1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global geopolitical tensions and US tariff proposals have led to a stagnant oil market, with traders on the sidelines. The decline in domestic manufacturing activity and weakening domestic and export demand have dragged down domestic commodities and the energy - chemical sector. The high volatility of crude oil continues, while the chemical industry is weaker due to the cooling of market sentiment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to drive oil prices, with high refinery开工 rates in China and the US providing support. However, supply pressure from OPEC+ is also present. The strong current situation driven by high refinery开工 and the weak expectation driven by supply pressure lead to oil price oscillations. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [9] - **Asphalt**: With rising oil prices, short - selling opportunities for asphalt emerge. The current asphalt price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [10] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is regarded as weak. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and geopolitical factors only cause short - term price fluctuations [10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its price follows the weakening of crude oil. It faces factors such as falling shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution, and is expected to maintain low - valuation fluctuations [12] - **PX**: The commodity sentiment has cooled, but the cost still provides some support. The overall supply - demand pattern has limited changes, and the inventory remains at a low level [14] - **PTA**: Some plants have short - term shutdowns, and the cost still has some support. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance at the beginning of August [15] - **Pure Benzene**: There is no obvious driving force, and it oscillates in a narrow range. The fundamental situation has improved in the third quarter, but the rebound is restricted by inventory pressure [18] - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has cooled, and it oscillates in a narrow range. There is an expectation of weakening supply - demand, and port inventories are accumulating [19] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have temporarily affected port inventory reduction. In the short term, the cost support has weakened, and supply pressure has increased. There is an expectation of inventory inflection [20] - **Short - Fiber**: The inventory has increased month - on - month. The price passively follows the raw materials, and downstream demand remains weak [22] - **Bottle - Chip**: It returns to the cost - pricing model. The price oscillates weakly following the decline of upstream raw materials [23] - **Methanol**: The port inventory is accumulating, and it oscillates in the short term. The production profit is still relatively high, and there is a negative feedback expectation in the downstream olefin sector [24] - **Urea**: The demand is generally weak, and the market is in a state of weak downward movement. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the market is expected to oscillate or decline [25] - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate has decreased, and it oscillates. Oil prices oscillate in the short term, and the supply pressure is still present. The demand is in the off - season, and overseas factors need to be monitored [27] - **PP**: Attention should be paid to the Sino - US game, and it oscillates. Oil prices oscillate, the supply side has an incremental trend, and the demand side is weak. Overseas factors and Sino - US tariff games need to be monitored [29] - **PL**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and may oscillate in the short term. The short - term capital game is significant, and the spot impact is limited [29] - **PVC**: The policy expectation has cooled, and it mainly oscillates. The market sentiment has cooled, the fundamental situation is under pressure, and the cost is expected to rise [32] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has been unexpectedly reduced, and it is under cautious pressure. The downstream demand has marginal changes, and the production is at a high level. The downward space is limited due to low inventory and cost support [32] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - term Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - term spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.8 with a change of 0.03, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 26 with a change of - 18 [33] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is 126 with a change of - 9, and the number of warehouse receipts is 81140 [34] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: There are also corresponding cross - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 335 with a change of 28 [35] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not provided with specific summarized content in the given text, only variety names are listed such as methanol, urea, etc. [36][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A short-term target price of $70.4 per barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips and left-side layout for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruption season [2]. - For methanol, the upstream production is expected to increase, and the demand side may turn weak, so methanol may face downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the supply and demand are weak, and there is no significant unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For rubber, the price is consolidating after a decline. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider a long RU2601 and short RU2509 band operation [10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, with high valuation. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build-up pattern. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost side to oscillate upward after the port inventory is reduced [14]. - For polyethylene, the price may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [17]. - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate upward [18]. - For PX, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [21]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase and the inventory to build up. