Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Overseas copper mines face disruptions in production or transportation. However, due to the Trump administration's substantial tariff hikes on multiple countries and the onset of the traditional off - season for domestic consumption, the global electrolytic copper inventory is accumulating. As a result, copper prices may still have room to decline. It is recommended that investors hold short positions, and pay attention to support and resistance levels in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,090 yuan, down 310 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 81,666 lots, up 2,530 lots; the open interest was 169,930 lots, down 2,274 lots; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper inventory was 50,133 tons, up 15,754 tons, and the average price was 77,995 yuan, down 460 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 14, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,643.5 dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 110,475 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was - 62.07 dollars; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was - 124.71 dollars. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio on July 15 was 8.0977, down 0.031 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 15, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.5165 dollars, down 0.07 dollars; the total inventory was 238,264 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. Macroeconomic Information - The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to 500 billion and 50 billion dollars by the end of July and September respectively through increasing the weekly benchmark bond auction size. The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than expected, and the CPI annual rate in June was 2.7%, which was in line with expectations but higher than the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September or December [3]. Upstream Situation - The import index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative but has increased compared to last week. The departure (arrival, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at world (Chinese) ports has decreased (increased, decreased) compared to last week. High - quality scrap copper exports are restricted, and the spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper makes scrap copper more economical, opening the scrap copper import window. Some overseas copper mines and smelters have production disruptions, while some domestic projects are in progress or planned to be put into production [3]. Downstream Situation - The daily processing fee of copper rods for power and cable in East China has decreased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of some copper product industries has changed, with some expected to decline and some to increase. Domestic electrolytic copper holders have no inventory pressure and are reluctant to sell at low prices, while downstream buyers mainly make purchases for immediate needs or long - term contracts [3]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to hold short positions and pay attention to support and resistance levels: Shanghai copper at 78,000 - 78,000 yuan for support and 80,000 - 81,000 yuan for resistance; London copper at 9,300 - 9,500 dollars for support and 9,800 - 10,000 dollars for resistance; COMEX copper at 5.0 - 6.2 dollars for support and 6.0 - 7.0 dollars for resistance [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in domestic copper prices due to U.S. tariff policies and warns that aluminum may replace copper in certain applications, suggesting a potential downward trend for copper prices in the future [1] Group 1: Copper Market Analysis - U.S. tariff policies have led to a substantial rise in domestic copper prices [1] - Analysts are cautioning about the possibility of aluminum substituting copper in specific sectors [1] - The outlook for copper prices may indicate a forthcoming downtrend [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market Implications - The potential for aluminum to replace copper could impact demand dynamics in the metals market [1] - This shift may alter investment strategies within the metals sector [1]

