2025 年 05 月 20 日 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | （日盘） 收盘价 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4182 +17（+0.41%） | 4177 | -7（-0.17%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2886 -16（-0.55%） | 2872 | -21 （-0.73%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1051.25 +0.25（+0.02%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 291.2 -0.6（-0.21%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） 持平； | 较昨-100至-20； 2960～3000， 持平或-10； M2509-60/-50/-30， 8-9月M2509+20/+30/+50/+60， | 现货基差M2509+100/+140 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PX**: The monthly spread remains strong. Hold the position of going long on PX and short on PTA. Pay attention to the regression of the PX - MX spread. As the demand for PX remains tight and the PX - MX spread has expanded during the PX price increase, it is recommended to lock in the PX - MX spread at high levels and go short on PX while going long on SC [6]. - **PTA**: Continue to hold the position of compressing PTA processing fees. The mid - term view on the monthly spread is to go long on dips. Due to the planned production cuts by filament factories, there may be a short - term unilateral correction [6]. - **MEG**: Due to the planned production cuts by filament factories, there may be a short - term unilateral correction [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: On May 19, 2025, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6752, 4776, 4475, 6544, and 3563 respectively. The daily changes were 0.1%, 0.0%, 0.3%, - 0.1%, and - 0.3% respectively [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads (9 - 1) of PX, PTA, and MEG on May 19 were 168, 116, and 77 respectively, with daily changes of 24, 30, and 32 respectively [2]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: On May 19, the PTA09 - 0.65PX09 spread was 387, with a daily change of - 3 [2]. - **Basis**: On May 19, the PX basis was 216, with a daily change of 5 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On May 19, the PTA warehouse receipts were 68831, showing a daily decrease of 1215 [2]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: On May 19, the PX price rose. The 6 - month MOPJ was estimated at $564/ton CFR. One July Asian spot was traded at 843, and one August Asian spot was traded at 836. The PX spot price strengthened in the Asian opening session due to tight supply and healthy downstream polyester activities. Some producers may increase production as profit margins improve, but market participants are cautious about over - supply [4][5]. - **Crude Oil**: On May 19, Asian afternoon crude oil futures fell as traders focused on the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and the economic prospects of the US and China. Although the agreement to suspend some tariffs for 90 days supported the crude oil price, concerns about potential economic slowdown persisted [4]. - **MEG**: On May 19, the MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China was about 74.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in different regions showed different changes, and the shipments in some main warehouses were also provided [5]. - **Polyester**: A 200,000 - ton polyester plant in Fujian will start maintenance tonight for about 20 days, mainly producing polyester filament. On May 19, the sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 30% - 40% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were mainly for刚需, with an average sales rate of 45% by 3:00 pm [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX and PTA is - 1, while the trend intensity of MEG is 0 [8].

2025 年 5 月 20 日 品 研 究 硅铁：成本或存下移，硅铁宽幅震荡 锰硅：现货价格支撑，锰硅宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2507 | 5690 | -14 | 138,921 | 217,169 | | 期货 | 硅铁2509 | 5594 | -24 | 52,341 | 148,212 | | | 锰硅2506 | 5784 | -8 | 5,874 | 20,304 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5844 | -14 | 248,199 | 387,926 | | | 项目 | | 价格 | 较前一交易日 | 单位 | | | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5400 | - | 元/吨 | | 现货 | 硅锰:FeMn65Si17:内蒙 | | 5580 | +30.0 | 元/吨 | | | 锰矿:Mn44块 | | 37.5 | - | 元/吨度 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that both coke and coking coal markets will experience downward trends in hot metal production and will show a weak and fluctuating pattern [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: On May 19, 2025, the closing price of JM2509 was 845 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan or 0.88% from the previous day; the closing price of J2509 was 1428 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan or 1.21% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: JM2509 had a trading volume of 417,286 lots, an open interest of 459,046 lots, and an increase of 14,459 lots; J2509 had a trading volume of 24,044 lots, an open interest of 53,630 lots, and an increase of 3,097 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: For coking coal, prices of most domestic varieties remained unchanged, while the peak - view coal converted to RMB increased by 2 yuan; for coke, all spot prices remained unchanged [2] - **Warehouse Receipt Costs**: Among coking coal warehouse receipts, the cost of Mongolian 5 decreased by 15 yuan, and the cost of Mongolian 3 decreased by 20 yuan; the cost of coke warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2509 in Shanxi increased by 7.5 yuan, while that of Mongolian 5 and 3 decreased; the basis of J2509 in different regions all increased; the spread of JM2509 - JM2601 increased by 11 yuan, and the spread of J2509 - J2601 increased by 0.5 yuan [2] Price and Position Status - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: On May 19, 2025, the ex - warehouse prices of coking coal in northern ports ranged from 1190 to 1350 yuan/ton [2] - **May 19th Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index**: The price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu remained unchanged; the price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Mongolian 5) in Shaheyi decreased by 15 yuan; the price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Mongolian 3) in Shaheyi decreased by 20 yuan [3] - **Position Status**: On May 19, 2025, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 7,490 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,315 lots; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract increased by 1,723 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,709 