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn weak, and there is pressure on the short-term valuation to decline [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.94, or 1.34%, at $69.36; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.92, or 1.25%, at $72.55; INE main crude oil futures closed up 1.70 yuan, or 0.32%, at 531.4 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 0.22 million barrels to 12.75 million barrels, a 1.72% decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.59 million barrels to 8.46 million barrels, a 7.47% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.97 million barrels to 24.67 million barrels, a 4.09% increase; total refined oil inventories increased by 1.33 million barrels to 45.87 million barrels, a 3.00% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 31, the 09 contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 2405 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of -10 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream production has bottomed out and is expected to increase, while the demand side may turn weak, leading to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. The inventory level has decreased [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 31, the 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +46 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has continued to decline, and the demand is weak. Exports are an important source of demand growth. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are consolidating after a significant decline, following the trend of industrial products [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Tire factory operating rates have declined, and the demand is in a seasonal off-season. The supply reduction may be less than expected. The inventory has increased [10]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Wait and see for now, and consider a long RU2601 and short RU2509 band operation [10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 118 yuan to 5041 yuan, and the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 4950 (-110) yuan/ton, with a basis of -91 (+8) yuan/ton and a 9-1 spread of -135 (+2) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, with high valuation [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price has increased, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side has support, the BZN spread has room to repair, the supply has increased, the port inventory has significantly increased, and the demand has increased slightly [14]. - **Outlook**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost side to oscillate upward after the port inventory is reduced [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has decreased, and the spot price has remained unchanged, with a basis of 0 yuan/ton, strengthening 37 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream operating rate has decreased, the inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term [17]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold short positions [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has decreased, and the spot price has remained unchanged, with a basis of 47 yuan/ton, strengthening 27 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream operating rate has decreased slightly, the inventory situation is mixed, and the downstream demand is weak. The cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate upward [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 56 yuan to 6928 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 8 dollars to 858 dollars, with a basis of 142 yuan (-5) and a 9-1 spread of 64 yuan (-42) [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate has decreased, the downstream PTA operating rate is high, the inventory is low, and the polyester and terminal operating rates have recovered. The inventory is expected to continue to decline [21]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider long positions on dips following crude oil [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 48 yuan to 4808 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 35 yuan to 4825 yuan, with a basis of -15 yuan (-5) and a 9-1 spread of -32 yuan (-34) [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand side is about to end the off-season, and the inventory has increased. The processing fee has limited room for operation [22]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider long positions on dips following PX [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 36 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 24 yuan to 4503 yuan, with a basis of 68 yuan (+2) and a 9-1 spread of -27 yuan (+1) [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is weak, the port inventory has decreased, and the valuation is relatively high. The fundamental situation is expected to turn weak, and there is pressure on the short-term valuation to decline [23].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Syrian officials focused on regional stability and Syria's reconstruction, with Russia reaffirming its support for Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity [1] Group 1: Russia's Position - Russia opposes the use of Syrian territory for geopolitical competition by other countries and calls for actions that avoid escalating tensions [1] - Lavrov emphasized the necessity to completely lift sanctions against Syria, stating that sanctions only harm the Syrian people [1] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - Discussions included how Russia can participate in Syria's economic recovery, with an agreement to reassess previously reached agreements and establish a joint committee to evaluate existing mechanisms [1] Group 3: Syrian Stance - Syrian officials expressed no intention to invade Israel, focusing instead on national reconstruction and expressing fatigue with war [1] - They highlighted that Israeli attacks on Syria violate international law and hinder reconstruction efforts and stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on goods from India, along with an undisclosed penalty, signaling a shift in U.S.-India trade relations and highlighting the complexities of their negotiations [4][9]. Trade Relations - Trump announced that starting August 1, the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods, which surpasses tariffs on other countries like Vietnam (20%) and Indonesia (19%) [4][6]. - The U.S. has a significant trade deficit with India, with a reported $457 billion, which Trump emphasized in his statements [4][6]. Negotiation Challenges - Key obstacles in U.S.-India trade negotiations include agricultural market access and India's digital tax on U.S. tech companies, which has led to tensions [7][10]. - India's previous proposals to increase bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 have not materialized, indicating a failure in negotiations [6][10]. Geopolitical Implications - The imposition of tariffs is seen as a tool for the U.S. to challenge India's trade and diplomatic autonomy, particularly due to India's reliance on Russian military equipment and energy [9][11]. - Trump's actions suggest a shift in U.S. foreign policy, prioritizing "America First" over traditional alliances, which may diminish India's strategic position [16]. Political Context - India's Prime Minister Modi faces political pressure domestically, making it difficult for him to concede to U.S. demands without risking his support base [15][16]. - The upcoming 2024 elections in India add to the complexity, as Modi's party has lost its parliamentary majority, limiting his negotiating power [15][16].

