Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis in the U.S. government has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to increased risk aversion in the market, as evidenced by the surge in gold prices and strong performance in major overseas stock markets, including Chinese concept stocks [1]. Market Performance Summary - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold rose from $3883.9 to $4039.9, marking a 4.02% increase during the holiday period [1]. - **Copper Prices**: COMEX copper increased from $4.8810 to $5.0670, reflecting a 3.81% rise [1]. - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum prices went up from $2664.5 to $2750.5, a 3.23% increase [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The DAX 30 index rose from 23775.12 to 24597.13, a 3.46% increase, while the Nasdaq increased from 22591.154 to 23043.379, a 2.00% rise [1]. - **Oil Prices**: Brent crude oil decreased slightly from $66.78 to $66.08, a 1.05% drop, while U.S. crude oil fell from $63.18 to $62.19, a 1.57% decrease [2]. Commodity Performance Summary - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices increased from 4369 to 4546, a 4.05% rise [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil rose from 49.67 to 51.34, a 3.36% increase [1]. - **Natural Gas**: U.S. natural gas prices increased from $3.253 to $3.341, a 2.71% rise [1]. - **Zinc Prices**: LME zinc prices rose from $2917.5 to $2995.0, a 2.66% increase [1].

Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - During the National Day holiday, there were two major trading themes in global assets: the US government shutdown and the victory of Sanae Takaichi as the president of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party. The global risk appetite is expected to rise driven by liquidity. Japanese stock indices and gold led the gains, while long - term bond yields in major countries such as the US and Japan increased due to concerns about loose fiscal policies and debt sustainability [1][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Holiday News Summary and Thoughts - **US Government Shutdown**: On the evening of September 30, the US Senate failed to pass the annual appropriation bill, leading to a government shutdown. The core reason is the disagreement between the two parties on medical insurance welfare spending. The shutdown may delay important economic data releases and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision. The market's concern about the unsustainability of US government debt has increased [11][12]. - **Sanae Takaichi's Victory**: On October 4, Sanae Takaichi won the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election. Her victory implies a high probability of becoming Japan's prime minister. Her policy style is expected to continue "Abenomics", with a combination of loose fiscal and monetary policies, which may lead to a strong Japanese stock market, a weak Japanese bond market, and a weak yen. The market's expectation of a Japanese interest - rate hike in October has been postponed [12][13]. - **Gold Price Increase**: During the National Day holiday, the COMEX gold price rose 2.49% in three trading days. The rise is driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold purchases. The US government shutdown further boosted gold's safe - haven demand [14]. 2. Global Asset Class Performance - **Equity Assets**: During the National Day holiday (October 1 - 6), equity asset prices generally rose, with Japanese stock indices performing outstandingly. In the domestic market, A - shares were on holiday, and Hong Kong stocks rose first and then fell. Overseas, most global stock indices rose after the Fed's September interest - rate cut. Sanae Takaichi's victory pushed up the Japanese stock market [15][19]. - **Commodity Market**: The US government shutdown drove up the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Gold, silver, and copper prices rose significantly, while crude oil prices generally fell [19]. - **Bond Market**: Affected by the US government shutdown and concerns about the sustainability of loose fiscal policies, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields first decreased and then increased, with a net increase of 2.0BP. Japanese bonds showed a steepening trend, with 10 - year Treasury bond yields rising 1.5BP. Italian and German 10 - year Treasury bond yields also increased [20]. 3. Overseas News Summary - **US Government Shutdown and Data Delays**: Key economic data were postponed due to the government shutdown. The new ADP employment was negative, but the decline slowed down. The US 9 - month manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, but the contraction speed slowed down, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose significantly [27][30]. - **US 9 - month ISM Manufacturing PMI**: The 9 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, a slight increase from the previous month. Except for output, supplier delivery, and prices, other sub - items were in the contraction range. The output item had the largest month - on - month increase, while new export orders had the largest decline [32]. - **Eurozone Inflation**: In September, the Eurozone CPI increased slightly year - on - year, and the core CPI decreased month - on - month. The PPI decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [36]. - **Sanae Takaichi's Victory and BOJ Expectations**: Sanae Takaichi won the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election, and the market's expectation of a BOJ interest - rate hike in October was postponed [39]. 4. Domestic News Summary - **Travel**: During the National Day holiday, the cross - regional population flow and private travel volume increased compared with the same period last year. Domestic and international flight operations also increased, especially international flights [44][45]. - **Movies**: During the National Day holiday, the number of moviegoers and box office revenue were close to those of 2024 but far lower than those of 2019. The number of movie screenings was significantly higher than that of 2019 [51]. - **City Subways**: The subway ridership in most first - tier cities decreased during the National Day holiday [51]. - **Catering**: Catering consumption was booming during the National Day holiday. The order volume of "Must - eat List" restaurants increased significantly, and the sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased year - on - year [58]. - **Real Estate**: Shanghai's second - hand housing transactions decreased compared with 2024, while Beijing's real estate market was active during the National Day holiday. The real - estate market's "stabilization" still needs further confirmation [58][61].

