特朗普还宣布对马来西亚征收25%的关税，老挝和缅甸则将面临40%的关税。其他被征收关税的国家包 括印度尼西亚(32%)、孟加拉国(35%)以及泰国和柬埔寨(36%)。 美国Axios新闻网称，美国总统特朗普周一发出关税信，对主要盟友征收25%的关税。 Axios指出，经过数月的威胁，特朗普突然再次升级贸易战。对于那些渴望确定性、经历了一段相对平 静时期的企业来说，此举可能会再次打破这种平衡。这也给基本上已经进入后关税时代的金融市场注入 了新的风险。 【技术分析】 黄金日线周一收阳，十字星后很可能就会破位日线布林中轨的压制，那么，多头就能形成单边走势，到 时候就难以形成调整了，上方就可以看到3400，3430高点，因此，黄金的多头表现很明确，但在日线还 差一个布林中轨的破位。H4中期的技术形态低位三连阳，布林收口，站稳在布林中轨之上是绝对的强 势，金价继续上涨上方就看3365附近，3365是上周的高点，这个点位破位布林拉开，本周就有可能形成 大涨空间看到3400，3430。所以，周一，周二，周三黄金行情还是看涨，但要等待调整做多，看涨先关 注3365的得失。 周二（7月8日）亚洲时段，现货黄金维持窄幅震荡，目前 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】欧佩克+的八个产油国在8月3日继续举行会 议，以审查市场状况、合规情况和补偿事宜。依据列表，8月份 沙特阿拉伯原油日产量可以达到975.6万桶；俄罗斯原油日产量 可以达到934.4万桶。伊拉克原油日产量可以达到417.1万桶， 阿联酋原油日产量可以达到327.2万桶；科威特原油日产量可以 达到251.8万桶；哈萨克斯坦原油日产量可以达到153.2万桶。 评：OPEC+维持增产的立场不变。短期原油低库存，消费旺季， 成品油开工和加工利润尚可。中期重点关注6-8月期间OPEC+实 际产量落实情况。短期震荡，中期等待沽空时机成熟。适度提 防地缘演化。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普接连在社媒上公布其对多个 国家发出的关税信函，截至目前，其已对14个国家发出最新的 关税税率威胁。其中日本、韩国、哈萨克斯坦、马来西亚和突 尼斯面临25%的关税税率，南非、波斯尼亚税率为30%，印尼税 率为32%，孟加拉国和塞尔维亚为35%，泰国和柬埔寨税率为 36%，老挝和缅甸税率为40%。上述关税将于8月1日生效。评： 关税扰动再起，避险情绪对贵金属或有一定支撑，但是本次关 税扰动或较弱，市场关 ...

不同销售渠道的金价差异巨大，投资者需仔细甄别。 银行金条：民生银行、农业银行、平安银行等机构今日金条报价分别为790.45元/克、790.30元/克和788.20元/克，普遍高于大盘价约18元/克。 这主要是因为 银行金条包含品牌溢价、正规回购渠道及制作工艺等隐性成本，适合追求长期储值或送礼的投资者。但若以投资获利为目的，则需仔细权衡溢价是否合理。 黄金投资指南：2025年7月6日金价波动分析及投资策略 今日金价剧烈波动，国际金价更是创下近三个月新高，引发市场热议。许多投资者纷纷询问：是时候出手黄金了吗？本文将深入分析今日金价走势，并结合 不同渠道的金价差异，为您的投资决策提供参考。 国际金价飙升，创近三月新高 国际金价今日表现抢眼，纽约期金价格暴涨至3347.35美元/盎司，单日涨幅高达4.45%；伦敦现货金更是突破至3336.93美元/盎司，单日涨幅惊人地达到 11.06%，创下近三个月最大单日涨幅。 这波强劲上涨主要源于美联储降息预期升温以及美元走弱，导致全球资金涌入黄金市场寻求避险，从而推高了国际 金价。 换算成人民币，国际金价约为768.73元/克，较昨日上涨2.55%。 对于现货黄金及纸黄金投资者 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's tariff policy has triggered increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a significant drop in U.S. stock markets and a subsequent rebound in gold prices [3] - The People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, indicating a strategic emphasis on gold as a long-term asset [3] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are closely monitored, with a 95% probability of maintaining rates in July and a 60% chance of a rate cut in September, influenced by inflation concerns [3] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold showed a rebound after a dip, indicating relative strength and potential for further upward movement if it breaks through resistance at 3365/3366 [4] - The four-hour chart suggests that gold is in a corrective phase, with the potential for a third wave of upward movement if it holds above the support level of 3296 [6] - Key support levels to watch include 3321 and 3315, while resistance levels are identified at 3365/3366 and 3374 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stocks: Short - term shock, biased towards strong operation, short - term cautious long [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term high - level shock, cautious observation [2] - Commodities: - Black: Short - term low - level shock rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous: Short - term shock correction, short - term cautious observation [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious observation [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level shock, cautious long [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date and imposed new tariffs on some countries, increasing short - term tariff risks and cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, the June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, sent letters to 14 countries about new tariffs (25% on Japan and South Korea), increasing short - term tariff risks, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated; domestic consumption policy stimulus increased, and the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized "anti - involution", which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets, RMB appreciation, and continued warming of domestic market sentiment led to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks short - term shock, biased towards strong; treasury bonds short - term high - level shock; black commodities short - term low - level shock rebound; non - ferrous short - term shock correction; energy and chemicals short - term shock; precious metals short - term high - level shock [2]. 3.2 Stocks - Driven by sectors such as CSSC, power, and cross - border payment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. The current trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward drivers weakened. Short - term cautious long [3]. 3.3 Precious metals - Trump's tariff announcements increased market risk - aversion sentiment, but the strengthening US dollar and better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data, as well as the Fed's cautious attitude, put pressure on precious metals. The "Big Beautiful Act" provides long - term support for gold. Tariff disturbances will be the main short - term influencing factor, and gold volatility is expected to rise [4]. 