Group 1: Oil Price Movements - International oil prices rose due to concerns over supply following Trump's tariff threats against India, which is a major buyer of Russian oil [1][3] - As of July 30, West Texas Intermediate crude oil settled at $70.00 per barrel, up $0.79 (1.14%), while Brent crude oil settled at $73.24 per barrel, up $0.73 (1.01%) [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - Trump's threats to impose a 25% tariff on India are seen as a move to leverage geopolitical power, aiming to disrupt Russia's oil revenue streams [3][4] - The sanctions and geopolitical tensions have led to a decrease in refinery operations in India, raising concerns about tightening supply in the refined oil market [1][3] Group 3: U.S. Oil Inventory Impact - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a significant increase in crude oil inventories, with a rise of 7.7 million barrels, the largest increase since January [1][4] - The increase in inventory levels, particularly in Cushing, Oklahoma, has limited the upward momentum of oil prices despite geopolitical tensions [1][4] Group 4: Chevron's Operations in Venezuela - Chevron has received limited permission from the U.S. government to operate in Venezuela, provided that oil revenues do not benefit President Maduro's government [2] - This permission allows Chevron to make decisions within its joint ventures and engage in procurement and contract payments [2] Group 5: Long-term Energy Dynamics - The short-term oil price dynamics are influenced by U.S. policy deterrence and resource autonomy from Russia, Venezuela, and Iran, while long-term stability will depend on OPEC's rule innovations and Asian demand resilience [5] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with emerging energy cooperation networks potentially countering U.S. tariff strategies [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of international crude oil has continued to rise due to geopolitical relations and other factors, which has strengthened the cost support for PX. The domestic PX supply level is low, demand is good, and the fundamental boosting effect still exists. However, whether the PX benefit can continue to rise depends on whether there are more unexpected factors. [2] - The cost of PTA is pushed up by the rising crude oil, but the spot basis has weakened due to the shipment of the main PTA suppliers. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and it is difficult to boost the price due to the expected new device production on the supply side and the lack of improvement in the off - season on the demand side. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets has risen, but the market trading atmosphere is light. The supply side's starting level remains low, and the market supply is abundant, while the downstream terminal's buying enthusiasm is not high. [2] - Without more unexpected positive factors, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 30, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased by 1.14% and 1.01% respectively compared with the previous values. The spot prices of naphtha, xylene, etc. also showed varying degrees of increase. [1] - **PTA**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA's main and near - month contracts, as well as the domestic spot price and CCFEI price index, all increased to different extents on July 30, 2025. The near - far month spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10 yuan/ton. [1] - **PX**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX's main and near - month contracts increased on July 30, 2025. The domestic spot price remained unchanged, and the spot prices in other regions increased slightly. The PXN spread and PX - MX spread decreased. [1] - **PR**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR's main contract increased slightly on July 30, 2025, while the closing and settlement prices of the near - month contract decreased slightly. The mainstream market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets showed different trends, and the basis also changed accordingly. [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price indices of some polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, and short - fiber increased slightly on July 30, 2025, while some remained unchanged. [2] Operating Conditions - On July 30, 2025, the PX start - up rate remained unchanged at 77.29%. The PTA factory load rate decreased by 1.14 percentage points to 79.45%, while the load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. [1] - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament increased by 77 percentage points to 110%, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester short - fiber decreased by 10 percentage points to 43%, and the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips increased by 21 percentage points to 89%. [1] Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1. [2] Trading Strategy - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,856 yuan/ton (0.41%) with an intraday trading volume of 540,300 lots. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,984 yuan/ton (0.66%) with an intraday trading volume of 143,500 lots. The PR2509 contract closed at 6,014 yuan/ton (0.00%) with an intraday trading volume of 33,700 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. [2]

