The issuance of local government bonds is set to begin in 2026, with Shandong Province leading by issuing 72.381 billion yuan [13]. - The interbank trading association has issued a notice to improve the preservation of bond trading records, highlighting issues with internal controls and compliance among some institutions [13]. Global Macro - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that if wages, growth, and inflation continue to meet expectations, the central bank will proceed with interest rate hikes. The Japanese economy remains resilient, with moderate increases in wages and prices anticipated [15]. - The Bank of Thailand's monetary policy committee is closely monitoring economic and financial risks, considering further easing of monetary policy to support economic recovery, with an expected growth rate of 2.2% for Thailand in 2025 [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that incremental capital entering the market will not be the main factor for the market to reach a new level in 2026, with the biggest expectation gap coming from the balance between external and internal demand [1] - The trend of imposing tariffs externally and subsidizing domestic demand is expected to be a major direction, with this year being an important starting point [1] - The market is likely to experience a higher probability of upward fluctuations at the beginning of the year, considering the relatively low capital enthusiasm at the end of last year [1] Group 2 - The A-share cross-year market trend is unfolding as expected, with the liquidity and exchange rate environment at the beginning of this year being significantly better than the previous two years [1] - The strong renminbi exchange rate and favorable external environment may lead to a "New Year Red" market for A-shares after the New Year [1] - Multiple positive factors, including renminbi appreciation, concentrated benefits in the technology sector, improved macroeconomic expectations, and positive signals in the capital market, are expected to drive the A-share cross-year market [1] Group 3 - On January 5, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 4000 points after 34 trading days, with a rise of 0.85% to 4002.40 points [2] - Insurance stocks led the gains, while sectors such as brain-computer interfaces and semiconductors were active [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【国债周报（TL&T&TF&TS)】 债期超长端弱势不改 樊梦真 从业资格证号：F3035483 投资咨询证号 ：Z0014706 报告日期：2026-1-5 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 主要观点 01 PART ONE 主要观点 周度行情一览 • 上周国债期货市场小幅走弱。市场交易主线围绕跨年资金面博弈与基本面预期分化展开。一方面，12月制造业PMI站上荣枯线一度引发债市调整，但随后市场意 识到经济修复的持续性仍需观察，尤其是11月工业企业利润同比降幅扩大至13.1%的数据，强化了基本面弱复苏的预期。另一方面，跨年资金仍有波澜，年前几 个交易日，资金价格大幅波动走高，尤其是31日。政策层面，财政部与发改委联合下达首批625亿元消费品以旧换新补贴资金，但补贴范围收窄、比例下调，市 场解读为财政政策发力更侧重精准性，而非大规模刺激，对债市供给冲击的担忧有所缓解。此外，央行四季度货币政策委员 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 365 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on January 4, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, and the full bid amount was accepted [1] - On the same day, 4,701 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4,336 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The scale of the central bank's reverse repurchase operations significantly decreased on the first trading day of 2026, indicating a relaxed interbank market liquidity [3] - After the year-end, the weighted average rate for overnight repos dropped by over 8 basis points to around 1.25% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 3.87% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market is around 1.625% [7] Group 4: Key News and Information - The State Council's report on urban-rural integration development suggests a significant reduction or elimination of household registration restrictions in most Chinese cities [13] - The central bank is set to have 13,236 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week, with specific amounts maturing from Monday to Wednesday [13] Group 5: Global Macro - The U.S. has reportedly captured Venezuelan President Maduro, leading to international condemnation and calls for adherence to international law [15] Group 6: Bond Market Events - Vanke will hold a bondholder meeting on January 16, 2026, to discuss adjustments to the repayment arrangements [17] - E-House Holdings disclosed progress on offshore debt restructuring, aiming for completion by 2026 [17] - The Trading Association issued a severe warning to Yunnan Trust for facilitating unauthorized trading in the interbank bond market [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the weakening of the US dollar and the improvement of risk appetite led to a