1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank indicates there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The pre - released policies are mainly "broad - credit" in effect, and the exchange rate does not strongly constrain interest rate cuts. The large - scale maturity and repricing of long - term deposits in 2026 will help stabilize the net interest margin [3] - Deposit repricing supports the space for interest rate cuts, but the bond market also needs to pay attention to the diversion effect of the stock market on matured deposits. The proportion of non - bank deposits may reach a new high, which is related to the form and rhythm of the stock market [3] - The year - on - year increase in the US core CPI in December last year was the same as the previous month. The risk of re - inflation is temporarily limited, and the impact of the US tax - cut policy on inflation remains to be observed [3] - Powell is facing a criminal investigation. The decision of the grand jury may be the key variable affecting the uncertainty of the Fed's subsequent decision - making process and the volatility of US Treasury bonds [3] - Geopolitical risks have caused oil price fluctuations. There are also changes in the prices and indicators of various domestic products such as agricultural products, industrial products, and metals [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - frequency Data Scan - The repricing of time deposits supports the space for interest rate cuts. In 2025, with a 10BP cut in the LPR, the bank's net interest margin remained stable, and this effect should be further enhanced in 2026. However, the bond market needs to pay attention to the impact of the stock market on the diversion of matured deposits [3] - The year - on - year increase in the US core CPI in December last year was flat compared to the previous month. The risk of re - inflation is temporarily limited, and the impact of the US tax - cut policy on inflation remains to be seen. Powell's criminal investigation may affect the volatility of US Treasury bonds [3] - In the week of January 16, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.45% week - on - week and decreased by 20.75% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables decreased by 1.44% week - on - week and increased by 6.49% year - on - year. There were also changes in the prices and indicators of other products such as cement, iron ore, and crude oil [3] 3.2 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report presents data on the growth rate of time and other deposits, the relationship between LPR and bank net interest margin, and the proportion of non - bank deposits, as well as data on the ratio of US currency in circulation to GDP and personal consumption, and the relationship between US non - farm weekly wages and core CPI [11][16] - It also shows the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in various high - frequency indicators, including food, other consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, real estate, and shipping [21][22] 3.3 Comparison of High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends - The report provides multiple sets of charts to show the relationship between high - frequency indicators such as copper spot price, crude steel daily output, and various price indices, and important macroeconomic indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, and fixed - asset investment [24][29][32] 3.4 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - It includes charts showing the relationship between US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth, the number of first - time unemployment claims and the unemployment rate, US same - store sales growth and PCE year - on - year, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes or cuts by the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank in the derivatives market [94][102][105] 3.5 Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends (in terms of month - on - month increases) of high - frequency indicators such as the commodity trading area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, LME copper spot settlement price, and crude steel daily output [108][110][114] 3.6 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - It presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [157][162]

Economic Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.29%, Nasdaq down 0.66%, and S&P 500 down 0.38% for the week [1] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 up 1.09%, Germany's DAX 30 up 0.14%, and France's CAC 40 down 1.23% [1] - The upcoming week will focus on U.S. GDP data, PCE inflation data, and consumer confidence index, which are expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction [3] Corporate Earnings - The second week of the U.S. earnings season will feature major tech companies like Netflix and Intel, along with industry leaders such as Johnson & Johnson, Abbott, and Halliburton reporting their earnings [4] Commodity Market - Oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude up 0.54% to $59.44 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.25% to $64.13 per barrel, driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions in Iran [5] - Gold futures for January delivery increased by 2.18% to $4588.40 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 11.69% to $88.09 per ounce, amid geopolitical tensions and market volatility [6] European Economic Outlook - The Eurogroup finance ministers' meeting and the EU finance ministers' meeting are set to discuss fiscal stimulus policies, particularly Germany's fiscal measures, which are crucial for the Eurozone's economic growth outlook [7] - The European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting minutes will be released, with expectations that there will be no interest rate changes this year, but discussions on potential future rate hikes may be of interest [7] Upcoming Economic Data - Key macroeconomic data releases next week include the Eurozone and Germany's January ZEW economic sentiment index, as well as manufacturing PMI data for France, Germany, and the Eurozone [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the dollar index is likely to strengthen for the third consecutive week, supported by strong U.S. economic data and reduced expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Recent U.S. economic data shows that initial jobless claims were significantly lower than expected, indicating a resilient labor market, which has contributed to the dollar's upward momentum [2] - Kansas City Fed President Esther George emphasized the need to maintain interest rates at levels that continue to restrict the economy to further curb inflation, highlighting the Fed's independence and decentralized governance structure as institutional advantages [2] Group 2 - In the technical analysis of February gold futures, the next