lots [3][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is 0, and the trend intensity of coking coal is 0 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strategic shift of a prominent Chinese trader, Bian Ximing, from gold to copper, capitalizing on market trends and macroeconomic factors, resulting in significant profits in both commodities [1][10]. Group 1: Trader Profile - Bian Ximing, aged 61, is the chairman of multiple companies including Zhongcai Group and Zhongcai Futures, and is known for his low public profile and significant influence in the futures market [2][4][6]. - He has a substantial ownership stake of 65.32% in Zhongcai Group, which operates in various sectors including chemicals, finance, and futures [4]. Group 2: Trading Performance - From 2022 to 2024, Bian successfully capitalized on the gold market, earning a net profit of $1.5 billion (approximately 10.8 billion RMB) by strategically timing his investments [7]. - As of early 2025, he has established a long position of $1 billion in copper futures, making him the largest individual investor in the Shanghai copper market, with a current floating profit exceeding $200 million [8][9]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The shift from gold to copper is based on a deep understanding of global macroeconomic trends and commodity cycles, with copper being essential for emerging industries and facing structural shortages [10]. - Predictions indicate a significant supply-demand gap for copper, potentially reaching 8 million tons by 2030, driven by increased demand from the renewable energy sector and supply disruptions in major copper-producing countries [10]. Group 4: Trading Strategy - Bian's trading philosophy emphasizes a systematic approach, focusing on trend confirmation before making large investments, and managing funds across different accounts for various strategies [11]. - His operational style includes dynamic position management, where he adjusts holdings based on market conditions rather than simply locking in profits [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Bian is currently exploring global arbitrage opportunities in the London copper market, with forecasts suggesting that copper prices could challenge $10,000 per ton by the end of 2025 [12].

2025 年 05 月 19 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：大幅反弹 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20130 | -55 | ર્સર | 435 | -470 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20190 | ー | ー | ー | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2485 | -15 | 67 | 88 | -143 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 135974 | -34564 | 20323 | 16323 | -4581 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 204057 | 3174 | 22319 | 81343 | 30626 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 11210 | -418 | 144 | -382 | -5008 | | | | LME注销仓单占比 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term expectation for the pig industry has weakened. The current north - south fat pig price spread is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. The continuous price exceeding expectations has led to continued inventory accumulation, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales has initially confirmed the inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the stock, and the far - end expectation has weakened. For the 1 - month contract, due to liquidity issues, although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month price spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. One should wait for the opportunity of liquidity transfer, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long - term, paying attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,190 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of pig 2507 is 13,405 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of pig 2509 is 13,660 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of pig 2511 is 13,420 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig 2507 is 5,531 lots, down 4,458 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,679 lots, up 95 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2509 is 28,345 lots, down 12,012 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 79,274 lots, up 1,713 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2511 is 5,399 lots, down 1,173 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 31,145 lots, up 868 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of pig 2507 is 1,445 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of pig 2509 is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of pig 2511 is 1,430 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 7 - 9 spread of pigs is - 255 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 9 - 11 spread of pigs is 240 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values for trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The classification of strength levels is as follows: weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - Currently, the north - south fat pig price spread is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. The continuous price exceeding expectations has led to continued inventory accumulation, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales has initially confirmed the inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the stock, and the far - end expectation has weakened. The 1 - month contract is affected by liquidity. Although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month price spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. One should wait for the opportunity of liquidity transfer, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long - term, paying attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for corn and corn starch is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the spot price of corn continued to oscillate strongly, while the futures price declined slightly due to weak basis, increased hedging pressure, and stronger auction expectations. The energy demand is expected to recover moderately, which will significantly exceed the decline in deep - processing demand. Corn spot prices are expected to continue to rise, and it is recommended to hold the existing 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spreads strategies [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Review 3.1.1 Corn - Analyzes the