3.4 Black metals 3.4.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined slightly, and trading volume remained low. The focus shifted to tariff negotiations. Vietnam imposed anti - dumping tariffs on Chinese hot - rolled steel, and the off - season affected demand. Supply - side production decreased, but finished product output increased slightly. Cost support was strong. Short - term range - bound thinking [5][7]. 3.4.2 Iron ore - Iron ore spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron production decreased, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. After the end - of - quarter shipment peak, shipping volume decreased, and arrival volume increased slightly. If iron production continues to decline, ore prices may fall [7]. 3.4.3 Silicon manganese/silicon iron - Spot prices were flat. Demand for ferroalloys was okay due to the increase in steel output, but there was a possibility of a decline in finished product output. Manganese ore prices rose. The market was expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. 3.4.4 Soda ash - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the signal of "anti - involution" from the Central Financial and Economic Commission, there were concerns about production capacity withdrawal in the glass industry, which initially drove up the price, but then it fell due to the weak supply - demand situation. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance, demand increased slightly, and profit decreased. In the long run, supply remained loose, and it was not advisable to go long [9]. 3.4.5 Glass - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, there were expectations of production cuts in the glass industry, which drove up the price. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and profit was at a low level. Production - cut expectations on the supply side were expected to support prices [10]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and new energy 3.5.1 Copper - The market may fluctuate as the July 9th deadline approaches. The clarity of trade tariffs may help the market rise. China's refined copper production increased in 2025, and inventory was at a medium - low level due to high demand [11]. 3.5.2 Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell due to tariff concerns. LME inventory increased, and domestic inventory also increased slightly [11]. 3.5.3 Aluminum alloy - Entered the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Short - term shock, biased towards strong, but limited upside [11]. 3.5.4 Tin - Supply increased as the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded. Demand was weak in most sectors, and inventory increased. Short - term shock, but high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weakening demand would limit the upside in the medium term [12]. 3.5.5 Lithium carbonate - The main contract price fluctuated slightly. Supply faced a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. Cost support was strong. Viewed as shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.6 Industrial silicon - The main contract price was stable, and the spot price rebounded. Total production decreased due to reduced furnace - opening in the north. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.7 Polysilicon - The main contract price was strong, especially in the far - month contracts. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, expected to be strong, with high price elasticity [13][14]. 3.6 Energy and chemicals 3.6.1 Crude oil - Strong demand offset concerns about OPEC+ production increase and US tariffs. Short - term shock [15]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Oil prices were low, asphalt prices were in shock. Shipping volume decreased, factory inventory decreased slowly, and social inventory increased slightly. Followed crude oil at a high level [15]. 3.6.3 PX - After the decline in crude oil premium, the PX price weakened, and the PXN spread narrowed. PTA production recovery would support PX, and the weakening trend might slow down [15]. 3.6.4 PTA - Spot liquidity improved, inventory increased, and the basis and 9 - 1 spread weakened. Downstream operating rates continued to decline, and PTA prices had room to fall [16]. 3.6.5 Ethylene glycol - Port inventory decreased, supply pressure weakened, but downstream demand limited further inventory reduction. Short - term bottom - building, followed the polyester sector weakly [16]. 3.6.6 Short - fiber - Crude oil price decline drove down short - fiber prices. It followed the polyester sector, with weak terminal orders and high inventory. It would be in a weak shock pattern in the medium term [16]. 3.6.7 Methanol - Domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals provided short - term support, but international production recovery and expected downstream maintenance led to a poor supply - demand outlook. It rebounded slightly under policy influence, with limited upside [16]. 