bullish price target for closing is to break through the strong resistance level of $4750.00, while the bearish target is to push prices below the strong support level of $4400.00 [3] - The first resistance level is identified at the historical high of $4650.50, followed by $4675.00; the first support level is at Thursday's low of $4584.50, with the next support at $4550.00 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third week of January, the decline in food prices widened, and the macro - positive factors were basically digested. The upward trends of commodity futures and spot prices narrowed. - In terms of inflation, the decline in the food price index widened, and the supporting effect of pork on the index narrowed. - In terms of exports, container shipping demand remained stable. Except for the continued increase in freight rates on the North American route, other routes showed corrections. - In terms of investment, while the prices of rebar and coal continued to rise slightly month - on - month, the decline in cement prices continued to expand, and asphalt production remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The release of incremental infrastructure demand was still mild. - In terms of real estate, due to the impact of new policies, the transactions of new and second - hand houses increased month - on - month. - For the bond market, the PMI and import - export data in December exceeded expectations, showing a year - end data sprint characteristic. The Q4 economic data to be released on the 19th is expected to be strong, with GDP likely to reach around 5%. There may be a tail - end acceleration in production in December. - The macro - policy positives around the New Year's Day holiday have been basically digested, and with stricter financing supervision, the equity and commodity markets cooled this week. Looking ahead, during the key "good start" period in January, production and investment are expected to continue to gain momentum, and the PMI at the end of the month may still rise slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of strong data on market expectations [4][37]. Summary According to the Directory Inflation - related - The decline in food prices widened. This week (January 10 - 16), the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.65% and 0.73% month - on - month respectively, with the decline expanding. - Pork prices rose moderately, with the national average wholesale price of pork increasing by 0.45% month - on - month. Fruit prices rebounded from a decline, rising by 0.7% [4][10][37]. Import - export related - Container shipping prices showed a split trend, with the CCFI index rising by 1.3% month - on - month and the SCFI index falling by 4.5% month - on - month. In response to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the cargo volume in the export container shipping market increased slightly, and the freight rates of different routes showed different trends. - Bulk shipping weakened. The BDI and CDFI indices both saw an expansion in their declines [4][15][37]. Industry - related - Coal prices continued to rise. Although the daily consumption of coastal power plants decreased after reaching a peak, the heating and replenishment demand increased, and the rigid demand for procurement in the building materials and chemical industries provided support. - The increase in rebar prices slightly expanded. Supported by phased replenishment and infrastructure project rush - work, the apparent demand for rebar rebounded, but the terminal demand has not substantially recovered. - The asphalt production rate increased month - on - month, but there were regional differences in demand. - The increase in copper prices narrowed. The continued rise was supported by factors such as loose liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks, but the increase was restricted due to factors such as the Fed's statement and volatile oil prices. - The glass futures market turned from rising to falling, and the spot inventory decreased [16][18][22]. Investment - related - The decline in cement prices expanded, with the cement price index decreasing by 1.20% week - on - week on average. The supply and demand in the national cement market were both weak, with regional differences. - The transactions of new and second - hand houses showed a slight recovery. From January 9 - 15, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities increased by 26% month - on - month and 7% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand houses increased by 17.3% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 13.4% [5][25][28]. Consumption - related - In the first week of January, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 32% year - on - year. From January 1 - 11, the retail sales volume of the passenger car market was 328,000 units, with a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 42%. - Oil prices maintained a moderate increase. As of January 16, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.25% and 0.5% respectively month - on - month, with the increase narrowing [3][31].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in bank deposit interest rates is leading to decreased enthusiasm among depositors, with many opting to withdraw their savings for investment or consumption instead [1][3][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Declining Deposit Rates - Banks are lowering deposit rates to encourage depositors to invest and consume, thereby stimulating economic growth [3]. - The loan market remains sluggish, prompting banks to reduce deposit rates to lower financing costs for businesses and homebuyers, aiming to revive loan demand [3]. - By decreasing deposit rates, banks can widen the interest rate spread between deposits and loans, enhancing their performance and ability to withstand systemic risks [3]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Depositor Behavior - The current deposit interest rates are perceived as too low, leading depositors to feel that saving money is not worthwhile, with some choosing to keep cash at home or spend it on consumption [5]. - Rising inflation rates mean that deposit interest rates are failing to keep up, eroding the purchasing power of deposited funds over time [5]. - An increasing number of investment channels, such as stocks, funds, and bank wealth management products, offer higher returns than fixed-term deposits, prompting depositors to withdraw funds for these investments [5]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - For risk-averse investors, it is advisable to maximize deposit interest rates by choosing private banks, large time deposits, or long-term fixed deposits [7][9]. - For those who can tolerate some risk, a diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, including a mix of fixed-income products, low-risk investments, and medium-risk assets like equity funds [9].