steeper curve overseas, while in China, loose funds drove the yield curve to steepen. The bond market remained volatile due to the supply - demand contradiction at the long end [2]. - In 2026, the PPI is facing three positive factors: the tail - lifting factor, imported inflation, and the continued effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. Under the neutral scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. The mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors to significantly affect the bond market [3][55]. - Currently, the bond market is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. There are some structural opportunities, such as the follow - up rise opportunity of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression opportunity of credit spreads [4]. Summary by Directory PART1: December 2025 - Curve Steepening Driven by Overseas and Domestic Factors Overseas - In December 2025, the Fed announced reserve management - style purchases (RMP) and continued to cut interest rates. The US dollar index weakened, liquidity improved, the US stock market rose, and risk appetite recovered. The US bond yield curve steepened due to factors like Fed's short - term bond purchase, market concerns about Fed independence, and rising commodity prices. Precious and industrial metals performed well, with copper benefiting from AI demand and gold and silver supported by geopolitical events [10][16]. Domestic - In November 2025, the domestic economic fundamentals showed a divergence between quantity and price, and in December, both supply and demand declined. The capital market was generally loose, and the overnight interest rate hit a new low for the year. The bond market remained volatile due to the long - end supply - demand contradiction, and the yield curve steepened [17][23]. - In terms of institutional behavior, large banks and insurance companies, as allocation players, increased their bond - buying in the secondary market in December. Large banks added some policy - related financial bonds and focused on 5 - 7 - year varieties. Insurance companies mainly added long - term treasury bonds. Trading players became conservative. Rural commercial banks mainly invested in certificates of deposit, funds reduced duration and mainly sold long - term treasury bonds, and wealth management products seasonally reduced bond allocation and slightly increased credit bond allocation [26][35][47]. PART2: How the 2026 Re - inflation Narrative May Affect the Bond Market 2026 PPI's Three Positive Factors - The tail - lifting factor can support the PPI to turn positive in the second half of 2026 even without new price - increasing factors [55]. - Imported inflation may occur as overseas capital expenditure and manufacturing investment are likely to rise in 2026. The US deficit rate may expand, and the Fed's new round of easing may release emerging market countries' capital expenditure demand [57]. - The "anti - involution" policy has shown a supporting effect on the PPI. Since August 2025, the month - on - month PPI of the mining industry has turned positive, driving the overall PPI to turn positive since October [60]. PPI Forecast under Different Scenarios - Under the pessimistic scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2026 with an average monthly PPI growth rate of 0%. Under the neutral scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.1%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.2%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in April 2026 and exceed 2% in the second half of the year [67]. PPI's Impact on the Bond Market - Historically, during the four PPI upward cycles since 2009, three typical upward periods were driven by the resonance of domestic and overseas demand or supply - demand. The PPI and the bond market generally move in the same direction, but there were several periods of divergence, mainly due to strong economic recovery expectations or PPI being mainly affected by the supply side while the domestic demand did not improve significantly and the monetary policy remained loose [69][71]. - In 2026, the mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors such as total demand, central bank's capital management, financial institutions' liability - side stability, and the flow of activated household deposits to significantly affect the bond market. The trading of typical total assets based on re - inflation may have limited odds [78]. PART3: Bond Market Strategy for January 2026 - In January 2026, the bond market may still be in a wait - and - see period. Potential risks include government bond supply pressure, the spring rally in the equity market, and the first - quarter credit boom. Potential positive factors include the possible relaxation of large banks' bond - allocation pressure and the relatively loose capital market, with a higher probability of a reserve - requirement ratio cut than an interest - rate cut in January [81]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. Structurally, there are opportunities such as the follow - up rise of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression of credit spreads in credit bonds [4][83].