投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-8-1 ⻩⾦修复性反弹，⽩银延续回落 经历议息会议之夜的利空消息密接轰炸后，⻩⾦⽇内开启修复性反弹， 内盘⻩⾦受到⼈⺠币⾛低的影响，⾛势更为坚挺。美国⼆季度GDP数据超 预期回升，但关税影响下贸易和库存对单季度的影响较⼤，平滑上半年增 速来看，增⻓中枢整体下移的事实客观。后续关税逐渐成为慢变量，关注 其对美国基本⾯及降息预期变化，我们提⽰8⽉下旬的全球央⾏年会更为 重要，关注本周五⾮农数据表现，⻩⾦中⻓期多头趋势并未逆转。 重点资讯： 1）美国上周初请失业金人数为21.8万人，预期22.4万人，前值21. 7万人；四周均值为22.1万人，前值22.45万人；至7月19日当周续请 失业金人数194.6万人，预期195.5万人，前值自195.5万人修正至19 4.6万人。 2）美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升2.8%，预期升2.7%，前值自升2. 7%修正至升2.8%；环比升0.3%，预期升0.3%，前值升0.2%。美国6月 个人支出环比升0.3%，预期升0.4%，前值自降0.1%修正至持平。 3）美国总统特朗普宣布，美国已与 ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Q2 earnings report reveals a mixed performance, with strong revenue but significant concerns over AWS's growth and profitability, particularly in the context of AI demand outpacing supply and rising operational costs [1][2][5][6]. Financial Performance - Amazon's total revenue for Q2 reached $167.7 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase when excluding foreign exchange impacts [27]. - AWS generated $30.9 billion in sales, reflecting a 17.5% year-over-year growth, but this growth is seen as insufficient compared to competitors [1][30]. - AWS's operating profit margin fell sharply from 39.5% in Q1 to 32.9% in Q2, primarily due to increased capital expenditures for AI support [2][31]. AI and Supply Constraints - CEO Andy Jassy acknowledged a significant supply constraint in AI capabilities, stating that demand currently exceeds supply, with electricity being the primary limiting factor [5][6][41]. - The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, including the development of its proprietary AI chip, Trainium2, which is claimed to be 30% to 40% more cost-effective than competitors' GPUs [3][8][22]. Competitive Landscape - Despite AWS's strong position, concerns are growing about its ability to maintain market leadership as competitors achieve higher growth rates [1][30]. - Jassy emphasized AWS's advantages in security and operational performance, attempting to reassure investors about its competitive edge [2][8][37]. Other Business Segments - Amazon's retail business performed well, with record sales during Prime Day and a 22% year-over-year growth in advertising revenue [3][7][30]. - However, Jassy expressed caution regarding potential impacts from tariffs, indicating uncertainty about future demand and pricing [4][7][18]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing in AI and cloud infrastructure to meet growing demand, with expectations of gradual improvements in supply constraints over the coming quarters [31][41]. - Amazon's Project Kuiper aims to address the digital divide by providing broadband access to underserved areas, indicating a long-term growth strategy beyond its core e-commerce and cloud services [47].

