Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's strategists indicate that prolonged high interest rates may negatively impact U.S. corporate borrowers as the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Impact of High Interest Rates - The expectation of a soft landing is leading to most defaults appearing as non-performing assets, with higher recovery rates [1] - However, the likelihood of a soft landing is decreasing due to inflation remaining above target, significant policy uncertainty, and rising sovereign term premiums [1] Group 2: Default Rate Projections - Deutsche Bank predicts that the default rate in speculative-grade credit could reach 5.5% around mid-next year, marking the highest level since 2012 for issuer-weighted speculative-grade default rates [1]

我们是中国的长期投资者。 摩根大通CEO戴蒙：必须为滞胀做好准备。 对持续的软着陆持怀疑态度。 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to stabilize and promote long-term economic growth, aiming for high-quality development [2] - The Ministry of Commerce urges the U.S. to correct its restrictive measures on Chinese chips, asserting that such actions hinder sustainable cooperation between enterprises [3] - The Ministry of Commerce reiterates that all parties involved in the sale of the port by CK Hutchison must not evade regulatory scrutiny, highlighting the importance of fair market competition [4] Group 2 - Bridgewater's latest holdings report reveals significant changes, including a substantial increase in positions in Alibaba and a new investment in JD.com, while reducing its stake in Nvidia [6] - The Federal Reserve is reassessing its policy framework to adapt to post-pandemic inflation dynamics, with potential adjustments expected to be announced in August or September [7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised regulations on the use of raised funds by listed companies, emphasizing dedicated use for core business and supporting the real economy [8] Group 3 - Alibaba's latest financial report shows a revenue of 236.45 billion yuan for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, marking a 7% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EBITA rising by 36% [21][22] - Xiaomi announces the upcoming release of its self-developed SoC chip named "Xuanjie O1," which is expected to enhance mobile performance [20] - Wahaha responds to production issues due to capacity constraints, indicating adjustments in production and outsourcing to meet market demands [23][24]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% and the S&P 500 up 0.41%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.18% [1] - Most large tech stocks declined, with Amazon and Meta down over 2%, and Tesla down over 1%. However, Netflix rose over 2% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.37%, with notable declines in stocks like Alibaba and JD.com [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. may be entering a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing challenges for the economy and the central bank [2] - Powell mentioned that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework to address structural changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks post-pandemic [2] - The Fed's strategy reflects a willingness to tolerate higher inflation to promote job growth, marking a significant shift in its approach [2] Economic Indicators - Powell projected that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price inflation for April would drop to 2.2%, although external factors like tariffs could lead to price increases [2] - Recent data showed a surprising decline in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for April, leading traders to slightly increase bets on two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [3] - The latest retail sales figures indicated almost no growth, suggesting a slowdown in consumer spending, which adds pressure to the market [3] Tariff Impact - Analysts from JPMorgan noted that tariff policies could lead to a surge in U.S. goods prices in June and July, making the Fed more cautious about potential rate cuts [3] - The ongoing tariff impacts are contributing to uncertainty and volatility in the economy, with the possibility of a recession still present according to JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is reassessing the terminology of "labor market slack" to avoid interpreting low unemployment as a signal of inflation risk [2] - The Fed is adjusting its "average inflation target" framework to adapt to broader economic changes, indicating a willingness to accept higher inflation for stronger employment growth [2] - Powell anticipates that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price inflation will decrease to 2.2% in April, but tariffs may still drive prices up [3] Group 2 - The Fed is modifying its overall policy framework to address structural changes in inflation and interest rate outlook post-pandemic, with a focus on the increased instability of inflation due to rising real interest rates [4] - The evaluation of the new policy framework is expected to be completed and announced in August or September, while current interest rate decision-making will remain unchanged in the short term [4] - Powell warns that increasing supply shocks will pose significant challenges for the economy and the central bank [4]

金十数据5月15日讯，美联储主席鲍威尔在周四讲话中没有谈及当前的货币政策或经济前景，尽管他确 实表示，他预计4月份个人消费支出价格通胀将降至2.2%——这是一个温和的数据，但仍可能没有反映 出即将到来的关税驱动的价格上涨。尽管如此，这仍然反映了在没有对经济造成重大损害的情况下，反 通胀的"历史上不寻常的结果"，在美联储当前的策略下，确实发生了"软着陆"。 鲍威尔未谈及政策前景，预计4月PCE降至2.2% ...

