5月20日，5月贷款市场报价利率（LPR）报价正式正出炉：5年期以上LPR为3.5%，上月为3.6%；1年期 LPR为3.0%，上月为3.1%。此前，LPR已连续6个月"按兵不动"。 今年年初，央行就已在工作会议提出"择机降准降息"，强调保持流动性充裕，支持经济稳增长。本月早 些时候，年内首次降息降准已全部落地。 5月8日，首次降息落地，政策利率下调0.1个百分点，并同步下调支农支小再贷款、公积金贷款利率0.25 个百分点。 时隔一周，5月15日，首次降准落地。下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点（不含已执行5%存款准 备金率的金融机构），下调汽车金融公司和金融租赁公司存款准备金率5个百分点。 央行行长潘功胜在5月7日的新闻发布会上介绍，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，预计将带动LPR同步下行 约0.1个百分点。同时，通过利率自律机制引导，商业银行也将相应下调存款利率。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对此表示，降息充分体现逆周期调节力度加大，通过利率传导，实体经 济综合融资成本将进一步下降，巩固经济基本面。同时，LPR和存款利率同步下行，有利于保持商业银 行净息差的稳定。 （观察者网综合新华社、中国基金报、智通财 ...

金十数据5月20日讯，2025年LPR首降来了。20日，全国银行间同业拆借中心公布本月贷款市场报价利 率(LPR)。其中，1年期LPR为3.00%，5年期以上LPR为3.50%，均下降10个基点。业内人士预计，下半 年央行还会继续实施降息降准，今年年内LPR还有下降的可能。本次5年期以上LPR调整，能为借款人 省下多少钱？以贷款100万、等额本息30年计算，贷款利率从3.60%降到3.50%，利息总额节省约2万 元，月供减少约56元。 （中新经纬） 100万房贷利息少2万 ...

在中信证券首席经济学家明明看来，历史上央行宣布"双降"（降息降准）的次数并不多，2020年以来的两次"双降"过后， 地方债发行均迎来放量。"双降"为市场提供充足的流动性，参考过往"双降"后地方债的发行经验，今年二季度地方债有望迎来 放量发行。 本报记者 韩昱 5月15日，降准正式落地，此次下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点，向金融市场释放长期流动性约1万亿元。在5月8日，中国人 民银行（以下简称"央行"）以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1586亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率由1.50%调降至1.40%。业 界认为，参考过往情况，此次降准降息落地后，地方债发行也预计迎来放量。 Wind数据显示，截至5月19日，今年以来各地发行地方债共计38741亿元，2024年同期为21961亿元，相比之下今年地方债 发行明显提速。同时，当前各地发行新增专项债规模达到13711亿元，较2024年同期（8558亿元）亦有较大幅度增长。 陕西巨丰投资资讯有限责任公司高级投资顾问朱华雷在接受《证券日报》记者采访时分析，截至5月19日，各地新增专项 债发行同比增长60%，反映今年的发行速度相比去年有显著提升。随着"自审自发"试点方案的推进， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of treasury bond futures is to fluctuate within a range. After the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient, but due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, so is the downward space of treasury bond futures. Overall, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, mainly in a consolidation phase. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, it is mainly in a short - term consolidation phase. [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, and the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. In the short term, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited, mainly in a consolidation phase. Follow - up attention should be paid to external factors such as tariffs and the Fed, as well as domestic macro - economic indicators. [4]

Group 1: Loan and Financing Trends - In April 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion, primarily due to the over-issuance in March and ongoing local debt replacement effects[1][4][11] - The total social financing (TSF) in April was 1.1585 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.2243 trillion, driven by a low base from the previous year and significant government bond issuance[1][7][11] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.0% year-on-year, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating enhanced financial support for the real economy[1][9][11] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The People's Bank of China announced a series of financial support policies on May 7, including interest rate cuts, which are expected to increase bank lending capacity by approximately 1 trillion[3][12] - The easing of the US-China trade tensions, as noted in the May 12 joint statement, may partially restore bilateral trade, although high tariffs will continue to pose challenges[3][12] - The expectation is for continued year-on-year increases in credit and social financing in May, with M2 growth also anticipated to accelerate[3][12][13] Group 3: Structural Changes in Loan Distribution - From January to April 2025, new loans totaled 10.06 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 130 billion, largely influenced by local debt replacement factors[1][6][11] - The structure of loans has improved, with the proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, and key service sectors increasing significantly[1][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent financial statistics released by the central bank, indicating a significant increase in various financial metrics, including a 7.2% year-on-year growth in RMB loans and an 8.0% growth in M2 money supply [1][11] - As of the end of April, the total social financing stock reached 424 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year increase, suggesting enhanced financial support for the real economy [1][9] - The article notes that the growth in financial metrics is influenced by factors such as hidden debt replacement, seasonal overdrafts, and escalating trade tensions, which have led to a decrease in new loans in April [1][4] Group 2 - The structure of credit continues to improve, with household loans increasing by 518.4 billion yuan, while short-term loans decreased by 241.6 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards more rational investment behavior in housing [3][5] - The proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises has risen from 31% to 38%, while loans to large and medium-sized enterprises have decreased from 69% to 62%, reflecting a shift in credit allocation towards smaller businesses [5][11] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, down about 4 basis points from the previous month and 50 basis points from the same period last year, indicating a favorable borrowing environment [5][11] Group 3 - The M2 money supply reached 325.17 trillion yuan at the end of April, with an 8% year-on-year growth, while M1 and M0 also showed positive growth rates [7][8] - The net cash injection in the first four months was 319.3 billion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 783 billion yuan, indicating a robust deposit growth trend [7][8] - The article emphasizes that the financial data growth is more stable and substantial following the previous year's adjustments, with a notable reduction in inflated or irregular loans [11][12] Group 4 - The government bond issuance has accelerated, contributing significantly to the growth of social financing, with net financing exceeding 5 trillion yuan in the first four months of 2025 [10][11] - The article suggests that the central bank is likely to continue implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year to support economic growth [12][11] - Overall, the financial metrics indicate a strong alignment with macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing and boosting the economy, with expectations for continued growth in credit and social financing [11][12]