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, but 8 - month downstream PTA device maintenance increases and terminal demand lacks improvement. Its trend follows macro - sentiment and oil prices. PX09 is treated with caution and short - bias, and the PX - SC spread is expanded at low levels [2]. - PTA: Current load is around 80%, but 8 - month device maintenance increases. Supply - demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the medium - term. The absolute price follows the cost and market sentiment. TA is short - biased above 4900, TA9 - 1 is in a rolling reverse spread operation, and the PTA disk processing fee is expanded at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, and demand is weak in the traditional off - season. It is greatly affected by the macro in the short - term. EGO9 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 is in a reverse spread operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials. The operation strategy is the same as TA, and the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand follows up generally, and the processing fee increase is limited. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is the same as PTA, and the PR main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry The core contradiction of the urea fundamentals is unresolved, and the market is in a shock pattern. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, and the release of export demand needs to be tracked [10]. Crude Oil Industry Overnight oil prices rose, driven by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, the upward momentum of prices depends on the continuation of geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, with short - term long - bias [55]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are stable for now, and it is expected that the liquid caustic soda price will be stable this week. Attention should be paid to risk avoidance [43]. - PVC: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are rising, and export expectations are good. However, the overall supply exceeds demand, and short - term caution is recommended [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply - demand improves slightly in the first quarter, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows the overall market sentiment in the short - term, and the main contract BZ2603 follows the oil price and styrene [46]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the basis is weakening. The price is under pressure, and EB09 is in a rolling short - bias operation [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and there is potential restocking demand. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. PP is short - biased (7200 - 7300), and LP01 is held [50]. Methanol Industry Inland maintenance will peak in early August, production is high, ports are slightly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weakening. In August, imports are still high, and downstream demand is weak. The MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [58]. 3. Summary by Catalog Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry showed small fluctuations on July 30th compared with July 29th. For example, Brent crude oil (September) rose by 1.0%, and POY150/48 price rose by 0.6% [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, PTA, and MEG comprehensive开工率 showed different degrees of change, with polyester comprehensive开工率 rising by 0.5% [2]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and spot prices in different regions also had slight changes. For example, the 05 - contract of urea futures rose by 0.28% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 1.26% on August 1st compared with July 31st, and factory inventory increased by 6.81% week - on - week [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 31st, Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, and spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [55]. - **Inventory and Production**: US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 769.8 barrels compared with the previous week [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of East China calcium - carbide PVC increased by 0.8% [43]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC开工率 changed slightly, and inventory also had certain fluctuations. For example, PVC total social inventory increased by 3.9% [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Pure benzene and styrene prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of pure benzene in East China spot rose by 0.7% [46]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed, and port inventory increased [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.28% [50]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, and enterprise and social inventory also had certain changes [50]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed. For example, the MA2509 closing price decreased by 0.62% [58]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory changed, and upstream and downstream开工率 also had certain fluctuations [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Trump's tariff threat is essentially a political gaming tool with a weak intention to block Russian oil, and its impact on the crude oil market will be limited to short - term emotional shocks. Geopolitical risk events have a short - term impact on the crude oil market and cannot reverse the overall trend. After the macro super - week, as major macro uncertainties are gradually eliminated, the market logic will shift more towards fundamentals [1][12]. Summary by Directory Policy Nature: Political Gaming Takes Precedence over Energy Blockade - The core logic of the US's secondary sanctions signal against Russia is more of a geopolitical pressure tool rather than a substantial energy blockade. The measure of imposing a 100% tariff on countries like China, India, and Brazil that purchase Russian oil has more political intent than actual enforcement effectiveness. Trump chose to start sanctions through an executive order, leaving a 10 - 12 - day negotiation window and room for flexible adjustment. Considering the export and import structures between relevant countries and the US, the sanctions are likely to stay at the level of "extreme pressure", creating a market expectation of "high threat, low execution" [2]. Historical Reference: The "Pulse - like Impact - Rapid Fading" Path of January Sanctions - The Biden administration's sanctions on Russian oil tankers in January this year can be regarded as a preview of the current situation. Although it initially caused Brent crude to jump 6.8% to $81.2 per barrel in 3 trading days, the actual effect was quickly disproven. - There were structural loopholes in the evasion mechanism. Countries like India and Turkey used old tankers for STS transfer, and China and Russia increased the proportion of RMB settlement. Some ports quickly took over the unloading demand of Russian oil [3]. - The market expectation self - corrected. After the 5th trading day of the sanctions announcement, the oil price started to decline because the actual export volume did not drop significantly. Russia adjusted its export structure, and the overall export volume quickly recovered. The freight increase was lower than expected [4]. - Fundamentals played the ultimate leading role. During the sanctions, OPEC+ maintained a production cut of 160 million barrels per day, US shale oil production was stable, and OECD commercial inventories rose, which jointly suppressed the upward space of oil prices. Brent crude returned to the $75 - 80 range within a week. Compared with the current situation, the market has a higher tolerance for geopolitical disturbances, and short - term sharp fluctuations are unlikely to reappear [6]. Market Focus Shift: The OPEC+ Meeting Will Reshape the Oil Price Logic - As the Fed's interest - rate decision in July becomes clear, the crude oil market logic is accelerating its return to fundamentals. The OPEC+ meeting on August 3 will be a key turning point. - The continuity of the production - cut agreement is a focus. Whether Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary production cut of 100 million barrels per day is crucial. Maintaining the current policy may support the oil price, while relaxation may suppress the geopolitical premium. OPEC+ core members have already restored 191.9 million barrels per day of production, and the remaining voluntary production - cut quota is only 24.5 million barrels per day [7]. - Russia's production statement is important. Despite the sanctions threat, Russia's crude oil production has been stable. If it promises to maintain production discipline at the meeting, it will strengthen the market's expectation of supply tightness. However, the impact of sanctions on global supply is limited due to Russia's adjusted export structure [8]. - The signal of idle - capacity release is significant. Saudi Arabia has about 300 million barrels per day of idle capacity. Whether it hints at increasing production in the fourth quarter will directly affect the medium - and long - term oil price trend. The market generally expects OPEC+ to approve a production increase of 54.8 million barrels per day in September, which may exacerbate the concern of oversupply. OPEC+ decisions usually have a 4 - 6 - week impact on oil prices, longer than the short - term impact of geopolitical events [9]. Viewpoint Summary: Short - Term Disturbances Do Not Change the Medium - Term Pattern - Trump's tariff threat is a short - term emotional shock. Geopolitical risk events have a short - term impact on the crude oil market and cannot reverse the overall trend. As the OPEC+ meeting approaches, the market logic is shifting from geopolitical gaming to fundamentals. The global crude oil market shows a "tight balance" feature, and factors such as stable US shale oil production and rising OECD inventories restrict the upside space of oil prices. Investors should rationally view the current geopolitical premium, hedge the emotional premium in the short term, and focus on structural opportunities after the OPEC+ meeting in the medium term [12].