– 美国联邦上诉法院就特朗普关税案召开听证会，多数法官对关税合法性提出尖锐质疑。 隔夜要点 – 美股周四收低，早盘涨势未能持续，投资者消化最新一轮企业财报和经济数据，并等待亚马逊和苹果 在盘后公布业绩。美国长期公债收益率下滑，市场正在等待周五发布的7月就业报告。这一走势逆转了 前一交易日因美联储主席鲍威尔发表偏鹰派言论而导致的收益率上升。美元兑主要货币录得2025年以来 的首个月线涨幅，受贸易紧张局势缓解和美国经济复苏支撑。油价下跌，特朗普8月1日的关税最后期限 迫在眉睫，投资者关注围绕尚未与美国达成贸易协议的国家的不确定性。金价上涨，交易员由于关税不 确定性持续存在而转向避险资产。 | 股市指数 | 收报 | 日变动% | 年初至今变动% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纳斯达克指数 | 21122.45 | (0.03) | 9.38 | | 标普500指数 | 6339.39 | (0.37) | 7.78 | | 道琼斯工业均指 | 44130.98 | (0.74) | 3.73 | | 恒生指数 | 24773.33 | (1.60) | 23.50 | | 上证综指 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities (crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, polyvinyl chloride) are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025. It takes into account factors such as price changes, trade agreements, production data, and supply - demand relationships. Overall, most commodities are expected to show an oscillating trend, with specific trends affected by factors like tariffs, production capacity utilization, and downstream demand [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI 9 - month contract fell by $0.74 to $69.26 per barrel, a 1.06% drop; Brent 9 - month contract dropped by $0.71 to $72.53 per barrel, a 0.97% decline; SC2509 closed at 528.2 yuan per barrel, down 3.8 yuan or 0.71%. Trade agreements and potential sanctions may affect future oil demand, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of high - sulfur (FU2509) and low - sulfur (LU2510) fuel oil declined. The overall supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure. If oil prices stabilize, the absolute prices of FU and LU may rebound. The LU - FU spread has rebounded from a low level [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2509) rose. The supply is expected to increase, but the increment is limited. The demand is affected by precipitation, but there is positive support after the rainy season. The spot price is relatively firm, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil price stabilization [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 and EG2509 prices fell on Thursday. Some production facilities had temporary shutdowns and restarts. With cost support from the peak oil demand season, increased supply, and resilient downstream demand, polyester prices are expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the prices of various rubber contracts declined. In June, global natural rubber production decreased by 1.5% to 1191,000 tons, while consumption increased by 0.7% to 1271,000 tons. With increased rainfall in domestic production areas and improved downstream tire production and sales, rubber prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [3][5] - **Methanol**: After the Iranian device load returned to a high level and the arrival volume increased, the downstream profit and start - up remained stable, and inventory continued to increase. Methanol prices are expected to enter an oscillating phase after valuation repair [5] - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand. As long as the cost does not drop significantly, the downside space is limited [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply of PVC remains high - level oscillating, demand is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand gap is narrowing with slow inventory decline. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and short - selling power may recover [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared to the previous day [8] 3.3 Market News - Trump announced a 90 - day extension of the trade agreement with Mexico, with Mexico continuing to pay certain tariffs. Market analysts believe these tariffs are unfavorable to future oil demand [10] - On July 31, the EIA data showed that US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day. OPEC members have accelerated production increases since May, which may lead to market supply surplus [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various commodities, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and their changes over time [29][30][33] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including the spreads between different months [44][45][46] 3.4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different commodities, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of asphalt to crude oil, etc. [65][66][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some commodities, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [69][74] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, awards, and professional experiences [76][77][78] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [81]

Group 1 - South Korea's exports increased by 5.9% in July compared to the same period last year, driven by strong semiconductor exports and stable automobile sales [1] - The increase in exports was higher than the market expectation of 5.1%, with a trade surplus of $6.6 billion due to a slight rise of 0.7% in imports [1] - The data reflects exporters' efforts to ship goods before the U.S. imposed higher tariffs on August 1, with a new 15% tariff rate replacing the previously threatened 25% [4] Group 2 - The trade agreement with the U.S. alleviated some uncertainties for the South Korean economy, which had contracted in the first quarter but showed growth in the second quarter [5] - The South Korean government approved a supplementary budget of 31.8 trillion won (approximately $23 billion) to support its trade-dependent economy [5] - Semiconductor exports were boosted by demand for high-performance chips used in artificial intelligence applications, while automobile exports grew by 8.8% due to strong demand outside the U.S. [5] Group 3 - Exports to China decreased by 3% in July due to reduced shipments of key products like petrochemicals and wireless communication devices [6] - Exports to the U.S. increased by 1.4%, driven by strong performance in semiconductors, wireless devices, cosmetics, and electrical equipment [6] - Concerns remain for the semiconductor industry, as recent growth is linked to increased demand for HBM chips, and future global trade may slow down [6]

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：需要仔细评估特朗普关税的细节。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of setting interest rates by the Federal Reserve amid conflicting economic signals, highlighting the uncertainty in the current economic landscape [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is perceived to be in two distinct scenarios, with Federal Reserve officials needing months to determine which one is accurate [3]. - One scenario suggests that underlying economic weakness may soon become apparent despite stable economic data, while the other posits that investments in artificial intelligence and household wealth growth could help the economy overcome trade war challenges [3]. - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is betting that the true state of the U.S. economy will reveal itself in the next two months [3]. Group 2: Labor Market and Consumer Spending - Powell views the low and stable unemployment rate as a sign of economic stability, but it may mask a deteriorating labor market [3]. - There are signs of weakening consumer spending in the U.S., with a decline in service-related expenditures such as hotels, flights, and dining for three consecutive months, marking the first occurrence since 2008 [3]. - Credit card spending among low-income households has also decreased for the first time in over a year [3]. Group 3: Counterarguments and Economic Resilience - Some analysts argue that the warning signals may be mere noise rather than real risks, suggesting that historical economic resilience could continue despite emerging negative factors [4]. - Key factors supporting the economy include a boom in AI investments and wealth accumulation from rising home prices and stock portfolios, which may sustain consumer spending among affluent households [4]. - The article notes that unless unforeseen shocks occur, such as a sharp rise in long-term government debt yields, a comprehensive recession in the U.S. seems unlikely [4]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell appears to be in no rush to seek answers regarding the economic situation, emphasizing the need for continued observation and learning [4]. - Federal Reserve officials believe they can afford to wait at least two more months to assess the impact of tariffs on economic activity and inflation [4].