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks over the past year, indicating that they have experienced significant growth and are currently in a bull market phase, although signs suggest it may be in the later stages [3][4][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - Over the past year, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have seen substantial increases, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 52.52% and the CSI All Share Index increasing by 60.43% [6]. - From the lowest point in September 2024 to the highest point in October 2025, the CSI All Share Index rose by 61.93%, indicating a technical bull market [8]. - As of December 26, 2025, the market has experienced a correction of approximately -6.47%, which is less severe than previous corrections in 2024 and early 2025, suggesting that A-shares remain in a bull market [8]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - The current bull market has been characterized by significant gains in small-cap and growth stocks, with some reaching overvaluation levels, indicating that the latter part of the bull market may have been reached [10]. - Dividend stocks have not seen substantial gains and may have potential for future rallies, as they have underperformed compared to broader indices [12]. - By the end of December 2025, many stocks are considered not cheap, with the market rating around 4.1 stars, indicating that while some undervalued stocks exist, many are at or above normal valuation levels [14][23]. Group 3: Market Signals - Key signals to watch in the later stages of a bull market include market valuations, with the valuation table updated daily indicating the overall market's status [16][18]. - The "Screw Star Rating" system is used to assess whether the market is cheap or expensive, with a rating of 4 stars indicating a late bull market phase where most stocks are overvalued [20][23]. - As of December 2025, the market is rated at 4.1 stars, with most stocks returning to normal valuations and very few considered overvalued [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that "expectation differences" are the basis for trading decisions, as without these differences, there are no discrepancies or volatility in the market [1]. Market Overview - The market is experiencing mixed movements with expectations of a better PMI and a balanced, slightly loose funding environment [3]. - The central bank conducted a 3,125 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 593 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 2,532 billion yuan [3]. - Funding rates remain stable, with DR001 around 1.24% and DR007 slightly increasing to approximately 1.69% due to year-end factors [3]. - The stock market showed fluctuations but ultimately closed flat, while the bond market anticipates a better PMI, leading to an overall rise in interest rates [3]. Bond Market Insights - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly higher at 1.86% and fluctuated within a narrow range, with the lowest point reaching 1.85% before rising again in the afternoon due to concerns over upcoming PMI data [3]. - The article notes that the recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices, which increased over 66%, has led to losses for industrial companies, highlighting the disconnect between futures hedging and spot market prices [3]. Trading Sentiment - The article discusses the sentiment among bond traders, suggesting that the "running ahead" may refer to preemptively exiting positions, indicating a potential miscalculation regarding the expected decline in interest rates in December [3]. - The stock market is also mentioned to be engaging in speculative activities, with references to seasonal trading patterns [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints -受股市行情带动，LPR保持不变，宽财政强于宽货币预期、配置盘犹豫与交易盘主导，同时美联储降息预期延续、全球贸易不确定性上升增加了外资流入的不确定性，期债震荡走跌 [3] -当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地 [2] -在需求走弱与政策宽松预期并存背景下，后续稳增长仍更依赖货币侧发力 [2] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators -物价指标方面，中国CPI（月度）环比 -0.10%，同比 0.70%；中国PPI（月度）环比 0.10%，同比 -2.20% [9] -经济指标（月度更新）中，社会融资规模 440.07 