Group 1 - The EU leaders' visit to Beijing aims to seek cooperation amidst the backdrop of Trump's global tariff policies, which have had widespread implications for multiple countries [2][3] - Trump's decision to lower tariffs on the EU is seen as a significant concession, with potential agreements resembling those made with Japan, where tariffs could be reduced from 30% or 50% to 15% [3][5] - The EU's strategic significance as one of the world's three major economies means that any consensus reached with China could significantly impact Trump's global tariff strategy [2][8] Group 2 - Trump's recent statements indicate a fatigue with ongoing tariff negotiations, suggesting a readiness to implement a 15% tariff on most countries by August 1 [5][16] - The agreement with Japan, which includes substantial commitments to increase imports of U.S. goods, has faced criticism and may set a precedent for similar demands on the EU, potentially leading to internal dissent within Europe [8][10] - Key EU nations, particularly Germany and France, are resistant to compromising with the U.S., with France's Macron advocating for greater European strategic autonomy [13][16] Group 3 - The evolving geopolitical landscape necessitates that Europe prepares for a more assertive role, as Trump's tariff policies may no longer yield the desired effects [16][18] - The upcoming U.S.-China trade negotiations could further influence the dynamics of global trade and the EU's position within it, highlighting the importance of finding a balance in future negotiations [16][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - Last week's view was that the Northern Hemisphere's consumption peak season could support the market to some extent, but the supply pressure would gradually increase later, and the upside space was limited. This week, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly stronger trend in the second half of the week due to tariff negotiations and geopolitical factors. The short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by tariff negotiations and geopolitical disturbances, while the long - term view remains bearish due to strong supply and the fading consumption peak season [8]. - The crude oil fundamentals show that the East market's month - spread is strong due to domestic oil storage, and diesel leads the refined oil cracking. The US gasoline demand has slumped during the peak season, indicating poor US consumption ability. The domestic anti - involution has little impact on crude oil, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations and the final tax rates [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Views - Last week's view was that the consumption peak season could support the market, but the supply pressure would increase later. This week, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly stronger trend in the second half due to tariff negotiations. The short - term is affected by tariff and geopolitical factors, and the long - term is bearish [8]. - Key points include the strong East market month - spread, weak US gasoline demand, little impact of anti - involution on crude oil, and attention to tariff negotiations [8]. 2. Weekly Highlights - **East - West Market Spread Differentiation**: Western market spreads (WTI and Brent) are falling, while the East market spreads are strong, related to China's imports [12]. - **China's Inventory Increase**: China's crude oil implied inventory from March to June 2025 reached a new high in recent years. The increase is due to price drops and strategic storage, which boosts the East market's month - spread [15]. - **Diesel Cracking Leading**: Diesel cracking leads the refined oil cracking market, with all regional 211 cracking (higher diesel proportion) stronger than 321 cracking [18]. - **Global Spot Cracking**: Diesel cracking is strong, while gasoline cracking is downward, corresponding to weak US gasoline consumption. The long - term supply reduction of Saudi and Russia supports diesel cracking [20]. - **Global Diesel Inventory**: Diesel inventories in the US and China are at multi - year lows, while the inventory in Northwest Europe is neutral, and Singapore's middle distillate inventory is declining [23]. - **US Gasoline Demand**: US gasoline demand slumped during the peak driving season, with inventory being neutral. Low demand at current prices deepens the expectation of poor US consumption in the second half of the year [26]. - **Domestic Anti - Involution**: It has little impact on crude oil supply. If it occurs in refineries, it may be bearish for crude oil but bullish for chemical by - products [29]. - **Tariff Negotiations**: The US has made progress in some tariff negotiations. Attention should be paid to the results and final tax rates, which may affect the US economy and Fed policies [30]. - **North American Hurricane Forecast**: This year's hurricane activity is expected to be 60% above average, which may disrupt supply. Currently, there is no hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, but there is a potential cyclone [32]. 3. Price, Spread, and Cracking - **Crude Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: Multiple charts show the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC, WTI, Brent, etc. [35][52] - **Crude Oil Positions**: The positions of WTI and Brent futures and options are presented, including those of management funds, producers, etc. [37][40] - **Crude Oil Futures Structure and Month - Spread**: The futures structure and month - spread of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC are shown [43][46] - **Cross - Market Spreads**: Cross - market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, are presented [49][52] - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi's official selling prices (OSP) for different grades of oil to different regions in August and July are provided, showing price changes [59] - **Refined Product Prices and Cracking**: The prices and cracking spreads of refined products, including gasoline, diesel, etc., in different regions are presented [64][72] 4. Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global Crude Oil Supply**: The supply of global, non - OPEC, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil is shown, with forecasts [85] - **Non - OPEC and OPEC Supply by Country**: The supply of non - OPEC countries (US, Russia, China, etc.) and OPEC countries (Saudi, Iraq, etc.) is presented [88][94] - **Global Rig Count**: The number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally is shown [100] - **Refinery Shutdowns**: The shutdown volumes of CDU and FCC units globally and in different regions are presented [106][108] - **Global Crude Oil Demand**: The demand of OECD, non - OECD, and global crude oil is shown, with forecasts [110] - **Crude Oil Inventory**: The inventories of the US, OECD, and other regions, including commercial and strategic inventories, are presented [119] - **EIA Balance Sheet**: The EIA's supply, consumption, and balance data for 2025 and 2026 are provided [140] 5. EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA Weekly Report Main Data**: Data on crude oil production, commercial inventory, refinery utilization rate, etc., are presented [155] - **Supply and Demand Data**: Data on the production of various refined products, refinery demand, terminal demand, and inventory are provided [158][164][167] - **Inventory Data**: Data on crude oil and refined product inventories, including commercial and strategic inventories, are presented [173][176] - **Import and Export**: Not detailed in the remaining content