Market Trends & Price Analysis - Gold price surpassed $4,000/ounce due to the ongoing US federal government shutdown and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The market is still digesting expectations of interest rate cuts, which will further benefit gold [1] - Increased policy uncertainty and bets on the Federal Reserve's easing policy are keeping safe-haven demand strong [1] Investment & Holdings - Investors are rapidly increasing their holdings of gold ETFs [1] - Gold ETF holdings expanded last week, bringing total holdings to the highest level since September 2022 [1] - Current total holdings are still below the peak of 2020, indicating further room for increased holdings [1] Central Bank & Geopolitical Factors - Central banks are continuing to buy gold, despite record high prices [1] - China's central bank increased its gold holdings for the 11th consecutive month in September [1] - The ongoing trade war and heightened geopolitical risks contribute to the potential for further gold price increases [1] Future Outlook - Expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are growing [1] - All factors suggest that gold still has room for further upside [1]

Group 1 - AMD's stock surged by 37% after OpenAI announced a deployment of 6 gigawatts of AMD GPU computing power, resulting in a market capitalization increase of $100 billion [1][3] - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant turmoil, with Ethereum contracts facing liquidations amounting to $143 million, more than double that of Bitcoin, leading to over 130,000 liquidations in 24 hours [1][3] - The surge in AMD's stock price highlights the intense competition for AI computing power, while the cryptocurrency market's volatility is exacerbated by changing policy expectations and market sentiment [5][7] Group 2 - Chinese concept stocks, such as NIO and Xpeng, saw gains as they became a safe haven for funds, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.46% [5] - Gold prices surged to $3,950 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, with central banks accumulating significant gold reserves [5][7] - The contrasting fortunes of technology giants and retail investors illustrate the disparity in benefits from technological advancements, with retail investors facing significant losses in the cryptocurrency market [7]

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance this week, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by +4.34%, +3.88%, and +6.90% respectively [4][14] - All major industry sectors, except telecommunications, experienced gains, with the materials sector leading with a weekly increase of over 10% [4][14] - Technology stocks performed exceptionally well, driving consumer discretionary and information technology sectors to weekly gains exceeding 6% and 5% respectively [4][14] Valuation Levels - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stands at 83.81%, indicating a valuation level above the 5-year average by one standard deviation [4] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount this week was HKD 3.07 billion, a significant decrease from last week's HKD 4.84 billion [25][26] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of HKD 2.20 billion, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) with HKD 0.32 billion [25][26] Southbound Capital Flow - The top net buying companies this week included Alibaba (9988.HK) with a net buy of HKD 15.14 billion, and Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with HKD 4.65 billion [33] - The top net selling companies included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) with a net sell of HKD 2.75 billion, and China Mobile (0941.HK) with HKD 1.40 billion [34] Macroeconomic Environment - The overall economic performance remains stable, with the composite PMI indicating a slight improvement to 50.6, while the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8, showing continued recovery [38][43] - The National Development and Reform Commission is actively promoting a new policy financial tool worth HKD 500 billion to support specific projects [38][39] Market Outlook - The economic data indicates a further weakening trend, with domestic economic conditions still in a bottoming phase; future policies are expected to focus on stimulating domestic demand and supporting key industries [4][43] - The report suggests a favorable outlook for sectors such as automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology, which are expected to benefit from policy support [4][43]