Report Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [18] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2400 points. Major airlines remained stable, possibly supported by good cargo demand. The 08 contract was still at a discount to the spot index and had some room for repair. For the traditional off - season in October, short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities at low prices should be focused on [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The price increase in July was better than expected. The SCFIS settlement index rose above 2400 points. Maersk's mid - July quotes were slightly higher than the first half of the month, and other airlines' quotes converged to $3300 - 3500. In August, only a few airlines had reported freight rates. HPL continued to use the late - July rates, and CMA CGM increased rates by $800 compared to late July [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Referring to historical patterns, the peak season usually reached its high in the third week of July, and freight rates would return to early - July levels by late August. The 08 contract was at a discount to the spot index and had room for repair. For the traditional off - season in October, short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities at low prices should be focused on [8]. 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: From July 7 - 11, the China export container shipping market was generally stable. The comprehensive index decreased slightly. Different routes had different price trends due to supply - demand differences [9]. - **European Route**: The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, indicating stable economic recovery. However, the EU - US tariff negotiation had no clear result, and the market faced uncertainties. Transport demand was stable, and market freight rates were flat. On July 11, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $2099/TEU, down 0.1% [9]. - **Mediterranean Route**: The supply - demand situation was weaker than the European route, and the spot booking price decreased slightly. On July 11, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2667/TEU, down 7.0% [9]. - **North American Route**: The "tariff war" was a focus. Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period to August 1. The US set new tariff rates and planned to impose a 50% tariff on copper. Transport demand was stable, and market freight rates rebounded. On July 11, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to US West and East basic ports were $2194/FEU and $4172/FEU, up 5.0% and 1.2% respectively [9][10]. - **EU - US Trade Negotiation**: The US and the EU were trying to reach a temporary trade agreement, but automobile and agricultural product tariffs were key issues. Any agreement might be overturned by Trump. The US imposed 50% tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, 25% on automobiles, and 10% on other goods. The EU planned counter - measures, with the scale adjusted from 950 billion euros to 720 billion euros [10]. - **Trump's Tariff Plan**: Trump planned to impose a 15% or 20% unified tariff on almost all trading partners that had not been taxed [10]. - **Yemen Houthi Rebels**: The Houthi rebels in Yemen would continue to ban Israeli - related ships from passing through the Red Sea and other areas as long as Israel continued its aggression and blockade of Gaza [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | July 14, 2025 | July 7, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Basic Ports) | 2421.94 | 2258.04 | 163.9 | 7.3% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Basic Ports) | 1266.59 | 1557.77 | - 291.18 | - 18.7% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on July 15 showed that different contracts had different price increases, with EC2510 and EC2512 having relatively large increases of 15.38% and 16.06% respectively [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provided charts on global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [17][20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.7% in June, driven by rising core goods prices, indicates a potential inflation spiral influenced by tariffs, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Tariff-sensitive goods have seen significant price increases, with clothing prices rising 0.4%, home goods up 1%, and toys soaring 1.8% [2]. - The "import-sensitive CPI" indicator constructed by CITIC Securities shows a rise from 0.03% to 0.11%, indicating that tariff costs are accelerating to consumers [2][3]. - The mechanism by which tariffs raise inflation is multifaceted, with immediate impacts on import prices and potential long-term effects on supply chain restructuring [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is at a crossroads, facing internal disagreements on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some officials warning that increased tariffs could lead to more persistent inflation [4]. - The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for four consecutive meetings, with tariff-related inflation influencing future rate decisions [3][4]. - Political pressures are complicating the Fed's decision-making, as the President has publicly called for immediate rate cuts, challenging the Fed's independence [4]. Group 3: Future Policy Concerns - The U.S. economy is navigating between "temporary inflation" and "spiral inflation," with key upcoming events including the August 1 tariff exemptions deadline and the July-August CPI data release [6]. - If tariffs are enacted without agreements, core commodity inflation could rise by 0.55%, potentially pushing PCE inflation to 3.1% by year-end [8]. - The decline in real wages and rising prices may lead to increased unemployment rates, further impacting consumer spending [8].

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Group 1: Global Trade and Economic Impact - The World Trade Organization predicts that global goods trade will experience strong growth in Q1 due to expectations of increased U.S. tariffs, but growth is expected to slow down as higher tariffs are implemented [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, exceeding market expectations, marking the largest increase since February. The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.9% year-on-year [1] - Climate change is causing extreme heat in multiple countries, leading to increased cases of heatstroke, reduced agricultural output, and frequent forest fires, which threaten human health and various socio-economic sectors [1] Group 2: International Relations and Sanctions - The EU foreign ministers' meeting failed to reach an agreement on a new round of sanctions against Russia, focusing on Russian energy revenues [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney indicated that there is currently "not much evidence" that the U.S. is willing to reach an agreement without imposing some tariffs, suggesting that most countries may have to accept a baseline tariff from the U.S. [2] - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio agreed with foreign ministers from the UK, France, and Germany to set the end of August as the deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran, or else sanctions will be reinstated [3] Group 3: Financial Markets and Interest Rates - Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached over 1.59%, the highest since October 2008, driven by expectations of fiscal expansion following the upcoming Senate elections [3] - The U.S. Treasury yields saw increases across various maturities, with the 10-year yield rising by 4.80 basis points to 4.481% [5] Group 4: Commodity Markets - OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and for 2026 at 1.28 million barrels per day [4]