摘要周三（7月30日），周二，随着投资者等待美联储利率决议、一系列重要经济数据以及美国贸易谈 判的结果，美元指数延续涨势，盘中站上99关口，创五周新高，最终收涨0.26%，报98.89。现货黄金止 步四连跌，一度触及3330美元关口，但未能站稳，最终收涨0.35%，收报3327.37美元/盎司；现货白银 横盘震荡，最终收涨0.08%，报38.175美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 周三（7月30日），周二，随着投资者等待美联储利率决议、一系列重要经济数据以及美国贸易谈判的 结果，美元指数延续涨势，盘中站上99关口，创五周新高，最终收涨0.26%，报98.89。现货黄金止步四 连跌，一度触及3330美元关口，但未能站稳，最终收涨0.35%，收报3327.37美元/盎司；现货白银横盘 震荡，最终收涨0.08%，报38.175美元/盎司。 【要闻汇总】 "美联储传声筒"NickTimiraos撰文称"美联储官员预计他们将最终需要降息，但并未准备好在本周议息会 议中进行"。本次议息会议需要重点关注鲍威尔对于后续货币政策路径的表态。我们认为在本次议息会 议中美联储将进行鸽派表态，不排除其进行超预期降息的可能。而国际银价在美联 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, affected by macro - sentiment and terminal restocking, but downstream PTA maintenance and weak terminal demand limit its drive. Follow macro - sentiment and oil prices, be cautious and bearish on PX09, and expand PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. - PTA: Load is around 80%, 8 - month maintenance increases, and short - term drive is limited. Be bearish on TA above 4900, conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage, and expand PTA processing margin at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, but affected by macro factors. EG99 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage is the main strategy [2]. - Short - fiber: Short - term supply - demand is weak, follow raw materials. Unilateral strategy is the same as TA, and PF processing margin fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand is average, and processing margin has limited upside. PR is the same as PTA, and pay attention to expanding the processing margin at the lower end of the 350 - 600 range [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties and better - than - expected demand data. Short - term trading focuses on geopolitical risks, and the market fluctuates along the upper edge of the range. Use short - term band strategies, and capture volatility opportunities in options [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Third - quarter supply - demand improves slightly, but new device production limits de - stocking. Follow market sentiment, and BZ2603 follows oil prices and styrene [13]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is weak, port inventory increases, and basis weakens. EB09 is rolling bearish [13]. Methanol Industry - Supply is high, port inventory may increase in August, downstream demand is weak, and MTO profit is low. Expand MTO09 profit at low levels [29]. Polyolefin Industry - In August, supply pressure increases for PP and PE, demand has potential restocking conditions, and overall valuation is moderately high. PP is bearish unilaterally (7200 - 7300), and hold LP01 [32]. Urea Industry - The disk rebounds slightly, but the core contradiction remains. Supply is high, export policies limit demand, and inventory pressure increases. Pay attention to autumn fertilizer progress and device restart [34]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is strong, and the spot is stable. Supply increases and inventory may rise. The price is expected to be stable, and pay attention to risk avoidance [37][40]. - PVC: The disk sentiment recovers. Supply may increase, domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are good. The supply exceeds demand, and be cautious in the short - term [37][40] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: On July 29, most polyester product prices and cash flows changed slightly. For example, Brent crude (September) rose to $72.51/barrel, and POY150/48 cash flow was - 24 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: MEG port inventory decreased slightly, and PTA device maintenance increased in August. Terminal demand showed signs of restocking but was still weak [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of polyester - related industries changed slightly, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 30, Brent rose to $72.51/barrel, and WTI slightly decreased. Spreads such as Brent - WTI changed [7]. - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical risks and demand data drove oil prices, while OPEC+ production increase limited long - term gains [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, pure benzene and styrene prices changed slightly, and related spreads also changed [12]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory decreased slightly, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, methanol futures prices rose, and basis and spreads changed [29]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [29]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, polyolefin futures and spot prices changed slightly, and basis and spreads changed [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, supply pressure increased, and demand had potential restocking conditions [32]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, urea prices in different regions changed slightly, and spreads also changed [34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was high, device maintenance decreased, and export demand was restricted [34]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, caustic soda and PVC prices changed, and spreads and basis changed [37]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and downstream demand operating rates changed, and inventory also changed [37][38][39][40]