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold opened strong on October 6, rising nearly 1% to a record high of $3920.77 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 49% [1] - COMEX gold also reached a new high of $3945.2 per ounce [1][2] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to increased uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown and rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25% in September [3] - The probability of a rate cut in October is approximately 95%, with a 99% probability for December [3] - According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of maintaining the current rate in October is only 5.4% [3] Group 3: Oil Market - OPEC+ held an online meeting on October 5 to discuss production arrangements for November, with expectations to confirm an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day [5][6] - Since April, OPEC+ has abandoned its reduction strategy, leading to a significant increase in oil supply [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that if the current production trend continues, oil supply surplus could reach historical highs by 2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a new historical high, with spot gold hitting $3920.77 per ounce and COMEX gold reaching $3945.2 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 49% [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. Senate's failure to pass a temporary funding bill has led to a government shutdown, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3]. - The decline in the U.S. dollar index and treasury yields has created a favorable environment for precious metals, with the government shutdown acting as a new driver for gold's rebound [3]. Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points has further supported the logic for rising gold prices [4]. - Market expectations indicate a 94.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and an 84.9% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [4]. Investment Trends - Gold ETF net inflows surged to $13.6 billion over the past four weeks, with total inflows exceeding $60 billion since 2025, marking a record high [4]. - Major banks like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have raised their price targets for gold, predicting potential increases to $4000 or even $5000 per ounce [4]. Consumer Behavior - The surge in gold prices has led to increased foot traffic in jewelry stores in Shenzhen, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook seeing prices for gold jewelry surpassing 1100 yuan per gram [5]. - Wedding-related gold products have become popular, with many brands raising prices for fixed-price items, reflecting consumer demand for convenience and budget adherence [5].

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-10-06 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《价格回升驱动企业利润改善，修复斜 率放缓》 - 2025.09.29 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：美国 GDP 上修，经济韧性仍存 ⚫ 核心观点： 上周四晚间公布的美国经济数据整体好于预期，初请失业金人数 显著下降，二季度 GDP 大幅上修。经济的稳健表现说明，关税的负面 影响较为有限，企业的经营状况依然强劲。然而当日美股却出现回调， 反映出当前市场更关注降息预期所带来的估值提升，而非依靠经济增 长推动的盈利改善。 上周，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，当前的股价水平"已经处于相当 高的估值区间"。回顾历史经验可以发现，在美联储主席过往就股票 估值发出警示后的一个月、六个月和十二个月内，股市并未因此录得 负回报。平均而言，在这些警告发布后的一年内，标普 500 指数和全 球股市的平均回报率虽然仍为正值，但收益水平略低于 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices rose last Friday, hovering near historical highs, marking the seventh consecutive week of increases due to growing concerns over the economic impact of the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its second week, creating a stalemate with no strong pressure to resolve the situation, which raises economic concerns such as interruptions in federal employee salaries and project funding freezes [1] - If the shutdown extends to mid-October, the impact may worsen, potentially leading to broader risk aversion and pushing gold prices above $4,000, while a quick bipartisan compromise could see prices retreat to around $3,850 [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The key strength and weakness points for gold this week are at $3,820 and $3,750, respectively, indicating that as long as $3,820 holds, a strong upward trend is expected [4] - Gold has broken the $3,900 high, with expectations to reach $4,000, although this is based on market sentiment rather than specific reasons [2] - For silver, the international market saw significant adjustments, with a recent high of $48.3, maintaining a bullish outlook with targets of $49 and $50, while key support levels are at $46 and $45 [4] Group 3: Futures Market - Domestic gold futures (Shanghai Gold) experienced a decline before the National Day holiday, dropping from 873 to 855, but the trend remains bullish as it has rebounded to around 870 [5] - The silver futures market (2512 contract) closed at 10,920, with no night trading reflecting the recent downward movement, leading to a cautious stance until further analysis post-holiday [5]

Market Overview - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a delay in the release of official economic data, including the September employment report, which was originally scheduled for October 3 [3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.09%, the Dow Jones by 1.10%, and the Nasdaq by 1.32% over the past week, while European indices also performed well, with the FTSE 100 up 2.22% and the DAX 30 up 2.69% [1] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Investors are anticipating a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October and an 85% probability of another cut in December [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and speeches from officials, including Chairman Powell, are expected to provide insights into future monetary policy [3][4] Gold and Oil Prices - International gold prices have reached a new high, closing at $3,880.80 per ounce, marking a 2.77% increase for the week, driven by concerns over the prolonged government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts [6] - In contrast, international oil prices have dropped significantly, with WTI crude oil falling 7.36% to $60.88 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and seasonal demand declines [6] European Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to release the minutes from its September meeting, with inflation in the Eurozone rising from 2.0% to 2.2% [7] - The upcoming budget announcement from the UK government is anticipated to be a significant indicator, with concerns over the economic outlook reflected in the low demand for UK 10-year government bonds [7][8] Upcoming Economic Data Releases - Key economic data releases this week include the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and various manufacturing and trade data from Germany and the Eurozone [9]