当地时间7月15日，美股市场三大指数高开低走，尾盘加速下跌，道琼斯工业指数跌近1%，大跌逾400 点。大型科技股多数上涨，英伟达涨超4%，再创历史新高。热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙 指数上涨2.76%。 当地时间7月15日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国6月消费者价格指数同比上涨2.7%，高于市 场预期，为2月以来最大同比涨幅。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普15日在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文宣布，美国将对所有进口的印度 尼西亚商品征收19%的关税，而美国对印尼的出口将享受免关税和非关税壁垒待遇。 中国资产大涨 当地时间7月15日，美股三大指数高开低走。截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数下跌0.98%，纳斯达克指数上 涨0.18%，标普500指数下跌0.4%。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 44023.29 | 20677.80 | 6243.76 | | -436.36 -0.98% +37.47 +0.18% -24.80 -0.40% | | | | 多伦多300 | 巴西IBOVESPA | 墨西哥MXX | | 27054.14 | 1 ...

美国总统特朗普在当地时间周二表示，很可能在本月底前对进口药品加征关税，半导体关税也将同步推 进，这些措施或与8月1日实施的全面"对等"关税同时生效。 "大概本月底就会启动，我们先设定较低税率，给制药公司一年左右时间回迁生产，之后会大幅提高关 税。"特朗普在参加匹兹堡人工智能峰会后返程途中对记者表示。 特朗普周二预测在8月1日对等关税生效前，还可能达成"两到三个"贸易协议，其中与印度的协议可能性 最大。 他透露美国正与五六个国家进行实质性磋商，但强调不一定会达成完整协议："可以说印度最有可能， 但总体而言我对通知函的效果非常满意。" 对于未获得定制税率的小型经济体，特朗普表示可能统一征收"略高于10%"的标准关税。 周二稍早，面临30%关税的欧盟已确定本周与美国谈判代表会晤。 他同时透露半导体关税的时间表"与此类似"，且芯片征税"操作更简单"，但未提供具体细节。 在本月早些时候的内阁会议上，特朗普曾宣布计划未来数周对铜征收50%关税，并预计药品关税最终将 高达200%。根据1962年《贸易扩展法》第232条款，政府已启动药品进口威胁国家安全的调查。 这项政策将立即冲击礼来公司（Eli Lilly & Co.）、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Inflation has rebounded as June CPI year-on-year growth slightly increased to 2.7%, with core CPI rising to 2.9% [1][2][12] Inflation Components - Energy prices have shown a significant recovery, with the energy CPI year-on-year growth recorded at -0.8%, a substantial increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Gasoline prices saw a reduced decline of 3.7 percentage points to -8.3%, while electricity prices rose by 1.3 percentage points to 5.8% [4][12] - Core goods CPI year-on-year growth increased to 0.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising prices in furniture, clothing, and used cars, indicating that companies are passing tariff costs onto consumers [5][8] Service Inflation - Core service inflation remained stable, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month. Housing inflation was stable, with owner-equivalent rent growth at 4.2% and rent growth at 3.8% [9] Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations have decreased, with the one-year expectation dropping to 5%, a significant decline of 1.6 percentage points, while the five-year expectation fell to 4% [11] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index declined. The probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has slightly decreased, but the market still anticipates two rate cuts within the year, with the earliest expected in September [12][17]

Group 1 - President Trump is likely to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors by the end of the month, with initial lower rates followed by significant increases after a year [1] - The proposed tariffs could impact pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly (LLY.US), Merck (MRK.US), and Pfizer (PFE.US), potentially raising drug costs for American consumers [2] - The semiconductor tariffs are expected to affect major companies such as Apple (AAPL.US) and Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US), impacting their popular products like laptops and smartphones [2] Group 2 - Trump is negotiating with about five to six countries, aiming for trade agreements rather than solely relying on tariff regulations [3] - A standard tariff rate slightly above 10% may be applied to smaller countries that do not receive special exemptions [3] - The EU representatives are set to meet with U.S. negotiators amid the pressure of a 30% tariff, while some countries are showing willingness to open trade [3]