根据特朗普最新的行政令，新关税要到8月7日才会生效（新税率适用于此后进入消费或从仓库提取以供消费的货物），而不是之前的8月1日，再次留下关税谈判的时间窗口。白宫官员也表示，希望在新的关税实施日期8月7日之前，与各国达成更多协议。 https://t.co/UAGTqkmETQ外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普签署行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的“对等关税”税率，具体税率从10%至41%不等，其中对瑞士征收39%的关税。 https://t.co/whZKuBskQe ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, on August 1st, with the approaching tariff deadline and a concentration of important events and data, the slight increase in risk aversion sentiment provides some support, leading to a small rebound in gold prices. However, since the agreements among major trading economies are mostly settled, the impetus from risk aversion is limited, and there is still downward pressure on gold prices [4]. - For silver, affected by the sharp decline in New York copper and the downturn in domestic commodities, risk appetite has decreased, causing silver prices to drop significantly. Although there is some support, with the approaching tariff deadline and the release of US non - farm data, and the agreements among major trading economies mostly settled, the downward pressure on silver prices remains [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes and European major stock indexes all closed down. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.20 basis points to 4.366%. The US dollar index dropped 0.02% to 100.04. The offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.31% to $3342.30 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Commodities mostly turned down, and silver prices dropped significantly. The same situation as gold occurred in the stock market, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar index. COMEX silver futures fell 2.51% to $36.79 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.75, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2199 kilograms to 35643 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it. The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 29, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 61 kilograms to 1208033 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below it. The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 07:30 Japan's June unemployment rate; 08:00 South Korea's July exports and imports; 08:30 Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan's July manufacturing PMI; TBD Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" implementation; 09:45 China's July RatingDog China PMI; TBD Trump's so - called "reciprocal tariff" and 50% import copper tariff effective date; 13:00 India's July manufacturing PMI final value; 15:50 France's July manufacturing PMI final value; 15:55 Germany's July manufacturing PMI final value; 16:00 Eurozone's July manufacturing PMI final value; 16:30 UK's July manufacturing PMI final value; 17:00 Eurozone's July CPI preliminary value; 20:30 US July non - farm payroll report; 21:45 US July Markit manufacturing PMI final value; 22:00 US July ISM manufacturing index, July University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value, June construction spending; Sunday OPEC + holds a separate meeting to decide on production policy [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis shows a neutral signal. The increase in warehouse receipts is a bearish factor, and the position of the K - line relative to the moving average is also bearish. However, the main long - position situation is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis is neutral. The change in warehouse receipts is neutral, and the position of the K - line relative to the moving average is neutral. The main long - position situation is bullish [5]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [5].

中化新网讯 7月29日，欧洲化工委员会(Cefic)与德国化工协会(VCI)发表声明，对7月27日公布的欧美初 步贸易协定持谨慎欢迎态度，但双方均表示新关税及贸易协定可能进一步损害化工行业竞争力。 Cefic呼吁尽快披露更多细节。该协会在7月29日的声明中指出，虽然初步协议似乎避免了最坏情况，但 美国对欧洲出口产品加征的额外关税可能会进一步削弱欧盟化工行业竞争力。同时强调，欧盟近期发布 的《化学工业行动计划》急需全面实施，时不我待。 尽管强调额外关税阻碍大西洋两岸贸易投资流动，Cefic仍对初步协议将部分化学品纳入零关税清单表 示认可，称其"释放了积极信号"，并指出所有化学品都需要有利的贸易条件。Cefic呼吁欧美双方"达成 全面平衡的行业协议，确保优惠贸易条件，增强可预见性，提升行业竞争力"。 德国VCI常务董事沃尔夫冈·格罗塞·恩特鲁普在声明中说："期待飓风的人会感激暴风雨，但代价对双方 都过高：欧洲出口正丧失竞争力，而美国消费者还要承担关税。"他表示，美方对多数欧盟进口商品征 收15%的初始关税税率对化工行业来说仍属过高。恩特鲁普强调应通过持续谈判进一步削减欧美化工品 关税，称此举将促进大西洋两岸的再工 ...