万亿元，环比 +2.35 万亿元，环比变化率 +0.54%；M2同比 8.00%，环比 -0.20%，环比变化率 -2.44%；制造业PMI 49.20%，环比 +0.20%，环比变化率 +0.41% [10] -经济指标（日度更新）中，美元指数 98.00，环比 -0.06，环比变化率 -0.06%；美元兑人民币（离岸）7.0081，环比 +0.006，环比变化率 +0.08%；SHIBOR 7天 1.56，环比 +0.11，环比变化率 +7.60%等 [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market -展示了国债期货主力连续合约收盘价走势、各品种涨跌幅情况、各品种沉淀资金走势、持仓量占比、净持仓占比（前20名）、多空持仓比（前20名）、国开债 - 国债利差、国债发行情况等图表 [12][15][17][21] 3. Overview of Money Market Liquidity -展示了Shibor利率走势、同业存单（AAA）到期收益率走势、银行间质押式回购成交统计、地方债发行情况等图表 [26][28] 4. Spread Overview -展示了国债期货各品种跨期价差走势、现券期限利差与期货跨品种价差（4*TS - T、2*TS - TF、2*TF - T、3*T - TL、2*TS - 3*TF + T）等图表 [33][37][40][41] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了两年期国债期货主力合约隐含利率与国债到期收益率、TS主力合约IRR与资金利率、TS主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [39][42][49] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了五年期国债期货主力合约隐含利率与国债到期收益率、TF主力合约IRR与资金利率、TF主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [53][57] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了十年期国债期货主力合约隐含收益率与国债到期收益率、T主力合约IRR与资金利率、T主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [60][63] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了三十年期国债期货主力合约隐含收益率与国债到期收益率、TL主力合约IRR与资金利率、TL主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [67][70][73] Strategies -单边策略：回购利率回落，国债期货价格震荡 [4] -套利策略：关注2603基差回落 [4] -套保策略：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保 [4]

Group 1: Money Market Overview - The average daily trading volume in the money market increased to 7.86 trillion yuan in November, a 2.3% month-on-month rise, with total trading volume reaching 157.2 trillion yuan, up 13.7% month-on-month [2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 600 billion yuan in medium to long-term funds, maintaining a balanced and accommodative liquidity environment, while the main repo rates saw a slight increase [3] - The average daily balance in the money market decreased to 12.5 trillion yuan, down 1.7% month-on-month, with net lending balances from large commercial banks and policy banks also declining by 11.3% and 3% respectively [5] Group 2: Bond Market Activity - The issuance of bonds in the primary market increased to 4.7 trillion yuan in November, a 21.2% month-on-month rise, with net financing reaching 2.18 trillion yuan, up 119.3% month-on-month [6] - The trading volume of bonds also saw an increase, with 30.3 trillion yuan in total transactions, reflecting a 3% month-on-month growth [7] - Long-term bond yields experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield mostly ranging between 1.8% and 1.85%, and the yield curve steepening [8] Group 3: Interest Rate Swaps - The interest rate swap curve shifted upward, with the 6-month, 1-year, and 5-year SHIBOR 3M swap rates increasing by 2 and 6 basis points respectively [9] - The average daily transaction volume in the RMB interest rate swap market decreased by 7.8% month-on-month, with a total nominal principal of 3.7 trillion yuan [9]

Group 1 - The central bank has released signals of precise support for liquidity in December, but actual liquidity injection has shown a slight contraction compared to previous months [1][19][24] - In January, liquidity is expected to be influenced by factors such as credit, government debt payments, tax collection, and cash withdrawals for the Spring Festival, leading to increased market disturbances [2][30][34] - The central bank's operations in January are anticipated to be more aggressive, potentially increasing government bond purchases and lowering reserve requirements, with a possibility of interest rate cuts [2][39][41] Group 2 - In December, the liquidity environment was optimistic, with the DR001 rate declining, indicating ample funding from state-owned banks despite a cautious approach from the central bank [2][19][28] - The upcoming week (December 29 - January 2) will see a decrease in reverse repos maturing, with a total of 1,526 billion yuan due, and no government bond issuances expected [4][43] - The net financing of government bonds for the upcoming week is projected to be 174.5 billion yuan, with a significant focus on local government bond issuances [10][49] Group 3 - The expected credit issuance in January is projected to be around 53,500 billion yuan, marking a seasonal peak, while government bond financing is estimated at 12,600 billion yuan [11][33][38] - The total amount of maturing certificates of deposit (CDs) in January is expected to be 22,797 billion yuan, a decrease from December's 37,066 billion yuan, which may reduce pressure on bank liabilities [11][37] - The overall market liquidity is expected to remain loose, with minor disturbances anticipated in the funding environment [6][43]