3.6.8 PP - Production - restriction and new capacity coexisted, supply pressure eased slightly. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and oil prices were weak. Prices were expected to fall further [17]. 3.6.9 LLDPE - Equipment maintenance increased, but production was still high year - on - year. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase. Prices were under pressure [17]. 3.7 Agricultural products 3.7.1 Palm oil - As of July 4, 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in June, exports increased, and inventory was expected to decrease. Concerns about the US EPA hearing [19]. 3.7.2 Corn - Imported corn auctions and new wheat substitution increased supply, and futures prices were expected to weaken. However, it was difficult for futures to trade at a discount. The expected import volume was not expected to affect the new - season market, but there were concerns about pests and diseases [19][21]. 3.7.3 US soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans fell. The planting area was determined, and weather in the 7 - 8 key growth period was crucial. The current growing environment was good, but the risk of tariff implementation increased export uncertainty [20]. 3.7.4 Soybean and rapeseed meal - Soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Oil mills had high operating rates, and supply was abundant. The supply pressure in the 09 contract period was difficult to relieve, but short - term stability in US soybeans provided some support [20]. 3.7.5 Soybean and rapeseed oil - Soybean oil production decreased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil was supported by policies and the international market, and soybean oil inventory increased. They lacked an independent market and were affected by palm oil [20]. 3.7.6 Pigs - Leading enterprises had low willingness to increase sales volume and reduce weight. Supply in July was expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea in spring. There was a weak supply - demand situation, and the expected profit in the 8 - 9 peak season was low. Second - fattening was cautious, and the concentrated supply at the end of July and August would limit price increases [21].

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices has led consumers to deliberate on whether to purchase gold, particularly for jewelry or investment purposes [1] - The current gold price is influenced by international market trends, interest rate expectations, and heightened risk aversion [4] Price Trends - Major gold retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook are quoting prices between 1003-1005 yuan per gram, an increase of 5-7 yuan from previous prices [4] - China Gold's price is lower at 969 yuan per gram, allowing for significant savings when purchasing larger quantities [4] Price Differentiation - The price of jewelry gold is significantly higher than investment gold due to factors like craftsmanship, brand premium, and operational costs [5] - For example, a 10-gram gold chain from Chow Tai Fook costs approximately 10,050 yuan, while an equivalent investment gold bar costs around 7,850 yuan, highlighting a price difference of 2,200 yuan [5] Purchasing Strategies - For investment purposes, it is advisable to choose investment gold bars or wholesale gold, which have lower premiums and are closer to international gold prices [6] - For personal use or collection, consumers should compare prices across different brands to find the best deal [8] - For savings or appreciation, it is recommended to wait for a slight correction in international gold prices or to use a dollar-cost averaging strategy to mitigate investment risks [8] Timing for Purchase - Concerns about buying at a peak are valid, but high price levels do not necessarily indicate an imminent drop [9] - Gold investment should focus on long-term value preservation rather than short-term speculation [9] - If there is a pressing need and funds can be held long-term, short-term price fluctuations may be less impactful [9] Conclusion - The ongoing rise in gold prices necessitates careful consideration in purchasing decisions [10] - Consumers should align their gold product choices and timing with their specific needs to avoid unnecessary losses and achieve investment goals [10]

【要闻速递】 周一（7月7日）亚洲时段，伦敦金开盘走弱，现货黄金走势下挫，接连失守3320、3310美元关口，短期 内，金价可能在3300至3400美元/盎司区间内震荡，交易者应保持谨慎，等待明确突破信号。 7月3日公布的6月美国非农就业数据显示，新增就业岗位14.7万个，超出市场预期的11.1万个，失业率降 至4.1%。这一强劲数据削弱了市场对美联储7月降息的预期，美元指数自多年低点97附近反弹，金价因 此在周四出现显著回落。市场目前预计美联储降息概率降至25%，对金价走势构成短期压力。 特朗普推动的90天关税暂停期将于7月9日到期，美国计划向各国发送信函，明确对出口商品的关税税 率。这一政策引发市场对全球贸易和经济增长的避险情绪，支撑了黄金作为避险资产的需求。然而，关 税政策的不确定性也导致市场波动加剧，黄金价格在高位承压。 【技术面分析】 黄金行情上周整体呈震荡上行，当周最低3246，最高3365，周线收阳于3337，周线看两阳后收阴，虽处 于上行通道，但形态看还有下跌，本周先看3250和3200，日线，呈大区间震荡，综述金价还将处于大区 间来回震荡，短线有回调，重点关注消息面，3250下破则看3200 ...