Report Summary - The report is an asphalt weekly report released by AVIC Futures on July 25, 2025 [2] - The current asphalt fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production and operating rate on the supply side decreased, while the shipment volume on the demand side increased slightly. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the decrease in production, indicating poor sales for refineries, and the social inventory increased slightly, suggesting weak downstream demand [6] - Crude oil currently lacks a core driving factor. Seasonal peak - season consumption demand and improved macro - risk sentiment provide some upward momentum, but OPEC+ continuous production increase suppresses the oil price rebound expectation. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate widely in a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern. The asphalt supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations will dominate the market trend [6] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the range of 3550 - 3700 yuan/ton for the BU2509 contract [7] Multi - empty Focus - The multi - factors for asphalt are marginal improvement in supply - demand and low inventory, while the empty factors are lower - than - expected demand and high supply [10] Macro Analysis Trade Agreements - China and the US will hold a new round of economic and trade talks from July 27 - 30 in Sweden [11] - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement on July 23, including issues such as a 15% tariff and supply - chain cooperation [11] - The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on $93 billion worth of US products on July 24. The EU plans to merge two retaliatory tariff lists into one [11] - US President Trump said on July 23 that the US will impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most other countries [11] Oil Market Forecasts - OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. It also maintains economic growth forecasts for this year and next year. In June, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day [12] - IEA lowers the 2025 average oil demand growth forecast from 720,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 740,000 to 722,000 barrels per day. It raises the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 1.8 million to 2.1 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 1.1 million to 1.3 million barrels per day [12] - The OPEC monthly report is relatively neutral, while the IEA report is relatively pessimistic, maintaining the expectation of crude oil supply surplus [12] Data Analysis Supply - In June, OPEC's crude oil production was 27.237 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 221,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, it is still lower than the production increase plan [13] - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt weekly production was 516,000 tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in refinery maintenance plans led to a slight decline in production, but there is potential for a seasonal rebound in the third quarter [15] - As of July 23, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 28.8%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The decline was more obvious in South China and Shandong. The reasons include refineries adjusting production plans and seasonal demand disturbances [24] Demand - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 415,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The shipment volume has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks but is still lower than that at the beginning of June, indicating a phased weakening of demand due to southern rainfall [25] - As of July 25, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 14.46%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was flat in most regions this week [28] Import and Export - In June, domestic asphalt imports were 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons (5.51%) and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. The cumulative imports from January - June were 1.725 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.53% [35] - In June, domestic asphalt exports were 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons. The cumulative exports from January - June were 279,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 53.36% [38] Inventory - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the decrease in production, indicating poor sales for refineries [48] - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,000 tons. The increase was due to the impact of typhoons and rainfall in the southern region on demand [55] Spread - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 514.2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.9 yuan/ton. As of July 23, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.94, and as of July 24, the asphalt basis was 133 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread declined this week due to the phased weakening of asphalt fundamentals [60]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's second factory in Kumamoto, Japan, is delayed until the first half of 2029 due to weakened orders from major clients and the need for local traffic improvements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Factory Development Timeline - TSMC's first factory in Kumamoto is set to begin production in late 2024, focusing on 12/16nm and 22/28nm chips, with a monthly capacity of approximately 55,000 wafers [1]. - The second factory's construction is postponed to 2025, with production of 6/7nm chips expected to start by the end of 2027, bringing total monthly capacity across both factories to over 100,000 wafers [1][2]. Group 2: Reasons for Delay - The delay in the second factory's timeline is attributed to a lack of urgent demand for advanced processes from Japanese clients, despite government support for AI initiatives [3]. - TSMC's increased investment in Arizona, totaling $165 billion, is prioritized to meet the strong demand for AI chips in the U.S., impacting the urgency of the Kumamoto factory [3]. Group 3: Financial Aspects - The total investment for both Kumamoto factories is approximately 2.96 trillion yen, with the Japanese government providing up to 1.2 trillion yen in subsidies [4].