performance of corn's futures and spot prices, basis, spot price trends, and 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 month spreads [13][18][19] 3.1.2 Corn Starch - Examines the futures and spot prices, basis, the spread between starch and corn futures, the spot price spread in Weifang, and the by - product income compensation of corn starch [21][22][28] 3.2 Corn Fundamental Information Weekly Observation 3.2.1 Receipt and Auction of Reserves - Focuses on the corn auction and procurement information on the Sinograin online bidding platform [30][32] 3.2.2 Inventory - Covers the grain inventory, foreign - trade inventory, domestic - trade inventory in southern ports, and the inventory in northern ports of corn, as well as the corn inventory and consumption of major deep - processing enterprises [34][37][43] 3.2.3 Substitutes - Analyzes the price spread between wheat and corn and the theoretical substitution advantage spread of wheat for corn [50][51] 3.2.4 Demand - Considers the profitability of corn - to - ethanol production, the operating rate of corn alcohol, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs [53][54][56] 3.3 Corn Starch Fundamental Information Weekly Observation 3.3.1 Profitability - Analyzes the profitability and profit of corn starch enterprises [59][61] 3.3.2 Supply - Focuses on the operating rate and processing volume of corn starch enterprises [63][64] 3.3.3 Demand - Examines the operating rates of fructose syrup, maltose syrup, corrugated paper, and box - board paper in the starch sugar industry [67][69][70] 3.3.4 Inventory - Covers the available inventory and the seasonal trend of registered warehouse receipts of corn starch enterprises [73][74]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The index has stable support below and significant upward breakthrough pressure. The short - term Treasury bonds may fluctuate, and the precious metals market has entered a volatile phase. The shipping index's upward momentum may slow down, and the steel and coal markets are facing price adjustments. The agricultural products market is affected by various factors such as policies and supply - demand relationships [2][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The index has stable support below and large upward breakthrough pressure. It is recommended to sell put options at the support level to earn premiums or go long on the September IM contract at low prices and sell call options with a strike price of 6400 in September for a covered strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term Treasury bonds may be in a volatile state. It is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the capital market and economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold has formed a "double - top" pattern and entered a volatile phase. Selling out - of - the - money gold call options can be held. Silver follows gold's fluctuations and has support at $32 (8000 yuan) [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Index Futures**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider positive spreads for 8 - 10 and 6 - 10 contracts and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. - **Steel Futures**: The spot market is stabilizing, and there are macro - level benefits. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled coil and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Coal Futures**: Coke prices have entered a new round of price cuts, and coking coal prices may be bottom - hunting. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke or coking coal [2]. - **Chemical Futures**: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have strong supply - demand drivers but limited oil price support. Short - fiber prices follow raw materials, and ethylene glycol has strong short - term support [3]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Different agricultural products are affected by different factors. For example, soybeans are affected by biodiesel policies, and sugar is affected by Brazilian data [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Futures**: Different non - ferrous metals have different price ranges and trends. For example, copper has strong upward pressure, and tin rebounds due to improved macro - sentiment [5]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil is affected by the progress of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and the short - term market is in a weak and volatile state [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Group 2: Core View of the Report - It is recommended to wait for a short - selling opportunity after the rebound of methanol MA2509. The reasons are that the bullish macro - sentiment is hard to last, the supply of inland coal - based methanol is recovering quickly, and the relative valuation of methanol is not low [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2425 yuan/ton to 2388 yuan/ton, a 1.53% drop; MA05 fell from 2450 yuan/ton to 2400 yuan/ton, a 2.04% decline; MA09 dropped from 2365 yuan/ton to 2320 yuan/ton, a 1.90% decrease [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price in Taicang decreased by 3.70% from 2497.50 yuan/ton to 2405.00 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong increased by 0.21% from 2375.00 yuan/ton to 2380.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from 72.50 yuan/ton to 17.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 all decreased, with declines of 0.58%, 1.02%, and 0.99% respectively [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol remained at 504.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 410.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profit of Methanol**: The profits of Northwest MTO, East China MTO, and acetic acid increased by 36.14%, 38.96%, and 18.40% respectively. However, the profit of MTBE decreased by 9.44%, and the profit of formaldehyde increased by 4.41% [1]. 3. Information - **Domestic Futures Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 declined, opening at 2363 yuan/ton, closing at 2320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 802,959 lots and an open interest of 734,318 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Three methanol plants with a total capacity of 5.6 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are operating at a reduced load, and there are plans for other methanol plants in the Middle East to shut down for maintenance in mid - to - late May [1].