Market Overview - The latest tariff threats from the Trump administration have led to a sell-off in risk assets, causing declines in U.S. stock index futures and European stock indices [1] - The U.S. plans to impose export restrictions on AI chips, resulting in a broad decline in European chip stocks [1] - Safe-haven assets like gold saw a price increase of nearly $20, while oil prices fell due to recent production increase news [1] U.S. Stock Futures - On July 4, the U.S. stock and bond markets were closed for Independence Day, but prior to the holiday, S&P 500 futures fell by 0.69%, Dow futures dropped by 0.61%, and Nasdaq 100 futures decreased by 0.71% [3][4] European Stock Indices - The European STOXX 600 index closed down by 0.48%, with a weekly decline of 0.46% [5] - The Eurozone STOXX 50 index fell by 1.02%, accumulating a weekly drop of 0.69% [6] - The German DAX 30 index decreased by 0.61%, with a weekly decline of 1.02% [7] - The French CAC 40 index fell by 0.75%, with a slight weekly increase of 0.06% [7] - The UK FTSE 100 index remained flat, closing at 8822.91 points, with a weekly increase of 0.27% [8] Sector Performance - European chip stocks experienced a broad decline, with ASML Holdings dropping approximately 2.6% [9] - Following the announcement of anti-dumping duties on EU brandy by China's Ministry of Commerce, Remy Cointreau's stock fell by 7.2% before recovering to close up by 2% [9] Bond Market - The U.S. bond market was closed on July 4, but European bond markets showed strength on the preceding Friday [9] - The German 10-year bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points, while the UK 10-year bond yield rose by 1.3 basis points [13] Commodity Market - Gold prices increased by 0.33%, closing at $3337.15 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.92% [21] - Oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures down by 0.76%, closing at $66.49 per barrel [16]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high with a gain of 0.47%, while the Nasdaq rose nearly 1%, contrasting with a slight decline in the Dow Jones [2][3] - The rally was primarily driven by technology stocks, with Tesla surging nearly 5%, Oracle also jumping 5%, and Nvidia and Apple both increasing over 2% [3] Company-Specific Insights - Tesla's delivery numbers have declined for two consecutive quarters, yet the stock rose over 4%, indicating strong market confidence in the long-term prospects of electric vehicles despite short-term delivery data [3] - Cathie Wood's ARK Investment increased its stake in Tesla during the recent pullback, suggesting that major investors still believe in the long-term growth narrative for electric vehicles [3] Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.27%, while the two-year yield experienced volatility following the release of ADP employment data, reflecting ongoing market concerns about the economy and Federal Reserve policy expectations [3] - The U.S. dollar index saw a slight decline, while crude oil prices increased by around 3%, and precious metals like gold and platinum also rose, indicating a potential increase in risk-averse sentiment among investors [3] Trade and Sector Performance - News of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam led to a surge in apparel and footwear stocks, with Nike rising over 4% [3] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with the Golden Dragon Index barely up by 0.06%, while companies like Xpeng and Tiger Securities saw slight gains, contrasted by declines in New Oriental, Alibaba, and Bilibili [3] Investment Strategy - The current market environment is characterized by volatility, with technology giants supporting the indices through performance and AI narratives, while trade policies and economic data introduce uncertainty [4] - Long-term investors are advised to focus on whether the rebound in tech stocks is driven by sentiment recovery or fundamental support, and whether short-term trade benefits can translate into sustained corporate growth [4]

贵金属产业日报 2025-07-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 776.04 | -0.06 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8747 | -63 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 168596 | 1131 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 249023 | -15701 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 143164 | 3150 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 91814 | 972 | | 现货市场 | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 18456 | 3 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1338659 | -185 | | | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 772.9 | 4.71 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8734 | 46 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -3.14 | 4.77 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) | -13 ...