Core Insights - Brazil's establishment of a tax office in Beijing is a strategic move aimed at reshaping South America's geopolitical landscape and reducing U.S. influence [1][5][12] Group 1: U.S.-Brazil Relations - The U.S. government, under Trump, threatened to increase tariffs on Brazilian goods from 10% to 50%, which is a significant escalation [3][5] - This threat was intended to pressure Brazil, but instead, it strengthened President Lula's resolve to pursue an independent strategy [5][11] Group 2: Economic Strategy - The tax office is part of a broader strategy to attract Chinese investment and facilitate the ambitious "Two Oceans Railway" project, which aims to connect Brazil's Santos port to Peru's Pacific port [7][9] - The railway project is expected to generate over $100 billion in economic benefits annually and significantly alter trade routes in South America [9][12] Group 3: China-Brazil Cooperation - Brazil's trade with China reached $188.1 billion in 2024, compared to $92 billion with the U.S., indicating a shift towards deeper economic ties with China [13] - The establishment of the tax office signals Brazil's readiness to eliminate technical barriers for Chinese investment, enhancing cooperation [10][16] Group 4: Political Implications - The move to establish the tax office and pursue the railway project demonstrates Brazil's ambition to assert its leadership in South America and reduce dependency on U.S. trade routes [12][16] - However, Brazil faces internal political instability and external pressures from the U.S., which could impact the success of these initiatives [13][14]

全球地缘政治剧烈变动，让2025成为宏观对冲基金"大年"——全球最大对冲基金公司桥水的旗舰宏观对冲基金Pure Alpha，在今年上半年收获17% 丰厚回报。另一家知名宏观对冲基金公司EDL Capital的全球机会策略基金，同期回报率更高达26%。 7月24日，美国桥水首席投资官在更新2025二季度市场观点时，在开篇就强调：当前世界正经历的格局转变，是桥水创立以来最具颠覆性的变化。 他还指出，桥水在分析投资者面临的"新常态"时，将"新的地缘政治与宏观经济范式"列为最关键的三组核心变量之一，放在首位。 为了帮大家学会从市场视角读懂地缘政治，我们邀请海外资管机构Clocktower的首席策略师王凯文，担任8月17日在上海举行的Alpha季度闭门私 享课主讲嘉宾。在此次闭门课中，王凯文老师将深入解析地缘政治投资分析的核心方法论与约束限制分析框架，分享他提炼出的五条最关键经验 教训，帮到场的Alpha会员和见闻大师课会员们从全球市场的角度读懂地缘政治，看清地缘政治背后的主导逻辑与关键趋势，前瞻大类资产中长 期走势，助力个人的关键决策。 举行这场以"地缘"为主题的闭门课，源自很多用户的强烈要求：今年以来的市场变化，让 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Chinese Manufacturers' Association announced that Wu Jiezhen will become the CEO starting August 1, 2025, aiming to lead the association towards new milestones [1] Group 1: Leadership Transition - Wu Jiezhen has nearly 30 years of service in the Hong Kong Customs, holding various enforcement and management positions [1] - She has experience in tax protection, drug enforcement, intellectual property protection, import and export control, and anti-smuggling enforcement [1] - Wu has previously been seconded to the Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau and the Security Bureau for government policy research and formulation [1] Group 2: Strategic Vision - The association's president, Lu Jinrong, welcomed Wu's appointment, highlighting her extensive cross-disciplinary knowledge and leadership skills [1] - Wu is expected to inject new thinking into the association, enhancing its role as an "enabler" and "connecting bridge" for local and mainland enterprises [1] - Wu emphasized the need for the association to improve its adaptability and foresight in response to geopolitical and trade protection uncertainties [1] Group 3: Future Initiatives - Wu plans to leverage her past experiences to deepen policy initiatives, optimize services, and expand international networks [1] - The goal is to assist the industry in navigating transformative waves and contribute to the high-quality development of Hong Kong and the nation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The black varieties in the domestic market have risen significantly, bringing a positive atmosphere to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" issued on July 20th has made coal and coal - chemical products favored by the market. The rise in futures prices has led to concentrated replenishment in the industrial chain, and the polyester industry has seen a reduction in inventory pressure and support for near - month contracts of polyester raw materials [1][2]. - The oil market is currently in a stage of coexistence of long and short factors. Crude oil supply is gradually increasing, while the strength of diesel continues. Different energy and chemical products have different trends, with some being affected by cost, some by supply - demand relationships, and others by macro - environment and geopolitical factors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The energy and chemical market was boosted by key factors such as "anti - involution" and "stable growth" on Tuesday. Iron ore futures reached a five - month high, and several glass and soda ash varieties hit the daily limit. The US Treasury Secretary will hold the third - round talks with China next week, possibly discussing China's purchase of crude oil from Russia [1]. 