Group 1: Fund Manager Sentiment - Fund managers' sentiment has become more optimistic, with cash levels decreasing from 4.8% to 4.5% in May, indicating increased confidence [1] - Approximately 17% of investors have reduced their exposure to the US dollar, the highest level since May 2006, while 40% of investors wish to increase protection against dollar depreciation [1] - The proportion of investors believing the US dollar is overvalued has decreased by 12 percentage points to 57%, marking the largest monthly decline since September 2023 [1] Group 2: Currency Valuation Perspectives - About 13% of investors now believe the British pound is overvalued, the highest level in four months, up from 8% in April [1] - The percentage of investors considering the euro undervalued has risen significantly, with 22% now holding this view, an increase of 17 percentage points from the previous month, the largest monthly increase since August 2020 [1] - The perception of gold being overvalued has reached its highest level since May 2008, with 45% of investors holding this view, up from 34% in April [1] Group 3: Economic Growth Outlook - Investor pessimism regarding global economic growth has eased, with a net 59% expecting a slowdown, down from 82% in April [2] - Only 1% of investors anticipate a recession, a significant drop from 42% in April, with a consensus forming around a "soft landing" scenario [2] - 61% of investors now expect a soft landing, an increase from 37% in April, while expectations for a hard landing have decreased from 49% to 26% [2] Group 4: Systemic Risk Factors - 43% of investors identify trade wars as the most likely trigger for a systemic credit crisis, followed by the US shadow banking system at 25% [2] - The survey was conducted prior to the announcement of tariff reductions, which may have influenced investor sentiment positively [2] Group 5: US Stock Market Dynamics - Fund managers have reduced their holdings in US stocks by 38%, the highest level in two years, indicating a cautious approach [3] - The ongoing stock market rally may force investors to chase prices, as many missed opportunities during the previous month's rebound [2][3] - The "no landing" scenario is seen as favorable for US stocks, emerging markets, small-cap stocks, and energy, but could negatively impact gold [3]

Core Insights - Investor sentiment regarding global economic growth has improved, with a net 59% of investors expecting a slowdown, down from 82% in April [1] - The expectation of a recession has significantly decreased, with only a net 1% believing a recession is likely, compared to 42% in April [1] - The prevailing consensus among investors is a "soft landing," where inflation decreases without a significant economic slowdown or recession, with 61% of investors anticipating this outcome, up from 37% in April [1] - Expectations for a "hard landing" have dropped from 49% in April to 26% [1]

在对美国经济前景的展望上，鲍威尔指出，通胀略高于2%的目标，但"核心通胀状况良好"，就业市场 也接近充分就业，因此美联储目前"无需仓促行动"，政策工具也"准备充足"。不过他也警告，如果特朗 普政府宣布的大规模加征关税最终落地，可能会推高通胀、拖累经济增长，并导致失业上升。 在被问及经济当前面临的风险时，鲍威尔坦言，目前通胀与失业的上行风险"双双上升"，美联储需要在 两者之间进行权衡。他强调，美联储将密切关注两项关键变量(通胀与就业)，并在必要时作出政策调 整，"如果我们看到就业市场显著恶化，当然会采取支持行动。" 近期数据显示，美国4月失业率为4.2%，仍处于主流估算的"最大就业"范围之内。但与去年相比，美联 储已显现出更高的容忍度，允许就业市场一定程度上的放缓，以对抗持续偏高的通胀。 面对市场对降息的高度关注，鲍威尔表示，美联储当前采取"观望"策略，并不会因预期经济放缓而预先 调整利率。他指出，由于贸易政策、关税等变量仍存在极大不确定性，美联储"无法提前判断数据如何 演变"，因此将"静待更清晰的数据指引再决定政策走向"。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储主席鲍威尔周三在新闻发布会上表示，美联储在货币政策制定上将继 ...

Market Performance - All three major U.S. indices closed up over 1%, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones recording nine consecutive days of gains, driven by a "moderate" cooling in the U.S. labor market and favorable tariff news [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 564.47 points (1.39%) to 41,317.43, with a weekly gain of 3.00%; the Nasdaq rose by 266.99 points (1.51%) to 17,977.73, with a weekly gain of 3.42%; the S&P 500 gained 82.53 points (1.47%) to 5,686.67, with a weekly gain of 2.92% [1] European Market Performance - The German DAX30 index rose by 2.62% to 23,086.65; the UK FTSE 100 increased by 1.17% to 8,596.35; the French CAC40 index gained 2.33% to 7,770.48; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 2.42% to 5,285.19; the Spanish IBEX35 increased by 1.20% to 13,446.70; and the Italian FTSE MIB index rose by 1.92% to 38,327.94 [2] Cryptocurrency and Commodities - Bitcoin rose approximately 0.5% to near $97,000, reflecting increased risk appetite [3] - Spot gold increased by 0.11% to $3,240.61 per ounce, but fell 2.35% for the week; COMEX gold futures rose by 0.77% to $3,247.00 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 1.58% [3] - WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.6% to $58.29 per barrel, with a weekly decline of over 7.50%; Brent crude oil futures dropped by 1.4% to $61.29 per barrel, with a weekly decline of over 6.85% [3] Macro Economic News - The U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, indicating a "soft landing" path, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%, aligning with market expectations [4] - OPEC+ is discussing an increase in oil production by approximately 400,000 barrels in June, which has led to a drop in oil prices [4] Government Proposals - The U.S. government proposed a $163 billion reduction in the federal budget for 2026, with a 13% increase in defense spending and a nearly 65% increase in homeland security spending, while non-defense discretionary spending would be cut by 23% [5] Company-Specific News - Nvidia is planning to launch a "China-specific" AI chip version, modifying its AI chip design to comply with U.S. export restrictions while continuing to supply Chinese companies [6] - Nike, Adidas, and Under Armour are seeking tariff exemptions due to cost concerns, warning that increased tariffs could significantly raise consumer prices and threaten business viability [6] - Apple is collaborating with startup Anthropic to develop an AI-driven programming software platform, which will enhance its existing Xcode software [7]