研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 国债期货日报 2025/5/14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.535 | -0.12% T主力成交量 | 68753 | -347↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.810 | -0.13% TF主力成交量 | 55124 | 3400↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.292 | -0.05% TS主力成交量 | 35705 | 13912↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 118.930 | -0.23% TL主力成交量 | 78310 | -603↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2509-2506价差 | 0.34 | -0.11↓ T06-TL06价差 | -10.40 | 0.19↑ | | | T2509-2506价差 | 0.16 0.27 | -0.02↓ TF06-T06价差 | -2.72 -6.24 | 0.04↑ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2506 is to fluctuate, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, and the intraday view is to fluctuate strongly, with an overall view of range - bound fluctuations. The core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and short - term fluctuations and consolidation are the main trends [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to fluctuate strongly, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, and the reference view is range - bound fluctuations. The long - term upward policy basis for bonds is solid due to policy - driven interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts. However, the current bond futures price already implies the expectation of interest rate cuts, and further cuts require the cooperation of domestic and foreign environments. The hawkish expectation of the Fed's monetary policy may limit the central bank's future easing pace, and the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low. Also, due to the high uncertainty of Sino - US contacts, the demand for bond hedging remains. Overall, bond futures are expected to remain high - level fluctuating in the short term with limited downside [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - For TL2506, short - term: fluctuate; medium - term: fluctuate; intraday: fluctuate strongly; overall view: range - bound fluctuations. Core logic: expectation of interest rate cuts fulfilled, short - term fluctuations and consolidation [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, intraday view: fluctuate strongly; medium - term view: fluctuate; reference view: range - bound fluctuations. Core logic: long - term upward policy basis for bonds is solid due to policy - driven cuts. Current price implies interest rate cut expectation, further cuts need domestic and foreign cooperation. Hawkish Fed policy may limit central bank's easing pace, short - term interest rate cut possibility is low. High uncertainty of Sino - US contacts leads to hedging demand, short - term high - level fluctuations with limited downside [4].

Monetary Policy and Economic Measures - The central bank announced a comprehensive reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, likely leading to a similar drop in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] - The measures aim to stabilize market expectations and support the development of the real economy, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.8% to 3342.67 points on the announcement day [2][3] Public Fund Industry Reform - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced an action plan to promote high-quality development in public funds, shifting focus from "scale" to "returns" [4] - Key changes include linking management fees to fund performance, with lower fees for underperforming funds and potential increases for those exceeding benchmarks [4][5] - As of the end of April, public funds managed 32.5 trillion yuan, with over 50% of pension assets under management [4][5] Trade and Export Performance - In April, China's exports grew by 9.3% year-on-year, while imports turned positive with a 0.8% increase [9] - The total value of goods trade for the first four months reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a 2.4% increase compared to the previous year [9] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline of 21.0%, while exports to ASEAN countries increased by 20.8% [9] Automotive Industry Standards - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public input on new safety standards for automotive door handles, focusing on emergency access and safety in accidents [10] - The proposed standards aim to enhance the safety and visibility of hidden door handles, addressing concerns raised by recent traffic incidents [10][11] Private Sector Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to launch approximately 3 trillion yuan in quality projects this year, encouraging private sector participation in major infrastructure projects [13] - The initiative aims to leverage the flexibility and innovation of private enterprises to enhance project execution and create jobs [13] Stock Market and Corporate Actions - Geely Automobile announced plans to acquire all shares of Zeekr Intelligent Technology, leading to its delisting from the NYSE and a focus on consolidating its automotive business [18] - This move reflects Geely's strategy to enhance its competitiveness in the smart electric vehicle sector amid increasing market pressures [18]

降准降息，向市场注入流动性。 人民银行推出一揽子货币政策措施，主要有三大类共十项措施，其中与房 地产相关的措施包括： 1 ）降低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿元 ； 2 ）下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，预计将带动 LPR 随之下行 0.1 个百分点； 3 ）下调住房公积金贷 款利率 0.25 个百分点，五年期以上首套房利率由 2.85% 降至 2.6% ，其他期限利率同步调整。预计政 策每年将节省居民公积金贷款利息支出超过 200 亿元； 4 ）下调结构货性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个百 分点， PSL 利率从目前的 2.25% 降至 2% 。我们认为，此次大幅降息降准将进一步向市场释放流动 性，降低居民购房成本。政策有利缩小购房成本与租售比之间差距，有助于促进房价企稳和刚需释放；另 一方面， PSL 利率下行降低城中村改造综合成本，对推动多元化手段稳定市场意义积极。 报告导读： 一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。降息降准进一步向市场释放流动性。加快 出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度。 投资建议：维持"增持"评级。 我们认为此次会议是对 4 月政治局会议相关 ...