2. Sector Logic - The sharp rise of domestic black varieties has brought benefits to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" has made coal and coal - chemical products popular. The rise in futures prices has led to replenishment in the polyester industry, with some enterprises having a filament sales - to - production ratio of up to 1000%, reducing inventory pressure and supporting polyester raw material near - month contracts [2]. 3. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - It operates under pressure at high levels, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The current situation is a balance between strong refinery operations and supply pressure, with oil prices expected to fluctuate. The Brent first - line monthly spread has dropped from a maximum of $1.77/barrel on June 19th to $0.8/barrel [1][8]. LPG - The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3]. Asphalt - The spot price of major producers has fallen, and the high - valued asphalt futures price has declined following crude oil. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the accumulation of Asian crude oil floating storage are putting pressure on asphalt prices. The current asphalt is over - valued compared to other products, and its price is expected to decline [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - There is a large downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the decrease in power - generation demand are negative factors [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows crude oil and oscillates weakly. The supply is expected to increase and demand to decline, and it is affected by green - fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution [12]. Methanol - Boosted by the coal sector, methanol oscillates and strengthens [3]. Urea - There is a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment is boosted, and exports support the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Ethylene Glycol - Supported by the macro - environment and the rise of the coal - chemical sector, it is affected by the restart of domestic devices and the concentration of incoming goods [18][19]. PX - Although the cost raw materials are weak, the domestic commodity sentiment is warm. It lacks upward drivers and is expected to oscillate [13]. PTA - It has limited drivers and is affected by cost and macro - sentiment. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and processing fees are under pressure [14]. Short - Fiber - There are limited industrial contradictions, and it follows cost fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and the inventory has slightly increased [21]. Bottle Chip - The increase in polymerization cost supports the valuation. It is expected to follow cost fluctuations [22]. PP - Driven by factors such as stable growth, infrastructure expectations, and the rise of coal, it oscillates and rises [3]. Propylene - It had a good first - day performance and may oscillate after a significant increase [3]. Plastic - Supported by factors such as stable growth in the petrochemical industry, infrastructure expectations, and coal, it oscillates and strengthens [3]. Pure Benzene - The balance sheet has improved, but port inventory has started to accumulate again. It is expected to oscillate horizontally [14]. Styrene - It follows the market sentiment and may oscillate strongly in the short term. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the port inventory has increased [17][18]. PVC - The expectation of cost increase is strong, and it is cautiously optimistic in the short term. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals are under pressure [35]. Caustic Soda - Driven by strong expectations but weak in reality, it has a weak rebound. The market sentiment is warm, but the spot price has reached a peak [36][37]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.84 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 - month spread being 40 with a change of - 20 [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis value, change, and number of warehouse receipts. For example, the basis of asphalt is 236 with a change of 38, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300 [39]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 438 with a change of - 84, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread being 331 with a change of - 26 [40].

Group 1 - The CEO of Texas Instruments (TXN.O) stated that tariffs and geopolitical factors are disrupting and reshaping global supply chains [1]

前言 7月21日，美国财长贝森特在一档电视节目中公开喊话，要求中方在即将到来的第三轮中美谈判中答应两件事，否则将面临高达100%的二级关税。 除此之外，贝森特还对欧盟各国施压，要求他们跟随美国一起行动，但换来的却是这些盟友无声的沉默。 那么贝森特要求的这两件事是什么？中方又是如何应对的？ 整个谈判的气氛是积极友好的，双方都希望通过合作来缓解贸易摩擦，为全球经济复苏贡献力量。 这些谈判不仅有助于推动中美关系的稳定，也对全球经济的稳定与发展起到了积极作用，即使双方存在不少分歧，双方也一直致力于通过平等、互利的方式 解决问题。 但现在贝森特的突然发难，无疑是在破坏这种谈判的良好气氛，他在谈判中将一个完全与双边贸易无关的问题——石油进口，提出作为中美谈判的前提条 件，这不仅让人觉得不合时宜，更像是一种不合理的干涉。 俄罗斯和伊朗作为主权国家，他们和中国之间的石油贸易是基于平等互利、相互尊重的原则进行的，完全符合国际法和国际准则，美国没有权利要求中国在 没有任何依据的情况下放弃这种正常的贸易往来。 贝森特的要求 7月21日，美国财政部长贝森特在一档电视节目中提出了两个让人难以理解的要求：要求中国在即将举行的第三轮中美谈 ...