劳动力市场方面，就业状况总体稳定。十二个辖区中有八个报告招聘活动未发生显著变化。报告指出，企业当前更多是在填补既有岗位的空缺，而非大规模 新增职位。技术工人、医疗和工程领域的人才短缺问题持续存在，但员工的跳槽率有所下降。一个值得注意的趋势是，多个辖区的企业正在探索人工智能技 术的应用，其主要目的在于提升生产效率与优化未来的人力资源配置，目前该技术对就业的直接替代影响尚属有限。工资增长保持中等速度，多数企业反馈 薪资增速已趋向"正常化"。 去年，美联储累计降息七十五个基点，以应对劳动力市场可能出现的疲软。但在去年十二月的货币政策会议上，美联储释放出暂停的信号，倾向于在通胀形 势出现进一步明确改善前，将政策利率维持在百分之三点五至三点七五区间。金融市场普遍预期，美联储在即将召开的一月议息会议上将继续按兵不动。 美国消费支出在报告覆盖周期内普遍录得小幅增长，这主要得益于假日购物季的带动。然而，一个显著的分化现象是，高收入群体的消费表现明显强于中低 收入群体。后者对价格变动更为敏感，在非必需品和服务的支出上显得更为谨慎。 在备受关注的通胀问题上，由关税引致的成本压力成为所有辖区共同提及的焦点。部分企业表示，早期主要通 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's hesitation in nominating Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chairman adds uncertainty to the selection process, as he prefers Hassett to remain as a key economic advisor in the White House [1][2]. Group 1: Nomination Uncertainty - Trump expressed a desire for Hassett to stay in his current role, indicating that moving him could result in losing a significant economic spokesperson [2][3]. - Following Trump's comments, analysts speculate that Kevin Warsh has emerged as a leading candidate for the Fed Chair position, with Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha noting that this news positions Warsh as a top contender [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - After Trump's remarks, the dollar rebounded slightly from its intraday low, while the stock market shifted from gains to losses, reflecting market reactions to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed Chair nomination [4]. - The two-year Treasury yield increased by 2.6 basis points, reaching above 3.59%, indicating market adjustments to the evolving situation [4]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The search for a new Fed Chair occurs at a delicate moment for monetary policymakers, as the U.S. economy faces conflicting pressures [6]. - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, prompting calls within the Fed for rate cuts to support the job market, while inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, complicating the decision-making process [7][8]. - The new Fed Chair is expected to seek further rate cuts, aligning with Trump's preferences, but may face challenges in building consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [8].

Group 1 - The UK GDP is projected to grow by 0.3% in November 2025, driven by Jaguar Land Rover's recovery from a cyberattack, marking the fastest growth since June 2025 [1] - Industrial output increased by 1.1%, with the automotive sector experiencing a significant 25% rise, the largest monthly increase since July 2020 [1] - The services sector also performed better than expected, growing by 0.3% in November after a contraction of 0.3% in October [1] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank's chief economist Sanjay Raja suggests that the better-than-expected November data and reduced uncertainty regarding the budget may lead to stronger economic growth in early 2026 [2] - Despite promises from the Prime Minister and Chancellor to boost economic growth, there has been no substantial change in the UK economy 18 months after the Labour Party's election victory [2] - A survey indicated that UK businesses reached their highest level of pessimism in two years by the end of 2025, although there were signs of optimism in the real estate market in December 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that UK retail spending in December 2025 grew at its slowest pace in seven months, with growth below the inflation rate [1][2] - The British Retail Consortium reported a year-on-year retail sales growth of only 1.2% in December, down from 1.4% in November, marking the lowest growth since May 2025 [1] - Non-food sales remained flat before December 25, with electronic gifts performing worse than expected, reflecting consumer caution due to rising living costs [1] Group 2 - For the entire year of 2025, retail sales grew by 2.3%, but this was below the latest inflation rate of 3.2% and the estimated 3.4% for 2025, indicating a reduction in consumer purchasing [2] - Non-food sales in December saw a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, significantly lower than the 1.1% average growth over the past 12 months [2] - Barclays reported a year-on-year decline in consumer spending of 1.7% in December, following a 1.1% decline in November, suggesting a weak end to 2025 [2]

近日市场因韧性十足的劳动力市场数据以及通胀粘性对于美联储降息预期明显降温之际，美联储官员们 最新讲话所释放出的集体鹰派立场可谓令降息预期更加萎靡。货币政策立场长期以来温和鹰派的美联储 副主席菲利普.杰斐逊表示，基准利率已经非常接近既不刺激也不放缓经济的水平——这句话意味着在 副主席杰斐逊看来在2026年降息并不具备紧迫性，他强调，这使得美联储官员们能够在应对不断变化的 经济风险时处于有利位置。 近期多位美联储官员表达对于2026年货币政策的鹰派立场之际，正值"降息交易"主题就已经开始呈现出 明显的疲软态势。自12月的多项劳动力市场统计数据公布以来，叠加最新公布的11月PPI与12月CPI显示 美国通胀降温节奏缓慢，以及最新公布的美国零售销售额数据实现超预期增长，利率期货交易员们对于 美联储2026年降息预期可谓持续降温。 "CME美联储观察工具"显示，利率期货市场交易员们当前对于2026年美联储降息押注从2025年底曾经 定价的降息三次预期缩减至降息两次，且交易员们普遍押注2026年首次降息时机为6月，而不是此前押 注的3月。不过，"CME美联储观察工具"显示出的交易员降息预期仍然高于FOMC点阵图中值所显示 ...